Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [GAME OVER]

[TonyStarkPrime]

Just realized I haven't had clear definitions for Team A and B
In fact they are so unclear that I have used them almost completely interchangeably. If anyone is confused, call my publisher.

Turnip:

I for one hate looking terrible but I'd rather lynch radish

This is a “self aware scum is still scum” thing. And if Turnip knows the other vegetable is scum, this is an easy look good post to make. Notably starts going after Radishes very early, calls a few Michelle posts out for possible distancing with both Radishes AND Colin. This is a good sign because only one of these things can be true and Radishes hasn’t flipped yet. Could be easily read as TMI, knowing that Radishes would flip scum that day BUT I think it’s safe to say not Team B from the attacks on Radishes. He turns to solid defense of Mac. Works well if paired with Mac but also I think if not -- if Team A truly thought Radishes were scum and Mac would not, they wouldn’t just let them fight as some have assumed. Turnip defending Sabie is good evidence of this.

Turnip asking if Nanook still gets ghost posts is interesting. Make of this what you will.
Overall, I don’t think Turnip and Mac are compatible. They don’t have meshing strategies today.

Civs don't necessarily need to show progression they're allowed to change their mind. That's what makes it look natural.

Okay so what’s the difference between natural progression that isn’t posted to the thread and unnatural progression that just doesn’t exist?

It's a judgment call

A judgement call based on what? Telepathy?

It’s not on the thread. You can’t call something that doesn’t exist “a natural progression.”

What are you a robot? Humans have a complicated thoughtlife and not every word makes it onto the written page. You read between the lines.

This is a good post. I think it’s right. I also think it’s scummy.

Team A w/ Mac: low/medium
Team A w/o Mac: high if the team is well coordinated
Team B: higher than people think

[juliets]

I'm back and continuing to read sig.

linki w/TSP will read later

[nutella]

To be clear I think he’s a wolf, I just don’t think that’s why he’s a wolf

Distinctions like this are scummy.

Agreed. Also you said this right after saying "or he's town lolshrug"

Your teammate caught for the wrong reasons nanook??

[nutella]

I also think anyone hard pushing the “mac has given up, lol gottem” line should be under a close microscope tomorrow

I was saying gottem before he self voted though. I'm not trying to say that's a significant reason to think he's bad, I'm just saying it's consistent with him being bad which is already believed for other reasons.

[Dyslexicon]

OOooooOOooooOooOoOoooo HEAR MY GHOST THROUGHTS oooOOooOoOOOOOOooooooOO

Here's a plead you MUST READ

Please, please, please listen to me and take my post seriously. My credentials are as follows:
- Nanook 1.0 as top town read on D1 = confirmed.
- Radish and Sabie as connected teammates before any of the flipped = confirmed.
- I do not actually suck at this game.

I don't know why scum would want to Janitor me. Obviously I didn't kill myself and obviously I'm not with Radish/sabie and obviously I'm town. My role stays hidden, but that doesn't matter much. Good riddance to the Janitor kill. I 100% expected to be killed btw. What a predictable scum team.

---

OooooOOooOoOOOOOOooooo ACTUAL TAKES ORDERED BY THEME IN SPOILERS ooOOOooOoOOOOOOooooo


1. Sig is 100% on the Radish/Sabie team and he actually SCUM SLIPPED.

Spoiler: show

Remember when I said Sabie was 100% on the Radish team because duh, and she flipped as such?
Here's why Sig is on the same team (apart from what's already been brought up by Sloonei and others (good job!)):

- Sig reveals that his team tried to kill Mac on N1, but that the kill didn't go through.

Also food for thought that I'm workshoping:

N1 there was no kill and Sprityo/Dom started to pursue Mac more heavily. Now there were a few things floating around about that, but given some of the voters on his wagon and how Sabie flipped I think Team 1 tried to kill Mac and it didn't work since he has the one night kill protection. Which led to a push from some of the players on his wagon to flip him to gain civ credit.

The great thing here is that so many people on Radish's wagon had teammate compatibility with both Sabie/Radish.

So we flip Mac and he's mafia, next lynch is Sprityo who's one of the surviving Anti-Moniters and from there it's just the matter of finding the last one of them and then analyzing how people voted to save Mac. Given the last minute swing to stop Mac from being lynched I think his team moved and pushed him over so we'd wanna look at late voters to the Radish wagon. Which adds to my suspicion of Mac.

Sig is talking about his own team here because:

There is a civ that can't be nked and two protection roles, Aja and Lassie.

Yea, but I doubt they'd have targeted Mac.

I did think about the civ role, a fair amount. However, I think it's much more likely he's mafia.

Also to Epi, I do plan to finish my case, this phase just caught me at a bad time.

Alternatively to Mac,

I'd say Sprityo is a good lynch followed by an inactive/semi active role. Think a lurker who isn't doing much.

linki: Your back and forth with Dom yesterday, various other posts, your small dick comments, and your entire tone when discussing you.

Here's the actual slip, guys!

When SVS suggests that the no kill on N1 may have been for many reasons, Sig answers with the knowledge that Mac was the actual kill target.

Read it. Sig says he doubts the protective role would target Mac (so that couldn't be the reason why the kill failed.) And then Sig says that he considered that Mac could be the civ role, but that he thinks that Mac is just much more likely mafia (again revealing that Mac was targeted for a NK.)

Digest this.
Again, Sig reveals that he KNOWS THAT MAC WAS THE TARGET FOR THE KILL.

The only explanation is that Sig KNOWS that Mac was targeted for a NK. He would only know that if he was the one targeting him for a NK. This is why Sig is tunnelling Mac, with extra knowledge.

Sig is scum with Radish and Sabie.
Sig not being mentioned (except once) in Sabie's ISO is just icing on the cake. Same with Sig being hedgy about Radish on D1.

2. Mac is probably scum as well

Spoiler: show

Mac is reacting in pure self pres and no interest in finding scum. Sig's tunnelling of Mac supports Mac being scum.
I have one example:

Other than Dyslexicon dying, that was a good night post. I hope my idiocy didn’t help put a target on your back.

I’m not following the team compatibility here, and I need to try to go back and find some of it. Is it being suggested that when it was Mac vs Radish that it was trains on two people from the same team?

TMI on Dyslexicon as town.

This is a terrible deflection onto G-Man. Mac himself said I was the towniest person in the fucking game. Why shade G-Man for assuming the same? It's very obvious that I have a town role. This is bad bad bad deflection on a low hanging fruit like G-Man.

3. G-Man is actually town, and here's why.

Spoiler: show

His posting is not scum, the way he went after me, reconsidered and talks to me after I flip is not scum. I'm a little bit surprised and suspicious that some people has not picked up on this yet. Especially Jimmay I feel should be aware that G-Man is town. (Jimmay: Why? Me: Because I feel like you ignored important points that shows that G-Man is town.) [mention]tedxtr[/mention]

SVS looks good for sticking up for G-Man imo. Probably. Maybe some other people look good for it too.

I'm pretty sure that my read is right. He could even be a good protection candidate. I know some people have said G-Man looks like a Radish/Sabie teammate, but Sig is their teammate, and then somebody else. Bank it.

4. Why you should definitely lynch Sig/Some genuine advice for the last Anti-Monitor Scum Team member.

Spoiler: show

I believe we should get rid of Sig first because he is absolutely scum. This is where we have the leads.

If someone on the other scum team dies, THEN we can go after the other scum team. If we for example get a confirmation that Mac is scum, then it will be easier to hunt down Mac's teammates, and we can leave the last Anti-Monitor member alone for a bit.

But it should be the Anti-Monitor team's responsibility to blow the game open. Smoke out Radish/Sabie/Sig and the last person until we have an actual confirmed lead on the other team.

And to the Anti-Monitor team: You will definitely lose unless you blow the game open and go for the other team here with your NK.
If you NK town next night I'll say you're about 2% to win, the other scum team is about 50% to win and town 48% to win.
If you NK one of the other team you're about maybe 20 % to win (because town will hunt the other team which is more pressing, which is much better) and the other team is about 30 % to win and town about 50 % to win.

I know this is a lot, but please someone read it and take this further. I can't respond much to all questions and comments. I hope I explained this well. I will post later with more reads and thoughts on who I think the last Radish/Sabie/Sig teammate is. I need to go through some ISO's first.

---

Short version:
- Sig scum slipped and should be lynched.
- Mac is very likely on the opposite mafia team than Sig, but it's not confirmed.
- We should go after the Anti-Monitor team until we have a confirmed flip on the other side. Smoke them out.

OOOooOoOooOOOOooOooOoOoOGHOSTSOUNDSOooOoOOOOoOoOoOOoOOOGHOSToOOOOOoOOoOOAVENGEMEOOOooOOoO

[nutella]

Yaaaasssssss juicy stuff ghostdizzy!!! Excellent takes.

[nutella]

I still want to weaken both teams, especially with the confirmation that the kill is handed down, but dizzy has good points about sig and the antimonitor team there. So..... Yeah, sure. [VOTE: sig] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

To clarify, Dyz was killed on N2 by the Master's Team. The Antimonitor's team contained Sabie and Radishes. So yeah, it's basically impossible that Dyz was a wolf. Not sure if Nanook2 saying to ignore Dyz is scummy or just a derp.

[mention]sig[/mention] why did you think Mac was the kill target? I understand the idea that the town wouldn't protect Mac so he's scum if he was shot but why do you think he was shot?

[nutella]

For the record though, sloonei is absolutely mac's teammate idk why y'all are sleeping on that fact.

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

[speedchuck]

For the record though, sloonei is absolutely mac's teammate idk why y'all are sleeping on that fact.

TonyStarkPrime

Literally first I've heard of this.

(but if he is don't you think we should lynch Mac first? :P)

[nutella]

For the record though, sloonei is absolutely mac's teammate idk why y'all are sleeping on that fact.

TonyStarkPrime

Literally first I've heard of this.

(but if he is don't you think we should lynch Mac first? :P)

I mean, yes? I do want to lynch mac first.

But maybe sig first like dizzy says because dizzy has ascended to godhood and everything they say is gospel.

[TonyStarkPrime]

For the record though, sloonei is absolutely mac's teammate idk why y'all are sleeping on that fact.

TonyStarkPrime

I strongly agree with this notion.

[TonyStarkPrime]

For the record though, sloonei is absolutely mac's teammate idk why y'all are sleeping on that fact.

TonyStarkPrime

I strongly agree with this notion.

I think

[S~V~S]

Thank you amazing deceased person! You tied it all together really nicely, I knew the whole thing sounded way too specific, like 3-4 different things had to happen for it to work out.

I would still like to wait to hear what sig has to say about all of this. I also want to hear his answer to why he went after Nanook rather than Radishes during Baddiegate.

As I said I will not be around much tonight, so I am going to drop a “for now” vote onto sprit, I think his Nanook vote was sooo bad, and his response to the suspish was underwhelming. But moving to sig, pending his responses, is definitely do-able.

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

linki, I suck at this game cause all my top town reads are looking bad, and my bad suspects are looking town lolol.

[nutella]

Uh..?

[nutella]

I'm p confused by that svs post ngl

[S~V~S]

Uh what? Temp vote on my second suspect until sig answers questions.

[S~V~S]

...which I clearly said in the post?

[nutella]

Well ok. It just really sounded like you were going along with dizzy but I guess you're not ready to commit

[Michelle]

Michelle: Michelle has what I would consider to be a normal post count by day 3, which makes this easier for me. Early Radishes vote, minor NAI derp, makes some reads against Colin. I think the TMI argument is questionable, but it’s something.
Day 2, after voting Radishes Day 1, votes Turnip. Doesn’t change vote. Susticious. Spends one of few posts Day 2 calling out Mac though, which has to be a good sign. Makes some posts Night 2 saying basically “oh let’s lynch bad guys who are connected to Radish maybe” which is meh. Overall, there are some good posts, but nothing I can glean much information from without better links.
Team A: Meh
Team B w/ Mac: Meh
Team B w/o Mac: Meh

Michelle, come give thoughts?

I will give thoughts tomorow morning, I have busy RL but I don't want to complain, and I have a kind of worst mood because I had a trip planned who is canceled because of Corona (plane tickets and so many dreams are now on the recicle bin).
My good posts come from my civvy heart but my lack of time makes the content insufficient. I get this
I will be back in 8-9 hours

[S~V~S]

Well ok. It just really sounded like you were going along with dizzy but I guess you're not ready to commit

I totally think Dizzy is right; but I want to give sig the courtesy of letting him reply to my question about radishes. I had already voice my sprit suspish yesterday, so it is not news to him.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

To clarify, Dyz was killed on N2 by the Master's Team. The Antimonitor's team contained Sabie and Radishes. So yeah, it's basically impossible that Dyz was a wolf. Not sure if Nanook2 saying to ignore Dyz is scummy or just a derp.

@sig why did you think Mac was the kill target? I understand the idea that the town wouldn't protect Mac so he's scum if he was shot but why do you think he was shot?

Not impossible, just unlikely. She could also be 3p

Given her ghost post tho I’m willing to pretend she’s town

[nutella]

I feel pretty meh on sprit though. I don't think his nanook vote was nearly as bad as you seem to think, but I think his Mac vote was really bad.

[juliets]

There is a civ that can't be nked and two protection roles, Aja and Lassie.

Yea, but I doubt they'd have targeted Mac.

I did think about the civ role, a fair amount. However, I think it's much more likely he's mafia.

Also to Epi, I do plan to finish my case, this phase just caught me at a bad time.

Alternatively to Mac,

I'd say Sprityo is a good lynch followed by an inactive/semi active role. Think a lurker who isn't doing much.

linki: Your back and forth with Dom yesterday, various other posts, your small dick comments, and your entire tone when discussing you.

Here's the actual slip, guys!

When SVS suggests that the no kill on N1 may have been for many reasons, Sig answers with the knowledge that Mac was the actual kill target.

Read it. Sig says he doubts the protective role would target Mac (so that couldn't be the reason why the kill failed.) And then Sig says that he considered that Mac could be the civ role, but that he thinks that Mac is just much more likely mafia (again revealing that Mac was targeted for a NK.)

Digest this.
Again, Sig reveals that he KNOWS THAT MAC WAS THE TARGET FOR THE KILL.

The only explanation is that Sig KNOWS that Mac was targeted for a NK. He would only know that if he was the one targeting him for a NK. This is why Sig is tunnelling Mac, with extra knowledge.

Sig is scum with Radish and Sabie.
Sig not being mentioned (except once) in Sabie's ISO is just icing on the cake. Same with Sig being hedgy about Radish on D1.

I stopped reading sig for a few minutes and saw this post. I think it is right on target. Nice work [mention]Dyslexicon[/mention]! To me this is conclusive but I won't vote yet in case there is some fatal flaw that stupid me has overlooked.

Also, this doesn't mean that Mac is town, as Dizzy says. sig's theory could still be right though I will say in reading sig's ISO it didn't seem like he talked about Mac as much as he talked about Sprityo and someone else (slips my mind at the moment who) prior to his getting reduced to one post. The theory about Mac targeting Dizzy though because he was probably going to be lynched still holds for me plus there are other things that people have noted about Mac.

linkis

[S~V~S]

I feel pretty meh on sprit though. I don't think his nanook vote was nearly as bad as you seem to think, but I think his Mac vote was really bad.

I'm metagaming a bit here, I find it very unlikely that Nanook came back bad because I think a bad team would have recruited a replacement if the null role was bad between Monday when the roles went out and Friday when Nanook came in. I think his "OMG Nanook voted for Colin" outrage was fauxrage. I hated that vote tbh.

[nutella]

Dizzy didn't say mac was town at all lmao?

[speedchuck]

I can [VOTE: Sig] aubergine for sure, with Mac on the back burner.

[juliets]

Dizzy didn't say mac was town at all lmao?

I looked back at my sentence structure and I can see why you are seeing that. I mean't "As Dizzy pointed out, this doesn't mean Mac is town."

[nutella]

I can [VOTE: Sig] aubergine for sure, with Mac on the back burner.

You didn't

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm gonna be so annoyed if Sig is scum. Like that post about Epi earlier only moreso.

[nutella]

Dizzy didn't say mac was town at all lmao?

I looked back at my sentence structure and I can see why you are seeing that. I mean't "As Dizzy pointed out, this doesn't mean Mac is town."

Oh lol syntactic ambiguity. It got svs earlier too

[Jackofhearts2005]

And if we lynch Sig and he flips town, I get to decide tomorrow's lynch okay?

[nutella]

I'm gonna be so annoyed if Sig is scum. Like that post about Epi earlier only moreso.

You seem out of touch. Ok boomer. Get with the times. Sig is bad, it's what all the cool kids know.

[nutella]

And if we lynch Sig and he flips town, I get to decide tomorrow's lynch okay?

Ok boomer.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And if we lynch Sig and he flips town, I get to decide tomorrow's lynch okay?

What am I saying?

If we lynch Sig and he flips town, we have a road map anyhow.

[juliets]

I don't see anyone pointing out a flaw in Dizzy's logic so I'm voting. Normally I would wait to hear from sig but this looks black and white to me. I can't think of an explanation that would make this go away.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm gonna be so annoyed if Sig is scum. Like that post about Epi earlier only moreso.

You seem out of touch. Ok boomer. Get with the times. Sig is bad, it's what all the cool kids know.

Like the whole "I bet Mac got shot and is bulletproof" thing is cancer.

It's more the idea that I've had people say I'm teamed with Radishes and if Sig really is an antimonitor scum player, people are going to say I'm tied with him too and it'll be annoying.

[nutella]

I'm gonna be so annoyed if Sig is scum. Like that post about Epi earlier only moreso.

You seem out of touch. Ok boomer. Get with the times. Sig is bad, it's what all the cool kids know.

Like the whole "I bet Mac got shot and is bulletproof" thing is cancer.

It's more the idea that I've had people say I'm teamed with Radishes and if Sig really is an antimonitor scum player, people are going to say I'm tied with him too and it'll be annoying.

.....no? Why are you making this about you lol

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm gonna be so annoyed if Sig is scum. Like that post about Epi earlier only moreso.

You seem out of touch. Ok boomer. Get with the times. Sig is bad, it's what all the cool kids know.

Like the whole "I bet Mac got shot and is bulletproof" thing is cancer.

It's more the idea that I've had people say I'm teamed with Radishes and if Sig really is an antimonitor scum player, people are going to say I'm tied with him too and it'll be annoying.

.....no? Why are you making this about you lol

Everything is about me. For all I know, my life is the Truman Show.

[sprityo]

haha okay guys, jokes over

time to lynch mac

come on

[sig]

Don't have much time right now just popping in, but that's very lame there was no night kill, which added into my idea.

Also trying to say I knew since I was on team is a cornering move especially in a game with no infodumping.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Loooooooool.

[speedchuck]

I can [VOTE: Sig] aubergine for sure, with Mac on the back burner.

You didn't

Could have sworn I did.

[sig]

This is a multifacted thing here. Sab started to pursue Mac more, I think that read was genuine that only happened after N1.

My read was based off the very simply fact of me being silenced and his play, the entire Kill thing was a thrown in point which I said it was.

Very weak reasoning took a tiny section of what I said and that's it.

[sig]

I don't see anyone pointing out a flaw in Dizzy's logic so I'm voting. Normally I would wait to hear from sig but this looks black and white to me. I can't think of an explanation that would make this go away.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

Can't think of any explanation.......But doesn't bother to finish ISO.

Again mac teammates rushing onto another wagon.

[sig]

Literally just lol, so dumb can't pull up quotes and all right now but.

1. My main point on Mac has nothing to do with Nightkill.
2. It was a logical conclusion to the movement of other players and how much they went after him. Plus the fact the janitor kill was used. To say this is a flip which proves I'm bad, yet ignore the slip I called out, except to make me look worse, on Radish is just dumb.

Not to mention again, how many info roles and items are there?

But, sure the only possible solution to this assuming it wasn't just my thoughts is I must be teammates and made such an obvious thing. On someone who've I been going after since N1 and almost all of D2. But decided to just mention that now?

The gaps in logic are wide here.

[Jackofhearts2005]

There's no silencer mechanic.

There's the time freeze bomb thing but that didn't happen (right?) and One Punch Man can limit a player to 1 post the following day. So that kinda confirms Sig as not part of the Master mafia but he's being lynched for people thinking he's in the other mafia anyway.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm not satisfied with that explanation.

Keep in mind votes are not that close and the counterwagon's flip is going to make you look worse if he's scum.

[S~V~S]

Everyone who suspects you is a Mac teammate, sig? Why did you go for Nanook rather than Radishes, the one supposed to have slipped, during Baddiegate?

Don't have much time right now just popping in, but that's very lame there was no night kill, which added into my idea.

Also trying to say I knew since I was on team is a cornering move especially in a game with no infodumping.

Who said it was info? You?

Linki [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] self targeting is allowed, yes? But yeah.

[nutella]

Literally just lol, so dumb can't pull up quotes and all right now but.

1. My main point on Mac has nothing to do with Nightkill.
2. It was a logical conclusion to the movement of other players and how much they went after him. Plus the fact the janitor kill was used. To say this is a flip which proves I'm bad, yet ignore the slip I called out, except to make me look worse, on Radish is just dumb.

Not to mention again, how many info roles and items are there?

But, sure the only possible solution to this assuming it wasn't just my thoughts is I must be teammates and made such an obvious thing. On someone who've I been going after since N1 and almost all of D2. But decided to just mention that now?

The gaps in logic are wide here.

"Hurr durr conveniently there are items and secrets so I can say there's potential loopholes and pretend I don't know stuff"

Nah this doesn't do it for me. You're floundering.