Mountain Mafia [END]

[dunya]

Jay's iso case posts read sincere to me.

I must say I strongly disagree. They look so, so fake to me. Either way, they will be interesting to consider once we know his alignment.

nutella claims Jay's ISOs look "so, so fake" to her, but would be interesting to consider after we learn his alignment.

Fifteen minutes later, nutella claims "he is using some sort of wifom trickery/manipulating his ISOs so that when he flips bad we'll be thrown off by his "reads" and not know which ones were real"

Fifteen minutes!

Don't like this.

[Kylemii]

Like honestly I'm sure there's plenty of reasons to suspect me; i won't pretend I haven't been lazy. I've been playing a laid back civ game revolving around following along with other people's ideas and cases, and deciding on the spot which idea generators are worth my trust. My most unique contribution resulted in a civvie lynch.

Epi's case revolves around me not making my vote announcements specific enough and otherwise revolves around semantics and a loose understanding of my history in this game as if it wasn't experienced first hand but was maybe read about in a newspaper article or something. I don't think it's worthy of love.

[Sloonei]

Kyle, who are your up-to-the-minute suspects?

[speedchuck]

I regret not pursuing colonialbob more over the last couple of days. I never heard a good argument in favor of him being town and I haven't changed my mind on him. Digging through Jay Mountain only strengthened my read. Does anybody have an argument for colonialbob to be town?

If you don't ignore ridiculously scummy behavior, there are well more suspects that deserve immediate lynch than there are remaining baddies. Bob is not one of them.

I don't particularly see Bob teamed with Jimmy.

I certainly don't see him teamed with my suspects Speedchuck and Sloonei.

I'm pretty sure I and Sloonei don't agree with your other suspects.

[speedchuck]

I just went from 1 simple order this week to four orders (3 of them pretty elaborate) so I'm a little overwhelmed but thankful for such work so close to Christmas.

I just realized that you probably actually do make cakes.

[Sloonei]

I regret not pursuing colonialbob more over the last couple of days. I never heard a good argument in favor of him being town and I haven't changed my mind on him. Digging through Jay Mountain only strengthened my read. Does anybody have an argument for colonialbob to be town?

If you don't ignore ridiculously scummy behavior, there are well more suspects that deserve immediate lynch than there are remaining baddies. Bob is not one of them.

I don't particularly see Bob teamed with Jimmy.

I certainly don't see him teamed with my suspects Speedchuck and Sloonei.

I'm pretty sure I and Sloonei don't agree with your other suspects.

Which proposed suspects do yoy agree with?

[Kylemii]

Kyle, who are your up-to-the-minute suspects?

Right now I'm looking through JaggyJim's early posts for mentions of Cbob, Long Con, Quin, and Sig and how he treated them.

[Sloonei]

Kyle, who are your up-to-the-minute suspects?

Right now I'm looking through JaggyJim's early posts for mentions of Cbob, Long Con, Quin, and Sig and how he treated them.

Cool cool cool.

[Sloonei]

I appreciate the work dunya is putting in but i'm watching hand egg so i'm too distracted for in depth analysis right now.

[speedchuck]

I regret not pursuing colonialbob more over the last couple of days. I never heard a good argument in favor of him being town and I haven't changed my mind on him. Digging through Jay Mountain only strengthened my read. Does anybody have an argument for colonialbob to be town?

If you don't ignore ridiculously scummy behavior, there are well more suspects that deserve immediate lynch than there are remaining baddies. Bob is not one of them.

I don't particularly see Bob teamed with Jimmy.

I certainly don't see him teamed with my suspects Speedchuck and Sloonei.

I'm pretty sure I and Sloonei don't agree with your other suspects.

Which proposed suspects do you agree with?

I'm in an interesting spot. Or I guess an uninformed spot. 3 Day weekend, been partying with family and overwatch, and have been mostly keeping up with the game on the phone just to know what's going on. So I have people I want to look at for the next lynch, but none that overlap really.

Nutella Cbob Jack Malakim Quin Kylemii

I strongly feel that two of our scum baddies are in here, and most of these exclude several of the others.

I do find your arguments against suspecting malakim and Jack's arguments against suspecting Cbob to be weak. Assuming motives and BTSC stuff that might not have happened. In case you haven't noticed, we are pretty prone (at least in this game) to switching lynches with or without provocation. I have no idea what percentage of JJJ's lynch was bussing and what wasn't.

Anyway, I've seen cases against the six above that have merit. My goal for Day 4 (hopefully that's tomorrow, I have a lot of time on Mondays) is to link them into groups, order them by suspicion, and test them against JJJ.

Dunya, Sig, and tinfoil LC, DDL, or Eloh might be in with some the six above, but I'll link those when I get to them. One small step at a time.

I know that's very broad, but we just had a scum flip and I've hardly been on since. Reevaluation is in order.

[Sloonei]

Where are you gonna start digging, Chuck E. Speed?

[dunya]

I have to say, Jack doesn't make much pairing sense with other suspects I have. I have to gather my thoughts. When is night ending???

[speedchuck]

I have to say, Jack doesn't make much pairing sense with other suspects I have. I have to gather my thoughts. When is night ending???

That's the big problem I have too. :P

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] With the top six. Primarily Kyle, Nutella, and Malakim. Then maybe Cbob.

[Sloonei]

I have to say, Jack doesn't make much pairing sense with other suspects I have. I have to gather my thoughts. When is night ending???

night ends 22:00 MST tonight. I dunno what that is in dunya standard time.

[Sloonei]

I am firmly town-reading Jack at this point.

[Kylemii]

Gonna start with sig:

First off I want to comment that JJJ uses variations of the word "significant" almost constantly. Which made this take a little longer than it would have otherwise.

sig as a civilian pirate was more engaged and effortful in the high-octane Day 1 aboard the pirate ship than he was in this high-octane Day 1. Bad vibes.

I have no reason to read sig as a civilian.

This is the most substantive post in his history, and it's a bit of a hedge with regard to Epi and LC. He's positioned to do whatever he wants with regard to that feud.

Oh!

Re: Jimmy attacking Sig

Not fair to compare early pirates Sig to late pirates Sig and then contrast early pirates Sig with Sig here cause he got real busy irl. I want to hear more from Sig and won't give him a pass all game but still. Not a fair comparison imo.

Jay, thoughts on this post?

Jack's point is fair enough. It is true that sig was busy. My willingness to give people a break for that is limited, because I have seen too many bad guys use that as an excuse to hide from the game thread (including myself in the past). That doesn't have to mean sig was doing that.

These are the only three posts where Jay speculates about Sig's alignment. These all took place in the first two days that we're basically just one long day the first one was part of his puke post that he made immediately upon replacing MP.

The first two posts list Sig as a scumread but do it in a way that requires no follow up. Later when questioned on his pirates comparison he softly pulls back from Sig.

I know Sig hasn't really been a hot topic of discussion lately but I think it's notable that Jay never mentioned sig again after this. It seems to me like Jay was either sowing seeds of suspicion to possibly use for later or low-key play punching a teammate as a distancing tactic.

[Kylemii]

Sloonei you remind me of that kid from everyone's high school science class who texts everyone every day to make sure they're doing their share of the group project.

[Kylemii]

Sloonei you remind me of that kid from everyone's high school science class who texts everyone every day to make sure they're doing their share of the group project.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei you remind me of that kid from everyone's high school science class who texts everyone every day to make sure they're doing their share of the group project.

except i studied english, not science.

[dunya]

Hey sorry I haven't been around for most of the discussion. Been periodically catching up while doing other stuff. I'm cool with the Dom lynch but since there's already a comfortable lead there I'm tempted to put a symbolic vote somewhere, probably Jay at this point tbh.

After no mentions of Jay, nutella starts off her suspicions by "putting a symbolic vote" (on Jay)

Yeah, the Dom lynch will give zero info. I'll go Mesk.

*vote Mesk*

Somewhat fair point, although mesk gives barely any more... if she flips town though I'm looking at Jay/Dom w/w

distancing.

actually nah, my most confident read is jay. Let's lynch him.

okay I'm in

that was fast.

Jay is so bad. And Dom is probably on his team.

she makes a case on Jay that is weak as ketchup and one you can easily dismiss. He's bad because he chose to lynch Mesk over Dom. If Mesk flips town, he's bad with Dom. I mean........come on.

In case I am NKed tonight:
Jay
Quin
Dom/malakim

should be the next three lynches. Not sure who the fourth is. I'd maybe consider Kyle again tbh... Or INH or sig. But I am very confident that the three I listed are bad.

"in case I'm NKed"

nope. She was basically a glorified town read on everyone's lists since Day 1 and the scum still haven't approached her yet.

Jay's iso case posts read sincere to me.

I must say I strongly disagree. They look so, so fake to me. Either way, they will be interesting to consider once we know his alignment.

Her confidence levels are not towny level of confidence imo. It's more "I know stuff" confidence. Feels very insincere to me. Looks like a clear bussing strategy that started in Night 3.

Jay's iso case posts read sincere to me.

I must say I strongly disagree. They look so, so fake to me. Either way, they will be interesting to consider once we know his alignment.

What would his motivation for making them would be as a mafio?

It's obvious, come on. Several reasons. First of all, he really has no choice at this point since it's his last chance to appear town and convince us that he's his normal supertown self by doing ISOs and scumhunting. Of course he's doing this now. Second, if he's scum I would bet that he is using some sort of wifom trickery/manipulating his ISOs so that when he flips bad we'll be thrown off by his "reads" and not know which ones were real -- so he might be bussing teammates, or defending them, or otherwise completely throwing us off the trail in providing these reads.

@JaggedJimmyJay how are you deciding who to ISO? So far you've done bob, wilgy, malakim, and speedchuck. Those seem kind of random. What is your reasoning for choosing them?

Tries to diminish any reliability in Jimmy's ISOs so they aren't good evidence, after stating they'll be interesting to consider like 15 mins before.

~~~~~~~~

Where did Jay come from in nutella's suspect pool is what I want to know. She had a heavy leaning on Jack. There's nothing in her posts that show why she shifted. Jay was as much as a suspect for his role in Mesk as Quin and she didn't even mention him until someone pointed it out. She didn't question it beyond that though. She hung onto Jay and didn't do anything else. He didn't exist to her before Night 3. She didn't provide any real reasoning why Jay over Quin or Dom. She didn't explain the shift from Jack.

I don't like it. It all felt very fake to me.

[Sloonei]

Gonna start with sig:

First off I want to comment that JJJ uses variations of the word "significant" almost constantly. Which made this take a little longer than it would have otherwise.

sig as a civilian pirate was more engaged and effortful in the high-octane Day 1 aboard the pirate ship than he was in this high-octane Day 1. Bad vibes.

I have no reason to read sig as a civilian.

This is the most substantive post in his history, and it's a bit of a hedge with regard to Epi and LC. He's positioned to do whatever he wants with regard to that feud.

Oh!

Re: Jimmy attacking Sig

Not fair to compare early pirates Sig to late pirates Sig and then contrast early pirates Sig with Sig here cause he got real busy irl. I want to hear more from Sig and won't give him a pass all game but still. Not a fair comparison imo.

Jay, thoughts on this post?

Jack's point is fair enough. It is true that sig was busy. My willingness to give people a break for that is limited, because I have seen too many bad guys use that as an excuse to hide from the game thread (including myself in the past). That doesn't have to mean sig was doing that.

These are the only three posts where Jay speculates about Sig's alignment. These all took place in the first two days that we're basically just one long day the first one was part of his puke post that he made immediately upon replacing MP.

The first two posts list Sig as a scumread but do it in a way that requires no follow up. Later when questioned on his pirates comparison he softly pulls back from Sig.

I know Sig hasn't really been a hot topic of discussion lately but I think it's notable that Jay never mentioned sig again after this. It seems to me like Jay was either sowing seeds of suspicion to possibly use for later or low-key play punching a teammate as a distancing tactic.

These are the only two conclusions I can see to draw from Jay's treatment of sig. It's up to us to determine which is more likely the case. If we can't determine a better lynch candidate, I wouldn't stand in the way of a sig lynch, but as always I prefer to give sig a chance to make his own case in this game. He's in a tough spot either way.

[dunya]

The only ??????? I have is Day 1 lynch. I'll try to figure that out. I mean, we have like 10 hours and it's not like I have end of semester shit to worry about cos what is an education going to get me? Nope. Mafia is more important.

[dunya]

Gonna start with sig:

First off I want to comment that JJJ uses variations of the word "significant" almost constantly. Which made this take a little longer than it would have otherwise.

sig as a civilian pirate was more engaged and effortful in the high-octane Day 1 aboard the pirate ship than he was in this high-octane Day 1. Bad vibes.

I have no reason to read sig as a civilian.

This is the most substantive post in his history, and it's a bit of a hedge with regard to Epi and LC. He's positioned to do whatever he wants with regard to that feud.

Oh!

Re: Jimmy attacking Sig

Not fair to compare early pirates Sig to late pirates Sig and then contrast early pirates Sig with Sig here cause he got real busy irl. I want to hear more from Sig and won't give him a pass all game but still. Not a fair comparison imo.

Jay, thoughts on this post?

Jack's point is fair enough. It is true that sig was busy. My willingness to give people a break for that is limited, because I have seen too many bad guys use that as an excuse to hide from the game thread (including myself in the past). That doesn't have to mean sig was doing that.

These are the only three posts where Jay speculates about Sig's alignment. These all took place in the first two days that we're basically just one long day the first one was part of his puke post that he made immediately upon replacing MP.

The first two posts list Sig as a scumread but do it in a way that requires no follow up. Later when questioned on his pirates comparison he softly pulls back from Sig.

I know Sig hasn't really been a hot topic of discussion lately but I think it's notable that Jay never mentioned sig again after this. It seems to me like Jay was either sowing seeds of suspicion to possibly use for later or low-key play punching a teammate as a distancing tactic.

These are the only two conclusions I can see to draw from Jay's treatment of sig. It's up to us to determine which is more likely the case. If we can't determine a better lynch candidate, I wouldn't stand in the way of a sig lynch, but as always I prefer to give sig a chance to make his own case in this game. He's in a tough spot either way.

I see Jay's push on sig similar to his push on Mesk. He got a lot of heat for it too, so he backed away. I think he was testing the waters to see how likely it would be to get a sig lynch rolling. Seemed unlikely and he backed off.

[Sloonei]

I want nutella to offer up her own defense of that case, dunya, and there are some solid points against her that need to be addressed. But I have one piece of defense to offer in her favor: she's a near-unanimous town read and she's still alive, this is true. But we also had no nightkill on nights 1 & 2. we now know for sure that there was an active baddie in that time, so it wasn't just failure to submit a kill. Instead the nightkill was thwarted. This could mean there was some form of protection on the target of one of those kills. It is likely that nutella would have been targeted by either/both of a nightkill and a protection given her status in the thread.

[Sloonei]

I see Jay's push on sig similar to his push on Mesk. He got a lot of heat for it too, so he backed away. I think he was testing the waters to see how likely it would be to get a sig lynch rolling. Seemed unlikely and he backed off.

I'll look into this. One of the obvious shortcomings of the type of case I built yesterday is that I'm only seeing the comments Jay made. I'm not always getting the complete picture of things going on in the thread. I didn't pick up on much reaction to the sig pushes besides Jack's lone rejection of it.

[dunya]

I want nutella to offer up her own defense of that case, dunya, and there are some solid points against her that need to be addressed. But I have one piece of defense to offer in her favor: she's a near-unanimous town read and she's still alive, this is true. But we also had no nightkill on nights 1 & 2. we now know for sure that there was an active baddie in that time, so it wasn't just failure to submit a kill. Instead the nightkill was thwarted. This could mean there was some form of protection on the target of one of those kills. It is likely that nutella would have been targeted by either/both of a nightkill and a protection given her status in the thread.

My point being is we follow everyone's line of thought on why she wasn't lynched, are we also allowing to assume she was protected from a night kill? I find that unlikely is all.

Her "in case I am NKed tonight" seems fake to me. sorry.

[dunya]

I see Jay's push on sig similar to his push on Mesk. He got a lot of heat for it too, so he backed away. I think he was testing the waters to see how likely it would be to get a sig lynch rolling. Seemed unlikely and he backed off.

I'll look into this. One of the obvious shortcomings of the type of case I built yesterday is that I'm only seeing the comments Jay made. I'm not always getting the complete picture of things going on in the thread. I didn't pick up on much reaction to the sig pushes besides Jack's lone rejection of it.

Kyle questioned it and I rejected it too and thus began my serious suspicions on Jay (especially how quick he backed off). Off the top of my head.

[Sloonei]

I want nutella to offer up her own defense of that case, dunya, and there are some solid points against her that need to be addressed. But I have one piece of defense to offer in her favor: she's a near-unanimous town read and she's still alive, this is true. But we also had no nightkill on nights 1 & 2. we now know for sure that there was an active baddie in that time, so it wasn't just failure to submit a kill. Instead the nightkill was thwarted. This could mean there was some form of protection on the target of one of those kills. It is likely that nutella would have been targeted by either/both of a nightkill and a protection given her status in the thread.

My point being is we follow everyone's line of thought on why she wasn't lynched, are we also allowing to assume she was protected from a night kill? I find that unlikely is all.

Her "in case I am NKed tonight" seems fake to me. sorry.

My point is just that if the assumptions we have made about her are true, then it could also help to explain why there was a failed nightkill or two.

[dunya]

I want nutella to offer up her own defense of that case, dunya, and there are some solid points against her that need to be addressed. But I have one piece of defense to offer in her favor: she's a near-unanimous town read and she's still alive, this is true. But we also had no nightkill on nights 1 & 2. we now know for sure that there was an active baddie in that time, so it wasn't just failure to submit a kill. Instead the nightkill was thwarted. This could mean there was some form of protection on the target of one of those kills. It is likely that nutella would have been targeted by either/both of a nightkill and a protection given her status in the thread.

My point being is we follow everyone's line of thought on why she wasn't lynched, are we also allowing to assume she was protected from a night kill? I find that unlikely is all.

Her "in case I am NKed tonight" seems fake to me. sorry.

Her apathetic reaction to being alive after day 1 also didn't leave me feeling thrilled.

I can't wait till this game is over and Marmot tells us what happened the first 2 day and night phases.

[Kylemii]

Digging through Jay's puke and looking for pieces of Quin:

At face value I thought Jack looked good. His handling of a particular Sloonei/Quin exchange spoke to me:

Spoiler: show

Quin

Cause this post. I don't think Sloonei posts this if you are teammates together.

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

He's making friends right off the bat.

I like this because it features a conscious disconnection of two others, based upon reasoning that I think is agreeable. It wasn't frivolous civilian reads or otherwise in the pocketing style I'd expect from an evil-doer. It's a dissociation which did not need to be made, and only benefits mafia Jack if each of the others (Sloonei and Quin) is also mafia. That's a huge ball of tinfoil to swallow.

Quin has made a bunch of posts and I cannot recall feeling much from any of them. Reminder to self to investigate

Alright I'm a big enough man to admit that I can't follow what he said here at all with the whole part about Sloonei but his comment about Quin at the end is notable, I don't remember if he followed through on it but I guess I'll see right?

There's a couple posts where he says (hi Quin) I assume it's an inside joke related to some past games or something?

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

Not a read on Quin by itself but I think it's interesting since Jay put forward grievances earlier about Quin's level of quality content

Oh fuck now they talk a lot

@JaggedJimmyJay Am I getting an ISO? You said you needed to look at me more closely.

Thanks for the reminder, bae. I'll get to it. For the moment I think you look alright -- I appreciate the reversal on Sloonei when he put up the colonialbob case.

Positive read.

Let's ISO Quin

Spoiler: show

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

He's making friends right off the bat.

what are your thoughts on that?

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

what does this sentence mean?

do you want other people to tell you why you are going to vote for mr gnosis?

i'd like that very much thank you

Can you agree with both hesitance and confidence toward the same thing simultaneously?

In this case, I think so. Nutella agrees with the sentiments that have been shared by myself, Long Con, and possibly you (we still don't know your actual reasons for voting Epi). I was only asking about the extent to which she agrees.

My reasons are the same as LC. I thought he was buddying.

Fair enough.

Quin pulled this move on Day 0. I think it's decent on a couple fronts:

1) It's effective for content generation.
2) This notion of "I have a suspicion, everyone else should tell me what it is" strikes me as an atypical means for a mafioso to either smear or distance.

Spoiler: show

On Kyle - Obvious difference in the amount of posts between pirate Mafia and this one, even considering shorter phase lengths and the whole debacle at EoD1. Looks bad at face value, like a baddie who can't insert himself properly but I won't condemn him on that alone. We (or I) don't know where to set the baseline for his civilian game.

His content here isn't really fluff, but his thoughts haven't come together in the thread the way I'd like given the 24 hour day phases. They're not particularly useful to me as they are. I'd like some more elaborated stuff from him soon if he's up to it.

This take on Kylemii contrasts the one I intuited as a spectator, wherein I thought Kyle's rate of contribution was similar to that of his civilian game in Pirates Mafia. I checked my perspective and I'd say the two Day 0/early Day 1 performances look comparable at face value given the difference in phase length. In this regard Quin's grievance appears rather manufactured.

Spoiler: show

okay this has turned into nonsensical arguments that are getting us nowhere. remind me to never again sign up for a game with both Epi and LC because it just always turns into this and we never make progress

Let's make some progress. What do you think about Sloonei?

Agreeable prod of nutella here, primarily in that it has the dual utility of drawing something more concrete from her complaint and also reads development on both nutella and Sloonei. He returned to it later to state a more concrete grievance.

Spoiler: show

I thought as much. Wouldn't you say that's kind of a scum tell for you?

Which part of that is a scum tell for Jack?

Good question; Jack, in answering my question, be a dear and answer Sloonei's as well please.

Where did this conversation lead to?

Quin is making a consistent effort to this point to get the most out of people -- that's a good thing. He pulled this quote back into the dialogue after a number of hours had passed, when either participant would be forced to try to recall their mindset (genuine or not). I appreciate that.

Quin played the early game out of the Sloonei playbook | with questions | and some more questions | and some more questions | etc. I think this methodology is pro-civilian, even if not necessarily as typical of Quin as some others. What's important is that there is some discernible value-potential in the questions being posed, and I would say there is.

Spoiler: show

> You throw votes out like candy on Day 1
> I use the word candy because I've given up on my own country's vocabulary
> You suspect Epi but won't put the final vote on him at that time
> I question why he didn't at least earn a pressure vote
> You tell me that your final vote is cast when it's well reasoned
> This exchange does not make me happy

Epignosis did not need a pressure vote. He was surrounded by pressure.

This is the response that I'd have liked initially.

I'm following the development of Quin's read on Sloonei. Those two know each other uniquely well (as compared to some other random pairing of Syndikats) similarly to my own playing experience with Sloonei. Quin's read has seemed to have a good amount of mobility, with a mix of credit (i.e. not fence sitting) and discredit like what is seen in the exchange above. I consider that mobility to be a positive -- he is trying to be thorough with his read on the player he knows best with frequent reassessments and prods. I highlight this specific post because it represents a relative break in the progression, or at least my ability to follow it -- Quin, at this moment in time did you intend for this assertion to be a positive or negative reflection on Sloonei if either?

Day 2 rainbow

A couple questions:

1) What drove your reads on colonialbob and speedchuck at the time?
2) This was your most recent comprehensive reads list, so what has changed most significantly since?

Agreed

Spoiler: show

My concern with the above is that while Sloonei likes to throw around his votes early and often, he didn't put one on Epi despite essentially declaring him a worthwhile Day 1 lynch candidate. I asked him about that and he danced around that point and told me about how he decides where his final vote of the Day would be made.

He mentioned that Epi already had decent pressure on him at the time, which is basically the response I'd expect from a civilian Sloonei, but since it wasn't his initial response to me it doesn't hold as much weight.

I don't know what his mafia motivation for this is, though.

I like to see someone working through the differences between "hard to understand" and "suspicious" in their head, something evidenced by the highlighted disclaimer.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei doesn't stop to recuperate. Sloonei jumps down an out of the blue players throat at his earliest opportunity.

This might be good Sloonei after all.

I don't think this is a change of heart that a mafioso would be eager to hand out. Quin made the observation in real-time, in the heat of the post-EOD2 dialogue, and I think it's a good look.

~~~

Conclusion

Quin's brief posts and numerous prods don't look inspired (hi Quin) at face value in the full context of the thread, but it's easier to see visible progressions and purpose in the ISO context. The most significant grievance I stated here related to a single post about kylemii in the early going. That's a small thing. Otherwise I had more nice to say here. I lean civilian on Quin.

A lot of work put into ultimately giving a positive read.

Daisy responds and he just drops it? This looks like something I would do if I were bad. Quin tries to get something on daisy. Can't. Gives up. And as he now feels daisy will not be taken to an easy lynch, he asks her opinion on sig. Which really, he should know her thoughts if he had been reading her posts. And if he hadn't, this only confirms his original "suspicion" of her is made up.

My top suspects for day 3 are quin and chuck so far.

Post is snipped for brevity, here's the whole thing

Elohcin, your grievance with Quin here is contingent upon his handling of Spacedaisy. Following the interaction Quin had with Sloonei that you discussed in this same post, Daisy's handling of sig (re: Jack) was the core of the dialogue. In that regard, it would seem to me that a focused question about sig to Spacedaisy makes plenty of sense. Indeed, the highlighted portion here is an assertion that Quin didn't actually read her posts because he asked about sig, but the exchange above this in the same post displays Quin talking about Spacedaisy's read on sig. Please talk about that.

Also please talk about this

Related.

~ My top town reads are Sloonei, dunya, and Quin.

This was in JimmyJay's death chimes so take this part with a quantity of salt ranging from a grain to a bucket.

Idk. Quin's a curious case. It's also fucking weird that every 3rd post JJJ makes contains a hidden "(hi Quin)" somewhere in it. Jay's ISO on Quin took place on night 2 before he was receiving significant suspicion. My gut says Jay was buddying a civ Quin, but aggressively pumping up a teammate who already has okay PR is also possible.

[Kylemii]

Aggressive meaning brazen, not pugnacious.

[dunya]

I think the "hi Quin" is an inside joke between them and unrelated to this game. Quin would be able to clarify.

[Sloonei]

I think the "hi Quin" is an inside joke between them and unrelated to this game. Quin would be able to clarify.

i think he was just slipping that in every time he used a word or phrase Quin doesn't like

[dunya]

this is a very unusual game. I've never played in such a large content heavy game with only 1 lynch and 1 kill and having so much data to analyze.

also I'm going to shower then work on academia stuff. I'll be back later. We literally have until tomorrow before this night is ending so no rush.

[Kylemii]

Looooooooooong Connnnnnnnnnnnnn (get it? i made his name longer than usual! It's got extra letters so it's longer!)

Bear with me if I miss anything. LC and Long Con both get used to refer to him so if I miss something that's probably why.

Spoiler: show

Epignosis has employed a transparent POE approach which I think recalls recent civilian games of his wherein he has accepted the power of the strategy. This was visible quickly in the positive Mesk read which earned the ire of some and contributed to the Long Con feud, and it is visible again in the immediate aftermath of the failed lynch. He went through a lot of trouble to clear nutella, something that I think he has little reason to do if he is mafia and she is a civilian. Nobody is going to fault him if he doesn’t do that; indeed I don’t know that the conclusions he drew were immediately evident to others anyway. This means the Epi-as-mafia case becomes more contingent upon nutella also being mafia. I agree with the reasoning he provided though to give her civilian credit.

The mere fact that another instance Long Con/Epignosis Day 1 combat has taken place right after Pirates does concern me some. Long Con initiated the kerfuffle, and my immediate reaction was to wonder if it's an attempt to squeeze into those meta pajamas he sewed for himself in the prior game. At face value I don't care for the way it started:

Spoiler: show

He's buddying them, and then intimidating you out of an adversarial position. He's setting up a long game. That's not what Civ Epignosis cares to do.

The notion that Epignosis was "setting up a long game" on Day 0 strikes me as bogus. Combine the appearance of a fake accusation with the meta pajamas and there's reason for concern. One can view it as a maneuver to motivate content generation, or just to develop an early read on a difficult player (Epignosis) -- I don't get that impression from the continuing | progression. They look like accusations meant to pursue an actual lynch, corroborated by Long Con himself in response to Epi's assertion that it may be personal.

A lynch of a low poster has the most merit in a scenario wherein the high posters read each other mostly as civilians -- it's POE. In this scenario I think it's a reasonable option, as the one notable "high poster" suspicion I have to offer is Long Con. I'm with family for turkey time today but ought to be able to investigate ideal low-poster options later.

Linkipalooza

LC raised a point in his ISO of/case against speedchuck that caught my attention, and I'd like to expand upon it:

(Basically I would think LC is scum but following such a stupid argument if he didn't genuinely see something in Epi is suicidal)

(And that's a town meta read on LC for me)

This post is problematic. It came on Day 1 when the Epi/LC feud was still the most significant dialogue in the thread. I've used colors to separate the important components. Green is meant to be portrayed as a sort of preliminary disclaimer which is qualified (and reversed) by what follows, but its utility in this post is sufficient to cancel out what follows. Consider the climate of the thread at the time -- Long Con and Epignosis are both fielding suspicion from varying sources, with the former taking the majority of it as the day approached its conclusion. speedchuck's post is supportive of Long Con, but with that disclaimer attached its capacity to change the minds of LC voters is minimized. This is evidenced in the responses that followed from Quin and colonialbob at least. The latter even liked speedchuck in that moment and still voted in opposition to the orange-colored text above.

It should be stated that speedchuck qualified himself in more certain terms sans-disclaimer the next day:

Spoiler: show

(Basically I would think LC is scum but following such a stupid argument if he didn't genuinely see something in Epi is suicidal)

(And that's a town meta read on LC for me)

LC would not have, as scum, taken one of the danciest, hardest-to-lynch targets and formed a stupid argument to try and lynch him. My meta on LC says this sincere, earnest, and suicidal lynchlust comes from a town headspace.

And seriously, who would target Epi as their easy D1 lynch?

Motive-wise, it makes zero sense for LC to be scum outside of tinfoil land.

I'd have liked this more had it come before the near-lynch of LC was finalized instead of in the following phase. I'll also add that this proposed problem may be reliant upon LC being a civilian, as the dynamic changes in a mafia-mafia scenario.

MOVINGPICTURES07/JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
LONG CON
MESK514

tb;ge
bad
good

~ I think speedchuck and malakim handled themselves well in this day phase, particularly toward the end. I'm less thrilled with Long Con.

Alright moral of this story? Jay talks about LC a few times and never in a positive way, but never in a way that was enough to put LC in danger. He maintains a scum-read on LC for the entire game without doing anything about it. Even his death message he harkens back to his scum read on LC but in kind of a weird "I'm disappointed in you way" (again take the salt on this part since it was well into the part where Jay was basically dead already). I think there's a lot of wine here.

[Kylemii]

I think the "hi Quin" is an inside joke between them and unrelated to this game. Quin would be able to clarify.

i think he was just slipping that in every time he used a word or phrase Quin doesn't like

Yeah but the result is p fucking unsettling when you're using the "find in page" function to look for Quin's name in Jay's post and every other mention of his name is (hi Quin!)

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

If I do end up dead, a few parting words:

~ Any civilians who helped to kill me -- it's alright. I don't blame you. I understand that I have been a different player in this game and that is inherently going to generate suspicion. I'm over it.

~ Second, the activity level in this game has been fantastic to this point. The best thing the civilians can do moving forward is to maintain that through the finish. Do not let this game thread stagnate. That is the single best way to let a mafia team get comfortable.

~ Epi and Jack are full of shit right now. Press them on it when I'm gone. I'd also list Wilgy as a premier suspect.

~ My top town reads are Sloonei, dunya, and Quin.

~ I think speedchuck and malakim handled themselves well in this day phase, particularly toward the end. I'm less thrilled with Long Con.

~ Please at least give my ISOs a look, their primary value is as legacy and that's the whole point.

Three remaining scum.

He names 8 players

Epi, Jack, Wilgy - anitown

sloonei, dunya, Quin - town

speedchuck, mal - positive things

long con - negative things

People he did not name at all in his "legacy post":
Elo
Kyle
insertnamehere
colonialbob
sig
nutella
DDL

Three scum remaining, it's a pick and mix. No way he didn't name all 3 of his team mates in that post and no way he would name all 3.

I'm going to start with the people he not name and list them from least scummy to most scummy in my head as of now, with the exception of insertnamehere (insert angry face emoji here)

sig
DDL
colonialbob
Elo
insertnamehere
Kyle
nutella

I wanted to place insertnamehere in the middle, but I actually feel much better about Elo today after reading some of her past civ games, so I'll place him one spot under here.

Potential suspects from this pool imo are:
INH
Kyle
nutella

I'm a little baffled as to why he didn't name nutella amongst "top town read", or colonialbob in any read, especially after his iso of him, since it's (the fact he didn't means he's not even really paying attention to bob imo, despite being slightly pro-bob all game....). I can't extend that same excuse to nutella, since she's literally been a "top town read" in everyone's lists and she was attacking him all kinds of harsh that eod phase. He couldn't have forgotten about her. He wanted us to forget about her. The one thing that clears nutella slightly for me is how hard Jay went after sprityo (my alter ego) for voting for her! He was hoping to lynch him fast and it all revolved around nutella. I feel awkward about that, because a sprityo lynch would be a town flip; and I don't think he'd want to be that wrong about someone over another scum member.

This post is a massive ball of WIFOM and I'm not sure why you'd even try to analyze it.

[colonialbob]

Sloonei, here's the biggest thing about the bus case - I put JJJ in the lead. In my experience, mafia will almost never put their teammate in the lead unless they're an almost certain lynch, because mafia lives are super valuable. I could see a teammate voting him early and hoping the trains end up on different people so he could swap off, and I could definitely see a teammate jumping on to make sure their vote showed up once he flipped. But when I swapped my vote it was far from certain he was getting lynched - votes had been swapping for a while, his vote itself could've been thrown onto speed, Quin was voting for Epi or something silly like that. You swapped, I swapped, then several other people jumped on once he went ahead on the voting.

[dunya]

Spoiler: show

If I do end up dead, a few parting words:

~ Any civilians who helped to kill me -- it's alright. I don't blame you. I understand that I have been a different player in this game and that is inherently going to generate suspicion. I'm over it.

~ Second, the activity level in this game has been fantastic to this point. The best thing the civilians can do moving forward is to maintain that through the finish. Do not let this game thread stagnate. That is the single best way to let a mafia team get comfortable.

~ Epi and Jack are full of shit right now. Press them on it when I'm gone. I'd also list Wilgy as a premier suspect.

~ My top town reads are Sloonei, dunya, and Quin.

~ I think speedchuck and malakim handled themselves well in this day phase, particularly toward the end. I'm less thrilled with Long Con.

~ Please at least give my ISOs a look, their primary value is as legacy and that's the whole point.

Three remaining scum.

He names 8 players

Epi, Jack, Wilgy - anitown

sloonei, dunya, Quin - town

speedchuck, mal - positive things

long con - negative things

People he did not name at all in his "legacy post":
Elo
Kyle
insertnamehere
colonialbob
sig
nutella
DDL

Three scum remaining, it's a pick and mix. No way he didn't name all 3 of his team mates in that post and no way he would name all 3.

I'm going to start with the people he not name and list them from least scummy to most scummy in my head as of now, with the exception of insertnamehere (insert angry face emoji here)

sig
DDL
colonialbob
Elo
insertnamehere
Kyle
nutella

I wanted to place insertnamehere in the middle, but I actually feel much better about Elo today after reading some of her past civ games, so I'll place him one spot under here.

Potential suspects from this pool imo are:
INH
Kyle
nutella

I'm a little baffled as to why he didn't name nutella amongst "top town read", or colonialbob in any read, especially after his iso of him, since it's (the fact he didn't means he's not even really paying attention to bob imo, despite being slightly pro-bob all game....). I can't extend that same excuse to nutella, since she's literally been a "top town read" in everyone's lists and she was attacking him all kinds of harsh that eod phase. He couldn't have forgotten about her. He wanted us to forget about her. The one thing that clears nutella slightly for me is how hard Jay went after sprityo (my alter ego) for voting for her! He was hoping to lynch him fast and it all revolved around nutella. I feel awkward about that, because a sprityo lynch would be a town flip; and I don't think he'd want to be that wrong about someone over another scum member.

This post is a massive ball of WIFOM and I'm not sure why you'd even try to analyze it.

I'm not analyzing words, I'm analyzing names listed. Conscious effort has gone towards naming names. That's very relevant.

[Elohcin]

I just went from 1 simple order this week to four orders (3 of them pretty elaborate) so I'm a little overwhelmed but thankful for such work so close to Christmas.

I just realized that you probably actually do make cakes.

Why yes. Yes, I do. www.facebook.com/LittleMissCakesNC

[dunya]

I just went from 1 simple order this week to four orders (3 of them pretty elaborate) so I'm a little overwhelmed but thankful for such work so close to Christmas.

I just realized that you probably actually do make cakes.

Why yes. Yes, I do. www.facebook.com/LittleMissCakesNC

Link doesn't work

[Elohcin]

Dunya. You put so much time and effort into this game and its shows. You're not only reading this game and posting your opinions, but reading other games as well. I don't know where you even find the time for all this. Your posts are insightful and fun to read. I only doubted to as civ, I think, because you are so helpful -at first it seemed too good to be true. I've definitely come around on you. I think this post you made recently is very good.

If I do end up dead, a few parting words:

~ Any civilians who helped to kill me -- it's alright. I don't blame you. I understand that I have been a different player in this game and that is inherently going to generate suspicion. I'm over it.

~ Second, the activity level in this game has been fantastic to this point. The best thing the civilians can do moving forward is to maintain that through the finish. Do not let this game thread stagnate. That is the single best way to let a mafia team get comfortable.

~ Epi and Jack are full of shit right now. Press them on it when I'm gone. I'd also list Wilgy as a premier suspect.

~ My top town reads are Sloonei, dunya, and Quin.

~ I think speedchuck and malakim handled themselves well in this day phase, particularly toward the end. I'm less thrilled with Long Con.

~ Please at least give my ISOs a look, their primary value is as legacy and that's the whole point.

Three remaining scum.

He names 8 players

Epi, Jack, Wilgy - anitown

sloonei, dunya, Quin - town

speedchuck, mal - positive things

long con - negative things

People he did not name at all in his "legacy post":
Elo
Kyle
insertnamehere
colonialbob
sig
nutella
DDL

Three scum remaining, it's a pick and mix. No way he didn't name all 3 of his team mates in that post and no way he would name all 3.

I'm going to start with the people he not name and list them from least scummy to most scummy in my head as of now, with the exception of insertnamehere (insert angry face emoji here)

sig
DDL
colonialbob
Elo
insertnamehere
Kyle
nutella

I wanted to place insertnamehere in the middle, but I actually feel much better about Elo today after reading some of her past civ games, so I'll place him one spot under here.

Potential suspects from this pool imo are:
INH
Kyle
nutella

I'm a little baffled as to why he didn't name nutella amongst "top town read", or colonialbob in any read, especially after his iso of him, since it's (the fact he didn't means he's not even really paying attention to bob imo, despite being slightly pro-bob all game....). I can't extend that same excuse to nutella, since she's literally been a "top town read" in everyone's lists and she was attacking him all kinds of harsh that eod phase. He couldn't have forgotten about her. He wanted us to forget about her. The one thing that clears nutella slightly for me is how hard Jay went after sprityo (my alter ego) for voting for her! He was hoping to lynch him fast and it all revolved around nutella. I feel awkward about that, because a sprityo lynch would be a town flip; and I don't think he'd want to be that wrong about someone over another scum member.

[Elohcin]

Gonna start with sig:

First off I want to comment that JJJ uses variations of the word "significant" almost constantly. Which made this take a little longer than it would have otherwise.

sig as a civilian pirate was more engaged and effortful in the high-octane Day 1 aboard the pirate ship than he was in this high-octane Day 1. Bad vibes.

I have no reason to read sig as a civilian.

This is the most substantive post in his history, and it's a bit of a hedge with regard to Epi and LC. He's positioned to do whatever he wants with regard to that feud.

Oh!

Re: Jimmy attacking Sig

Not fair to compare early pirates Sig to late pirates Sig and then contrast early pirates Sig with Sig here cause he got real busy irl. I want to hear more from Sig and won't give him a pass all game but still. Not a fair comparison imo.

Jay, thoughts on this post?

Jack's point is fair enough. It is true that sig was busy. My willingness to give people a break for that is limited, because I have seen too many bad guys use that as an excuse to hide from the game thread (including myself in the past). That doesn't have to mean sig was doing that.

These are the only three posts where Jay speculates about Sig's alignment. These all took place in the first two days that we're basically just one long day the first one was part of his puke post that he made immediately upon replacing MP.

The first two posts list Sig as a scumread but do it in a way that requires no follow up. Later when questioned on his pirates comparison he softly pulls back from Sig.

I know Sig hasn't really been a hot topic of discussion lately but I think it's notable that Jay never mentioned sig again after this. It seems to me like Jay was either sowing seeds of suspicion to possibly use for later or low-key play punching a teammate as a distancing tactic.

I read thia post abd think...sure...could be true and sig could be JJJ's teammate. But I also think this maybe be baddie kyle finding a way to put suspicion and attention on someone other than himself. I cannot decide.

[dunya]

Dunya. You put so much time and effort into this game and its shows. You're not only reading this game and posting your opinions, but reading other games as well. I don't know where you even find the time for all this.

I don't sleep. I don't like to half-arse things, so... until you lynch me or scum kill me, I'll keep doing what I can do.

[Kylemii]

cBob's turn now...

Everyone should tell me what things in this thread you feel are most important/most warrant my attention and discussion among those I didn't just address.

I'd be interested in thoughts on me/jack/LC. Also the vote swapping from Epi to Nutella

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

First mention of Cbob, statement is that cbob and Jack are probably not w/w


There is a back and forth between cbob and Jay but it involves other players and doesn't refer to a read on cbob

@colonialbob I happen to disagree with most every D2 read you've posted, so I'm [retty sure I'd read you scum if I ISO'd you. The lack of defense you're getting in this is kinda disturbing.

I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.

Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?

I wouldn't label bob a town read. Question for you: what do you mean to imply with the highlighted comment?

Spacedaisy seems way more town than normal.

Quin seems consistent wit his cc123 performance. ???

I have no sig opinion yet

What is the purpose of this post?

Wouldn't label Bob a town read.

SLOONEI
DRAGON D. LUFFY
COLONIALBOB

good
good
good

Good

Some thoughts from the GTH reads:

~ The recurring meme with these things has been that the player to give the most civilian reads has tended to be mafia-aligned at a more-than-random rate. In this instance the culprits are Colonel Bob by count and Jack by percentage. Before I proceed with this notion though, I want to look back at the numerous other GTH charts I have saved on this laptop. This trend was one I noticed in the earlier stages of running this exercise, and I am not certain whether it has held overall. It's something that should be easy to check.

~ I'm surprised by the even split on Colonel Bob. Through the long night phase he seemed to attract and hold negative press without receiving much support if any. This was one of the more conflicted reads for me, and I may not be alone in that given the lack of consensus.

Gun to head analysis parts that involve cbob. More fact and statistics than opinions but worth including.

Some thoughts from the GTH reads:

~ The recurring meme with these things has been that the player to give the most civilian reads has tended to be mafia-aligned at a more-than-random rate. In this instance the culprits are Colonel Bob by count and Jack by percentage. Before I proceed with this notion though, I want to look back at the numerous other GTH charts I have saved on this laptop. This trend was one I noticed in the earlier stages of running this exercise, and I am not certain whether it has held overall. It's something that should be easy to check.

I checked all the GTH reads I have on my laptop and could find/remember elsewhere. Quickly:

Spoiler: show

2015 Mafia Championship Game 2 on 2+2 The OG GTH reads
Ryker names most civilians - Mafia

Talking Heads
MacDougall names most civilians - Mafia

Turf Wars
Quin names most civilians - Civilian

Hydra game on MU 2016
StoatTime names most civilians - Civilian

Mad Max
motel room and JJJ tied for most civilians named - Civilian and Civilian

RYM #92
JJJ names most civilians - Mafia

Personality Cafe game
No mafia members participated, so a Civilian had the lead.

Pirate Mafia
MovingPictures07 names most civilians - Mafia

Battlestar Galactica
S~V~S names most civilians - Mafia

Economics
Bass and JJJ tied for most civilians named - Mafia and Civilian respectively

I'm not going to bother citing my sources here unless someone actually cares. It's easy to find if so.

Twelve players are named here, and six of them were mafia. That's 50%, which is technically "more than random", but not by a significant degree and with a small sample size. It can also be viewed as "in six of ten games, a mafioso led or tied for the lead in civilians named". The difference is probably more semantic than meaningful.

I won't entirely stick the fork in this idea long-term, but I don't think it's a convincing condemnation of Colonel Bob or Jack in this game.

More of that.

Well I liked this game.

Idk if it made me do better reads but it forced me to make a firm decision on several players. Felt the need to elaborate on Bob (poe/gut/no obvious pairing) and Eloh (feels real in spite of everything) in the moment but choose not to.

I'm following the progression of Jack's read on the Colonel, as the latter alluded to. He did move quickly from a bottom-tier mafia read to a GTH good read in quick succession. One question emerges here for @colonialbob:

In a world where Jack is mafia and you are a civilian, what is the mafia benefit Jack enjoys by reversing his perspective of you in the wake of the negative press you received in the night phase? In this scenario you ought to look like a juicy mislynch steak.

huhhhh....

From now on everything is from his last day so please proceed with ur salt pinchers and your wine glasses in hand.

Spoiler: show

A fresh look at colonialbob

Spoiler: show

We need an eye rolling emoji that I can post here.

Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything? To borrow the words of somebody else:

That's a good enough reason for Day 1 because I will accept any reason on Day 1.

Do you intend to keep your vote on me?

What an odd question.

I will answer it by saying I subscribe to the maxim "Vote early, vote often."

I'm gonna put a vote on colonialbob because he never told me why this was an odd question.

It was early in the phase, and you were asking me about where my vote was going to be at end of day? That's odd to me. The explanation that vote switching was relatively new to the Syndicate eased that concern a bit. I also liked some of your other content, so decided to move elsewhere.

PS traveling today, so I'll try to catch up here in a bit when I'm sitting at the airport. I haven't read most of thread since my last post, just jumped to this since I got quoted.

I've highlighted a bit in this early exchange with Sloonei. Colonel Bob's vote was portrayed to be of the poop fling variety, which is a fine Day 1 approach for content generation and facilitation. I question though whether Bob had real investment in that vote given the highlighted content -- to be perturbed by Sloonei's question, answer it anyway, and in such a way that it essentially absolves Sloonei of the pressure inherent to the vote. "My vote is here now, but it'll probably move so don't worry bae." When Sloonei reversed the pressure in his direction, he kind of tucked his tail there.

Spoiler: show

Speed with the sudden entrance. I like it.

Voting LC for now.

Why?

Science. And consolidating trains.

I don't know what the value of "consolidating trains" is with numerous hours remaining prior to the deadline.

Spoiler: show

As for the cbob and mesk no-vote posts... they're empty filler. Neither of them are in any way real or substantial gameplay. There was nothing about mesk's "dirt" comment that should lead to any alignment decisions. IF you really feel the need to read into it, it indicates a general ignorance or the game structure, which doesn't show as good or bad. And I don't feel like it was even that. Does anyone disagree with this?

Yeah. There's at least as much content there as the Daisy guilt thing. Not gonna argue about my joke though.

(Catching up intermittently, posting as stuff catches my eye, so ignore if I'm outdated)

@Long Con care to address this point since you responded to the other quote of this post?

I don't understand what you are saying, can you phrase it differently please? I was saying that Epi's alignment conclusions about mesk, based on the "dirt" post, are not legit because the logic isn't there... you are comparing it to the Daisy guilt thing, but I can't figure out what you mean by your wording.

You said Epi's read of mesk was not legit because there wasn't anything in that post to get a read off of but didn't say something similar about the Spacedaisy votes because she said sorry she checked in and that apparently meant she felt guilty for being mafia. So I would like you to address that discrepancy.

PS boarded, will be back before EoD to at least skim and potentially change my vote.

The LC vote is qualified more substantively here, with an inconsistency cited. I don't know that the parallel being drawn here is entirely logical, but that's not necessarily a concern. Logic and civilianhood don't always mesh. There's another example of projected vote mobility here, and I'll note that he is transparent in the repeated examples of this. Transparency is nice -- if his strategy is insincere, he is welcoming players to tell him that. That's perhaps atypical of a Day 1 mafioso.

Spoiler: show

Thoughts at the moment:
The initial pressure on Epi was stupid. The bad argument pressure is better but could also be opportunistic. Lean that it's genuine but could be an attempt at sound and fury signifying nothing.

LC not responding to me question even when I pinged him and re-explained bothers me.

Jack is half hunting half doing weird meta talk. Reminded a bit of my first game on the Syndicate (Realms/Syndicate crossover), where he did the similar thing and was mafia. Not as strong of a ping thus far, but something to keep an eye on.

Feeling good at the moment about Quin, Sloonei, and speed.

Don't like Eloh's Epi defense. Don't know her enough to know of its actually something to read into.

Can't figure Kyle. Seems similar to early pirates, but not quite as 'good.

No reads on anybody else.

Late Day 1 stances. I appreciate that they are assertive for the most part, and not bogged down with caveats (perhaps apart from the Jack read, but that's rather nitpicky).

There's a string of posts in Bob's N1 content which I think looks off-the-cuff, starting around the point of this link in his ISO. He is interrogative with discernible direction and purpose. Cool beans.

Spoiler: show

Everyone should tell me what things in this thread you feel are most important/most warrant my attention and discussion among those I didn't just address.

I'd be interested in thoughts on me/jack/LC. Also the vote swapping from Epi to Nutella

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Bob couldn't be called stubborn in his reads. I have seen a few examples to this point of assertive reads revisited and reconsidered, and in such a way that I don't think he looks like he is ebbing with the flow of the dialogue -- it looks more like original thinking.

This rainbow represents a turn though, specifically on Jack. I don't follow what has happened with that read in the last handful of posts.

Vote Sloonei and:

Spoiler: show

I don't like this sequence.

Sloonei

I don't feel you are genuine, and I think your go at Eloh was a try to score an easy lynch that people would find agreeable even if the result was no good.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I don't want to be on Eloh come day end. It could go on Sloonei.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

Soon after labeling Sloonei a dark greenie in his rainbow, Bob goes after him for a specific moment he cited above. This guy doesn't give a shit about being consistent. Good. This developed into a significant exchange between the two of them which lasted through the later portion of Day 2.

Spoiler: show

PS I think Sloonei's ISO of me started with the premise that I was probably bad and surprisingly enough found reasons to confirm. I don't think that's alignment indicative, I think it's a problem with ISOing people you're not neutral on.

If bob is a mafioso and Sloonei is a civilian, he was met with a challenging scenario after the Day 2 no lynch. Sloonei's general credit in the thread improved in that period, and then he made a big ISO for Bob himself. In this scenario, mafia Bob saw his attempted lynch target gain a strong foothold and then turn the sword against him in quick succession. I draw this image to facilitate a perspective of the post above wherein Bob assesses Sloonei's case against him -- that it started from a point of bias and wasn't alignment indicative. It strikes me as a necessary condition that for Sloonei to be susceptible to this bias, he must first be a civilian. A mafia Sloonei operates with a deliberate slant, not an pre-biased mindset. I don't care for this response. I described the challenge a mafia Bob would have faced handling Sloonei's ISO, and this response does bear an appearance of "I don't know what to do about this."

Qualified the same dialogue as confirmation bias

Bob's Day 3 content was largely Jack-centric, wherein he was critical of Jack for being "wishy-washy" and "flip-floppy". Example. Eh. I've never cared for that manner of accusation. I've seen plenty of civilians and plenty of mafia members render it. On a tonal level I think he sounds okay.

~~~

I had more positive to say about Colonel Bob than negative. The good stuff is more of an intuited reception of his tone, assertiveness, and candor in the earlier half of the game. My chief concerns come in his handling of Sloonei's case against him.

Leaning town, with reservations.

JJJ does an ISO on cbob on the final day of his life. Little conclusion can be drawn from the fact that he did it since he seems to have known he was going to die. I'm not going to read through it but I am including it because the fact that he took the time to do it at all is evidence in itself.

Apart from the posts I've quoted, there's of discussion between cbob and Jay that aren't about suspicions aimed at each other, talking about Sloonei and other cases that took place. I'd urge other people to look through the earlier conversations between Jay and cBob and draw their own conclusions.

[Kylemii]

I read thia post abd think...sure...could be true and sig could be JJJ's teammate. But I also think this maybe be baddie kyle finding a way to put suspicion and attention on someone other than himself. I cannot decide.

I'm not concerned by what you think of me. This shit right here? It's finally in my wheelhouse. This is the part of mafia that I play for. Analyzing bonds between players post-mortem, reevaluating players' past motivations after a reveal, dismantling the mafia's plans piece by piece after a hole's been punched through their armor?

Hell. Fucking. Yes. This is my shit.

[Elohcin]

I just went from 1 simple order this week to four orders (3 of them pretty elaborate) so I'm a little overwhelmed but thankful for such work so close to Christmas.

I just realized that you probably actually do make cakes.

Why yes. Yes, I do. www.facebook.com/LittleMissCakesNC

Link doesn't work

https://www.facebook.com/LittleMissCakesNC/

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, here's the biggest thing about the bus case - I put JJJ in the lead. In my experience, mafia will almost never put their teammate in the lead unless they're an almost certain lynch, because mafia lives are super valuable. I could see a teammate voting him early and hoping the trains end up on different people so he could swap off, and I could definitely see a teammate jumping on to make sure their vote showed up once he flipped. But when I swapped my vote it was far from certain he was getting lynched - votes had been swapping for a while, his vote itself could've been thrown onto speed, Quin was voting for Epi or something silly like that. You swapped, I swapped, then several other people jumped on once he went ahead on the voting.

I don't agree with your self-analysis. Your vote might have put Jay ahead in the poll at the time, but like I've already said, the atmosphere in the thread at the time (and really for all of Day 4) was overwhelmingly anti-Jay. The flood of votes that came piling in afterward is a testament to that. And the fact that you've repeatedly turned to this in self-defense is not a great look for me, but I will grant you that my constant attacks have forced you to raise your shields. It's tough for me to be overly critical of that sort of thing when I'm the one causing it. That said, this sort of post isn't going to help you change the way I feel. I'm interested in understanding your thoughts, not a reflection on why I shouldn't treat your vote as suspicious.

I'm still interested in the development of your Jay read over time, as well as any updated reads you can share.

[Epignosis]

No. The word "information" has a set meaning, especially in the context of Mafia.

That's not true at all, thats not even true from an English teacher standpoint. Language is in constant evolution. Words have multiple definitions and in this case information is facts that can be used to inform future choices and decisions.

What facts do you gain from a lynch? You gain a role and an alignment. That is all. All the other facts you either already know because they are in the thread. What you keep referring to as "information" is "interpretation."

I kept asking you what information would have been gained from a Mesk lynch that any other lynch couldn't provide, and you couldn't answer. Ergo, lynching people because it is perceived that information will be gathered from the lynch is evil. It is evil all the time. JaggedJimmyJay just did it and he was bad. He knew better and somehow he did it anyway.

Lynching to get information is lynching to get closer to endgame under the disguise of looking helpful. You aren't helpful. Neither was JJJ.

I'm not going to respond to you on this particular topic unless you can prove to me that you're willing to actually read my posts. I've responded to you about what we could have learned from Mesks' lynch had she been mafia that we wouldn't have learned from Dom's lynch. I've pointed out that I was the earliest to suspect Mesk. You've neglected to pay attention to any of that.

She was not mafia. Even if she was, you wouldn't learn anything except for that fact and which mafia member she was.

What information did 3J's lynch give you?

JJJ's lynch gives us a baseline for figuring out who his teammates are and also which players are unlikely to be his teammates, for example you're not likely to be mafia because you held a strong stance against JJJ over the course of a couple games.

"but Kyle that's not information that's just an opinion, I'm an English teacher so my rigid view of the English language only allows for one definition for each word and the only thing that qualifies as information is anything the host says in host posts"

Not true, Epignosis. Mafia is a puzzle game centered around using facts in conjunction with inductive reasoning to figure out who's linked and unlinked and ultimately solve the puzzle of who keeps killing everyone. Each host confirmed nugget of Intel puts a new pin yarn dot string on that big old cork board that when completed helps us win the game. If you disagree then that's on you.

You keep misusing the word "information," and I am not even close to being tired of informing you of this.

[Epignosis]

I feel you, dunya. It's entirely plaisible we all crossed nutella off our lists prematurely. Her behavior before the lynch was what did it for me, though, and not her reaction to it. She seemed to anticipate that a tie would happen. It's possible this was just a gambit that miraculously paid off. But the question of why she's still alive is a good one. I think there are answers thay don't have to involve her being scum, but it's still worth addressing.

If I were bad, I would not have killed nutella. I would have tried to target more dangerous civilian roles. If nutella is Everest, the trait passes down anyway- so it isn't a net gain of anything.