Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[nutella]

Friendly reminder to send actions in the next 55 minutes in order to level up (first 12 hours of night). Not that anyone else is around right now so I hope y'all have already done them

[Quin]

Oh you meant my vote, not some night power thing... I voted to save my Pegasister nutella. She's town, and she's not up for lynch. I thought I was going to have to vote Epi, but then the Quin vote became the only way. PLUS several people have stated that your ISO is "full of fluff", and that doesn't sound good. What's up with that?

My draft-phase posts were fluff. My okay-time-to-get-my-shit-together-phase posts were not.

[Kylemii]

I'm gonna keep gaining experience and become hokage.

[Marmot]

That is not the main reason everyone is reading Dunya as civ. I haven't seen a single person read Marmot as a civ for anything like "supatown" and JJJ is just doing what he always does. I don't think what Marmot has done qualifies as supatown. I even pointed at that his post count is high but I couldn't recall any posts. He's blendy.

That's your problem not mine. You've already admitted to ignoring Jay's posts, maybe you're doing the same to other players.

I've even posted fireworks! Lots of them!

[Marmot]

You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 176 posts in this game already. I had 201 posts in the entire Buffy game from start to finish. I have been combative and made enemies in this game, I was friendly with everyone in Buffy. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.

Wanna know what I'm about to say?

You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 165 posts in this game already. I had 218 posts in the entire Mortal Kombat game from start to finish. I have been combative in this game, I was friendly with everyone (except Jay) in Mortal Kombat. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.

[Marmot]

Choose wisely mafia.

You had your turn in the day. Now it's my turn.

[Iron_Dwarf]

No lynch is a surprising outcome to me. Epignosis was not entirely truthful about his powers, but I guess this was some sort of crazy gambit as I already pointed out earlier. Still wondering why he chose to execute the stop, because people were building cases on nutella and Quin. Sure, it may be better to not lynch on Day 1 because a civ is more likely to be targeted, but as far as Day 1 cases go it was more than nothing.

[Iron_Dwarf]

About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.

[Iron_Dwarf]

Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.

[Iron_Dwarf]

Inclined for now to give Epi the benefit of the doubt because preventing a lynch on Day 1 where civs are more likely to die is a cogent argument. But he remains on my radar.

[MacDougall]

You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 176 posts in this game already. I had 201 posts in the entire Buffy game from start to finish. I have been combative and made enemies in this game, I was friendly with everyone in Buffy. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.

Wanna know what I'm about to say?

You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 165 posts in this game already. I had 218 posts in the entire Mortal Kombat game from start to finish. I have been combative in this game, I was friendly with everyone (except Jay) in Mortal Kombat. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.

Didn't you die early in MK?

[dunya]

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

I appreciate your tinfoil on me, but it is tinfoil because I am town, and you gotta get over your obsession with me. It's obvious you're a little jealous someone who isn't you is taking over the civ game and you really want me to be scum. I can appreciate that. I'd be jealous if someone tried to lead this game away from me too. I got mislynched in your MK game after having accumulated about 350 posts in one phase. 1 phase. An insane night phase where I had like 25 posts of raps and 1 day phase where the rest of my posts were made, and where I got mislynched. You remember that? It kinda was your game which I replaced into. I was town. It was steered by scum, endorsed by most of the scum team, and pushed by a vocal MacDougall who came back from the dead to haunt me and unprevented (is that a word? it's giving me a red mark under it) by Independent JJJ. You're acting as obnoxious as Quin and MacDougall did there. If you consider Day 0 and now we're in night 1, is it that unprecedented that I would have accumulated this many posts? You're going to argue that post count has nothing to do with it (though it is what you brought forward to accuse me of the previous evening before you posted these results). But I am incapable of posting this much as scum. That's a fact. Another fact is: I'm a beast town machine. I'm not as effective as scum -- this is something RYMers know. I have PDF copies of my scum games on RYM and if the mod allows it, I will send them to anyone interested in reading. In fact, if JOH doesn't allow me to send them, I'm publishing them in a thread in the Lounge anyway and so I've put myself out there and people can stop with this "but what does scum dunya look like" poop.

I knew you would do something like this with me with your exercise, almost immediately after I answered it. The second fact is: no one from the Syndicate has seen scum dunya and EVERYONE has been curious about it (heck, even I am) -- a Syndicate Don will less likely choose me because of how much attention I get and how much I post. A scum team comprised of 2 inactives and 3 moderately posting players wouldn't even be farfetched in a draft like this where it isn't random and someone chooses their team. Why would any don actually want me and Jay on their team?

This exercise has only given credit to people most users don't know and added extra scrutiny to me and Jay because everyone knows us from BOTH websites (RYMers and Syndicators), and myself especially because I handpicked and invited all the new RYMers so I am obviously going to be their choice. If I wasn't, I'd almost be offended. Your numbers mean nothing to me, sorry. Not to discredit your efforts, but the fact I'm Town and the fact you are calling people who weren't specifically drafted into any scum teams in these hypotheticals immediately Town, makes me lose any serious consideration I have in you theories. JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team? These dream teams are developed without thought. The more I talk about this and discredit it, the more I am not concerned, and if people actually want to mislynch me for the second time based on something as weak as that crap, then go right ahead and I won't give two poops if you lose the game.

[dunya]

Oh, and the reason people didn't vote for us is because we're playing more of a civ game than you. Build a case against me Epi. Get me lynched.

[TonyStarkPrime]

TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?

Right now Wyvern raider is on the bad guys team. I don’t know if that means anything, but if it does, I’d rather have the Wyvern Rider on the good guys team.

[dunya]

TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?

Right now Wyvern raider is on the bad guys team. I don’t know if that means anything, but if it does, I’d rather have the Wyvern Rider on the good guys team.

do you think sig is bad? that's the real question.

[TonyStarkPrime]

TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?

Right now Wyvern raider is on the bad guys team. I don’t know if that means anything, but if it does, I’d rather have the Wyvern Rider on the good guys team.

do you think sig is bad? that's the real question.

No

[dunya]

TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?

Right now Wyvern raider is on the bad guys team. I don’t know if that means anything, but if it does, I’d rather have the Wyvern Rider on the good guys team.

do you think sig is bad? that's the real question.

No

what role do you think this army has w/r/t game play then? he's been on the bad army for a while now, but most people townread him.

[dunya]

I think the biggest problem is that we are trying to infer the whims of just one player, and that player could be some oddball who does not follow community trends for whatever reason, which would flush the whole statistics down the toilet.

who's this one player?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I think the biggest problem is that we are trying to infer the whims of just one player, and that player could be some oddball who does not follow community trends for whatever reason, which would flush the whole statistics down the toilet.

who's this one player?

The Don.

[dunya]

Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team?

A Don who wants those town leaders gone? Food for thought.

And I don't think Epi said he thinks you are bad, he asked us to be more careful with our civ reads because probability says it's extremely likely for a Don to want to pick you. 58% of us said we would, and most of those (46% from probability) as civs so we aren't even lying. If any of those 46% of people were the Don, you would be a lock for bad. So your idea that people would not pick Dunya for a bad team is fallacious, they absolutely would, and if they didn't, then town is very lucky.

And I don't think Epi is the type to get jealous of high posters. I do think he is the type to tinfoil and get bothered by someone getting civ read by everyone, though.

[dunya]

When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.

So that doesn't bother me.

It bothers me that you started this exercise and misconstrued your picks and believe what everyone else said.

"Disgusting."

[dunya]

JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team?

A Don who wants those town leaders gone? Food for thought.

And I don't think Epi said he thinks you are bad, he asked us to be more careful with our civ reads because probability says it's extremely likely for a Don to want to pick you. 58% of us said we would, and most of those (46% from probability) as civs so we aren't even lying. If any of those 46% of people were the Don, you would be a lock for bad. So your idea that people would not pick Dunya for a bad team is fallacious, they absolutely would, and if they didn't, then town is very lucky.

And I don't think Epi is the type to get jealous of high posters. I do think he is the type to tinfoil and get bothered by someone getting civ read by everyone, though.

I didn't say civs were lying, I'm saying the exercise isn't foolproof, and look at my post to Epi just above. If I was actually a don, I wouldn't have JJJ or Epi or MacDougall on my team.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team?

A Don who wants those town leaders gone? Food for thought.

And I don't think Epi said he thinks you are bad, he asked us to be more careful with our civ reads because probability says it's extremely likely for a Don to want to pick you. 58% of us said we would, and most of those (46% from probability) as civs so we aren't even lying. If any of those 46% of people were the Don, you would be a lock for bad. So your idea that people would not pick Dunya for a bad team is fallacious, they absolutely would, and if they didn't, then town is very lucky.

And I don't think Epi is the type to get jealous of high posters. I do think he is the type to tinfoil and get bothered by someone getting civ read by everyone, though.

I didn't say civs were lying, I'm saying the exercise isn't foolproof, and look at my post to Epi just above. If I was actually a don, I wouldn't have JJJ or Epi or MacDougall on my team.

Of course the exercise isn't foolproof. It's statistics. There is a margin of error. What the exercise does say is that the chance of you being picked by a don is approximately 1/2, which is a lot higher than what the usual chance of you being bad would be (20%).

Now the question is, how do we read you, knowing we have to balance a coinflip of a chance of you being bad, with your gigantic post count and level of engagement?

[dunya]

I was picked 11.5 times because I drafted all RYMers into signing up for this game and Syndicators are curious to see my abilities as scum after seeing my abilities as Civ. As a general thought. Yes, dunya would be amazing on my team. But let's get deeper: an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe. I've not been drafted that much, but I lost more scum games than I've won. If it really was down to JJJ or dunya, in the eyes of a RYM don, it'll be JJJ and it won't even be JJJ because he sticks out like a sore thumb. Similarly, I stick out like a sore thumb to a Syndicate don. If you believe Dr. White is the don, then yes, me or JJJ may have equal chances of flipping scum. Otherwise, nah, not buying it and excuse me while I defend myself, as the greatest person who knows myself and my alliance, and debunk Epi's shade and logic.

[dunya]

RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.

[dunya]

RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.

[mention]ColinIsCool[/mention]
[mention]MacDougall[/mention]
[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]
[mention]Kenway[/mention]
[mention]Kites[/mention]
[mention]Iron_Dwarf[/mention]
[mention]gwilikers6[/mention]
[mention]rundontwalk[/mention]

I won't defend myself against this accusation in specific anymore. I've said all that can be said.

[dunya]

Now the question is, how do we read you, knowing we have to balance a coinflip of a chance of you being bad, with your gigantic post count and level of engagement?

GTH, am I civ or scum?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe

JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Now the question is, how do we read you, knowing we have to balance a coinflip of a chance of you being bad, with your gigantic post count and level of engagement?

GTH, am I civ or scum?

Civ.

I'm more paranoid about Jay right now, tbh.

[dunya]

an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe

JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.

I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe

JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.

I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide.

You are saying they didn't do that the first time?

Now this is interesting.

[dunya]

an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe

JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.

I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide.

You are saying they didn't do that the first time?

Now this is interesting.

I know for a fact that I didn't.

[dunya]

I just chose players I could do the most collateral damage with tbh -- literally my dream team.

[dunya]

I'm more paranoid about Jay right now, tbh.

tell me why.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Well I know for a fact that I did. Which includes the possibility that my psychological state at the time could make me think harder before picking, but I would follow logic similar to the one I cited.

Of course, the difference between this exercise and the real thing is another statistical imprecision, which is hard to quantify.

I think that is most valuable about it, which Epi wants us to think is not "change the color of dunya and Jay in your rainbow", but "don't be so sure of your initial impression of them, be more paranoid" which is a healthy thought for any civ to have.

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

I appreciate your tinfoil on me, but it is tinfoil because I am town, and you gotta get over your obsession with me. It's obvious you're a little jealous someone who isn't you is taking over the civ game and you really want me to be scum. I can appreciate that. I'd be jealous if someone tried to lead this game away from me too. I got mislynched in your MK game after having accumulated about 350 posts in one phase. 1 phase. An insane night phase where I had like 25 posts of raps and 1 day phase where the rest of my posts were made, and where I got mislynched. You remember that? It kinda was your game which I replaced into. I was town. It was steered by scum, endorsed by most of the scum team, and pushed by a vocal MacDougall who came back from the dead to haunt me and unprevented (is that a word? it's giving me a red mark under it) by Independent JJJ. You're acting as obnoxious as Quin and MacDougall did there. If you consider Day 0 and now we're in night 1, is it that unprecedented that I would have accumulated this many posts? You're going to argue that post count has nothing to do with it (though it is what you brought forward to accuse me of the previous evening before you posted these results). But I am incapable of posting this much as scum. That's a fact. Another fact is: I'm a beast town machine. I'm not as effective as scum -- this is something RYMers know. I have PDF copies of my scum games on RYM and if the mod allows it, I will send them to anyone interested in reading. In fact, if JOH doesn't allow me to send them, I'm publishing them in a thread in the Lounge anyway and so I've put myself out there and people can stop with this "but what does scum dunya look like" poop.

I knew you would do something like this with me with your exercise, almost immediately after I answered it. The second fact is: no one from the Syndicate has seen scum dunya and EVERYONE has been curious about it (heck, even I am) -- a Syndicate Don will less likely choose me because of how much attention I get and how much I post. A scum team comprised of 2 inactives and 3 moderately posting players wouldn't even be farfetched in a draft like this where it isn't random and someone chooses their team. Why would any don actually want me and Jay on their team?

This exercise has only given credit to people most users don't know and added extra scrutiny to me and Jay because everyone knows us from BOTH websites (RYMers and Syndicators), and myself especially because I handpicked and invited all the new RYMers so I am obviously going to be their choice. If I wasn't, I'd almost be offended. Your numbers mean nothing to me, sorry. Not to discredit your efforts, but the fact I'm Town and the fact you are calling people who weren't specifically drafted into any scum teams in these hypotheticals immediately Town, makes me lose any serious consideration I have in you theories. JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team? These dream teams are developed without thought. The more I talk about this and discredit it, the more I am not concerned, and if people actually want to mislynch me for the second time based on something as weak as that crap, then go right ahead and I won't give two poops if you lose the game.

"JJJ and I are really good townies, so why would any mafia don pick us??"

That's a silly argument, because picking you at the very least removes a large threat to the mafia. I don't buy any of this.

[dunya]

well I know they didn't pick me. and I feel Jay's town and they didn't pick him. so silly as it may be, the don didn't do it.

give me a reason why a don wouldn't pick either me or Jay?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think you’re a very capable mafioso, dunya, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see you selected by the don in a vacuum.

We’re not playing in a vacuum though. Your posting rate in this game through three quarters of a cycle has been the highest I have ever seen. By anyone. Period. When you say you’re incapable of 500 substantive posts this quickly as a mafioso, I believe you. I’m not capable of 500 mafia posts that quickly either unless I blatantly spam. Your posts are not spam.

Nobody in this game is capable of that. Not even Epignosis himself. Feel free to try to prove me wrong at some point, anyone.

I am told I underestimate dunya. This is not about dunya. This is about the capacity for a human being to falsify so much so quickly. I have never seen it to the degree that it would be if dunya is mafia. Never in any game. Not even the counterexample I often cite (MP in the scrimmage) meets that standard.

Maybe someday someone will shatter this theory I have. Until it actually happens though I am not going to change my tune. It is the most reliable civilian tell in the book.

Many people have the mentality that “X player can be mafia under any circumstances”, and I think they’re wrong.

[dunya]

I think that is most valuable about it, which Epi wants us to think is not "change the color of dunya and Jay in your rainbow", but "don't be so sure of your initial impression of them, be more paranoid" which is a healthy thought for any civ to have.

I appreciate any tinfoil, I even told Epi that I appreciate his tinfoil on me.

Hell, I tinfoiled on nutella in the Mountains game when she all but claimed Everest too.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm more paranoid about Jay right now, tbh.

tell me why.

I'm not suffocating on Jay.

His civ game here looks way better than in Mountain, for the matter. He is actually saying things. But he is not ruling the town.

It remains to be seen whether that is happening because you took this place, or because he is not playing his civ game. Or maybe he let you take his place so he could blend in it.

I didn't like his vote change at the last minute of Day 1, for that matter. If Quin is bad, we should all dissect Jay.

[colonialbob]

Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

[dunya]

I think you’re a very capable mafioso, dunya

That wasn't the question. When you think of dunya, do you think "capable scum" or "capable civ"? Which alliance do you associate with me the best?

I mean I completely love the idea that people think I'm great as either, but even I know my abilities.

[gwilikers6]

TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?

Sheer curiosity. Do you know what happens when a player joins Rico's army? Cuz I don't. When I saw that we could recruit the players from Badguyia it caught my eye. And I would like the wyvern rider on our side rather than scum's of course, even more so than other roles.

Also the suspicious vote might explain why @gwilikers6 wondered aloud if votes were private

You are twisting my words here. I did not wonder if votes were private. I wondered if viewing the results would make it so I couldn't vote in the poll like it does on RYM. I also voted for the wyvern rider after this, so...

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

[dunya]

Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

[dunya]

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

It is obvious? I don't see the obvious. Please explain.

[dunya]

I didn't like his vote change at the last minute of Day 1, for that matter. If Quin is bad, we should all dissect Jay.

what if nutella and quin are both bad?

[Kites]

dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig
gwilikers6
rundontwalk
Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites
DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8
colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot
TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella

For your viewing pleasure.

@Long Con @Kites @Kenway @Dragon D. Luffy would you care to inform me as to why your colour should be greener?

yellow is the right place for me as of now cos i haven’t got shit done in this game yet

[colonialbob]

I think you’re a very capable mafioso, dunya, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see you selected by the don in a vacuum.

We’re not playing in a vacuum though. Your posting rate in this game through three quarters of a cycle has been the highest I have ever seen. By anyone. Period. When you say you’re incapable of 500 substantive posts this quickly as a mafioso, I believe you. I’m not capable of 500 mafia posts that quickly either unless I blatantly spam. Your posts are not spam.

Nobody in this game is capable of that. Not even Epignosis himself. Feel free to try to prove me wrong at some point, anyone.

I am told I underestimate dunya. This is not about dunya. This is about the capacity for a human being to falsify so much so quickly. I have never seen it to the degree that it would be if dunya is mafia. Never in any game. Not even the counterexample I often cite (MP in the scrimmage) meets that standard.

Maybe someday someone will shatter this theory I have. Until it actually happens though I am not going to change my tune. It is the most reliable civilian tell in the book.

Many people have the mentality that “X player can be mafia under any circumstances”, and I think they’re wrong.

What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

[Kites]

feels at the moment:
I’m comfortable around:
ColinIsCool
Dr. White
dunya
JJJ
Long Con
MacDougall
Marmot
Neutral:
DDL
gwilikers6
Kylemii
rdw
sprityo
Hmmmm... :
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
nutella
rabbit8: the longer he’s gone the more I think he’s just not interested in this game
sig
TonyStarkPrime
Confused:
Epignosis - pls start giving reads on people, I’ll leave you alone for now tho
lapluie - post more
Quin - you gotta do more to redeem yourself
Bad feeling:
colonialbob - changed his votes frequently, almost exclusively between inactive people to invite them to talk - afraid to be responsible for false lynch?
DrWilgy - no useful content, weird dunya vote and no explanation

I hope I did the colors right