The Polka Heist [GAME OVER]

[MacDougall]

Of course it could be Wilgy but I think he probs would have had some bigger flourishes if he was scum with teammates to enjoy and I feel like the pings I've gotten from Sloonei/DDL are rather unlikely to both be wrong. DDL particularly has just come across fake to me. Sloonei I partially just enjoy trolling but he's veered into questionable behavior territory enough times and is alive and that's a bother.

[MacDougall]

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

How am I this guy's teammate? I'm over here taking mild shots at him for days and he's writing Dostoevsky. Anyone who has played scum with me knows if I have a teammate engaging me like this I'd do... something to help the distancing at least.

Anyway nuff protesting.

I had a squiz at Sig. Don't love his ISO. Within a basic lens I'd say he's scum but also I'd rather assume it's someone having a red hot try like Sloo or Luffy.

I think Tony played like someone who had a more than inspirational ally. His tone was cheerful. If he was stuck with Wilgy, Sig or I (with Creature) he would have been more passive or negative in tone.

[MacDougall]

Okay reads from up to the lynch post

Dizzy and Quin are town as fuck.

Dizzy mostly for the creature thing, Quin for posts too. He's legit genuquin. Protect him.

Sloonei a little less since he was flopping around like Sloonei (while Dizzy and Quin pushed the idea if lynching Creature more strongly), but he still started the final push so I feel like he's town too. Also he does feel a bit more genuine than in the wire but that's hindsight speaking since he fooled me in that game. Sloonei will have to do more to earn my trust from now on. But he gets it for the time being.

Timmer is the member if the Day 1 Mutant Ninja Turtles who benefits the least for this Creature lynch imo. He kind of just went along after the fact. That said he leans a bit civ in post-based reading I guess. Could be wrong here.

Nobody else matters much here since they aren't turtles. Will talk about others later.

Everyone mentioned here except Sloonei is dead. Cool to know all the people DDL thought were uber town (plus someone else he waffled on) became scum kill choices.

[MacDougall]

Damn I tried not to make it too obvious that Quin was extremely civ but I guess that was obvious to the mafia too.

His previous post literally said "Dizzy and Quin are town as fuck". I presume someone called him names over this.

[MacDougall]

Timmer - Town. Hammered Creature and had a towny as fuck response to suspicion earlier on D1.
Sloonei - Town for lynching Creature. Felt town in interaction earlier on D1 and like he really evaluated my alignment.
Quin - Town for lynching Creature. Feels like he cares about the game.
Sig - Town read. Both his play early D1 and his passionate irritation that we all couldn't see Sloonei as scum before the flip was revealed reads town to me.

Wilgy - I don't find any reason to be very suspicious of Wilgy. Remember liking some of his posts, but don't remember why tbh.
Epi - I have a really stupid reason for thinking Epi might be town. But really a null read. Not much there.

DDL - Null. Don't know how much stock I should put in the derp about not knowing when actions are due to, since both scum and town could've missed that I guess. Nothing overly scummy.
LC - Null. Nothing he's done has stuck with me. If he's town there's an even stronger case for town reading the three on top of this list.

Dom - Null/squinting. Mostly felt salty after the Creature lynch. Not much there except tunneling me because gut.
Mac - Null/squinting. No content. Lame sheeping.

Tony - Scum. I don't buy the "I have no idea what's going on". Seems too much like trying to seem unaffected by the lynch. Feels like he's arguing with me more to show how his thoughts "makes sense" rather than him actually thinking I'm susp, cause I don't think he does. Don't let him use WIFOM as defense in the case I die in form of "Would I really kill ..."

Bimbo/Sorsha - Complete lurkers. Vig or lynch if not replaced.

Would be ballsy to put a teammate here but then again DDL has been powertowning and somehow Tony lived til Day 5 so how real is the read?

[MacDougall]

Wait that's Dyslexicon. I'm drunk. No wonder Dizzy died. But wait!

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Tony] aubergine

Good night.

I like tony tbh

TSP is mad at the Day 1 Mutant Ninja Turtles treating each other as confirmed.

Could be 2 things.

Rage from a civilian who hates it when other civilians get cocky about a hot potato result (a sentiment I've felt myself before)

or

Rage from a mafioso who just got screwed and is scared at the prospect of 4 confirmed civs on Day 1.

Pick one.

Dizzy didn't like the scum and DDL produced these amazing replies.

[MacDougall]

By the way, civilians lost that game.

The toxic environment created by the hot potato "winners" wasn't worth the trouble.

Uhm, I'm just challenging you on your thoughts about the lynch, dude. Like... I'm not being toxic? Wtf is this?

Dys is being extremely unpleasant about the "everyone confirmed town" thing and Sloon is being kind of annoying too.

There is also a witch hunt going on against people who do not agree you 3 are confirmed scum.

Luffy was mad the town core was good? Then two of them died and he pocketed Sloonei.

Yeah ok I'm just gonna stop here. Dudes scum. Figure it out. See you tomorrow.

[MacDougall]

Okay let’s push past the people (myself included) being dramatic part and move on.

There was talk last night about LC likely being town from results. Someone explain that to me. @Sloonei maybe?

I have slight town reads on a lot of people right now, which lends credence to DDL’s inactive scum theory. That said, I don’t think there’s any point to vote for Mac just to entice him to show up if we don’t intend to lynch him. It’s -EV to lynch any essentially inactive player, especially Mac who might show up and solve the game. In Fallout he had 2 posts and then day 1 he came in and called out both scum.

The irony in this post is glorious.

[MacDougall]

Btw Tony you played great. Powerwolfing in these circumstances. I'm surprised you were lynched looking back. I guess thrown under a bus.

[MacDougall]

After a read of Tony's ISO.

Sloonei is self resolving. He dies tonight or is bad.
Epi has major teammate equity with TSP and generally profiles. Probably on par with DDL.

Everyone else he spews town at points because he played the game with a straight bat. He forced cases on townies which means he probably had his teammate as town read most of the game.

That's a major indicator it's Epi because that's how he likes to play the game too and Epi and Sloonei are the only players alive from his original town list in his first reads list.

[MacDougall]

Sorry I've been inattentive. It's been a very busy time for me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Okay reads from up to the lynch post

Dizzy and Quin are town as fuck.

Dizzy mostly for the creature thing, Quin for posts too. He's legit genuquin. Protect him.

Sloonei a little less since he was flopping around like Sloonei (while Dizzy and Quin pushed the idea if lynching Creature more strongly), but he still started the final push so I feel like he's town too. Also he does feel a bit more genuine than in the wire but that's hindsight speaking since he fooled me in that game. Sloonei will have to do more to earn my trust from now on. But he gets it for the time being.

Timmer is the member if the Day 1 Mutant Ninja Turtles who benefits the least for this Creature lynch imo. He kind of just went along after the fact. That said he leans a bit civ in post-based reading I guess. Could be wrong here.

Nobody else matters much here since they aren't turtles. Will talk about others later.

Everyone mentioned here except Sloonei is dead. Cool to know all the people DDL thought were uber town (plus someone else he waffled on) became scum kill choices.

And again, you show that you are not reading this game on purpose.

That post was to discuss the town status of the 4 people who were on the Creature lynch. Which everyone and their dog agreed were confirmed town.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I still think Sloonei has teammate equity with Tony. Even DDL had them as compatible at one point. Nothing that happened here can't be explained as distancing/bussing.

I'd lynch DDL first. If the game isn't over and one of Sloonei/Epi is alive they die.

If Sloonei lives tonight he is an autolynch. Scum kill him if civ. My doubts aren't enough to modify this need. Even I wouldn't leave him alive tonight if I had the bullet.

It's like you are just that crazy guy we should ignore because you don't know what you are talking about.

Sloonei can't possibly be scum.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok maybe it's unfair from me to say you are not reading the game "on purpose". You should really be busy irl.

But the problem is that you are completely clueless and yet pretending you have the whole hame solved. And because of that your posts amount to just spam.

[Michelle]

TSP played so good this game, rereading I feel like I would hardly really suspect him. I am glad of the flip because his many posts have for sure links to the teammates. It's only up to us to interpret correct these.
I have a tab with a lot of quotes but I think this post deserves a proper look

Spoiler: show

Yeah, it's a good idea to make players not play the game

Phony indignation.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

There it is.

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Creature acted exactly the same way last game where he was civ.

Recency bias.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

There’s not much going on but I don’t think I have a take on this besides everyone is wrong.

please explain

Epi’s wrong cause it’s not recency bias cause Creature has a pattern of acting like that. DDL is wrong for thinking that Epi is overreacting for tossing an early vote on Creature. Creature is wrong for being obnoxious.

Explaining why everyone is wrong, I see he doesn't take any stance regarding AI. He shades Creature, his teammate, without calling him scum.
I will search to see if there is a pattern for this playstyle.

Now.. if one of your teammates is bussing another, do you point out he is wrong? The explanation about Epi being wrong doesn't look like for a partener and includes a subtile defense on Creature.
DDL's vote is wrong probably because Epi is civ and he isn't in fact overreacting with his vote?
I can't understand DDLs AI from this though, I can only speculate a logic of him being villager could exist, but is hard too explain and it would be worthy to explain it if TSP had a shorter ISO. Now I hope to find evidence in other posts

some TMI in this post about Epi? http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 23#p577423
And this post exists http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p577500 doesnt look bad for DDL.

[Michelle]

I have a MTG tournament to get to. Might be able to check in, but some thoughts on EOD:
Voting for DDL. That’s all on thoughts. I don’t mind a dizzy or LC Lynch, but dizzy has a high participation rate which is good for the game and I think I can read LC pretty well and I don’t have any real thoughts about him right now.

I think I am comfy rn with considering DDL being probably villager except distancing may exist, but in these 3 lynch options discussed by TSP herehe doesn't really care who is lynched and are looking good for both DDL and LC after we know Dizzy is villager.

Update I know what’s going on now. Sloonei and Dizzy are telling me that they’re lock town along with Quin and Timmer. I think that comes with some caveats but I’m willing to accept it for now. I’ll have to wait for the final polling to put anything as a for sure, but I think you have

Confirmed* Town
[Sloonei
Quin
Dizzy
Timmer]

Town people:
[TSP
Dom
Epi]

Meh:
[Sig
LC
DDL
Wilgy]

Who?:
[Mac
No Show 1 = Nova
No Show 2- Michelle]

Anyone wanna give me odds remaining mafia are in solely the bottom two groups?

Nah Epi should be villager and the other one could be in the meh part isn't it? Of course it would be spicy to be in the "who?" part. Mac posted today in a way I liked, idk if this is out of his scum range though and I didn't play enough with him to know.

Now also I found this post:

Alright let’s get this started. Who’s scum and why is it sig?

I would ISO sig after I will finish with TSPs ISO because I found at Dr.W something who can show he didn't have TMI. I am not certain of him being town but my conviction he is scum dropped at 60% so his Iso can wait.

[Michelle]

I voted for LC because DDL's post is the first post I read and I think it's important that we work together even if DDL is scum because I don't know if he is or isn't so taking a punt on that is good.

I also have a hunch on LC

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Feels like hes more self-contained than usual or something.

I'll vote you back for forgetting that apostrophe. [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Looking at these last two votes, LC’s is stupid and Mac’s is weird stupid. Weird stupid isn’t the most scum, but it gives off the tinglies.

Is this all a weird stupid reason to be voting Mac, thus rendering me scum by my own logic?
Simple. I am not bound by logic.

but I need a logic here though.
Two stupid (?) voted. Idk if I can stretch the reasoning of the other post here because by now he would search to post in a different way maybe, or not, depending of the fact he was or not conscious about this shading without scumreading he is doing again.
Not the most scum giving the tinglies means that Mac's vote is worse for him that LCs vote.
I need to think more at the reason here, looks like lunch break strikes me with lack of concentration

Tony, why are you going specifically after the Fearsome Four? Do you agree with Epi that there's likely a baddie among them?

I don't really want to go after them. They all came together to lynch a baddie Day 1, in hot-potato fashion. That's good enough for me to want to look elsewhere for the next lynch.

This is agendaed.

[MacDougall]

I still think Sloonei has teammate equity with Tony. Even DDL had them as compatible at one point. Nothing that happened here can't be explained as distancing/bussing.

I'd lynch DDL first. If the game isn't over and one of Sloonei/Epi is alive they die.

If Sloonei lives tonight he is an autolynch. Scum kill him if civ. My doubts aren't enough to modify this need. Even I wouldn't leave him alive tonight if I had the bullet.

It's like you are just that crazy guy we should ignore because you don't know what you are talking about.

Sloonei can't possibly be scum.

Man stop being such a dick lol.

[MacDougall]

Michelle, TSP played this game outright blatant imo. Imo he pushed townies, protected his teammate when he needed and otherwise ignored their existence. If I am right who do you think fits the bill best?

[MacDougall]

Ok maybe it's unfair from me to say you are not reading the game "on purpose". You should really be busy irl.

But the problem is that you are completely clueless and yet pretending you have the whole hame solved. And because of that your posts amount to just spam.

I disagree.

[MacDougall]

I kind of feel like Wilgy would?

Let's flip Wilgy and see. If Wilgy is scum, I must be either scum or town.

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I've read nothing and I will not be lynching either of you on day 1.

Call two townies correctly off nothing. I'm spam.

Hey it's tomorrow. I see Dom was lynched. That was quite unfortunate. Sorry about that Dom.

I am enjoying reading a game where people are forced to make assertions and shit against me based on nothing. I've not lived this long in a game I've lurked before. I can't promise I won't continue to.

I will however say that Sloonei and TSP pinged me. Epignosis also has some content that I was surprised to see was his. His tone is unusual.

Sloonei is playing quite within himself. I don't think he is a town voice. TSP 's post count list is pretty busyworkish. TSP where's your obvious town play?

Michelle I like. Sig and LC has this weird moment where they coalesced some equally unwarranted suspicion towards her which could be btsc leakage.

Call out TSP ages ago. I'm completely clueless.

I don't know how to read any of that.

DDL is good because he said stuff that meant stuff
Sig is bad because he didn’t

Ya reckon?

Sure why not

I dunno. Just seems like bullshit.

Call out more TSP bullshit. I'm clueless.

So I was wrong a bit. Just because I'm not posting a million times this game doesn't mean my analysis and opinion is invalid DDL. If you are town you should listen to the parts of what I am saying that aren't the things you know to be incorrect because the other parts are likely correct.

So with that being said how is Epi not your number one subject? In my view you both should have arrived at each other as the last scum by deduction if you were actually trying.

[MacDougall]

And you've spent more time complaining about my bullshitness and wrongness than you have making arguments about me being bad. What's even the point? How does that find the fur?

[MacDougall]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

[DrWilgy]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

I love ya dad.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I still think Sloonei has teammate equity with Tony. Even DDL had them as compatible at one point. Nothing that happened here can't be explained as distancing/bussing.

I'd lynch DDL first. If the game isn't over and one of Sloonei/Epi is alive they die.

If Sloonei lives tonight he is an autolynch. Scum kill him if civ. My doubts aren't enough to modify this need. Even I wouldn't leave him alive tonight if I had the bullet.

It's like you are just that crazy guy we should ignore because you don't know what you are talking about.

Sloonei can't possibly be scum.

Man stop being such a dick lol.

I'm sorry but you have basically spent all game ignoring what people say, not wanting to learn what is going on and pretending you have a better grasp than everyone else.

You just quoted a post from me speculating on the people who voted for Creature, and instead of researching to see what it was about or reading some of the dozens of pages of discussion on the Creature lynch, you moved straight to accusing me without even looking at the Creature lynch yourself. And nobody is going to care about that post because everyone else knows what the context is, only you don't. So you are just spamming the thread with busywork.

It's okay if you don't have the time to read everyhing but then you can't keep your playstyle of bossing people around with the little you know. It's annoying. I have to wake up in the morning with 3 notifications from someone who is not playing the same game I'm playing, and doesn't want to.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

That's the thing though, you are the low activity version of normal mac, who had all the attitude but none of the game-awareness to back it up.

That said, you have a point that I'm probably wasting time arguing with you. I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all.

[Long Con]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

That's the thing though, you are the low activity version of normal mac, who had all the attitude but none of the game-awareness to back it up.

That said, you have a point that I'm probably wasting time arguing with you. I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all.

So, Mac is a Civilian in your eyes?

[Long Con]

By the way, civilians lost that game.

The toxic environment created by the hot potato "winners" wasn't worth the trouble.

Uhm, I'm just challenging you on your thoughts about the lynch, dude. Like... I'm not being toxic? Wtf is this?

Dys is being extremely unpleasant about the "everyone confirmed town" thing and Sloon is being kind of annoying too.

There is also a witch hunt going on against people who do not agree you 3 are confirmed scum.

Luffy was mad the town core was good? Then two of them died and he pocketed Sloonei.

Yeah ok I'm just gonna stop here. Dudes scum. Figure it out. See you tomorrow.

I agree with the statements herein.

[sig]

Had a hella long army meeting yesterday, literally all day. Sorry I wasn't around.

I've been sketchy on tsp for awhile so yay one more down.
I think its 100% likely that the kill was blocked and tsp was trying to flesh out the blocker.

I'm also 100% sure sloonie is still mafia and plan to review him tomorrow and build at least a small case since I personally think hes the last mafia.

[sig]

Also notice sloonie/tsp managed to force a tie while still going after sloonie?

I think rhat was a coordinated action.

[sig]

I'd also eye ddl a but since his push for inactive now seems totally wrong

[Sloonei]

I'm also 100% sure sloonie is still mafia and plan to review him tomorrow and build at least a small case since I personally think hes the last mafia.

I’m amazed at you guys think I’m capable of.

[Sloonei]

I can’f even type a simple sentence without messing it up.

[Sloonei]

i give up

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'd also eye ddl a but since his push for inactive now seems totally wrong

Hindsight is amazing.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

That's the thing though, you are the low activity version of normal mac, who had all the attitude but none of the game-awareness to back it up.

That said, you have a point that I'm probably wasting time arguing with you. I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all.

So, Mac is a Civilian in your eyes?

Not sure.

[Long Con]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

That's the thing though, you are the low activity version of normal mac, who had all the attitude but none of the game-awareness to back it up.

That said, you have a point that I'm probably wasting time arguing with you. I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all.

So, Mac is a Civilian in your eyes?

Not sure.

Just that "I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all." doesn't really make sense if you are considering he could be bad, only if you know he's Civ.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

He'll I'm just trying to play a game in chill mode. I enjoy it. Don't force me to be normal Mac. He sucks.

That's the thing though, you are the low activity version of normal mac, who had all the attitude but none of the game-awareness to back it up.

That said, you have a point that I'm probably wasting time arguing with you. I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all.

So, Mac is a Civilian in your eyes?

Not sure.

Just that "I'll leave you alone. Maybe your thing works after all." doesn't really make sense if you are considering he could be bad, only if you know he's Civ.

"Leave you alone" means I'll stop arguing about the thing I have been arguing.

Doesn't mean I'll stop judging his alignment.

That said I do lean town on him.

[Sloonei]

Tony & Mac

Spoiler: show

I voted for LC because DDL's post is the first post I read and I think it's important that we work together even if DDL is scum because I don't know if he is or isn't so taking a punt on that is good.

Good odds that this is intentional but this is also a bad post

I voted for LC because DDL's post is the first post I read and I think it's important that we work together even if DDL is scum because I don't know if he is or isn't so taking a punt on that is good.

I also have a hunch on LC

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Feels like hes more self-contained than usual or something.

I'll vote you back for forgetting that apostrophe. [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Looking at these last two votes, LC’s is stupid and Mac’s is weird stupid. Weird stupid isn’t the most scum, but it gives off the tinglies.

Is this all a weird stupid reason to be voting Mac, thus rendering me scum by my own logic?
Simple. I am not bound by logic.

Day 1 stuff. Super weak prods/suspicions. I think(?) the bottom post is a vote for Mac, but it won't stay there for long if so, and Tony seems to have forgotten about it later.

Quantitative/qualitative analysis thing from Day 1. Has Mac listed as one of the lowest-scoring players in the game after previously calling out 2 of his 3 earlier posts in the game. Makes no mention of him in his write up.

On night 1 he lists Mac under the "Who? heading along with the two inactives. He called Mac out twice early in Day 1 and then suggested he was unaware of his presence in the game. This suggests the earlier posts were just for show.

I was told Mac

You were told Creature by Quin and Mac by me. Consecutive posts.

Yes I was confused

Imagine not knowing which one of your teammates was just lynched Day 1.

I have slight town reads on a lot of people right now, which lends credence to DDL’s inactive scum theory. That said, I don’t think there’s any point to vote for Mac just to entice him to show up if we don’t intend to lynch him. It’s -EV to lynch any essentially inactive player, especially Mac who might show up and solve the game. In Fallout he had 2 posts and then day 1 he came in and called out both scum.

Noted.

so WIFOM me this... does scum Mac ever make a drive by attack on Dom without any support?

Yes. This inquiry is isolated and goes nowhere.

Let’s get this thing moving.


Epi: have you finished reading?
Sloonei: do you think a reasonable POE exists at this stage?
Dys: ditto Sloonei
Timmer: who do you think is scum?
Dom: Why is Mac voting for you?
LC: why shouldn’t I vote for you?
Wilgy: why can I not remember anything you’ve said this game?
DDL: convince me to vote for Mac
Mac: say hi
Sig: give me a narrative about who’s bad and why it makes sense.

The Most Generic Prod In the World. He has two questions about Mac but zero questions for Mac. At the very least this tells me that Tony doesn't actually care about reading Mac. That could just be an indicator that he's scum. It could also mean that Mac is his teammate, but it doesn't have to.

"I think a Wilgy lynch makes more sense than a Mac lynch"

On Night 2 Mac is in the Bad Bucket. Shortly after he does another qualitative thing which has Mac near the bottom, but he continues to offer no elaboration on him. I remind us all again that he would prefer to lynch wilgy over Mac.

Spoiler: show

Hey it's tomorrow. I see Dom was lynched. That was quite unfortunate. Sorry about that Dom.

I am enjoying reading a game where people are forced to make assertions and shit against me based on nothing. I've not lived this long in a game I've lurked before. I can't promise I won't continue to.

I will however say that Sloonei and TSP pinged me. Epignosis also has some content that I was surprised to see was his. His tone is unusual.

Sloonei is playing quite within himself. I don't think he is a town voice. TSP 's post count list is pretty busyworkish. TSP where's your obvious town play?

Michelle I like. Sig and LC has this weird moment where they coalesced some equally unwarranted suspicion towards her which could be btsc leakage.

I’m still happy about the questions day 2 but I guess it didn’t work out cause everyone just decided to lynch dom. post list was busyworkish but I said I’d do it day 1 and I was bored so I did it again. Shrug

Lifeless exchange.

On Day 3 Tony continues to think wilgy is a better lynch than Mac. Mac has come up as a subject in several Tony posts between this and the above exchange but I didn't quote them here because they'd be clutter. Instead I'll just register the point that Tony has continued to say absolutely nothing distinct about Mac. He's just a person that exists in the background.
Also gonna put an asterisk in this period right here as a reason why DDL is not Tony's partner for later. Asterisk.

A subsequent example of Tony not actually saying anything about Mac.

Turned the page in Tony's ISO and, whoa, he votes for Mac. This was on Day 3, when he lynched nova/sorsha. Tony ended up staying on Mac. I'll note that, despite his vote, he has continued to say nothing about Mac. He changed his vote from wilgy to Mac, not because Mac did anything to earn the vote, but because he no longer suspected wilgy. Mac is a token suspect here. I have no problem seeing this as an empty suspicion to put distance between them.

Shortly after, Mac is in his 3-person POE.

Mac becomes a much bigger topic of discussion on Day 4 in the "Who doesn't kill Sloonei?" dialogues. There are several passing mentions, but I'll highlight this one post in particular:

Spoiler: show

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

"a team with [Mac] takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei." Well they clearly were trying to lynch me, so. I also don't know why this point exists anyway. It is mental gymnastics to vindicate Macdougall, who has been a principal figure in Tony's POE.

Then in the second paragraph: "My read on Mac individually is null lean scum." That does not compute with the earlier reads Tony has expressed. Mac was his vote yesterday and one of the three players left in his POE pool entering this phase. One would take that to be stronger than a "null lean scum" read. He also absolves himself of needing to produce anything more concrete with "I will make no attempts to read Mac himself." Why is Tony treating Mac this way if Mac is town? He's doing backflips away from him while also pretending that he's a lynch candidate.

I'd be content to rest my case there. There were some more interactions yesterday, but nothing that introduces new points or adds anything substantial. Except for one thing: It's clear from the final 24 hours of Day 5 that Tony had waved the white flag. He was not fighting, he was just running out the clock and not engaging in anything that could potentially reveal anything new. Given this, it's clear that he'd agreed to be bussed.
Mac abruptly shifted from Sloonei to Tony in this time. I don't believe that Tony was very much on his radar at any point prior to this.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
tl;dr: Mac bad. Tony never actually talks about Mac in a meaningful way. There's absolutely no substantive read anywhere in here. Mac is always a player who is in the vicinity of suspicion, but Tony never actually puts him in the path of a lynch. He floats the idea, but never in a way that's serious. On Day 4 he seemed to be working hard to resist saying anything that would direct any energy toward Mac. Mac voted for Tony Day 5 after Tony had already surrendered.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: Sorsha/Nova] aubergine

I'm not totally convinced but I trust the people on the wagon and if someone ties it with Wilgy we get a no lynch.

And I'm not feeling the wilgy lynch at all.

It's wilgy. Normal scum tells don't cut it. Either have a really good reason, or admit you are randomizing the lynch, because wilgy is a crapshoot.

I think a Wilgy Lynch is better than a Mac lynch. Probably slightly better than a Nova lynch.

Why?

The way Day 2 played out my guess is that DDL/Mac isn’t a likely scum team. But I could see DDL/Wilgy. I have a slight scum read on Wilgy and no read on the other two, but I tend to ascribe to the “give replacements more than half a phase” philosophy and I think the “Nova lacked pizzazz” case is lacking. I haven’t really read the last two hours (Jeopardy was on) so I’ll go reread and see if anything catches my eye.

This post screams "DDL is town" to me. It's not immediately clear why Tony is formulating these pairings, but he rejects the likelihood of a world where Mac is scum while promoting the idea of DDL being scum. He's been a little more all over the place than with Mac (who he had a clear pattern of association with); DDL bounces from suspect to town read, to suspect again and back to town read as the game goes on. It all looks like Tony was riding the wave of the thread and trying to put pressure on DDL whenever the opportunity presented itself.

I'll also add that the way Tony so adamantly opposed DDL's lynch at the end of Day 4 does not look like a teammate save. Tony wanted me lynched, and he objected to DDL as the counterwagon because it weakened the chances of eliminating me. If DDL is his partner and there's a good chance he gets lynched that day, Tony probably doesn't want to be seen as the person who was most vocally opposed to lynching him.

[Sloonei]

Day 1:

Hey it's tomorrow. I see Dom was lynched. That was quite unfortunate. Sorry about that Dom.

I am enjoying reading a game where people are forced to make assertions and shit against me based on nothing. I've not lived this long in a game I've lurked before. I can't promise I won't continue to.

I will however say that Sloonei and TSP pinged me. Epignosis also has some content that I was surprised to see was his. His tone is unusual.

Sloonei is playing quite within himself. I don't think he is a town voice. TSP 's post count list is pretty busyworkish. TSP where's your obvious town play?

Michelle I like. Sig and LC has this weird moment where they coalesced some equally unwarranted suspicion towards her which could be btsc leakage.

Days 2-4:


Night 4:

If TSP is bad, he stopped the lynch when he could have let Sloonei die. If TSP is bad, Sloonei is most likely bad.

Yeah they're both scum

[Sloonei]

DDL's also got loads of interactions with Tony that look too natural, conversational, or favorable to be teammate exchanges in my eyes. Some examples:

Spoiler: show

bimbo 0/5
Creature 1/5
...

Dizzy - 69 (nice)
Epi - 21
...

The idea with this is I tend to get the idea that scum players get in less fights or leave less an impression. That’s not foolproof, but whenever I get a “meh” feeling about someone it’s usually because they’re posting but I don’t feel like I remember what they’re saying or they seem to have just a few set goals in mind.

Standouts: Creature is low but that’s semi-expected on meta. Dom is high, probably town look for him. Sig is probably high on recency bias. Everything else is mostly in line.

Result: slight town read on Dom, no other changes

I love this method maybe I'll use it.

I like tony tbh

TSP is mad at the Day 1 Mutant Ninja Turtles treating each other as confirmed.

Could be 2 things.

Rage from a civilian who hates it when other civilians get cocky about a hot potato result (a sentiment I've felt myself before)

or

Rage from a mafioso who just got screwed and is scared at the prospect of 4 confirmed civs on Day 1.

Pick one.

Okay let’s push past the people (myself included) being dramatic part and move on.

There was talk last night about LC likely being town from results. Someone explain that to me. Sloonei maybe?

I have slight town reads on a lot of people right now, which lends credence to DDL’s inactive scum theory. That said, I don’t think there’s any point to vote for Mac just to entice him to show up if we don’t intend to lynch him. It’s -EV to lynch any essentially inactive player, especially Mac who might show up and solve the game. In Fallout he had 2 posts and then day 1 he came in and called out both scum.

I'm not voting Mac to make him show up.

I'm voting Mac because I think lynching him right now is a good move, considering we just got 1 baddie and there is a good chance there are inactives among the remaining ones. I feel like a semi-active baddie would have given more of a damn at EoD1.

And I haven't played with Sorsha in ages so I'm picking Mac over her.

If Mac decides to become active, this assessment may change, but right now I'm voting him to lynch him.

Hiya TSP.

Who's Quin's teamate?

Same line as this. Wilgy had been half jokingly attacking Quin for most of the phase but this, given the circumstance, seems like something scum wouldn’t want to try to pursue.

This particular case might only work in retrospect, there was confusion immediately following the lynch and flip and I don’t think scum necessarily played logically.

I don't think scum cares about any of that.

Scum knows none of what they say will matter after the flip so they can just say random crap.

[MacDougall]

Tony & Mac

Spoiler: show

I voted for LC because DDL's post is the first post I read and I think it's important that we work together even if DDL is scum because I don't know if he is or isn't so taking a punt on that is good.

Good odds that this is intentional but this is also a bad post

I voted for LC because DDL's post is the first post I read and I think it's important that we work together even if DDL is scum because I don't know if he is or isn't so taking a punt on that is good.

I also have a hunch on LC

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Feels like hes more self-contained than usual or something.

I'll vote you back for forgetting that apostrophe. [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Looking at these last two votes, LC’s is stupid and Mac’s is weird stupid. Weird stupid isn’t the most scum, but it gives off the tinglies.

Is this all a weird stupid reason to be voting Mac, thus rendering me scum by my own logic?
Simple. I am not bound by logic.

Day 1 stuff. Super weak prods/suspicions. I think(?) the bottom post is a vote for Mac, but it won't stay there for long if so, and Tony seems to have forgotten about it later.

Quantitative/qualitative analysis thing from Day 1. Has Mac listed as one of the lowest-scoring players in the game after previously calling out 2 of his 3 earlier posts in the game. Makes no mention of him in his write up.

On night 1 he lists Mac under the "Who? heading along with the two inactives. He called Mac out twice early in Day 1 and then suggested he was unaware of his presence in the game. This suggests the earlier posts were just for show.

I was told Mac

You were told Creature by Quin and Mac by me. Consecutive posts.

Yes I was confused

Imagine not knowing which one of your teammates was just lynched Day 1.

I have slight town reads on a lot of people right now, which lends credence to DDL’s inactive scum theory. That said, I don’t think there’s any point to vote for Mac just to entice him to show up if we don’t intend to lynch him. It’s -EV to lynch any essentially inactive player, especially Mac who might show up and solve the game. In Fallout he had 2 posts and then day 1 he came in and called out both scum.

Noted.

so WIFOM me this... does scum Mac ever make a drive by attack on Dom without any support?

Yes. This inquiry is isolated and goes nowhere.

Let’s get this thing moving.


Epi: have you finished reading?
Sloonei: do you think a reasonable POE exists at this stage?
Dys: ditto Sloonei
Timmer: who do you think is scum?
Dom: Why is Mac voting for you?
LC: why shouldn’t I vote for you?
Wilgy: why can I not remember anything you’ve said this game?
DDL: convince me to vote for Mac
Mac: say hi
Sig: give me a narrative about who’s bad and why it makes sense.

The Most Generic Prod In the World. He has two questions about Mac but zero questions for Mac. At the very least this tells me that Tony doesn't actually care about reading Mac. That could just be an indicator that he's scum. It could also mean that Mac is his teammate, but it doesn't have to.

"I think a Wilgy lynch makes more sense than a Mac lynch"

On Night 2 Mac is in the Bad Bucket. Shortly after he does another qualitative thing which has Mac near the bottom, but he continues to offer no elaboration on him. I remind us all again that he would prefer to lynch wilgy over Mac.

Spoiler: show

Hey it's tomorrow. I see Dom was lynched. That was quite unfortunate. Sorry about that Dom.

I am enjoying reading a game where people are forced to make assertions and shit against me based on nothing. I've not lived this long in a game I've lurked before. I can't promise I won't continue to.

I will however say that Sloonei and TSP pinged me. Epignosis also has some content that I was surprised to see was his. His tone is unusual.

Sloonei is playing quite within himself. I don't think he is a town voice. TSP 's post count list is pretty busyworkish. TSP where's your obvious town play?

Michelle I like. Sig and LC has this weird moment where they coalesced some equally unwarranted suspicion towards her which could be btsc leakage.

I’m still happy about the questions day 2 but I guess it didn’t work out cause everyone just decided to lynch dom. post list was busyworkish but I said I’d do it day 1 and I was bored so I did it again. Shrug

Lifeless exchange.

On Day 3 Tony continues to think wilgy is a better lynch than Mac. Mac has come up as a subject in several Tony posts between this and the above exchange but I didn't quote them here because they'd be clutter. Instead I'll just register the point that Tony has continued to say absolutely nothing distinct about Mac. He's just a person that exists in the background.
Also gonna put an asterisk in this period right here as a reason why DDL is not Tony's partner for later. Asterisk.

A subsequent example of Tony not actually saying anything about Mac.

Turned the page in Tony's ISO and, whoa, he votes for Mac. This was on Day 3, when he lynched nova/sorsha. Tony ended up staying on Mac. I'll note that, despite his vote, he has continued to say nothing about Mac. He changed his vote from wilgy to Mac, not because Mac did anything to earn the vote, but because he no longer suspected wilgy. Mac is a token suspect here. I have no problem seeing this as an empty suspicion to put distance between them.

Shortly after, Mac is in his 3-person POE.

Mac becomes a much bigger topic of discussion on Day 4 in the "Who doesn't kill Sloonei?" dialogues. There are several passing mentions, but I'll highlight this one post in particular:

Spoiler: show

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

"a team with [Mac] takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei." Well they clearly were trying to lynch me, so. I also don't know why this point exists anyway. It is mental gymnastics to vindicate Macdougall, who has been a principal figure in Tony's POE.

Then in the second paragraph: "My read on Mac individually is null lean scum." That does not compute with the earlier reads Tony has expressed. Mac was his vote yesterday and one of the three players left in his POE pool entering this phase. One would take that to be stronger than a "null lean scum" read. He also absolves himself of needing to produce anything more concrete with "I will make no attempts to read Mac himself." Why is Tony treating Mac this way if Mac is town? He's doing backflips away from him while also pretending that he's a lynch candidate.

I'd be content to rest my case there. There were some more interactions yesterday, but nothing that introduces new points or adds anything substantial. Except for one thing: It's clear from the final 24 hours of Day 5 that Tony had waved the white flag. He was not fighting, he was just running out the clock and not engaging in anything that could potentially reveal anything new. Given this, it's clear that he'd agreed to be bussed.
Mac abruptly shifted from Sloonei to Tony in this time. I don't believe that Tony was very much on his radar at any point prior to this.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
tl;dr: Mac bad. Tony never actually talks about Mac in a meaningful way. There's absolutely no substantive read anywhere in here. Mac is always a player who is in the vicinity of suspicion, but Tony never actually puts him in the path of a lynch. He floats the idea, but never in a way that's serious. On Day 4 he seemed to be working hard to resist saying anything that would direct any energy toward Mac. Mac voted for Tony Day 5 after Tony had already surrendered.

Come the fuck on

[MacDougall]

I can't speak for all of Tony's shit but contrast the small pool of interactions with Creature along with how he treats dead townies and I do not profile.

Notwithstanding you handwaved my interactions with him. He was one of my major cases. You're just taking what are total points in my favour and fitting them into an incorrect worldview and doing the inverse for DDL.

Read my latest posts if you're gonna force me to engage this. I'm trying to solve the game. Don't look past that.

[MacDougall]

Also I voted for him way early on day 5 Sloonei. Way before he gave up. You misremember. He only had 2 or 3 votes on him when I voted. I put him well out of range of saving.

And your point about him not making a substantive read is not a good one. Firstly, compare the substantiveness of his effort on me with others. He made some of his MOST substantive reads ON ME. That they weren't substantive in isolation is a productive of the fact they were fabricated, like all his reads.

Tony did try to get me lynched, arguably more than anyone. He continuously returned me to discussion. What is the benefit of doing that if I am his teammate coasting through?

Tony probably had worry throughout the game that I would reactivate and cause him issues. I mean he more or less said as much. He tried to keep me lynchable but it didn't ever take. Primarily because most of the civilians probably are tone reading my slank play as town. What do scum do when that happens? They just pivot. Which he did constantly all game. He didn't care who he lynched as long as it was a townie. That's why I believe his partner was someone he kept clean. Namely Epi.

[Sloonei]

Notwithstanding you handwaved my interactions with him. He was one of my major cases. You're just taking what are total points in my favour and fitting them into an incorrect worldview and doing the inverse for DDL.

Show me what you're talking about.

[Sloonei]

Also I voted for him way early on day 5 Sloonei. Way before he gave up. You misremember. He only had 2 or 3 votes on him when I voted. I put him well out of range of saving.

The timing of your vote fits with the assumption that Tony and his partner had agreed that their best move was to bus him. Your vote came earlier than his surrender because timezones.

And your point about him not making a substantive read is not a good one. Firstly, compare the substantiveness of his effort on me with others. He made some of his MOST substantive reads ON ME. That they weren't substantive in isolation is a productive of the fact they were fabricated, like all his reads.

Tony did try to get me lynched, arguably more than anyone. He continuously returned me to discussion. What is the benefit of doing that if I am his teammate coasting through?

This is not true. I can look just about anywhere in his ISO and find more substantive reads on loads of players. Long Con, DDL & sig, wilgy, wilgy again, me for kind of all of Day 4. My point is that Tony constantly named you as a suspect, but spent absolutely no time talking about you or the specifics of your play, and even avoids doing it at times. It looks very hollow. By contrast, there are other players he engaged directly with and tried to shade with specific evidence.
The benefit is that he looks good if you do end up getting lynched, but he doesn't actually have to put you in the line of fire.

Tony probably had worry throughout the game that I would reactivate and cause him issues. I mean he more or less said as much. He tried to keep me lynchable but it didn't ever take. Primarily because most of the civilians probably are tone reading my slank play as town. What do scum do when that happens? They just pivot. Which he did constantly all game. He didn't care who he lynched as long as it was a townie. That's why I believe his partner was someone he kept clean. Namely Epi.

I'd be interested in an Epi case.

[Epignosis]

Nope.

[Sloonei]

Legacy read team:

I do not think it's LC or DDL.
I have not checked Epi, but he feels honest. Ditto for Michelle, just change the gender pronoun.
Wilgy is a shrug. I have not been inclined to lynch him at any point this game, but I can't honestly say I have a definitive reason to rule him out as a Creature/Tony partner. Feels unlikely.
sig is probably the closest thing to a wildcard. I doubt it, but I haven't looked at him as a suspect at all outside of a brief moment on Day 1.
Mac makes sense to me. If I survive the night then my vote is going straight to him.