Mountain Mafia [END]

[Jackofhearts2005]

... went at it not being sure he would succeed but trying anyway.

...describes everything meaningful I ever do in a game.

Depends. Maybe you don't even want to lynch Epi. You are just throwing shit in the fan so people look at the shit and think "LC is doing a lot of work. He civ".

In a universe with bad LC doing a fake lotta work, does he want to actually cause a mislynch or just spin his wheels?

DDL, why'd you vote nutella yesterday? Where's it gonna go today? Can you tell me a little bit about those town reads of yours?

I'm voting for Jack. Been having a bad feeling about him for a while, although it's hard to describe. I pointed out some posts that pinged me more, the rest is just gut.

LC gives me a bad gut feeling too, though it's weaker.

My greatest weakness as a townie is my difficulty distinguishing townies who are lazy/unable to put their reads into words and baddies.

Convince me you're a townie who is wrong and unable to put his reads into words and not a scummer who is lying.

-> lazy
-> wrong

Sorry I'm not biting your attempt to make me feel bad.

My current stance of scumhunting is that 99% of all scumhunting methods are snake oil.

I'll not give a long and elaborated analysis on you because I don't have one. Neither I intend to do a long and complicated ISO on you that will ultimately fuel my confirmation bias and make me suspect you more. I've lynched too many civs after ISOing them and concluding they were bad. I'll go by what gave me the feeling of you being bad, which is good enough. For now. Maybe.

This part is antitown and doesn't feel DDLish. Scumhunting methods are for suckers? You're a better player than that.

So what's going on? I don't know that you're bad but I know you aren't acting like I expect DDL to act so I'm not sure exactly what to do with that.

A rainbow! (Like you guys give a shit)


Jack
Nutella
LC
Quin
Kyle
[pretend this is light green]
Sloonei
Sprityo[/pretending]
[yallow]
Daisy
Eloh
Sig
Wilgy
Glor
Melk
Dom
MP
DDL[/yaloh]
Speed
Bob
Epi

I'm just having a fucking day at work. Ready to fight over nothing.

I look forward to hearing more from you and DDL and Jimmy.

My curiosity got the better of me and I took a look at your ISO even though I said I wouldn't.

Those posts called my attention.

May I ask you where all that negativity comes from? Are you feeling bad about how the civs are acting in this game?

Not at all. I've been super stressed out at work, basically. I'm doing four jobs: my current job, my old job, my lazy coworker's old job because management shoved her stuff onto me when she missed all her deadlines by like 200 days (not an exaggeration, literally over 200 days) and finally, on the day of my biggest deadline, my two jobs ago job. I asked my boss to talk to her boss and get me to only do 3 jobs. She did but forgot to mention he said no so I got shit for not doing the fourth job and then further shit for being "unprofessional" aka saying I don't have time to do other people's jobs on the eve of a big deadline. Then I worked three ten hour days and won't get overtime pay cause the company just changed the overtime policy regarding weeks with holidays. But whatever. I have a lot to be thankful for, career wise and otherwise. The four day weekend should mellow me out, too.

I actually think the civvies are doing a great job this game, at least for the first 24 pages. I don't ususally have this many town reads, let alone without a flip.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei
@colonialbob

What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?

I don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.

That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.

All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.

*votes kyle*

To borrow someone else's words:

Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything

Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.

Then later:

Speed with the sudden entrance. I like it.

Voting LC for now.

The opportunity arose to vote for LC and bob seized it. Because "science".

Spoiler: show

As for the cbob and mesk no-vote posts... they're empty filler. Neither of them are in any way real or substantial gameplay. There was nothing about mesk's "dirt" comment that should lead to any alignment decisions. IF you really feel the need to read into it, it indicates a general ignorance or the game structure, which doesn't show as good or bad. And I don't feel like it was even that. Does anyone disagree with this?

Yeah. There's at least as much content there as the Daisy guilt thing. Not gonna argue about my joke though.

(Catching up intermittently, posting as stuff catches my eye, so ignore if I'm outdated)

@Long Con care to address this point since you responded to the other quote of this post?

I don't understand what you are saying, can you phrase it differently please? I was saying that Epi's alignment conclusions about mesk, based on the "dirt" post, are not legit because the logic isn't there... you are comparing it to the Daisy guilt thing, but I can't figure out what you mean by your wording.

You said Epi's read of mesk was not legit because there wasn't anything in that post to get a read off of but didn't say something similar about the Spacedaisy votes because she said sorry she checked in and that apparently meant she felt guilty for being mafia. So I would like you to address that discrepancy.

PS boarded, will be back before EoD to at least skim and potentially change my vote.

This is closer to a real justification, but it feels like a reach. He's faulting LC for not pursuing an unrelated topic in the same manner he was pursuing Epi. The answer is tunnel vision. If this is the basis for cbob's vote, I'm not buying it. He would repeatedly cite LC's lack of an answer to this question as a reason for suspicion. I'm still not in love with this.

What do people think about Sloonei? GTH's, cases, whatever.

Lean town. From what little exposure I have seems like town Sloonei, I like the questions and prodding people. Not enough reads or firm statements that I recall to make me really solidify the town read though.

He started day 2 with a "town lean" on me. Let's see how I feel from grace.

Spoiler: show

Sorry, what with family time I don't really have the ability to go through and make good cases or long posts. Butt I'm following as best I can.

Reads (mostly gut):

Daisy
Speedchuck
Epi
Sloonei
Quin
JJJ
nutella
DDL
Eloh
Kyle
Mesk
Long Con
Jack
Sig

No reads on Dom, Wilgy, INH, sprit

Still green on a rainbow a short while later. This is an intriguing package of reads that deserves heavier scrutiny than I'm going to give it here. I'm particularly interested in his Jack and Elohcin reads, but there's a whole lot more going on than just that.

I don't like this sequence.

Sloonei

I don't feel you are genuine, and I think your go at Eloh was a try to score an easy lynch that people would find agreeable even if the result was no good.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I don't want to be on Eloh come day end. It could go on Sloonei.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

Here's my fall from grace! That's the extent of it, from what I can tell. I may be biased, but this seems a bit weak for the firm 180 bob pulled on me. We've established that I'm loose with my votes, have we not? Why is it far-fetched for me to move it off and on Eloh here? That's, like, what I do? And furthermore, why is this even a suspicious thing? What's the scum mindset behind me making these two posts about Elohcin back-to-back like that? This might be the most opportunistic vote in the game. Eloh and Epi were both on me at this time. Bob's vote #3, a good placement to lock me in as a lynch candidate without sending me straight to the gallows. This vote stinks. He followed it up with this, which I've already questioned him on because idgi. What do those words mean?

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

This was where I started to doubt Bob in real time. This is a wonky line of questioning. "Well if Sloonei's right about Eloh, why isn't he voting for her?", as if Town Sloonei should be certain that his read on Elohcin was correct, and it is suspicious that Sloonbeard would not follow through on such a convincing self-made read. Bogus line of inquiry. He's voting for me because I'm considering voting for Elohcin, then turning around to criticize me for not voting Elohcin. But that contradiction isn't deterring him as we creep toward the deadline:

Spoiler: show

Moreover I think the low-poster lynch strategy is ideal under these conditions.

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

There's no real effortful dialogue here. Just throwing more dirt on me. Also, as an aside:

Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy

I firmly believe Sloonei is good. He feels good. He's been thinking and he's working.

Tell me why you think he's bad.

ISO me I laid out reasons. I didn't like his Epi behavior day 1, didn't like his Eloh behavior today. My vote stays.

I don't remember seeing any mention of this.

Vote colonialbob.

[Long Con]

Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

[Quin]

Sloonei doesn't stop to recuperate. Sloonei jumps down an out of the blue players throat at his earliest opportunity.

This might be good Sloonei after all.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

[Sloonei]

I don't like this sequence.

Sloonei

I don't feel you are genuine, and I think your go at Eloh was a try to score an easy lynch that people would find agreeable even if the result was no good.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I don't want to be on Eloh come day end. It could go on Sloonei.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

immediately? My vote has been off of Eloh for like 6 hours. I specifically wanted Epi's thoughts on my specific case against Elohcin. He shot it down. But she's still a suspect. I have no reason to remove her from the pool.

Sorry, you're right, your vote swapped to Sprityo about 3 hours before that sequence (your last post prior to that sequence, actually). But I still don't like the justification of your vote, and the second bit seems too passive to me. Like you want somebody else to give you cover for swapping back and saving youraelf.

I forgot about this post. I dont get what you are saying, bob. I'm looking for somebody else to give me a reason to vote for Eloh? What's passive? I'm confused.

That post felt like you were inviting somebody to make a case against Eloh so you could better justify putting your vote back without having to push the case yourself. It's in the same vein as that Epi post I took issue with D1.

(That's both the benefit and drawback of playing with people you don't know... you may notice behaviors/tells those familiar with them may not, but you also may misinterpret things others have learned already.)

I see bob did give more of an explanation for this.
Nope. I want people to talk about Elohcin, as well as all the other suspects I name. That's why I name them, and it's why I might be accused of casting weak reads and being soft. Because, especially early in games, I'm more interested in gauging reaction than I am presenting a formal case. Once I have a solid read I'll put it in the thread, but it takes time to reach that point. I invite anyone and everyone to bring reasons to vote for Elohcin to the table. That's how the game works. I wasn't trying to weasel my way into a vote for her or anything like that.

I also guess that my "Epi behavior from Day 1" was that fence-sitting comment you made wayyyy back in the beginning of time. I completely disregarded that as a serious suspicion because it was so early and you seemed to have abandoned it and come around to read me as town.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei doesn't stop to recuperate. Sloonei jumps down an out of the blue players throat at his earliest opportunity.

This might be good Sloonei after all.

Told you so.

[Quin]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] Am I getting an ISO? You said you needed to look at me more closely.

[Spacedaisy]

So... what options are there for this lynch not happening? Obviously stuff like the Everest extra vote aren't a factor, because ties are randomized now. So.... the Big Mountain that can pardon a lynch? I should research before I post.

I think it's very clear that Sloonei knew he wasn't going to die if he was lynched. I assumed that he was the one who was lynched but didn't die. I'd have to double check the vote tally though.

[Quin]

So... what options are there for this lynch not happening? Obviously stuff like the Everest extra vote aren't a factor, because ties are randomized now. So.... the Big Mountain that can pardon a lynch? I should research before I post.

I think it's very clear that Sloonei knew he wasn't going to die if he was lynched. I assumed that he was the one who was lynched but didn't die. I'd have to double check the vote tally though.

Why do you think so?

[Spacedaisy]

Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.

[Sloonei]

Anyone want to/able to weigh in on what I just said about colonialbob? He's leapfrogged everyone else to the top of my suspects list.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Anyone want to/able to weigh in on what I just said about colonialbob? He's leapfrogged everyone else to the top of my suspects list.

I found what you said convincing.

[Sloonei]

I'm also still waiting for someone to explain why lynching Jack was a good idea.

[nutella]

What the hell?!??!

You can't kill a mountain. They're not even alive.

As my grandfather used to sing to the tune of "The Sound of Music," "The hiiiills are aliiiiive, and the mountains are dead!!"

[nutella]

Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

Hmm, okay, I buy this conclusion.

I also really like Sloonei's takedown of Bob. Good work.

[Sloonei]

Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

Hmm, okay, I buy this conclusion.

I also really like Sloonei's takedown of Bob. Good work.

thanks. why'd you vote for jack?

[Quin]

Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.

What if it wasn't tied?

[Marmot]

What the hell?!??!

You can't kill a mountain. They're not even alive.

As my grandfather used to sing to the tune of "The Sound of Music," "The hiiiills are aliiiiive, and the mountains are dead!!"

[Spacedaisy]

Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.

What if it wasn't tied?

Then it gets a little muddier and I need to look things over.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Wow you guys went ahead and vote me under no premise?

I could just not answer, is that better?

Gah. Whatever

-> no premise

Really.

[Spacedaisy]

Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.

I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.

This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.

Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?

2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?

These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.

Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.

[Spacedaisy]

Here are just a few relevant posts, I feel like I am missing one or two from earlier too...

Voting for me is a waste of time. Don't do it.

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

It's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.

I just think that if a player preemptively implies that lynching them will not result in their death and then we have a lynch which results in no death, they were probably being truthful.

This means then that Sloonei is the one who should have died. In order for that to be true either the player who has a vote worth two voted for him, did not vote for either of them, or voted for Jack who had a vote less than it seems because of Sutter Buttes.

I am left with two options. I was wrong about Nutella being the role whose vote is worth two (definite possibility, need to look over what originally led me to believe this) or Jack is bad.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

DDL's response to my grievances is a moving one. The specificity of the parallel drawn here, based on what happened in Turf Wars, when I was similar to a replacement (joining the game at Day 5), and led an erroneous lynch on him inspires (hi Quin) me to reconsider. It's not especially important that I was wrong then, but it's important that DDL remembered this incident and recollected it with such earnestness here. I believe him when he says he wants to stop me from doing that to him again, and I also grant that my meta perception of him (a civilian who thrives on pressure) could be out of date. I don't think the two of us have really played many games together since that first meeting in Economics. I don't endorse his lynch.

I'm not going to say I don't thrive on pressure anymore but...

I don't know where my meta stands anymore, frankly.

I just know it's different.

Also I'm not sure how that assesment of yours was accurate in the first place. That was my first game in the Syndicate. I was trying really hard to impress the new people and was excited about the way you and MP and Sloonei were playing. That game is an outlier in term of try-hardness for me.

[Spacedaisy]

Or the third, less likely option imo is Sloonei implied something untrue and got really lucky to have no death, meanwhile Jack survived a lynch and is most likely good, with a smaller chance of being Indy.

This seems the longest stretch to me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

Oh, come on! Even my joke got ninja'd? What is this, Naruto?

I'm out.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

It's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.

Why are you acting like civs don't care about self-preservation either?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

On the off chance of vote shenanigans...


Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.

Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.

Everyone else mostly null.

Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.

what is a legacy read

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I would have voted for Jack. My posts will absolutely validate that.

Thanks for saving me, scumbuddy. Good distancing.

This is really gonna throw 'em for a loop.

Crap, if Jack comes back bad if he gets lynched, then I'm going to look really bad. "I WOULD HAVE voted him but didn't, but he got lynched and was bad, and I swear I would have helped, guys, right?" LONG CON 4EVA!!!

I don't like how you are framing possible legit team analysis as a joke before the flip.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

We need information to go off here people!

Depends. If nobody dies again, we could argue we are extending the game's real time length. I feel like this is pro-civ, since it gives mafia more chances to look bad and vice-versa. A good example is what happened to Nutella.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Tho if someone dies in the night this positive effect is probably countered/nulified.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

In a universe with bad LC doing a fake lotta work, does he want to actually cause a mislynch or just spin his wheels?

Maybe he doesn't have control over it and is just putting his own survival as a priority.

Well i'l just describing how I play.

Tbh my read of LC at this point feels outdated and I already forgot why I suspected him. Might need to look at him again eventually.

This part is antitown and doesn't feel DDLish. Scumhunting methods are for suckers? You're a better player than that.

So what's going on? I don't know that you're bad but I know you aren't acting like I expect DDL to act so I'm not sure exactly what to do with that.

Ok so I was being over-dramatic. Apologies.

My point however, is not that scumhunting is for suckers, if that most scumhunting "tells" are smoke and mirrors in order to justify what is basically gut. Well I'm not sure if this applies to you people, but it applies to me. In the past, I'd suspect someone for a single scummy post, then I'd ISO them, do a very detailed analysis, and conclude they were the source of all evil on Earth. Then I would tunnel vision on them for tens of posts, and be so vocal I'd get at least one unlucky civ and one oppotunist baddie to follow me. Boom, mislynch.

Over time I realized I was full of shit most of the time and those tells were inneffective.

Now, here is what I currently do. I don't avoid tells ompletely because otherwise what is the point of signing up for mafia. But I'm like, super paranoid. I follow my gut and try to rationalize a little, but I don't rationalize too hard because it will probably lead to confirmation bias. I keep my suspicions soft so I can jump out of them before it's too late, and I listen to others more. If everyone disagrees with me, I assume chances are I'm just wrong. I give more value to vote analysis and role analysis because those are closer to exact science and I'm good at that (I even copied Gman's technicolor vote thing in a recent game). And I also try to spot things nobody else noticed, because that helps too.

Also I've had this stance for quite some time, possibly before I met you, so I have to say you thinking it's "anti-DDL" probably means you haven't paid enough attention to me until now.

The difference is that in this game, I'm trying to be more unapologetic about changing votes and following my gut, and attacking people at random times for things that might be insignificant. Like, I'm trying to be less diplomatic. Because I feel like this is more like how I play mafia at NF, and it's working there lately.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

Another possibility is Cristobal Colon just decided to stop last night's lynch. Because they are a dick.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

So... what options are there for this lynch not happening? Obviously stuff like the Everest extra vote aren't a factor, because ties are randomized now. So.... the Big Mountain that can pardon a lynch? I should research before I post.

I think it's very clear that Sloonei knew he wasn't going to die if he was lynched. I assumed that he was the one who was lynched but didn't die. I'd have to double check the vote tally though.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Problem is that in the Syndicate whenever I try to do my quick voting routine I get ambushed by 5 people demanding a well explained thesis on my vote. I'm not used to this.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm not voting for Sloonei or Nutella for the foreseeable future.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It makes sense that Sloonei put a lot of emphasis on the fact he was not preserving himself. If he is a civ that doesn't make sense. If he is bad it doesn't either. But if he is an unlynchable player, that is another story.

[Long Con]

Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.

I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.

This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.

Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?

2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?

These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.

Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.

Cristobal Colon (which I somehow missed in my tally of how no one got lynched) may have had to send in a lynch-stop without knowing which of the players in the "tie" were going to be lynched. It's conceivable that Civ Sloonei just saved baddie Jack, or vice-versa.

[Epignosis]

Not at all. I've been super stressed out at work, basically. I'm doing four jobs: my current job, my old job, my lazy coworker's old job because management shoved her stuff onto me when she missed all her deadlines by like 200 days (not an exaggeration, literally over 200 days) and finally, on the day of my biggest deadline, my two jobs ago job. I asked my boss to talk to her boss and get me to only do 3 jobs. She did but forgot to mention he said no so I got shit for not doing the fourth job and then further shit for being "unprofessional" aka saying I don't have time to do other people's jobs on the eve of a big deadline. Then I worked three ten hour days and won't get overtime pay cause the company just changed the overtime policy regarding weeks with holidays. But whatever. I have a lot to be thankful for, career wise and otherwise. The four day weekend should mellow me out, too.

[Epignosis]

We need information to go off here people!

This is information.

[colonialbob]

Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

[colonialbob]

Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.

@Sloonei
@colonialbob

What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?

I don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.

That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.

All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.

*votes kyle*

To borrow someone else's words:

Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything

Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.

If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Here are just a few relevant posts, I feel like I am missing one or two from earlier too...

Voting for me is a waste of time. Don't do it.

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

It's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.

I just think that if a player preemptively implies that lynching them will not result in their death and then we have a lynch which results in no death, they were probably being truthful.

This means then that Sloonei is the one who should have died. In order for that to be true either the player who has a vote worth two voted for him, did not vote for either of them, or voted for Jack who had a vote less than it seems because of Sutter Buttes.

I am left with two options. I was wrong about Nutella being the role whose vote is worth two (definite possibility, need to look over what originally led me to believe this) or Jack is bad.

I'm not a fan of the "no dumping" rules because you end up having cases like this where you assume things and the people you assume them about can't comment on the specifics but Nutella won't be able to help voting for me or not voting for me tomorrow, which is a comment on this anyway.

So you have this game where people claim without claiming and its subjective how blatant too blatant is.

I prefer safeclaims like Mass Effect had to both have an open setup and also get rid of this conundrum.

[colonialbob]

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

This was where I started to doubt Bob in real time. This is a wonky line of questioning. "Well if Sloonei's right about Eloh, why isn't he voting for her?", as if Town Sloonei should be certain that his read on Elohcin was correct, and it is suspicious that Sloonbeard would not follow through on such a convincing self-made read. Bogus line of inquiry. He's voting for me because I'm considering voting for Elohcin, then turning around to criticize me for not voting Elohcin.

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

[Sloonei]

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

Vizzini.jpg

It's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.

Why are you acting like civs don't care about self-preservation either?

That's not what I was acting like.

[colonialbob]

I don't like this sequence.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

immediately? My vote has been off of Eloh for like 6 hours. I specifically wanted Epi's thoughts on my specific case against Elohcin. He shot it down. But she's still a suspect. I have no reason to remove her from the pool.

Sorry, you're right, your vote swapped to Sprityo about 3 hours before that sequence (your last post prior to that sequence, actually). But I still don't like the justification of your vote, and the second bit seems too passive to me. Like you want somebody else to give you cover for swapping back and saving youraelf.

I forgot about this post. I dont get what you are saying, bob. I'm looking for somebody else to give me a reason to vote for Eloh? What's passive? I'm confused.

That post felt like you were inviting somebody to make a case against Eloh so you could better justify putting your vote back without having to push the case yourself. It's in the same vein as that Epi post I took issue with D1.

(That's both the benefit and drawback of playing with people you don't know... you may notice behaviors/tells those familiar with them may not, but you also may misinterpret things others have learned already.)

I see bob did give more of an explanation for this.
Nope. I want people to talk about Elohcin, as well as all the other suspects I name. That's why I name them, and it's why I might be accused of casting weak reads and being soft. Because, especially early in games, I'm more interested in gauging reaction than I am presenting a formal case. Once I have a solid read I'll put it in the thread, but it takes time to reach that point. I invite anyone and everyone to bring reasons to vote for Elohcin to the table. That's how the game works. I wasn't trying to weasel my way into a vote for her or anything like that.

I also guess that my "Epi behavior from Day 1" was that fence-sitting comment you made wayyyy back in the beginning of time. I completely disregarded that as a serious suspicion because it was so early and you seemed to have abandoned it and come around to read me as town.

I had, until I felt like you did the exact same thing Day 2 (which is more of a ping for me because there's more info). That's also why I added my meta comment - maybe this is normal town behavior for you and I just don't recognize it. I've seen behavior like this often be scummy but maybe that's a function of where I've played.

[Sloonei]

Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] , care to answer?

[colonialbob]

My point however, is not that scumhunting is for suckers, if that most scumhunting "tells" are smoke and mirrors in order to justify what is basically gut. Well I'm not sure if this applies to you people, but it applies to me. In the past, I'd suspect someone for a single scummy post, then I'd ISO them, do a very detailed analysis, and conclude they were the source of all evil on Earth. Then I would tunnel vision on them for tens of posts, and be so vocal I'd get at least one unlucky civ and one oppotunist baddie to follow me. Boom, mislynch.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] Nightblue

[Sloonei]

Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.

@Sloonei
@colonialbob

What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?

I don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.

That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.

All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.

*votes kyle*

To borrow someone else's words:

Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything

Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.

If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.

But you provide the "devil's advocate justifications" in the first place. My point is that this post presents options that either one of Epi or LC could be bad, but you did not commit to either one at ths time. You left both options open to yourself for the down the road.