Banjo-Kazooie Mafia [GAME OVER]

[Turnip Head]

You guys have both expressed extreme confidence in your reads today. I don't know why.

My confidence makes sense from a townie perspective and I've explained it multiple times. You're not bad, DDL's not bad, Russ isn't bad (from my POV), that leaves speed and dunya in the PoE. Dunya tried to sink her claws into me but I counterpunched her back, cuz we're bestfriends but she's a wolf and I'm a leaky bucket

[dunya]

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

[dunya]

fuck, i am going to waste a post to scold myself how bad i am at using the correct pronouns. i absolutely suck and should be lynched for that.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Nanook being NK'd throws a wrench into the nutella-TH teammate works though. It takes away a mislynch opportunity from them and also erases any cred gained by TH in the process. It was, however, a soft erasure of cred for TH, because I don't know that many people sussed him for his sus of Nanook. I mean, Nanook had a lot of 'splainin to do. Maybe that shelved analysis of TH's sus on Nanook. Hard to say.

Sorry I didn't reply to this before cuz I only read it now, but might as well comment on it.

While TH did suspect nanook at the time, I got the impression his big focus was on me, for sheeping on nanook. He only accused nanook after I pressed TH to give an opinion on him.

If mafia had already decided to kill nanook at that point, it would make sense for scum TH to do that.

[Turnip Head]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

[Turnip Head]

Nanook being NK'd throws a wrench into the nutella-TH teammate works though. It takes away a mislynch opportunity from them and also erases any cred gained by TH in the process. It was, however, a soft erasure of cred for TH, because I don't know that many people sussed him for his sus of Nanook. I mean, Nanook had a lot of 'splainin to do. Maybe that shelved analysis of TH's sus on Nanook. Hard to say.

Sorry I didn't reply to this before cuz I only read it now, but might as well comment on it.

While TH did suspect nanook at the time, I got the impression his big focus was on me, for sheeping on nanook. He only accused nanook after I pressed TH to give an opinion on him.

If mafia had already decided to kill nanook at that point, it would make sense for scum TH to do that.

That's not really fair to say I only suspected Nanook after you pressed me. My focus was being pulled in multiple directions and I had already discussed my doubt in Nanook before you ever even asked me about it. So that's not really how it went down.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Nanook being NK'd throws a wrench into the nutella-TH teammate works though. It takes away a mislynch opportunity from them and also erases any cred gained by TH in the process. It was, however, a soft erasure of cred for TH, because I don't know that many people sussed him for his sus of Nanook. I mean, Nanook had a lot of 'splainin to do. Maybe that shelved analysis of TH's sus on Nanook. Hard to say.

Sorry I didn't reply to this before cuz I only read it now, but might as well comment on it.

While TH did suspect nanook at the time, I got the impression his big focus was on me, for sheeping on nanook. He only accused nanook after I pressed TH to give an opinion on him.

If mafia had already decided to kill nanook at that point, it would make sense for scum TH to do that.

That's not really fair to say I only suspected Nanook after you pressed me. My focus was being pulled in multiple directions and I had already discussed my doubt in Nanook before you ever even asked me about it. So that's not really how it went down.

I don't know who you suspected when.

I'm saying who you accused when.

What was on our mind is something we can only learn when your role flip.

[Turnip Head]

You're being weird about this DDL. I'm town and my reads have been genuine even if they were mostly incorrect.

[dunya]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

why ddl "for sure"? why would a vig out themselves at night if they weren't 1-shot?

[Turnip Head]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

why ddl "for sure"? why would a vig out themselves at night if they weren't 1-shot?

I'm not a perrrfect perrrson
There's many things I wish I didn't dooo

[Sloonei]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

why ddl "for sure"? why would a vig out themselves at night if they weren't 1-shot?

g-man outted ddl.

[dunya]

14 player game. i assume we have 3 baddies and 11 townies

role claims so far:
mac - vanilla
epi - vanilla
sig- vanilla
tony/jack - vanilla

nanook - vanilla cop
mp7 - jailkeeper
g-man - tracker
ddl - vig
sloonei - gifter
dunya - double voter

nutella - mafia watcher

now my poe claims:
turnip: a kind of...2-shot watcher
speed - vanilla
russ - vanilla

first of all, we have a tracker and a vanilla cop that have flipped so 100% cofirmed, so does it feel like turnip's watcher role is sort of excess weight there? plus, it stands out to me being the only role that's 2-shot from all the role flips. apart from ddl of course, but having unlimited vig shots isn't that fair. i'm not totally convinced by the role, or that they pick ddl last night instead of gman in the first place. i'm gonna mull on it for a few hours but i gtg for dinner and movie night.

but i love that hoobastank song! i should have put that as my guilty pleasure.

[dunya]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

why ddl "for sure"? why would a vig out themselves at night if they weren't 1-shot?

g-man outted ddl.

yeah, but only after ddl told him to itt. so basically it's to prove that gman did know ddl was the one who shot nutella.

[Russtifinko]

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

....parts of this actually make sense to me. I still don't understand your 180 on Speed and think it's baddie-teammate indicative, but I'll read through TH again and see if a Speed/TH team fits.

[Turnip Head]

Don't fall for her pretty words Russti, stay the course. The baddie team is speed and dunya. We could lynch speed first if you're more comfortable with that.

[speedchuck]

I don't believe both of these role claims.

I also don't believe TH/Dunya are aligned. If so, this is the greatest distancing game ever played.

Russ/TH.
Russ/dunya.

I was leaning Dunya before the role claims.
Now I'd be leaning TH, but that last appeal to Russti didn't feel like w/w.

I'd probably go with Dunya. Her widening of her POE feels the most agenda driven, especially in the face of claims.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Well, I thought I posted this when I was on earlier today, but apparently it didn't go through.

did you read the thread? everyone i iso'd individually made me feel worse about TH tbh, starting with sloonei's iso of nutella. i have no doubt in my mind they are bad now. and i'm pretty sold on you being their teammate. if jack had flipped bad, TH coulda been good.

I feel like I let dunya down somehow cuz she did a complete 180 on me. Dunya what did I do?

Clearly I have read the thread, and clearly I'm not the only person confused about where this came from.

Calling it now: baddies are dunya/Speed. I now think dunya was buddying TH and is flipping on him now that victory is in sight.


Since then: RIP G-Man. dunya's sudden flip on TH feels to me like a baddie lashing out, and her reasoning for it is weak. TH "hasn't done anything" lately?? Why are you being dismissive of TH now? Where's the dunya who reached out to TH when they were getting frustrated and felt like no one was hearing them and said "I hear you?"

It feels like scum dunya has realized if she can lead a mislynch today she wins, so she moved to flip on the easiest remaining townie to mislynch and can't come up with a reason to justify it. With Sloon and DDL confirmed, Speed being her teammate, and her suspicion of me not taking off, TH is her only option left.

It's funny if we look at nutella russti and TH. They've all scum read 1 of them and townread 2.

If you're trying to make a point, make it. Are you saying the baddie move is to townread yourself and one teammate and scum read the other? If so, what did your GTH with Speed and nutella look like? This is being presented as helpful analysis, but it's just weak shade hoping someone else picks it up and runs with it.

FWIW, I also don't buy the fake "if I'm gone after tonight" bit. The POE for today is 4 people, max, and dunya knew she was one of them. No baddie in their right minds kills her last night. Trying to act like a worried civ.

I can totally see this. dunya's progression from Day 3 to now was weird, man.

One thing that weird me out is that, after the MP debacle, I was expecting her to get mad at me for having a hand in it, with the claiming thing, since she has been doing that for days. But before she could show up, G-Man confirmed me. So when dunya showed up, she didn't say a single thing about it.

It makes me wonder if she was actually mad at me in previous days or if she was stageing that to make a possible DDL mislynch happen, and now that this isn't on the table, she has decided not to waste energy (or postcount) with me anymore.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Well I suppose I'm the only character claim left.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

So do we tinfoil that one of the two leads in the game might be scum?

Cuz that's what it takes for Russ to be bad.

Never mind that Jay went through the trouble to give them fake claims.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Leaky, Gnawty and Clanker are all characters that could be missing from the setup and it wouln't be weird, though.

[Sloonei]

I'm more likely to be convinced to vote based on player behavior than role claims.

[Turnip Head]

I'm more likely to be convinced to vote based on player behavior than role claims.

So what does that mean for your vote right now?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If mafia doesn't kill TH next night they are suicidal. His role is even stronger than G-Man's. And they have shown extreme degrees of cop fear anyway.

This makes me a little more willing to leave TH alive. To see if he doesn't get killed.

That said, if he is mafia, he's going to come with result that will implicate someone, and then the game will boil down to him versus someone else.

While if he is killed, me and Sloonei won't, so it's still 1v1.

So I'm leaning on lynching one of speed or dunya instead.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm more likely to be convinced to vote based on player behavior than role claims.

Well I still like Russ, tbh. His recent posts have looked civ to me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

You seem nervous.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

apart from ddl of course, but having unlimited vig shots isn't that fair.

You keep bringing that up.

That sounds like something that was discussed in scumchat.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[VOTE: Dunya] aubergine

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Actually if TH is mafia, the optimal play tomorrow is to say he targetted whoever between me and Sloonei did not get shot, so he prevents a further decrease of the PoE, and the day is still 2v1.

Does this mafia actually shoot Sloonei over me AND TH, though? I would figure the two of us are bigger threats than Sloonei...

[Sloonei]

[mention]Turnip Head[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]dunya[/mention] [mention]Russtifinko[/mention]

My vote is going to be decided by your actions. Ignoring POE and role claims is hard to do at this stage of the game, but if I ask you to do exactly that, what are your reads on each of the other players listed here? Based purely on behavior/votes/in-thread actions, who are your suspects and who are your town reads? And why?

[dunya]

[VOTE: Dunya] aubergine

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

....parts of this actually make sense to me. I still don't understand your 180 on Speed and think it's baddie-teammate indicative, but I'll read through TH again and see if a Speed/TH team fits.

Poe. Of course I'll do a 180.

Everything changed since day 3. We got 3 confirmed townies in one evening. I don't see why everyone is surprised?

I don't believe both of these role claims.

I also don't believe TH/Dunya are aligned. If so, this is the greatest distancing game ever played.

Russ/TH.
Russ/dunya.

I was leaning Dunya before the role claims.
Now I'd be leaning TH, but that last appeal to Russti didn't feel like w/w.

I'd probably go with Dunya. Her widening of her POE feels the most agenda driven, especially in the face of claims.

So Russ is definitely mafia to you, but you'll go with dunya anyway. Doesn't make sense.

Well, I thought I posted this when I was on earlier today, but apparently it didn't go through.

did you read the thread? everyone i iso'd individually made me feel worse about TH tbh, starting with sloonei's iso of nutella. i have no doubt in my mind they are bad now. and i'm pretty sold on you being their teammate. if jack had flipped bad, TH coulda been good.

I feel like I let dunya down somehow cuz she did a complete 180 on me. Dunya what did I do?

Clearly I have read the thread, and clearly I'm not the only person confused about where this came from.

Calling it now: baddies are dunya/Speed. I now think dunya was buddying TH and is flipping on him now that victory is in sight.


Since then: RIP G-Man. dunya's sudden flip on TH feels to me like a baddie lashing out, and her reasoning for it is weak. TH "hasn't done anything" lately?? Why are you being dismissive of TH now? Where's the dunya who reached out to TH when they were getting frustrated and felt like no one was hearing them and said "I hear you?"

It feels like scum dunya has realized if she can lead a mislynch today she wins, so she moved to flip on the easiest remaining townie to mislynch and can't come up with a reason to justify it. With Sloon and DDL confirmed, Speed being her teammate, and her suspicion of me not taking off, TH is her only option left.

It's funny if we look at nutella russti and TH. They've all scum read 1 of them and townread 2.

If you're trying to make a point, make it. Are you saying the baddie move is to townread yourself and one teammate and scum read the other? If so, what did your GTH with Speed and nutella look like? This is being presented as helpful analysis, but it's just weak shade hoping someone else picks it up and runs with it.

FWIW, I also don't buy the fake "if I'm gone after tonight" bit. The POE for today is 4 people, max, and dunya knew she was one of them. No baddie in their right minds kills her last night. Trying to act like a worried civ.

I can totally see this. dunya's progression from Day 3 to now was weird, man.

One thing that weird me out is that, after the MP debacle, I was expecting her to get mad at me for having a hand in it, with the claiming thing, since she has been doing that for days. But before she could show up, G-Man confirmed me. So when dunya showed up, she didn't say a single thing about it.

It makes me wonder if she was actually mad at me in previous days or if she was stageing that to make a possible DDL mislynch happen, and now that this isn't on the table, she has decided not to waste energy (or postcount) with me anymore.

Why would I get mad at you? You're the vig and you allowed gman to claim your role. I don't think you had a hand in MPs modkill and if you did, I didn't read the details to not spoil myself the game tbh. I don't cry over spilled milk and youre the confirmed vig who took out nutella, so you've done more in this game than me... I ain't complaining.

Also I don't get what was weird about my day 3 progression. I had bad feelings about TH starting around when I was going back and forth on Jack and speed and instead of helping me navigate between them, they immediately went to calling me teammates with them. It was gross and I started having negative feelings from their handling of it where it was clear I was struggling to read speed who wasn't playing the fucking game and jack who I admittedly tunneled. It felt very negative and untownlike to hold me responsible and pair me with someone as bad when no flips had happened and end of day was still on going.

So maybe that also answers [mention]Russtifinko[/mention] concerns about my flip on TH. You can go back and see it. Its why i called him out for watching me during that and not be helpful.

If mafia doesn't kill TH next night they are suicidal. His role is even stronger than G-Man's. And they have shown extreme degrees of cop fear anyway.

This makes me a little more willing to leave TH alive. To see if he doesn't get killed.

That said, if he is mafia, he's going to come with result that will implicate someone, and then the game will boil down to him versus someone else.

While if he is killed, me and Sloonei won't, so it's still 1v1.

So I'm leaning on lynching one of speed or dunya instead.

I don't understand this. If you lunch me it's game over. There is no next day. So if you really think it's me with one of the other three (speed, TH or Russ), keep your vote on me.

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

You seem nervous.

No kidding. It's MYLO and I'm a suspect. I don't want to lose the game because people suspect me.

[Turnip Head]

At the end of the day, dunya and I are opposite sides of the same coin. Which makes sense because we're basically best friends. It brings me no pleasure to be in Mylo with her She has played well and I won't pretend I've played better. I've made lots of mistakes, but they were townie mistakes, because that's what I am this game.

[Russtifinko]

@Turnip Head @speedchuck @dunya @Russtifinko

My vote is going to be decided by your actions. Ignoring POE and role claims is hard to do at this stage of the game, but if I ask you to do exactly that, what are your reads on each of the other players listed here? Based purely on behavior/votes/in-thread actions, who are your suspects and who are your town reads? And why?

I don't think it's reasonable for you to ask us to ignore info regarding you and DDL - your breadcrumb on your role and the fact that DDL was corroborated by G-Man make you both literally 100% lock town for me, as in, if either of you are bad then we aren't even playing the game of mafia, because something has been massively screwed up. Other than on you two, though, I'll do my best. Obviously I'm town and not in my own POE, so that leaves dunya/Speed/TH. I'm not going to go back and quote extensively or (re-)do full ISOs here, but just bascially explain my thought process.

My strong gut feeling is that the baddie team is Speed/dunya, so I'll start with them. In Speed's case, my read isn't so much associations/thread interactions with others, because Speed hasn't really done a whole lot of that in this game. There's just very little to go on in general. I keep going back to this post from Mac:

They're a pigeon pair of slanking wolves I think. They've both made just two posts. Speedchuck just put in a mighty effort in the other game, roles wolf here, can't muster up the energy to switch modes. G-Man just doesn't like playing Mafia, let alone being Mafia.

Now obviously, Mac also suspected G-Man here, and we know he was good. I don't think it invalidates the point, though: there are a lot of people who just have trouble getting into a game of mafia as baddies or feel demoralized/unmotivated by it, partly because the "solving the game" aspect is gone and partly because they don't like deceiving people. MP7 comes to mind in that regard, and I think nutella showed it in this game. I don't know Speed all that well, so can't say in terms of his personality, but I think it makes sense that would be more likely to be in play for him here if he just put in a heroic effort as a civ in another game.

The thing that originally stuck out to me, though, was his behavior on D2. According to Speed, he was barely keeping up with the thread. Despite that, he found a lot of time to tell people not to lynch sig. He never offered an alternate candidate, though, nor even a thread-based reason he thought sig was good. It was all just weak, gut-based reasoning, and he had to know it wouldn't be likely to convince anyone. I think he did it so he could say "I told you so" later on for civ cred, while expending minimal effort, and I don't really see a civ angle to it - if he legitimately believed sig was civ and he was too, the civ move is to advocate harder at the very least, and push someone he actually thought was mafia at best. You might remember from my ISO of her that nutella had a very similar defense of G-Man, and I think it makes sense as a baddie play.

For dunya, we've been at eacj other's throats since D1, starting when I sussed her for posting 5 times in a row and calling MP town much earlier and with much more certainty than I thought was reasonable, almost like she knew he was. I thought she was buddying him. She OMGUSed me, then immediately backed off me and pivoted to talking about Mac, who had the most votes at the time. As I looked back at that exchange just now, I was reminded of this, too:

dunya seems her typical self
but she's not firmly on my town shelf
because I know she can be wily scum
but she's not under my voting thumb

Does anyone have some berries and whipped cream I can put on this waffle?

I should've pressed harder on this at the time and also picked up on it once again when I ISOed nutella. It's so waffly and reads to me like a baddie teammate soft-defending another before suspicion on them really picks up, but leaving wiggle room to distance later if necessary.

Beyond nutella, though, 4-5 other people had gut civ leans on her, and then Epi said he thought her going after Mac and Sloon was town-dunya behavior. I also think people were kind of tuning out our exchanges by now. Night 2, I thought she was trying to set up an easy NANOOK revenge lynch:

if nanook is bad, he's good to lynch. if he's town, then everything he did was not a team-effort or actually inspired by scum hunting reasons but a personal vendetta which is anti-town and i have issues with that.

Can you see how this sounds a little bit like "sig is either bad and won't claim because he was caught, or not bad and not trying hard enough for me, therefore I am ok with lynching him either way"? You're making the argument you're going after NANOOK for.

but that theory fell apart when NANOOK was NKed. And then, when I ISOed nutella, she came out looking a bit better overall. So I was feeling less certain, and wondering if I actually had been tunneling her as others implied.

Then in yesterday's lynch, I started suspecting her more primarily based on her interactions with Speed, who I thought was bad. As I said at the time, she:

1) hard defended Speed
2) said "ah, whatever. not my job to defend someone who isn't playing. I'm voting Speed"
3) voted speed
4) changed her vote to Jack without announcing it

And then today, she went from fully defending TH and townreading him when I had some testy exchanges with dunya/TH in thread, to saying that now she thinks he's my baddie teammate. I think over yesterday and today, the progressions on her reads have made no sense. I do, however, think they fit with baddie motivations. I think she and Speed realized it was MYLO, and then she tried to find who she thought would be the weakest link for a mislynch and go after them. She clearly landed on TH.

When I asked for explanation recently, I did think parts of her explanation made sense. However, as I reread now, I'm coming back to this

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1

dunya adamantly did NOT suss TH for their beef with Mac, nor their interactions with TonyJack. Like I said, she's taken their side in thread multiple times. This makes it sound like there was a suss that built slowly over time by observing irrational behavior from TH, but that's revisionist history - we observed her sticking up for them in thread.

Admittedly, my read on dunya at this point is based partly on her strange behavior around the Speed lynch, and I think large parts of this narrative only work if they're a baddie pair. However, I'm trying to keep in mind that it's still possible I'm tunneling her and TH is the other baddie. I'm going to reread TH this evening, and I'll do my best to keep an open mind about it, but it may be tough because I do feel pretty strongly about the other two.

[Sloonei]

I don't think it's reasonable for you to ask us to ignore info regarding you and DDL - your breadcrumb on your role and the fact that DDL was corroborated by G-Man make you both literally 100% lock town for me, as in, if either of you are bad then we aren't even playing the game of mafia, because something has been massively screwed up.

To be clear, I'm assuming that both DDL and I are cleared in everyone's eyes. I'm asking this question of the four of you because you're the ones I need to make a decision on. The most effective way for me to do that is to determine who looks the most authentic in their hunting.

I'll have more to say about your response when I've had a chance to digest it. I'm distracted right now.

[dunya]

I don't like this type of mafia where I can't go back on a townread when a game progresses. Or i have to say "light town" itherwise i am 100% townfirming someone. Thats just not how i have played mafia over the course of 10 years.

Yeah I'm stupid and I town read TH for all those phases and defended speed when he didn't care to defend himself. That doesn't mean when my pool of suspects goes down to three and I reassess their posts I can't find scum motive behind it. If you're town, I'm gonna be really sad. If your scum, well done for breaking me.

[Russtifinko]

HOLY FUCK! In the middle of my TH ISO, but I was just reminded that we lynched TonyJack on D3 in large part because of dunya's "dream". I'm aware that we did the same thing to sig on D2 based on faulty (but civ) info from NANOOK, but wow is it a bad look. Did dunya ever tell us what form the info took or how certain it was? Because as hard as she sussed NANOOK for his infodump, she seemed pretty damn certain about hers being unimpeachable.

[Turnip Head]

@Turnip Head @speedchuck @dunya @Russtifinko

My vote is going to be decided by your actions. Ignoring POE and role claims is hard to do at this stage of the game, but if I ask you to do exactly that, what are your reads on each of the other players listed here? Based purely on behavior/votes/in-thread actions, who are your suspects and who are your town reads? And why?

I've made my stance on all these players clear and taking POE out of the equation feels disingenuous to me. I think Russ did a good job of summing up what feels dishonest about dunya, and if she's bad, speedchuck is the only teammate that fits.

My actions this game aren't perfect but I think they speak for themselves, it's up to you to decide if my intentions have been pure or not.

[Turnip Head]

Frankly I'm a little nervous about sloonei not indicating which way he's leaning. He's given no indication one way or the other

[Russtifinko]

Sorry - I'm still in the middle of my TH ISO, but I thought more about this as I was eating dinner.

dunya has made 2 claims this game.

1) She "had a dream" that Jack was bad. Please anyone tell me if I'm wrong on this, but I think that this would, by necessity, arise from some night power or night actions. Even if that's not necessarily true, though, her own language and the timing hint at it being night - phrasing it as a "dream" and posting about it first thing in the Day.

Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

2) She has a very powerful role that, just as it would happen, would be one only a civ could have (double vote power).

i have a double vote. my vote counts as two. useful in mylo and lylo, although it's out in the open now.

I think the odds of JJJ giving dunya 2 distinct and very powerful role powers in a game with a significant number of vanillas are vanishingly small. I also don't think it's possible she got 2 powers some other way - Sloonei is the one giving out gifts, and he has said he didn't target her, and when people have earned rewards in the past they've come in the form of jiggies. dunya is lying and is scum.

Also worth pointing out that dunya's "info" came on a Day when Speed and Jack were pretty much the only viable lynch candidates, and from what I saw, it seemed like her argument swayed enough people to turn that lynch. I'd put money on the baddie team being dunya/Speed based on this alone. That said, I'll finish my read of TH to see how tinfoil a dunya/TH team would be. Initial gut reaction is it wouldn't make sense, because why would duny a bother claiming info on Jack D3 if both the top lynch candidates were bad? And also, Why would she have said to go after me "when TH flips bad" as though a TH lynch was somehow inevitable? Still worth reading for just to be sure, but going to be hard to stay impartial there.

[Turnip Head]

I don't think dunya was being serious about the dream thing, or at the least it was not meant to be taken as info inside the game lol

[Turnip Head]

I don't like this type of mafia where I can't go back on a townread when a game progresses. Or i have to say "light town" itherwise i am 100% townfirming someone. Thats just not how i have played mafia over the course of 10 years.

Yeah I'm stupid and I town read TH for all those phases and defended speed when he didn't care to defend himself. That doesn't mean when my pool of suspects goes down to three and I reassess their posts I can't find scum motive behind it. If you're town, I'm gonna be really sad. If your scum, well done for breaking me.

Honestly this post rings true to me. Is it possible we live in a world where you and I are both good and sloonei was accidentally cleared? I'm not bad, so if you're not bad, we really need to reexamine sloonei, who is making my paranoia meters run rampant right now.

I'd be okay with going for a No Lynch today

[Turnip Head]

Or we could lynch speedchuck, who is bad in every universe

[dunya]

Sorry - I'm still in the middle of my TH ISO, but I thought more about this as I was eating dinner.

dunya has made 2 claims this game.

1) She "had a dream" that Jack was bad. Please anyone tell me if I'm wrong on this, but I think that this would, by necessity, arise from some night power or night actions. Even if that's not necessarily true, though, her own language and the timing hint at it being night - phrasing it as a "dream" and posting about it first thing in the Day.

Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

2) She has a very powerful role that, just as it would happen, would be one only a civ could have (double vote power).

i have a double vote. my vote counts as two. useful in mylo and lylo, although it's out in the open now.

I think the odds of JJJ giving dunya 2 distinct and very powerful role powers in a game with a significant number of vanillas are vanishingly small. I also don't think it's possible she got 2 powers some other way - Sloonei is the one giving out gifts, and he has said he didn't target her, and when people have earned rewards in the past they've come in the form of jiggies. dunya is lying and is scum.

you are doing some ridiculous mind gymnastics at this point. i have no clue how you can interpret my dream post as a 2nd role claim. but this is the last time i am going to be addressing you. don't take this as disrespect, but i know my limits and i am no longer enjoying this game where i am tunneled from day 0 for a whole game no matter what i do or say. nothing i say will change your mind. you have taken every single thing i have said or done and twisted it to suit your agenda of finding me as bad, not to actually read my intentions or my responses. you want me to be bad. fine. now please do us both a favor and just vote for me russti.

sorry guys, obviously russti caught me red handed here where i double claimed to have dreamed jack is bad with my second power.

[Russtifinko]

TH:

Mac seems more interested in reading townies than finding scum

I've voted for him

TH placed a few different votes D1, including MP, dunya, and finally, Mac.

I actually think I missed their dunya vote D1 - in my mind, the two of them have essentially been a pair all game (which may not be fair), so I was surprised to see it. The other notable thing from D1 is that they called sig was civ, which as I've said looks like a baddie move designed to get civ cred to me, given how things have played out this game. However, I think in this case, that's counteracted by the Mac vote, which gives accountability and put them at some risk. Same for this post:

A reminder that Mac was leading the poll by a full vote before the dogpile on sig occurred

A baddie could definitely write this to push for a Mac revenge lynch if sig had been lynched D1, but as we know, there was a counter-dogpile after. If there had been significant baddie votes in the Mac train, I could see this as clever distancing, but given that Epi and G-Man were the most pivotal votes there, I have trouble seeing the goal here for a baddie.

Net-net the D1 look is civ for me, given the benefit of more hindsight.

Day 2, TH defended sig pretty hard, based mostly on tone, and sussed NANOOK fairly hard as well. I thought this looked bad at the time, and it was a big source of my conflict with TH/dunya and me viewing them as a pair. Again, though, the theory that they were setting NANOOK up for a D3 mislynch for revenge on sig fell apart when NANOOK was NKed.

This post:

DDL/Nanook/Nutella mafia? I think it's possible.

could be bad in my book - the angle would be sussing DDL and distancing from nutella, which as luck would have it would be a good look when nutella was vigged. So I really don't know where to go with this - I don't think it's impossible for a baddie to say these things, just the NANOOK part is hard for me to fit into any kind of narrative.

The exchange with Tony on Night 2 is interesting. Tony says TH pocketed him, and TH explains why they're reading Tony town.

I just want y’all to know I’ve requested to sub out. This isn’t and shouldn’t be considered to be AI. Yes, I know I just said in the last game that subbing out is probably scum. Whatever.

As to my reads: I have no clue what’s happening in this game.
I think there are safe scum teams (speed, TH, G-Man) that don’t require much mental energy, but I think I’ve been successfully pocketed by TH. Sloonei and Nutella could round out something with Nanook. I don’t think there’s anything worth calling a towncore, but associative reads can carry pretty far I think. Lynch one scum.

I can explain why you're towncore to me: You changed your read of me favorably at a time where you didn't have to and wouldn't have made sense to do so if you were scum. I can link it if you like, it felt extremely townie to me.

Sloonei might be bad
But I think I’m wrong
To keep pursuing THead
Who Keeps chugging along

Here's the post where TSP changed his read on me. It doesn't appear to have been prompted by anything specific, it was not a reaction to anything specific. It feels like TSP genuinely changed his mind in a way that a scum player wouldn't think to do.

I do think this is a potential scum move, but it also just fits a general pattern this game of TH reading people as the alignment that those people think TH is, as dunya pointed out today. I'm genuinely not sure if that's alignment-indicative, and would look for input from Sloon/DDL on how it fits TH's meta.

D3 does not look as good for TH IMO. Susses MP7, but then also latches on to MP's tinfoil of G-Man:

I actually think G-Man may be saying what he's saying and still be scum, by the way. Not sold on either way, but I'm a bit nervous with people clearing him and a lot of people suddenly being OK with lynching me instead.

I was going to mention this if no one else did. I think I've cleared G-Man too easily for this.

Which to me kind of seems like a baddie going after easy targets.

------- This is the point where I realized dunya had double-claimed. In the rest of this post, I'm going to tinfoil TH as hard as I can and see if a dunya/TH squad can come close to making as much sense as dunya/Speed. Will be trying to read TH as negative as I can and compare that against the narrative for dunya/Speed that I think fits very well. ---------

To recap from Day 3, TH:

1) Goes hard after MP, whom we now know to be civ.
2) Tinfoils DDL/G-Man based on a post from MP, who seemed to be their top suspect at the time(!), and which we now know to be false.
3) Tries to keep G-Man's info out of the thread, which could be construed as a baddie move to give us less to work with.

And yes I agree gman should keep his info to himself, I was just greedy and wanted to know more civs for my PoE. Plus after sig I don't trust that someone who should claim will do so but I hope that doesn't happen again

4) Asks me and dunya for our opinions on MP, then shades me in their next post!

I need to hear from @dunya and @Russtifinko before I feel confident in this wagon; I trust their takes on MP

If someone in the towncore is secretly bad, it's probably Russti

5) Went after dunya after she 180ed them, and then stopped sussing me. Looking at this in the most negative possible light, this "trouble in paradise" could be 2 baddies agreeing to bus each other in an effort to sow confusion, and for TH to pocket me. However, if they were gonna do that, it would kind of make sense for dunya to pocket Speed too and set up a false dichotomy, and it hasn't seemed like she's doing that.


Day 4, they:

1) Suggested a no lynch to go to LYLO.

Should we No Lynch and go to Lylo?

As someone else pointed out, going to LYLO doesn't really help us because it doesn't narrow the POE - seems like a foregone conclusion that DDL or Sloon dies tomorrow. I guess it could be a baddie trying to buy more time to argue themselves out of a hole? That would seem to benefit a TH/Speed team more than a TH/dunya team, though, since Speed seemed to have more suspicion at the time.

2) Has mentioned numerous times that they are civ and that they've made a lot of mistakes this game.

The main objective of those type of posts seems to be avoiding being lynched. Which, fair, because if TH really is civ and we lynch them, it's game over. But if I'm tinfoiling, it does seem like TH's suspicions today have been fairly reactionary. TH has given reasons for that, but I do think that generally, "anyone but me" is a bad-ish look.



Re-reading TH, I suppose I can see a world where they're bad with dunya and manufactured a rift to sow confusion. Overall, I find this less compelling than the dunya/Speed narrative above, but it's technically possible. I would be very unlikely to vote TH today, but assuming we get a baddie today I would try not to get too tunneled/pocketed.

[Russtifinko]

If the dream thing was actually just flavor/a fun way to word things, then I apologize. I consider myself really bad at reading hints, as I mentioned to Sloonei before, but even I thought this was definitely hinting at an infodump. It was one of the reasons I thought a Jack lynch was ok even though my thread read on Speed was stronger.

I clearly wasn't the only one, either - Sloon cited it as a reason for his vote.

Sloonei, did you think dunya's dream was info-related? Or broader question for everyone: is there an inside thing with dunya having really strong intuition that just hits her sometimes, that I haven't seen before because this is my first time playing with her? Because I feel like there are at best 3 possibilities, even giving the most possible benefit of the doubt:

1) dunya claimed info on Jack
2) dunya literally had an irl dream that Jack was bad, and dunya is know to have amazing intuition/read the future through dreams sometimes, so people went with it. (If it sounds like this one is teasing, I swear that is not my intention. I do believe some people are amazing at processing things like mafia subconsciously and something like this could happen. Just if that's a known thing with you, no one made it clear to me when you said it.)
3) The stuff about dreaming was flavor text that was misinterpreted by at least me and Sloonei, and possibly others.

[Turnip Head]

Dunya's last post about me rang really true for the first time in a while. I think I was within my rights to suspect her based on her pushing of my lynch and what that meant for our PoE, but because I'd reeeeeealllly like to win this game, I think I'd like to pursue a new option, which gives me some breathing room to put dunya back in my townreads and catch the real scum.

[VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine

This guy is actually bad and somehow accidentally got cleared. His distancing with Nutella was calculated and faked, and he's currently twiddling his thumbs until me and dunya run out the clock. This is the
mafia equivalent of "the butler did it".

I am also down to do No Lynch and hash this out for another 48 hours so I can pull quotes and build a real case and deliberate amongst us.

[dunya]

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

[Turnip Head]

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

That's not how you spell "S-L-O-O-N-E-I"

[dunya]

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

That's not how you spell "S-L-O-O-N-E-I"

I love you.

But speed is bad no matter what, right? Let's not lose the game to someone who didn't read the thread. If only DDL had another vig shot... (and didnt shoot me with it )

Roses are red
Violets are blue
My curiosity is fed
With thoughts of u

R u playing with my mind
Or are you sad that I'm fucked
Either way you're too kind
But russ tunnelling me truly sucked

I don't wanna fight anymore
Or lose to speed
ISOs are such a chore
When you don't want to read

But he doesn't care about who's bad
Or pretending to read the game
And that makes Dunia sad
And to lose to speed would be lame

I'm voting for speedchuck
Cos he's not very helpful anyway
Sloons is town as fuck
So I just can't vote him today

[Sloonei]

I never believed that dunya’s dream was role-related.

Spoiler: show

Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

Ignore my vote call at the end of the ISO post. I believe in dunya' dreams. [VOTE: tonyjackprime] aubergine

Also I'm willing to buy G-man's claim to have info right now.

Moved back to Tony/Jack.
MP's wagon is on track,
But dunya had a dream:
We can lynch Jack for the meme.

I'm only half joking. I have so much faith in dunya that I'm not ruling out the possibility that she unconsciously solved this game.

And on that point, I do not believe that dunya would make something like that up as mafia. If there’s a reason to clear her, it’s the dream.

[Russtifinko]

I never believed that dunya’s dream was role-related.

Spoiler: show

Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

Ignore my vote call at the end of the ISO post. I believe in dunya' dreams. [VOTE: tonyjackprime] aubergine

Also I'm willing to buy G-man's claim to have info right now.

Moved back to Tony/Jack.
MP's wagon is on track,
But dunya had a dream:
We can lynch Jack for the meme.

I'm only half joking. I have so much faith in dunya that I'm not ruling out the possibility that she unconsciously solved this game.

And on that point, I do not believe that dunya would make something like that up as mafia. If there’s a reason to clear her, it’s the dream.

Alright, fair enough. I guess I misinterpreted that, then.

Color me puzzled in that case that it seemed to make the difference between Speed and TonyJack yesterday, in that case. I get people believing in dunya's intuition, but it's consistent with a dunya/Speed team. It's also relatively low-accountability; saying your dream was wrong is harder to nail someone on than thread-based analysis of interactions.