Inception [Inception Phase 4]

[iaafr]

can you quote the strongest bits of insight from epi

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]

would like to wake up to a mention with this, please and thank you

gn

[Pawn Lelouch]

but i mean yeah your logics a bit weird

wouldnt keeping him alive to keep sussing the towncore sow suspicion on its own?

why would scum assume people would even remember nooks reads

Yes, but Nook was relatively low impact in the thread so he probably wouldn't make much progress and might even be convinced to change his mind. Better to go for the guarantee rather than a gamble.

Because it's good town play to look back at those who died to try and divine the intent as to why they died. Since there is always a discernible reason behind a scum nightkill. The trick is actually figuring it out. Plus remembering the reads of one of 14 other players is far easier than that of 29 other players. Especially since scum could potentially just point it out themselves in thread as a reason why Nook could have been a silencing kill. So there's a fair chance that town would easily remember the reads or scum would just state it themselves.

I'm basically assuming that Epi is scum based off this as I read into the kill more and more. If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view, which fits my mental image of Epi's style and even is something he has stated in previous days.

[iaafr]

i dont recall anybody else seriously reading into the nook kill other than you

did epi do it at all?

[iaafr]

im just calling it a kill you know what i mean etc

[Pawn Lelouch]

i dont recall anybody else seriously reading into the nook kill other than you

did epi do it at all?

Checked for the keyword Nook and the main thing is Radishes doing his explicitly super spice post calling you, me, and Eva powerwolfing scum. Otherwise it's primarily just people saying Nook was the likely NK.

[iaafr]

keep circling within sprit dom radishes pawn epi so ill just say thats my list of 5 ill vote in there for now

[Master Radishes]

can you quote the strongest bits of insight from epi

@Master Radishes

would like to wake up to a mention with this, please and thank you

gn

I've seen it and will do it in x hours. Not doing it on phone, so I'll wait till I get home tonight.

[sprityo]

but i mean yeah your logics a bit weird

wouldnt keeping him alive to keep sussing the towncore sow suspicion on its own?

why would scum assume people would even remember nooks reads

Yes, but Nook was relatively low impact in the thread so he probably wouldn't make much progress and might even be convinced to change his mind. Better to go for the guarantee rather than a gamble.

Because it's good town play to look back at those who died to try and divine the intent as to why they died. Since there is always a discernible reason behind a scum nightkill. The trick is actually figuring it out. Plus remembering the reads of one of 14 other players is far easier than that of 29 other players. Especially since scum could potentially just point it out themselves in thread as a reason why Nook could have been a silencing kill. So there's a fair chance that town would easily remember the reads or scum would just state it themselves.

I'm basically assuming that Epi is scum based off this as I read into the kill more and more. If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view, which fits my mental image of Epi's style and even is something he has stated in previous days.

What if someone not in the current thread decided the kill? As in nook was killed in relation to someone else?

[Master Radishes]

I can assure you radish that provoking dom was not on my list of things i wanted to do.

Begs the question then, what's on the list?

[Master Radishes]

but i mean yeah your logics a bit weird

wouldnt keeping him alive to keep sussing the towncore sow suspicion on its own?

why would scum assume people would even remember nooks reads

Yes, but Nook was relatively low impact in the thread so he probably wouldn't make much progress and might even be convinced to change his mind. Better to go for the guarantee rather than a gamble.

Because it's good town play to look back at those who died to try and divine the intent as to why they died. Since there is always a discernible reason behind a scum nightkill. The trick is actually figuring it out. Plus remembering the reads of one of 14 other players is far easier than that of 29 other players. Especially since scum could potentially just point it out themselves in thread as a reason why Nook could have been a silencing kill. So there's a fair chance that town would easily remember the reads or scum would just state it themselves.

I'm basically assuming that Epi is scum based off this as I read into the kill more and more. If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view, which fits my mental image of Epi's style and even is something he has stated in previous days.

What if someone not in the current thread decided the kill? As in nook was killed in relation to someone else?

... That's a decent point actually. If the Mafia don't know who ascends or descends levels either, someone like 112 or Mac might have chosen the kill for other reasons.

[Master Radishes]

Or LLD...

[sprityo]

I can assure you radish that provoking dom was not on my list of things i wanted to do.

Begs the question then, what's on the list?

1. To not die
2. To solve the game

[sprityo]

Yea, blew your minds didn’t I?

[Dom]

radishes any notably updated thoughts on dom, jack, sprityo, and epi's most recent posting

Not sure how notable.

Dom - abrasive, tunnely, dare I say dickish...but I'm beginning to spot actual consideration in his posts. He reads more to me as a townie entering late and trying to make a mark than a wolf with an agenda.

Jack - idfk, I switch my read constantly. He had a moment in D1 I liked, a vote I didn't, general play D2 I didn't, and general play today I do.

Sprityo - I like his posts when I read for the first time. I did an ISO yesterday for interaction with Dom and actually liked his posts less. They felt too calculated in how he handled Dom, like he was pretending to take the high road buy actually wanted to keep provoking. Haven't ISOed recent posts.

Epi - I like the more I see. Insightful. Possible deepwolf but do not forsee voting there today.

1) stop. I am in absolute awe that y'all find me to be the most abraisive and dickish person on this site and that I deserve to be put to death for it. And it's all over mild interrogation. Y'all would have probably peed yourself if you saw A World Apart, Star Wars, or ye olde games of yesteryear. This is absolutely nothing. I honestly struggle to think of a single post I made that was too far. I really do. But I do not struggle to find a single post where y'all don't go way out of line with me. [mention]speedchuck[/mention] , add it to the list, I guess.

That aside-- your read of sprityo is tracking with mine. Sprit tried to manipulate me based on the drama you're referencing, saying I'm poorly behaved. This is so out of character for him. I have never had an issue with sprityo in this regard before, so

I can assure you radish that provoking dom was not on my list of things i wanted to do.

You're right.
But you weren't hoping to provoke me. You were hoping to placate me.

[Dom]

Epi yo ucan yell at me for not proofreading that and leaving the 1) in because I was gonna make a numbered list but realized I didn't have more than two so why bother

[Master Radishes]

1) stop. I am in absolute awe that y'all find me to be the most abraisive and dickish person on this site and that I deserve to be put to death for it. And it's all over mild interrogation. Y'all would have probably peed yourself if you saw A World Apart, Star Wars, or ye olde games of yesteryear. This is absolutely nothing. I honestly struggle to think of a single post I made that was too far. I really do. But I do not struggle to find a single post where y'all don't go way out of line with me. @speedchuck , add it to the list, I guess.

The 'dickish' comment was a joke based on earlier comments.

But you've been abrasive to iaafr, so I don't know why you take issue with that. I'm stating a fact, not saying you're scum for doing it. Stop playing the victim and let's talk about sprityo or whoever else you want.

[Evenstar]

oh my god

[mention]Dom[/mention]

When you said to radishes "you're so bad" today

you meant he was clearly scum, not that he sucked at mafia

right?

[Evenstar]

... still don't like the donald trump comparison

or the fact that you call rabbit "whiny"

... you were definitely abrasive and unfair to rabbit. I stand by that assessment. It was not necessary to tell them to "fuck off" or to pile on like three posts characterizing them as childish and oversensitive.

That said, your play later today is much more reasonable. I do frankly think you were over the line early, but you've reeled it in since. I got overly heated too; calling you a dick and an asshole was over the line from me, and I apologize. I react very badly to things I percieve as bullying.

Let's both back off the heated rhetoric and play this game more courteously, yeah? I think we're both frustrated by this unexpected secret-voting environment, and that's making tensions higher than they ought to be. When combined with the fact that I read your first post today as just straight-up dunking on Radishes' play, I definitely jumped to some super hasty conclusions.

[Evenstar]

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]

Yeah, you're scum. The vague shade on me justified by nightkill wine after spending most of the day sheeping my reads is very, very not a good look from you. I 100% expect you to turn around and try to dunk me tomorrow based on what you're saying right now. Engaging with Rabbit's paranoia and suggesting that everyone on lower floors got modkilled is blatant fearmongering, particularly as we know there was a lower-level lynch yesterday which you seem to have unaccountably forgotten about.

That, more than anything, is what's making my brain be filled with fuck here. You're a mechanical player. How the hell did you mislay one of the two flips we've had in this entire game???

And yes, yes, "my reads are fixed, status quo is town" - why then did you follow me when I upended half my reads earlier today? Your words and your actions are not in agreement with each other, and you're already laying groundwork against me because you're worried I'll notice.

Yeah, I notice. I really, really notice.

{Pawn, Dom, Epi}

[Evenstar]

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

[Dom]

1) stop. I am in absolute awe that y'all find me to be the most abraisive and dickish person on this site and that I deserve to be put to death for it. And it's all over mild interrogation. Y'all would have probably peed yourself if you saw A World Apart, Star Wars, or ye olde games of yesteryear. This is absolutely nothing. I honestly struggle to think of a single post I made that was too far. I really do. But I do not struggle to find a single post where y'all don't go way out of line with me. @speedchuck , add it to the list, I guess.

The 'dickish' comment was a joke based on earlier comments.

But you've been abrasive to iaafr, so I don't know why you take issue with that. I'm stating a fact, not saying you're scum for doing it. Stop playing the victim and let's talk about sprityo or whoever else you want.

I don't take issue with being abrasive. I actually think if y'all think that's abrasive, yee haw wait 'til you meet everyone else.

oh my god

@Dom

When you said to radishes "you're so bad" today

you meant he was clearly scum, not that he sucked at mafia

right?

Yes.
I have played in a culture where we said bad not scum.

[Dom]

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

This is your best post and I like it a lot.

Pawn just replaced Jack in mybottom three.

[Evenstar]

I'm going back through Pawn's ISO now, will update with what I find.

[Dom]

Pawn clearly didn't care what he accusations against iaafr were-- any way to clear him, he was cool with.

Why?

[Evenstar]

So 9 here. Nova and Nook either died or moved up to the top level by the sounds of things, with Nova being the likely lynch vote of the two.

LLD, Quin, Mac, and 112 are missing. And I think we had 15 so that should be everyone accounted for.

We had 16. Pawn's forgotten about Michelle. Normally I'd ignore this, but this is unlike him: he's generally a very detail-oriented player. I don't know what it means but it's weird.

We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

This was weird when I read it the first time and it's still weird now. I just don't see how someone of Pawn's caliber looks at the Spiny flip and concludes "janitored."

Since if [who advances to the next round is] player controlled we can probably divine information based on who was left behind and who kept going, at least at this stage of the game. The first drop was too large to really pin down, while going from 15 to this is fairly manageable in terms of intent reading.

This is a good thought, but I have seen absolutely no followup from Pawn on it since he made it. Instead he's hared off on nightkill analysis.

{Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

This is post #42.

from the people here my immediate top 3 are {colin/dom/jack}

the lack of a nova flip is a real bitch

This is post #33.

I was making no secret of my Iaafr read, and of course Pawn is going to put me in the top bracket if he's trying to pocket me. I accepted this as a mindmeld then, but now it's giving me flashbacks to Geo and RedDevil in the MU finals.

{Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

I endorse this list in its entirety

except sprit is not fluid he's solidly in the middle group

Is this due to his emotional outburst around EOD? Trying to figure out where you're getting the confidence for the placement there.

I was able to get Pawn to reverse on this, but then he flopped back into reading Sprityo as scum later in the day.

That kind of flip-flop says he really does want Sprityo lynched, which feels towny to me... but it could also be Pawn knowing that he has to ML Sprityo to save a partner or win the final 5. This pushes me towards it being Pawn/Colin or Pawn/Dom if Pawn is scum.

We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

... is it common for janitors to be able to work on lynches? I don't get where you're getting this "janitor" idea from.

Yeah. Janitors pretty commonly work on lynches, otherwise their utility would be severely hampered. Clearing info from cops + gunsmiths are nice and all, but lynches are where the actual main use of the ability lies imo.

And I thought it was a guaranteed janitor since I saw it was boo, but was too busy finishing up my service learning for the day to look at the actual text closely and see that it strongly hinted mason before it was deleted. So I just saw redacted and kinda auto assumed janitor throughout the night since I believe it was one of the listed possible roles at the beginning and it fits with the info removal.

... Now that I consider this again, the #1 point of janitoring a lynch would be to destroy the alignment information from the flip. That information was intact in Spiny's flip. This really feels like Pawn trying to cover for a scumslip.

Like, the most potentially sus thing that I could see would be how you, ES, and myself all have the same bottom 3 with the order being ES, myself, and then you, with the argument that this is either two scum buddying a townie or a scum player faking a read list to consenus players.

But even then I wouldn't have them down there if I didn't consider them the most sus players in the game right now, so while that thought process could technically have merit, it's not one worth discussing as of right now.

I could be reading in too much here, but my hindbrain is screaming that this hedge is more setup for a flip on me or rabbit. The "a scum player faking a read list to consensus players" theory also leaps out at me now.

Would Pawn be that brazen? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh maybe. He does like to post little "injokes" when he's scum: the trouble is he does it when he's town as well. I'm going to set this aside as NAI for now, but I'd like others to put eyeballs on it and express their own opinions.

Pawn, you seem to have an affinity for iaafr. Can you elaborate?

An affinity in terms of having a read that I believe is correct or personality + style?

You seem to like what he's doing. Any outside commentary from someone I even remotely trust would be coveted.

For the most part since early D1 I've honestly found him to be largely acting in a town manner and I generally like the direction that he has pushed in terms of reads. And yes, he did the unvote rather than vote but that doesn't change that he's been fairly solid everywhere else this game.

Especially when you consider the fact that the fact that he removed the 112 vote still helped with Drago and is something that he had to have known would be scummy looking as either alignment due to timing. And full disclosure that is the type of play I have done before, and while it's risky it is something that can work in terms of trying to guarantee a life extension. So I can see the thought process and the weird half measure doesn't feel like scum in that instance, since he would have committed to a hard stance and not ended it on the no lynch.

And while I think iaafr is overreacting in terms of annoyance from your questions I can see how his frustration comes from the setup and is being exacerbated, where the way he is reacting isn't necessarily productive, but feels like town iaafr from what I've observed in other games and spec.

This is a good post. It explains why he's reading Iaafr as town despite the unvote, engages with Epi's concerns, but still comes away with a firm opinion on Iaafr. I don't like the "Iaafr is overreacting" read when he said not five minutes ago that Epi was over-pressuring Iaafr, but I'm still chalking up townpoints to Pawn here.

Alright, @Epignosis and @iaafr can you both leave the thread for 30 minutes to an hour? So both of you can cool off and stop sniping and we can try to make the thread productive again once you return.

This looks good in that context. I believe that Pawn thinks this is a T/T fight and he's trying to get the two to disengage. I don't like how he's been trending downwards on Epi later based apparently entirely on my reasoning regarding the Iaafr pressure. I'm used to Pawn having a very independent train of thought from my own, and it's really starting to feel like he's just sheeping me there, especially given that he was apparently still strongly reading Epi town at this point.

[Evenstar]

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]
Can you please explain your reasons for moving Epi down in your reads? Are you just sheeping me, or do you have independent thoughts there?

[Evenstar]

Pawn clearly didn't care what he accusations against iaafr were-- any way to clear him, he was cool with.

Why?

If I had to guess I would say he's trying to pocket me/rabbit. There's the possibility that he's scum with rabbit, but his saying to Rabbit that Epi is overreacting and to Epi that Rabbit is overreacting strikes me more as a W/T/T or T/T/T interaction than a W/W/T one. That looks like he's trying to earn towncred with both of them by playing the neutral mediator.

[ColinIsCool]

Pawn's post this phase are intent on maintaining the status quo.

I am catching up but this kind of exactly explains my earlier unease tangibly. Pawn is posting and helpful and stuff but it just feels too careful almost.

[Evenstar]

I looked at Pawn's read of Colin and saw that it moved up to neutral and got all sus about it, but it turned out to be a total nothingburger. It's pretty clear he got forced into the middle by Pawn's degrading read of Epignosis, which he has sufficiently explained even if do I think NKA is generally a bad plan.

I still want Pawn to explain why his mechanical play is sucking so badly right now though. I'm used to him being the one to call me out on things like my doublevoter fuckup, rather than smiling and nodding and going 'that's nice dear.' The "15 players" and "it was a janitor" reads are also deeply wtf, along with the fact that he takes his NKA, says "this kill points at Eva", and then turns 90 degrees to slam Epi for it rather than me. Either he's taking the idea that I'm mechanically confirmed far too seriously, or he's deliberately trying to avoid my ire. Either one is not a great look.

[ColinIsCool]

I don’t agree with a single thing iaafr has said but they kind of remind me of other wishy-washy-all-over-the-place people who turned out to be townies in past games. Might be cooling off there

[Evenstar]

@Pawn Lelouch
Can you please explain your reasons for moving Epi down in your reads? Are you just sheeping me, or do you have independent thoughts there?

never mind, it's the NKA, I had a brain fart

I still don't think that's a good reason but it's certainly explained well enough

I'm more interested in your answers regarding iaafr and the janitor thing now

[Evenstar]

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]

For convenience's sake, here's a condensed summary of what I actually want from you:
1: Why did you believe that Spiny's lynch had been janitored when her alignment information was intact?
2: Why did you believe that a doublevoter would have incentive to vote no lynch?
3: Why do you read Epignosis badly based on your NKA when you say the kill points at me?
4: Is it really a coincidence that 90% of your read movement tracks with mine?
5: How on earth did you manage to forget that there were 16 players yesterday?
6: Why are you entertaining Rabbit's paranoia that everyone except us is dead when Spiny was clearly lynched in a lower layer yesterday?

And while I'm at it:
7: Give me your latest reads on me, Dom, Colin and Iaafr.

[Evenstar]

you just said frankly 3 times in your last two posts pawn

thats not a good look my friend

Welcome to my verbal tics emporium. Might I interest you in seeing the genuinely exhibit? Or perhaps the honestly one? That's an old favorite of mine.

[mention]iaafr[/mention] [mention]Epignosis[/mention]

This is in fact a thing Pawn does regardless of alignment, don't factor it in to your read.

[Pawn Lelouch]

@Pawn Lelouch

Yeah, you're scum. The vague shade on me justified by nightkill wine after spending most of the day sheeping my reads is very, very not a good look from you. I 100% expect you to turn around and try to dunk me tomorrow based on what you're saying right now. Engaging with Rabbit's paranoia and suggesting that everyone on lower floors got modkilled is blatant fearmongering, particularly as we know there was a lower-level lynch yesterday which you seem to have unaccountably forgotten about.

That, more than anything, is what's making my brain be filled with fuck here. You're a mechanical player. How the hell did you mislay one of the two flips we've had in this entire game???

And yes, yes, "my reads are fixed, status quo is town" - why then did you follow me when I upended half my reads earlier today? Your words and your actions are not in agreement with each other, and you're already laying groundwork against me because you're worried I'll notice.

Yeah, I notice. I really, really notice.

{Pawn, Dom, Epi}

...

The supposed "shade" from the Nook kill is something that I specifically said applied to both of us and is something I used to increase my read of you, with me explicitly explaining why that was a bad argument when I brought it up.

With Rabbit's post I wasn't fearmongering, the fuck? I said that the only way for only the bottom level to matter is for every other player to be dead except us and that is a special kind of bullshit which I don't think exists. That is me looking at his paranoia and pointing out reasons why it's bad.

The fact that I have a shitty memory and didn't save things between threads on principle when I thought about it. Especially when the initial Boo flip had just been something I got a small glance of right at the beginning of the night before the initial delete. That had been during my tennis service learning course, I quite literally didn't have time to give it more than a minor glance. You may not like it but in a bad memory with this situation? Pretty damn easy to waylay something like that.

Eva there are 9 players. I have not wavered from multiple days of putting you, me, and iaafr on top, with MR in the middle, and Dom at the bottom. That has been 5 slots that have basically been fixed in place. Now look at the other 4.

Colin, Epi, Jack, and Sprit. Sprit has explicitly been a placeholder slot for me due to space and remember how earlier I had basically said him and Jack were basically floaty between middle and bottom? Yeah, I do too, bringing it down to 3 potential unaltered slots.

And Colin is literally a case of minimal content so flip a coin on where he goes. My actual stated read on him has not changed at all, it's literally that Epi has gone down that made him get the slot rather than anything he did.

So 2 slots that have altered. And even then, Jack had been the other one that I had called floaty between bottom and middle, so his play recently merely solidified what I'd been seeing rather than being anything new. So the one large change is my Epi view. 1 (1.5) read out of 9.

Despite what you are saying that is not a large change, especially when so many of the players are a weird uncleared mess. Also want to point out I'm not a bussy scum and you know this. If I'm on your scum read list why are you putting me in with Epi and Dom, ie my two most solid scum reads?

[Pawn Lelouch]

but i mean yeah your logics a bit weird

wouldnt keeping him alive to keep sussing the towncore sow suspicion on its own?

why would scum assume people would even remember nooks reads

Yes, but Nook was relatively low impact in the thread so he probably wouldn't make much progress and might even be convinced to change his mind. Better to go for the guarantee rather than a gamble.

Because it's good town play to look back at those who died to try and divine the intent as to why they died. Since there is always a discernible reason behind a scum nightkill. The trick is actually figuring it out. Plus remembering the reads of one of 14 other players is far easier than that of 29 other players. Especially since scum could potentially just point it out themselves in thread as a reason why Nook could have been a silencing kill. So there's a fair chance that town would easily remember the reads or scum would just state it themselves.

I'm basically assuming that Epi is scum based off this as I read into the kill more and more. If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view, which fits my mental image of Epi's style and even is something he has stated in previous days.

What if someone not in the current thread decided the kill? As in nook was killed in relation to someone else?

That's actually a good point to consider. That would change things up by a fair bit.

[Pawn Lelouch]

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

No, I'm saying that it fits with iaafr's stated goal of survival, which is a towny motivation and one I believe in since I would do and have done similar plays. I do not think they would catch him on one wagon, but it fits with his stated motivations and actions better than most of the other potential powers and so it fits as the one he has and is tied with a naturally towny motivation.

[Evenstar]

@Pawn Lelouch

Yeah, you're scum. The vague shade on me justified by nightkill wine after spending most of the day sheeping my reads is very, very not a good look from you. I 100% expect you to turn around and try to dunk me tomorrow based on what you're saying right now. Engaging with Rabbit's paranoia and suggesting that everyone on lower floors got modkilled is blatant fearmongering, particularly as we know there was a lower-level lynch yesterday which you seem to have unaccountably forgotten about.

That, more than anything, is what's making my brain be filled with fuck here. You're a mechanical player. How the hell did you mislay one of the two flips we've had in this entire game???

And yes, yes, "my reads are fixed, status quo is town" - why then did you follow me when I upended half my reads earlier today? Your words and your actions are not in agreement with each other, and you're already laying groundwork against me because you're worried I'll notice.

Yeah, I notice. I really, really notice.

{Pawn, Dom, Epi}

...

The supposed "shade" from the Nook kill is something that I specifically said applied to both of us and is something I used to increase my read of you, with me explicitly explaining why that was a bad argument when I brought it up.

With Rabbit's post I wasn't fearmongering, the fuck? I said that the only way for only the bottom level to matter is for every other player to be dead except us and that is a special kind of bullshit which I don't think exists. That is me looking at his paranoia and pointing out reasons why it's bad.

The fact that I have a shitty memory and didn't save things between threads on principle when I thought about it. Especially when the initial Boo flip had just been something I got a small glance of right at the beginning of the night before the initial delete. That had been during my tennis service learning course, I quite literally didn't have time to give it more than a minor glance. You may not like it but in a bad memory with this situation? Pretty damn easy to waylay something like that.

Eva there are 9 players. I have not wavered from multiple days of putting you, me, and iaafr on top, with MR in the middle, and Dom at the bottom. That has been 5 slots that have basically been fixed in place. Now look at the other 4.

Colin, Epi, Jack, and Sprit. Sprit has explicitly been a placeholder slot for me due to space and remember how earlier I had basically said him and Jack were basically floaty between middle and bottom? Yeah, I do too, bringing it down to 3 potential unaltered slots.

And Colin is literally a case of minimal content so flip a coin on where he goes. My actual stated read on him has not changed at all, it's literally that Epi has gone down that made him get the slot rather than anything he did.

So 2 slots that have altered. And even then, Jack had been the other one that I had called floaty between bottom and middle, so his play recently merely solidified what I'd been seeing rather than being anything new. So the one large change is my Epi view. 1 (1.5) read out of 9.

Despite what you are saying that is not a large change, especially when so many of the players are a weird uncleared mess. Also want to point out I'm not a bussy scum and you know this. If I'm on your scum read list why are you putting me in with Epi and Dom, ie my two most solid scum reads?

Rabbit paranoia answer is good. "Crap memory" on the Spiny post is a bit convenient but I'll let it pass. I get the Colin/Epi thing, sorry about putting that to you in the first place. As for "not a bussy scum" - while that's inherently a deeply wine-y argument, I do acknowledge that's your meta and that makes it pretty unlikely you're with Epi or Dom.

I still would like you to go through your reasoning on Epi and Iaafr again slowly. Yes, I know you've explained both your Rabbit and Epi reads; please do so again in a broader context. I want to see how you get where you are.

god I hate our meta sometimes

[Pawn Lelouch]

So 9 here. Nova and Nook either died or moved up to the top level by the sounds of things, with Nova being the likely lynch vote of the two.

LLD, Quin, Mac, and 112 are missing. And I think we had 15 so that should be everyone accounted for.

We had 16. Pawn's forgotten about Michelle. Normally I'd ignore this, but this is unlike him: he's generally a very detail-oriented player. I don't know what it means but it's weird.

We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

This was weird when I read it the first time and it's still weird now. I just don't see how someone of Pawn's caliber looks at the Spiny flip and concludes "janitored."

Since if [who advances to the next round is] player controlled we can probably divine information based on who was left behind and who kept going, at least at this stage of the game. The first drop was too large to really pin down, while going from 15 to this is fairly manageable in terms of intent reading.

This is a good thought, but I have seen absolutely no followup from Pawn on it since he made it. Instead he's hared off on nightkill analysis.

{Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

This is post #42.

from the people here my immediate top 3 are {colin/dom/jack}

the lack of a nova flip is a real bitch

This is post #33.

I was making no secret of my Iaafr read, and of course Pawn is going to put me in the top bracket if he's trying to pocket me. I accepted this as a mindmeld then, but now it's giving me flashbacks to Geo and RedDevil in the MU finals.

{Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

I endorse this list in its entirety

except sprit is not fluid he's solidly in the middle group

Is this due to his emotional outburst around EOD? Trying to figure out where you're getting the confidence for the placement there.

I was able to get Pawn to reverse on this, but then he flopped back into reading Sprityo as scum later in the day.

That kind of flip-flop says he really does want Sprityo lynched, which feels towny to me... but it could also be Pawn knowing that he has to ML Sprityo to save a partner or win the final 5. This pushes me towards it being Pawn/Colin or Pawn/Dom if Pawn is scum.

We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

... is it common for janitors to be able to work on lynches? I don't get where you're getting this "janitor" idea from.

Yeah. Janitors pretty commonly work on lynches, otherwise their utility would be severely hampered. Clearing info from cops + gunsmiths are nice and all, but lynches are where the actual main use of the ability lies imo.

And I thought it was a guaranteed janitor since I saw it was boo, but was too busy finishing up my service learning for the day to look at the actual text closely and see that it strongly hinted mason before it was deleted. So I just saw redacted and kinda auto assumed janitor throughout the night since I believe it was one of the listed possible roles at the beginning and it fits with the info removal.

... Now that I consider this again, the #1 point of janitoring a lynch would be to destroy the alignment information from the flip. That information was intact in Spiny's flip. This really feels like Pawn trying to cover for a scumslip.

Like, the most potentially sus thing that I could see would be how you, ES, and myself all have the same bottom 3 with the order being ES, myself, and then you, with the argument that this is either two scum buddying a townie or a scum player faking a read list to consenus players.

But even then I wouldn't have them down there if I didn't consider them the most sus players in the game right now, so while that thought process could technically have merit, it's not one worth discussing as of right now.

I could be reading in too much here, but my hindbrain is screaming that this hedge is more setup for a flip on me or rabbit. The "a scum player faking a read list to consensus players" theory also leaps out at me now.

Would Pawn be that brazen? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh maybe. He does like to post little "injokes" when he's scum: the trouble is he does it when he's town as well. I'm going to set this aside as NAI for now, but I'd like others to put eyeballs on it and express their own opinions.

Pawn, you seem to have an affinity for iaafr. Can you elaborate?

An affinity in terms of having a read that I believe is correct or personality + style?

You seem to like what he's doing. Any outside commentary from someone I even remotely trust would be coveted.

For the most part since early D1 I've honestly found him to be largely acting in a town manner and I generally like the direction that he has pushed in terms of reads. And yes, he did the unvote rather than vote but that doesn't change that he's been fairly solid everywhere else this game.

Especially when you consider the fact that the fact that he removed the 112 vote still helped with Drago and is something that he had to have known would be scummy looking as either alignment due to timing. And full disclosure that is the type of play I have done before, and while it's risky it is something that can work in terms of trying to guarantee a life extension. So I can see the thought process and the weird half measure doesn't feel like scum in that instance, since he would have committed to a hard stance and not ended it on the no lynch.

And while I think iaafr is overreacting in terms of annoyance from your questions I can see how his frustration comes from the setup and is being exacerbated, where the way he is reacting isn't necessarily productive, but feels like town iaafr from what I've observed in other games and spec.

This is a good post. It explains why he's reading Iaafr as town despite the unvote, engages with Epi's concerns, but still comes away with a firm opinion on Iaafr. I don't like the "Iaafr is overreacting" read when he said not five minutes ago that Epi was over-pressuring Iaafr, but I'm still chalking up townpoints to Pawn here.

Alright, @Epignosis and @iaafr can you both leave the thread for 30 minutes to an hour? So both of you can cool off and stop sniping and we can try to make the thread productive again once you return.

This looks good in that context. I believe that Pawn thinks this is a T/T fight and he's trying to get the two to disengage. I don't like how he's been trending downwards on Epi later based apparently entirely on my reasoning regarding the Iaafr pressure. I'm used to Pawn having a very independent train of thought from my own, and it's really starting to feel like he's just sheeping me there, especially given that he was apparently still strongly reading Epi town at this point.

1. It means she didn't really make an impact and I forgot she was in the game.
2. It's called skimming since I don't have time to look and only seeing redacteds. With by the time I look back it's been deleted for a time.
3. Since bluntly there isn't enough we can glean from the other players. We don't know the alignments of those left on the second level, who are the scum and who are the town. We are missing too much of the piece of the puzzle to actually figure this out when I looked at it, so I decided it was primarily a waste of time that I couldn't afford.
4 + 5. Iaafr had already been in my top bracket for awhile in D2, you as well. Same with the MR + Dom placements. Again, there wasn't much wiggle room for the 4 remaining in terms of where they could be placed.
6. It's not even that I want him dead necessarily, remember that I don't place anywhere near as high of a value on emotion that you do. So at best I consider that a small bump rather than a major showing of proof. At which point he's slowly dropped to bottom 3 out of necessity, where I have explicitly and repeatedly called out as just filling a slot.
7. Again, you overestimate how much I actually read that flip.
8. I'm being honest about it since while I see the underlying reasons, it still does freak me out how much the reads of us 3 and to an extent MR have aligned this game. So I have had the thought in my head of you and/or iaafr pocketing me or just the other 2 within the group. It's pure tinfoil with the other options, but the thought still crossed my mind.
9. Epi was overpressuring but it doesn't mean iaafr was free of fault in how he acted. Like it or not, deciding to all caps post and explicitly troll in response to Epi's questions, which is something that I do consider an overreaction and not something that should have been done.
10. No? Epi had been solidly center tier since we hit the second layer. That's a very large difference from a top tier read. And a large part of it was frankly how so many people in the first and second layer had been acting more blatantly scummy than him. As we moved onto here there's just been less cover for him and my view has just slowly disintegrated. And will post why in a bit, right now going through the thread to finish catching up and then I will touch this one.

[Evenstar]

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

No, I'm saying that it fits with iaafr's stated goal of survival, which is a towny motivation and one I believe in since I would do and have done similar plays. I do not think they would catch him on one wagon, but it fits with his stated motivations and actions better than most of the other potential powers and so it fits as the one he has and is tied with a naturally towny motivation.

So what you're saying is that you believe he might have had that thought process? Yeah, that checks out, I made the mistake myself when I was considering Iaafr so it's not surprising that he might've done it as well.

Talk me through Epi again. I feel like #909 could be town-motivated: I was upending my reads earlier today trying to find a better PoE, and you yourself agreed that the current PoE felt bad and changed some of your reads in response to the shifts in mine... but then you defended trying to keep the status quo and said it was good for town? It feels like you agreed with me to placate me and then defended against Epi because you saw it as an attack on your position as "widely townread."

makes a seesaw motion with her hands

... I think that the balance of the facts says you and Epi are not on the same scumteam. So I can at least not worry about that. Is Epi town...? I feel like they might be town, and Dom might be scum riding shotgun on their reads. But then there's their very intermittent existence both days, and their bad push on Iaafr... And #909 does have the characteristics of a drive-by.

I really feel like you and Epi are W/T now. Help me find the scum.

[Jackofhearts2005]

These back and forth walls from Pawn and Eva just make my eyes glaze over.

[Pawn Lelouch]

Pawn's post this phase are intent on maintaining the status quo.

I am catching up but this kind of exactly explains my earlier unease tangibly. Pawn is posting and helpful and stuff but it just feels too careful almost.

Welcome to my playstyle, where I write and rewrite posts multiple times to give off a certain image and eliminate telling signs toward my alignment. Except it tends to make me look extremely careful and calculated, which they are tbf. Just that it's a thing I do as either alignment due to my scummy mindset as so is NAI.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Maybe all the Syndicate players are just mafia.

[Jackofhearts2005]

These back and forth walls from Pawn and Eva just make my eyes glaze over.

Some of this shit is super unimportant like “Why did you forget Michelle is in the game?”

FamilyGuywtfc.gif

It all boils down to Eva hissing at Pawn and Pawn being like “What you’re failing to take into consideration is that irl, I am a wolf.”

Pawn, convince me your thoughts are independent and not sheeped from other players. Give me spicy stuff.

[Pawn Lelouch]

I looked at Pawn's read of Colin and saw that it moved up to neutral and got all sus about it, but it turned out to be a total nothingburger. It's pretty clear he got forced into the middle by Pawn's degrading read of Epignosis, which he has sufficiently explained even if do I think NKA is generally a bad plan.

I still want Pawn to explain why his mechanical play is sucking so badly right now though. I'm used to him being the one to call me out on things like my doublevoter fuckup, rather than smiling and nodding and going 'that's nice dear.' The "15 players" and "it was a janitor" reads are also deeply wtf, along with the fact that he takes his NKA, says "this kill points at Eva", and then turns 90 degrees to slam Epi for it rather than me. Either he's taking the idea that I'm mechanically confirmed far too seriously, or he's deliberately trying to avoid my ire. Either one is not a great look.

Double voter is not something that directly helps iaafr and it doesn't need to be frankly. Indirectly it fits perfectly with his stated intention of survival above all for EOD 1 and so it isn't a mechanical lock but frankly it points more towards a town look in my mind so I'm perfectly willing to accept it. What can I say, it feeds into my biases this game.

15 players is me forgetting Michelle, which I feel bad about and probably need MR and myself to apologize to her later over it. I'll cop to the janitor one. That was a fuckup of me not reading enough in depth when I had the chance to.

And for the NK? Lol no about you being mech clear or anything, Nook was scum reading us both as his main 2 scum reads. So this isn't a case of would you go directly or not for him solo reading you, this is a case of would you directly kill Nook when he was also scum reading me and could use me to try and change his thought processes or fight him in thread?

And the answer to that is no, especially when coupled with my preexisting town core read (that exists from non mech clear). So I don't believe either of us did it. At which point it gets back to divining the intent of the kill and who I think would be able to make that level of kill thought process out of my potential scum reads. And I keep getting back to Epi or Radish as the two most likely in terms of playstyle, and with the levels of shared reads I think Radish as scum would have preferred to NK one of us and keep the reads going strong to ride, rather than throwing shade. So just in terms of gamestate Epi just feels the most likely.

[Pawn Lelouch]

As for "not a bussy scum" - while that's inherently a deeply wine-y argument, I do acknowledge that's your meta and that makes it pretty unlikely you're with Epi or Dom.

I still would like you to go through your reasoning on Epi and Iaafr again slowly. Yes, I know you've explained both your Rabbit and Epi reads; please do so again in a broader context. I want to see how you get where you are.

god I hate our meta sometimes

Yes, it's totally a wine argument but it's also one where I've discussed my meta heavily in PMs outside of this game so it felt useful to state for the state of accuracy.

Will try to do so in depth enough, as is it's nearly 11 (haven't eaten yet) and I need to be on the other side of NOLA by 12:30 to make the mock Jury trial for my Courts and Politics class. Where we aren't allowed to have electronics on and I am unsure how long it is supposed to take.

And same. Since again, alternate between borderline masons and at each other's throats is still way too accurate of a descriptor.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What if Nanook was a wolf and the wolves killed him to throw us off their trail?


https://inception.davepedu.com/inception.mp3

[Pawn Lelouch]

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

No, I'm saying that it fits with iaafr's stated goal of survival, which is a towny motivation and one I believe in since I would do and have done similar plays. I do not think they would catch him on one wagon, but it fits with his stated motivations and actions better than most of the other potential powers and so it fits as the one he has and is tied with a naturally towny motivation.

So what you're saying is that you believe he might have had that thought process? Yeah, that checks out, I made the mistake myself when I was considering Iaafr so it's not surprising that he might've done it as well.

Talk me through Epi again. I feel like #909 could be town-motivated: I was upending my reads earlier today trying to find a better PoE, and you yourself agreed that the current PoE felt bad and changed some of your reads in response to the shifts in mine... but then you defended trying to keep the status quo and said it was good for town? It feels like you agreed with me to placate me and then defended against Epi because you saw it as an attack on your position as "widely townread."

makes a seesaw motion with her hands

... I think that the balance of the facts says you and Epi are not on the same scumteam. So I can at least not worry about that. Is Epi town...? I feel like they might be town, and Dom might be scum riding shotgun on their reads. But then there's their very intermittent existence both days, and their bad push on Iaafr... And #909 does have the characteristics of a drive-by.

I really feel like you and Epi are W/T now. Help me find the scum.

No, I said the POE felt easy, almost too easy. Doesn't mean I felt it was really wrong. And again, 5 locked players. Epi hadn't shifted down yet due to me not fully considering the Nook kill implications so Colin hadn't shifted up yet either, and Jack and Sprit were already stated as floaty. Yes, you got yours out first but so many of the 4 are just kind of there or murky on proper placements at the time (3/4). So the actual POE that I posted was largely the same as D2's EOD.

So the actual changes in my readlist hadn't exactly been revolutionary large. It's largely a case of you getting your reads out first and me being labeled as a copier in this case, unfortunately for me.

[Pawn Lelouch]

These back and forth walls from Pawn and Eva just make my eyes glaze over.

Some of this shit is super unimportant like “Why did you forget Michelle is in the game?”

FamilyGuywtfc.gif

It all boils down to Eva hissing at Pawn and Pawn being like “What you’re failing to take into consideration is that irl, I am a wolf.”

Pawn, convince me your thoughts are independent and not sheeped from other players. Give me spicy stuff.

Awoo?

Well the NKA analysis on Epi is probably spicy for most players. Outside of that, my spicy bit is probably being willing to call Radishes my 4th townie. Other than that I don't have much spicy stuff that would actually be real.

[Pawn Lelouch]

What if Nanook was a wolf and the wolves killed him to throw us off their trail?


https://inception.davepedu.com/inception.mp3

BWWWWOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGG

[Pawn Lelouch]

I still would like you to go through your reasoning on Epi and Iaafr again slowly. Yes, I know you've explained both your Rabbit and Epi reads; please do so again in a broader context. I want to see how you get where you are.

Okay, here's iaafr first. And yes, I know he's the one people care about less but frankly he's easier and faster for me to do, even with how much larger the length of his ISO is.

So first I'm just going to reiterate one of my previous posts

```For the most part since early D1 I've honestly found him to be largely acting in a town manner and I generally like the direction that he has pushed in terms of reads. And yes, he did the unvote rather than vote but that doesn't change that he's been fairly solid everywhere else this game.

Especially when you consider the fact that the fact that he removed the 112 vote still helped with Drago and is something that he had to have known would be scummy looking as either alignment due to timing. And full disclosure that is the type of play I have done before, and while it's risky it is something that can work in terms of trying to guarantee a life extension. So I can see the thought process and the weird half measure doesn't feel like scum in that instance, since he would have committed to a hard stance and not ended it on the no lynch.

And while I think iaafr is overreacting in terms of annoyance from your questions I can see how his frustration comes from the setup and is being exacerbated, where the way he is reacting isn't necessarily productive, but feels like town iaafr from what I've observed in other games and spec. ``` (Yes, I know this isn't discord but it's easier for me)

To clarify, for the annoyance thing I mentioned both Epi and iaafr were in the wrong on some level. Epi with regards to how he pressured and iaafr in regards to swapping to all caps posting and explicitly trolling. Still though, the actual reasoning behind why was a clear source of frustration, and while frustration itself is never AI on it's own, the reasoning behind the frustration and how they express it is. And I'm seeing pure bafflement being an undercurrent throughout all of this time period, where he can't imagine why he isn't town to people. Scum don't have that type of self confidence, at least not if they aren't completely confident publicly.

And iaafr has been anything but that, with him constantly flipping and shifting reads, which yes, is iaafr in a nutshell, but even so I'm seeing genuine concern within his thought processes. Those are real thoughts and emotions, I just don't see him being able to fake those.

Still fully agreeing on the half measure section.

And when it comes down to it I think we're reading most of the game in a similar manner and I'm getting reads that match with my own fairly well. And yes, people can try and claim I don't have independent thought, to which I call wrong, but it doesn't change the fact that if my reads are aligning so much with ES/iaafr/MR there is a reason for it. Yes, to an extent I do think part is the clique bit MR mentioned, but there's been so many thought processes that I just am finding myself agreeing with, and I honestly can't see him as scum within the context of this game state.