Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

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Who must be stopped?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:26 pm

Speedchuck (Dunya)
2
11%
Nutella
0
No votes
Colonialbob
3
17%
Sig
0
No votes
Kites
0
No votes
The suspense is killing me (host/dead/non)
13
72%
 
Total votes: 18
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2901

Post by Iron_Dwarf »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:13 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe
JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.
I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. :keys: Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide. :mafia:
Every RYM person is equally cool in my book. :beer:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2902

Post by dunya »

I think I understand what you mean now cBob. Sorry, rushed mafia posting at lunchtime isn't always easy.
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:36 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:29 am
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:23 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:46 am
nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:16 pm

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)
I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.
Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.
It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.
Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?
...no. that's the point.
.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?
Yes--my answer should have been yes. Not direct suspicion of "I suspect you because you are dunya/jay and scum MUST have picked you" (yet), but I've heard it, I've heard it as soon as Epi was done posting his survey results, and I was anticipating it as soon as I sent my picks in and spoke a little about how inaccurate those spreadsheets of his are going to be. Epi himself faked his draft...and he's supposed to be civ. Anyway, you're kind of doing it now, too. If you argue that my argument that no one's going to pick me because I garner a lot of attention is silly, the argument that they would pick me for that reason is also silly.

I'm not saying don't suspect me, because I am a strong player and you should absolutely be wary of anyone in this game. But at least let people have some additional concrete suspicions that I can actually defend myself from beyond a survey is what I am trying to say. The whole exercise portrays me mostly in bad light. Do I like that? No. Is it alignment indicative that I don't like it? No. I hate it. I'm town. Am I going to defend myself against it since I know for a fact the stats are not in my favor, but still inaccurate? Yes, till you are convinced or I am mislynched or NKd, I will absolutely do that. Am I upset the don didn't pick me? No. Am I surprised I wasn't drafted? :shrug: I don't know who the don is and why I wasn't chosen, but I'll be sure to ask at the end of the game.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2903

Post by dunya »

Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:07 am I agree that choosing dunya or JJJ would be a great choice for the Don, simply to get these intensity-freaks out of the Mafia's hair. I didn't need Epi's exercise to come to that conclusion.
do you think it's likely the don has picked me or Jay now? Do you think we could in any world be scummates?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2904

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:52 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:25 am It just pisses me off that a lot of people, in real life, tend to disregard statistics completely because it's not exact. Those people tend to be easily manipulated by politicians and journalists.
I tend to disregard statistics because so many politicians and journalists just make them up.
It goes both ways imo. You can be manipulated into believing in faulty statistics, or into not bevieling in them so you can believe in some other faulty thing.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2905

Post by dunya »

Kites wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:35 am colonialbob - changed his votes frequently, almost exclusively between inactive people to invite them to talk - afraid to be responsible for false lynch?
I called him out on that. He said he was moving his vote between inactives in case he wasn't here during the end of day so that if they were lynched, he wouldn't feel bad, or less bad, since they were inactives. Or something like that. Does that make you feel better or worse about him?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2906

Post by dunya »

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] - are we getting replacements for rabbit8 and lapluie?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2907

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:42 amJackofhearts2005 - are we getting replacements for rabbit8 and lapluie?
Potentially.

My standard (read: made up since this game started) replacement policy is to replace once a day and night phase are skipped. That would mean Rabbit is in need of replacement at the end of the night phase with Lap being 4 hours behind that.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention]

You can't sub in until the 20th right? Are you in contact with Lap outside the Syndicate? Could you ask her to come back and play?

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]

You less busy and ready to sub in?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2908

Post by speedchuck »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:00 pm
@speedchuck

You less busy and ready to sub in?
Are you kidding? This game is on day one and has 59 freaking pages!

Of COURSE I'm ready to sub in! ;airguitar:

(Though honestly I have no idea how this game works haha, still ready to go)
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2909

Post by colonialbob »

[mention]dunya[/mention] last question on this I promise - Did you notice anybody doing that *before* Epi posted his results post? If so it would be nice if you could point it out (not gonna make you go through 60 pages if nothing immediately comes to mind though).
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2910

Post by Long Con »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:37 am
Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:07 am I agree that choosing dunya or JJJ would be a great choice for the Don, simply to get these intensity-freaks out of the Mafia's hair. I didn't need Epi's exercise to come to that conclusion.
do you think it's likely the don has picked me or Jay now? Do you think we could in any world be scummates?
I think it's likely that the Don picked strong players, don't you? You and JJJ are strong players. Epi's data supports that obvious conclusion.

Of course you could be scummates. Am I supposed to have irrevocably crossed that possibility off my list for some reason? What's this "in any world" stuff?? :evileye:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:39 am
Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:52 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:25 am It just pisses me off that a lot of people, in real life, tend to disregard statistics completely because it's not exact. Those people tend to be easily manipulated by politicians and journalists.
I tend to disregard statistics because so many politicians and journalists just make them up.
It goes both ways imo. You can be manipulated into believing in faulty statistics, or into not bevieling in them so you can believe in some other faulty thing.


Also: "beveiling"... seems like a clever misspell to trick a Lie Detector or something. :haha:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2911

Post by Marmot »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:22 am
Marmot wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:36 am
MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:33 pm You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 176 posts in this game already. I had 201 posts in the entire Buffy game from start to finish. I have been combative and made enemies in this game, I was friendly with everyone in Buffy. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.
Wanna know what I'm about to say? :grin:

You literally just played a game with me where I was scum. You should have a better idea of my meta than you are exhibiting right now. Let me help you. I have 165 posts in this game already. I had 218 posts in the entire Mortal Kombat game from start to finish Day 5. I have been combative in this game, I was friendly with everyone (except Jay) in Mortal Kombat. My scum game is fairly easy to see if you pay attention. There is nothing about that in this game whatsoever.
Didn't you die early in MK?
Fixed.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2912

Post by Marmot »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:05 am RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.
I find this direction to be a fruitful use of Epignosis's statistics. Asking players to give reads on the list of players they "drafted".
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2913

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2914

Post by Kylemii »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2915

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Marmot wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:54 pm
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:05 am RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.
I find this direction to be a fruitful use of Epignosis's statistics. Asking players to give reads on the list of players they "drafted".
I agree, which is why I think Epignosis looks fine for having bothered.

"I suspect Player X because a lot of people said they'd draft them." is stupid.

Squeezing rationale for civilian reads upon claimed draftees is a valid thing to do.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2916

Post by Marmot »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:08 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:13 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe
JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.
I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. :keys: Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide. :mafia:
Every RYM person is equally cool in my book. :beer:
Does that make me cool? :mafia:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2917

Post by colonialbob »

Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
I didn't notice that post until you quoted it, but ick. That's a lot of words to say very little.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2918

Post by dunya »

[mention]colonialbob[/mention] so I wanted to check myself, and I went through my early posts after Epi suggested the exercise: I think it was my speculation and foreseeing before Epi's results that had me feeling this way. Kite's made a reference to how easy it is to mess with the hypothetical team names, and it triggered another response from me because I was dreading what would happen after seeing my name on most people's lists. Both posts below show my opinion on the exercise before Epi revealed what the survey results were and his intentions behind them: (I stopped looking, because I have too many posts, but this was until page 6 of my iso).
dunya wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:56 pm
dunya wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:52 pm
Epignosis wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:47 pm For me:

dunya
JaggedJimmyJay
Long Con
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K, I see what you're doing, but it's full of WIFOM.
For example: I may say I would have Jay on my team, because that would be the dream team, but realistically, if I really was chosen as the don, I probably would think of how great an implication me flipping would have on Jay as a teammate and would instead leave him out, etc.

In the end, my team wouldn't consist of vocal town leaders and mafia masterminds (imo). It would be a great big mix and people I wouldn't implicate when I flip as the don. Even if I did it randomly, I'd tweak it.
dunya wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:59 am The "who would your mates be?" is not common, but since this is the first drafting type game we've played on here, I don't know how normal this exercise is and whether it's scum/town beneficial. I don't like it, and I feel like he's working on a spreadsheet and will recommend to lynch players whose names came up the most which means nothing when WIFOM exists.
also, while not a rainbow, I have provided a read on syndicate users entirely at your request (I don't blame you for forgetting, I forgot too), and you asked me to elaborate on Marmot and sprityo, and I did.
dunya wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:26 pm
colonialbob wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:22 pm @dunya what are your reads on non-RYM folks?
colonialbob - civvish
Dragon D. Luffy - civ
Dr. White - iffy
DrWilgy - neutral
Epignosis - woman hater
Kylemii - civ
lapluie - iffy
Long Con - neutral
Marmot - civ
nutella - neutral
Quin - neutral
rabbit8 - neutral
sig - civvish
sprityo - civ
TonyStarkPrime - iffy
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2919

Post by colonialbob »

Right right. Ty. :)
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2920

Post by Marmot »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
I had 719 posts as mafia in Death Note.
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The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2921

Post by dunya »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
did you have to look those numbers up or...

fun fact for y'all. A few months ago I did a myers briggs personality test, and told Jay my result. Spacedaisy and I were talking yesterday and she asked me if I knew my myers briggs result and I was like, whoa, I completely forgot even though I did it like 5 months ago. and then I told her, wait I'll ask Jay, maybe he remembers???? It took him like 20 seconds to remember what mine was. I swear, the guy is not human.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2922

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:13 pm did you have to look those numbers up or...
No ma'am. :slick:

Marmot, your Death Note count might be in the top three. MP had 770 in the scrimmage. I don't know off-hand if there are other competitors.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2923

Post by colonialbob »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
https://xkcd.com/605/

I take your point, but I'd also expect D0/1 to be the easiest for mafia to keep up this amount of posting. I'm not town-clearing anybody based on one phase of post volume, not matter how prolific, sorry. I'll keep reading dunya for what she posts, not how much she posts.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2924

Post by Iron_Dwarf »

Marmot wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:02 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:08 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:13 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe
JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.
I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. :keys: Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide. :mafia:
Every RYM person is equally cool in my book. :beer:
Does that make me cool? :mafia:
If you're on RYM yes. If you join RYM just now, also yes. :beer:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2925

Post by dunya »

Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:44 pm
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:37 am
Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:07 am I agree that choosing dunya or JJJ would be a great choice for the Don, simply to get these intensity-freaks out of the Mafia's hair. I didn't need Epi's exercise to come to that conclusion.
do you think it's likely the don has picked me or Jay now? Do you think we could in any world be scummates?
I think it's likely that the Don picked strong players, don't you? You and JJJ are strong players. Epi's data supports that obvious conclusion.

Of course you could be scummates. Am I supposed to have irrevocably crossed that possibility off my list for some reason? What's this "in any world" stuff?? :evileye:
I just want to know what your opinion is. So you are saying it is likely that either myself or Jay have been drafted to the scum team now, and what's also plausible is that we are scummates in this game. Is that correct?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2926

Post by Iron_Dwarf »

Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2927

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:18 pm https://xkcd.com/605/
I'm aware, that's why I halved her pace for the extrapolation. :meany:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2928

Post by Kylemii »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.
sorry, I'll clarify. don't you also run the risk that Colin is scum?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2929

Post by dunya »

colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:18 pm I take your point, but I'd also expect D0/1 to be the easiest for mafia to keep up this amount of posting. I'm not town-clearing anybody based on one phase of post volume, not matter how prolific, sorry. I'll keep reading dunya for what she posts, not how much she posts.
Thank you. That's honestly all I want.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2930

Post by Iron_Dwarf »

Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:26 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.
sorry, I'll clarify. don't you also run the risk that Colin is scum?
Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2931

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2932

Post by dunya »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:26 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.
sorry, I'll clarify. don't you also run the risk that Colin is scum?
Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
what has pinged you about me, other than my post count pls?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2933

Post by dunya »

jay, don't ninja me.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2934

Post by colonialbob »

Guys I think y'all are missing the point of the poll. Thieves are alright but recruiting that Myrmidon early and promoting him into the crit machine swordmaster is a way better idea.

(disclaimer, most of my FE experience is actually with the copycat Battle for Wesnoth so)
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2935

Post by Kylemii »

colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm Guys I think y'all are missing the point of the poll. Thieves are alright but recruiting that Myrmidon early and promoting him into the crit machine swordmaster is a way better idea.

(disclaimer, most of my FE experience is actually with the copycat Battle for Wesnoth so)
does being in an army speed up experience gain?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2936

Post by Iron_Dwarf »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:32 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?
In short, it's hard to get a read on dunya. Her post count is insanely high and because of this she is steering a lot of the conversation. I feel like people are a bit too eager to give her a free pass as (super) town.

I'd like to point out again that this is a minor concern that makes me put her in green/orange territory. I'm not reading her as scum atm, but she's not out of the woods yet.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2937

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:32 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?
In short, it's hard to get a read on dunya. Her post count is insanely high and because of this she is steering a lot of the conversation. I feel like people are a bit too eager to give her a free pass as (super) town.

I'd like to point out again that this is a minor concern that makes me put her in green/orange territory. I'm not reading her as scum atm, but she's not out of the woods yet.
How do you read me?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2938

Post by colonialbob »

Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:42 pm
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm Guys I think y'all are missing the point of the poll. Thieves are alright but recruiting that Myrmidon early and promoting him into the crit machine swordmaster is a way better idea.

(disclaimer, most of my FE experience is actually with the copycat Battle for Wesnoth so)
does being in an army speed up experience gain?
No idea! My post probably should have been in sarc tags or something, it wasn't serious. (Although I do have a strong town read on DDL I'm not convinced this poll actually means much if anything.)
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2939

Post by Marmot »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:25 pm
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:18 pm https://xkcd.com/605/
I'm aware, that's why I halved her pace for the extrapolation. :meany:
Half the husbands is still over 2 dozen.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2940

Post by ColinIsCool »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:05 am RYMers: please help me out here. Would you call me a great scum player or a great town leader? Be honest, I won't be angry. No one here from The Syndicate has seen me as scum yet and they're questioning my alliance based on my abilities to post 500+ in a game by Night 1 as scum.
I have no memory of playing with you as scum so if I were to pick you it wouldn't have had anything to do with metas. Honestly I'm sympathetic to the notion of picking both you and JJJ as scum, because as prolific townies that seems exactly the kind of terrifying thing nobody would engage with for more than a second, but like I said I would have picked my team at random.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2941

Post by Kylemii »

colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:42 pm
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm Guys I think y'all are missing the point of the poll. Thieves are alright but recruiting that Myrmidon early and promoting him into the crit machine swordmaster is a way better idea.

(disclaimer, most of my FE experience is actually with the copycat Battle for Wesnoth so)
does being in an army speed up experience gain?
No idea! My post probably should have been in sarc tags or something, it wasn't serious. (Although I do have a strong town read on DDL I'm not convinced this poll actually means much if anything.)
I think armies will probably mean something later on in the game. We just don't have enough information to understand it yet.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2942

Post by Long Con »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm
Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:44 pm
dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:37 am
Long Con wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:07 am I agree that choosing dunya or JJJ would be a great choice for the Don, simply to get these intensity-freaks out of the Mafia's hair. I didn't need Epi's exercise to come to that conclusion.
do you think it's likely the don has picked me or Jay now? Do you think we could in any world be scummates?
I think it's likely that the Don picked strong players, don't you? You and JJJ are strong players. Epi's data supports that obvious conclusion.

Of course you could be scummates. Am I supposed to have irrevocably crossed that possibility off my list for some reason? What's this "in any world" stuff?? :evileye:
I just want to know what your opinion is. So you are saying it is likely that either myself or Jay have been drafted to the scum team now, and what's also plausible is that we are scummates in this game. Is that correct?
Yes, that is correct. If the only information we would ever have to go on is that one player handpicked a team, I would pick the strongest players and vote them in descending order of perceived strength.
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gwilikers6
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2943

Post by gwilikers6 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
You guys are fucking insane.
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ColinIsCool
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2944

Post by ColinIsCool »

nutella wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:31 am I don't understand why, if he's worried about later teammate speculation, the current analysis has assuaged his fears, because it absolutely does not preclude, and indeed paves the way for, said later speculation.
It's hard for me to say what the bad version of Epignosis' conclusions would look like, but something that I wouldn't agree with is a call-to-arms to lynch somebody (now or in the future) based on it without compelling evidence. What is does do is merely bring up discussion. What I'm not seeing is why my behavior looks so strange to you here - if I'm scum, what's my game?
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dunya
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2945

Post by dunya »

gwilikers6 wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
You guys are fucking insane.
:scared: I know. Seeing those numbers makes me want to go on a holiday and drop this game.
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Kylemii
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2946

Post by Kylemii »

[mention]dunya[/mention] how confident are you about your civ read on kenway?
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sprityo
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2947

Post by sprityo »

No one took me up on my offer earlier so I’ll say this as a statement:

While epi has 10.5 people saying Dunya would be on their mafia team, I don’t think it correlates to her actually being on it. I had thought about it last night and I’ve forgotten now what my case was but essentially it was like “they want Dunya to be mafia, but that isn’t the case” ugh it frustrates me I can’t remember the exact wording of it, but essentially I don’t think the lower numbers correlate better towards mafia alignment.

Hrnnngh, okay like so you would want to put people on your “Don list” that you know are just strong players overall but the mafia more so avoided their teammates im sure. I think in the end the statistics are nice to look at but there’s nothing groundbreaking we can learn from it
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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dunya
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2948

Post by dunya »

Kylemii wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:50 pm @dunya how confident are you about your civ read on kenway?
I posted a color blind-friendly rainbow. After your truly, Kenway is town.
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dunya
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2949

Post by dunya »

sprityo wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:53 pm No one took me up on my offer earlier so I’ll say this as a statement:

While epi has 10.5 people saying Dunya would be on their mafia team, I don’t think it correlates to her actually being on it. I had thought about it last night and I’ve forgotten now what my case was but essentially it was like “they want Dunya to be mafia, but that isn’t the case” ugh it frustrates me I can’t remember the exact wording of it, but essentially I don’t think the lower numbers correlate better towards mafia alignment.

Hrnnngh, okay like so you would want to put people on your “Don list” that you know are just strong players overall but the mafia more so avoided their teammates im sure. I think in the end the statistics are nice to look at but there’s nothing groundbreaking we can learn from it
I know why I trust you, why do you trust me, though?
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dunya
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2950

Post by dunya »

dunya wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:00 pm
sprityo wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:53 pm No one took me up on my offer earlier so I’ll say this as a statement:

While epi has 10.5 people saying Dunya would be on their mafia team, I don’t think it correlates to her actually being on it. I had thought about it last night and I’ve forgotten now what my case was but essentially it was like “they want Dunya to be mafia, but that isn’t the case” ugh it frustrates me I can’t remember the exact wording of it, but essentially I don’t think the lower numbers correlate better towards mafia alignment.

Hrnnngh, okay like so you would want to put people on your “Don list” that you know are just strong players overall but the mafia more so avoided their teammates im sure. I think in the end the statistics are nice to look at but there’s nothing groundbreaking we can learn from it
I know why I trust you, why do you trust me, though?
I actually thought you were Kenway for some reason, but the question still applies.
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