[END] The Syndicate's 2013 Game of Champions

#4251

Almighty Zodac! Have mercy on my soul!!!

#4252

Mongoose wrote:
Hedgeowl wrote: Something clicked for me and I now understand why you placed trust in Mongoose, Bea. Also, if you are right, she will not be lynched. That will change the next lynch cycle for me a lot I think, so will be interested to see how this night goes.
.

There's absolutely nothing protecting me from a lynch, unfortunately. I know it must seem that I act nonsensically to you all at times, but when has that ever been an indicator of my alignment?

That was confusing. I actually meant because I think the tie is between Boom and Elo, not because of your role.

#4253

Hedgeowl wrote:
bea wrote:
Hedgeowl wrote:Bea - cause I am sleep deprived and it makes me sometimes. I was thinking becuase it shows up in the night post. doh!

Zodac - we leave it in your capable hands. Please choose wisely.
fair enough hedgey - I'm near hitting the point where makes me :derp:y.

I hope zodac picks well. His track record is pretty good tbh.

Also- as a side note - since in the red room things are "opposite rules" and "your role in the red room is not related to the role you had in the other game" Anyone else think that the MP role = zodac?
I'm mildly jelly that wine isn't my reason these days. my son turned 10 months yesterday! It's amazing and scary at the same time. 10 months of sleep I will never get back.

Something clicked for me and I now understand why you placed trust in Mongoose, Bea. Also, if you are right, she will not be lynched. That will change the next lynch cycle for me a lot I think, so will be interested to see how this night goes.

Interesting point about MP = Zodac. I have no idea how closely he is tying these two games together. I keep feeling like we are in for a "surprise" Jk this game doesn't matter, or does it...

Timmer - that analysis was pretty spectacular actually.
I'm admitedly a bit on pins and needles to see how tonight ends. I would not want to be in zodac's shoes right now.

10 months! Wow. You are a trooper lady! I assume if you are not having wine you're doing the whole natural feeding thing? How long do you have to go till you're allowed grown-up things again? Also - the first time you get a sitter are you going to go cray-cray or catch up on sleep? You poor thing.

#4254

bea wrote:
10 months! Wow. You are a trooper lady! I assume if you are not having wine you're doing the whole natural feeding thing? How long do you have to go till you're allowed grown-up things again? Also - the first time you get a sitter are you going to go cray-cray or catch up on sleep? You poor thing.

If she is breastfeeding (oh yes, I said the word boys

) then she can technically still have grown-up drinks as long as she waits a couple hours for the alcohol to leave her system. I have been pregnant or breastfeeding for five years straight now and Ephraim STILL loves the boobies!

#4255

ebwop: that should have been in off topic green..sorry.

#4256

[quote="Elohcin"][quote="bea"]

10 months! Wow. You are a trooper lady! I assume if you are not having wine you're doing the whole natural feeding thing? How long do you have to go till you're allowed grown-up things again? Also - the first time you get a sitter are you going to go cray-cray or catch up on sleep? You poor thing.

[/quote]

If she is breastfeeding (oh yes, I said the word boys

) then she can technically still have grown-up drinks as long as she waits a couple hours for the alcohol to leave her system. I have been pregnant or breastfeeding for five years straight now and Ephraim STILL loves the boobies![/quote]

Since the red room has been discussing boobs of the Evangeline variety I think we can discuss what they're made for in fact.

Elo, more power to you with 3, just one and were wiped all the time. I did in have a glass of wine this week when out with friends and hubs was home. However, I cant blame the amount I drink currently on making me

One day soon...

We do have my in-laws sit sometimes which is great, so no full evenings out yet since he doesnt sleep through the night yet

yay for baby acid reflux.

I dont have any on topic thoughts it turns out.

#4257

Hedgeowl wrote:[quote="Elohcin"][quote="bea"]

10 months! Wow. You are a trooper lady! I assume if you are not having wine you're doing the whole natural feeding thing? How long do you have to go till you're allowed grown-up things again? Also - the first time you get a sitter are you going to go cray-cray or catch up on sleep? You poor thing.

If she is breastfeeding (oh yes, I said the word boys

) then she can technically still have grown-up drinks as long as she waits a couple hours for the alcohol to leave her system. I have been pregnant or breastfeeding for five years straight now and Ephraim STILL loves the boobies![/quote]

Since the red room has been discussing boobs of the Evangeline variety I think we can discuss what they're made for in fact.

Elo, more power to you with 3([/quote]

My wife does not have three boobs. That's why she did not receive a callback from the Total Recall people.

#4258

So it's been a hell of a day. My flight got cancelled, and I was on hold for three hours with US Airways earlier today and still never got a hold of anyone. Tried again tonight. They won't even put me on hold now.

Nonetheless, I rearranged it with the university and also with my work to get a new date -- next Friday, the 21st. And I just booked a new flight. Hopefully I can get a refund for my first flight, though, and I'm definitely going to keep trying to call them over and over.

So what does that mean for you guys? It means I will be here tonight and tomorrow night to address questions, take PMs, and even end the night early if necessary.

#4259

As nice as it is to get an earlier end to the night, that utterly blows. Hopefully you can at least get a refund, Alex!

#4260

birdwithteeth11 wrote:As nice as it is to get an earlier end to the night, that utterly blows. Hopefully you can at least get a refund, Alex!

Yeah... between that and handling a crazy busy season day, it was certainly the type of day I do not want to happen again in the near future. Or ever. Lol.

I'll get a hold of them eventually, and I certainly will give it my all. I better get my damn money. I probably will. It's just still a bothersome situation.

BUT at least I was able to reschedule the interview/visit. That is certainly a very good thing.

#4261

MovingPictures07 wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:As nice as it is to get an earlier end to the night, that utterly blows. Hopefully you can at least get a refund, Alex!
Yeah... between that and handling a crazy busy season day, it was certainly the type of day I do not want to happen again in the near future. Or ever. Lol.

I'll get a hold of them eventually, and I certainly will give it my all. I better get my damn money. I probably will. It's just still a bothersome situation.

BUT at least I was able to reschedule the interview/visit. That is certainly a very good thing.

Indeed. Although given the circumstances, they almost had to work with you to reschedule your visit.

Could be worse though. You could be dead lol

#4262

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:As nice as it is to get an earlier end to the night, that utterly blows. Hopefully you can at least get a refund, Alex!
Yeah... between that and handling a crazy busy season day, it was certainly the type of day I do not want to happen again in the near future. Or ever. Lol.

I'll get a hold of them eventually, and I certainly will give it my all. I better get my damn money. I probably will. It's just still a bothersome situation.

BUT at least I was able to reschedule the interview/visit. That is certainly a very good thing.
Indeed. Although given the circumstances, they almost had to work with you to reschedule your visit.

Could be worse though. You could be dead lol

Indeed, and that would suck, I would NOT want to be in that stinky Red Room.

#4263

the girlfriend does not appreciate jokes about you dying.

#4264

are the airlines somehow giving our host the break he needs?

also - that story sucks and also - I'm glad you are not deaded socky. I am firm with the GF - we do not like jokes where you dieded.

but also - that red room IS pretty stinky

and also - alex, I really really hope you're able to get your money back.

Also - does anyone else notice how this whole time has been ot - and somehow sock managed to turn our completely nice breastfeeding convo to something else

really - just joking. I'm glad you are ok Alex. I hope all your wonky works out. Remember what I said about the pause button.

#4265

timmer wrote:Okay, so let's break this vote down (and I go on the assumption that the baddies have indeed merged into one):

Boomslang
3 - Mongoose (8), bea (11), Elohcin (12) 23%

Elohcin
5 - Boomslang (2), Nevinera (4), S~V~S (6), Spacedaisy (7), Flyin' High (9) 38%

Mongoose
3 - Lizzy (3), timmer (10), Hedgeowl (13) 23%

Proposition 1: Elohcin is bad

In this scenario, I assume Boomslang is not a baddie as he started the vote off on Elohcin. I also assume Nevin and SVS aren't bad, natch. I don't see Spacedaisy as a teamie as her vote seems too early for throwing in the towel. All other votes happened so close to the end that I assume that indeed no throwing of towels happened, so I doubt in this scenario that FH would be Eloh's teammate.

So to me, if Elohcin is bad, her teammates are more likely among the Boomslang voters. 1) Boomslang is clearly not on a team with Eloh. 2) Eloh had the option to vote against Mongoose but opted to vote WITH Mongoose against Boomslang. So I believe that if Elohcin is bad, the strongest likelihood is that Mongoose is as well, and Bea is either bad, or has been roped into trusting Mongoose.

So if Eloh is bad, I'm calling Mongoose as bad. It's obv not definite, but it's the strongest likelihood based on the day's vote.

Proposition 2: Boomslang is bad.

If Boomslang is bad, his early vote for Elohcin makes sense. Considering how scattered we all were today, I'm sure the baddies were quite agitated at the lack of votes. Baddies hate leading the action, but they hate waiting too long for push the group as well, so I'd say in tho scenario, Boomslang's vote makes sense as he was likely starting to sweat.

If he has teammates, in this scenario, Space daisy and FH would make sense. Once Elohcin was at 3 votes and Mongoose was at 1, it would seem like a good time to get on board the Eloh train. The more votes someone takes on, and the more someone is destined to be lynched, the less likely it is for the next civ voters to mount a defence and vote someone else (in my experience, anyway), so at LEAST one of SD or FH would likely be a Boomslang teammate. In this scenario, I see Mongoose and Bea as likely both civ. And Hedgeowl ends up as a possible teammate, as hedge's vote came right in the dying seconds, and baddie teammates may have felt they had the lynch safe so why not throw a vote on a third party?

So if Boomslang is bad, I'm calling at least two out of SD, FH and Hedge as his teammates.

Proposition 3: Mongoose is bad (but Elohcin is good, otherwise see Prop #1)

When Goose voted, the vote was 4 votes Elohcin, 1 vote Mongoose. If the baddies felt that the lynch was going Eloh's way, Goose may have felt safe making this play. I could see any of Boomslang, SD or FH as teammates, especially the latter two. In this scenario again, Bea could be a teammate but could also be a misguidedly trusting civ. And again, Hedge could be a teammates who felt safe burying a vote on Goose.

In short, things are clear as mud.

I strongly feel that if Elohcin bad, then Mongoose is as well, and Bea becomes not very trustworthy, but I feel better about SD, FH and Hedgeowl.
If Boomslang or Mongoose are bad, but Elohcin isn't, then FH, SD and Hedgeowl look more bad.

Prop 4: None of the three are bad.

This is very unlikely, but if somehow all three of Elohcin, Mongoose and Boomslang are civ, then the only really suspect votes are back to SD, FH and Hedgeowl. In this scenario, Hedgeowl becomes more likely than in the other scenarios, as a buried last-second vote becomes way more likely to be that of a baddie.

What do you guys think? I don't want to make Zodac's head spin, but we've got to analyze this!

As much as I love our off topic times - and I know we're all waiting on zodac's decision, I still think - maybe some more indepth comment might be made on this.

Prop 4 is very interesting.

#4266

also- timmer - you made all this - which theory do you think is most valid?

#4267

*waves* hi svs.

have you had time to think? Do you have questions for me?

#4268

bea wrote:also- timmer - you made all this - which theory do you think is most valid?

I think they're all predicated on some assumptions we don't know are true.

#4269

yes - but since he took all the time to make all of them, I'm curious as to which one he thinks is most likely.

you know for shits and giggles at the *very* least.

#4270

In any event. I was able to read and I know nev is civ.

I know the confirmed ones are civ.

I'm curious though that the confirmed ones and lizzy seem to be at odds at times? why is that?

I love all of you - just don't always understand when mom and dad fight.

#4271

The only thing I don't like about TImmer's scenarios is that he has me as likely bad in 3 of the 4. I am not bad. *pouts*

#4272

Flyin' High wrote:The only thing I don't like about TImmer's scenarios is that he has me as likely bad in 3 of the 4. I am not bad. *pouts*

why is he wrong in that analysis then?

#4273

Flyin' High wrote:The only thing I don't like about TImmer's scenarios is that he has me as likely bad in 3 of the 4. I am not bad. *pouts*

I find that interesting as well especially since he's one of those who has been paying attention. I trust both of you though.

And Bea, with the confirmed civs, it's because of the Martell role. I'm so curious to see who kills tonight, because there is this possibility that the Manipulators are kaput. No Moriarty reveal the previous nigh: this can mean that 1. he abstained/was not around; 2. but if he was not around he had Martell to do that for him - that didn't happen; 3. one of them is dead; 4. they're all dead.

#4274

bea wrote:
Flyin' High wrote:The only thing I don't like about TImmer's scenarios is that he has me as likely bad in 3 of the 4. I am not bad. *pouts*

why is he wrong in that analysis then?

I didn't say the analysis was wrong. I was joking about disliking that he has me as potentially bad in the majority of the scenarios. But seriously, of all people I am not going to slam an analysis like that. I love analyses and it's a good one. I just don't like that he keeps assuming I'm bad (something he felt before he did that analysis).

I personally think Elohcin makes a ton of sense as Cohen because it would explain her OTT reaction to taking votes yesterday and playing so utterly under the radar all game long. Timmer didn't take that possibility into account with his analysis.

Scenario 2 looks plausible to me. If Boomslang is bad then based on votes Timmer thinks either I or SD are a teammate of his. Well, I've been suspicious of SD for quite some time so that fits in my mind. I didn't have anything in the thread connecting them other than they both suspected Epignosis this game. However, at the end of his Proposition #2 he says that if Boomslang is bad, then at least 2 out of me, SD, and Hedge are his teammates. But what team has 3 members left on it? Perhaps the Manipulators, except based on MP's Night 9 post I think Rumple had already died (he wasn't mentioned among the list of baddies playing poker). So that would leave at most Moriarty and Catherine. And we are fairly sure Pirahna Plant is dead (not mentioned in Poker Scene, haven't scene a PP kill, probably was Epig) leaving only Creeper and Fetus on Team 2. So unless the teams have merged (or a recruit has happened that we don't know about?), there isn't a mafia team with 3 members alive on it.

Scenario 3 also looks plausible. I think Mongoose might very well be bad based on multiple different pieces of evidence brought against her in the thread. And again SD, Boom, or Hedgeowl are implicated. (I am too, but I know I'm not bad).

Scenario 4 I don't agree with. Because he says if that's the case then the only remaining suspects are SD, me, and Hedgeowl. I think there are more than two mafia left alive (by my estimation it's 3 minimum) and again, I know I'm not bad.

Best case scenario, Rumpel's lack of appearance in Night 9 post means he's dead, Devin was Martell, not Lucy and Moriarty has died. That would mean Manipulators are no more. And if juliets was Creeper, then only one baddie remains, Fetus. I'd love to believe that, but I don't think we're that lucky.

Worst case, Martell, Moriarty, Creeper, and Fetus are alive. Meaning we're dealing with 4 more mafia. This seems more plausible to me, but I'm very hopeful that one or both of the Manipulators have died.

So I guess of Timmer's scenarios, Scenario 3 makes the most sense to me.

I was not trying to save anyone with my vote. I held my vote because I honestly couldn't decide who I suspected the most as there weren't really strong cases against anyone. Just little pings and gut feelings. I went with Elohcin because I felt like of all my suspects, she'd played the least civvie-like game. And as I've stated, I feel that her response easily fits with the frustration of an indy getting this close to the end without taking hardly any votes, then suddenly receiving a ton which, if she is Cohen, will make her win condition incredibly difficult now.

#4275

Bea, a lot of my problem in judging which prop is most likely is not knowing if the baddies merged or not, combined with the fact that we had so many players yanked into the red room etc. in the last little while.

MP' post certainly hinted at a merger of the remaining baddies and Cohen, but what if that was an ingenious move by the Exaggerator, who can mess with the posts from the grave? It's important because if the teams didn't merge, a lot of my thoughts on that last lynch become weaker. If, for instance, any one of those players is bad but only has one teammate, or even none, studying the voting patterns actually doesn't help. And with DH and BF gone with no role reveal, it's even muckier. I had thought DH was Zodac for a long time, but with that idea punted, could he have been bad? Maybe, I can't rule it out, and BF was a complete mystery. What if because of that mass red room yank, we're down to just one baddie?

This has been a VERY tough game to use traditional mafia-hunting on. So many of the early days were disrupted by curses, or by polls that MP kept changing around on the fly, etc. and of course there is the presence of Zodac who means well but by his very presence acts as a disruptor to studying lynches. And now with the red room, gah, I just don't know. I had hoped a bonus 24 hours would help Zodac to see things clearer, but I'm not sure I'd want to be in his shoes, really.

#4276

To try to actually answer your question, Bea, I'd say that my best option is to try to decide which prop gives us the best information for the rest of the game. Basically, I think we all realize that no one is really sure of anything right now in terms of baddies, so I'd love it if anyone could stand up and say that they are for sure, 100% positive that player X is bad, I would follow a well-laid out case to the grave at this point. So I look at it as, where do we get the best information?

If Zodac picks Elohcin and Elohcin is bad, it would lead me to Mongoose next, and then you third as I'm feeling pretty good about you, but your connection to Mongoose I'm less sure of.

If Zodac picks Elohcin and Elohcin is good, it would lead me to SD, FH and Hedgeowl, with you and Mongoose looking better.

I'm not sure who is tied with Eloh, so let's look at both:

If Zodac picks Boomslang and he is bad, it makes SD, FH and maybe Hedgeowl look bad.
If Zodac picks Boomslang and he is good, it is hard to read because I could see Eloh as good or bad, and there are no good conclusions here.

If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is bad, I would then be concerned about you, Bea,and so I would have to think that Elohcin and you looked bad, but also SD/FH could as well, this one is very iffy to read.
If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is good, I would stop feeling any concern about you, and would lean more towards SD/FH again.

And of course, this is all based on a simple, standard read of a single lynch vote. There could be no teammates left!!

#4277

In the end, I feel that the most solid information would come from an Elohcin lynch, one way or the other.

A lynch of Boomslang would point the way if he was BAD, and a Mongoose lynch would point the way if he was GOOD, but an Elohcin lynch suggests a path to take whether she is good OR bad. This assumes that any revealed baddie still has teammates, etc. but that's how I feel.

#4278

timmer wrote:What if because of that mass red room yank, we're down to just one baddie?

That'd be sweet!

#4279

timmer wrote:
If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is bad, I would then be concerned about you, Bea,and so I would have to think that Elohcin and you looked bad, but also SD/FH could as well, this one is very iffy to read.
If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is good, I would stop feeling any concern about you, and would lean more towards SD/FH again.

Common misconceptions about Mongoose:

* That I'm a dude

* That I'm often bad when I'm not

#4280

timmer wrote:In the end, I feel that the most solid information would come from an Elohcin lynch, one way or the other.

A lynch of Boomslang would point the way if he was BAD, and a Mongoose lynch would point the way if he was GOOD, but an Elohcin lynch suggests a path to take whether she is good OR bad. This assumes that any revealed baddie still has teammates, etc. but that's how I feel.

So you are okay with lynching a civ for information?

#4281

Elohcin wrote:
timmer wrote:In the end, I feel that the most solid information would come from an Elohcin lynch, one way or the other.

A lynch of Boomslang would point the way if he was BAD, and a Mongoose lynch would point the way if he was GOOD, but an Elohcin lynch suggests a path to take whether she is good OR bad. This assumes that any revealed baddie still has teammates, etc. but that's how I feel.
So you are okay with lynching a civ for information?

I'm not sure of your affiliation

And sorry Goosey, one day I'll remember that!

#4282

[center]Night 11: Creepy Creeper[/center]
The creepy creeper creeped up behind timmer and killed him! Poor timmer.

Boomslang and Elohcin faced each other. The mob had chosen both of them as the most likely baddies... but couldn't make up their minds! So Zodac had to interfere. "Balance... must maintain balance..."

Boomslang was chosen.

The mob brought their torches and pitchforks, burning and stabbing the poor man.

Somehow, he survived.

timmer has been killed by Creeper.
No one has been lynched.

It is now Day 12. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.[/b]

#4283

Ugh. So is it safe to assume Boomslang is fetus?

#4284

Or I suppose he could be Cohen?

#4285

Some weird shit went down last night and I am thoroughly confused

#4286

Woot!

#4287

Woot that I'm alive. RIPIYWG Timmer.

#4288

I think Cohen is more likely.
I suppose it's also possible macguyver is still out there though.

#4289

Aww, RIP Timmer!

I am almost positive you were a Trusty civ. Daisy, I think it very likely Boom is fetus or Cohen given his survival.

Mongoose - I am remembering our first game together. In the words of Simon, are you bad?

I am not surprised that the lynch was between Boom and Elo at all. I will have to go over Timmers analysis again and think carefully on my next vote. Don't think I will vote Booms again since BWT still has work to do. Surprised he wasn't the target actually.

Linki I keep forgetting about penny and macguyver. Seems unlikely they are both still alive since we have seen no civ ninja.

#4290

Hedgiebabe- I swear on the life of my fluffy diabetic cat that I'm not bad.

#4291

Shocking.

#4292

I don't think Fetus is very likely.

#4293

By the way, i know i said it before. I run a game show; prizes~

Earlier I used my thang to get quiet people to talk or before I was rezzed openly as HR, for fun. But now I only plan to give contests to those I trust if possible. So if you got one, don't be annoyed at me

#4294

RIP Timmer, pretty sure you were civvie based on everything that's happened.

So Creeper killed Timmer! That must mean Manipulators are no more! Or they merged and Catherine is still alive and with the Video Game baddies now?

As for Boomslang, are the only known ways to currently survive a lynch MacGyver, Fetus, or Cohen? If those are the only 3 possibilities, then I would feel fine for Boomslang today if we can't come to a better decision. I don't think he survived for civvie reasons (unless, S~V~S, are you saying Boomslang got a lynch survive prize from one of your contests?). I've read back through the roles and don't see any other possibilities.

#4295

Wouldn't Catherine have gotten moriartys kill if she were still in?

#4296

Nevinera wrote:Wouldn't Catherine have gotten moriartys kill if she were still in?

Yes, but if the teams got merged then I was assuming the kill would stay with Creeper. I don't think Catherine is alive, but I figured the possibility should at least be considered.

#4297

I"m okay with voting Boom. Because if he survived because he's McGuyver, it means Penny is still alive and the lynch won't occur, so it's not like we will lynch a civ for information.

#4298

The manipulators' kill moves around as the members die - that kill should exist until all four of those characters are dead.
The VGV kills are not like that - the members of that group have powers that expand if certain other members die, so that there should always be someone with a kill.

I don't see any reason to expect that if Martell 'joined' the VGV somehow, she would no longer have the power described under moriarty as passing to her - if any of those four characters are still alive, one of them ought to have that kill.

On the other hand, Creeper is supposed to kill on *even* nights, not odd nights. That makes me suspect that our double-day, while incrementing the visible 'number' of the night, may not have incremented the 'oddness' or 'evenness' of the night - that would make some sense, as it the power is described as 'adding a day', not 'removing a night'.

So we probably couldn't conclude anything about the Manipulators just from the lack of a kill from this last night.
On the other hand, they didn't kill anyone on Night 10 *either*, which means they probably were all dead before then :-D

linki Mongoose: That makes sense. But if he survives we still won't know who he is, because as cohen he'll still have an extra life left, and as MG he wouldn't die. We'd be faced with the same decision again. Add in that he has no other powers if he's cohen, and I don't think killing him is urgent.

#4299

I really don't think Boomslang survived for a civvie reason unless prizes were involved.

The only reason to continue focusing on Boomslang today is if there's a chance he's Fetus. As Cohen he's not a threat (except I suppose he will want to see the three people who voted for him lynched or NKed so he can meet his win condition).

But right now, I think it serves us better to figure out who Creeper or Fetus are.

As for teams merging and how powers work, I guess it depends on the host, but in my experience if teams merge, one role maintains the kill, it doesn't alternate between the killers from the original two teams. Granted, I don't think Catherine is alive, so it's probably a moot point, but I don't think we'd necessarily see a kill from the Manipulators if the teams merged. Also, in my experience when there are two days in a row, and thus a night is missed, the team that would have killed on that night is just out of luck. It's happened to me and it stinks, but I have never seen a host keep the original odd/even count separate from a double day or double night. That's too complicated.

#4300

Do you have any other explanation for why the creeper would be killing on an odd night?

If Big Daddy (Bouncer) dies, Creeper stops blocking every night, instead blocking every odd night, and tries to kill a player every even night. However, it has only a 60% success rate of killing its target.

I really think the whole 'merged teams' thing is really unlikely, and not worth considering in real analyses.
I don't know if it was the manipulators saying that or not, but it just doesn't make sense.

Who deserves to win?