Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [GAME OVER]

[TonyStarkPrime]

Hey nanook here's my biggest problem with you. You keep using that weird af shrug emoji in every single post when we have not one but TWO excellent shrug emoji of our own. One of which was made by our own esteemed host Long Con.

I like my shrug emoji. It’s my favorite emoji

(It literally comes up when I type emoji)

I used the shrug emoji for a long time here but it never comes out as I want it to.

[tedxtr]

i take dibs on ":shrug:"

[tedxtr]

oh shit what hold on

[TonyStarkPrime]

This is amazing in the worst way you guys. I've nailed scum on both teams and just have to pick which one we lynch first. Tony gimme some power analysis or something

Lynch the master team one first unless kill doesn’t get inherited in which case kill other one

[TonyStarkPrime]

Green Arrow’s Bow appeared on the items list. That wasn’t there before ?

[Long Con]

@Long Con @Black Rock
Two things
When a mafia team is eliminated, does the remaining team then kill every night, or still just every other night?
And re: the poll, Radish is on it and Colin is not.

Thanks, fixed. Tony is currently voting for Colin. :o

If a team gets eliminated, the other team kills every night.

[ColinIsCool]

Don’t expect a lot from me today, I’m helping watch an adorable baby while his parents are at work. Might fuck around and do fancy stuff tomorrow

[TonyStarkPrime]

@Long Con @Black Rock
Two things
When a mafia team is eliminated, does the remaining team then kill every night, or still just every other night?
And re: the poll, Radish is on it and Colin is not.

Thanks, fixed. Tony is currently voting for Colin. :o

If a team gets eliminated, the other team kills every night.

Kill Mac

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think our best option today is to lynch someone who has high equity for being on the master’s team with Mac and also without Mac.

[TonyStarkPrime]

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

[S~V~S]

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

And you think this person is me? Pray tell why.

[TonyStarkPrime]

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

And you think this person is me? Pray tell why.

You’re my stall vote before I get my computer out to do the work. I’m trying to figure out why I read you as town you on day 1. Realistically, you’re fifth suspect on the list but you’re first suspect for being on the team we need to kill someone on.

[juliets]

I'm running a little late this morning with my post. I decided to try posting thoughts as I go. From here I need to read through Mac and sig while I'm fresh.

Okay I gotta go for real. I have a ride along for a job all day tomorrow, a quiz, case study, and test that I haven't studied enough for. Then like 2 more tests and a paper. So i'll only be popping in.

linki: Rude my theory makes perfect sense paired with an ISO read of Mac.

And for that reason I will be ISOing Mac this morning.

The theory fits together nicely but I want to see bad Mac for myself.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine I'm not seeing town fire in her

I haven't seen it either which worries me. When we were bad together she posted much less than her normal town meta.

So much for the thunderdome then

I don't know what that means either.

Thank goodness, I was feeling dumb for not knowing what thunderdome means.

I think we should hunt as if we don't have a great lead and then assess as we go?

This is not someone trying to actually solve the game.
This is someone looking to antagonize anyone who disagrees into exhaustion.

I haven't done the ISO yet but my perception matches that Mac hasn't tried to solve the game.

But by far the most intriguing thing on these joint lists is the placement of sig on both occasions. On the surface sig feels like a comfortable town read, but Jay and I both approached Radishes' interactions from different ends of the spectrum, and we both came out of our respective exercises with negative opinions of sig.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine for now while I do some more digging.

This was surprising to me because there has been so much talk about sig being good. If sig is bad then maybe G-Man is right and sig's theory is "too tidy". Another ISO to do, after Mac.

3 for 3 deal? Hmmmm

Ted whatcha talking about here?

Like honestly, Epi, what are you doing.

Your best effort and genuine feeling won’t get me lynched. You know just repeating shit like “Jack is bad” or “Jack should be lynched” isn’t going to do the trick.

What? Are you treading water or something?

I'm not town reading Jack (I'm still sorting him) but the middle paragraph is a good point. Epi, please give some thoughts on why you see him as bad (I haven't done your ISO so if you have and I missed it just point me there).

Like Sig gets lynched every damn game he’s in. He got a universal townread for two days.

Sig didn’t spontaneously generate Juliets level fake purity. He’s just town.

What? Fake purity?

I'm skipping Sloonei's sig ISO until I can do my own, then I'll go back to his.

SVS--
I think he could be, yes. And that makes me very nervous.
G-Man is not one to be underestimated.

I agree. I don't want to believe it but I am also thinking he could be trying to manipulate with that post. Edit: aaaaaand then he makes another post that sounds genuine. The skeptic in me is just too strong though. I'll let this simmer.

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

So you are saying lynch someone for being bad with Mac even though we don't know whether Mac is bad? That feels wrong but I'll ponder it while I ISO some people.

linki: Tony, did you already talk about why S~V~S is number 1 on your list? And I guess you must have posted a list that I don't remember so I'll look back for it.

[juliets]

Oh, and I see [mention]Tranq[/mention] posted some thoughts about people but no reasons. Tranq, can you give us your reasoning, even if it's just a short blurb?

[juliets]

Tony, I couldn't find your list of 5 so it would be great if you would list them with a blurb. Maybe that's what you're getting ready to do.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Tony, I couldn't find your list of 5 so it would be great if you would list them with a blurb. Maybe that's what you're getting ready to do.

Gimme a few minutes

[S~V~S]

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

And you think this person is me? Pray tell why.

You’re my stall vote before I get my computer out to do the work. I’m trying to figure out why I read you as town you on day 1. Realistically, you’re fifth suspect on the list but you’re first suspect for being on the team we need to kill someone on.

I look forward to hearing your reasoning.

[juliets]

Tony, I couldn't find your list of 5 so it would be great if you would list them with a blurb. Maybe that's what you're getting ready to do.

Gimme a few minutes

No prob, I'll check back while I'm reading through Mac.

[Dom]

That sounds stupid so let’s phrase this differently:
If Mac is scum, is there anyone who is surely also scum?
Lynch them instead.
Mac has a very limited range of possibilities and if we lynch him on autopilot and we’re wrong we risk having no leads on what will soon be a fully powered scum team.

"Let us put the cart before the horse. That shall surely work!"

[Dom]

Question for all you Mac believers:

If Mac is good, then what's up with his position on me?
Am I bad? Am I good? Am I whatever is convenient to get Mac out of the situation he is in?

Mac has no scruples. He has no positions. When engaged with (on sabie) he rebuffs because you can't demagogue by acting in good faith. He claims the suspicion of him is all toxic personal attacks. It is not. I suspect Mac because he is not trying to solve the game. He is trying to win. We all are, however, some of us need to solve the game to win. Mac just needs to kill everyone else.

Turnip Head is employing the exact same strategy. Engage in bad faith. Make civ reads, and don't have a dialogue. Obfuscate. Do whatever you can to muddy the record.

I don't like these two in this game. They need to start trying to get lynched.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Alright before I begin, some words on method:

Jack said something earlier along the line of “Radishes flipping scum halves the amount of spots left for Mac” and I initially didn’t find much importance in that. But it has to do with plans: the plan yesterday was that if Radish were town Mac was very likely scum and if Radish were scum we could search and easily find links from that. Radish flipping scum opened up new possibilities, but I and others then pointed out that lynching two anti-monitor members in succession from this point probably leaves town at (11-13)-4 or so, not terrible but not great.
So then we return to a Mac lynch. Reasonable. But this, I think, carries its own set of problems: there’s no plan. Just as town has a bad winrate even lynching scum day 1 in normal games, lynching Mac now — when Mac is likely to not last the night (Bow and scum kill) and certainly not the game — leaves us without any place to go. So we should be looking for someone who has the highest chance of being bad WITHOUT being on a team with Mac or Rad/Sab. Maybe we lynch Mac at the end of the day, but we need to at least have some idea.

Therefore, I will split analyses into three groups of which everyone can be scored:
Bad with R/S, Bad with Mac, Bad w/o R/M

For instance
TSP:
Bad with R/S
Low
Bad with Mac
Medium High
Bad w/o R/M
Low

I think the ideal lynch candidate for today will have results of
Low
Medium
High

But anyone with
High
High
High
Or something should obviously be looked at.

Now I’ll pull out my computer and open a spreadsheet and read some ISOs.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Question for all you Mac believers:

If Mac is good, then what's up with his position on me?
Am I bad? Am I good? Am I whatever is convenient to get Mac out of the situation he is in?

Mac has no scruples. He has no positions. When engaged with (on sabie) he rebuffs because you can't demagogue by acting in good faith. He claims the suspicion of him is all toxic personal attacks. It is not. I suspect Mac because he is not trying to solve the game. He is trying to win. We all are, however, some of us need to solve the game to win. Mac just needs to kill everyone else.

Turnip Head is employing the exact same strategy. Engage in bad faith. Make civ reads, and don't have a dialogue. Obfuscate. Do whatever you can to muddy the record.

I don't like these two in this game. They need to start trying to get lynched.

Has anyone town read Turnip? Is there any reason to?

[Dom]

Tony, I have no idea what you're talking about tbh. That is super confusing to me

[Jackofhearts2005]

@S~V~S

If you had to quantify it what percent would you say Mac is probably civ?

I am not sure what you are asking me. There are only a few people that I think are more than (random percentage) 65% likely to be civ, and Mac isn't one of them.

But based on my reread of his Day One, I read his posts as a natural progression when taken in context. I have no idea why anyone whould try to NK him Night One, so I think the theory positing a specific sequence of events which make Mac bad is faulty for that reason. It is possible, but I don't find it likely.

So I personally am unlikley to vote for him today.

I wanted to ask you a question too. When I asked Badishes about "baddie", both you and Nanook thought I was implying a slip on Radishes part.

Why did you go after Nanook so hard, but not Radishes?

Can you explain the “natural progression” you saw? Because my D1 Mac read is the opposite. He flipped his reads on Nutella and me with seemingly no progression at all.

[Turnip Head]

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think we should hunt as if we don't have a great lead and then assess as we go?

How does one do that exactly?

...not by ruling out someone simply because they aren't on one of the two baddie teams.

If one is not on one of the two baddie teams .... they're a civ (or the other indy role), right? I think the best reason to rule someone out is becasue they are not on one of the two baddie teams.

I have a question for you, this post of G Mans, this large appeal to emotion:

Spoiler: show

Okay, if we’re going to wander down this cocksure ‘G-Man is totes bad’ road to disappointment, then I request that:

1) Someone kill me tonight.

2) Lynch me Day 3.

I’m overwhelmed by the sheer volume of posts. The only reads I have are on players that I think I know well enough, which comes to about seven or eight people. That’s not enough to do the town any good. I’m going to continue to be of little use to the civvies, because all I can muster at this rate is skimming at best. Even that involves skipping large chunks of posts that are about people I’m clueless of.

I admit to being overwhelmed and yet I refuse to sub out. With this much suspicion brewing around me, it’s not fair to ask someone else to come in and wait to die. So that’s not happening. Lynch me and use my lynch for information. We just caught a baddie on Day 2. That gives us a chance to calm down, make a mistake, and be thoughtful and intentional about learning something from it.

As much as I love our hosts, I recognized too late that joining this game was a mistake. There are too many players with too similar personalities making too many posts. Too many of you just blend together in my head. That’s not just this game though- it every game that’s not a Heist. Heck, sometimes even Heists are too much for me. That’s why you don’t see a ‘Best Civ’ or ‘MVP’ Socky in my treasure chest and never will.

After this game, I’m sticking to Heists and hosting. I’m excited about the next game I plan to host. Perhaps that’s where my strengths are. They’re certainly not here.

I don’t want to fight. I don’t want to insult people in the process of trying to convince you I am civ. Let my death convince you of that. If you see me, I’m not lurking; I’m just trying to tread water as best I can.

Thank you and good night.

It worked, becasue I felt like a very bad person for suspecting him.

My question is this; do YOU think G Man would make this post from aplace of manipulation, rather than realsies? I am tending to think the latter, but I am asking you this specifically becasue your interaction with him irl is similar to mine. G Mans baddie game does not involvoe this level of manipulation, imo. I don't see hm doing it.

But all the thread, all my feels up to this point, the vote analyses ... I dunno.

“Do people like try to manipulate people into townreading them in mafia games? Would GMan ethically do such a terrible thing?”

[Turnip Head]

By comparison jack your flip on Nutella Day 1 doesn't look natural, it looks designed

[Jackofhearts2005]

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

Okay so what’s the difference between natural progression that isn’t posted to the thread and unnatural progression that just doesn’t exist?

[Jackofhearts2005]

By comparison jack your flip on Nutella Day 1 doesn't look natural, it looks designed

Lol okay.

[Turnip Head]

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

Okay so what’s the difference between natural progression that isn’t posted to the thread and unnatural progression that just doesn’t exist?

It's a judgment call

[TonyStarkPrime]

Tony, I have no idea what you're talking about tbh. That is super confusing to me

Lemme have my science project

Short: I am a contrarian and don’t think we should lynch Mac or G-Man/Sig and am looking for a good other option.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Tonight is Super Tuesday, and I am a ludicrous politics junkie, so I will likely be scarce tonight

[mention]S~V~S[/mention]

Come hang out on the discord. We’ve run most of the libertarians off.

Spoiler: show

Don't be mad, Juliets.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

Okay so what’s the difference between natural progression that isn’t posted to the thread and unnatural progression that just doesn’t exist?

It's a judgment call

A judgement call based on what? Telepathy?

[Jackofhearts2005]

It’s not on the thread. You can’t call something that doesn’t exist “a natural progression.”

[Jackofhearts2005]

I would hate myself for trying to use a post like that for emotional manipulation.

Y’all are a bunch of sissies.

Playing poker with SVS and GMan and they’re bustin out in tears at every bluff.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[S~V~S]

@S~V~S

If you had to quantify it what percent would you say Mac is probably civ?

I am not sure what you are asking me. There are only a few people that I think are more than (random percentage) 65% likely to be civ, and Mac isn't one of them.

But based on my reread of his Day One, I read his posts as a natural progression when taken in context. I have no idea why anyone whould try to NK him Night One, so I think the theory positing a specific sequence of events which make Mac bad is faulty for that reason. It is possible, but I don't find it likely.

So I personally am unlikley to vote for him today.

I wanted to ask you a question too. When I asked Badishes about "baddie", both you and Nanook thought I was implying a slip on Radishes part.

Why did you go after Nanook so hard, but not Radishes?

Can you explain the “natural progression” you saw? Because my D1 Mac read is the opposite. He flipped his reads on Nutella and me with seemingly no progression at all.

This is the post where I discussed my view on Macs nutella suspicion. You may or may not value it, though, as it starts based on a thought TH brought up, and I know you suspect him. I spoilered it, it's a big post.

Re G-Man and the manipulation, duh. Of course manipulation is the name of the game, but that post was hard and heavy, and I don't know that I see it coming from G Man, becasue he knows me well enough to know that I would possibly be "reality" upset by it. G Man is like Golden, in that some things are not in his personal ethical playbook. So I will not activbely work against his lynch, cause otherwise he looks bad as all fuck, but I won't be voting for him.

Re Discord, maybe I will try it again. I never really liked since since I have a tad bit of social anxiety, and the times I went it was SO MANY people, and many of them were using names I did not know them by, so they felt like strangers, etc.

Spoiler: show

Cause town has perverse incentive to cooperate with scum that have good SRs on the opposite team, so you see mac as doing that and think it’s a townie mindset

Would be my guess anyways

I really really really really dislike his flip flop on how he read me and Nutella. He declared me a wolf and Nutella one we should follow after the two of us started battling. Then like 12 hours later, I was town and Nutella was scum because I read her perfectly.

His argument for Nutella being scum exists in its entirety at the time he expressed a strong townread on her. His read change does not come from a town perspective. It comes from a scum perspective mimicking townplay, ie trusting Jack's Nutella read.

Why would baddie Mac express a strong townread on nutella and then flip flop just as soon? Why would a bad guy do that? It's a townie maneuever, just like your exact opposite flip flop was (I assume) townie.

I like this post, it makes sense to me. I had not seen it this way, I missed his "Nutella is town" posts.

This was Tuesday night,

Nutella is town

This was Weds night,

Btw Jack is always right about Nutella. It's canon. So either he's town and she's wolf or he's wolf and she's wolf, or he's wolf and she's town. But one of them is always a wolf so we should lynch Nutella.

And this one, about an hour after ^^ he started to change mind, you can almost see it.

Btw Jack is always right about Nutella. It's canon. So either he's town and she's wolf or he's wolf and she's wolf, or he's wolf and she's town. But one of them is always a wolf so we should lynch Nutella.

You his teammate? Lmao you know better than this.

I was just thinking you're probably bad anyway. Then this. C'mon man

You have literally been in scum teams with me where you have been immediately caught by Jack and lamented profoundly how well he reads you. So your defense here is hilariously bad.

Then his next post, he made up his mind.

Btw Jack is always right about Nutella. It's canon. So either he's town and she's wolf or he's wolf and she's wolf, or he's wolf and she's town. But one of them is always a wolf so we should lynch Nutella.

You his teammate? Lmao you know better than this.

I was just thinking you're probably bad anyway. Then this. C'mon man

You have literally been in scum teams with me where you have been immediately caught by Jack and lamented profoundly how well he reads you. So your defense here is hilariously bad.

Did you like even read his posts tho. He's wrong and he even said he might be at first, then he doubled down.

I'm not a wolf. Use your own brain, not Jack's.

So he had a little doubt at first as is normal and then soul read you the way that he always does when he's right about you... noted.

This looks very much like a civ minded progression, it looks honest and real, not contrived and set up.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think our best option today is to lynch someone who has high equity for being on the master’s team with Mac

TH!

and also without Mac.

Oh. Then idk.

[Jackofhearts2005]

“One of them is always a wolf so we should lynch Nutella” is a pretty gross post about two non wolves.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I 100% disagree about that progression.

Jack was sure Nutella was scum and said so loudly.

Mac said Nutella was town and Jack was scum with basically no explanation.

Then, after nothing changed between Jack and Nutella, Mac adopted the idea that Jack is always right about Nutella and therefore she is bad and if she’s not, whatever. An excuse to pretend that makes Jack scum.

The not tiny part would be an understandable opinion to have if he started with it or he developed it. That didn’t happen. That opinion appears to have spontaneously generated. More likely, Mac saw a way to shade two players who had each accumulated 6ish votes at some point during the day, hoping for a one two lynch and lynch of players not on his team.

It’s worse than no progression. There’s agenda in it.

[juliets]

[mention]MacDougall[/mention] thoughts -

After finishing this ISO I have to admit I didn't find much, no smoking gun for me that he is bad, so if you want skip this and go to the last paragraph. Sorry part of this is squished together I couldn't get my spacing right.

I'm starting in Day 2 because I read him as town for his N1 posts.

- I said earlier I had the perception that Mac hadn't done much hunting but he did point out specifics about sabie12 being bad. I realize she's on "the other team" but I want to acknowledge that he did that at least.

- There are a sequence of posts during EOD where Mac sounds desperate. He says people should move to another wagon and includes TH in the list and then turns around and tells G-Man that he doesn't suspect TH at all. This post is indicative of the desperate tone I see:

I want to vote mac but dont know why

OMG scum everywhere

- I don't understand where this Dizzy read comes from:

G-Man is outed imo. Dyslexicon looks like a teammate too.

- I don't understand this post - he pointed out specifics that made sabie bad. She's on Radish's team though so I guess this doesn't really matter.

Nanook, Jack and Dom were all on Nutella and me.

Mac cares nothing about facts.
Nanook literally had a civ role when thye voted nutella.

Mac and Sabie should be our priorities tomorrow.

Why Sabie?

- This was Mac's red list after the lynch. I can see argument for most of these though I'm not reading Dom as scum at the moment and sprityo I'm up in the air about.

Michelle (a)
Tranq (a)
Jackofhearts2005 (b)
sabie12 (a/b)
Dom (b)
G-Man (b)
sprityo (b)

- And herein lies the problem ( he did point out right afterwards that now that he has feelers in the game he can start hunting):

Mac hasn't tried to find a baddie for a second. He only cared about lynching anyone not named Mac.

I mean, I did try for some seconds but you are mostly right.

- This is more of a Jack thing but I am paying attention Mac:

I'm not dying as long as people vote for me during the day and I'm not getting lynched as long as I'm me.

Yeah you kept saying this in Inception and you were right and won us the game.

Cautionary tale for those paying attention.

- Here's some hunting and I think his points were pretty good:

Spoiler: show

Not that I suspect Mac but I’ll be voting him anyways [VOTE: mac] aubergine

Absolute scenes as sprityo outs himself as scum

Let's talk about how Sprityo voted for someone he says he didn't suspect over someone who flipped scum and then count the ways how this makes him scum.

Way number 1. He actually did suspect me.

ColinIsCool green
Dom green
Dragomir green
Dyslexicon green
Epignosis green
JaggedJimmyJay green
juliets green
Michelle green
sabie12 green
Sloonei green
tedxtr green
TonyStarkPrime green
Tranq green

G-Man red
Jackofhearts2005 red
MacDougall red
Master Radishes red
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME 2.0 red
S~V~S red
sig red
speedchuck red
Turnip Head red

I’m comfortable with this personal GTH

By default I put anyone I had no opinion on due to lack of voting as green

Way number 2. He also suspected MR. See above. So if he actually didn't suspect me, he did suspect MR, but he voted me who didn't suspect over MR who he did.

Way number 3. This post, along with the rest of the Jack tunnel.

I see the reasons for voting speedchuck, radishes, Nutella and they all work, I guess.

I just really want to vote jack.

Sprityo has been attacking Jack for much of the game, but in this post he "sees the reason" for voting radishes, yet finds his vote on me at the end of the day. His Jack sus is not legitimate because he's not genuinely pushed it, he's just repeatedly said "Jack is scum". When Jack was near to tying me, Sprityo wasn't pushing his Jack suspicion at all. Just took a back seat until the Jack wagon disappeared enough for him to vote for me instead. The only way his Jack sus could read as illegitimate is if they are teammates. Guess who was on non MR wagons both days. Jack.

- More hunting:

Spoiler: show

Jack on Radish Day 1

Jack mention of Radish #1. Echoes a Jay read.

Radish has made a decent number of posts and none of them have inspired any feeling in me, so that's a net negative.

This mirrors my thoughts as well.

#2 asks TH to clarify his Radish suspicion. Goes nowhere with it/drops it.

I for one hate looking terrible but I'd rather lynch radish

I’m unlikely to move my vote today (especially to a player I’ve mostly see play 3p) but talk to me about Radish anyway.

Can't figure out where to vote. Maybe Radishes but provides a weak reason not to and then doesn't.

I have no idea where I’d put my vote now. Maybe on Radishes but that feels like a cop out because I don’t suspect Radishes I just don’t see anything townie in him and he’s probably the player here whose game I have the weakest grasp of.

Wants an explain on Radishes wagon, tries to push Dom instead (that sure went places).

Somebody explain the Radishes wagon.

I kinda want to lynch Dom.

Has Radishes red in a readslist. Apologies if this is just Jay's list copied again lol.

I think this is about where I'm at atm.


Dyslexicon
Epignosis
juliets
Michelle
nutella
S~V~S

Sloonei
tedxtr
TonyStarkPrime
sprityo
Tranq
Turnip Head

ColinIsCool
Dom
Dragomir

G-Man
Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay
Master Radishes
NANOOK
sabie12
sig
speedchuck

Ends up voting for Nutella over Radishes in a straight tie.

I see no reason to disqualify them as partners on this evidence.

Night 1 Stuff

Out of time. Okay, let’s do this quickly - no links, soz. But trust me on my interpretation.

After Jack initiated the Nutella vote (bottom of page 11), it gained little traction. In fact, he mostly got flack at first – Mac and Sloonei both dismissed it, especially Mac (who called Nutella town and Jack scum in the space of a few posts.) Nutella counter-votes, and Epi and Sprit both join the Jack vote in their own time. But everyone was focusing on Nanookian satire instead.

Jack wouldn’t let it go, and as the discussion over Nanook wanes, Ted votes Nutella (‘page 12 was yucky’), whilst SVS and Dom vote Jack. It becomes the thread’s main focus for a couple pages. The Radish wagon picks up and kills it off, eventually. (Ted switches off at some point.)

Jack still doesn’t let it go, and some pages later Mac now (despite his earlier stance) declares Jack often right about this and nutella’s defence bad (but doesn’t vote there). Turnip Head, seemingly going off of Mac’s posts, votes Nutella (but only says ‘why not’). Epi questions Jack’s logic, but then a page later also votes Nutella (no reason given). Sig quickly also votes Nutella (‘reactions’). A bit later, Dom (reason unclear, but I think about ‘back peddling’) and Sabie (scum!Jack wouldn’t do this) also vote Nutella.

The wagon goes a bit stale, and Epi and Sig both jump off it.

--

At its peak moment, the voters, by my count and in order, were: Jack, TH, Epi, Sig, Dom, Sabie [6]. It’s at this moment that there is very likely at least one scum on the wagon. The Nutella vote gained momentum fairly quickly, and was a duelling wagon with the one on me. Scum mentality is to nudge these sort of wagons, and I think it’s perfectly reasonable to work under the assumption there is at least one in this group.

All 5 non-Jack voters can appear to be opportunistic. TH, Epi, and Dom gave no reasons, whilst Sig and Sabie gave lacklustre reasons. (Also notable is Mac, who nudged it along without ever landing there.)

Of those names, I’m not sure one in particular stands out. I think Sig’s vote was the most egregious, but his macro play of all those names has been the greenest. At the moment I’m not entirely sure where I’d place a vote (and obviously can’t anyway), but GTH I’d say Sabie. Also not a fan of Mac’s play on this – inconsistent and never landed on the wagon or, conversely, showed progression away from it. Just blew on the sparks a bit.



And off to bed I go.

This is all fair (but I don’t have to give you cred for it cause lolmultiball) and I think Dom and Mac look worst off it.

Can teammates reply like this? Of course.

Day 2 Stuff

Cause town has perverse incentive to cooperate with scum that have good SRs on the opposite team, so you see mac as doing that and think it’s a townie mindset

Would be my guess anyways

I really really really really dislike his flip flop on how he read me and Nutella. He declared me a wolf and Nutella one we should follow after the two of us started battling. Then like 12 hours later, I was town and Nutella was scum because I read her perfectly.

His argument for Nutella being scum exists in its entirety at the time he expressed a strong townread on her. His read change does not come from a town perspective. It comes from a scum perspective mimicking townplay, ie trusting Jack's Nutella read.

Why would baddie Mac express a strong townread on nutella and then flip flop just as soon? Why would a bad guy do that? It's a townie maneuever, just like your exact opposite flip flop was (I assume) townie.

Cause he forgot about his townread on her cause it was fake. Or cause Nutella was suddenly more appealing as a lynch considering she was counterwagon to his buddy Radish (which would be convenient considering our top wagons) than she was when I was the only player voting for her.

My progression is out there for everyone to see. Mac's progression doesn't exist on the thread.

Explains why I am bad through aligning me with Radishes. Fairly thoroughly debunked since I reckon. Null on whether that makes him teammates with Radishes. Probably a slightly good look but really if you have a weakened teammate you're gonna tie anyone you can to them.

Doesn't mention Radishes again the entire day.

Each of these are enough to suspect Sprityo in their own right. Too much smoke. The guy is bad.
[/quote]

- Mac why do you see this post as bad?

I have no clue if Jack is town or not. My gut reaction would be town, but I think the only evidence to that end is the WIFOM “oh Jack wouldn’t go after Nutella if he were scum” to which I’ll point out that 1) he might and 2) he backed off.

This is a bad post regardless of Jack's alignment.

-Somebody else, maybe Epi, brought this up too, I am not sure what you are saying here Mac.

IF Mac is mafia then both teams are effectively done. We can piece together the entire other baddie team based off yesterday.

We should be able to find the remaining two Anti-Moniter people based off the two flips as well.

Yes because if I was mafia I would not have anti-spewed the fuck out of things when I looked done for all money. Simple, simple sig.

Worst case Mac isn't mafia we have one mislynch.

BUT say we don't lynch him and let him keep rolling along, they'll keep killing civs and eventually we won't be able to win at all. This is when we still have a margin of error.

More importantly there are 2 roles Sprityo has at this point. If Mac isn't mafia (Very slim chance) Then Sprityo is one of the last members of Anti-Monitors. Potentially last since I still think it's possible Dizzy was mafia.

I mean Sprityo is definitely mafia, so you can go ahead and lynch me and flip that fool afterwards. I am comfortable with death at this point.

Mac, I don't believe you are comfortable with death at this point. (I do see your explanation later as to why but I still don't believe it. Evidence: World Asunder where you clung to life with your last gasp.)

- Mac, are you seriously saying your vote was a joke? It didn't sound like a joke.

And by extension how bad it is that Mac is for realzies voting him?

I'm sorry I didn't realise the deadline was approaching so fast that there wasn't time for memes.

Oh? Was your Sig vote a joke?

I thought it would be funny but apparently it's just another reason why I'm bad lol

- This post about sig caught my eye because in it he says Dom is town under a certain set of circumstances. I have avoided the whole Dom vs. Mac thing because there is history there and I can't trust what I read when one talks about the other which in this game has been all bad (to my memory) except for this post. To me this is a good look for Mac both because of the Dom thing and because he is dealing with his thoughts about the facts with sig, not just being snarky about him (I need to read sig which I will do next to get a better feel for whether I buy what Mac's saying).

Spoiler: show

Allow me.

Sig's first mention of Sabie. Replies to Dizzy to provide some neither here or there thoughts but has her in her civ meta at this point.

Spoiler: show

Players who knows Sabie much better than I, please talk about Sabie.

I've got some experience with her, but not alot.

She generally starts slow and doesn't post much but doesn't post fluff when around. Right now she seems to be within her normal civ meta.

Also a Pre-ISO (minus Michelle) breakdown of my thoughts.

Super duper Civ:
Sig

Civ Reads:
Epi: Playing within Civ meta, active.
SVS: Good tone and activity push. I like how she clarified her Radish Slip thing seemed very civvie.
tedxtr: This may change after I ISO him, but based off D0/early D1 liked him.


Civ Leans:
Sloonei
TH
sprityo
sabie12

Null:
juliets
G-Man
Dyslexicon
TonyStarkPrime
Dom

Need more posts:
Colins
Drag
Tranq


Mafia Lean:
nutella
MacDougall
Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay
Master Radishes
speedchuck
Michelle


Mafia:
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Tried to minimize my null reads. My Jack/Nutella reads are based off their back and forth so I really didn't know where to stick them, but they're both pinging me right now.

First reads list has Sabie as a civ lean, which is inline with previous post, but I suppose counteracted by the fact that she was in fact, bad.

Spoiler: show

Dizzy, Mac, SVS, and TH/Colins are one team
Gman, Sabie, Radish, and (???) on other

linki: Yea sure tunneling since there's just one team whatever.

Next mention is on day 2 and suddenly has Sabie on a team with Radish and G-Man. Fails to provide a fourth option for that team (because he's in it?). There was no explanation as to why Sabie was suddenly mafia to Sig.

Sig


Dom
Epignosis
Jackofhearts2005







NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME 2.0
Sloonei
tedxtr
JaggedJimmyJay
juliets
TonyStarkPrime
Michelle



Dragomir
Tranq




Dyslexicon
ColinIsCool
Turnip Head
S~V~S
speedchuck



G-Man
MacDougall
sprityo
sabie12

Suddenly Sabie is the absolute red. Even more red than me. Still hasn't really explained his read at all. Interesting to note that he has sprityo and G-Man here too. If Sig is team radishes, then I doubt either of them are. It'd be some bullshit to throw 2/3 of your remaining partners into the deep red here.

D1 Nanook is confirmed you dipstick

Anyways, sabie and Dom are likely radish partners. Possibly one between jay/SvS/sloonei as well cause syndicate likes to bus.

Why Dom?

The only other thing close to a Sabie discussion point. He replies to Nanook to ask how Nanook has rationalised Dom as a scum partner of Radishes. Fmpov it seems pretty clear, so I don't actually buy that he really wanted to know. More just wanted to steer Nanook down the wrong path. If Sig is in team radishes/sabie this is a good look for both Dom, and Nanook not being Radishes partner. Dom because this "Why Dom" would be genuine surprise, and perhaps opportunism. Eliminating Dom and Nanook as the final partner would be a good result because until now I had them pretty much locked there.

The worst thing going for sig being teammates with Sabie is that she was apparently deep red to him but he spent literally no time talking about her outside of readslists. Like not even a "I think Sabie might be with Radishes", just literally nothing. There was no explanation about how she went from civ read to scum read either. So explaining how you went from civ read to scum, and specifically what about her play caused this would be helpful sig. I am aware you didn't have a chance to talk on day 2, but you did on night 1 and night 2. Obviously the implication is that you changed your read of her on day 2 when you were unable to speak much. I would have thought that one of your civ reads dropping to hard scum read would be something you'd enter the thread primed to talk about, but you instead have spent almost the entire content of your game attacking me instead.

Overall I'm a little torn because a lot of the other players that have radishes compatibility that aren't flipped (Dom, Nanook, G-Man, Sprityo) don't look very likely to be Sig partners. But as a Sabie partner he definitely profiles based on his content.

I wish I had read through all of this and could say I unequivocally see Mac as scum but I can't say that. I'm not seeing the smoking gun. I will go through the thread though and search for comments about Mac to remind myself the reasons people are so sure he is bad. The best argument for me comes from sig, the whole Saitama theory so maybe my read of sig will help me out. [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] also reminds me about the day 1 turnaround on he and nutella. That bothered me and I posted about it back on Day-something, then I got over it but I can't remember why. I'll revisit the discussion around this.

I'll read sig next after a short break.

[juliets]

Tonight is Super Tuesday, and I am a ludicrous politics junkie, so I will likely be scarce tonight

@S~V~S

Come hang out on the discord. We’ve run most of the libertarians off.

Spoiler: show

Don't be mad, Juliets.

Jack, Jack, Jack, Jack you break my heart.

[mention]S~V~S[/mention] we can help you sort out who is who and the group is pretty consistent from day to day.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lol Juliets but have you considered that hunting humans is literally what wolves do?

Gottem.

[Jackofhearts2005]

If Sig is a wolf, I’ll vote for Tulsi.

Spoiler: show

jk I already voted for Bernie

[speedchuck]

I 100% disagree about that progression.

Jack was sure Nutella was scum and said so loudly.

Mac said Nutella was town and Jack was scum with basically no explanation.

Then, after nothing changed between Jack and Nutella, Mac adopted the idea that Jack is always right about Nutella and therefore she is bad and if she’s not, whatever. An excuse to pretend that makes Jack scum.

The not tiny part would be an understandable opinion to have if he started with it or he developed it. That didn’t happen. That opinion appears to have spontaneously generated. More likely, Mac saw a way to shade two players who had each accumulated 6ish votes at some point during the day, hoping for a one two lynch and lynch of players not on his team.

It’s worse than no progression. There’s agenda in it.

Sounds pretty non-subtle as flip-flops go. Do you think scum mac would be subtle or no?

[Turnip Head]

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

Okay so what’s the difference between natural progression that isn’t posted to the thread and unnatural progression that just doesn’t exist?

It's a judgment call

A judgement call based on what? Telepathy?

It’s not on the thread. You can’t call something that doesn’t exist “a natural progression.”

What are you a robot? Humans have a complicated thoughtlife and not every word makes it onto the written page. You read between the lines.

[Turnip Head]

It's like you're asking me how do I think like a real human

[nutella]

[mention]Dom[/mention]

I have never, and have never wanted to, personally attack you. Hell, I wanted to be nice to you at the beginning of this game and tried to be friendly, and you interpreted it as malicious. I don't know what to do anymore. I like you as a person and think we should be friends but no matter what I say you interpret it as mean. I think this is an issue on your end that you need to work through. From my perspective it is always you who is the one to make something into a personal affront. I have never meant anything to come across that way, and I don't believe mac has either. It's a game dude. I do in fact believe you have been unfair to mac. Try to keep your accusations motivated by game-based stuff, not purely your emotional reactions, which I think have been overblown.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What are you a robot?

Haha what? No. Why would you think that?

[nutella]

I have outlined a case against Mac that involves his out of no-where Day 2 vote for Radishes when he was NOT in the lead for votes, his lack of ability to converse with those who disagree, and him lashing out and appealing to emotion.

If that makes me a toxic asshole then just admit you like Mac and don't want him to be sad that he's been found out.

you got me. Mac is my friend. I surrender.
No reason that should mean you can't be my friend too. I thought we were on better terms after aussie game and some games where we ended up finally working together as civs. I just find that your style of accusation tends to be unnecessarily harsh and assuming that others are not interacting in good faith.