Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[colonialbob]

Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

or perhaps we get to convert a scum to town by voting for them and recruiting them?

Estimated probability 0.02%

You are generous.

I give it 0.0002%

[dunya]

Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

or perhaps we get to convert a scum to town by voting for them and recruiting them?

Estimated probability 0.02%

your numbers mean nothing to me.

Scum-to-town conversions are broken. Never seen it anywhere.

Greater Idea has one.

I remove it from the setup when I'm hosting though.

[dunya]

I haven't done a rainbow. Yet.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[1] DrWilgy - Marmot
[1] lapluie - JaggedJimmyJay
[1] rabbit8 - colonialbob
[1] TonyStarkPrime - nutella
[1] sprityo - Dragon D. Luffy
[1] Quin - dunya
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Marmot
[2] Marmot - Long Con , RunDontWalk

----

Not Voting: ColinIsCool, Dr. White, DrWilgy, Epignosis, gwilikers6, Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kylemii, lapluie, MacDougall, Quin, rabbit8, sig, sprityo, TonyStarkPrime

Yknow i really dont want to vote without feeling confident, but ill vote ddl out of preservation if i need to

Why me when there are people with more votes than me? Just for the OMGUS?

I'll let you answer that by answering a new question: Of the people who already have votes, who would you vote for?

Probably not, but you are the one who is catching up 20 pages later.
Is this relevant anymore?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Broken quote sorry.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I lost my train of thought:

Mafia are more likely to vote because they need to appear to be leveling up every phase. Civs are more likely to vote because they want to level up.

Where does that leave people who were around and didn't vote?

This is NAI as shit. Both sides want stronger abilities.

[colonialbob]

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

[Kites]

RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.

@ColinIsCool
@MacDougall
@JaggedJimmyJay
@Kenway
@Kites
@Iron_Dwarf
@gwilikers6
@rundontwalk

I won't defend myself against this accusation in specific anymore. I've said all that can be said.

you’re great playing either side but of course i remember you as one of the greatest scum hunters
i ain’t gonna approve of any voting based solely on the survey

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok my problem with this game is that I have a surplus of civ reads and basically zero confident bad reads.

Jay, Dunya, Colin, RDW and Marmot are all strong civ in my book.

The rest is a huge list of neutral people, included everyone I've voted for so far.

Yeah maybe I'm being a pussy.

I kind of get the appeal of the Nutella lynch but I'm seeing a big, glowing sign with the words DEJAVU in it so I don't feel confortable about lynching her. I think Nutella is one of these people who are just naturally scummy. It's a fact of life, Nutella is always bad until she flips good, or until she is cleared by abilities like in Mountain. I'd rather take my time with her.

But I need to vote, and I don't feel confortable with voting sprityo after he gave me a good reason for his weird vote, so I will [VOTE: Kenway] aubergine

Why? Because he is blending like a boss that's why. His post count is just high enough not to get labelled inactive but he hasn't said anything remarkable all day. Hasn't gotten in any big arguments. His vote on TSP is very low key and doesn't bring big cases.

Wouldn't be the first or the tenth time I see a civ playing like that. But wouldn't be the 50th time I see a baddie playing like that. I feel satisfied with this vote.

I can’t recall what I said and I don’t think it was anything that significant

Something something backstory.

[colonialbob]

I lost my train of thought:

Mafia are more likely to vote because they need to appear to be leveling up every phase. Civs are more likely to vote because they want to level up.

Where does that leave people who were around and didn't vote?

This is NAI as shit. Both sides want stronger abilities.

Mafia already promoted

[dunya]

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I lost my train of thought:

Mafia are more likely to vote because they need to appear to be leveling up every phase. Civs are more likely to vote because they want to level up.

Where does that leave people who were around and didn't vote?

This is NAI as shit. Both sides want stronger abilities.

Mafia already promoted

Oh.

Okay then.

But yeah civs want vo get levels no matter what and mafia wants to look civ so... still borderline NAI imo.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

Any read provided by a mafioso [in a one mafia team game] other than Teammate X is mafia is false. Any post made in the thread with the intent of assuming a civilian appearance without featuring reads is fake. I'm placing them under the same umbrella. It doesn't account for every post, but it accounts for most. The exceptions would be spam and banter, and I don't think a huge portion of the 500+ in dunya's case are either of those.

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

[colonialbob]

What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

Any read provided by a mafioso [in a one mafia team game] other than Teammate X is mafia is false. Any post made in the thread with the intent of assuming a civilian appearance without featuring reads is fake. I'm placing them under the same umbrella. It doesn't account for every post, but it accounts for most. The exceptions would be spam and banter, and I don't think a huge portion of the 500+ in dunya's case are either of those.

You consider civ-reading civs as false?

[dunya]

Spoiler: show

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

[dunya]

this is what my rainbow looks like without colors, cos some people in the world are colorblind and I believe in shared suffering, but I did break them into groups, I'll be happy to take requests on why but only 2 at a time.

dunya

Kenway

MacDougall
JaggedJimmyJay

ColinIsCool
Marmot

sprityo
Dragon D. Luffy
Epignosis
colonialbob

gwilikers6
Kylemii
sig

Iron_Dwarf
Kites
rundontwalk
TonyStarkPrime

Dr. White

rabbit8
lapluie

DrWilgy
Long Con

Quin
nutella

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

[gwilikers6]

RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.

@ColinIsCool
@MacDougall
@JaggedJimmyJay
@Kenway
@Kites
@Iron_Dwarf
@gwilikers6
@rundontwalk

I won't defend myself against this accusation in specific anymore. I've said all that can be said.

Can't remember you as scum, tbh. I have always thought of you as a town player but I have no doubt you'd be great as scum.

[gwilikers6]

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

It is obvious? I don't see the obvious. Please explain.

I get 1/4 of someone's PM to JOH using their power. So let's say you're stealing Colin's vote tonight and I target you. I'm going to get something like: ***a* **l***s***l** *o**

Like I feel like I'd have to get super lucky to actually extrapolate anything from this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

Any read provided by a mafioso [in a one mafia team game] other than Teammate X is mafia is false. Any post made in the thread with the intent of assuming a civilian appearance without featuring reads is fake. I'm placing them under the same umbrella. It doesn't account for every post, but it accounts for most. The exceptions would be spam and banter, and I don't think a huge portion of the 500+ in dunya's case are either of those.

You consider civ-reading civs as false?

Any "read" is false, yes. If it's straight up "Civilian X is a civilian", that wouldn't be false.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig
gwilikers6
rundontwalk
Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites
DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8
colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot
TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella

For your viewing pleasure.

@Long Con @Kites @Kenway @Dragon D. Luffy would you care to inform me as to why your colour should be greener?

Give me the accusations and I will defend myself.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Epi what three players do you dislike the most right now?

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy.

Jesus guy?


Also wow obviously people missed Scrimmage and Star Wars.

Mafia of Unfortunate Events, too. You played that one like a beast.

Though you were civ.

[gwilikers6]

Epi's exercise disappointingly resulted in pretty much exactly what I was expecting, and I'm extrapolating nothing from it.

[dunya]

Spoiler: show

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

that's only like a fraction of my post which wasn't intended as a sole argument, but one notch against Epi's survey results which try to implicate me. His argument ends with with "if 50% of players said she's on their team, why didn't anyone vote for her Day 1 except Wilgy" (first of all, I had to debunk that those 50% were original, 100% honest answers....cos I still don't believe 11.5 players (lol) would all have 100% chosen me. I don't believe that at all.)

Second of all, I know you don't know this for certain, but I know I'm town-aligned and I have a strong feeling Jay is too, so I don't agree with his points at all. I'm his greatest opposition. People didn't vote for me at all in Mountains either, not even 1 vote, and I was a town leader all the way, and that was after I subbed in for sprityo who was a suspect. Answer this: why? Because I'm a good civilian player and convince people I'm civ. I don't care if people said they'd recruit me before the game started. I'm town, and I don't have to accumulate votes based on a survey of hypotheticals which can be misconstrued easily.

am I making myself clear cos I feel I am?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My sadness when everybody ignores Dr. White.

[dunya]

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

It is obvious? I don't see the obvious. Please explain.

I get 1/4 of someone's PM to JOH using their power. So let's say you're stealing Colin's vote tonight and I target you. I'm going to get something like: ***a* **l***s***l** *o**

Like I feel like I'd have to get super lucky to actually extrapolate anything from this.

is that what you get or would you specifically get my pm to Jack? I think the latter, which is more useful.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Why in fuck of all players has nutella started pestering Epignosis after he apparently saved her from a lynching?

Possibilities: Establishment of teammate distance, she is a civ and is tinfoiling, she is Mafia and ... nothing immediately comes to mind.

Given that I am civ reading Epignosis quite hard, this behaviour is a slight civ tick for nutella.

To be fair he saved Quin from a lynching, not Nutella.

[gwilikers6]

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

It is obvious? I don't see the obvious. Please explain.

I get 1/4 of someone's PM to JOH using their power. So let's say you're stealing Colin's vote tonight and I target you. I'm going to get something like: ***a* **l***s***l** *o**

Like I feel like I'd have to get super lucky to actually extrapolate anything from this.

is that what you get or would you specifically get my pm to Jack? I think the latter, which is more useful.

Yes, your specific PM. I was just using that as an example. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong but my hopes aren't high.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

i voted for you because you’ve done almost no effort reading people

Have you?

[gwilikers6]

Why in fuck of all players has nutella started pestering Epignosis after he apparently saved her from a lynching?

Possibilities: Establishment of teammate distance, she is a civ and is tinfoiling, she is Mafia and ... nothing immediately comes to mind.

Given that I am civ reading Epignosis quite hard, this behaviour is a slight civ tick for nutella.

To be fair he saved Quin from a lynching, not Nutella.

Unless nutella was scum. Cuz my role allows my votes to count double when they are placed on scum. Which is why I am very disappointed in the canceled lynch. If one of those players were scum we would have gotten them either way.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Still wondering why he chose to execute the stop

Read Epi's posts imo.

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

that's only like a fraction of my post which wasn't intended as a sole argument, but one notch against Epi's survey results which try to implicate me. His argument ends with with "if 50% of players said she's on their team, why didn't anyone vote for her Day 1 except Wilgy" (first of all, I had to debunk that those 50% were original, 100% honest answers....cos I still don't believe 11.5 players (lol) would all have 100% chosen me. I don't believe that at all.)

Second of all, I know you don't know this for certain, but I know I'm town-aligned and I have a strong feeling Jay is too, so I don't agree with his points at all. I'm his greatest opposition. People didn't vote for me at all in Mountains either, not even 1 vote, and I was a town leader all the way, and that was after I subbed in for sprityo who was a suspect. Answer this: why? Because I'm a good civilian player and convince people I'm civ. I don't care if people said they'd recruit me before the game started. I'm town, and I don't have to accumulate votes based on a survey of hypotheticals which can be misconstrued easily.

am I making myself clear cos I feel I am?

None of this addresses my questions though.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.

Ok if I see one more person saying the list thing is worthless because it's hypothetical I'm gonna flip.

This is like when people in real life say polls are meaningless because they didn't get personally interviewed.

There is math here, people. A real mathematical thorem that says when you pick a sample size big enough, you can actually infer things about real life with a controllable degree of certainity.

[dunya]

None of this addresses my questions though.

Because you're being very vague. You asked me "is this correct or incorrect?" directly, and I said "that's only a fraction of my posts which wasn't intended as a sole argument" and explained what I meant.

It's like taking something out of context and trying to speculate on intent. Context is everything.

Be clear in your questions please.

[dunya]

About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.

Ok if I see one more person saying the list thing is worthless because it's hypothetical I'm gonna flip.

This is like when people in real life say polls are meaningless because they didn't get personally interviewed.

There is math here, people. A real mathematical thorem that says when you pick a sample size big enough, you can actually infer things about real life with a controllable degree of certainity.

It's worthless cos it's hypothetical

No, I don't really believe that. I just don't believe in the weight of those hypothetical scum teams.

[colonialbob]

None of this addresses my questions though.

Because you're being very vague. You asked me "is this correct or incorrect?" directly, and I said "that's only a fraction of my posts which wasn't intended as a sole argument" and explained what I meant.

It's like taking something out of context and trying to speculate on intent. Context is everything.

Be clear in your questions please.

I was clear in my question. I realize you have more to your post/argument, but this part in particular was what I wanted to address. I'm not interested in the rest right now, and I think this part stands alone well enough for it to be addressed by itself.

[dunya]

None of this addresses my questions though.

Because you're being very vague. You asked me "is this correct or incorrect?" directly, and I said "that's only a fraction of my posts which wasn't intended as a sole argument" and explained what I meant.

It's like taking something out of context and trying to speculate on intent. Context is everything.

Be clear in your questions please.

I was clear in my question. I realize you have more to your post/argument, but this part in particular was what I wanted to address. I'm not interested in the rest right now, and I think this part stands alone well enough for it to be addressed by itself.

you're asking me: do I believe in my argument that no one would draft me or jay because people expect me and jay to be drafted.

Is that correct?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It just pisses me off that a lot of people, in real life, tend to disregard statistics completely because it's not exact. Those people tend to be easily manipulated by politicians and journalists.

[dunya]

Spoiler: show

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

This is incorrect.

Have I answered your question now?

[colonialbob]

Spoiler: show

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

This is incorrect.

Have I answered your question now?

Then what was the meaning of this paragraph? Especially the last sentence?

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

[Long Con]

It just pisses me off that a lot of people, in real life, tend to disregard statistics completely because it's not exact. Those people tend to be easily manipulated by politicians and journalists.

I tend to disregard statistics because so many politicians and journalists just make them up.

[Long Con]

And if you'll allow me to get even more conspiratorial, gwilly's claimed role of I guess some kind of cop would be super easy to fake as scum for obvious reasons

This role is almost certainly going to be useless.

It is obvious? I don't see the obvious. Please explain.

I get 1/4 of someone's PM to JOH using their power. So let's say you're stealing Colin's vote tonight and I target you. I'm going to get something like: ***a* **l***s***l** *o**

Like I feel like I'd have to get super lucky to actually extrapolate anything from this.

Are you allowed to post it to the thread? I promise you that if you post a 1/4-revealed PM, it will be completely solved within an hour.

[Kites]

i voted for you because you’ve done almost no effort reading people

Have you?

not really but i can’t vote myself can i?

well i just did the rainbow list thingy on the previous page

[TonyStarkPrime]

Epi's exercise disappointingly resulted in pretty much exactly what I was expecting, and I'm extrapolating nothing from it.

Yeah it was really sad. I’m still working on something cool with it but I have other stuff to do and it’s more helpful when one person is dead.

[Iron_Dwarf]

About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.

Ok if I see one more person saying the list thing is worthless because it's hypothetical I'm gonna flip.

This is like when people in real life say polls are meaningless because they didn't get personally interviewed.

There is math here, people. A real mathematical thorem that says when you pick a sample size big enough, you can actually infer things about real life with a controllable degree of certainity.

My point is that this thought exercise is based on shoddy foundations. And this is not comparable to e.g. a political poll at all.

[Long Con]

or perhaps we get to convert a scum to town by voting for them and recruiting them?

Estimated probability 0.02%

your numbers mean nothing to me.

Scum-to-town conversions are broken. Never seen it anywhere.

Greater Idea has one.

I remove it from the setup when I'm hosting though.

Judge Judy Mafia on Rev had something that was similar.

The Moll - You are The Moll. You are the girlfriend of Gino. Each night, you will help decide who must die. [Secret Role: You are really an Officer of The Law working undercover - you will report certain events to the Detective on even nights via PM to the Host; if you are chosen to conduct the NK, it will not go through]

Preeeeety sure The Moll won the game for the Civs, and at least one baddie was a little outraged at the presence of the role:

Geez if only u knew the drama that went on in the mafia chatroom as a result of your setup, Kahlan. Well I'm sure tranq probably told you already. But, i mean seriously it was bad. But, overall I guess it was a very enjoyable [although apparently highly unfair] game. <_< Sorry again to DH and Tranq for upsetting you guys - But I do feel vindicated in that... I was mostly right, and if you were in my position you would have probly thought the same things. I hope you two stop being mad at me sometime in the future. :P

Hilarious comment when the game ended: "I never played in a game before where you lynched a bad guy every day and it was still this close."

[Long Con]

I agree that choosing dunya or JJJ would be a great choice for the Don, simply to get these intensity-freaks out of the Mafia's hair. I didn't need Epi's exercise to come to that conclusion.

I also agree that dunya's particpation level is likely a Civ marker, as JJJ said.