Mountain Mafia [END]

[Sloonei]

I regret not pursuing colonialbob more over the last couple of days. I never heard a good argument in favor of him being town and I haven't changed my mind on him. Digging through Jay Mountain only strengthened my read. Does anybody have an argument for colonialbob to be town?

If you don't ignore ridiculously scummy behavior, there are well more suspects that deserve immediate lynch than there are remaining baddies. Bob is not one of them.

I don't particularly see Bob teamed with Jimmy.

I certainly don't see him teamed with my suspects Speedchuck and Sloonei.

[Elohcin]

I just went from 1 simple order this week to four orders (3 of them pretty elaborate) so I'm a little overwhelmed but thankful for such work so close to Christmas.

I think the theory of baddie teammates bussing jay is probably true. I'm guessing at least two jay voters are bad. All game, I've seen kyle as good. But now I'm second guessing. I have some motherly duties and some ingredient shopping to do and then I'm going to read through his posts again.

[dunya]

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... ch#p383906

If Long Con is a civilian, then is most likely means he is genuine in his suspicion of me.

If his suspicion is genuine, then his accusation that I am being deliberate and calculating in my dealings thus far should be one that he can logically explain.

Already done, but you want more words?

In other words, if I know what I'm doing (i.e., being deliberate in "setting up a long game"), and Long Con is calling me out on that, then he should be able to explain how my actions in the thread so far will benefit my team and me down the road. What is the long game and how am I expecting it to play out?

Uh, you pick two Civs and buddy them so they trust you and don't lynch you. Long game benefit: survival, and more likely to lynch Civs along the way. You intimidate Sloonei out of coming after you. Benefit: One less Civ coming after you; survival; more likely to lynch a Civ along the way.

If he can't answer that, then his suspicion isn't genuine, and he's trying to get a quick and easy Day 1 lynch out of the way.

Let's get this quick and easy Day 1 lynch out of the way, folks!

Point LC.

Epi is perhaps the best dancer on the site. There is nothing "quick and easy" about trying to mislynch him on Day 1. This feels like trying to scare away votes, not a legit attempt to scumhunt, which is exactly what Epi is already accused of doing with Sloonei.

Combined with suspicious nonlynchcandidate declarations, I think this is worthy of a vote.

PS: What is my tell?

can someone explain this post, I don't really understand. Was Jack agreeing with LC or Epi? It seems very strangely worded. He uses "mislynch", when lynching Epi would be ---- lynching him --- until the mod revealed what his alliance was. If he was saying Epi is worthy of a vote, why would he call it a "mislynch"? Am I missing something? Maybe lost in translation?

please explain "mislynch" use here. I've asked several times. Why did you choose to use the word "mislynch" when referencing Epi's lynching.

His response was simply "Cause that's what Epi was accusing LC of trying to do."

Yes, Epi was. He heavily implied it.

But look what Jack said "There is nothing "quick and easy" about trying to mislynch him on Day 1."

him, being Epi. He was making his OWN observation. He called it a MISLYNCH of Epi. I'm a language freak, I'm sticking to my guns in that any real townie would not have used mislynch in this context. I'm not saying never use the word, like Jack's smart links to previous games where he has used "mislynch" appropriately were. This context, should have been "lynch".

Guys, I'm sticking to my read here. Jack is scum. I won't try to shake it off, along with all other strange things (like how he defended sig, for something I don't think he could have been very aware of as it was happening---he replaced late into the Pirates game and tried to defend sig's lack of online presence and behavior with Jay saying it's not indicative of sig's alignments because look at Pirates. His timeframe of being online/offline wouldn't have been as obvious to Jack, who read the thread later) and other behavior such as how he only is now trying to change his replying frequency after I called him out of avoiding actually answering questions/Kyle did too (and colonialbob got the same vibe and meta'd from a previous scum game he's played in).

Jack is bad. Do what you will.

[dunya]

I'm sorry to drag this up again, but nutella's eod 4 reactions towards Jay was clear bussing to me imo. So I want to see how much weight my theory holds. Feel free to correct any misinformation I have gathered.

day 1 happened before any night powers were active yet so many options weren't on the table.

aha, you're right.

[Sloonei]

I'm sorry to drag this up again, but nutella's eod 4 reactions towards Jay was clear bussing to me imo. So I want to see how much weight my theory holds. Feel free to correct any misinformation I have gathered.

I'd be interested in this theory. How do you figure?

Also as has already been pointed, sutter buttes could not possibly have factorsd into the Day 1 lynch, as there had not yet been on a night on which they could activate their ability.

[dunya]

I'm sorry to drag this up again, but nutella's eod 4 reactions towards Jay was clear bussing to me imo. So I want to see how much weight my theory holds. Feel free to correct any misinformation I have gathered.

I'd be interested in this theory. How do you figure?

Also as has already been pointed, sutter buttes could not possibly have factorsd into the Day 1 lynch, as there had not yet been on a night on which they could activate their ability.

I'll quote specific things.

I guess I was heavily reliant on the prospect of Sutter Buttes being active for the other half of my theory.

I just don't like to cross someone off my scum list because everyone says it's a given. I find that wild and irresponsible (and I placed her highly on my town read the last 2 phases, so I feel like I should reach my own conclusions about her)

[dunya]

My daughter has informed me that Quin is a girl, Jimmy is mad and we like Goldy (Jack).

your daughter is smart tbh.

[Sloonei]

I feel you, dunya. It's entirely plaisible we all crossed nutella off our lists prematurely. Her behavior before the lynch was what did it for me, though, and not her reaction to it. She seemed to anticipate that a tie would happen. It's possible this was just a gambit that miraculously paid off. But the question of why she's still alive is a good one. I think there are answers thay don't have to involve her being scum, but it's still worth addressing.

[Sloonei]

I also did not get the sense that Jack and Jay are scum partners when I did my Jay ISO yesterday. I could be wrong for sure, but I came out of it feeling good about Jack. Which makes his stubbornness about me all the more frustrating right now.

[colonialbob]

I also did not get the sense that Jack and Jay are scum partners when I did my Jay ISO yesterday. I could be wrong for sure, but I came out of it feeling good about Jack. Which makes his stubbornness about me all the more frustrating right now.

Preaching to the choir, buddy.

The best way of summing up my voting yesterday is this:
I started off on Kyle because he had been pinging me and JJJ already had 4 votes while nobody else had more than 1. As several people have said, locking in a lynch suspect that early in the phase is generally not a great idea (obvious exceptions like revealed mafia not applying here). By the time I came back to the thread, nobody had followed my Kyle suspicion, so I went with my most consistent scumread, Speedchuck. Call it a gut read, whatever. Fact is I've been consistently reading him bad since roughly N2. Because that lasted fooooreeeeeeveeeeer the reasons aren't as fresh in my mind but the feeling of mafia was. If I have time this afternoon I'll sit down and ISO him and try to actually point out why I thought he was bad. But regardless, he was the player I most consistently read as mafia (after I felt you were basically cleared D2 and I got better feelings on Jack I think D3). Meanwhile a couple of players (mostly you) had laid out the JJJ case, which I mostly bought into, but which was also somewhat meta on a player that I've never played with (and I'm not a particularly meta-reliant player). So I stayed with my own read. Then Epi came and laid out a non-meta argument, which I also mostly bought into, and voted JJJ. That was the point I looked at the trains and noticed that my biggest townreads were on JJJ while several players who were neutral reads or worse were with me on speedchuck. That was enough to push me away from my top scumread to my second scumread.

[Sloonei]

What pinged you about Jay before the start of Day 4?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Keep doing what you're doing, Dunya.

*thumbs up*

[Jackofhearts2005]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

[Sloonei]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

Have you read my response to this?

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Long Con[/mention]

Where you at? Tell me what you think of all these baddies.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

Have you read my response to this?

[Sloonei]

Also I am a suspect to you because you believe I bussed Jay. How can you treat my line of suspicion as illegitimate? We're looking for the same thing; it's just our results that are different.

[dunya]

I still think Wilgy is holding back this game, but maybe he's the independent. I saw his Epi game where he was independent and it was different because there was role claiming (extremely interesting game to read btw--I forgot the theme now but it was cool as fuck, and I was surprised no one else role claimed at any point of the game...), but I see some similarities I guess.

I feel a little better about Eloh after reading some of her longer townie games.

I want to focus on speedchuck now and get a definite read on him, followed by nutella.

also I want to finish 3 papers and study for a test. and finish a brochure and financial plan for work. I know ya'll don't give a damn, but man, I suck

[Sloonei]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

Have you read my response to this?

click this link, win a prize

[dunya]

I feel kinda left out with these EoD phases, not seeing all these "three-way ties" as they were happening, who's online and sidelining, where are all the crazy votes going, who's saving who, etc. I know Marmot was looking for a possible co-host, but I really feel I can't be my ultimate level of efficient by missing the hours of EoD phases. Perhaps it would be worth looking into in the future that votes have to be posted itt and an unvote has to be posted as well before voting for someone else.

[Sloonei]

I feel kinda left out with these EoD phases, not seeing all these "three-way ties" as they were happening, who's online and sidelining, where are all the crazy votes going, who's saving who, etc. I know Marmot was looking for a possible co-host, but I really feel I can't be my ultimate level of efficient by missing the hours of EoD phases. Perhaps it would be worth looking into in the future that votes have to be posted itt and an unvote has to be posted as well before voting for someone else.

We generally try to encorce a code of announcing votes, but it doesn't always happen. It's a thing everyone should be in the habit of doing.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Nope. It's our job as responsible townies to suss out the honest suspicions from the false ones.

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

Townies can be uncertain, or wrong, or vote for mafia members not called JaggedJimmyJay. And it's possible not all of his teammates were on the bus.

Okay but here's the thing. Every time someone does this you say "but Jimmy probably told his team to bus him." You're not acting like you want use to figure it out. To Bob's point, you're acting like there's nothing to see.

Why wouldn't his teammates be on the bus? You talking about inactives or people who decided to vote elsewhere?

If Bob is bad with Jimmy and was told to bus Jimmy, why did he wait until we had an hour or so to go to do so?

You wanna see a cred building bus? That's Speed in Pirates bussing MP. What you're accusing Bob of and the timing of Bob's vote are entirely different.

[Jackofhearts2005]

A janitor in this game. Very interesting.

Though I suspect the Martian is involved with that. Too many secrets.

Going to bed now, will poke back after some sleep.

The surprise and unawareness of the nightkill mechanics in this game malakim displayed here appear genuine and believable to me. I think he's a townie who believed for a fleeting moment that we had a janitor in this game, or that the nightkill was carried out by Olympus Mons. If he was scum he would have been clued into their target and would presumably be aware of his team's full complement of abilities.

Meh. There had been no nightkills yet. Mal's surprise is not alignment indicative imo.

[Sloonei]

Question for Sloonei: if you think JJJ told his teammates to bus him D3, doesn't every suspicion of JJJ expressed D3 instantly become worthless because it's potential bussing?

Nope. It's our job as responsible townies to suss out the honest suspicions from the false ones.

Second: if all his teammates were bussing him why were there so many Wilgy and Speed votes until very late in the phase?

Townies can be uncertain, or wrong, or vote for mafia members not called JaggedJimmyJay. And it's possible not all of his teammates were on the bus.

Okay but here's the thing. Every time someone does this you say "but Jimmy probably told his team to bus him." You're not acting like you want use to figure it out. To Bob's point, you're acting like there's nothing to see.

Why wouldn't his teammates be on the bus? You talking about inactives or people who decided to vote elsewhere?

If Bob is bad with Jimmy and was told to bus Jimmy, why did he wait until we had an hour or so to go to do so?

You wanna see a cred building bus? That's Speed in Pirates bussing MP. What you're accusing Bob of and the timing of Bob's vote are entirely different.

I don't think he instructed his teammates to bus him. The word I've been using is invited. I think he recognized what the situation was, that he was a longshot to make it past Day 4, and he didn't want his teammates to get tangled up trying to save him. The way I see it going down is that he told his teammates in their secret lair not to worry about trying to keep him alive and if the opportunity arose to put some distance between themselves and him, take it. Not that it was imperative that they all bury him. I think Bob's behavior reflects this perfectly. He turned abruptly on Jay during Night 3/Day 4 after keeping him at arm's length all game prior, but he resisted actually voting for him until late in the day when the votes were starting to pile on (even if his vote was the "deciding" one, I'm not swayed. The writing was very visibly on the wall IMO). This is why I'm questioning him now on what was going through his head during that phase. I want him to convince me that his suspicion of Jay was real and not just him seizing the opportunity to look good.

You seem to agree with my premise. I'm not sure I understand why you are so unreceptive to the cases I am making.

[Sloonei]

A janitor in this game. Very interesting.

Though I suspect the Martian is involved with that. Too many secrets.

Going to bed now, will poke back after some sleep.

The surprise and unawareness of the nightkill mechanics in this game malakim displayed here appear genuine and believable to me. I think he's a townie who believed for a fleeting moment that we had a janitor in this game, or that the nightkill was carried out by Olympus Mons. If he was scum he would have been clued into their target and would presumably be aware of his team's full complement of abilities.

Meh. There had been no nightkills yet. Mal's surprise is not alignment indicative imo.

I'd still be open to an argument that Mal is bad, but I maintain my town read on him. The argument that Jay lynched Mesk to save Dom is completely bogus though.

[Jackofhearts2005]

How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?

If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.

No hesitation in supporting Dom's lynch. I remain opposed to the idea of lynching malakim.

Sloonei, you may have already covered this but I have real problems with this assumption.

What I've noticed with traditional distancing is that a lot of scum like to keep their suspicious partners as "suspects."

This means if the town is hunting for 2 baddies, putting a teammate 3rd from the bottom in your rainbow. This means saying that you'll vote for a teammate or that they're the best option but ultimately not voting for them.

Why do you think Jay is not doing the later to Mal? Jimmy says he'd lynch Mal now if it was EOD but no matter how many times he was pushed, he refused to actually do so.

That screams "scumbuddies" to me.

I agree. I just disagree that malakim is the likely teammate. Sig and colonialbob look like better choices to me, and I'm also open to DrWilgy.

Mostly disagree on Sig. He's not around to defend himself so shade is extra dangerous. I have always thought Jimmy's attack on Sig was unfair and I said as much.

Disagree on Bob. I think you're misinterpreting his "no CFD" comment which looked to be about votes, like yours, falling onto Wilgy for no good reason. The Bob case falls flat for me.

Strongly disagree on Wilgy cause all my suspects tried to lynch him yesterday instead of Jimmy.

[Jackofhearts2005]

How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?

If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.

No hesitation in supporting Dom's lynch. I remain opposed to the idea of lynching malakim.

Sloonei, you may have already covered this but I have real problems with this assumption.

What I've noticed with traditional distancing is that a lot of scum like to keep their suspicious partners as "suspects."

This means if the town is hunting for 2 baddies, putting a teammate 3rd from the bottom in your rainbow. This means saying that you'll vote for a teammate or that they're the best option but ultimately not voting for them.

Why do you think Jay is not doing the later to Mal? Jimmy says he'd lynch Mal now if it was EOD but no matter how many times he was pushed, he refused to actually do so.

That screams "scumbuddies" to me.

I agree. I just disagree that malakim is the likely teammate. Sig and colonialbob look like better choices to me, and I'm also open to DrWilgy.

Why do you disagree?

Why was Jimmy after Mesk so hard if a townie Mal lynch would have been just as good for him?

I just gave one of my reasons for reading Mal as town in the first of my three consecutive posts above.

I think you're exaggerating Jay's role in the Mesk lynch. I could be misremembering, but as I recall he was largely a follower on the bandwagon. He said more about Mesk than others, but only because we were making him talk the most. He seized the Mesk wagon because it existed. He was saving himself, not Dom.

The highlight of the Mesk lynch was Epi and Jimmy butting heads over which of the two to lynch. Jimmy ended up looking really bad over this and did not look really bad prior.

He absolutely pushed for Mesk to die over Mal, not himself.

[Jackofhearts2005]

No.

I explained my suspects in way too much detail there, but I also largely ignored Jay's Day 4 ISOs because I'm viewing them as pure, unfiltered wifom. I did make the same observation as you that wilgy was the only target who he offered a definitive read on, though. I would expect Jay to want to bus a teammate or two, and I would likewise expect a teammate or two to want to bus Jay.
colonialbob's interactions fit this model best of anyone, in my opinion. They sort of hovered around one another on Days 2 & 3, without ever really delivering any criticism of one another. Jay labeled bob as "not a town read" after I came up with my initial Bob case, but that suspicion fell completely off the map afterwards. Until Day 4, when suddenly bob was apparently highly confident in Jay's badness; confident enough to attack another player (DDL) for appearing to defend Jay, but somehow not confident enough to vote for him on his own. Jay, meanwhile, offered an ISO that was far more critical of bob than he had been prior and even made one point in particular that was directly opposed to a stance he had taken earlier in the game, when presumably BaddieJimmyJay would have wanted to keep his partners out of harm's way. I could not help but sense a shift in the way each of them approached one another on Night 3/Day 4.

Sig was the low-posting suspect who Jay repeatedly named, but never pursued in any serious manner. Dom/malakim and sprityo/dunya were both players who Jay actively tried to lynch at one point or another.

I agree with much of what you have to say about wilgy, but I do not disregard the possibility that the two of them as partners conspired to maximize the distance between them in the thread. It would have been fairly elaborate, but that's not something I would put past either of them.

Show your work.

[Sloonei]

How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?

If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.

No hesitation in supporting Dom's lynch. I remain opposed to the idea of lynching malakim.

Sloonei, you may have already covered this but I have real problems with this assumption.

What I've noticed with traditional distancing is that a lot of scum like to keep their suspicious partners as "suspects."

This means if the town is hunting for 2 baddies, putting a teammate 3rd from the bottom in your rainbow. This means saying that you'll vote for a teammate or that they're the best option but ultimately not voting for them.

Why do you think Jay is not doing the later to Mal? Jimmy says he'd lynch Mal now if it was EOD but no matter how many times he was pushed, he refused to actually do so.

That screams "scumbuddies" to me.

I agree. I just disagree that malakim is the likely teammate. Sig and colonialbob look like better choices to me, and I'm also open to DrWilgy.

Mostly disagree on Sig. He's not around to defend himself so shade is extra dangerous. I have always thought Jimmy's attack on Sig was unfair and I said as much.

Disagree on Bob. I think you're misinterpreting his "no CFD" comment which looked to be about votes, like yours, falling onto Wilgy for no good reason. The Bob case falls flat for me.

Strongly disagree on Wilgy cause all my suspects tried to lynch him yesterday instead of Jimmy.

Have you looked at my Jay ISO posts? There's a whole lot more about why Bob and sig in particular are my top suspects in this search. Bob's CFD comment is only marginally relevant, and the shade Jay threw at sig was just that: shade. There was no meat to it at all. That could be because he was full of substance posing as meat altogether, but I interpreted it differently.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

on empathy

I dont shut down my empathy when I play as civ because it makes it easier to fake my civ meta when I bad. I try to show much much I care about people and feel bad about lynching them so they think I'm a civ

[Jackofhearts2005]

scenario 1:

Long Con
5
29%
Voters: Elohcin, colonialbob, nutella, Sloonei, Kylemii


nutella
6
35%
Voters: sprityo, speedchuck, Jackofhearts2005, Long Con, Quin, Dragon D. Luffy
Quin

speedchuck + Jack mafia team with nutella (and Jay). one of Jack and speed is Sutter Buttes imo.

it would have been 5/5 at the end of the day and according to Marmot, no lynch is the result of a tie at the end of Day 1.

Percentage I think is possible: high percentage.

Going through alternative scenarios....

This is impossible. But thanks for trying.

[Sloonei]

No.

I explained my suspects in way too much detail there, but I also largely ignored Jay's Day 4 ISOs because I'm viewing them as pure, unfiltered wifom. I did make the same observation as you that wilgy was the only target who he offered a definitive read on, though. I would expect Jay to want to bus a teammate or two, and I would likewise expect a teammate or two to want to bus Jay.
colonialbob's interactions fit this model best of anyone, in my opinion. They sort of hovered around one another on Days 2 & 3, without ever really delivering any criticism of one another. Jay labeled bob as "not a town read" after I came up with my initial Bob case, but that suspicion fell completely off the map afterwards. Until Day 4, when suddenly bob was apparently highly confident in Jay's badness; confident enough to attack another player (DDL) for appearing to defend Jay, but somehow not confident enough to vote for him on his own. Jay, meanwhile, offered an ISO that was far more critical of bob than he had been prior and even made one point in particular that was directly opposed to a stance he had taken earlier in the game, when presumably BaddieJimmyJay would have wanted to keep his partners out of harm's way. I could not help but sense a shift in the way each of them approached one another on Night 3/Day 4.

Sig was the low-posting suspect who Jay repeatedly named, but never pursued in any serious manner. Dom/malakim and sprityo/dunya were both players who Jay actively tried to lynch at one point or another.

I agree with much of what you have to say about wilgy, but I do not disregard the possibility that the two of them as partners conspired to maximize the distance between them in the thread. It would have been fairly elaborate, but that's not something I would put past either of them.

Show your work.

My work

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm not caught up but I stopped to read Epis Kyle theory.

I loved it.

Im gonna ISO the fuck out of Kyle tomorrow.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also I am a suspect to you because you believe I bussed Jay. How can you treat my line of suspicion as illegitimate? We're looking for the same thing; it's just our results that are different.

No. You're a suspect to me because

1) I believe Jimmy and Dom/Mal are w/w and you voted to save Dom/Mal. Worse, you did so with no reasoning or conviction.

2) You voted Wilgy with all my other suspects instead of Jimmy or Speed, which no explanation, creating a scenario where the only town read of mine between the three of them was more likely to be lynched as of an hour before EOD.

3) You keep handwaiving the incredibly strong cases against Mal (obviously saved by Jimmy) and Quin (obviously trying to save Mal and then Jimmy and refuses to say why).


I don't actually care one way or another about your vote for Jimmy. If you hadn't voted or said anything at all, the outcome would be the same.

[Sloonei]

If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.

No hesitation in supporting Dom's lynch. I remain opposed to the idea of lynching malakim.

Sloonei, you may have already covered this but I have real problems with this assumption.

What I've noticed with traditional distancing is that a lot of scum like to keep their suspicious partners as "suspects."

This means if the town is hunting for 2 baddies, putting a teammate 3rd from the bottom in your rainbow. This means saying that you'll vote for a teammate or that they're the best option but ultimately not voting for them.

Why do you think Jay is not doing the later to Mal? Jimmy says he'd lynch Mal now if it was EOD but no matter how many times he was pushed, he refused to actually do so.

That screams "scumbuddies" to me.

I agree. I just disagree that malakim is the likely teammate. Sig and colonialbob look like better choices to me, and I'm also open to DrWilgy.

Why do you disagree?

Why was Jimmy after Mesk so hard if a townie Mal lynch would have been just as good for him?

I just gave one of my reasons for reading Mal as town in the first of my three consecutive posts above.

I think you're exaggerating Jay's role in the Mesk lynch. I could be misremembering, but as I recall he was largely a follower on the bandwagon. He said more about Mesk than others, but only because we were making him talk the most. He seized the Mesk wagon because it existed. He was saving himself, not Dom.

The highlight of the Mesk lynch was Epi and Jimmy butting heads over which of the two to lynch. Jimmy ended up looking really bad over this and did not look really bad prior.

He absolutely pushed for Mesk to die over Mal, not himself.

Not how I saw it. Epi and I started to pressure Jay long before Mesk emerged as a target ("long before" relative to the EoD pace). I pressured Jay to vote for the "player he was most suspicious of" and he chose Elohcin. Epi, nutella, myself, and I think somebody else all voted for Jay sometime during all of this. Dom faded to the background and was all but dropped as a suspect.
Quin then came in to present Mesk as a candidate. Jay seized on that, and Epi questioned him on this vote, drawing Dom as a comparable candidate and one who Jay had expressed more reasons in-thread to lynch. The argument over Dom/Mesk between Epi and Jay was about Jay's inconsistencies with regards to Mesk, rather than any alleged protection of Dom. Epi was backing him into a corner based on his Mesk vote. Jay was swinging wildly to justify voting for Mesk because that's what Epi was questioning him on and he had to say something that might seem plausible. He didn't.

[Sloonei]

Also I am a suspect to you because you believe I bussed Jay. How can you treat my line of suspicion as illegitimate? We're looking for the same thing; it's just our results that are different.

No. You're a suspect to me because

1) I believe Jimmy and Dom/Mal are w/w and you voted to save Dom/Mal. Worse, you did so with no reasoning or conviction.

2) You voted Wilgy with all my other suspects instead of Jimmy or Speed, which no explanation, creating a scenario where the only town read of mine between the three of them was more likely to be lynched as of an hour before EOD.

3) You keep handwaiving the incredibly strong cases against Mal (obviously saved by Jimmy) and Quin (obviously trying to save Mal and then Jimmy and refuses to say why).


I don't actually care one way or another about your vote for Jimmy. If you hadn't voted or said anything at all, the outcome would be the same.

You're overreacting to my wilgy vote. I voted for speedchuck to breathe life into the thread. I liked speedchuck's response to things, so I moved to wilgy just to feel it out. I didn't like it, so I went back to Jay, who had been my top suspect for 48 hours. I'll note again that I was the first person to vote for Jay on Day 3. I only moved off him then for personal reasons (not game-related).

It's ridiculous for you to say I'm handwaving at cases against Mal and Quin. I pumped the thread full of all my thoughts regarding Jay's potential teammates and you clearly have not read them. I'm currently engaged in a conversation with you about why I believe Mal is town, and I've named Quin as a fringe suspect, but one who I generally read as town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention]

Your work shows this as the only post where Jimmy "actively tried to lynch" Dom.

Am I missing something?

Dom's failure to post anything at all is his Thing in recent memory. I do recall though that Kenny Bania (mafia) produced nothing whatsoever. I'm not sure even low-effort civilian games from Dom lately were quite so lacking. I'll check really quick.

I looked at four recent games wherein Dom was a civilian.

TSFQ - civilian - more useful in general, though it took a while

posts

Gatsby - civilian - very brief posts, only barely relevant content

posts

Night Vale - civilian - crapload of posts, comparison probably isn't sensible, it is an outlier for Dom in general

SFII - civilian - few posts, but relevant

posts

~~~

I don't know that this makes Dom look considerably worse, because there's a decent amount of variance in his brands of lurking. He remains a default suspect if little else.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei

Your work shows this as the only post where Jimmy "actively tried to lynch" Dom.

Am I missing something?

Dom's failure to post anything at all is his Thing in recent memory. I do recall though that Kenny Bania (mafia) produced nothing whatsoever. I'm not sure even low-effort civilian games from Dom lately were quite so lacking. I'll check really quick.

I looked at four recent games wherein Dom was a civilian.

TSFQ - civilian - more useful in general, though it took a while

posts

Gatsby - civilian - very brief posts, only barely relevant content

posts

Night Vale - civilian - crapload of posts, comparison probably isn't sensible, it is an outlier for Dom in general

SFII - civilian - few posts, but relevant

posts

~~~

I don't know that this makes Dom look considerably worse, because there's a decent amount of variance in his brands of lurking. He remains a default suspect if little else.

There was also the part where he voted for him. But this post struck me as a relatively significant amount of work for jay to put into smearing an inactive player. I settled on that being more indicative of a non-teammate relationship, but that's not a definitive stance.

My town read on Mal is not overpowering. I just disagree with the arguments that have been presented against him, and have some evidence that suggests to me that he is firmly town on top of it. I can see a scenario in which he's bad, but it's not among the most likely to me at this time.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also I am a suspect to you because you believe I bussed Jay. How can you treat my line of suspicion as illegitimate? We're looking for the same thing; it's just our results that are different.

No. You're a suspect to me because

1) I believe Jimmy and Dom/Mal are w/w and you voted to save Dom/Mal. Worse, you did so with no reasoning or conviction.

2) You voted Wilgy with all my other suspects instead of Jimmy or Speed, which no explanation, creating a scenario where the only town read of mine between the three of them was more likely to be lynched as of an hour before EOD.

3) You keep handwaiving the incredibly strong cases against Mal (obviously saved by Jimmy) and Quin (obviously trying to save Mal and then Jimmy and refuses to say why).


I don't actually care one way or another about your vote for Jimmy. If you hadn't voted or said anything at all, the outcome would be the same.

You're overreacting to my wilgy vote. I voted for speedchuck to breathe life into the thread. I liked speedchuck's response to things, so I moved to wilgy just to feel it out. I didn't like it, so I went back to Jay, who had been my top suspect for 48 hours. I'll note again that I was the first person to vote for Jay on Day 3. I only moved off him then for personal reasons (not game-related).

It's ridiculous for you to say I'm handwaving at cases against Mal and Quin. I pumped the thread full of all my thoughts regarding Jay's potential teammates and you clearly have not read them. I'm currently engaged in a conversation with you about why I believe Mal is town, and I've named Quin as a fringe suspect, but one who I generally read as town.

"Feel it out"

What does that mean? You said nothing when you placed that vote.

I read your cases. I disagree with them, some more than others.

What town motivation do you see in Quin's posts regarding the last two lynches and his refusal to explain them?

[Sloonei]

Also I am a suspect to you because you believe I bussed Jay. How can you treat my line of suspicion as illegitimate? We're looking for the same thing; it's just our results that are different.

No. You're a suspect to me because

1) I believe Jimmy and Dom/Mal are w/w and you voted to save Dom/Mal. Worse, you did so with no reasoning or conviction.

2) You voted Wilgy with all my other suspects instead of Jimmy or Speed, which no explanation, creating a scenario where the only town read of mine between the three of them was more likely to be lynched as of an hour before EOD.

3) You keep handwaiving the incredibly strong cases against Mal (obviously saved by Jimmy) and Quin (obviously trying to save Mal and then Jimmy and refuses to say why).


I don't actually care one way or another about your vote for Jimmy. If you hadn't voted or said anything at all, the outcome would be the same.

You're overreacting to my wilgy vote. I voted for speedchuck to breathe life into the thread. I liked speedchuck's response to things, so I moved to wilgy just to feel it out. I didn't like it, so I went back to Jay, who had been my top suspect for 48 hours. I'll note again that I was the first person to vote for Jay on Day 3. I only moved off him then for personal reasons (not game-related).

It's ridiculous for you to say I'm handwaving at cases against Mal and Quin. I pumped the thread full of all my thoughts regarding Jay's potential teammates and you clearly have not read them. I'm currently engaged in a conversation with you about why I believe Mal is town, and I've named Quin as a fringe suspect, but one who I generally read as town.

"Feel it out"

What does that mean? You said nothing when you placed that vote.

I read your cases. I disagree with them, some more than others.

What town motivation do you see in Quin's posts regarding the last two lynches and his refusal to explain them?

I mean I can be an intuitive player sometimes. I put my vote on wilgy and reflected on in for a little while. I was probing myself to see if I could come up with an argument for Jay being town, and his wilgy case being authentic. I said nothing in the thread because I was distracted by real life things at the time.

I wish Quin would be more willing to explain his thought process regarding the last two lynches as well. I just see him being a little stubborn and short on time/energy right now. I don't see a scum motivation for his behavior either. He'd be digging his own grave in that case.

[Jackofhearts2005]

More WIFOM.

[Sloonei]

which part is wifom?

my rule of thumb is that if all my arguments for why a person could be bad devolve to "wifom" then the arguments are not strong.

[Sloonei]

Tell me more about the parts of my cases you disagree with, Jack. Obviously Bob is my strongest read and you have more experience with him than anyone else here. I'd love to hear an argument for him being town from you.

[Sloonei]

If you have one, that is. You've been on record as not knowing how to read him this game. I'm interested in your thoughts on him regardless of his projected alignment.

[Elohcin]

I feel you, dunya. It's entirely plaisible we all crossed nutella off our lists prematurely. Her behavior before the lynch was what did it for me, though, and not her reaction to it. She seemed to anticipate that a tie would happen. It's possible this was just a gambit that miraculously paid off. But the question of why she's still alive is a good one. I think there are answers thay don't have to involve her being scum, but it's still worth addressing.

I didn't write nutella off and was reprimanded for even bringing her up at one point recently. But then again... I think it was Nutella who reprimanded me. I totally can see nutella being bad still.

[Sloonei]

Another reservation I have about suspecting nutella is that she was the third person to join the Jay bandwagon on Day 3, after Epi and myself. I don't think Jay was a likely bus candidate on Day 3, and she was the one who turned the case from crackpot theory to full-blown bandwagon.

[dunya]

If I do end up dead, a few parting words:

~ Any civilians who helped to kill me -- it's alright. I don't blame you. I understand that I have been a different player in this game and that is inherently going to generate suspicion. I'm over it.

~ Second, the activity level in this game has been fantastic to this point. The best thing the civilians can do moving forward is to maintain that through the finish. Do not let this game thread stagnate. That is the single best way to let a mafia team get comfortable.

~ Epi and Jack are full of shit right now. Press them on it when I'm gone. I'd also list Wilgy as a premier suspect.

~ My top town reads are Sloonei, dunya, and Quin.

~ I think speedchuck and malakim handled themselves well in this day phase, particularly toward the end. I'm less thrilled with Long Con.

~ Please at least give my ISOs a look, their primary value is as legacy and that's the whole point.

Three remaining scum.

He names 8 players

Epi, Jack, Wilgy - anitown

sloonei, dunya, Quin - town

speedchuck, mal - positive things

long con - negative things

People he did not name at all in his "legacy post":
Elo
Kyle
insertnamehere
colonialbob
sig
nutella
DDL

Three scum remaining, it's a pick and mix. No way he didn't name all 3 of his team mates in that post and no way he would name all 3.

I'm going to start with the people he not name and list them from least scummy to most scummy in my head as of now, with the exception of insertnamehere (insert angry face emoji here)

sig
DDL
colonialbob
Elo
insertnamehere
Kyle
nutella

I wanted to place insertnamehere in the middle, but I actually feel much better about Elo today after reading some of her past civ games, so I'll place him one spot under here.

Potential suspects from this pool imo are:
INH
Kyle
nutella

I'm a little baffled as to why he didn't name nutella amongst "top town read", or colonialbob in any read, especially after his iso of him, since it's (the fact he didn't means he's not even really paying attention to bob imo, despite being slightly pro-bob all game....). I can't extend that same excuse to nutella, since she's literally been a "top town read" in everyone's lists and she was attacking him all kinds of harsh that eod phase. He couldn't have forgotten about her. He wanted us to forget about her. The one thing that clears nutella slightly for me is how hard Jay went after sprityo (my alter ego) for voting for her! He was hoping to lynch him fast and it all revolved around nutella. I feel awkward about that, because a sprityo lynch would be a town flip; and I don't think he'd want to be that wrong about someone over another scum member.

[Kylemii]

I'm not caught up but I stopped to read Epis Kyle theory.

I loved it.

Im gonna ISO the fuck out of Kyle tomorrow.

Specifically which part did you "love" about it, because most of it was based on things that were incorrect.

[dunya]

Hm that's odd

What's odd?

DDL moving to JJJ.
That's like the opposite of what he was reading at the time right?

I read his jockeying over his read on me to be genuine.

speedchuck mentions something off by DDL vote, Jay actually defends DDL. Very strange exchange between Jay and speed imo. No way Jay was defending team mate DDL, but something feels weird about how he chose to reply to speed about it.

[dunya]

Now that you mention it it seems strange he's not focusing on people who could viably be lynched today.

There are two hours remaining. Nearly anyone can viably be lynched today. Given the freedom and total control, who would you lynch right now?

cbob or speedchuck or maybe DDL

you've got the most votes right now and I trust about half of your voters but I've felt sincerity in your posts and actions but Nutella is right that maybe that really actually your goal, did you respond to nutella's post about that?

Yeah

Talk to me about your suspicion of DDL.

he asks Kyle to specifically elaborate instead on why he suspects DDL despite calling him "genuine" just a while earlier.