Dogs vs. Cats [END]

[Michelle]

I agree but while you put me in the Poe i should be a red read for you while you lean more to a null by the description. Correct me if i'm wrong.
Your Poe is again way too large.
I don't want to let you be, every villager counts and every mislynch is bad. I am one of the barking voices here and is my fault to not be heard yet.

How large do you think a POE should be here? I've explained that mine is its specific size because that's the standard calculation given the current numbers.

Not everyone in my POE is a red read. Mac is in it too, and that's because I'm allowed 4 people by the numbers. I don't really think he's a cat. You needn't let me be, ask whatever questions you want.

is like we take this game with different approaches. You teoretise a thing that may be wrong. A Poe should have the players you are convinced they can flip red.
And fyi a good mafia may never be in your Poe like you construct it.
I've played games where a mafia effort was way bigger and townier than from any town in the game. That was a town loss because the Poe thing. Just saying.

[Michelle]

How acts Long Con?
What defines you as either alignament?

Who are in your Poe?

I act how I act. I don't do a lot of Mafia self-reflection, I just say what comes to my mind. I'm pretty laid-back, but I can start throwing things around at times when the level of ignoring me gets high enough.

I don't have a POE.

If you are villager and I can't see you villager i will be very sad because that means i am an idiot voting for you.
How come you don't have a Poe. I am voting you. Am i a good one?
You are voting. The one you're voting is not in your Poe?

This looks phony as hell to me.

what means phony?

[Michelle]

Michelle gets a downgrade for me.

idrc. I am playing my own game and i noticed you as extremely rude. I never like to policy lynch someone but you are good for rope.

[Michelle]

@MacDougall I promise it's not me. Should we just go ahead and lynch Jay?

Nah we should just lynch who he says to lynch until it's glaringly obvious he's a cat.

like we have to play for the sake of playing.and enjoy mislynching townie me for eg

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The Iron Man Experiment: A Defense of the Doghood of JaggedJimmyJay

Thesis proposed toward the requirements for the conferral of the degree Master of Arts, Experimental and Theoretical Mafia

JaggedJimmyJay
The Syndicate University Department of Mafia
19 October, 2019

Thesis committee: Dom, Dragomir, Epignosis, Fayt, Long Con, MacDougall, Michelle, novaselinenever, and nutella

Seriously, I'm not going to drag this out into another endless wall post. I will be as concise as I can in attempting to convey this to you.

American Shorthair (speedchuck) and Wire Fox Terrier (TonyStarkPrime) were killed.

Figure 1: The host's end of Night 2 post indicates the deaths of speedchuck, a cat, and TonyStarkPrime, a dog.

Consider Figure 1. The dog who was killed was TSP, a man who ended the game with three posts and no reads or stances among them. The cat team specifically elected to kill a player with this profile, who would otherwise be a mainstay by default in POE lists across the game. So let's examine why this may have happened:

My first Day 2 rainbow, Tony is green.

Spoiler: show

I'll look over the details later, just hitting the summary right now due to work and other mafia.

Looks reasonable, but TSP should be lower in the rainbow at the end.

I don't blame you for thinking so. I don't see any universe where TSP is a mafioso and only makes two posts Day 1.

TonyStarkPrime is a big civilian read of mine. After Persona 5, the difference cannot be greater. Almost literally. TonyStarkPrime, I very much look forward to your input when you have the time. No worries, I understand life and stuff.

Glad to see you spiraling out of control.

None of that means anything to me. TSP is a civilian read.

I suspect sprityo. What do you guys think of that?

I got nothing there, what you got? TSP is my non-poster suspicion.

I suspect sprityo infinitely more than TSP.

Why are you ruling out TSP?

Night and day difference from Persona 5. This isn't the same guy. I don't think he killed TH because I don't think he is a cat.

My reads are pretty in flux at this point. I feel quite good about Epignosis, Dom, Long Con, and TSP. I think Mac and nova generally look fine. I think Dragomir looks good, but he also feels like a potential blind spot. I think Fayt looks bad, but she also feels like a potential blind spot. Michelle, nutella, and speedchuck are swing reads. sprityo is nothing and thus bad.

If I were to draw up a POE of 4 (I think we're allowed more at this stage) right this moment, it'd be the last four names there.

I need to get some sleep. I have a feeling y'all might actually lynch me this time, so I suppose I'll assemble some legacy stuff as much as I can in the afternoon. I will not be available at the deadline or the 1-2 hours prior; I have an appointment. Just make sure you don't lynch from my good pile please: Epignosis, Long Con, TSP, Dom.

Here are some examples of me completely making up a b/s dog read on TSP and sticking to it through all of Day 2. It's nonsense. I had no reason to read him as a dog; he had nothing. Hence the Iron Man Experiment.

In recent memory, I have had one consistent method for dealing with the lowest-posting players in a game -- stick them in my POE and shrug. That means, to me, they are often lynches I will support (or at least that I am more willing than most others who fear low-hanging fruit or the like). It is a rational approach, but it can also be cold. sprityo was just a victim of this at least to some extent. While I had some suspicion of him based upon Rej's content, sprityo's own content left nothing at all to exonerate him with. So he was in the POE, and I lynch people in the POE. In sprityo's case, it was errant. So it goes.

With TSP, another guy who would generally be tossed into a POE bin, I tried something new. I pretended he was the doggiest dog in the world based upon essentially nothing, like a meta comparison to Persona 5. I was surprised when few people seemed to care. speedchuck did. I left the cat team to interpret that nonsense, and interpret it they did. They shot him in the face. It was one of a few possibilities:

1) I get shot in the face. Fine, I was a suspect anyway in the wake of the Long Con wagon.
2) Tony gets shot in the face. Great, the cats do our work for us.
3) Neither of these happens and the game goes on. Okay.

The early experiment results are quite promising!

So then when faced with the question: "Is JJJ a cat?", another question exists by extension: "Did JJJ kill TSP?"

That is to ask: "Did JJJ do all this stuff for the sole purpose of WIFOM, so that he could come here today and talk about it?" If one is to say yes to this, then that means the following must hold:
~ Cat JJJ shot a guy with three posts who could have otherwise been mislynch bait.
~ Cat JJJ thinks that losing this mislynch bait is a worthy sacrifice for the sake of pursuing a WIFOM defense.
~ Cat JJJ expects civilians to care about a WIFOM defense.

It's exactly this kind of stuff that brings me to often talk about "coulds" versus "probables". Could JJJ have done that as a cat? Yes, I could have from the perspectives of any other dog. That question is not very meaningful though, because anything could be anything. We can talk in circles about any theory in this way. The question that matters is this one: Did JJJ do that as a cat, or is he just a dog?

One of these worlds makes much more sense, and I can only hope folks will see that. I'm a dog. This should be strong evidence that I'm a dog. The third tilde up there in the cat hypotheticals applies to my dog form as well: I realize some people will just never care about something like this no matter how much sense it makes. Oh well. I have to try to speak to anyone who will pay attention.

There you have it. Take it or leave it. Sorry, this post still ended up bigger than I hoped.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

is like we take this game with different approaches. You teoretise a thing that may be wrong. A Poe should have the players you are convinced they can flip red.
And fyi a good mafia may never be in your Poe like you construct it.
I've played games where a mafia effort was way bigger and townier than from any town in the game. That was a town loss because the Poe thing. Just saying.

Oh I realize it isn't a foolproof method. There is no strategy I have ever encountered in all my years of Mafia that can never be beaten. I have had some success on occasion though doing my thing.

My job is to assess everyone to the best of my ability and to make judgments. My judgments in this game have left me where I am now. I don't agree with the bit I highlighted in yellow. Indeed, the only cat read I have any confidence in right now is Fayt. The rest are alternatives that I cannot exonerate.

I am open to cases against anyone else too. Just give me the goods.

[Fayt]

hello sorry. I had a very long day at work and I'm not feeling very well so apologies if I don't reply right away. Regarding my vote last phase, it was rushed. I went on kinda late before the lynch and ended up being not confident in the LC vote. I was waffling between Dragomir and Sprityo but ended up with Sprityo cause I didn't like his posts and the people I townread also voted for him so I was a little more secure with that vote.

I know it doesn't look good for me on top of the very poor timing that I'm not feeling well too but if the lynch does happen for me, I hope my mislynch would go into finding the real scum.

[nutella]

.....That is the hugest and possibly most transparent load of bullshit I've ever seen from you. You are evil and planned this entire thing. You *admit* to it. And your cover story doesn't check out. You *did* have reason to townread him -- how different his behavior was from P5. And don't give me that "meta is bullshit" crap. It was a real enough reason to assume Tony was town here; I heavily agreed with it. And he was absolutely not mislynch bait, ever, especially because you planted the townread of him anyway. In no world was he mislynch bait. Holy shit lmao. You just set this up to claim that. I see right through your little experiment.[VOTE: jay] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

hello sorry. I had a very long day at work and I'm not feeling very well so apologies if I don't reply right away. Regarding my vote last phase, it was rushed. I went on kinda late before the lynch and ended up being not confident in the LC vote. I was waffling between Dragomir and Sprityo but ended up with Sprityo cause I didn't like his posts and the people I townread also voted for him so I was a little more secure with that vote.

I know it doesn't look good for me on top of the very poor timing that I'm not feeling well too but if the lynch does happen for me, I hope my mislynch would go into finding the real scum.

I will listen to what you have to say when you're able to get there. The most important thing to me is this: if you're not the last cat, who is?

Feel better!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

.....That is the hugest and possibly most transparent load of bullshit I've ever seen from you. You are evil and planned this entire thing. You *admit* to it. And your cover story doesn't check out. You *did* have reason to townread him -- how different his behavior was from P5. And don't give me that "meta is bullshit" crap. It was a real enough reason to assume Tony was town here; I heavily agreed with it. And he was absolutely not mislynch bait, ever, especially because you planted the townread of him anyway. In no world was he mislynch bait. Holy shit lmao. You just set this up to claim that. I see right through your little experiment.[VOTE: jay] aubergine

Cat JJJ thinks civilians care about WIFOM defenses.

Okay.

[nutella]

I don't care what makes more sense. I care that your argument has actual gaping holes in it. Because it is entirely fabricated.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Whatever y'all decide, my thing worked out perfectly and I am really proud of that. It's something brand new in my civilian arsenal that I think I can use in the future.

[nutella]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't care what makes more sense. I care that your argument has actual gaping holes in it. Because it is entirely fabricated.

There is no way I ever seriously give 3-post TSP a civilian card in this game on the basis of Persona 5 lol. That's a terrible read.

[nutella]

I don't care what makes more sense. I care that your argument has actual gaping holes in it. Because it is entirely fabricated.

There is no way I ever seriously give 3-post TSP a civilian card in this game on the basis of Persona 5 lol. That's a terrible read.

Well, I did. And it looks like it was a great read.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

[nutella]

It's not exactly purely in comparison to P5, more just the lack of participation on its own merit points to more likely town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Common sense is dead. Y'all do what you do. Honestly I can't even be bothered at this point. There's just no accounting for the shit that happens inside the heads of people playing Mafia.

[nutella]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

No. Not even remotely realistic. I'm actually incredulous right now at how obviously you're lying.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

No. Not even remotely realistic. I'm actually incredulous right now at how obviously you're lying.

I am honestly baffled that you feel that way. Seriously. Genuinely. I am baffled. It makes zero sense. I don't know what to say to you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Like, I am actually glad that what you're saying is wrong. It is a relief to me. As dumb as I might be sometimes, and I can be dumb, I'm not that dumb. Thank goodness.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

[nutella]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

[nutella]

To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

The inane "thesis" framing wasn't helping your case.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

The inane "thesis" framing wasn't helping your case.

Sometimes I like to be creative and silly.

[nutella]

I'm going to bed. [mention]MacDougall[/mention] tell me I'm right.

[nutella]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

Second or third time you've literally scum slipped l m f a o

[nutella]

Perspective slips are a real thing hang on let me explain

[Michelle]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

i like the tone here no matter JJJ's alignament she is sassy and i saw scum Nutella sweeter and non confrontational.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

i like the tone here no matter JJJ's alignament she is sassy and i saw scum Nutella sweeter and non confrontational.

nutella is a dog. She's just swirling into an overconfident snowball over something that I am not sure I will ever understand. It happens.

[Fayt]

hello sorry. I had a very long day at work and I'm not feeling very well so apologies if I don't reply right away. Regarding my vote last phase, it was rushed. I went on kinda late before the lynch and ended up being not confident in the LC vote. I was waffling between Dragomir and Sprityo but ended up with Sprityo cause I didn't like his posts and the people I townread also voted for him so I was a little more secure with that vote.

I know it doesn't look good for me on top of the very poor timing that I'm not feeling well too but if the lynch does happen for me, I hope my mislynch would go into finding the real scum.

I will listen to what you have to say when you're able to get there. The most important thing to me is this: if you're not the last cat, who is?

Feel better!

I would have to rethink about my town read on Mac mainly because when I looked at the voting pattern, speedchuck followed Mac. If the theory of bussing is true, was there like a 3-way distance going on at the same time? His vote on me currently doesn't inspire much confidence, because if it goes like this -> I get mislynched because you started the wagon on me, you would then get shot or lynched. This is assuming you are town...

The thing about Speedchuck saying is there a chance drago and rej are both bad bother me too because I don't know if that's a slip.

And I also reconsidered my read to you but you're on the lower spectrum because I am wondering if you are the last cat, what would be your plan afterwards if/when you mislynch me because 1. you jumped off of Rej. 2. went after sprityo. 3. going after me. Who is going to believe you at this point.

[nutella]

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

[Michelle]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

you know what the problem is? You just voted for him. You needed town help for the lynch.
The bolded is fake

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Defending myself may have been a mistake. That much is already apparent. If the WIFOM allergy is prevalent, then I have made myself more likely to be lynched than before, and that's a bummer. Next time I will consider keeping my fun experiments to myself. I hate hiding anything as a civilian, but sometimes one has to be mindful of the way other civilians tend to think. Where there's any perceived room for a mastermind plot, the mastermind plot will probably reign.

[Michelle]

Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

i like the tone here no matter JJJ's alignament she is sassy and i saw scum Nutella sweeter and non confrontational.

nutella is a dog. She's just swirling into an overconfident snowball over something that I am not sure I will ever understand. It happens.

Did you just TMIed Nutella civ?
TMI= too much information

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

[nutella]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

you know what the problem is? You just voted for him. You needed town help for the lynch.
The bolded is fake

Got em

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

you know what the problem is? You just voted for him. You needed town help for the lynch.
The bolded is fake

See above. I "led" the lynch. To me the difference is trivial. It's mafiababble.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And I also reconsidered my read to you but you're on the lower spectrum because I am wondering if you are the last cat, what would be your plan afterwards if/when you mislynch me because 1. you jumped off of Rej. 2. went after sprityo. 3. going after me. Who is going to believe you at this point.

I don't understand this point. If I am the last cat, then anyone I try to lynch in this game is a dog -- whether you or whoever else. So why is it special that I am going after you?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Fayt's a cat, so if y'all get your rocks off on me don't be silly after I'm gone please.

[nutella]

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

Except you had some content to base the sprityo lynch on. There was something to go on. The same could not be said for Tony. I would not have joined you there because there would be no reasoning.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

Except you had some content to base the sprityo lynch on. There was something to go on. The same could not be said for Tony. I would not have joined you there because there would be no reasoning.

If sprityo is dead today and there isn't a clear consensus on the direction with Tony alive, you can be absolutely certain that I will view Tony as an option to pursue. Not everyone will go for it, but I don't need everyone. That's the game.

In some future game, use that against me. Because I will definitely do it.

[Michelle]

Looking at wagons smh

Is a nonsense to vote for Drago who is doing nothing and i can't think he wants to endgame with this playstyle as the last cat. Epignosis is not so bad per se, he is looking like a wrong villager.

I don't expect from any flipped cat to have wolfish interactions with the godfather because this would take him out like a sore thumb.

I need to reread some things and vote later

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]nutella[/mention], can you expand on why you don't think it can be Michelle? If she can removed from the POE then none of this junk matters and the game is probably over anyway.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

.....That is the hugest and possibly most transparent load of bullshit I've ever seen from you. You are evil and planned this entire thing. You *admit* to it. And your cover story doesn't check out. You *did* have reason to townread him -- how different his behavior was from P5. And don't give me that "meta is bullshit" crap. It was a real enough reason to assume Tony was town here; I heavily agreed with it. And he was absolutely not mislynch bait, ever, especially because you planted the townread of him anyway. In no world was he mislynch bait. Holy shit lmao. You just set this up to claim that. I see right through your little experiment.[VOTE: jay] aubergine

I think if you step back and think about the highlighted bit you'll identify a problem with your reasoning.

[nutella]

nutella, can you expand on why you don't think it can be Michelle? If she can removed from the POE then none of this junk matters and the game is probably over anyway.

Hard tone read mostly, but it has a stronger basis than my fayt read. I might explain more in the morning I really gotta sleep

[JaggedJimmyJay]

nutella made a point about Dragomir being in good shape by way of the Day 2 voting. The raw end poll corroborates that: Dragomir had 3 votes, and was the largest counter to the sprityo lynch. So speedchuck had an out if he wanted to keep Dragomir alive. I think this needs to be qualified with the timing of votes, so hopefully people called them.

[nutella]

Let me just say that if the iron man experiment is real, it is in fact genius. I need to sleep on it tbh.