Courage the Cowardly Dog Mafia [THE END]

[speedchuck]

Colin and Fractal are my first options.

Not sure what to think of TH. He's actively hunting for the first time in forever, throwing suspicion on people who haven't had much, and they're hating him for it.
Marmot is not on my radar for tomorrow, but perhaps for later days. The mafia team is not composed entirely of low posters, and I don't want to throw another YOLO kill to them.

This is the first time I’ve tinfoiled speed.

In isolation the ‘I don’t want to lynch marmot’ I actually agree with. But on scotty lynch day I was trying to move the lynch to a new candidate and I offered marmot and inh. My reasons for marmot we’re stronger in my view. It was speed that chose inh over marmot. A speed/marmot pairing is possible.

I doubt I'll be around on D6 to dispute that. If I'm not nightkilled, we can talk about it then.

[speedchuck]

I think we have things narrowed down to the point that INH's alignment will tell us where to go next, either way.

Hey speedchuck, where do we go now that inh is town?

Coliniscool
Fractal
Kylemii
Dom 2.0
Marmot
Niju
Golden
sig
speedchuck
TH

I want everyone in the game to POE me down to half of this list. Ignore everyone else's halves. Soon as you see this post, POE 5 players out of it.

And don't leave Kylemii in the list. That would just be stupid.

Start here.

[Kylemii]

i am the world's biggest idiot

don't worry about it :x it'll probably be alright

[Ricochet]

Hello-oo-oo-oo

[speedchuck]

Colin and Fractal are my first options.

Not sure what to think of TH. He's actively hunting for the first time in forever, throwing suspicion on people who haven't had much, and they're hating him for it.
Marmot is not on my radar for tomorrow, but perhaps for later days. The mafia team is not composed entirely of low posters, and I don't want to throw another YOLO kill to them.

This is the first time I’ve tinfoiled speed.

In isolation the ‘I don’t want to lynch marmot’ I actually agree with. But on scotty lynch day I was trying to move the lynch to a new candidate and I offered marmot and inh. My reasons for marmot we’re stronger in my view. It was speed that chose inh over marmot. A speed/marmot pairing is possible.

My second reply to this post.

This is also the point where I tinfoil you. I'm trying to narrow down the lynch candidates in a POE sort of way, which is one of the only safe ways to approach MYLO. While you've made interesting points in thread, I feel like you're expanding the suspect pool near-constantly, and your top pushes (from memory) are on TH and Marmot.

TH is actually hunting for the first time since I've seen him return, albeit in a very TH way. Is him actually putting forward focus and accusations a scumtell?
Marmot has been effing gone. I DO NOT want to lynch another low poster like it's a sure thing.

I don't want you to be scum, because this game will be a lot harder if you are. But you're walking a line where you have the same strongest suspects as me, but with TH and Marmot in front of them in what I would describe as easy and less substantiated lynches.

That all said, I do not want to lynch Golden tomorrow. It is still tinfoil.

[speedchuck]

i am the world's biggest idiot

don't worry about it :x it'll probably be alright

Tell me

[Golden]

Colin and Fractal are my first options.

Not sure what to think of TH. He's actively hunting for the first time in forever, throwing suspicion on people who haven't had much, and they're hating him for it.
Marmot is not on my radar for tomorrow, but perhaps for later days. The mafia team is not composed entirely of low posters, and I don't want to throw another YOLO kill to them.

This is the first time I’ve tinfoiled speed.

In isolation the ‘I don’t want to lynch marmot’ I actually agree with. But on scotty lynch day I was trying to move the lynch to a new candidate and I offered marmot and inh. My reasons for marmot we’re stronger in my view. It was speed that chose inh over marmot. A speed/marmot pairing is possible.

I doubt I'll be around on D6 to dispute that. If I'm not nightkilled, we can talk about it then.

Fair enough. You’re not the only one that feels unsafe. If you do die I’m wrong anyway. And generally speaking, I actually agree that there’s three baddies and even if marmot is one, catching one is the starting point and we can use associations from there.

I think that TH, fractal, colin and marmot are the baddies and Ramses in some order. If I’m wrong about 1 it’s Colin, which I guess means I’m wrong about one of my town reads - probably sig, outside chance it’s dom or ninja, tinfoil it’s you.

[Golden]

i am the world's biggest idiot

don't worry about it :x it'll probably be alright

Tell me

This conversation sounds familiar. Are you and Kyle in couples therapy?

[Golden]

Speed it’s probably a fair criticism that I’m ‘expanding the suspect pool’, but I feel like our days have been to narrow. Once inh was lynched, for me it was re-evaluation time, hence my list of questions. PS i wouldn’t mind your response to that question post generally, people have so far only engaged with the question aimed at them which is I guess understandable but not what I was wanting.

[Golden]

TH is not an unsubstantiated choice for a lynch. Quite the opposite. He’s the one I think is most substantiated.

[Golden]

Fractal also fairly substantiated.

[speedchuck]

PS i wouldn’t mind your response to that question post generally, people have so far only engaged with the question aimed at them which is I guess understandable but not what I was wanting.

I must have missed it.

Haven't been as active tonight as I'd have liked.

[speedchuck]

Colin - Has Colin ever actively pushed against lynching a known townie? He defended Scotty. Not sure how strongly he did so.
Fractal - How suspicious is sticking on Scotty in the scotty lynch now that we know inh is town? Still suspicious. Look where it took us. INH still had to be lynched next, and now we're in MYLO. Granted, Fractal's place in other lynches has been just as bad if not worse.
Kyle - is there any reason to doubt the consensus read? (no there isn't. I just didn't want Kyle to feel left out). I had 5% pegged Sig instead of Kylemii, but naw I'm pretty sure.
Dom - am I correctly picking up on what Lapluie was putting down? What?
Marmot - am I wrong that very quiet Marmot is very rarely town? I have no idea.
Niju - where'd she go on day 5?
sig - what should we make of sig being on the eventual lynch every time, usually as an early adopter? He's learned much from retrocausality mafia. TBH though I think it's coincidence.
speed - who would speed's teammates be if he were bad? Dom, Marmot, and LC
TH - Why does TH see Fractal's attempt at isos as more suspicion that, say, Colins? (More generic version of this same question - is TH being purposefully myopic) I already have an answer for this in an earlier post. Short answer is gut. Long version is that the posts are high-effort, low personal contribution, and look more like hunting than they are.

[nijuukyugou]

Coliniscool
Fractal
Kylemii
Dom 2.0
Marmot
Niju
Golden
sig
speedchuck
TH

I want everyone in the game to POE me down to half of this list. Ignore everyone else's halves. Soon as you see this post, POE 5 players out of it.

And don't leave Kylemii in the list. That would just be stupid.

I don't normally take orders, but this at least gets my own thoughts organized, so I'm okay with it.

Colin
Fractal
speedchuck
TH
sig

Man, it's hard not to tinfoil.

[Golden]

Thanks speed.

I was hoping more people would respond before I gave my own thoughts... I’ll be giving them soon, so if anyone else wants to jump in...

[Golden]

I have so much to do at work today it's unlikely I'll be around for much of the day.

But I will pop in to write at least one more post before end of night.

[Golden]

I have a question about every player in the game; they aren't just for the players themselves, anyone can answer. I'm answering these myself too, but interested in opinions.

Colin - Has Colin ever actively pushed against lynching a known townie?
Fractal - How suspicious is sticking on Scotty in the scotty lynch now that we know inh is town?
Kyle - is there any reason to doubt the consensus read? (no there isn't. I just didn't want Kyle to feel left out).
Dom - am I correctly picking up on what Lapluie was putting down?
Marmot - am I wrong that very quiet Marmot is very rarely town?
Niju - where'd she go on day 5?
sig - what should we make of sig being on the eventual lynch every time, usually as an early adopter?
speed - who would speed's teammates be if he were bad?
TH - Why does TH see Fractal's attempt at isos as more suspicion that, say, Colins? (More generic version of this same question - is TH being purposefully myopic)

Bonus question for colin, Fractal, TH, niju... is their nutella vote suspicious?

And someone should ask a question about me.

Alright, so here's what I think.

I'm ignoring my question on Colin. Both speed and Colin have suggested the answer is 'yes, scotty'. I'm not sure if it's an example or the sum total. If any of you has suspicion on colin to the extent that you'd consider voting him today, I suggest you research this question hard. Only one townie might indicate colin is bad. But one thing you certainly can't accuse Colin of is a lack of reads or substantive content. It is possible to evaluate this. If he's defended multiple known townies, I suggest this leans towards Colin being town. It's also worth reassessing his isos in light of where we are now and what his behaviour has been since.

Fractal - my answer to this question is 'quite suspicious'. I think that baddies often have difficulty making a call to place a late vote on a wagon that will lynch a townie. This is the reason why I believe I caught Colin is Ancient Greece, as an example. Fractal said he'd break the tie, but then he didn't. In theory, there's no reason for a baddie to do this if he knows both are town. In practice, being the deciding vote on a town wagon feels exposing. I think Fractal looks worse because INH is town. If INH was bad, it was a little too obvious as a save. Because INH is town, I think it's very possible that Fractal's unwillingness to shift came out of being afraid to appear like the deciding factor. He didn't count on being the deciding factor anyway.

Kyle - no, no reason to doubt this.

Dom - based on all reactions including Dom, I think I'm wrong about seeing something in lap's posts that I thought was role indicative, so never mind.

Marmot - Marmot is still exceedingly quiet even though he is back from his trip. I think he posted quite a while ago now that he'd be back quite soon but that hasn't upped his content. People should go check a game like Dune or one like GoC2018. Seriously, just do it.

Ninja - I read her iso again today, to again decide if she was being too quiet. I still see normal ninja, but [mention]nijuukyugou[/mention] I'd like to see you give your reads, and reasons for them, on all players today please.

sig - I don't really know which way to go with this - it's probably not interpretable until I see his affiliation, but I won't forget the assurance he seems to have in this game regardless of his alignment. There's one possibility I have on sig that could make him a TH teamie which I'll set out below.

Speed - Speed would have marmot and TH as his teamies if he was bad, but that is still major tinfoil.

TH - I've read TH's iso three times in this phase. I do not believe my perception is wrong. TH does no hunting whatsoever, in my opinion, until day 4. Go read people, please. On day 4, he suspects two people - Fractal and Colin. To be fair, that is more than just Fractal. Anyone saying he is truly hunting after reading that iso - he's really not. He pretty much went on solely about fractal again (other than a couple of flippant posts with no hunting basis), until I asked why he was only focussed on Fractal and he flipped out on me.

I think there is a very good chance that TH is Ramses hunting, and he believes that Fractal is Ramses. His flip out on me wasn't genuine in any way, it was daft - accusing me of being Fractal's teammate for having a particular perception of him which I can say I absolutely still hold after looking at him very carefully. He's provided no counterevidence and now that I've worked on his iso I can see why - there really is very little, other than his suspicion on Colin that he abandoned in favour of asking Colin to help him the moment I turned on him. It was a major overreaction, and I think it came from me correctly calling him out.

Interestingly, sig has labelled that he thinks Fractal is Ramses. I dunno where this comes from but it's why I say I can see a scenario in which he and TH are hunting Ramses and have talked about this. Sig has also done a bit of Ramses hunting in the thread.

I encourage people to read TH's iso very strongly. I believe this man is bad. I don't understand the town leans people have at all. Go check this iso out, people.

[Ricochet]

[Ricochet]

bing bong ding dong!

welcome to the season finale of The News!

the game may be closer to ending than you think. treat every single lynch like it's mylo. establish a town core. do your best. eat something with fried onions in it.

lynch marmot. lynch epignosis.

goodnight and i love you

[Marmot]

Epignosis isn't even playing.

[Marmot]

I was lynched Day 2 in Dune Mafia and had 65 posts before I was lynched. That game is a poor comparison.

[mention]Golden[/mention], do you have any want to lynch me aside from me being quiet because I was out of town and unable to post?

[Turnip Head]

My slacker meta will eventually succeed over the tryhard meta. One day, but it will not be this day.

[Kylemii]

alright

[Golden]

I was lynched Day 2 in Dune Mafia and had 65 posts before I was lynched. That game is a poor comparison.

Golden, do you have any want to lynch me aside from me being quiet because I was out of town and unable to post?

A post from Dune

I feel liek I have contributed nothing to this game and I'm sorry, and I'll be around tomorrow.

Cheers.

And Happy Halloween you crazy people. It is still Halloweeen here.

A post from this game:

Dropping a temporary vote on TH for now. I'll be more back in action come Day 5, but sorry for my absence to this point.

Neither of your promises to return resulted in anything meaningful.

You can't just talk 'number of posts' and 'day x'. I made clear that I find that even when you are away and have trouble posting often, those posts you do make, you tend to endeavour to include real content when you are town. The games where there is a significant lack of content is when you are bad.

This game and Dune both look similar to me. Lots of posts early, then a steep drop off, without any real meaningful content.

To say it's 'because I was out of town and unable to post' is your choice to put a particular spin on what my suspicion actually is.

[Kylemii]

the next 24 hours are going to be the strongest 24 hours anyone has ever seen, and we are going to lynch mafia today, I can feel it in my bones

[Golden]

the next 24 hours are going to be the strongest 24 hours anyone has ever seen, and we are going to lynch mafia today, I can feel it in my bones

I feel good about it. I think we're narrowing the field down substantially.

[Golden]

Sorry to see speed go, glad I'm still here, but please read that big post I made before the end of night people. It's important.

[Golden]

(Well, I think it's important anyway).

[Golden]

Also, there's been a habit in this game - activity suddenly drops at the beginning of a phase, forcing all the activity to happen late in the phase.

I've noticed how markedly this has affected my contribution. So few people to talk to during the day, then the activity only happens while I'm asleep, leaving me only 2-3 hours out of 24 to meaningfully interact with people. We need to do better and not waste the START of this phase, or we'll end up in a worse position.

(I say this even though I know I have a tonne to do at work. But I'll check in at breaks whenever I can).

[Turnip Head]

Golden you're either or you completely missed my rolehint to you after the other night.

[Turnip Head]

Actually nvm just a wolf thx tehehe

[Turnip Head]

#tipsy #mafia

[sig]

Also, there's been a habit in this game - activity suddenly drops at the beginning of a phase, forcing all the activity to happen late in the phase.

I've noticed how markedly this has affected my contribution. So few people to talk to during the day, then the activity only happens while I'm asleep, leaving me only 2-3 hours out of 24 to meaningfully interact with people. We need to do better and not waste the START of this phase, or we'll end up in a worse position.

(I say this even though I know I have a tonne to do at work. But I'll check in at breaks whenever I can).

I'm here and I love you.

Whatcha wanna talk about
Hair? Makeup? Cat videos?

Also i learned nothing from Restro and it has/had no effect on any current, past, or future game play!

[sig]

Golden you're either or you completely missed my rolehint to you after the other night.

I missed it to.

[Golden]

Golden you're either or you completely missed my rolehint to you after the other night.

I didn't see a role hint. I'll look again. I had a particular role in mind for you that I'm pretty sure I was wrong about, but to be fair since you accused me I have tunnelled down a different route because I'm pretty confident you aren't that role.

[sig]

If frac was civ they'd have been killed. Imo

Same with Colin. All the high volume civs have been knocked out. Luna speed juliets ect.

This leads me to believe 2 things.
1. We have an active mafia member who's directing the kills in a smart manner
2. They paid attention to U-pick

Frac wouldn't have made the call on Juliet I believe, which leaves Colin.

I'm guessing the mafia team is Colin, Frac, and one more inactive player MM/Niju

[Kylemii]

Actually nvm just a wolf thx tehehe

plz elaborate, drunk turnip

[Golden]

TH, are you referring to a post in which you replied to a person that is not me?

[Turnip Head]

Actually nvm just a wolf thx tehehe

plz elaborate, drunk turnip

I'm going all-in winerino no holds barrederino

[Golden]

If I'm seeing the role hint, I think it is quite broad. It could put you in multiple town roles, but it is still specific enough to point to only those multiple town roles. Am I on the right track?

[Kylemii]

9 players left

5 civs, 3 mafia, 1 indie

assuming/hoping the indie doesn't have a mutually exclusive win con

if we lose a civ to this lynch and a civ to the night kill that puts the numbers at 3 civs 3 mafia, and 1 indie and I'm incredibly uncomfortable with that.

the numbers could also be even worse than that, who knows what else might happen? let's treat today as if it's lylo

[Golden]

9 players left

5 civs, 3 mafia, 1 indie

assuming/hoping the indie doesn't have a mutually exclusive win con

if we lose a civ to this lynch and a civ to the night kill that puts the numbers at 3 civs 3 mafia, and 1 indie and I'm incredibly uncomfortable with that.

the numbers could also be even worse than that, who knows what else might happen? let's treat today as if it's lylo

I think this is wise. Best case scenario if we lynch a townie today and there's no kill, we are still at MYLO tomorrow.

What do you mean by something else could happen? Are you worried about a recruit? If there's a recruit we would be at lylo right now, and that's even assuming we can win with Ramses.

[Kylemii]

What do you mean by something else could happen? Are you worried about a recruit? If there's a recruit we would be at lylo right now, and that's even assuming we can win with Ramses.

i wasn't worried about a recruit until you said that 0:

it seems unlikely unless that's what the snowman is

what i'm concerned about is all the blank spaces in the mafia's role descriptions, there's a few secrets and a few powers we know about that haven't come into play. im worried the mafia might have something saved up that would bring the game home for them if we don't take one of them down specifically today.

i think there's even a chance that we might already be sort of at lylo, if not in a literal sense, at least a figurative sense.

[ColinIsCool]

If frac was civ they'd have been killed. Imo

Same with Colin. All the high volume civs have been knocked out. Luna speed juliets ect.

This leads me to believe 2 things.
1. We have an active mafia member who's directing the kills in a smart manner
2. They paid attention to U-pick

Frac wouldn't have made the call on Juliet I believe, which leaves Colin.

I'm guessing the mafia team is Colin, Frac, and one more inactive player MM/Niju

You can’t possibly believe I’m a good NK option when I was nearly lynched days ago and most people want me dead.

[ColinIsCool]

Golden, I will try to read TH’s ISO again but I have him as largely compatible with his play in U-Pick. He is mostly not a serious-appearing player but there are moments in that game and this one where he is doing things in a pro-town direction. He could be scum, but if he is it’s not for anything much I can identify.

It appears we both think Fractal is at least not town, so I really urge people to go there today. His look in the Long Con lynch is really, really bad, and Golden’s description of the indecision is really on point.

[VOTE: Fractal] aubergine

[ColinIsCool]

As far as defending known townies I’m sure I did it in U-Pick. TH actually comes to mind near the end there.

[Golden]

As far as defending known townies I’m sure I did it in U-Pick. TH actually comes to mind near the end there.

Yeah I was saying defending them is a townie look on you. The vibe I get from you in this game is like halfway between upick and what I think I’ve seen in your baddie game. You’re in a grey area for me.

And thanks for realising I’m on point with my fractal assessment when I’m comparing it to my reasons for lynching you. I thought you might see it as flawed because you didn’t believe it had merit there.

[ColinIsCool]

No, I understand what you’re saying and I understand at this point completely why people would want to lynch me regardless of that. I have voted off wagon as town plenty of times but the way you’ve framed it for scum is very, very accurate.

[Golden]

I'm willing to joining you on Fractal, ultimately, but I don't want to start a wagon too early and stifle discussion so I'm not going to do that yet.

[Turnip Head]

Golden why are you trying to become my arch nemesis right now

I mean, the position is open, I'm just wondering why you're going for it