Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Kylemii]

Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?

wait, sorry yes. PoE.

but that still narrows us down to the sig nutella kenway rdw group right?

[colonialbob]

Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?

Well this is assuming we can narrow that down to like 2 or 3 people, but it's the best way to vote because it gives you the best chance of catching mafia.

Based on the assumption Kites and gwil are town (which I think is a solid one):

Nut/Sig couldn't have killed sprit. Kites blocked fliers, and is immune to flier targeting, so he's locked in. (Sidenote, the discrepancy between nutella's reported night action and kites has me actually suspecting her for basically the first time all game)

Gwil doctored sprit, so the killer couldn't have been on foot or he was misdirected. Either nutella MD'd gwil, or Kenway, myself, or RDW made the kill.

Option 1: nutella MDs gwil - I don't think there's any remaining MDs in the game other than her and I, and I didn't MD last night. So either she's lying about her target (and thus presumably mafia), or she failed but didn't mention it?

Option 2: one of Kenway, me, RDW are the killer. Kenway used his power on me, so if he's town (and wasn't MD'd) neither of us could make the kill. That leaves RDW. If Kenway is mafia, he could've made the kill and lied about targeting me, meaning there could be an unknown teammate out there.

So I guess voting this way depends on your trust of Kenway and how likely you think nutella a) is mafia and b) targeted gwil.

[mention]rundontwalk[/mention] what did you do last night?

[Kylemii]

Kylemii what do you think about the argument that if nutella was mafia they wouldn't habe killed rabbit8 n1 because mafia would've been safe from the Pegasus kill, and perhaps could've gotten it to fire against town?

(Not my argument originally, I don't remember who brought it up after rabbit died, but I find it reasonably compelling)

i actually forgot about that, but I wasn't particularly compelled by it when LC used that as a defense either. I think people put too much stock in the pegasus kill's potential. if Nutella should be cleared it should be for reasons other than that one, I think.

[Kylemii]

alright

the way i see it only 5 players could have done the murder last night.

cbob could only have done it if kenway is his partner

sig could only have done it if Nutella is his partner. or if Nutella isn't his partner? I'm a little confused about the implications of Nutella possibly lying about her target, but whether or not Nutella lied effects sig's ability to have killed. also to be considered, Nutella lying about a kite target would only implicate her and sig when they would have both been cleared so probably not w/w. sorry rambling

then we have rdw, kenway, and nutella

[colonialbob]

alright

the way i see it only 5 players could have done the murder last night.

cbob could only have done it if kenway is his partner

sig could only have done it if Nutella is his partner. or if Nutella isn't his partner? I'm a little confused about the implications of Nutella possibly lying about her target, but whether or not Nutella lied effects sig's ability to have killed. also to be considered, Nutella lying about a kite target would only implicate her and sig when they would have both been cleared so probably not w/w. sorry rambling

then we have rdw, kenway, and nutella

If Kites is telling the truth (he can't be targeted by fliers) then Sig nor nutella could've made the kill full stop.

But nutella could've enabled myself or a foot to make the kill, if she MD'd Kenway or gwil respectively.

[colonialbob]

I misdirected kites

then you should have failed because you can’t target me
sniper is a buffed version of archer so basically I still have the same powers, but
a) the kill chance increase of my 1st power was increased
b) i can’t be targeted by fliers when I’m targeting someone with my 2nd power which is what I did

so are you the other scum who didn’t kill sprityo

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] for reference

[Kylemii]

you're right. civNutella could have opened up the gates by misdirecting kites independently of a mafsig chosing to kill sprityo.

however, both nut and sig being mafia at once seems unlikely to me since Nutella revealing that she MDed kites, regardless of whether that was a truth or a lie only serves to re-implicste both her and sig, without any real benefit

[colonialbob]

you're right. civNutella could have opened up the gates by misdirecting kites independently of a mafsig chosing to kill sprityo.

however, both nut and sig being mafia at once seems unlikely to me since Nutella revealing that she MDed kites, regardless of whether that was a truth or a lie only serves to re-implicste both her and sig, without any real benefit

Yes, I agree with that (I think I made a similar comment earlier).

[Kylemii]

rdw is also still a possibility but it's a huge risk to deal with him at this point with 2 lives. if we go for him and we're wrong then we only get 1 more chance to get it right

unless..... hmm......

[Kylemii]

[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine

i have a plan

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine

i have a plan

TELL ME

[Kites]

it could be nutella and rdw yeah

[Kylemii]

that said, it's only an average plan at best, but I can clear or . if y'all have any better ideas then go for it. I won't be here for the last 3 hours of the phase, do your best love you

[speedchuck]

that said, it's only an average plan at best, but I can clear or . if y'all have any better ideas then go for it. I won't be here for the last 3 hours of the phase, do your best love you

clear what?

Tell me what you're trying to accomplish and I might go along with it

[Kylemii]

well okay I guess there's no use in not being transparent. since gwilikers can doctor and I can also doctor a little and also we've got two flippy mage guys we can configure things to either clear or kill rdw tonight. it's not great cus it has to be partially coordinated out in the open and is naturally subject to fuckery but overall it's decent

[Kylemii]

also requires gwilikers' participation I guess but he'll probably be down

[Kylemii]

if it seems like a waste of resources then we can do something else, but clearing just even a few more people wins us the game

[gwilikers6]

Yeah there’s like no way that’s not gonna get fucked up lol.

[gwilikers6]

Do we know that if a misdirect fails, the player gets a failed message back? I’m tempted to vote for Nutella based on her claim that she misdirected Kites.

[speedchuck]

If the RDW plan fails can we assume scum has a misdirector?

[Kites]

in case rdw is scum he just lets his teammate do the kill so you can’t clear him so you gotta try to kill if you go with this plan

we know that ring can’t mess with it but pinky’s secret power is a mystery

[speedchuck]

in case rdw is scum he just lets his teammate do the kill so you can’t clear him so you gotta try to kill if you go with this plan

we know that ring can’t mess with it but pinky’s secret power is a mystery

The plan was to try and use a reverse doctor to kill RDW, right?

If he doesn't die from elfire, that makes him town

[Kites]

Do we know that if a misdirect fails, the player gets a failed message back? I’m tempted to vote for Nutella based on her claim that she misdirected Kites.

4) I will not tell you if you were misdirected. I will tell you if your action failed

[Kites]

in case rdw is scum he just lets his teammate do the kill so you can’t clear him so you gotta try to kill if you go with this plan

we know that ring can’t mess with it but pinky’s secret power is a mystery

The plan was to try and use a reverse doctor to kill RDW, right?

If he doesn't die from elfire, that makes him town

oh okay I understand

[colonialbob]

So we'd need gwil+Kyle on that, then kenway could target me and I could target another suspect to lock another set down (we don't really need kenway but I'm assuming people don't trust me enough to let me have free range over my action)

And kites can protect from nutella's 2nd

What could go wrong

[Kites]

this plan involves so many people it’s not reliable. i can protect either kyle or gwil but not both from nutella

if you go with the kill plan you just need to protect the vig

[colonialbob]

Kenway or I can lock down nutella, with the other one of us locking down Sig or RDW presumably.

[speedchuck]

this plan involves so many people it’s not reliable. i can protect either kyle or gwil but not both from nutella

if you go with the kill plan you just need to protect the vig

We only need one reversed doctor to check RDW. Whichever one you protect would work. And if you get redirected, then the doctor can't get redirected.

Maybe this is too complicated, though.

As for the vigs, I don't feel like they're super reliable. When was the last time we had a crit kill?

[nutella]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

[Kites]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

it’s not possible for you to target me unless i was roleblocked but then I’d get notified

of course you could get misdirected but what are the chances of that

[colonialbob]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

Have you promoted? What's your new role?

[sig]

As for the vigs, I don't feel like they're super reliable. When was the last time we had a crit kill?

[nutella]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

Have you promoted? What's your new role?

Yeah, wyvern knight. Misdirect every night with a crit chance

[colonialbob]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

Have you promoted? What's your new role?

Yeah, wyvern knight. Misdirect every night with a crit chance

That's right, you already mentioned that.

[sig]

I didn't hear anything about my action failing

Have you promoted? What's your new role?

Yeah, wyvern knight. Misdirect every night with a crit chance

This would explain some of the extra kills and general fuckery that's gone on. It would also explain why Collins died when I targeted Wilgy. Since nutella is mafia and redirected my action. We're both fliers so she'd have that ability however, at that time only scum had their promotions.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

[sig]

Fire Emblem Night 2
Coliniscool has been killed by a critical hit. He was a general who came out of retirement. (Town)[/u]

I'm referring to this, it was night 2 so before anyone had promoted and the text makes it clear I was the one who carried out the kill. However, as I said then and now Collins wasn't my target. Being a flier means I couldn't have been redirected by anyone other than a flier. It would make perfect sense for the mafia assuming nutella was on their team to misdirect me onto someone who seemed civvie for two reasons. One it knocked out a civ and two it could potentially get the town vig, who at that time was a town read, lynched.

[sig]

[mention]Kenway[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]rundontwalk[/mention] Thoughts?

[speedchuck]

@Kenway @speedchuck @rundontwalk Thoughts?

This is a pretty interesting point, but I have a couple of questions.

1. Does nutella's crit chance matter to this theory? I noticed you linked the two.
2. It's very possible that there is a mafia misdirection ability that, like Ring's roleblock thing, is hidden behind the scenes. What points you specifically to nutella?

Also, why bring this up now instead of days ago?

[speedchuck]

Answer quickly if you can, I have 40 minutes to place a vote

[Kites]

@Kenway @speedchuck @rundontwalk Thoughts?

This is a pretty interesting point, but I have a couple of questions.

1. Does nutella's crit chance matter to this theory? I noticed you linked the two.
2. It's very possible that there is a mafia misdirection ability that, like Ring's roleblock thing, is hidden behind the scenes. What points you specifically to nutella?

Also, why bring this up now instead of days ago?

I did bring it up but bob got defensive and we never talked about it again

[speedchuck]

@Kenway @speedchuck @rundontwalk Thoughts?

This is a pretty interesting point, but I have a couple of questions.

1. Does nutella's crit chance matter to this theory? I noticed you linked the two.
2. It's very possible that there is a mafia misdirection ability that, like Ring's roleblock thing, is hidden behind the scenes. What points you specifically to nutella?

Also, why bring this up now instead of days ago?

I did bring it up but bob got defensive and we never talked about it again

Are we talking about the same thing? It's about sig and nutella, not cbob and you.

[Kites]

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 12#p421212
uh well not exactly it wsn’t about sig but nutella being responsible for the kills nvm

anyways i think none of the vigs claimed responsibility for sending a kill attempt when mac died so it was probs mafia and possibly nutella

[gwilikers6]

Oh wow, I had no idea the day was ending. Sorry guys.

[gwilikers6]

I was torn between nutella and rdw anyway so I guess my decision was made easier for me.

[speedchuck]

Oh wow, I had no idea the day was ending. Sorry guys.

It's not over yet! The poll is still here

[colonialbob]

@Kenway @speedchuck @rundontwalk Thoughts?

This is a pretty interesting point, but I have a couple of questions.

1. Does nutella's crit chance matter to this theory? I noticed you linked the two.
2. It's very possible that there is a mafia misdirection ability that, like Ring's roleblock thing, is hidden behind the scenes. What points you specifically to nutella?

Also, why bring this up now instead of days ago?

I did bring it up but bob got defensive and we never talked about it again

When did you bring it up?

[speedchuck]

17 minutes left. What are we doing?

I'm leaning toward voting RDW and enacting 'the plaaaan'

[speedchuck]

Actually yeah

[VOTE: RDW] aubergine

[colonialbob]

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 12#p421212
uh well not exactly it wsn’t about sig but nutella being responsible for the kills nvm

anyways i think none of the vigs claimed responsibility for sending a kill attempt when mac died so it was probs mafia and possibly nutella

Oh yeah that's a different argument

Nutella killing people via crit chance is circular

Nutella MDing Sig is a different argument

[colonialbob]

Also wait I should basically be confirmed town, I've been targeted by foot people before my promotion and they didn't fail (I'm pretty sure) and then kenway failed after my promotion, and then didn't fail last night after he promoted, which should prove I'm on a horse, right?