Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [GAME OVER]

[Sloonei]

Civilians who think I am on Mac's team:

Build a team of three among living players that includes me and then reconcile that with your general reads.

I'm not your guy.

Civilians who think I am on sig's team:

If I had my way he'd have been dead on Day 3 before the Inception shenanigans even happened.

I'm not your guy.

Who is the anti-monitor?

Who cares? He's alone. The three player team is the threat.

I care what name Jay proposes as the alternative.

Also the anti-monitor becomes a bigger threat in a late-game scenario. A player with -2 votes is an almost impossible lynch when the numbers start to dwindle, even if they're alone.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

ted's question is valid one. The best evidence that I am not a Master teamer is that I don't fit with anyone else in this damn poll.

For serious

Sloonei and GMan.

Is that exactly the team? I think you're at best 1 out of 3 there.

[tedxtr]

Shit, Epi's a fucking hard read. Other than tone and his push on me, I don't really see anything to town read him for. I did like that he was constantly getting back at the slots that he was questioning, it maintains some level of genuine hunting that has proven consistent even up to this day phase, but I still feel like he lacks something that he didn't have from our other games...

[Jackofhearts2005]

ted's question is valid one. The best evidence that I am not a Master teamer is that I don't fit with anyone else in this damn poll.

For serious

Sloonei and GMan.

Is that exactly the team? I think you're at best 1 out of 3 there.

Guess we'll find out.

[tedxtr]

Jack, vote G-man and if i'm wrong i'm giving you my face masks

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jack, vote G-man and if i'm wrong i'm giving you my face masks

I don't want your face masks. I want to skewer Jay like I skewered Mac.

[tedxtr]

jay ain't it chief

[Michelle]

How much time is until Eod? I see a change in the hour but maybe it's just me messing the hours setting.

It's a little over 29 hours from now.

Thanks, that means I can play in the morning. I need to read very much to have a base for the vote more than the gut read I have now.

Sunday was a day in family, we have been told to stay home to not help coronavirus to spread and being all day home I would usually have a good mafia day if I were home alone
Is 11 pm, see you in the morning!

[juliets]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Regarding the questions I asked Epi in my reading of him as maybe scum:

- his lack of being around and posting like he used to and why (he gave me a long answer that included his schedule)

- his reason for changing his read on Jack from scum to town (he said because Jack if bad would have made up horseshit reasons for reading Epi as scum and Jack is not trying to trick him. He also said his read on Jack has only strengthened)

- his reason for reading ted as town (said his posts don't look reckless and he doesn't see an agenda and his response to Epi on an issue didn't sound manufactured)

- the reason he changed his vote to Nanook and then back to Jay (he said it was "last night" so probably the bottle of merlot and the tenth beer - Epi has been known to put away a few and do some rather odd things in the later evening (sorry Epi)

- a question as to whether I misread his read of sig which he made a joke about in his response but I let that go.

Here was the summary of my post back to Epi after he answered my post. Note the "other reason" that I had to look back for is also in this paragraph i.e., Dom read Epi as town.

"You ask if I would change my opinion on you if you said I did misread you about sig, lol. I may change my mind about you anyway because you patiently answered my questions and your answers are credible, you didn't just blow me off. Also, my top town read sees you as town and says it would take serious convincing to make him think otherwise and I respect that opinion. I think he knows you pretty well. (Also, thank you @Dom for answering my question.)"

I have to leave the thread for a bit but will respond to any questions when I return.

[Sloonei]

I have one specific memory that sticks out to me when I think of Jay's handling of sig:

Spoiler: show

I have major deadlines to honor, and there's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with this right now. I'm going to extract myself for the time being and just pop in for a look when I can. I think things are going swimmingly, so y'all carry on. If you want my take on something, @ me and ideally link me to something. I will try to get to it. Otherwise I will observe for myself.

I compared our results and we both said sig looks like a compatible Radishes teammate. Gimme a quick take on that.

It warrants exploration. "Looks like a civilian at face value" is worth less in a game where everyone can legitimately hunt. I found his progression on Radish convoluted. sig go look at each of our reviews and say your piece

After we both dug into radishes and came up with negative looks on sig, I prodded Jay to talk about this new development. His response was pretty tame and by-the-script. Beep boop, as nutella would say.

Even though no one seems to care about my "Jay is the anti-monitor" theory.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I have one specific memory that sticks out to me when I think of Jay's handling of sig:

Spoiler: show

I have major deadlines to honor, and there's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with this right now. I'm going to extract myself for the time being and just pop in for a look when I can. I think things are going swimmingly, so y'all carry on. If you want my take on something, @ me and ideally link me to something. I will try to get to it. Otherwise I will observe for myself.

I compared our results and we both said sig looks like a compatible Radishes teammate. Gimme a quick take on that.

It warrants exploration. "Looks like a civilian at face value" is worth less in a game where everyone can legitimately hunt. I found his progression on Radish convoluted. sig go look at each of our reviews and say your piece

After we both dug into radishes and came up with negative looks on sig, I prodded Jay to talk about this new development. His response was pretty tame and by-the-script. Beep boop, as nutella would say.

Even though no one seems to care about my "Jay is the anti-monitor" theory.

The master team had to be pretty happy about it

[TonyStarkPrime]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

[Sloonei]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

Yesterday was the first day he was really mentioned as a serious candidate in a thread that included the entire active roster.

[TonyStarkPrime]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

Yesterday was the first day he was really mentioned as a serious candidate in a thread that included the entire active roster.

sure. And JJJ pushed him and voted for Colin anyways. We talked more about Speed than Colin but Colin ended up lynched.

[Sloonei]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

Yesterday was the first day he was really mentioned as a serious candidate in a thread that included the entire active roster.

sure. And JJJ pushed him and voted for Colin anyways. We talked more about Speed than Colin but Colin ended up lynched.

What's the best reason you can think of to town read speedchuck?

[TonyStarkPrime]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

Yesterday was the first day he was really mentioned as a serious candidate in a thread that included the entire active roster.

sure. And JJJ pushed him and voted for Colin anyways. We talked more about Speed than Colin but Colin ended up lynched.

What's the best reason you can think of to town read speedchuck?

Mislynch bait — universal scumread in appearance, no clear teammates. But jjj/ speed seems very possible

[JaggedJimmyJay]

After we both dug into radishes and came up with negative looks on sig, I prodded Jay to talk about this new development. His response was pretty tame and by-the-script. Beep boop, as nutella would say.

Even though no one seems to care about my "Jay is the anti-monitor" theory.

I was on my way out the door, and you asked for a quick take. I gave you a quick take. There was really little to say beyond "I agree, they're compatible".

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speed's treatment of me right now is a good indicator we're not mafia teammates.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

[mention]juliets[/mention] [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

G-Man on sig

Spoiler: show

Optimism would suggest that 1,200 posts by the halfway point of Day 1 means that we’ve stumbled upon some groundbreaking, decisive conclusions.

But I’m a realist.

Can anyone point me to the post on or about where the MR & nutella trains became the most compelling things going? If so, I promise to skim through tomorrow at lunch to see if I’m on board with either one.

I can point ya In the direction of a pretty nifty case agaisnt nanook.

Orly? If it’s so nifty, then why doesn’t he have any votes?

I'll be ISOing and laying things out about Mac again later, if everyone else doesn't pursue it then meh whatever.

G-man yea different teams.

Opposing teams because Saitama’s team killed on even nights. I see it now. In that case, lynching someone on the even-night team today would make for some interesting analysis of Day 2. Shucking and jiving on both sides could expose at least one more on each team if we’re lucky.

It seems I am very rusty,looking at my earlier GTH list, after reading last nights conversation, it sucks lolol.

I will redo one tonight, maybe doing in thread GTH reads might be a good exercise if lots of us are here?

@G-Man what are your thoughts on sig and Mac, and TSP and ted if you have caught up to last nights discussion?

Overreacting G-Man would pounce on the ‘ted is scum and using G-Man as an easy target’ line, but overreacting G-Man isn’t here right now Mrs. Torrence. I’m not familiar enough with ted’s content this game to read into it very far.

I have no opinion on TSP for similar reasons.

Regarding sig and Mac, it seems like people think they’re on opposite teams. The Mac train and Mac’s reactions to it are making me weary due to how long it’s been going on. I’m leaning pretty hard on the work of others when it comes to taking a stand on sig. Dyslexicon feels like sig is bad, and that’s good enough for me I think. But what does sig flipping civ tell us about anyone else? Similarly, what does Mac flipping baddie tell us about anyone else?

Also, are we assuming Mac is on the full team or the team with only two members left? I see references to Team A and Team B, bit help me start to wrap my brain around it. Which team do we think Mac is on and which team do we think sig is on? Sorry if this is out there already. Skimming is a bugger.

I’ll change my vote to Mac to keep things closer for now. I won’t likely be around much after 5:30 est.

@G-Man Mac is on the full remaining (Master) team, sig is on the Radish/Sabie (Anti-Monitor) team

Ok. That helps a little. I wouldn’t expect much teammate shenanigans if Mac is baddie and exposed like this. Sig’s hypothetical teammate is keeping quiet too. I think civs are going to make most, if not all of the noise through EoD.

~~~

sig on G-Man

Spoiler: show

Dizzy, G-man, Mac, Speed, Radish, and Juliet are my grey reads and people I plan to reread tomorrow.

Also a Pre-ISO (minus Michelle) breakdown of my thoughts.

Super duper Civ:
Sig

Civ Reads:
Epi: Playing within Civ meta, active.
SVS: Good tone and activity push. I like how she clarified her Radish Slip thing seemed very civvie.
tedxtr: This may change after I ISO him, but based off D0/early D1 liked him.


Civ Leans:
Sloonei
TH
sprityo
sabie12

Null:
juliets
G-Man
Dyslexicon
TonyStarkPrime
Dom

Need more posts:
Colins
Drag
Tranq


Mafia Lean:
nutella
MacDougall
Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay
Master Radishes
speedchuck
Michelle


Mafia:
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Tried to minimize my null reads. My Jack/Nutella reads are based off their back and forth so I really didn't know where to stick them, but they're both pinging me right now.

Optimism would suggest that 1,200 posts by the halfway point of Day 1 means that we’ve stumbled upon some groundbreaking, decisive conclusions.

But I’m a realist.

Can anyone point me to the post on or about where the MR & nutella trains became the most compelling things going? If so, I promise to skim through tomorrow at lunch to see if I’m on board with either one.

I can point ya In the direction of a pretty nifty case agaisnt nanook.

Orly? If it’s so nifty, then why doesn’t he have any votes?

Nobody's taking me seriously or are to busy with this Jack/Nutella thing

Okay, let’s do this! The secret portion of my role card says that I am the champion of this game. Sorry to cut this game so short, especially after all that time waiting through sign-ups, but I win. You can go home now.

Okay so, Gman super excited to play, making jokes ect. Buuuuut, his excitement here doesn't seem to correlate to game play.

Orange, aggedJimmyJay? I make three posts, and that’s enough to land me in orange instead of neutral gray?

In a way, I guess I see it, what with the diarrhea-of-the-mouth-inducing playstyle you and others prefer. You have offended me, sir, and now I intend to bury myself in the deepest red of your rainbow reads so that I may ignore your demands for more content.

This post smells bad.

Over the top? Yep. This was me needling Jay.

Hey I think G-man has decent odds at flipping scum by the way, anyone wanna talk about it?

Also, MR has been talked about by everyone early game, everyone threw jabs at him but he never got hard pushed so it makes me happier to see his wagon grow.

So was G-Man, but a much lower percentage.

Orange, JaggedJimmyJay? I make three posts, and that’s enough to land me in orange instead of neutral gray?

In a way, I guess I see it, what with the diarrhea-of-the-mouth-inducing playstyle you and others prefer. You have offended me, sir, and now I intend to bury myself in the deepest red of your rainbow reads so that I may ignore your demands for more content.

This post comes to mind as a scum post. I need to check if triple J commented anything on this because it's a horribad post

Outstanding work. You got me. I surrender.

I see being busy, I don't think he's using that as an excuse to lurk. However, the sarcasm here is pingy, definitely something I'm not a fan of.

G-Man good

could be turbup, what you see

Hes one of those civs who won't lose you the game but he may not win it for you either. He's the Ryan tannehil of civilians

Ouch. While not an incorrect assessment of my civvie sleuthing skills when I don’t have info gathering powers, as a Miami Dolphins fan, that comparison cuts deep.

Anyway, let’s talk about the roles, shall we? I see two roles that can ‘send orders’ to a civ. One is a civ role but the other is a baddie. On the one hand, there is potential for civs to become known to another civ. On the other hand, complying risks letting a baddie hijack your power.

Has anyone played with this kind of role mirrored in this way before? My gut says complying should probably be done based on how powerful a player thinks their role is. Thoughts?

I think someone else touched on this, but the idea Gman choices to do this right now is odd. At the very least I'd think he'd wanna talk about EOD type stuff.



SO Overall not many posts by Gman, out of his posts alot are fluffy stuff. Did seem excited to play and all, but haven't done much but some minor mechanic talk. Overall not a fan of his response to Ted's poke or what he's decided to talk about.

So he'll be going from Null to Mafia Lean: I'd like a read lists soon, from him soon,but could place my vote here tomorrow.

Sig


Dom
Epignosis
Jackofhearts2005



NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME 2.0
Sloonei
tedxtr
JaggedJimmyJay
juliets
TonyStarkPrime
Michelle



Dragomir
Tranq


Dyslexicon
ColinIsCool
Turnip Head
S~V~S
speedchuck


G-Man
MacDougall
sprityo
sabie12

Sweet result.

Every wagon rises and falls but mine. I wonder why.

Yours fell midday. Weird.

It didn't fall at all. Nobody ever peeled off me to vote somewhere else that didn't end up voting for me. The MR wagon just overtook it.

Nah it feel off a bit, was second or third, when some of us from both wagons switched to G-man. By end of day it was back up thought.

I'll be ISOing and laying things out about Mac again later, if everyone else doesn't pursue it then meh whatever.

G-man yea different teams.

Overall, I’d rather not hear Mac ranting against the world for another day. Plus, if he’s on the team that has a full roster right now, then we should pare them back a little. Don’t want them getting overconfident.

And sig isn't mafia*

On my way to a long meeting in about an hour. I have very little time to make a choice here. I’m more wary of Sloonei than Jay, but I feel that concern. He’s different this game but I can’t tell if it’s just grad school distraction. Sig is a sure bet, but I feel the concern about watering down his team too much and how that might hurt our analysis of lynch wagons. Then again, his teammate is unlikely to stick his/her neck out for sig and sig is probably trying very hard not to make his teammate stand out. I don’t know how much more we’re going to learn about Team Anti-Monitor with that dynamic in play.

I dropped a few hints some real and some fake about my teammate in this and the othet thread since ppl started after me.

I thought it would be amusing kinda bummed nobody's picked up on it

Also, his one-post "silence" post

~~~

G-Man's own words don't leave much to be desired. I highlighted a portion that meandered around to nowhere; it's not my favorite. However, the stuff here that speaks to me most comes from sig's progression on G-Man. He started with the generic vagueries like "I want to read him" and placing him in a middling reads list tier. sig eventually cast suspicion upon G-Man though, first with a case and then with a rainbow list in which G-Man was bottom-tier red (alongside sabie). WIFOM aside given that placement, the case sig built is not an impressive one. It looks more to me like someone trying to spam out a case to generate a not-my-team lynch, which reflects favorably upon G-Man.

Compatibility: Minor

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck on sig

Spoiler: show

So Jack backing down on Nutella is meh for a few reasons.

1. He was so confident and into it, to suddenly 180 just doesn't look good for either of them.
2. *Adjusts tin foil hat* What's the chance they're on the same team? Didn't expect this to happen and it blew out of proportion or vice verse Jack is just mafia and did this without expecting results. However, he knew if Nutella was flipped partly due to his push he'd be next.
3. I don't think the progression of "I can read Nutella" to I want to give her more time, but still isn't sure seems very genuine.
4. Nutella's reaction to Jack and her tone were both two things I really didn't like, that doesn't change with Jack pulling his suspicion of her.

I also feel like if we all move off Nutella, what's to stop this from being Jack vs Nutella on Day 2 or 3 when he does the same thing? The door is definitely still open.

Nah.

Point number one is valid, which is why Jack wouldn't do it.
Point number two includes a tinfoil hat, so I'll let it stand with that caveat.
Points number three and four are fair enough.

The last thing is just a terrible reason to lynch someone though holy crap. I suss.

Also that lynch post was perfect. Salutations to you nanook.

I think this lynch result is a good look for Jack.

If he hadn't have backpedaled I'd agree. His post flip posts also read meh to me.

Why do you think he looks good from it.

He was certain he wasn't seeing good nutella, enough to boldly sing it into the streets.
Then he wasn't so certain he was seeing bad nutella, later.

Jack is AU me, and it seems like the way I'd coincidentally handle something like that while being 100% correct.

I don't have anything firm here, though. On a whim, it's like Jack was sorta right and had no way of concretely knowing that, and it feels neat.

Of those names, I’m not sure one in particular stands out. I think Sig’s vote was the most egregious, but his macro play of all those names has been the greenest. At the moment I’m not entirely sure where I’d place a vote (and obviously can’t anyway), but GTH I’d say Sabie. Also not a fan of Mac’s play on this – inconsistent and never landed on the wagon or, conversely, showed progression away from it. Just blew on the sparks a bit.

I dunno, I was suspicious of Sig for a reason I think. Let me look back.

Ah, yes, it was his crappity crap reasons for still wanting to lynch nutella after Jack recanted. He overcompenisated for his position by throwing a bunch of bad reasons in with the good.

Of those names, I’m not sure one in particular stands out. I think Sig’s vote was the most egregious, but his macro play of all those names has been the greenest. At the moment I’m not entirely sure where I’d place a vote (and obviously can’t anyway), but GTH I’d say Sabie. Also not a fan of Mac’s play on this – inconsistent and never landed on the wagon or, conversely, showed progression away from it. Just blew on the sparks a bit.

I dunno, I was suspicious of Sig for a reason I think. Let me look back.

Ah, yes, it was his crappity crap reasons for still wanting to lynch nutella after Jack recanted. He overcompenisated for his position by throwing a bunch of bad reasons in with the good.

1. Reason wasnt crappy
2. Was laying out my thought process.

It would be imo so much worse to instantly switch off since Jack changed his mind, especially since I didnt base my vote solely off his read and two she wasn't a civ?

Not to mention I stated a few times she wasnt my top lynch which Is why I switched off once things evened our a bit.

Some of your reasons were crappy. And you had some perfectly good reasons. Overcompensating to justify staying on nutella. Meh. Minor sus.

I have a question for the thread that I just want to make sure gets asked before we get too absorbed in interactive analyses: who are the most suspicious players independent of Radishes?

I’m gonna be out for the day. Continue hunting for both teams, y’all.

Mac
Sprityo
Dizzy

Last I checked, Dizzy was locktown. What's up?

I've been saying he may be scum for awhie. Why locked town?

also I don't have like a real case case on him. Mainly tone/yesterday's lynch actions which were odd.

Lock might be a strong word, but Dizzy is one of my top town reads. Tossing Dizzy up as a most suspicious character without an actual case is worse than what I'm doing.

Which is putting them up as a top townread without an actual case.

I would, right now, vote sig, TH, Mac, and anyone who has appealed to emotion. I would murder the emotion right out of this game.

Mac is self voting? Idgi. Does anyone remember him doing this before in a game?

Not sure.

I mean, Sig apparently told him to do so this game. So we should lynch Sig for suggesting it as well.

I can [VOTE: Sig] aubergine for sure, with Mac on the back burner.

Why is everybody up sig's ass? Holy shit.

It's roomy.

math is wonderful

what TSP is doing is not mathematics. : (

It is. It’s just the kind of math townies don’t like to listen to, along with logic like “even if I am scum....”

Townies generally want to vote for the player they suspect the most, which is Sig, not the player who is most likely to flip mafia, which is Mac.

It doesn’t really matter because we’re probably lynching them both and they’re probably both flipping mafia but

Tony’s logic is sound.

Lynch Sig and he flips wolf -> lynch Mac
Lynch Sig and he flips town -> lynch Mac
Lynch Mac and he flips bulletproof wolf -> lynch Sig
Lynch Mac and he flips town -> a decent chunk of the Sig case falls away -> maybe don’t lynch Sig.

Logically, mathematically, that makes Mac the best lynch.

Realistically, people suspect Sig the most and Sig will be lynched today. That’s of course fine because there’s good reason for that suspicion. We just need to follow up on Mac tomorrow, especially because he’ll have three teammates running interference and I’m betting we’ll see some new cases starting up on townies tomorrow.

I thought the Sig case was more predicated on his knowledge of the nightkill, not of the alignment he supposed for Mac. That would make Sig's slip irrelevant to Mac's alignment, if his team just got it wrong?

Or did I miss case development overnight?

I've had a suspicion of Sig since D1, before the whole slip biz. I really don't care much whether he or Mac get sacked first.

But we need it to be more than that.

Michelle? speedchuck?

What?

we were looking for people to join the sig wagon for mechanical reasons.

I'm pressed for time. I'd like more than 'mechanical reasons' as an explanation.

but [VOTE: Sig] aubergine

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

No, he is exactly who sig thought he was.

Then why isn't everyone like 'ltnch sig immediately'

No no, this works. Jack is right, I mistook Sig and Dizzy as talking about mac AS anti-monitor. Dizzy's most recent posts clear that up.

Skiiiimiiiing is silly.

Why do people want to lynch Jack for being logical about the lynch order?

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

You parse that by lynching Jack.

I completely missed the 'why' there. I know you suspect him, but how does he connect to this? Or is that independent?

Jack is on the sabie / Radises team.

What manner of civilian preemptively calls out anyone who might make cases against other people when "we're supposed to be lynching Mac." He accused anyone who might on Day 4 accuse anyone else as defending Mac.

That's because he's on the other bad team. The one with sabie and Radishes.

And sig is not?

Or do you propose Jack and Sig w/w?

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

You parse that by lynching Jack.

I completely missed the 'why' there. I know you suspect him, but how does he connect to this? Or is that independent?

Jack is on the sabie / Radises team.

What manner of civilian preemptively calls out anyone who might make cases against other people when "we're supposed to be lynching Mac." He accused anyone who might on Day 4 accuse anyone else as defending Mac.

That's because he's on the other bad team. The one with sabie and Radishes.

And sig is not?

Or do you propose Jack and Sig w/w?

I condemned Jack based on sabie stuff. I can link you if need be.

Then he preemptively calls anybody who makes cases against anyone after sig is dead teammates of Mac. That's horseshit. Jack is not a civilian. Lynch his ass.

Can we do it after Sig?

I understand your position on Jack now but you didn't actually answer my questions there.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

This is actually a terrible look for Speed.

I'm not concerned about that. I've kept up with the game enough to think Mac was going to flip Anti-Monitor. I was surprised to see Saitama.

Saitama is exactly the role sig said he thought Mac was though back on d2 and the one that makes sense with all the theories. But ok.

Yea it reeks for speed honestly. I've been going after this and specifically this role forever.

And you expect me to have read any of those posts... why?

I skimmed Dizzy's post, then voted. After the lynch, I saw Sloonei and Juliets having a conversation like this:

"Sloonei is still a prime suspect."
"I don't get it, why?"

And I'm like WTF did something not go as planned? Mac seems to have flipped scum. What's going on?

So I asked.

I want someone now to make the case for Sig as town.
Is anyone doing that? Besides Sig?

I am. Apparently. Jack said I was.

My post got deleted by stupid internet twice so I'm gonna be brief. Looking at the sigslip progression.

sig & sprityo vs. mac

it's actually like the culmination of a several year arc when you think about it

Where the two brave heroes finally defeat the evil mastermind.

Or the one brave hero (sig) teams up with the lesser of two evils to defeat the more powerful evil overlord.

Sig has been going after Mac for a while.

@sig you saw my post, please can you explain how this night result proves any specific person bad?

I don't know what any of you are talking about.

Linki @ nutella I did read it if I don't know what a janitor is that doesn't help me lol

A combination of the last two nights plus his general tone/other things I touched on N1.

So here's how it went down.

N1 I made posts about Mac I was then given one post for 2 day. Which is Satima's power. I think Mac/his team was the most likely to use this on me given whom I was calling out mainly him.

linki: I see people already answered.

Sig begins with the assumption that a Saitama on Mac's team is targeting him, because who else would target him based on his posts? This is not a horrible assumption to make, especially with him already scum-reading Mac strongly.

Also food for thought that I'm workshoping:

N1 there was no kill and Sprityo/Dom started to pursue Mac more heavily. Now there were a few things floating around about that, but given some of the voters on his wagon and how Sabie flipped I think Team 1 tried to kill Mac and it didn't work since he has the one night kill protection. Which led to a push from some of the players on his wagon to flip him to gain civ credit.

The great thing here is that so many people on Radish's wagon had teammate compatibility with both Sabie/Radish.

So we flip Mac and he's mafia, next lynch is Sprityo who's one of the surviving Anti-Moniters and from there it's just the matter of finding the last one of them and then analyzing how people voted to save Mac. Given the last minute swing to stop Mac from being lynched I think his team moved and pushed him over so we'd wanna look at late voters to the Radish wagon. Which adds to my suspicion of Mac.

In comes the game theorizing. Sig seems excited to build on his Mac theory. He does so based on the already-revealed mafia and the reaction of some players (Sprityo) after the failed nightkill. Note that this builds on the assumption that Mac is on Saitama's team, pinpointing Mac AS Saitama. This isn't coming out of the blue, Sig is worldbuilding around assumptions. It's almost tinfoil at this point, but I can sorta see it. There aren't that many nightkill protections in this game.

@sig you saw my post, please can you explain how this night result proves any specific person bad?

I don't know what any of you are talking about.

Linki @ nutella I did read it if I don't know what a janitor is that doesn't help me lol

A combination of the last two nights plus his general tone/other things I touched on N1.

So here's how it went down.

N1 I made posts about Mac I was then given one post for 2 day. Which is Satima's power. I think Mac/his team was the most likely to use this on me given whom I was calling out mainly him.

linki: I see people already answered.

Mr. TunnelMac, I was not here on night 1 at all. I didn't even know that you were suspicious of me.

That's a nothing argument all the way.


There is no way to p[rove or since you have a team of 3 more they weren't here.


Really and this is probably the reason why Mac was so salty about it last phase. He could've had nothing to do with this at all, it could've been his teammates decisions and I just linked him to it vs them.

Either way Mac is mafia take it to the bank.

Sig is certain of Mac's mafia-ness and that Mac's team used Mac's power to target him. That's the crux of his argument.

There is a civ that can't be nked and two protection roles, Aja and Lassie.

Yea, but I doubt they'd have targeted Mac.

I did think about the civ role, a fair amount. However, I think it's much more likely he's mafia.

Also to Epi, I do plan to finish my case, this phase just caught me at a bad time.

Alternatively to Mac,

I'd say Sprityo is a good lynch followed by an inactive/semi active role. Think a lurker who isn't doing much.

linki: Your back and forth with Dom yesterday, various other posts, your small dick comments, and your entire tone when discussing you.

SVS's post here doesn't quote Sig, but is a direct response to the theory post in the context of the thread. Sig responds with the same realization I had toward Jack a bit ago.
No protection would target Mac.
This post wasn't built on the knowledge that Mac was targeted and discounting that Aja and Lassie could have stopped the kill. Sig was specifically bolstering his theory against the idea that, SPECIFICALLY, Mac survived for some other reason. Sig is deep in theory-world here, and his response makes assumptions that could make sense in that theory world, given his educated guess that Mac is Saitama-adjacent.

This last post looks not-great out of context. In context, in the mindset and theory-building mode that sig is in, I can see it happening. Partly because I made a post that was almost exactly the same:

His knowledge of the nightkill is “I think the mafia shot Mac and he’s the bulletproof guy in the Master mafia.”

So if we’re to read “I think” as “I know” then the chances of Mac also being scum skyrockets.

But there's only one part of that he CAN know, right? Surely there are town roles that can stop a kill?

...

But nobody would have protected Mac. Oh. Lol.

Yeah I could lynch Mac first. [VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I can, in fact, see a world where Sig is town. That's not a read. I'm only saying the slip is not a 100% slam dunk. I scumread sig for other reasons, as stated earlier in the thread.

I think this is important to be said. You might think me wrong, but I think in the mental space sig was in, his post could make sense. It depends on how deep in the theory tunnel (the CORRECT theory tunnel) he was.
Or he's scum and believed that most people would interpret his infodump in the way I just have. He's sitting at his desk screaming 'I set up a logical progression for a town mindset, you idiots! Don't lynch me for that!'

I see you sig. I see these posts, and follow your mindset. I still will probably vote you tomorrow. Cheers.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

You parse that by lynching Jack.

I completely missed the 'why' there. I know you suspect him, but how does he connect to this? Or is that independent?

Jack is on the sabie / Radises team.

What manner of civilian preemptively calls out anyone who might make cases against other people when "we're supposed to be lynching Mac." He accused anyone who might on Day 4 accuse anyone else as defending Mac.

That's because he's on the other bad team. The one with sabie and Radishes.

And sig is not?

Or do you propose Jack and Sig w/w?

The highlighted are the problems I've had with your posts, Speed. These look like "Okay, great. We lynched Mac. Now let's look elsewhere instead of lynching sig."

One of those posts is based on a misunderstanding of Sloonei/Juliets, and me trying to clear it up. The other is me trying to get Epi to clarify whether he's completely ignoring sig. Given the context of that second post, I'm actually bringing Sig back into a conversation where Epi seemed to be ignoring him.

Doing the opposite of what you said.

Occam's razor still shaves sig's beard.

~~~

sig on speedchuck

Spoiler: show

Dizzy, G-man, Mac, Speed, Radish, and Juliet are my grey reads and people I plan to reread tomorrow.

So Jack backing down on Nutella is meh for a few reasons.

1. He was so confident and into it, to suddenly 180 just doesn't look good for either of them.
2. *Adjusts tin foil hat* What's the chance they're on the same team? Didn't expect this to happen and it blew out of proportion or vice verse Jack is just mafia and did this without expecting results. However, he knew if Nutella was flipped partly due to his push he'd be next.
3. I don't think the progression of "I can read Nutella" to I want to give her more time, but still isn't sure seems very genuine.
4. Nutella's reaction to Jack and her tone were both two things I really didn't like, that doesn't change with Jack pulling his suspicion of her.

I also feel like if we all move off Nutella, what's to stop this from being Jack vs Nutella on Day 2 or 3 when he does the same thing? The door is definitely still open.

Nah.

Point number one is valid, which is why Jack wouldn't do it.
Point number two includes a tinfoil hat, so I'll let it stand with that caveat.
Points number three and four are fair enough.

The last thing is just a terrible reason to lynch someone though holy crap. I suss.

I'll admit it isn't the best, but I don't really think we got anything resolved from spending almost half the phase on them. If anything I'm just more suspicious of both.

I'd still prefer other people, but if push comes to shove and we have no other options then these 3 I think i'd prefer either Jack or Nutella.

Though really none of these lynches gets my excited, but I'm not actively against any either.

Also a Pre-ISO (minus Michelle) breakdown of my thoughts.

Super duper Civ:
Sig

Civ Reads:
Epi: Playing within Civ meta, active.
SVS: Good tone and activity push. I like how she clarified her Radish Slip thing seemed very civvie.
tedxtr: This may change after I ISO him, but based off D0/early D1 liked him.


Civ Leans:
Sloonei
TH
sprityo
sabie12

Null:
juliets
G-Man
Dyslexicon
TonyStarkPrime
Dom

Need more posts:
Colins
Drag
Tranq


Mafia Lean:
nutella
MacDougall
Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay
Master Radishes
speedchuck
Michelle


Mafia:
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Tried to minimize my null reads. My Jack/Nutella reads are based off their back and forth so I really didn't know where to stick them, but they're both pinging me right now.

Also that lynch post was perfect. Salutations to you nanook.

I think this lynch result is a good look for Jack.

If he hadn't have backpedaled I'd agree. His post flip posts also read meh to me.

Why do you think he looks good from it.

He was certain he wasn't seeing good nutella, enough to boldly sing it into the streets.
Then he wasn't so certain he was seeing bad nutella, later.

Jack is AU me, and it seems like the way I'd coincidentally handle something like that while being 100% correct.

I don't have anything firm here, though. On a whim, it's like Jack was sorta right and had no way of concretely knowing that, and it feels neat.

Okay, guess I could see this.

nutella @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

I know you already touched on this, but if y'all could throw out a more comprehensive read list that would be grand. Namely top civs and top mafia reads and why.

linki: Agreed

Of those names, I’m not sure one in particular stands out. I think Sig’s vote was the most egregious, but his macro play of all those names has been the greenest. At the moment I’m not entirely sure where I’d place a vote (and obviously can’t anyway), but GTH I’d say Sabie. Also not a fan of Mac’s play on this – inconsistent and never landed on the wagon or, conversely, showed progression away from it. Just blew on the sparks a bit.

I dunno, I was suspicious of Sig for a reason I think. Let me look back.

Ah, yes, it was his crappity crap reasons for still wanting to lynch nutella after Jack recanted. He overcompenisated for his position by throwing a bunch of bad reasons in with the good.

1. Reason wasnt crappy
2. Was laying out my thought process.

It would be imo so much worse to instantly switch off since Jack changed his mind, especially since I didnt base my vote solely off his read and two she wasn't a civ?

Not to mention I stated a few times she wasnt my top lynch which Is why I switched off once things evened our a bit.

Sig


Dom
Epignosis
Jackofhearts2005



NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME 2.0
Sloonei
tedxtr
JaggedJimmyJay
juliets
TonyStarkPrime
Michelle



Dragomir
Tranq


Dyslexicon
ColinIsCool
Turnip Head
S~V~S
speedchuck


G-Man
MacDougall
sprityo
sabie12

I have a question for the thread that I just want to make sure gets asked before we get too absorbed in interactive analyses: who are the most suspicious players independent of Radishes?

I’m gonna be out for the day. Continue hunting for both teams, y’all.

Mac
Sprityo
Dizzy

Last I checked, Dizzy was locktown. What's up?

I've been saying he may be scum for awhie. Why locked town?

also I don't have like a real case case on him. Mainly tone/yesterday's lynch actions which were odd.

Lock might be a strong word, but Dizzy is one of my top town reads. Tossing Dizzy up as a most suspicious character without an actual case is worse than what I'm doing.

Which is putting them up as a top townread without an actual case.

I've not had the time to make a solid case, but tone wise and based off previous games he different.

The main thing for now with in game info is how he tried to CFD away from radish/mac and onto sloonie. I wasn't a fan of this I think he was trying to protect one of them. And since I think Mac is scum and we know radish is it's a win win.

Speedchuck is short odds to be scum here imo

You never responded to my addressing your accusation earlier.

Am I active in scumchat, Mac?

Yes and got told to switch to them on this-2 junk.

Funny people seem able to figure out that role but not any other info ones.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

No, he is exactly who sig thought he was.

Then why isn't everyone like 'ltnch sig immediately'

It is literally hella clear. Even if you claim I'm mafia and knew a kill failed there would be so many potential reasons for it. Fewer reasons for the other ones paired with the fact that like I said

There not being a kill night one wasn't even the main reason for why I wanted him gone qasnt that
It was a throw away thing.

So again showing the entire case on me is based off a non existence acum slip even though people keep trying to claim it isnt.

Hey guys just wanna catch up here a bitty bit.

Mac is still a person who could survive a nightkill but isn't who sig 'slipped' him to be? Or even on the same team?

How would we parse that? My sig suspicion remains independent of the 'slip', but it's a lot weaker without it.

This is actually a terrible look for Speed.

I'm not concerned about that. I've kept up with the game enough to think Mac was going to flip Anti-Monitor. I was surprised to see Saitama.

Saitama is exactly the role sig said he thought Mac was though back on d2 and the one that makes sense with all the theories. But ok.

Yea it reeks for speed honestly. I've been going after this and specifically this role forever.


And again on the TMI thing I've talked about this a fair amount but really if I was mafia and knew a kill failed I'd never bring it up as a theory.

It played nicely into my larger theory of the role he had so I ran with it and was right.

I'm not concerned about that. I've kept up with the game enough to think Mac was going to flip Anti-Monitor. I was surprised to see Saitama.

Saitama is exactly the role sig said he thought Mac was though back on d2 and the one that makes sense with all the theories. But ok.

Yea it reeks for speed honestly. I've been going after this and specifically this role forever.

And you expect me to have read any of those posts... why?

I skimmed Dizzy's post, then voted. After the lynch, I saw Sloonei and Juliets having a conversation like this:

"Sloonei is still a prime suspect."
"I don't get it, why?"

And I'm like WTF did something not go as planned? Mac seems to have flipped scum. What's going on?

So I asked.

I expect you to have read sig's single day 2 post, it was a pretty big deal

I didn't though.

Wtf

"Silenced" post

~~~

There's a lot going on here. Emerging themes: speedchuck was generally anti-sig, and he used strong language to express that perspective more than once -- stronger than he has tended to use for others. He put some labor into casting doubt on Dizzy's slip theory, but emphasized the existence of other suspicions instead. sig wasn't all that responsive to speedchuck considering the frequency of the latter's dialogue about him. It's awkward. My biggest concern remains Day 3, wherein speed moved his vote around between Mac and sig -- it looks like posturing more than it looks like weighing two options. I don't think this stuff is beyond the realm of distancing.

Compatibility: Decent

[Jackofhearts2005]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

@juliets @Jackofhearts2005

Cause he had btsc with players and seemed to trust them based on that as much or more than his in thread reads.

Which of his reads are incorrect?

[speedchuck]

If everyone has suspected speedchuck forever for every position why has he not been lynched yet?

This is a real question.

Yesterday was the first day he was really mentioned as a serious candidate in a thread that included the entire active roster.

sure. And JJJ pushed him and voted for Colin anyways. We talked more about Speed than Colin but Colin ended up lynched.

What's the best reason you can think of to town read speedchuck?

Mislynch bait — universal scumread in appearance, no clear teammates. But jjj/ speed seems very possible

they saving me for mylo

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

@juliets @Jackofhearts2005

Cause he had btsc with players and seemed to trust them based on that as much or more than his in thread reads.

Which of his reads are incorrect?

The read I continue to try to sort is Epignosis. I don't know why Dom liked him. BTSC is an avenue to discuss the game and develop general feelings, but it's not markedly better than the thread itself for discerning truth.

You'd do well to get out of your laughter emoji mindset. If you're a civilian you're setting us up for a loss.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

they saving me for mylo

But "they" weren't saving Colin for MyLo? Meh

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] why am I bad

[juliets]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

@juliets @Jackofhearts2005

Cause he had btsc with players and seemed to trust them based on that as much or more than his in thread reads.

Which of his reads are incorrect?

The read I continue to try to sort is Epignosis. I don't know why Dom liked him. BTSC is an avenue to discuss the game and develop general feelings, but it's not markedly better than the thread itself for discerning truth.

You'd do well to get out of your laughter emoji mindset. If you're a civilian you're setting us up for a loss.

I agree with Jack on this. Could Dom have been wrong? Maybe, but I doubt it and would need some good evidence against Epi to vote for him. I do agree with you though that him calling you phony sounding isn't great evidence against you.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Why are Dom's reads gospel?

@juliets @Jackofhearts2005

Cause he had btsc with players and seemed to trust them based on that as much or more than his in thread reads.

Which of his reads are incorrect?

The read I continue to try to sort is Epignosis. I don't know why Dom liked him. BTSC is an avenue to discuss the game and develop general feelings, but it's not markedly better than the thread itself for discerning truth.

You'd do well to get out of your laughter emoji mindset. If you're a civilian you're setting us up for a loss.

Sure it is. Infodumping in BTSC is allowed per the rules page.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sure it is. Infodumping in BTSC is allowed per the rules page.

It only takes one lie and that house of cards goes boom.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I wish I'd have been lynched yesterday.

[speedchuck]

@speedchuck why am I bad

I wish I'd have been lynched yesterday.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@speedchuck why am I bad

I wish I'd have been lynched yesterday.

You're scapegoating me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei you're a dead fish. What's your overall theory of the game right now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reminder to self during thesis window: review Epignosis and Jack for sig connections. Revisit Mac. Align full game theory. Middle finger haters.

[Epignosis]

Reminder to self during thesis window: review Epignosis and Jack for sig connections. Revisit Mac. Align full game theory. Middle finger haters.

You are 100% mafia. Sucks for you, but it's true.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sure it is. Infodumping in BTSC is allowed per the rules page.

It only takes one lie and that house of cards goes boom.

If you say so.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reminder to self during thesis window: review Epignosis and Jack for sig connections. Revisit Mac. Align full game theory. Middle finger haters.

You are 100% mafia. Sucks for you, but it's true.

Then find my teammates. Or other mafia. Make yourself useful. If you're a civilian you're playing to lose.

If this day phase amounts to "Jay is bad" and a bunch of rolling tumbleweed, I am going to be upset. Get busy motherfuckers.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Reminder to self during thesis window: review Epignosis and Jack for sig connections. Revisit Mac. Align full game theory. Middle finger haters.

Tfw you find a wolf’s to do list.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine is way too comfortable right now. The game hangs in the balance and this dude is Ben Stein.

[Sloonei]

So only you can be zen?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do I look zen right now

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaY aNd SlOoNeI aRe DiStAnCiNg

[Sloonei]

Do I look zen right now

Not anymore.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So only you can be zen?

Seriously though, your posts are sleepy. The game is not in a good place. That's a contrast.

[Sloonei]

So only you can be zen?

Seriously though, your posts are sleepy. The game is not in a good place. That's a contrast.

That’s a me thing, not a game thing. I’m still here and still trying to solve things, but my mafia energy isn’t at its peak.

I think the votes for you are wrong if the theory is that you are on Mac’s team. I think they have merit if the theory is that you’re the anti-monitor, but I don’t think that conversation is closed. Epi and Tony can be in the conversation too. Juliets and Jack are my tinfoils.

I think ted is a good bet to be on Mac’s team. Interactions, POE, and his behavior today all point to it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That’s a me thing, not a game thing. I’m still here and still trying to solve things, but my mafia energy isn’t at its peak.

I think the votes for you are wrong if the theory is that you are on Mac’s team. I think they have merit if the theory is that you’re the anti-monitor, but I don’t think that conversation is closed. Epi and Tony can be in the conversation too. Juliets and Jack are my tinfoils.

I think ted is a good bet to be on Mac’s team. Interactions, POE, and his behavior today all point to it.

Would you confidently state that speedchuck is not the anti-monitor?

Tell me more about the yellow thing.

[Sloonei]

That’s a me thing, not a game thing. I’m still here and still trying to solve things, but my mafia energy isn’t at its peak.

I think the votes for you are wrong if the theory is that you are on Mac’s team. I think they have merit if the theory is that you’re the anti-monitor, but I don’t think that conversation is closed. Epi and Tony can be in the conversation too. Juliets and Jack are my tinfoils.

I think ted is a good bet to be on Mac’s team. Interactions, POE, and his behavior today all point to it.

Would you confidently state that speedchuck is not the anti-monitor?

Tell me more about the yellow thing.

I would not. But sabie had at least one post where she took a definitive stance against speedchuck, which does not align with her handling of the other two members of her team.

In my exchange earlier with ted, he did the old “act incredulous in the face of moderate pressure” routine and I wasn’t a fan.

[tedxtr]

How the fuck does my behavior today point to me being on master’s team, what?????