Phenon: Origins Mafia [END]

[Spooky Ghost]

It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I think technically speaking even if we mislynch today we won't lose the game unless there's two remaining baddies.

Which.... if Hotel isn't part of it then it would have to be a Golf+Delta pairing. If we can be sure that the mafia isn't Golf+Delta, then I think Hotel is our best option for today.

Idk, I'm open to input.

[Julinook]

It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I really am flabbergasted. I still think Golf is good, and so... it's natural to conclude that Delta is bad, but I agree that he's not a solo baddie. But then by POE that means either Alpha or Bravo is bad, and at that point I throw my hands up in the air.

If Delta is bad but not a solo baddie, that would imply that there was only one mafia member among Kilo, Echo, and Juliet. Do you believe that to be the case?

[Julinook]

I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

[Julinook]

I think the Juliet/Hotel combination is plausible too, but it doesn't strike me as a stronger connection than the one with Golf. Between the two I would lean toward the latter more than the former given the assumption that Juliet was mafia.

[Julinook]

At face value I think Hotel and Golf have both looked alright for most of the game. Golf as a civilian read would rest primarily on the frustration regarding the setup and the ensuing exchange with Alpha. I am hesitant to rely too strongly on such a notion, because that kind of thing has gotten me into trouble before. Hotel doesn't have a singular moment quite like that, but the full body of work hasn't perturbed me really.

If either of them is mafia they've played well.

[Julinook]

I am also hesitant to give Delta credit for the night kill choice. Charlie was a consensus civilian read, but not the only one. The mafia have to be wary of doctor protections in this game and will never actually know if the doctor is dead. In that regard I think the Charlie kill makes sense. One might suggest that Delta ought not be cognizant of game matters enough to make that kind of call, and I would like to think that the dude(t) would make a damned post in the thread upon visiting it... but that's still a tough pill to swallow. All it takes is a log-in and a PM with a name in it.

[mention]Delta[/mention], play mafia. The game is on the line.

[Spooky Ghost]

I've been considering Golf as an unlikely partner for Juliet because of their self preservation vote for Juliet on day 1. IIRC the votes were spread out enough that Golf could have voted for anyone else to preserve their own safety just as well.

I slept through the last hour or so of that phase and the polls haven't been preserved so I can't recall the exact circumstances. If I'm wrong about the circumstances in which Golf voted for Juliet then Golf is also a possibility.

Oh shoot but Hotel also voted for Juliet day one didn't they.

[Julinook]

I've been considering Golf as an unlikely partner for Juliet because of their self preservation vote for Juliet on day 1. IIRC the votes were spread out enough that Golf could have voted for anyone else to preserve their own safety just as well.

I slept through the last hour or so of that phase and the polls haven't been preserved so I can't recall the exact circumstances. If I'm wrong about the circumstances in which Golf voted for Juliet then Golf is also a possibility.

Oh shoot but Hotel also voted for Juliet day one didn't they.

I can't remember either. Golf said their vote ended up on Kilo in the end, and I have no reason not to believe that. The vote was on Charlie prior, and Juliet before that. [mention]Golf[/mention], please indicate if this is incorrect or if you placed any other vote(s) on Day 1. Also, can you remember about how the poll looked when you voted for Juliet?

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't know if we can count on Delta to show up and vote on Day 5, so I think today is basically do or die.

[Epignosis]

I deleted two posts from an incorrect account before anyone could see them.

[Lunatella]

They were my posts from the wrong account. One was just saying I have some pretty serious concerns I wanted to get out there before the votes start coming in and telling you what my plans were so when I would be back to get them into the thread. And the second was :sighs: because I realized I posted from the wrong account.

Ok, here is my problem with trying to lynch someone we believe might be a baddie teammate with Delta.

1. Five players left.
2. At least one baddie, maybe 2.
3. Max 4 civs, possibly only 3.

Let's say Delta is bad and has a deep wolf teammate. What happens if we lynch the wrong person?

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

Let's say Delta is civ and there is a deep wolf. What happens if we lynch the wrong person?

1. 4 players left
2. 1 baddie and 2 civs.
3. DELTA IS INACTIVE, so we should assume he won't vote! That brings it down to 1 baddie vote and 1 civ vote.
4. Deep wolf has set up a perfect mislynch of Delta, game over.

Let's say Delta is baddie and has no teammates alive. What happens if we vote the wrong person?

I won't go through the step by step here, basically best case scenario is we see no kill and so we go ahead and lynch Delta. Worst case is Delta comes in and submits some kind of kill or other and we are in the same position tomorrow as today, wondering if we should lynch an active player because we must have gotten the wrong one yesterday.

Let's say Delta is civ and we lynch him today. What happens?

1. 4 players left
2. 1 baddie, 3 civs (all active)
3. Baddie kills someone (giving us some kind of information to go on)
4. We go into the next day phase with 1 baddie vs. 2 civs (both active)

Our absolute best and I believe only option here is to vote Delta. We can't risk the first two scenarios by leaving a likely inactive player in the game.

Frankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

[Spooky Ghost]

Frankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

For clarification purposes, is this a real accusation or are you just saying this to make your theory seem more credible?

[Spooky Ghost]

[mention]Golf[/mention] what are your thoughts on Hotel?

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't think we were ever lynching anyone with the reasoning that they might be Delta's teammate. Delta is a null read.

[Spooky Ghost]

I'm not particularly interested in lynching Delta today because if he's civ then we lose Day 5 no matter what. If Delta's mafia then he's probably not a solo inactive mafia because there was a kill last night. If he is a mafia member with a living teammate then lynching his teammate will put us in a better position to win.

[Spacedaisy]

I don't think we were ever lynching anyone with the reasoning that they might be Delta's teammate. Delta is a null read.

This is blatantly false my dude.

It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I think technically speaking even if we mislynch today we won't lose the game unless there's two remaining baddies.

Which.... if Hotel isn't part of it then it would have to be a Golf+Delta pairing. If we can be sure that the mafia isn't Golf+Delta, then I think Hotel is our best option for today.

Idk, I'm open to input.

The reason i don't think Delta is a solo remaining baddie is that the last kill that happened was generally relevant to the game. Charlie was reasonably cleared of suspicion and not likely to be mis-lynched. I still don't understand Foxtrot, but that's a different matter i guess, since at the point of Foxy's death there were (likely?) 2 mafia alive and at least one of them had read the whole thread.

If you asked me right now i would probably say that Hotel is our best chance at snagging a baddie, whether or not Juliet was mafia he still looks the least good based on PoE... the other alternative is... Delta and Golf I guess?

We keep spelling out sheep sounds.

If there are 2 mafia left and delta is one of them, then there's a pretty good chance that the mafia's kill won't be sent in tonight.

I'd like to propose that we narrow down our lynch options to Hotel and Golf for this day phase.

i wanna point back at some thoughts i had back when we were considering Juliet as a lynch candidate

Spoiler: show

Gonna think out loud for a second.

Delta hasn't expressed any thoughts on Juliet, positive or negative. though to be fair they've only posted 3 times and only talked about echo, india, and foxtrot.

Golf voted for Juliet on day one, I don't see them being teammates. Without flips there's less incentive for distancing, so there'd be no reason to pull such a risky vote with things so close. i think that if Juliet is mafia then Golf probably isn't.

Hotel could be a potential 3rd teammate, assuming Juliets is mafia, early on hotel listed echo as a townread, later voted echo "because why not"

these are the posts where those things happened

Spoiler: show

Not sure what to think of J. Would prefer to avoid that but will vote there if necessary. I'll vote C for now.

Reads after quickly skimming the thread:

Town:
A
G
E

Mafia:
C
F

I'll vote to save G.

Okay, voting Echo because why not. Need to finish catching up and then hopefully can provide some reads. This has been a tough setup to get my mind around.

I think hotel could be a reasonable pick for a mafia team member of Juliet and Echo. I also think that agreeing that 'this lynch seems too easy' and 'there's no opposition to it' is ironically a pretty good way to passively oppose it without being too obvious about it. i'm pretty sure the first 5 posts before and after the night post included the phrase 'we should lynch juliet' in some form. a player other than juliet themself starting a counter wagon would seem obvious and probably result in that players death soon after

i guess what i'm saying is that lack of resistance isn't necessarily a sign that juliet isn't mafia in this circumstance

in that post there^

i still think hotel is the most logical teammate to link to both Juliet and Echo. Golf voted for Juliet on day 1, which doesn't make sense as a teammate thing. I also want to point out that if Juliet and Echo were Mafia #1 & #2 then we probably wouldn't have had a kill last night, since Delta has been MIA. If we assume Juliet was mafia #2 then i think Hotel makes the most sense as mafia #3

I guess the next question is..... would Golf and Hotel make sense as teammates?

Frankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

For clarification purposes, is this a real accusation or are you just saying this to make your theory seem more credible?

I mean what I said. And this post looks to paint me as bad. Only a baddie tries to make a theory "look more credible." I am not trying to make anything more credible, I'm civ and I think if delta is not the final baddie I'm looking at you next.

I don't really suspect Hotel all that much, but he would be my second suspect. Bravo is my most solid townread atm.

[Epignosis]

I don't think there's any help for that.

[Lunatella]

Lmao, nonthere usnt. After this game I will definitely be setting up some protections to prevent this in the future.

I'm voting Delta.

[Spooky Ghost]

2 currently living and active mafia members is the worst case scenario and lynching Delta is the number one way to not be prepared for it.

It feels really sketchy that Golf and Hotel seem to be so against considering that the other might be mafia at such a crucial time in the game.

[Spooky Ghost]

Those posts posit that Delta may be a mafia member if you and hotel aren't both bad. No one is a suspect only because Delta could be bad. Delta doesn't have any relevant links.

[Spooky Ghost]

I want to know why you seem to be so opposed to lynching Hotel.

[Lunatella]

The only way that voting Delta would be the end of the gave is if there are two mafia still living and Delta isn't one of them. And I know I'm civ. I believe strongly that Bravo is civ and to a lesser extent Hotel. Until you started pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta, I would have trusted you more than Hotel but you leap frogged past him. I am of the belief that either Delta is a lone baddie, Delta is a baddie with an active teammate, or Delta is civ and there is one living active baddie. I think it is unlikely there are two baddies and neither one is Delta. If that is the case we are screwed, because someone has fooled me extremely well and frankly they would deserve a win. I don't think it's the case though. You are trying too hard to push us a certain direction. Either Delta is a lone baddie and you are tinfoiling, which to be clear is my first line of thought, or you or to a lesser extent possibly Hotel are Delta's teammate.

[Spooky Ghost]

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

[Spooky Ghost]

But why do you think Hotel is civ?

[Spooky Ghost]

I'm not willing to gamble based on the idea that we might have been right about Juliet, no matter how probable it may be.

[Lunatella]

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

I'm not disagreeing that there might be two left, I'm saying I look at all the players and I think that while I could be wrong about one I highly doubt I'm that far off about two which is why I think if there are two it's highly likely that Delta is one. If I am wrong then it means that either Bravo or Hotel have me fooled.

I haven't been talking about Juliet, we have no info on her so discussing her is irrelevant. I am looking at the people in the game right now and assessing them by their actions.

I can tell you why I have Hotel as a slightly town lean, but you won't like it. I believe I know who it is and I'm pretty confident (though not 100%) that this is their town game. It is a fairly nebulous response, it won't make you feel any better about us as possible teammates. But I am not bad. So in light of that fact, I reiterate that our truly safest route today is lynching Delta. The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.

[Spooky Ghost]

[mention]Golf[/mention] Does your suspecting Delta rely on me being a teammate of theirs, or could Delta be a lone wolf?

[Spooky Ghost]

The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.

I guess my problem with this is exactly that. If you and Hotel are mafia then you'd want to push exactly this narrative, because if neither of you (in that circumstance) gets lynched today then this game is yours. The alternative to lynching Delta would be convincing Bravo or me to vote for the other, which would be significantly harder so.... Delta. Right? In the scenario where you and Hotel are the last living mafias, I believe that would be the best move, or at least it's what I would do.

[Spooky Ghost]

It's late and I need to sleep but I want to point out that Hotel also had a pro-lynch-Delta stance paired with nebulous yet for some reason steadfast reasons for trusting Golf.

My running theory rn is that G/H are W/W. I want to hear [mention]Bravo[/mention]'s thoughts on the pairing in light of Golf's recent posts, but as of now I think that either one of them is our best bet.

[Spooky Ghost]

[mention]Delta[/mention] if you're around we could really use your input.

[Marmot]

I deleted two posts from an incorrect account before anyone could see them.

I saw them...

[Lunatella]

2 currently living and active mafia members is the worst case scenario and lynching Delta is the number one way to not be prepared for it.

It feels really sketchy that Golf and Hotel seem to be so against considering that the other might be mafia at such a crucial time in the game.

I have not said I 100% feel like Hotel is town. I have said that by the numbers the right lynch today is Delta.

@Golf Does your suspecting Delta rely on me being a teammate of theirs, or could Delta be a lone wolf?

I haven't said it was dependent at all. In fact I have said repeatedly that my first line of thought (because I want to trust you here, I really do) is that Delta is the last baddie. But I find the fact you are pushing a lynch of an unknown active over an unknown inactive. The risk in the first is one scenario, whereas the risk in the second is like two or three times as much, just going by how many scenarios lead to end game for us if we lynch anyone other than him. That is what makes me suspicious of you. I know my role, I know that I'm not bad. I think it's highly unlikely Bravo is bad. I used to think that if you too until your recent push. I don't think Hotel is bad but I'm not 100% confident in that. But I highly doubt he's on a team with you so I am left with Delta being the absolute right choice. He's either lone baddie or he has a deep wolf teammate. Before today I would have said Hotel, your actions this day phase make me really question you now though.

The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.

I guess my problem with this is exactly that. If you and Hotel are mafia then you'd want to push exactly this narrative, because if neither of you (in that circumstance) gets lynched today then this game is yours. The alternative to lynching Delta would be convincing Bravo or me to vote for the other, which would be significantly harder so.... Delta. Right? In the scenario where you and Hotel are the last living mafias, I believe that would be the best move, or at least it's what I would do.

And my problem with you right now is you are pushing a very illogical and risky lynch. I know you don't know my role if you are civ, but I do and that is why I am sure of this fact. And if you are the deep wolf you've got to paint Hotel and I as bad because you might have to convince Bravo or the other one of us that it's the other person. So I am I the same place you are. I really want to believe you are tinfoiling but you are making it really hard.

[Julinook]

Christmas stuff is keeping me quite busy. I'm going to struggle to be in this thread much until later tonight approaching the deadline. Some quick thoughts on the discussion at hand:

- At face value, I think Golf's push for a Delta lynch right now looks more like a civilian concern than a con to push a game-ending mislynch. Golf's most recent posts just don't look manipulative to me.

- I don't think Alpha looks bad for being worried about that game-ending mislynch scenario. Prior to the start of this discussion Alpha had stated an intent to view this game through the lens of having two living baddies right now for the sake of maximum caution, and I'd say we're seeing the results of that mindset.

- I examined the Hotel/Golf pairing before this discussion and wasn't feeling it. I acknowledge there is some WIFOM in that conclusion, but it's where I was before. I think that right now, a modification of that conclusion based upon the Delta-game-ending-mislynch theory would fall into the realm of tinfoil, and I am just not inclined to go there.

- If Hotel and Golf are both bad, Juliet wasn't bad (if Echo was). That notion gives me problems. Juliet quit at the first indication of having received votes (without any of the typical civilian guilt-tripping) and said nothing through the finalization of the lynch. That is pretty much textbook for concession behavior. If Juliet wasn't bad, then that was truly a damaging and frankly unfair way to handle that situation. I have my doubts.

- Golf is right that even a civilian Delta presents issues in an end game scenario as a projected non-voter. Consider even a Hotel/Golf pairing: we lynch one and the other proceeds to an endgame phase with Delta alive. The civilian voting power in that phase can only be one vote if Delta doesn't contribute, which means at best the game can only be won in a 1-1 coin flip.

I think we're forced to make a judgment call here, and any decision is going to come with a degree of risk. That's the nature of this no-reveals setup. We cannot know for sure where we stand, but we still have to act according to the theories we develop. We treat the game probabalistically rather than deterministically. So the theory I feel the most confident about is as follows:

- Echo was bad.
- Juliet was bad.
- There is one living baddie.
- Delta is a prime candidate. After that, Juliet and Echo interactions and behavioral interpretation at face value take precedence. Based on where we stand right now with recent discussion in tow, my first guess after Delta would be Hotel. Continual dialogue and reassessment will be necessary through the finish.

I'm going to place a vote for Delta. I encourage you all to keep talking it out and I will try my best to get here early enough to engage it in real-time before the deadline.

[Julinook]

"some quick thoughts"

*writes War and Peace*

Okay gotta go for now.

[Echo]

HOTEL IN DA HOUSE

[Echo]

I don't mean to be a nervous November but.... The mafia kill choices don't seem to be kills made by a mafia that's nervous about losing.

All signs point to you or Bravo then, based on this, correct?

Well..... Not all signs as much as just the one sign. I looked back over Bravo's posts again and it eased my concerns. If Bravo is mafia then he's played an exceptionally good game.

What specifically eased your concerns? What concerns did you have?

[Echo]

It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I think technically speaking even if we mislynch today we won't lose the game unless there's two remaining baddies.

Which.... if Hotel isn't part of it then it would have to be a Golf+Delta pairing. If we can be sure that the mafia isn't Golf+Delta, then I think Hotel is our best option for today.

Idk, I'm open to input.

Wait what

[Echo]

It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I really am flabbergasted. I still think Golf is good, and so... it's natural to conclude that Delta is bad, but I agree that he's not a solo baddie. But then by POE that means either Alpha or Bravo is bad, and at that point I throw my hands up in the air.

If Delta is bad but not a solo baddie, that would imply that there was only one mafia member among Kilo, Echo, and Juliet. Do you believe that to be the case?

I don't think it's likely, no. It's distinctly possible, but I'm not feeling it.

Echo is confirmed bad, Juliet is pretty darn close. If Juliet wasn't bad, we're sitting pretty shaky as is.

[Echo]

I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.

[Echo]

Spoiler: show

They were my posts from the wrong account. One was just saying I have some pretty serious concerns I wanted to get out there before the votes start coming in and telling you what my plans were so when I would be back to get them into the thread. And the second was :sighs: because I realized I posted from the wrong account.

Ok, here is my problem with trying to lynch someone we believe might be a baddie teammate with Delta.

1. Five players left.
2. At least one baddie, maybe 2.
3. Max 4 civs, possibly only 3.

Let's say Delta is bad and has a deep wolf teammate. What happens if we lynch the wrong person?

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

Let's say Delta is civ and there is a deep wolf. What happens if we lynch the wrong person?

1. 4 players left
2. 1 baddie and 2 civs.
3. DELTA IS INACTIVE, so we should assume he won't vote! That brings it down to 1 baddie vote and 1 civ vote.
4. Deep wolf has set up a perfect mislynch of Delta, game over.

Let's say Delta is baddie and has no teammates alive. What happens if we vote the wrong person?

I won't go through the step by step here, basically best case scenario is we see no kill and so we go ahead and lynch Delta. Worst case is Delta comes in and submits some kind of kill or other and we are in the same position tomorrow as today, wondering if we should lynch an active player because we must have gotten the wrong one yesterday.

Let's say Delta is civ and we lynch him today. What happens?

1. 4 players left
2. 1 baddie, 3 civs (all active)
3. Baddie kills someone (giving us some kind of information to go on)
4. We go into the next day phase with 1 baddie vs. 2 civs (both active)

Our absolute best and I believe only option here is to vote Delta. We can't risk the first two scenarios by leaving a likely inactive player in the game.

Frankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie... so unless there are two baddies (again, not feeling it, but possible), unfortunately I think it will be a mislynch. Nonetheless, this makes sense to me. I'm willing to vote Delta just because it makes 0 sense to leave an inactive player in LYLO because that's a death sentence.

[Echo]

Frankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

For clarification purposes, is this a real accusation or are you just saying this to make your theory seem more credible?

Why would this not be a real accusation?

[Echo]

2 currently living and active mafia members is the worst case scenario and lynching Delta is the number one way to not be prepared for it.

It feels really sketchy that Golf and Hotel seem to be so against considering that the other might be mafia at such a crucial time in the game.

Since when am I not considering Golf as mafia? Why are you putting words in my mouth?

[Echo]

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

Preparing for the worst case scenario is great.

Here's the thing though. How probable is it that we have two mafia members left versus one? I don't think it's probable.

[Echo]

I'm not willing to gamble based on the idea that we might have been right about Juliet, no matter how probable it may be.

LOL, this is funny given what I just posted. Well, alright then. But I'm not bad. Why is it Golf?

[Echo]

The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.

I guess my problem with this is exactly that. If you and Hotel are mafia then you'd want to push exactly this narrative, because if neither of you (in that circumstance) gets lynched today then this game is yours. The alternative to lynching Delta would be convincing Bravo or me to vote for the other, which would be significantly harder so.... Delta. Right? In the scenario where you and Hotel are the last living mafias, I believe that would be the best move, or at least it's what I would do.

You're reading either desperate baddie or tinfoiling townie. I can't decide which.

[Spooky Ghost]

And my problem with you right now is you are pushing a very illogical and risky lynch. I know you don't know my role if you are civ, but I do and that is why I am sure of this fact. And if you are the deep wolf you've got to paint Hotel and I as bad because you might have to convince Bravo or the other one of us that it's the other person. So I am I the same place you are. I really want to believe you are tinfoiling but you are making it really hard.

It's not really illogical or risky at all. 2 players suddenly show an unprecedented amount of unity as soon as we get to endgame? That's bad news. This isn't tinfoil. If you can show me evidence that you and Hotel aren't mafia together then maybe that could put me closer to believing in you.

The worst part of this is that even if Bravo and I do work together and align our votes the best we can hope for is two ties, and we have to win both of them to stop the mafia from instantly winning.

[Echo]

Christmas stuff is keeping me quite busy. I'm going to struggle to be in this thread much until later tonight approaching the deadline. Some quick thoughts on the discussion at hand:

- At face value, I think Golf's push for a Delta lynch right now looks more like a civilian concern than a con to push a game-ending mislynch. Golf's most recent posts just don't look manipulative to me.

- I don't think Alpha looks bad for being worried about that game-ending mislynch scenario. Prior to the start of this discussion Alpha had stated an intent to view this game through the lens of having two living baddies right now for the sake of maximum caution, and I'd say we're seeing the results of that mindset.

- I examined the Hotel/Golf pairing before this discussion and wasn't feeling it. I acknowledge there is some WIFOM in that conclusion, but it's where I was before. I think that right now, a modification of that conclusion based upon the Delta-game-ending-mislynch theory would fall into the realm of tinfoil, and I am just not inclined to go there.

- If Hotel and Golf are both bad, Juliet wasn't bad (if Echo was). That notion gives me problems. Juliet quit at the first indication of having received votes (without any of the typical civilian guilt-tripping) and said nothing through the finalization of the lynch. That is pretty much textbook for concession behavior. If Juliet wasn't bad, then that was truly a damaging and frankly unfair way to handle that situation. I have my doubts.

- Golf is right that even a civilian Delta presents issues in an end game scenario as a projected non-voter. Consider even a Hotel/Golf pairing: we lynch one and the other proceeds to an endgame phase with Delta alive. The civilian voting power in that phase can only be one vote if Delta doesn't contribute, which means at best the game can only be won in a 1-1 coin flip.

I think we're forced to make a judgment call here, and any decision is going to come with a degree of risk. That's the nature of this no-reveals setup. We cannot know for sure where we stand, but we still have to act according to the theories we develop. We treat the game probabalistically rather than deterministically. So the theory I feel the most confident about is as follows:

- Echo was bad.
- Juliet was bad.
- There is one living baddie.
- Delta is a prime candidate. After that, Juliet and Echo interactions and behavioral interpretation at face value take precedence. Based on where we stand right now with recent discussion in tow, my first guess after Delta would be Hotel. Continual dialogue and reassessment will be necessary through the finish.

I'm going to place a vote for Delta. I encourage you all to keep talking it out and I will try my best to get here early enough to engage it in real-time before the deadline.

This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".

[Echo]

I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.

[Echo]

Think about it. Alpha and Golf up in here freaking out over the direction of the lynch. Bravo has been in cruise control mode. If there's only one baddie, it's him, and he's content to let us bring each other down.

[Echo]

And my problem with you right now is you are pushing a very illogical and risky lynch. I know you don't know my role if you are civ, but I do and that is why I am sure of this fact. And if you are the deep wolf you've got to paint Hotel and I as bad because you might have to convince Bravo or the other one of us that it's the other person. So I am I the same place you are. I really want to believe you are tinfoiling but you are making it really hard.

It's not really illogical or risky at all. 2 players suddenly show an unprecedented amount of unity as soon as we get to endgame? That's bad news. This isn't tinfoil. If you can show me evidence that you and Hotel aren't mafia together then maybe that could put me closer to believing in you.

The worst part of this is that even if Bravo and I do work together and align our votes the best we can hope for is two ties, and we have to win both of them to stop the mafia from instantly winning.

What fucking unity are you talking about? This is getting annoying. Stop acting like we're the same person.