Mortal Kombat Mafia [ENDGAME]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Tony, walk me through your progression.

How did you come to change your opinion so drastically about so many players?

Let’s play the build a scum team game. I’ll go first.

Dunya
Eloh
Wilgy
Nova
Long Con


Someone give me better.

And I would ask Speed about Nova but apparently he’s about to answer.

Let’s play The Who’s Mafia game, 2.0 edition.
I’ll start again.

Quin
Nutella
Nova
Eloh
Speedchuck / Simon


I’m still reading into Simon. Not sure how EOD impacts that read.

So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).

Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85
JJJ 60
Quin 35
Eloh 35
Wilgy 30
Dave / Dom 29
Nova 25
Lap 25
Made 20
Speedchuck 15
Long Con 15
Kyle 10
JOH 10
Marmot 10
Glor 1

@linki
Dunya and Simon in lynch contention, Simon saved by a weird third train and too many people voting Dunya.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Tony's ISO is pretty meh. Not a lot of good. Nothing bad that hasn't been covered, though that's substantial.

Going to do interactive reads between Jimmy and Tony. Not sure if that'll help with WIFOM and everything.

Gonna read Nutella too.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Or I might play some Jagged Alliance 2.

[lapluie]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

How confident are you with this outcome?

[dunya]

I'm not buying whatever elochin is putting out, my vote will be on her.

I really don't care at this point and won't be trying to defend myself. I have done nothing to help the civs, this is true. And I woke up this morning with my migraine back and on the opposite side of my head and I feel as if I could throw up at any moment. I am so over feelng like crap. So....nope....don't care.

hugs! really hope you get better soon.

p.s. I can sub in for eloh (just kidding)

[TonyStarkPrime]

Tony, walk me through your progression.

How did you come to change your opinion so drastically about so many players?

Let’s play the build a scum team game. I’ll go first.

Dunya
Eloh
Wilgy
Nova
Long Con


Someone give me better.

And I would ask Speed about Nova but apparently he’s about to answer.

Let’s play The Who’s Mafia game, 2.0 edition.
I’ll start again.

Quin
Nutella
Nova
Eloh
Speedchuck / Simon


I’m still reading into Simon. Not sure how EOD impacts that read.

So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).

Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85
JJJ 60
Quin 35
Eloh 35
Wilgy 30
Dave / Dom 29
Nova 25
Lap 25
Made 20
Speedchuck 15
Long Con 15
Kyle 10
JOH 10
Marmot 10
Glor 1

@linki
Dunya and Simon in lynch contention, Simon saved by a weird third train and too many people voting Dunya.

The first one is day 2. Long Con had some posts that day I had a good tone read on and had a solid day 3. That’s a pretty standard development.

I think there’s a good chance exactly one of Nova or Lap are mafia unlike some of the higher chances which I don’t necessarily read as mafia together. But on a broader sense that’s more of the wild card spot where it’s one of 4 different people.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm not a civilian.

I'm not mafia either.

I'm here to counterclaim this shit.

Overdeep analysis of this:

Jay claiming 3rd party, at first glance, seems to be geared toward not getting nightkilled. Marmot's claim then, true or false, is geared toward doubt of that claim. First we'll talk about one's motives, then the other.

If Jay is town, this is an interesting 3P-hunting technique as well as a smokescreen so that he doesn't get lynched before he can figure out the scumteam.
If Jay is mafia, this is a huge WIFOM gambit to throw everyone for a loop. Not sure how this fits with being taken off of the poll, but hidden abilities abound.
If Jay is 3P, obviously he wants to up his chances of survival. Can't win if dead.

I don't buy that Jay is town after this. He's not treating the role that way.

Marmot, on the other hand, is throwing doubt on that claim.
If Marmot is town, he's trying to make sure that Jay's claim does him all harm and no good whatsoever. He's also being marmot.
If Marmot is scum, he's... uh. Doing the same thing? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this makes a little less sense than the town!marmot motive.
If Marmot is 3P, he's infuriated that JJJ found a way to squeeze past the rules and claim his role, when Marmot would have been the first to do that if he'd known. Legit counterclaim.

Now let's talk about presentation and wording.

I'm not a civilian.
I'm not mafia either.

I'm here to counterclaim this shit.

We have a lie detector, probably still living. That lie detector can't do much to warn us of things. But if either of these people were paying attention to the lie detector, or wanted their statements to be technically true, then JJJ would be the 3rd party and Marmot would be the liar.
Don't know how much people care about that. Lie detectors in game with claiming, like I'm used to, are scary as hell.

Something to think about.

I don't think Jay is town. Whether he's mafia or 3P depends on how much WIFOM he's prone to as mafia. And, y'know, his role card.
I don't see a good scum motive for marmot, but it's marmot. He could be anything and still do this.

Most likely to least likely pairings of Jay/Marmot, off the top of my head:
3P/Town
Mafia/3P
Mafia/Town
3P/Other 3P?
3P/Mafia
Town/3P
Town/Mafia
Town/Town

linki: Please visit a doctor, Eloh. This can't be normal. I'll be praying for you.

Mostly agree, but I’d put the X / 3P all a step higher.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

How confident are you with this outcome?

At this point, very.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

How confident are you with this outcome?

At this point, very.

Make your case.

[Kylemii]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I don't believe Jay is Ermac.

[nutella]

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I don't think he's Ermac for a couple reasons but I guess it's technically possible. I think it's much more likely he is really Kano.


Huh, I actually really like speedchuck's analysis. I still agree with Kyle that I don't see the town motive for what Marmot did, but he is Marmot after all and has been known to do weird stuff.


Working on a rainbow

[nutella]

Glorfindel
lapluie
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
Quin
Dave
Dom
novaselinenever
Long Con
Elohcin
Made
Marmot
DrWilgy
Simon
speedchuck
TonyStarkPrime
JaggedJimmyJay (3p)

[nutella]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], your Jay/Marmot analysis makes me want to reconsider my read of you, but you haven't said much about anything else recently. Who do you want to lynch today?

[speedchuck]

speedchuck, your Jay/Marmot analysis makes me want to reconsider my read of you, but you haven't said much about anything else recently. Who do you want to lynch today?

JJJ and Simon.

I was breaking from mafia all yesterday. Didn't post relevant stuff in Fiddler either.
I still see no reason not to lynch Wilgy. Lapluie I still read as town, and I'm coming around on TSP. I don't know who I want to lynch for sure yet, but Made is a person I'm going to review before EOD, Wilgy is an option, and nutella and Marmot have been thrown around for one reason or another. That pool is a good place to start looking.

So, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.

[nutella]

hmmm. not an amazing response tbh

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think Jimmy is bad, not Kano.

Why save Simon? What does he care who gets lynched? Why draw so much fire over this?

Kano claiming Kano is essentially losing.

[Kylemii]

So, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.

I think I see what you're saying, letting players who don't vote might be a mathematical risk going into the next few days, but I don't think they're worth using town resources like kills on.... I think if we have those things they should be used on the Jay's and the Simon's of the world. Mathematically it has the same effect of tipping the scales away from the mafia's reach.

[Kylemii]

it's also pretty clear that the poll removals of Simon and Jay are a coordinated action, yeah.

[speedchuck]

So, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.

I think I see what you're saying, letting players who don't vote might be a mathematical risk going into the next few days, but I don't think they're worth using town resources like kills on.... I think if we have those things they should be used on the Jay's and the Simon's of the world. Mathematically it has the same effect of tipping the scales away from the mafia's reach.

I'm not actually talking about vote risk. Or at least, not immediately.

Let's say we mislynch today. Lynch Simon and JJJ next. One more mislynch would put us at MYLO, with no information about Dave or Dom. What then? If one of them is mafia, do we just HOPE that we pick the right one first? With 2 inactives, it'll be harder than ever to POE it down. It's an ugly situation, and one that I'd rather avoid.
Judging by the fact that there's a mafia protective role, Mileena, I have hope that this can be handled. Because unless we lynch straight scum from here out, it is probably going to be a problem.

[speedchuck]

hmmm. not an amazing response tbh

Yeah, I didn't figure you'd like it.

[speedchuck]

RIP rabbit.

Not sure what to make of all this indie-claiming stuff but it feels like a distraction from scumhunting. Kano needs civs to die so I don't like it.

I disagree. I feel like indie hunting isn't unimportant. knowing who the indies are can help us figure out why people make the opinions they are making, and POE that issh

that said, what do we have on indie-claimy stuffs?

Linki- Dunya's in the game now? who did she sub in for, did she die?
What makes you so sure that simon is bad?
Have we lynched mafia yet?

I want opinions on this post, specifically the four questions Made asked when he came back from a few days absence.

[speedchuck]

*looks at some recent ISO bits*

Yeah nah I'm voting Wilgy

[Kylemii]

made.... my umm... tinfoil(?) with him was that he used an information power on day 0 that would have sent me and Speedchuck some information about Sloonei having an indie identity or at least a non-civ identity. I assumed that when nothing happened and made went back on everything he said that he'd been penalized for talking about it in the thread. His explanation about trusting me and Speedchuck being because we have similar processes to his seemed too disjointed to really apply to his previous claims.

Ermac being present in the thread on day 3, and the recent marathon of people hinting at being Kano, along with the fact that Sloonei was murdered by the mafia, contradicts everything about that assumption.

[speedchuck]

RIP rabbit.

Not sure what to make of all this indie-claiming stuff but it feels like a distraction from scumhunting. Kano needs civs to die so I don't like it.

I disagree. I feel like indie hunting isn't unimportant. knowing who the indies are can help us figure out why people make the opinions they are making, and POE that issh

that said, what do we have on indie-claimy stuffs?

Linki- Dunya's in the game now? who did she sub in for, did she die?
What makes you so sure that simon is bad?
Have we lynched mafia yet?

I want opinions on this post, specifically the four questions Made asked when he came back from a few days absence.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] [mention]Marmot[/mention]

[Kylemii]

RIP rabbit.

Not sure what to make of all this indie-claiming stuff but it feels like a distraction from scumhunting. Kano needs civs to die so I don't like it.

I disagree. I feel like indie hunting isn't unimportant. knowing who the indies are can help us figure out why people make the opinions they are making, and POE that issh

that said, what do we have on indie-claimy stuffs?

Linki- Dunya's in the game now? who did she sub in for, did she die?
What makes you so sure that simon is bad?
Have we lynched mafia yet?

I want opinions on this post, specifically the four questions Made asked when he came back from a few days absence.

@Kylemii @Marmot

I gave my opinions on Made in general right a second ago, Made's 4 questions there made sense as questions a player might ask having only read the most recent posts where dunya was being mentioned. If Made hadn't been around during the time that Dunya was here it would make sense for him to wonder why she is being discussed. Also, all of the discussion about Simon took place during the time that Dunya was alive and Made was absent so it would make sense he'd wonder about that too.

The "linki" part also implies that he was asking those questions in response to a recent post where dunya and simon were mentioned, which could understandably be surprising since when he'd checked in last dunya wasn't playing yet and Simon wasn't a very relevant discussion topic.

[DrWilgy]

*looks at some recent ISO bits*

Yeah nah I'm voting Wilgy

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'll say it again. If Wilgy is town, I'm gonna be annoyed with him.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'd love GTH reads on Tony and Eloh.

[TonyStarkPrime]

How would Made have insight into my role? This is not a possibility which has entered my mind because if he did have insight, he would be less wrong about me.

that's the conclusion I drew from "ask Kyle" "wait not Kyle yet" "actually ask speedchuck"

I assumed he had some kind of one-shot secret power that would get Intel on a player and then send it to two other additional players or something.

Gonna post on Nutella but I want @Made to tell Kyle he's wrong on this (or not I guess).

[TonyStarkPrime]

This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

No kill



Nutella is bad.

Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

[speedchuck]

No kill



Nutella is bad.

Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

I don't know how we didn't catch that. I'm going to a party tonight, but I'm going to look at Dunya's other posts around this and see why she didn't pursue it. I'll throw a vote on nutella for now.

(granted, in a role madness game with 42 roles running about, there could be other explanations, but this is pretty good odds and I've had some scumreads on Nutella already)

[Kylemii]

while I think that is important evidence, it's important to note that at the time dunya posted that there were possibly 2 living civ roleblockers who could have prevented a kill

[Quin]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

If I had a list of players most to least likely to be Ermac based on Ermac's posts alone, he'd not be that high on the list. I didn't get dem Jimmy vibes.

[Quin]

Can you point out the post that gave you the impression lapluie was being manipulative?

It wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...

Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )

GTH I call him town. I've lost interest in my early beefs with him. I don't think his comments about marmot reflect badly on him.

I'm staying in Sydney for a night and then heading to NZ. Gonna make stops in Auckland and some other cities/islands. I'll be back on the 8th.

May I also ask how you interpret Jay’s earlier claim specifically in relation to Rule # 3 for this game?

Cool! Need someone to carry your bags?

I think we should leave that up to Epi.

No, I have three brothers to push all the heavy lifting on to

[Quin]

This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

No kill



Nutella is bad.

Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

well fuck me dead with a didgeridoo, looks like we caught a big one

[Quin]

Glorfindel
lapluie
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
Quin
Dave
Dom
novaselinenever
Long Con
Elohcin
Made
Marmot
DrWilgy
Simon
speedchuck
TonyStarkPrime
JaggedJimmyJay (3p)

wut?

[nutella]

This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

No kill



Nutella is bad.

Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

Nope, doesn't check out. I was going to say that it's quite possible that Dunya could have blocked me on the same night there happened to be no kill, and there are plenty of other explanations, but I am in fact quite sure that my power went through on night 2 so I don't think she could even have been honestly implying that.

[mention]Quin[/mention] Wut wut?

[nutella]

Did rabbit replace him? I didn't keep track of that tbh

[nutella]

No... unless Epi made a mistake bc Dom is still in the main player list and on the poll so I don't think he was one of the replaced players but I could be misremembering. But maybe that's not what you meant.

[Kylemii]

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

in your cool percentile rainbow list you had me at 10 of being mafia, can you please elaborate on that read and how you came to that conclusion?

[nutella]

Oh right rabbit replaced BWT.

Anyway Quin why is that weird? He's in the same neutral slot as Dave. I guess I put a greenish tint instead of just yellow but yeah those player slots are null reads obviously.

[TonyStarkPrime]

This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

No kill



Nutella is bad.

Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

Nope, doesn't check out. I was going to say that it's quite possible that Dunya could have blocked me on the same night there happened to be no kill, and there are plenty of other explanations, but I am in fact quite sure that my power went through on night 2 so I don't think she could even have been honestly implying that.

@Quin Wut wut?

Based on the way Dunya was presenting his read on you alone I'm sure he had some info on you (and he's not the only one), even without the convenient part where he happened to be someone who can block kills on the night a kill was blocked.

@linki I think the meaning was "why is Dom getting a light green read when he hasn't appeared?" Which you answered in a future linki post so I guess this is worthless

[nutella]

Dunya's a she (and so am I, I think you messed that up earlier). Anyway, she didn't have info on me or if she did it was messed with somehow, and she definitely did not block me on night 2. I don't even know why you interpreted it that way since I remember her saying that she wasn't actually confident enough in her read of me to lynch me. Definitely wasn't as strong as an info claim. And what do you mean she's not the only one?

I think you may be reading far too much into some things.

[nutella]

after what happened with sig, I don't feel like making my nutella case till Night 3 if that's ok with everyone. I promise I will Night 3.

after what happened with sig, I don't feel like making my nutella case till Night 3 if that's ok with everyone. I promise I will Night 3.

Afraid of mislynching again I see.

naturally I don't have you as a 100% scum. I'd rather make a case and talk about it over 3 days than 3 hours.

^ [mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] yeah, she wasn't confidently suspicious of me enough to be claiming info. also the only reasons for suspecting me that she actually stated were that she thought my style looked similar to Search For Quin where I was bad (which she never elaborated on), and then my responses to some stuff between her and lap.

Besides, I don't know what you mean about "even without the fact that she had a blocker role." Clearly your theory that she had info is tied to that (how else would she have gotten anything), but even if it was, that's ... not info. If you block someone and then there isn't a kill, like sure you'd consider the possibility that the person you blocked is bad, but it's far from the only possibility. There are far too many possibilities in a game this complex for that alone to cause you to feel certain that person is bad. Regardless, she didn't have info on me, she didn't block me on n2, and she had no case against me. You're conveniently drawing lines between points that don't exist.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Dunya's a she (and so am I, I think you messed that up earlier). Anyway, she didn't have info on me or if she did it was messed with somehow, and she definitely did not block me on night 2. I don't even know why you interpreted it that way since I remember her saying that she wasn't actually confident enough in her read of me to lynch me. Definitely wasn't as strong as an info claim. And what do you mean she's not the only one?

I think you may be reading far too much into some things.

I might have messed it up. I’m bad with pronouns. My writing strategy is choose one and use it. Then later, switch. Doesn’t work so well when there are actual people. Sorry for that.

And I think that’s exactly how strong an info claim is for the reasons others have said. If you have that kind of info in a game like this, you wait it out. Maybe someone has a corroboration. Maybe the next day that someone picks up on it.

[Kylemii]

TonyStarkPrime

in your cool percentile rainbow list you had me at 10 of being mafia, can you please elaborate on that read and how you came to that conclusion?

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

sorry to bug you but I would appreciate an answer to this

[DrWilgy]

I'll say it again. If Wilgy is town, I'm gonna be annoyed with him.

And here's my problem with ya JoH. You feel the need to preemptively state how you will feel on someone's lynching. Your setting an expectation of failure.

Civilians are less inclined to do this as they don't know results. Mafia, however, will do this as they know failure has to happen and seem genuine.

JoH. You are Mafia.

[DrWilgy]

Oh right rabbit replaced BWT.

Anyway Quin why is that weird? He's in the same neutral slot as Dave. I guess I put a greenish tint instead of just yellow but yeah those player slots are null reads obviously.

I wanna know why you think I'm bad. C'mon Hazlenut, I thought we were closer than this.

[TonyStarkPrime]

TonyStarkPrime

in your cool percentile rainbow list you had me at 10 of being mafia, can you please elaborate on that read and how you came to that conclusion?

TonyStarkPrime

sorry to bug you but I would appreciate an answer to this

I thought your day 2 was pretty solid and you didn’t mess up day 3. Those two things alone mean you’re unlikely to be bad, hence the 10 percent. Honestly my read on you isn’t much more complex than that.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'll say it again. If Wilgy is town, I'm gonna be annoyed with him.

And here's my problem with ya JoH. You feel the need to preemptively state how you will feel on someone's lynching. Your setting an expectation of failure.

Civilians are less inclined to do this as they don't know results. Mafia, however, will do this as they know failure has to happen and seem genuine.

JoH. You are Mafia.

Why the contrast between your play in this game and say...Pirates? Or even your town performance in Pirates vs your town performance in Street Fighter?