Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Kylemii]

I think Epi's statistics just sorta.... solidified things we already knew. We already knew that Dunya and jay would be on a lot of lists because they're prolific players in both of the communities this game is built out of. That doesn't mean we should ignore our actual reads on those players, the don might have kept in mind that Jay or Dunya being well known and popular would make them quick targets for attention (and powers) and avoided them. Likewise, a player who no one picked hypothetically isn't gauranteed to not have been picked, since the don might have taken that exact thing into account.

It's a guide book, not an instruction pamphlet. The statistics can inform our choices but they should never determine them.

[Iron_Dwarf]

Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.

What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?

In short, it's hard to get a read on dunya. Her post count is insanely high and because of this she is steering a lot of the conversation. I feel like people are a bit too eager to give her a free pass as (super) town.

I'd like to point out again that this is a minor concern that makes me put her in green/orange territory. I'm not reading her as scum atm, but she's not out of the woods yet.

How do you read me?

You are very analytical and putting people under a lot of scrutiny. Town.

[dunya]

You are very analytical and putting people under a lot of scrutiny. Town.

Name 3 people Jay has put under a lot of scrutiny. Go.

[rundontwalk]

End dat night

[dunya]

night ends in about 2 hours if the poll is accurate.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

20 cool points to be awarded to the first person to ISO Dr. White's posts and actually say something. I am yelling underwater here. The only person to do so thoroughly so far to my memory has been nutella.

[Kylemii]

i will do anything for cool points

[dunya]

i will do anything for cool points

I'll race you to it.

[rundontwalk]

i will do anything for cool points

I'll race you to it.

I'm already cool I don't have to try

[colonialbob]

20 cool points to be awarded to the first person to ISO Dr. White's posts and actually say something. I am yelling underwater here. The only person to do so thoroughly so far to my memory has been nutella.

I believe I read him but I don't remember if it was before or after your interaction with him. I'll look.

[rundontwalk]

night ends in about 2 hours if the poll is accurate.

I thought it ended a few hours ago, meh

[ColinIsCool]

Reading through Dr. White's ISO, the first thing are his suspicions of Mac based on his "gatling" reads, but it kind of looks like he's doing that himself in that very post and in a few others. I also don't really buy the case against Mac that has to do with his behavior during a vacation, there is more to life than Mafia ya know.

Here it strikes me odd that he would say he "firmly" believes a scum would be between these three - I'm just not seeing the case and those are big words for Day 1, which almost makes me think a scum wouldn't say something like that.

I don't really think there's anything scummy in the dispute between JJJ and White but if one of them is scum I'd doubt that the other is. That's not an argument between knowing teammates, nah.

[ColinIsCool]

Overall it seems to me that White is not afraid to pick unpopular horses, but he is also laying much lower than I realized and I don't find myself agreeing with his casing.

[nutella]

night ends in about 2 hours if the poll is accurate.

I thought it ended a few hours ago, meh

Are we going by the poll time or by the time of Jack's post in which he said "24 hours from now (actions due in 23)"?

If the latter, the action deadline passed 15 minutes ago and the night ends in 45 minutes.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] ?

[sprityo]

No one took me up on my offer earlier so I’ll say this as a statement:

While epi has 10.5 people saying Dunya would be on their mafia team, I don’t think it correlates to her actually being on it. I had thought about it last night and I’ve forgotten now what my case was but essentially it was like “they want Dunya to be mafia, but that isn’t the case” ugh it frustrates me I can’t remember the exact wording of it, but essentially I don’t think the lower numbers correlate better towards mafia alignment.

Hrnnngh, okay like so you would want to put people on your “Don list” that you know are just strong players overall but the mafia more so avoided their teammates im sure. I think in the end the statistics are nice to look at but there’s nothing groundbreaking we can learn from it

I know why I trust you, why do you trust me, though?

I actually thought you were Kenway for some reason, but the question still applies.

Your overwhelming amount of post and presence either makes me believe you’re town or you just don’t have any kind of hobby, job, or work outside of mafia

[dunya]

No one took me up on my offer earlier so I’ll say this as a statement:

While epi has 10.5 people saying Dunya would be on their mafia team, I don’t think it correlates to her actually being on it. I had thought about it last night and I’ve forgotten now what my case was but essentially it was like “they want Dunya to be mafia, but that isn’t the case” ugh it frustrates me I can’t remember the exact wording of it, but essentially I don’t think the lower numbers correlate better towards mafia alignment.

Hrnnngh, okay like so you would want to put people on your “Don list” that you know are just strong players overall but the mafia more so avoided their teammates im sure. I think in the end the statistics are nice to look at but there’s nothing groundbreaking we can learn from it

I know why I trust you, why do you trust me, though?

I actually thought you were Kenway for some reason, but the question still applies.

Your overwhelming amount of post and presence either makes me believe you’re town or you just don’t have any kind of hobby, job, or work outside of mafia

rude, but semi accurate. I have a job, but the rest of my free time is mafia and writing papers.

[colonialbob]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

[sprityo]

Respectable, I wish I had your kind of vigor and work ethic

[Iron_Dwarf]

You are very analytical and putting people under a lot of scrutiny. Town.

Name 3 people Jay has put under a lot of scrutiny. Go.

Homework! For instance, exchanges about Epi, analysis of Colin, and yourself.

[Kylemii]

doctor white seems jumpy and I don't necessarily find his suspects to be authentic, since they seem to be statements of thought instead of actual efforts into determining alignment.

[Kylemii]

seems like i don't get the cool points :[

[dunya]

Homework! For instance, exchanges about Epi, analysis of Colin, and yourself.

I'm surprised you left out Dr. White.

[nutella]

What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

Any read provided by a mafioso [in a one mafia team game] other than Teammate X is mafia is false. Any post made in the thread with the intent of assuming a civilian appearance without featuring reads is fake. I'm placing them under the same umbrella. It doesn't account for every post, but it accounts for most. The exceptions would be spam and banter, and I don't think a huge portion of the 500+ in dunya's case are either of those.

You consider civ-reading civs as false?

Any "read" is false, yes. If it's straight up "Civilian X is a civilian", that wouldn't be false.

I sort of disagree with this but it might just be that you're using a strict Boolean-logical definition of "false." When I'm bad I still make more-or-less genuine "reads" of players based on how their behavior/activity looks. I don't randomly assert that players I know to be civilian are either civ or scum, I say that I suspect players who look bad and I say that I civ-read players who look good. Reads provided by scum are not without value.

I don't understand why, if he's worried about later teammate speculation, the current analysis has assuaged his fears, because it absolutely does not preclude, and indeed paves the way for, said later speculation.

It's hard for me to say what the bad version of Epignosis' conclusions would look like, but something that I wouldn't agree with is a call-to-arms to lynch somebody (now or in the future) based on it without compelling evidence. What is does do is merely bring up discussion. What I'm not seeing is why my behavior looks so strange to you here - if I'm scum, what's my game?

I don't believe I said that I suspect you, where did you get that? I'm just trying to understand your thought process. If you were worried that later teammate speculation would be a dangerous analysis trap, I don't understand why you're not still concerned that the data will be used for that once we get a scum flip. But I guess I can understand that you feel okay about what Epi has done with it for now/at this stage of the game.

[nutella]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

[dunya]

Like, Quin, what is happening with that dude?

[dunya]

seems like i don't get the cool points :[

I gotta admit, after Colin beat me to it, I lost interest for the present moment.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

[colonialbob]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

[nutella]

do I have them for ISOing him earlier or should I do it again

[ColinIsCool]

Screw Mafia, I'm just here to rack up cool points.

[nutella]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534

For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.

[Kylemii]

seems like i don't get the cool points :[

I gotta admit, after Colin beat me to it, I lost interest for the present moment.

the moment you said "I'll race you for it" I was like... shit dude I'm not gonna get those cool points. :\

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

jay, you are contributing to cool point inflation. the cool-market cannot deal with a cool point surge of such magnitude. you're increasing the risk of a coolness crash. it's irresponsible :[

[colonialbob]

Yeah that reasoning doesn't make any sense to me.

[sprityo]

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

You’re causing inflation upon the cool points market

I offer in return some Hot Points to people who can give me an engaging conversation. On topic about the game of course

[Marmot]

Are we recruiting dunya to Rico's army? How do you feel about that dunya?

[Marmot]

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

You’re causing inflation upon the cool points market

I offer in return some Hot Points to people who can give me an engaging conversation. On topic about the game of course

What are your reads on the four players you told Epignosis you'd recruit to the mafia team as the Don?

[dunya]

Are we recruiting dunya to Rico's army? How do you feel about that dunya?

I'll probably turn the position down if Rico doesn't pay me enough tbh. I can have better offers.

[dunya]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534

For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.

What about Dr. White himself trying to recruit Iron_Dwarf before it was even his turn to recruit. Does that fall under "acting ignorant" category?

[Marmot]

[nutella]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534

For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.

What about Dr. White himself trying to recruit Iron_Dwarf before it was even his turn to recruit. Does that fall under "acting ignorant" category?

Maybe? I think I believed at the time that he was genuinely confused/misled about how the draft works -- particularly because I recall DDL admitting that when he contacted him to come play the game he may have misled him into thinking it was his turn to draft.

[colonialbob]

A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534

For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.

What about Dr. White himself trying to recruit Iron_Dwarf before it was even his turn to recruit. Does that fall under "acting ignorant" category?

That's interesting, because they're both at the bottom of my list.

[dunya]

terrifying

How do you find out what Rico ranks your performance? do you share a BTSC with other recruits? have you leveled up faster? do you get extra powers as a recruit of Rico's army?

[dunya]

[mention]Dr. White[/mention] - I realize everyone here is new to you except Duffy. Can you tell me why you chose Iron_Dwarf in particular to recruit?

[sprityo]

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

You’re causing inflation upon the cool points market

I offer in return some Hot Points to people who can give me an engaging conversation. On topic about the game of course

What are your reads on the four players you told Epignosis you'd recruit to the mafia team as the Don?

Whom did I say?

JJJ Dunya Mac cbob?

I’m pretty sure I covered them in my catchup post.

They’re all still fairly town but I will only say I have unwavering trust towards dunya as a town. JJJ gives me paranoia and Mac is someone who I can see as both, but I like what Mac actually says as opposed to Jay who more so is in a lot of these headbutt battles.

And cbob hadn’t procced anything on my radar and could warrant an ISO if so desired

[nutella]

Oh yeah as far as his specific choice of Iron_Dwarf, that is rather curious as he presumably didn't know anyone besides DDL. Potential teammates.

[dunya]

Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.

You’re causing inflation upon the cool points market

I offer in return some Hot Points to people who can give me an engaging conversation. On topic about the game of course

What are your reads on the four players you told Epignosis you'd recruit to the mafia team as the Don?

Whom did I say?

JJJ Dunya Mac cbob?

I’m pretty sure I covered them in my catchup post.

They’re all still fairly town but I will only say I have unwavering trust towards dunya as a town. JJJ gives me paranoia and Mac is someone who I can see as both, but I like what Mac actually says as opposed to Jay who more so is in a lot of these headbutt battles.

And cbob hadn’t procced anything on my radar and could warrant an ISO if so desired

sprityo, you have assembled a heck of a mafia team there. Do you feel your list was a real representation of don sprityo's choices or are they leaning more towards a "Fantasy Mafia" draft? Just a very short, honest, to the point answer would do. Real / Fantasy. Can be one word answer.

(someone needs to start a Fantasy Mafia btw. Fantasy Football is good, Fantasy Mafia, betting on our own players, would be epic)

[dunya]

I almost hate it when people say they have unwavering trust in me now, how sad is that, cos I can see the smoke coming out of Epignosis' ears.

[nutella]

Oh yeah as far as his specific choice of Iron_Dwarf, that is rather curious as he presumably didn't know anyone besides DDL. Potential teammates.

Hmm but when his real turn came up, Iron_Dwarf was still available and yet he chose Marmot.

[dunya]

Oh yeah as far as his specific choice of Iron_Dwarf, that is rather curious as he presumably didn't know anyone besides DDL. Potential teammates.

Hmm but when his real turn came up, Iron_Dwarf was still available and yet he chose Marmot.

what does that tell you?

[nutella]

Oh yeah as far as his specific choice of Iron_Dwarf, that is rather curious as he presumably didn't know anyone besides DDL. Potential teammates.

Hmm but when his real turn came up, Iron_Dwarf was still available and yet he chose Marmot.

what does that tell you?

Dunno. Maybe nothing. Maybe Iron_Dwarf and Marmot are both his teammates. Seems highly unlikely (especially since they were the last two to be drafted). It might just have been because Marmot was around at the time Dr. White was up and Marmot was asking more eagerly for a role.

[mention]Dr. White[/mention], when you drafted you only had two choices, right? Why did you pick Marmot instead of Iron_Dwarf, who you were originally going to pick when you thought it was your turn earlier?