Two-Headed Monster Mafia [GAME OVER MAN]

[Golf]

Also my vote was 7 minutes before end of day. I don’t know if colinisspeed ever made it around

1. okay but how am i gonna know this without a post/vote

[Golf]

and why exactly?

[The Dry Flood]

Get the tinfoil out of your butt. I’ve townslipped twice and singlehandedly caught cupman for no purpose if I was bad.

You can trust what I say.

[The Dry Flood]

and why exactly?

Because Colin indicated he thought you were bad. With me seeming likely to die and Colin possibly going a direction I was sure was wrong, my perspective on what was the higher percentage move changed.

[Golf]

It doesn’t seem like that would have been necessary, though, so I struggle to see it.

Quite pointless, in fact, so obviously not a bus job.

This also despite the fact I have literally townslipped about the nature of both possible mafia power roles.

Your trying to rationalise my affiliation is entirely false. You know I'm town. Neither Colin nor Speed would have had any doubt from quite a while ago now.

To your last sentence — why? I don’t see why you would be outside of the POE before today.

You literally tole me why my Cupman/GM can't be a team theory was wrong, and then were worried about my affiliation. This makes zero sense.

What's the baddie thinking there?

1) We're in the world of the doublevoters and I'm lying about what I know to... eliminate a very viable team makeup I could be selling when I haven't got great reads on either? or
2) We're in the ninja world, so I could be genuinely mistaken about how doublevoter functions but then I've lied about my mistaken understanding of how a ninja works... and I'm still just eliminating a viable team makeup I could be selling.

You're also the one that corrected me about the ninja, but you seem to have forgotten that. You went through a full conversation with me and nutella to test whether that was a genuine townslip. Nutella confirmed that my understanding of ninja is based on our background. So to hit a second example of the same thing and still to have worries? That's unnatural.

There's so many things in this game which point to me being town:

Why have I protected Galactic Mac?
Why did I make an about face on Fratyo?
Why did I go after the mafia power role?

My game is so bold faced town that there couldn't be any doubt now, yet you're trying to rationalise away your doubts, or still harbouring that it could be a bus. It just isn't believable. Both of you are far more willing to trust me when I'm looking this town and you're town.

Golden is Town

Occam's Razor, speedcolin is mafia

[Golf]

Get the tinfoil out of your butt. I’ve townslipped twice and singlehandedly caught cupman for no purpose if I was bad.

You can trust what I say.

yeah i should just go with my original opinion. solving things fucks me up too much

[Golf]

"Event: The tire on the car is flat. Of possible explanations a) It has a screw in it and b) A serial tire-flattener came through the neighbor and sliced the tire open, explanation "a" is more likely."

A is speedchuck/colin
B is golden/marmot

[Golf]

if im wrong, then someone might as well have shit in my cornflakes

[The Dry Flood]

Mac is still an option

[dunya]

[The Dry Flood]

Legacy post, in case

I’ve swung back and forth on this. I could legitimately go either way. But here’s where I land, finally.

The lunatella kill is the work of colinisspeed. Luna came out with ‘speed is bad’. Then she’s dead.

If speedchuck is actually bad, they really had no choice but to make that kill. There’s no way to avoid it, Luna’s too much of a threat.

From the perspective of an engaged Galactic Mac, you might suggest it could be a deliberate setup. But at mylo, why would they take out such a strong voice against speed as a setup when you have fratyo on the board, the guy who has been pursuing them for an age?

From the point of view of a disengaged Galactic Mac, it makes even less sense - as does the MP1 kill... disengaged teams are even more likely to remove the threat to them.

I found speedand Colin very convincing in their response to me when I came at them. That frustration was real, though... and they’ve had some major scum-leaning tells like ‘if I’m town’ and ‘don’t just suspect me, give me something to defend against’. All in all, colinisspeed just feels like the right vote, and I endorse it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Night 4 is over.

Spoiler: show

Fratyo has been killed. They were a vanilla civilian.

Day 5 is underway and will last 36 hours.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Countdown clock

[Celeste]

Nightkill analysis is not the way to go ... my nightkills are almost never against someone voicing suspicion of me, I’m not that obvious.

This head will confer with the other head about our vote. The night didn’t go the way I planned.

[Celeste]

And sorry sprit, but that’s not how Occam’s Razor works.

[Celeste]

(I’m pretty sure I know what my other head is going to say, but let’s draw the drama out a little while.)

[Celeste]

Since my boss isn’t here and I have nothing to do, and we’re still tasked with defending ourselves: there is NO world in which I behave the way I did toward the Cuphead lynch if I’m scum. Look at my scum games — I tried bussing Sloonei in AG early on, I bussed Choutas and fought with Scotty in Easter, I bussed everybody almost without a second thought in Retro. Compare that to my town games — I inadvertently defended Long Con and Fractal in Courage, I did the same to SEVERAL scum (Luna, Sloonei) in U-Pick. I won’t speak for speed, but I’m a busser through and through and I would have been an ardent Cuphead voter if I were scum. I’ve got receipts.

[Golf]

”oh damn. Well ain’t this fucked”

[Celeste]

I don't know why my other head waited for me to vote. Seems obvious what we should do.

It's possible to tinfoil Dry Flood since they weren't killed tonight. But that would be silly. Mafia Dry Flood could have killed any player currently in the game, except for themselves, and still win by lynching ColinIsSpeed or Galactic Mac. Tinfoiling their alignment is a possibility, but Galactic Mac is a vote that is less risky, makes more sense, and really if Dry Flood is scum at this point, they deserve the win against this town activity.

That all said, it's not that strange for Fratyo to be killed by Gmac. It may look scummy for me to say this because of WIFOM, but Dry Flood decided to lynch us right before the night ended, looks like. Why wouldn't Galactic Mac keep them around to finish ColinIsSpeed off?

Regarding Dry Flood's nightkill analysis: When this head is in control of the kills in a game, he goes full Death Note with it. Killing WIFOM-full targets is great. I never kill people that suspect me when in control. But...
But the second part of my scumkill meta is that I never try to take control of the kill because I just don't give a crap, and I don't want the guilt on my hands of choosing. Make of that what you will. I think I have been on a team that killed Epi on Night 1, because I just stayed out of it. Felt guilty anyway.

The lack of voting for Gmac yesterday by this account was due to genuine absence, at least from this head. I'm certain Gmac is scum, outside of tinfoil. Why wouldn't I go ahead and vote for that? It certainly would have been better than going into today with Dry Flood gunning for us. Again.

[Celeste]

Oh, and ditto the bussing thing. Only time I defend people as scum is if they are town, because I get good guy points for it. Only time I defend scum is if I'm town, because I'm a moronic hunter. I'm pretty sure my meta record is perfect on those things, and it's gonna stay that way.

[Celeste]

I actually don’t have the option to vote from checking the results.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I actually don’t have the option to vote from checking the results.

Fixed.

[The Dry Flood]

As much as I endorsed a side before the result came in... I really want to hear from Galactic Mac today.

[The Dry Flood]

Oh and the ‘why wouldn’t they keep flood around to finish us off’ is a terrible argument.

I posted 6 minutes before end of night and made sure that neither daisy nor Mac nor Colin nor speed were around before I did it.

In fact, the reverse could be said. I tried to cfd Galactic Mac yesterday. I have no indication my position had changed. Wouldn’t it make sense for colinisspeed to keep me alive rather than GM so I’ll finish GM off?

[The Dry Flood]

On the flip side, fratyo were after GM all game.

[Celeste]

Oh and the ‘why wouldn’t they keep flood around to finish us off’ is a terrible argument.

I posted 6 minutes before end of night and made sure that neither daisy nor Mac nor Colin nor speed were around before I did it.

In fact, the reverse could be said. I tried to cfd Galactic Mac yesterday. I have no indication my position had changed. Wouldn’t it make sense for colinisspeed to keep me alive rather than GM so I’ll finish GM off?

Didn't realize the timing of that. Obviously I wasn't around. I rescind my argument.

[The Dry Flood]

[mention]jaggedjimmyjay[/mention] is hammer voting in effect?

[The Dry Flood]

[mention]colinisspeed[/mention] [mention]coliniscool[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention]

I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.

[The Dry Flood]

[mention]galactic Mac[/mention]
[mention]snakedaisy[/mention]

I want a genuine assessment of whether you would have carried out those nightkills in a vacuum, and if not why not, taking into account your levels of activity.

[The Dry Flood]

[mention]macdougall[/mention]

In a relatively disengaged way, you suspected colinisspeed. I’d like to hear about what it was that made you feel that way, and whether you had any specific reads of other socks at the time, regardless of whether you now know those reads were right or wrong.

[The Dry Flood]

Looking back at 2 dogs night 1.

Damn it was phenomenal. Dunya basically solved the game except, unfortunately, for the question of which of these two are bad. Looking at that stuff she’s so on point that it’s no wonder she was killed. Also TH was there

[Celeste]

@colinisspeed @coliniscool @speedchuck

I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.

Hm. Speed here.

I only have hard townreads as scum, or due to mechanics.
Generally, as town, I'm adaptable. I sometimes trust other people to be better hunters than I am, and only serve to cog up the world and make people evaluate things. I especially pay attention to the flow of the game, who is causing hot potato lynches and how easily lynches are formed.
A little off topic there.
When I'm more active in a game, I usually rely on meta towntells to help me formulate townreads. Hard to do in this game.

That's all I've got. I don't think much of my methodology as town.

[The Dry Flood]

Dry Flood, why is Fratyo town?

Since we are seemingly not in a doublevoter world, is there any reason to vote C&M over Galactic Mac?

linki: hi other head

Sorry to make you do work, but if you're town it will be very helpful.

Can you go from this post through to the end of day 3 and split the posts into which were from speed and which from colin. It's only about 8-10 posts, but this would be very helpful in evaluating your intent in that period.

Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?

[The Dry Flood]

I'm truly 50/50.

Each time I read more or read again, I go back and forth.

If Galactic Mac are bad, the mafia have taken the easy route as a team. Phone it in, get passed over, get loud voices to cannibalize themselves. This is quite viable. From their perspective, the kills wouldn't make so much sense - but that is consistent with disengagement, potentially.

If Colinisspeed is bad, they still fit a traditional baddie archetype. They've kept their options open and killed smartly if it's them. They would make smart kills.

Each has content I like and content I don't like. Right now I feel like I'm flipping a mental coin.

[The Dry Flood]

And someone killed their spouse.

[Celeste]

Speed, since you're busier than I am I can do my best to answer if you see this.

[Celeste]

Speed here. I townread Fratyo early, and Colin's paranoia made me more sus over time in btsc. Just for some context.

Dry Flood, why is Fratyo town?

Since we are seemingly not in a doublevoter world, is there any reason to vote C&M over Galactic Mac?

linki: hi other head

speed

Also, i'm gonna follow you on whereever you go today between Colin/Galactic/Cuphead, but this is important for me to know in case we live another phase and you're dead or something

Fratyo is perfectly content to vote any of these 3, because they have no reads, because they are scum.

colin

I am personally leaning toward believable to the case on Cupheads (dunno about my other head) but notice that they did not try to vote for somebody else out of self-preservation yet.

colin

I could see this as deliberate hiding of a double vote power. Something is ringing a bell with me here regarding epi in Night Vale. He may have had the same power there. Just noting this in case someone gets a look and I can’t.

1-shot doublevote! It's completely optional, and doesn't need to be hidden. This case is built on false info.

Speed

I don't think C&M is anything more than a shot in the dark, especially since we are likely in the ninja world. I'd reaaaally rather not use MYLO lynching them.

speed

If Galactic Mac is the town doublevoter, putting us in that world, then Fratyo is 100% scum who has been trying to get us to no lynch so they can doublevote for the win.

I suspect them either way.

It's worrisome how easily Dry Flood is buddying with them.

speed

I'll try to be back before EOD. We have enough info not to be foolish this lynch. Think about it.

speed

I'll try to be back before EOD. We have enough info not to be foolish this lynch. Think about it.

You seem like a smart fella.

colin

There is a 0% chance Fratyo is bad at this point. The searching has been earnest. I hate the idea that 'you're happy with any of these three because you aren't hunting' when there's two baddies our there.

I would like evidence to this claim. I have provided a series of examples or direct quotes which put Fractal as behaving according to his scum meta, or a general scum meta from him and sprit. On the other hand, you just say “he’s genuine” as if that’s hard proof.

Colin

It's worrisome how easily Dry Flood is buddying with them.

It's worrisome how much you are deliberately ignoring strong evidence of towniness all over the show.

I cannot possibly believe that in the space of a couple of minutes you both correct my understanding of the game role again and are still worried about me. There is huge cognitive dissonance there.

Is it not possible that your understanding of the game is incorrect because it’s not an understanding, but rather, a deliberate ploy? Your latest posts make me feel more that you are town if this is LYLO but I really fail to understand some things here.

colin

If Fractal is bad again and town loses I’m driving to his house to arm wrestle him

colin

Queue up more questions for me. I'll try to answer them in a timely fashion. Still on vacation with crap internet.

linki: TOOO LAAAATE CCCOOOOLLLIIIN

[Celeste]

You're welcome to answer the follow-up questions Colin, at least for a bit. Gonna play a board game.

[Celeste]

I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.

Developing townreads: I'm not sure I have anything to say here that wouldn't be rambling. Generally if people do stuff that I like meta-wise, or has logic that's tight, or rings true to my experiences in the game as far as reads go, or is making what seems to be a genuine (tone read) pro-town effort at gamesolving, those are all things that are a notch in favor. However, as I've said, I'm currently way too eager to award brownie points for false instances of all of that and it loses games. So I'm sort of fighting the impulse to settle on people prematurely as much as I must fight the impulse to tinfoil them ... if that makes sense. This is rambling.

PoE: I haven't really lived long enough in Syndicate games as town to feel like I've used this, but it's obviously a viable strategy if you look to U-Pick, Retro, and others like Easter where it nearly worked out. It depends on having solid town reads, though, so see above ... not sure if I answered this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@jaggedjimmyjay is hammer voting in effect?

No.

[Celeste]

Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?

IIRC, speed and I had discussed both Lunatella and Fratyo at this point. I was suspicious of both, speed was suspicious of Lunatella, so I trusted the combination of our feelings and voted for Lunatella. Speed re-evaluated it (I think he was put off by me giving as much credence to his feelings at this point) and decided I should have trusted my gut toward Fratyo and switched the vote.

[The Dry Flood]

Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?

IIRC, speed and I had discussed both Lunatella and Fratyo at this point. I was suspicious of both, speed was suspicious of Lunatella, so I trusted the combination of our feelings and voted for Lunatella. Speed re-evaluated it (I think he was put off by me giving as much credence to his feelings at this point) and decided I should have trusted my gut toward Fratyo and switched the vote.

What role, if any, did putting Luna in a 3-2 vote lead have in that switch?

[Celeste]

The switch from Luna? Speed will have to answer that. I don't recall being here during that EOD.

[The Dry Flood]

[VOTE: Galactic Mac] aubergine

This vote remains unless Daisy or Mac engage in a way to convince me they are not bad.

[The Dry Flood]

This doesn't mean you should stop answering my questions colin/speed.

But I find the conflict between your heads to be quite persuasive. I'm trying to figure out whether you would fake different reads and allow that to spill out into the thread as a deliberate tactic to appear more town. My answer is - I think no. There's no evidence you've had any town cred for it, and if anything your vote hopping at the end of day two increases rather than decreases the spotlight on you, which is in stark contrast to C & Ms strategy throughout. I tend to believe your heads would be more likely to have somewhat of a more streamlined opinion if you were bad.

This may be the persuasive thing which pushes me over the edge to voting Mac.

But tbh, it could have just been the Fugitive gif

[The Dry Flood]

Also, in honour of Marmot, I did flip a coin. It came up Galactic Mac. I wouldn't go with it blindly but it confirmed that my gut feel was already going that way.

[The Dry Flood]

Also, in honour of Marmot, I did flip a coin. It came up Galactic Mac. I wouldn't go with it blindly but it confirmed that my gut feel was already going that way.

You honor me with coinflips? You're an interesting bird.

I plan to get to the bottom of this without using your silly human currency.

[The Dry Flood]

I am currently driving, which I’m sure gives away which one of us this is, lol. The wedding was fantastic and proved way busier than I expected so I’m really sorry for being absent, but it really couldn’t be avoided.

And I’ve been battling a migraine since Friday night, so please bear with me. I can’t handle staring at this screen for long.

Can someone summarize the case on Cupguys for me?

Dude I’m so out of it here, lol. So the best course is to vote someone we think might be the mafia double voter I get that, how did you settle on Cupguys? I’m sorry for nagging you with questions, but I appreciate not having to go dig to understand what’s happening.

You know what fuck it, I trust you guys know wtf you’re doing and I can’t stand staring at the screen longer.

[VOTE: Cupguys] aubergine

The series of posts from GMac is decent reason to vote this way.

[The Dry Flood]

My one qualm with GMac being mafia, why do they kill fratyo last night?

[The Dry Flood]

[VOTE: Golden] aubergine for now while I do a little reading and catchup.