Phenon: Origins Mafia [END]

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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#551

Post by Julinook »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.
When it comes to the kills I think you kind of provide a counter-argument within your argument: "semi" relevant kills. The India kill may have been perpetrated by a team who wasn't cognizant of the potential for his being oracle despite his stance against Echo's claim. They killed Foxtrot who was a consensus suspect. They killed Charlie who was generally read as a civilian, but only alongside two or three other players. I don't struggle to imagine a "semi" engaged mafia team making these kills, not even a solo Delta.

Indeed if there's an argument in Delta's favor on this front I think it'd have to be "there was a kill at all". That's always shaky though.
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pmIf there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
My concern here is that you're not considering the endgame problem. If a civilian Delta doesn't vote, the civilians cannot possibly win without the aid of a coin flip.

If Delta is a civilian and there are two mafia, lynching him would lose the game. That much is true, and I acknowledge the risk. That's why I feel we're forced to make a judgment call about the likelihood of one or two mafia members.

If one mafia member is more likely than two, which I believe to be the case, then we would be better advised to set ourselves up for success in that scenario. Delta can be the sole mafia and the game would end in victory now. Delta can be a civilian and we won't be stuck relying on a coin at LyLo.

Combine that notion with POE which has left with me with two players who don't have as much or any civilian credibility going for them, Delta and Hotel, and I think it makes sense to lynch Delta now.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#552

Post by Echo »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm I've switched my vote to Hotel. I'm certain this is the correct choice. If you still think Delta is the best choice then I understand. If we already have a solo wolf or we currently have a living wolf who is partnered with Delta then I think lynching Delta is an okay choice that won't lead to disaster, and if Golf and Hotel are actually the mafia together then I get to have the satisfaction of being right, which in some ways is almost better than a winners banner. B)
Dude, it's not me. I'm not quite sure why I seem to be the consensus pick after Delta, but it'll be a good way to throw the game.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#553

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:58 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pm I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie...
Why?
I mean, I really hope it's true, it really just comes down to I think Delta has not been active on the site recent enough to have submitted the most recent kill.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#554

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm
Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:57 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm
Bravo wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.
Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.
The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.
I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?
When there is an "out there" theory in the thread and one of the mafia members (Echo in this scenario) feels the need to talk shit about it without naming anyone, it gives me the impression of there having been a dialogue about that theory (or the strategy behind employing the theory) outside the thread. I admit that it's a rather tinfoil notion, but it's something that I think warrants discussion.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#555

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Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:10 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:27 pm This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".
Hell no.

First of all, what you've done in this accusation is essentially disparage the POE strategy as suspicious without naming it. I didn't just lazily say "m'kay, everyone is town so lynch the lurker". I have put a crap load of analytic content into this thread which describes my reads and how they align to each theory of the game I've entertained. I have more reasons to view the non-Delta players as civilians than I do Delta: this is POE. After Delta, I have the fewest reasons to read you as a civilian.

Recall this:
Hotel wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.
You were aware of my approach and stated your agreement with it. What is the sudden beef you have?

Second of all, regarding the highlighted portion at the top, fuck that shit. How dare you. I have been assessing and reassessing everything I can think of in this game throughout the game. I have been quieter this day phase because it's Christmas Eve and, as I said, I have been away.
Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#556

Post by Echo »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:18 pm Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?
:evileye:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#557

Post by Echo »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#558

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Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:43 pm
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.
When it comes to the kills I think you kind of provide a counter-argument within your argument: "semi" relevant kills. The India kill may have been perpetrated by a team who wasn't cognizant of the potential for his being oracle despite his stance against Echo's claim. They killed Foxtrot who was a consensus suspect. They killed Charlie who was generally read as a civilian, but only alongside two or three other players. I don't struggle to imagine a "semi" engaged mafia team making these kills, not even a solo Delta.

Indeed if there's an argument in Delta's favor on this front I think it'd have to be "there was a kill at all". That's always shaky though.
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pmIf there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
My concern here is that you're not considering the endgame problem. If a civilian Delta doesn't vote, the civilians cannot possibly win without the aid of a coin flip.

If Delta is a civilian and there are two mafia, lynching him would lose the game. That much is true, and I acknowledge the risk. That's why I feel we're forced to make a judgment call about the likelihood of one or two mafia members.

If one mafia member is more likely than two, which I believe to be the case, then we would be better advised to set ourselves up for success in that scenario. Delta can be the sole mafia and the game would end in victory now. Delta can be a civilian and we won't be stuck relying on a coin at LyLo.

Combine that notion with POE which has left with me with two players who don't have as much or any civilian credibility going for them, Delta and Hotel, and I think it makes sense to lynch Delta now.
Alright I guess that makes sense.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#559

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.
I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#560

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm
Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:57 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm
Bravo wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.
Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.
The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.
I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?
When there is an "out there" theory in the thread and one of the mafia members (Echo in this scenario) feels the need to talk shit about it without naming anyone, it gives me the impression of there having been a dialogue about that theory (or the strategy behind employing the theory) outside the thread. I admit that it's a rather tinfoil notion, but it's something that I think warrants discussion.
Oh, okay, I got what you're saying now. Yeah, that is pretty tinfoily, but I get your point.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#561

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.
Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#562

Post by Echo »

I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#563

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.
I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.
I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#564

Post by sprityo »

we will be having a Christmas intermission after today, the night will be extended 24 hours for the holiday festivities
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#565

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.
Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#566

Post by Julinook »

sprityo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:51 pm we will be having a Christmas intermission after today, the night will be extended 24 hours for the holiday festivities
Thank goodness, bless you sprityo. :biggrin:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#567

Post by Echo »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.
Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.
Well, that's sort of my point I guess; I don't think there is a pair. But anyway, like I said, if there is a pair, if I were you I would think it's two people specifically not making a concerted effort at a power play. I guess you and Bravo or you and Golf are theoretically possible in that regard.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#568

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:51 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.
Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?
:ponder:

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf


but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#569

Post by Spooky Ghost »

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#570

Post by Echo »

I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#571

Post by Echo »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?
Yeah, agreed.

I really understand your paranoia though; I keep running through all of you being bad, and pairs of you all being bad, and I technically can't rule any of them out even if I think a pair is unlikely. Hopefully that's not just wishful thinking.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#572

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:54 pm :ponder:

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf


but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.
You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#573

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.
I really don't have any solid reason not to suspect anyone at this point. I came into this day phase trusting Bravo completely and now I only trust him like 70%> I've been away from a computer for the entire last day phase so I haven't even been able to ISO otherwise I'd have probably been an even more paranoid mess, actually.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#574

Post by Julinook »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?
If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#575

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:58 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:54 pm :ponder:

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf


but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.
You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?
It's a new placement, actually, as of right now. POE basically. Your response to my poo thing seemed legit and Alpha has appeared pretty genuine throughout this phase as well. Now I feel like it's my turn to tinfoil Golf, lol. I suppose Golf's suspicion of Alpha did seem a bit forced and the interactions with the "baddies" may be the worst. It's probably recency bias based on which one of you I've most recently interacted with. :p
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#576

Post by Echo »

Well, I have to go. Best of luck. Hopefully the game will be over when I return but I'm not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, all.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#577

Post by Julinook »

Let's hope that Christmas extension won't be necessary. :nicenod:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#578

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:00 pm
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?
If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?
Probably.... Golf? Hotel has seemed genuine today at times and you've seemed genuine forever.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#579

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Also if Golf is the last wolf then the mafia spelled out the word JIG.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#580

Post by Spooky Ghost »

jeg....
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#581

Post by Lunatella »

My current thoughts:

I didn't like the way Hotel went hard after Bravo, it felt like scum trying to cast as much shade around as possible. Franky it made me pause, and in combination with feeling like for a while there Alpha may have actually been just a tinfoil townie it kind of made me feel way more wary of him. But now Alpha is trending back towards this let's lynch Golf or Hotel thing. Which I really hate because lynching any civ other than Delta will likely make this game a civ loss. There is a chance Hotel is bad, but I am not bad. Lynching me will net the civs a loss.

I am assuming your focus on a pair of active baddies is the caution you have been discussing, Alpha. However, I am still of the opinion that if there are two living baddies (which is absolutely possible) it is most likely that Delta is one of them.

I just cannot in anyway imagine Bravo being bad, and from the way you and Hotel have behaved I don't see you as teammates either. Your only risk here is basically me and Hotel but I am not bad. And again, if you look at all the possibilities the greatest risk is in leaving Delta alive. There is only one circumstance in which lynching Delta ends the game and I am 100% confident it's not the case.

I'm clearly not moving my vote.

As for tomorrow, if Delta's lynch doesn't end the game I am looking equally at Hotel or Alpha right now. This is based totally upon today's actions/conversations.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#582

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Golf do you think Juliet was a civ or mafia?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#583

Post by Spooky Ghost »

that's like the third time you've done this.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#584

Post by Spooky Ghost »

If this were a competition for who can fuck up sockpuppet usage the most frequently you and I might be tied. :p
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#585

Post by Lunatella »

:sigh:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#586

Post by sprityo »

Ssssh you didn’t see anything
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#587

Post by sprityo »

Delta has been lynched

It is now night 4 day starts 10pm December 26th, or 48 hours
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#588

Post by Julinook »

Damn. It would have been lovely to be finished with this for Christmas. :suspish:

At least the game apparently isn't lost. So Delta was either a civilian with one baddie alive or teamed with a living baddie. The lynch will be firmly in the hands of active civilians after the night and the game can be won. It's a relief to have a longer night, and I am not going to be around much if at all on Christmas day. Everyone is a suspect and I will go over the whole thread again when time permits before this night is over and see where I end up. I encourage everyone to do the same.

For now, merry Christmas folks! :bliss:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#589

Post by Spooky Ghost »

I'm guessing that based on the fact that Sprityo even bothered to extend the night that we don't have 2 active baddies, if we did then the game would be over as soon as the next kill happened so there'd be no real purpose in extending it.

So it kinda seems like all of the anxiety I had over the last 48 hours was a waste of time.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#590

Post by Spooky Ghost »

sprityo wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:27 pm
So to expand on this now: players will be given a sockpuppet account, the names currently will just be the phonetic alphabet, with portraits being the corresponding character. This can change if people are interested in submitting a portrait of a scientist/bodyguard/normal person for themselves. (It doesn’t have to be good I promise)
I know it's late in the game and the game but is it cool if I change my avatar to this picture of the popular scientist character ALF from TV fame?

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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#591

Post by sprityo »

go ahead
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#592

Post by Julinook »

Golf wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:53 am The only way that voting Delta would be the end of the gave is if there are two mafia still living and Delta isn't one of them. And I know I'm civ. I believe strongly that Bravo is civ and to a lesser extent Hotel. Until you started pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta, I would have trusted you more than Hotel but you leap frogged past him. I am of the belief that either Delta is a lone baddie, Delta is a baddie with an active teammate, or Delta is civ and there is one living active baddie. I think it is unlikely there are two baddies and neither one is Delta. If that is the case we are screwed, because someone has fooled me extremely well and frankly they would deserve a win. I don't think it's the case though. You are trying too hard to push us a certain direction. Either Delta is a lone baddie and you are tinfoiling, which to be clear is my first line of thought, or you or to a lesser extent possibly Hotel are Delta's teammate.
Golf wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:28 am I haven't said it was dependent at all. In fact I have said repeatedly that my first line of thought (because I want to trust you here, I really do) is that Delta is the last baddie. But I find the fact you are pushing a lynch of an unknown active over an unknown inactive. The risk in the first is one scenario, whereas the risk in the second is like two or three times as much, just going by how many scenarios lead to end game for us if we lynch anyone other than him. That is what makes me suspicious of you. I know my role, I know that I'm not bad. I think it's highly unlikely Bravo is bad. I used to think that if you too until your recent push. I don't think Hotel is bad but I'm not 100% confident in that. But I highly doubt he's on a team with you so I am left with Delta being the absolute right choice. He's either lone baddie or he has a deep wolf teammate. Before today I would have said Hotel, your actions this day phase make me really question you now though.
Golf wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:23 pm My current thoughts:

I didn't like the way Hotel went hard after Bravo, it felt like scum trying to cast as much shade around as possible. Franky it made me pause, and in combination with feeling like for a while there Alpha may have actually been just a tinfoil townie it kind of made me feel way more wary of him. But now Alpha is trending back towards this let's lynch Golf or Hotel thing. Which I really hate because lynching any civ other than Delta will likely make this game a civ loss. There is a chance Hotel is bad, but I am not bad. Lynching me will net the civs a loss.

I am assuming your focus on a pair of active baddies is the caution you have been discussing, Alpha. However, I am still of the opinion that if there are two living baddies (which is absolutely possible) it is most likely that Delta is one of them.

I just cannot in anyway imagine Bravo being bad, and from the way you and Hotel have behaved I don't see you as teammates either. Your only risk here is basically me and Hotel but I am not bad. And again, if you look at all the possibilities the greatest risk is in leaving Delta alive. There is only one circumstance in which lynching Delta ends the game and I am 100% confident it's not the case.

I'm clearly not moving my vote.

As for tomorrow, if Delta's lynch doesn't end the game I am looking equally at Hotel or Alpha right now. This is based totally upon today's actions/conversations.
Golf, you have voiced some strongly worded civilian reads on me in recent memory. It isn't clear why you feel what way. Please tell me what has brought you to this conclusion.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#593

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:50 pm
Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.
I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.
I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.
Hotel, this post implies that the suspicion you threw at me last phase was for the sake of pressure given that I have not been placed under the microscope as much in this game. That is fine in principle, but I struggle to reconcile that notion with this post:
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.
This came before I had had the opportunity to get into the thread and answer to your accusations, and it looks to me like an attempt to generate my lynch. Pointedly seeking votes on me is not the same thing as making me answer to accusations. The former represents active lynching effort and the latter represents issuing a challenge for the sake of thoroughness.

How would you reconcile this?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 4]

#594

Post by Julinook »

Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:05 am My running theory rn is that G/H are W/W. I want to hear Bravo's thoughts on the pairing in light of Golf's recent posts, but as of now I think that either one of them is our best bet.
Alpha, you asked for my thoughts on the Hotel/Golf pairing here while you were still strongly considering it as the driver of your vote. When I made my brief appearance earlier on Christmas Eve I answered with my thoughts on the pairing. I expressed a couple hangups: that my prior examination of their pairing required some WIFOM to look bad (and that I felt it was more indicative of a non-teammate relationship), and that their pairing would require that Juliet was good (assuming a bad Echo).

I don't believe you spoke about this prior to asking me to aid you in your crusade:
Alpha wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:18 pm Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?
This concerns me given the likelihood you previously attributed to Juliet having been bad.

I realize that you had stated your intent to handle the phase cautiously, under the assumption that two mafia members remained alive. That is a bit different however from actively pursuing a specific theory of a living pairing (Golf/Hotel) which would have to stand against the conceptualization of the game you had previously adopted (Juliet and Echo = bad).

When you were pushing for a lynch of either Golf or Hotel, did you change your mind about Juliet? Where did the matter of Juliet play into your theory about Hotel and Golf? It isn't clear that you incorporated this portion of the game concept into your crusade despite my having raised the point after you called for my thoughts on your theory.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#595

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.

The way I viewed it was that if there were two living mafia then they had to be H&G, if both of them were alive coming into day 5 then we would lose. If there was only one mafia left then eliminating one of H or G would at least narrow down our suspects list moving into night 5 and give us roughly a 50% chance of victory since Delta, despite being a non participant would still cause that day phase to be resolved by tie mechanics rather than being an automatic win for the mafia. At a time when I couldn't go back and look things over or really analyze anything to a satisfying extent, I saw that as our best chance.

I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.

It appears i was probably wrong... assuming this game doesn't instantly end at the dawn of day 5.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#596

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Alpha wrote: Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:27 pm Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.
In this case "they" refers to juliet
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#597

Post by Julinook »

Alpha wrote: Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:27 pm I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.
I also pushed for a Delta lynch at least in part given the need for active civilians in an end game phase against a solo baddie. This didn't seem to budge you from your Hotel/Golf theory or your desire to vote in accordance with that theory. You came around in the very end, but only when it had become apparent that Delta was getting lynched regardless.

What drove you to change your mind?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#598

Post by Spooky Ghost »

well like you said my vote didn't really matter

I wasn't moved by your push for Delta cus I thought you were wrong. I thought lynching Delta was a risky move, and it seemed to me like you were dismissing the risks associated with that choice too easily.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Night 4]

#599

Post by Spooky Ghost »

I don't know if "change my mind" is really accurate. I changed my vote.

I knew that if I was right about Hotel Golf then we had already lost, my only chance at any result other than a Delta lynch would have been to convince you to agree in my theory in the last hour of the phase, and even then we'd only have a 1/4 chance of victory. That seemed like a lot of work.

I guess it was more like "acceptance" than "agreement".
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#600

Post by sprityo »

Alpha has died in the night

IT IS DAY 5, IT IS LYNCH OR LOSE (LYLO)
you have 48 hours
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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