Banjo-Kazooie Mafia [GAME OVER]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I never believed that dunya’s dream was role-related.

Spoiler: show

Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

Ignore my vote call at the end of the ISO post. I believe in dunya' dreams. [VOTE: tonyjackprime] aubergine

Also I'm willing to buy G-man's claim to have info right now.

Moved back to Tony/Jack.
MP's wagon is on track,
But dunya had a dream:
We can lynch Jack for the meme.

I'm only half joking. I have so much faith in dunya that I'm not ruling out the possibility that she unconsciously solved this game.

And on that point, I do not believe that dunya would make something like that up as mafia. If there’s a reason to clear her, it’s the dream.

Hmm why not

[speedchuck]

I don't believe both of these role claims.

I also don't believe TH/Dunya are aligned. If so, this is the greatest distancing game ever played.

Russ/TH.
Russ/dunya.

I was leaning Dunya before the role claims.
Now I'd be leaning TH, but that last appeal to Russti didn't feel like w/w.

I'd probably go with Dunya. Her widening of her POE feels the most agenda driven, especially in the face of claims.

So Russ is definitely mafia to you, but you'll go with dunya anyway. Doesn't make sense.

Talking about between Russ/TH and Russ/Dunya. Just didn't spell it out.

[speedchuck]

What was Sloonei's mech clear again?

[speedchuck]

I had a dream that I was almost out of posts today. That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

[speedchuck]

Spoiler: show

Pondering the ponderable...

Is Sloonei truly cleared? His claim followed on the tails of MP's claim. Sloonei claims to have targeted the exact same two people in the exact same order as MP. There's no way to verify this claim because Sloonei claims to be able to benefit from his power. According to his claim, his intended targets couldn't be reached. No one has received a benefit, so no one can technically confirm Sloonei's claim.

Based on everything you've seen out of Sloonei in this game aside from his claim, are you willing to proceed with the game clearing him as a lock-civ?

It's a difference of a POE of five or a POE of four.

I'll post vote stuff in the morning.

I made a post preempting this exact tinfoil.
link.

The context may not be entirely clear there.

My role allows me to target a player and provide them with some sort of bonus. I'm keeping it intentionally vague out of an abundance of caution. No need to tell anyone what my role may or may not be capable of. I have every reason to expect that the player would be made aware of the effects of my role. I targeted Russ on Night 1 and dunya on Night 2, as I've said. But as is now confirmed, MP's role prevented me from successfully targeting either one of them:

During each night phase, you may select a player. That player will be unable to perform any night actions and will also be immune to targeting from all night actions.

In this post, from Day 2, I was attempting to drop a hint to Russtifinko about the bonus he should have received from me targeting him when he was beginning to voice suspicion of me. I hope the hint is pretty obvious now that I'm pointing it out.

And if you want to take it a step further and say that I could be Russ's partner and known that MP hit him with that role, I would have then also needed to have known the exact mechanics of MP's role, and I would also need to be dropping an inane clue ~72 hours in advance in anticipation that MP might claim someday and I might be able to use that claim to my ever so slight advantage. But then, I didn't even use the claim to my advantage. I used it to clear MP at a time when he was at least partially at risk of being lynched, although that threat had mostly died down by the time I was able to confirm him for myself. But that's dunya's fault for being in the wrong timezone.

But above all that: I caught nutella.

This isn't perfectly airtight, as Sloonei could have some other type of visiting role that was noticeably blocked by MP, and have made up this gifting gambit (especially since we have no evidence for it any of the nights). I'm not certain such wild gambits are a Sloonei thing to do as scum, especially with an already-claimed watcher in the game?

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: Russtifinko] aubergine

In every world where Sloonei and I are town, Russ is scum.

[Turnip Head]

[VOTE: No Lynch] aubergine

We are clearly not coming to a consensus today and a mislynch loses us the game. I believe Sloonei and probably speedchuck are mafia and would like another 72 hours to discuss the case.

[Russtifinko]

I mean, I guess it's theoretically possible that Sloonei pre-emptively breadcrumbed a fake role to me days in advance. Occam's Razor says he's telling the truth, so I think the chances are small.

I guess I'm willing to lose to a baddie Sloonei on the small chance he came up with that. Like if so, well played dude, ya got me. I don't think it's likely enough to put him in my POE.

[Russtifinko]

TH, I guess going another day doesn't really hurt us, although I'm not sure what benefit additional discussion would have without any new data points. Here's where I stand right now.

Probabilities of People Being Bad:
Speed - 90%
dunya - 80%
TH - 29%
Sloon - 1%
DDL - 0%

If the only viable lynches for today end up being people I'm <80% sure of, I'm with you on No Lynch. If Speed or dunya can go down today, I think it's our best shot.

[Russtifinko]

I actually even think Sloon is lower than 1% tbh. Not only would he have had to breadcrumb a fake role claim, he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged. It just seems WAY to improbable, and if it is true, Sloon needs to be in the Champions game because he's literally the best baddie I've ever seen.

[speedchuck]

he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged.

No one looking at her? I'm pretty certain she was in several scumread lists before Sloonei sat on her.

[Russtifinko]

he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged.

No one looking at her? I'm pretty certain she was in several scumread lists before Sloonei sat on her.

I mean, it's possible some people had her scum in GTH or something. But unless you can show me an instance in thread of someone pressuring her/sussing her in thread in a sustained way, I don't think that carries much weight.

Full disclosure, since I already think there's a 90% chance you're bad and a less than 1% chance Sloon is, you're unlikely to convince me. I also don''t even think you really believe Sloon is bad - you said above that it's me and one of dunya or TH. However, this is your best chance to move my vote.

[dunya]

How curious now speed is a bigger scum read for Russti than me. Laughing my ass off.

L

M

A

O



No, I won't do no lynch.

[dunya]

[VOTE: No Lynch] aubergine

We are clearly not coming to a consensus today and a mislynch loses us the game. I believe Sloonei and probably speedchuck are mafia and would like another 72 hours to discuss the case.

If speed is bad in any universe why not speed today

[dunya]

I would be voting russ with speed for him talking over all of us tbh and saying things like "nothing u say will change my mind on anyone" in MYLO which is really friggin antitown

But I can't see him and nutella as teammates, cant see the confusion over how posts are accumulated by jiggys as some ploy of distancing between them...And I can't see him and TH as teammates because of the whole condescending tone fiasco which seems way too elaborate as well. if someone can tell me that's something Russti does as mafia, I'll be voting for him faster than you can say .......

I actually want to know why [mention]Sloonei[/mention] has not wavered on his townread of Russti.

Also I want a moment of silence for [mention]colonialbob[/mention]. I now know how crap he felt that one game and understand the relief he felt when he finally got mislynched.

[dunya]

Sloonei has made me nervous this phase too [mention]Turnip Head[/mention]

His silence sucks.

What if you're right. What if it's sloon and russ and we are f u c k e d

[Turnip Head]

Yeah but I think sloon is indeed bad and was distancing with Nutella
I'm at work til deadline but if we have another day I'll try to prove it. We could have more time to get it right here, we should take it.

[dunya]

i gotta stick to my gut, sloonei is town.

speed is not town in any world i live in.

my vote stays there. i won't be any more wiser next phase with ddl or sloonei out of the rat race.

[Sloonei]

I actually want to know why @Sloonei has not wavered on his townread of Russti.

I have. I might vote for him today.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei has made me nervous this phase too @Turnip Head

His silence sucks.

What if you're right. What if it's sloon and russ and we are f u c k e d

I'm finishing my thesis, and then I gotta leave my apartment at the end of the week. This game hasn't been my top priority the last couple days. I didn't want to burn posts while I wasn't able to really focus.

That said, I'm here now and hoping to make a decision. I'm gonna need y'all to work with me.

[Turnip Head]

[VOTE: speed ] aubergine since I'm the only one who wants no Lynch

[Sloonei]

I'm scanning some ISOs and Russ/speedchuck is feeling like a viable pair.

I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Sloonei, did you think dunya's dream was info-related? Or broader question for everyone: is there an inside thing with dunya having really strong intuition that just hits her sometimes, that I haven't seen before because this is my first time playing with her? Because I feel like there are at best 3 possibilities, even giving the most possible benefit of the doubt:

Yes.

Dunya is like the best scumhunter of the internet.

She just knows people's alignments.

That said I didn't think the dream thing was anything but a joke myself.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[VOTE: No Lynch] aubergine

We are clearly not coming to a consensus today and a mislynch loses us the game. I believe Sloonei and probably speedchuck are mafia and would like another 72 hours to discuss the case.

A no lynch probably kills one of me or sloonei and puts us in an even more difficult situation.

It's just not a good option.

Play to win, not to delay your defeat.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[VOTE: No Lynch] aubergine

We are clearly not coming to a consensus today and a mislynch loses us the game. I believe Sloonei and probably speedchuck are mafia and would like another 72 hours to discuss the case.

If speed is bad in any universe why not speed today

If speed flips scum I'm reconsidering lynching TH.

And with that said

[VOTE: speed] aubergine

Dunya has looked alright in her recent defenses. Her progression is still weird but I can see someone like her just changing her mind like that. Speed has done nothing to placate me susupicions.

[Sloonei]

I've voted for Russ.

Dunya is out of the running. She has looked the most sincere in her efforts today: I get the sense that she is actually trying to read everybody, and I don't think she makes up the dream about Jack if she's bad (both ethically and strategically). Between TH and speed, I would lean toward speed. Turnip Head has no reason to push a tinfoil suspicion against me at this stage unless it's honest.

When I look at Russ, I see a player who is just trying to run out the clock on this day phase. He opened with the position that dunya and speed are bad. Here we are nearly 48 hours later and he has not budged. He ISO'd TH and came to a limp conclusion that a dunya/TH team is possible... but offers no conclusion on the possibility of a TH/speedchuck pairing. dunya is at the forefront of Russ' pairing. And she's the non-confirmed player I feel best about by far.

I also noted that Russ made a big fuss about speed around Days 2/3, but speed never paid it any mind, and Russ was all the while content to watch the Jack lynch go through while spending posts/effort casing speedchuck.

[Turnip Head]

I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

Me and Russ have done the most solving since day 3 from my POV

[Turnip Head]

[VOTE: No Lynch] aubergine

We are clearly not coming to a consensus today and a mislynch loses us the game. I believe Sloonei and probably speedchuck are mafia and would like another 72 hours to discuss the case.

If speed is bad in any universe why not speed today

If speed flips scum I'm reconsidering lynching TH.

And with that said

[VOTE: speed] aubergine

Dunya has looked alright in her recent defenses. Her progression is still weird but I can see someone like her just changing her mind like that. Speed has done nothing to placate me susupicions.

That doesn't make sense, if I was scum with speed I just would have lynched dunya today, I certainly wouldn't be pushing no Lynch at Mylo

And your wrong btw, getting to Lylo is the definitive move for town here, I bet the host will agree with me post-game (see poll question)

[Sloonei]

I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

Me and Russ have done the most solving since day 3 from my POV

I see Russ making posts, but I don't see those as active solving. He has reinforced the reads he already had. By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me. You've gone back and forth on each other. I sense real uncertainty. I don't get that from russ.

Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?

[Turnip Head]

I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

Me and Russ have done the most solving since day 3 from my POV

I see Russ making posts, but I don't see those as active solving. He has reinforced the reads he already had. By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me. You've gone back and forth on each other. I sense real uncertainty. I don't get that from russ.

Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?

I don't think dunya's dream is alignment indicative. Too much is being made of that situation, she was just being silly and possibly actually just had a silly dream

[Sloonei]

What is the best post russ has made since the end of Day 3? The one that showed the most honest effort to solve this game?

[Turnip Head]

3 town on the speedchuck wagon atm. Sloonei is alone on a Russ wagon

[speedchuck]

3 town on the speedchuck wagon atm. Sloonei is alone on a Russ wagon

Only because I forgot to vote.

[Turnip Head]

What is the best post russ has made since the end of Day 3? The one that showed the most honest effort to solve this game?

He was actively trying to figure out which of me and dunya to trust because he's assuming you're a civvie, so by Poe of elimination he had to figure me and dunya out. I don't think you are actually town but I don't fault Russ for making that assumption.

[Sloonei]

3 town on the speedchuck wagon atm. Sloonei is alone on a Russ wagon

speedchuck/russ is quite clearly the team I believe in.

drop this tinfoil.

[Sloonei]

What is the best post russ has made since the end of Day 3? The one that showed the most honest effort to solve this game?

He was actively trying to figure out which of me and dunya to trust because he's assuming you're a civvie, so by Poe of elimination he had to figure me and dunya out. I don't think you are actually town but I don't fault Russ for making that assumption.

Show me.

[Turnip Head]

I will later but my break's almost over and I'm hungry

[Sloonei]

day ends in an hour. I'll say my own things if you're pressed for time.

[speedchuck]

Unfortunately, I haven't been here enough to do what I wanted to do today. I have my suspicions, and I have posts you can all read in this topic. Posts that some of you read before flopping on me.

5PM EOD sucks. If I die I die. I hope you guys make an informed decision.

[Turnip Head]

day ends in an hour. I'll say my own things if you're pressed for time.

Say whatever you want lol

[dunya]

Unfortunately, I haven't been here enough to do what I wanted to do today. I have my suspicions, and I have posts you can all read in this topic. Posts that some of you read before flopping on me.

5PM EOD sucks. If I die I die. I hope you guys make an informed decision.

doubling down on my vote with this post of yours. you have given us 0 reason to townread you. i have spoken on your behalf in this game more than u have bothered to and i blame myself for you surviving this long tbh. i am exceedingly ok with my vote.

i think i have one more post before i reach my limit. but i just wanna say reading everything i also feel better about TH this day phase.

speed x russ are bad.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

If he's not bad then something truly wacky is afoot and I don't feel like prolonging that game anyway.

I'm compiling a post about why I think it's Russ over dunya, but I don't want that to take up the rest of the day and I'm also growing ever so slightly less confident in that read as I go. I'll probably wait til we see speed's flip before I share it now anyway.

[Sloonei]

What if it's dunya/russ?

[dunya]

i would lynch russ because he's been a pain in my thigh all game, but after speed flips, i want to go over TH and russ again and make sure my bias isn't affecting my judgment

i just know it isn't TH/Russ anymore. so speed is the best choice today.

[Russtifinko]

I've voted for Russ.

Dunya is out of the running. She has looked the most sincere in her efforts today: I get the sense that she is actually trying to read everybody, and I don't think she makes up the dream about Jack if she's bad (both ethically and strategically). Between TH and speed, I would lean toward speed. Turnip Head has no reason to push a tinfoil suspicion against me at this stage unless it's honest.

When I look at Russ, I see a player who is just trying to run out the clock on this day phase. He opened with the position that dunya and speed are bad. Here we are nearly 48 hours later and he has not budged. He ISO'd TH and came to a limp conclusion that a dunya/TH team is possible... but offers no conclusion on the possibility of a TH/speedchuck pairing. dunya is at the forefront of Russ' pairing. And she's the non-confirmed player I feel best about by far.

I also noted that Russ made a big fuss about speed around Days 2/3, but speed never paid it any mind, and Russ was all the while content to watch the Jack lynch go through while spending posts/effort casing speedchuck.

I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

Me and Russ have done the most solving since day 3 from my POV

I see Russ making posts, but I don't see those as active solving. He has reinforced the reads he already had. By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me. You've gone back and forth on each other. I sense real uncertainty. I don't get that from russ.

Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?

Sloon, these posts are chock-full of mischaracterizations.

**"He ISO'd TH and came to a limp conclusion that a dunya/TH team is possible... but offers no conclusion on the possibility of a TH/speedchuck pairing." You'll recall that I concluded this post while I thought dunya had double-claimed, which in my mind made her 100% bad. That would mean a TH/Speed pairing was literally impossible, so of course I didn't consider it. Now that you and DDL have said you didn't think she was claiming, I've gone back and read TH, but there's just very little to go on. TH had only addressed or talked directly about Speed in 3 posts prior to Night 3, and they were all soft defenses or town reads. Is it possible? Sure. But it doesn't seem even close to the level of defending dunya has done for Speed, so I conclude it is less likely. If we successfully lynch Speed today and he flips bad, hopefully that gives us more to go on.

**"Russ made a big fuss about speed around Days 2/3, but speed never paid it any mind, and Russ was all the while content to watch the Jack lynch go through while spending posts/effort casing speedchuck."
This is false on multiple fronts: I ISO'ed both TonyJack and Speed that day, and concluded that I felt bad about both of them, but slightly worse about Speed. I wasn't "content to watch the Jack lynch go through" - actively stated in thread that I agreed with it. Also, I misinterpreted dunya's dream post to mean she had info about TonyJack, so even though I personally felt a bit worse about Speed based on those ISOs, the difference wasn't huge and I didn't think I had a shot at convincing anyone else to. If I had been 100% convinced TonyJack was town and Speed was not, I'd have pushed harder, but you're misrepresenting my position.

**"By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me." You literally breadcrumbed your role to me, personally, days in advance, and as you put it, caught nutella. Would it be less suspicious if I took all of that evidence and said "Oh yeah, the evidence that Sloon is good is overhwleming. But you know what though? He smells bad, let's all put him in the POE." This makes no sense.

**"Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?" You said in an earlier post that she WASN'T claiming, now in this post you say she is. You can't have it both ways, dude.

Again, because of info and because of how and when you went after nutella, it's still going to take more than this to convince me you're bad. But if I didn't know better, these posts would probably convince me you were mafia. You're removing all context in these quotes and twisting my words to make it sound like I said them under different circumstances. I think you need to consider the possibility that you're tunneling me.

[Russtifinko]

[VOTE: Speed.] aubergine

He's my highest-probability baddie, and he probably would've been lynched yesterday if not for dunya's intuition/claim/whatever it was. Better late than never.

If it somehow is dunya/TH, then holy hell have you guys played an amazing game. Hats off in that case, but I think we're ifnally on the right track.

[Russtifinko]

Sloonei, did you think dunya's dream was info-related? Or broader question for everyone: is there an inside thing with dunya having really strong intuition that just hits her sometimes, that I haven't seen before because this is my first time playing with her? Because I feel like there are at best 3 possibilities, even giving the most possible benefit of the doubt:

Yes.

Dunya is like the best scumhunter of the internet.

She just knows people's alignments.

That said I didn't think the dream thing was anything but a joke myself.

Oops, forgot to combine this with my response to Sloon.

Alright, clearly I didn't know this and misread her post. I rescind the point.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Im here. I will not catch up

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Day 4 has ended.

Oh whatever, see if I care
It's just a minor boss
A scarier beast you wouldn't dare
I'm still ready for another civilian loss!

speedchuck was lynched. He was:

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

You are Nipper.



You have no special abilities.

You gain one Jiggy each time you vote for a successful lynch of a civilian, and two Jiggies each time you vote for a successful lynch of a mafioso.

You may safely claim to be Clanker.



You are aligned with the mafia and win the game when your team permanently matches or overtakes the voting power of the civilians.

Spoiler: show

Night 4 is underway. You have 24 hours to get your actions to me. I will update the post count ceilings shortly.

[Sloonei]

Cool. I can post my russ thoughts now without fearing that i'll look like a doofus.
-------------------------------------------------------------

My stance is that I don't believe Russ actually looks like he's solving the game today. Here is why:

Spoiler: show

RIP TonyJack and MP

yeah, broken record and all that. it's been fun playing with you, really. i hope you know that. and i look forward to playing more games with you.

The feeling is mutual.

Have we given proper consideration to the possibility that G-man's claim is made up?

I hadn't considering all the other ones have been solid so far. His was the most roundabout, though, and he came out looking worst from my nutella ISO.

Have we given proper consideration to the possibility that G-man's claim is made up?

Yes.

I'm still wrapping my head over how fucking Mr. Vile has a major role.

And continue to thing it's a good idea for G-Man to reveal who the vig is in order to confirm himself. The vig themselves could just say out loud that they are for/against it, if they haven't already.

Ok guys sorry for indirectly causing this.

If I ask anyone to claim your role/character, please don't claim your method for obatining the jiggies, thank you.

Honestly, at this point I just think you should stop asking people to claim altogether. Most importantly at night. I get claiming during the day if there's a potential pivotal vote coming, but doing it at night just paints targets on people's backs and help mafia figure out power roles. I don't see any world where pushing so hard for this helps us.

I guess the big question for me tomorrow is, do we go for the obvious lynch (Speed) again. It hasn't worked for us so far this game, but someone has to be bad, and I still can't get over the soft sig defense being more or less his only contribution. G-Man would be my other top contender - his claim had stopped me going after him, but Sloonei is right that it could be fake.

For others, I still wish someone would engage me on dunya, and DDL's insistence on claiming has me feeling bad about him.

Linki: Hmm..so that makes my top baddie reads for tomorrow 2 pairs. Either G-Man and DDL are two ballsy as hell baddies, or it's dunya/Speed. My nutella ISO had DDL looking pretty good for suspecting her when there wasn't much pressure on her, so I'd lean the latter.

Double linki: Sloonei I've been arguing dunya is bad all game. Maybe someone engage those points?

From the middle of Night 3, Russ is committed to dunya/speedchuck as his pairing. He entertains the possibility of G-man DDL when I raised it, but I only raised it so that it could be immediately dismissed. What's more important here is that Russtifinko is committed to dunya/speedchuck before this current day phase began. Granted, the only other option he can really consider is Turnip Head, but I can make an argument that this is a point against him as well: if he is bad, he can't do anything to counter DDL's claim and has to accept it. I've also played my hand and forced him to play his with regards to my role claim, and he's committed to a town read on me. A civilian might be more skeptical of one or both of those claims here.

The counterargument to that is that a mafioso wants as many mislynch options available as possible. But I think more than that, the mafioso wants to survive the day. If Russ starts challenging DDL or myself here, he might come out looking bad. He just needs one mislynch. The safe strategy is to wrap one civilian up with his teammate and push the two as a pair: speedchuck and dunya.

Spoiler: show

well fuck it. im sorry jack, really fucking sorry. sorry tony.

i wish i could vote TH out right now.

Wait what?

More detail on how you came ot this conclusion, please. I have felt like I've been fighting you and TH in thread all game long, so for you to get this read on him suddenly shatters my worldview.

@speedchuck can you give us something to work with like, a role claim even at this point. your character name? who do you suspect? why?

I can give both, if people want. But I don't think it's that helpful. I'll give more thoughts tomorrow unless I get vigged.

Dunya seems to have lost her cool. She's acting a little manic, that's my shtick not hers :P

I'm not bad, and if I make it through the night I'll do everything I can to prove it.

Sorry Jack (and MP)

Same.

Uhhhhhh, what now??????? Is this a baddie slip?

I do not buy this reaction to dunya's abrupt change on TH: dunya's change of heart is exactly the kind of thing I would expect from a civilian at this stage in this game. Things are going wrong, and desperation is forcing us to re-examine the reads we've held onto. dunya demonstrates that directly. Russ resists it, even questions it. The questioning itself rings a bit flat to me as well. He requests "more info" on the read and says that it's "shattered his worldview", but... I don't see any evidence of that being true or of him caring about what dunya has to say. Because everything he proceeds to say in his later posts just reinforces the same reads he had before. This post looks like it exists purely to shade the two players in his POE. In fact, the exchange with dunya here is probably the most succinct crystallization of why I suspect him over her. dunya is frantic, her mind is changing. Russ is calm and collected and not budging.

Spoiler: show

Well, I thought I posted this when I was on earlier today, but apparently it didn't go through.

did you read the thread? everyone i iso'd individually made me feel worse about TH tbh, starting with sloonei's iso of nutella. i have no doubt in my mind they are bad now. and i'm pretty sold on you being their teammate. if jack had flipped bad, TH coulda been good.

I feel like I let dunya down somehow cuz she did a complete 180 on me. Dunya what did I do?

Clearly I have read the thread, and clearly I'm not the only person confused about where this came from.

Calling it now: baddies are dunya/Speed. I now think dunya was buddying TH and is flipping on him now that victory is in sight.


Since then: RIP G-Man. dunya's sudden flip on TH feels to me like a baddie lashing out, and her reasoning for it is weak. TH "hasn't done anything" lately?? Why are you being dismissive of TH now? Where's the dunya who reached out to TH when they were getting frustrated and felt like no one was hearing them and said "I hear you?"

It feels like scum dunya has realized if she can lead a mislynch today she wins, so she moved to flip on the easiest remaining townie to mislynch and can't come up with a reason to justify it. With Sloon and DDL confirmed, Speed being her teammate, and her suspicion of me not taking off, TH is her only option left.

It's funny if we look at nutella russti and TH. They've all scum read 1 of them and townread 2.

If you're trying to make a point, make it. Are you saying the baddie move is to townread yourself and one teammate and scum read the other? If so, what did your GTH with Speed and nutella look like? This is being presented as helpful analysis, but it's just weak shade hoping someone else picks it up and runs with it.

FWIW, I also don't buy the fake "if I'm gone after tonight" bit. The POE for today is 4 people, max, and dunya knew she was one of them. No baddie in their right minds kills her last night. Trying to act like a worried civ.

This is more of the same. He accuses dunya of "lashing out" to lead a mislynch on the easiest target remaining in TH. I've explained why I see something different. By contrast, this looks like Russ is just hammering home on the same target that he has been since we mislynched Jack. What happened to that "shattered worldview" from earlier? What worldview was being shattered if dunya was already his top scum read?

Spoiler: show

I'm Kazooie and am vanilla.

Agree that if true, dunya's claim is never a baddie role. However, for exactly that reason, I also don't think we can believe it. No evidence of it being true because she hasn't voted in a close lynch vote yet, and it's exactly what a baddie would claim to stay alive one more day. I think both Speed and dunya are bad and showing a burst of energy here to win the day. Brilliant baddie move to claim a vote-manipulation role in MYLO.

Linki: I actually totally sympathize wiht you not reading MP's post, dunya. I am a hardliner against infor-dumping when it isn't allowed. Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates? Or that you still think we are and if so you just won't trust TH after this game?

dunya still bad. role claim brilliant play. okay. Claiming vanilla is also something mafia could very easily do there. There's nothing to counter or disprove.

I acknowledge that what I am doing here might be perceived as not dissimilar to how Russ has handled dunya: I am framing everything he does in a negative light. But my issue with him is that he has apparently held this position since the end of Day 3 and nothing has changed that. I see no evidence that he is actively considering other options.

Spoiler: show

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

....parts of this actually make sense to me. I still don't understand your 180 on Speed and think it's baddie-teammate indicative, but I'll read through TH again and see if a Speed/TH team fits.

@Turnip Head @speedchuck @dunya @Russtifinko

My vote is going to be decided by your actions. Ignoring POE and role claims is hard to do at this stage of the game, but if I ask you to do exactly that, what are your reads on each of the other players listed here? Based purely on behavior/votes/in-thread actions, who are your suspects and who are your town reads? And why?

I don't think it's reasonable for you to ask us to ignore info regarding you and DDL - your breadcrumb on your role and the fact that DDL was corroborated by G-Man make you both literally 100% lock town for me, as in, if either of you are bad then we aren't even playing the game of mafia, because something has been massively screwed up. Other than on you two, though, I'll do my best. Obviously I'm town and not in my own POE, so that leaves dunya/Speed/TH. I'm not going to go back and quote extensively or (re-)do full ISOs here, but just bascially explain my thought process.

My strong gut feeling is that the baddie team is Speed/dunya, so I'll start with them. In Speed's case, my read isn't so much associations/thread interactions with others, because Speed hasn't really done a whole lot of that in this game. There's just very little to go on in general. I keep going back to this post from Mac:

They're a pigeon pair of slanking wolves I think. They've both made just two posts. Speedchuck just put in a mighty effort in the other game, roles wolf here, can't muster up the energy to switch modes. G-Man just doesn't like playing Mafia, let alone being Mafia.

Now obviously, Mac also suspected G-Man here, and we know he was good. I don't think it invalidates the point, though: there are a lot of people who just have trouble getting into a game of mafia as baddies or feel demoralized/unmotivated by it, partly because the "solving the game" aspect is gone and partly because they don't like deceiving people. MP7 comes to mind in that regard, and I think nutella showed it in this game. I don't know Speed all that well, so can't say in terms of his personality, but I think it makes sense that would be more likely to be in play for him here if he just put in a heroic effort as a civ in another game.

The thing that originally stuck out to me, though, was his behavior on D2. According to Speed, he was barely keeping up with the thread. Despite that, he found a lot of time to tell people not to lynch sig. He never offered an alternate candidate, though, nor even a thread-based reason he thought sig was good. It was all just weak, gut-based reasoning, and he had to know it wouldn't be likely to convince anyone. I think he did it so he could say "I told you so" later on for civ cred, while expending minimal effort, and I don't really see a civ angle to it - if he legitimately believed sig was civ and he was too, the civ move is to advocate harder at the very least, and push someone he actually thought was mafia at best. You might remember from my ISO of her that nutella had a very similar defense of G-Man, and I think it makes sense as a baddie play.

For dunya, we've been at eacj other's throats since D1, starting when I sussed her for posting 5 times in a row and calling MP town much earlier and with much more certainty than I thought was reasonable, almost like she knew he was. I thought she was buddying him. She OMGUSed me, then immediately backed off me and pivoted to talking about Mac, who had the most votes at the time. As I looked back at that exchange just now, I was reminded of this, too:

dunya seems her typical self
but she's not firmly on my town shelf
because I know she can be wily scum
but she's not under my voting thumb

Does anyone have some berries and whipped cream I can put on this waffle?

I should've pressed harder on this at the time and also picked up on it once again when I ISOed nutella. It's so waffly and reads to me like a baddie teammate soft-defending another before suspicion on them really picks up, but leaving wiggle room to distance later if necessary.

Beyond nutella, though, 4-5 other people had gut civ leans on her, and then Epi said he thought her going after Mac and Sloon was town-dunya behavior. I also think people were kind of tuning out our exchanges by now. Night 2, I thought she was trying to set up an easy NANOOK revenge lynch:

if nanook is bad, he's good to lynch. if he's town, then everything he did was not a team-effort or actually inspired by scum hunting reasons but a personal vendetta which is anti-town and i have issues with that.

Can you see how this sounds a little bit like "sig is either bad and won't claim because he was caught, or not bad and not trying hard enough for me, therefore I am ok with lynching him either way"? You're making the argument you're going after NANOOK for.

but that theory fell apart when NANOOK was NKed. And then, when I ISOed nutella, she came out looking a bit better overall. So I was feeling less certain, and wondering if I actually had been tunneling her as others implied.

Then in yesterday's lynch, I started suspecting her more primarily based on her interactions with Speed, who I thought was bad. As I said at the time, she:

1) hard defended Speed
2) said "ah, whatever. not my job to defend someone who isn't playing. I'm voting Speed"
3) voted speed
4) changed her vote to Jack without announcing it

And then today, she went from fully defending TH and townreading him when I had some testy exchanges with dunya/TH in thread, to saying that now she thinks he's my baddie teammate. I think over yesterday and today, the progressions on her reads have made no sense. I do, however, think they fit with baddie motivations. I think she and Speed realized it was MYLO, and then she tried to find who she thought would be the weakest link for a mislynch and go after them. She clearly landed on TH.

When I asked for explanation recently, I did think parts of her explanation made sense. However, as I reread now, I'm coming back to this

Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1

dunya adamantly did NOT suss TH for their beef with Mac, nor their interactions with TonyJack. Like I said, she's taken their side in thread multiple times. This makes it sound like there was a suss that built slowly over time by observing irrational behavior from TH, but that's revisionist history - we observed her sticking up for them in thread.

Admittedly, my read on dunya at this point is based partly on her strange behavior around the Speed lynch, and I think large parts of this narrative only work if they're a baddie pair. However, I'm trying to keep in mind that it's still possible I'm tunneling her and TH is the other baddie. I'm going to reread TH this evening, and I'll do my best to keep an open mind about it, but it may be tough because I do feel pretty strongly about the other two.

This is where I can see a glimmer of hope for Russ being town. He admits that he might be tunneling on dunya. That's what I'd want to see from a civilian in this position, though part of me feels like it's too little too late, and this is just a piece of corrective lip service. He has been too firmly in the anti-dunya camp as the day has progressed, and here is the first instance where he seems to acknowledge another possibility. So he ISOs Turnip Head:

Spoiler: show

TH:

Mac seems more interested in reading townies than finding scum

I've voted for him

TH placed a few different votes D1, including MP, dunya, and finally, Mac.

I actually think I missed their dunya vote D1 - in my mind, the two of them have essentially been a pair all game (which may not be fair), so I was surprised to see it. The other notable thing from D1 is that they called sig was civ, which as I've said looks like a baddie move designed to get civ cred to me, given how things have played out this game. However, I think in this case, that's counteracted by the Mac vote, which gives accountability and put them at some risk. Same for this post:

A reminder that Mac was leading the poll by a full vote before the dogpile on sig occurred

A baddie could definitely write this to push for a Mac revenge lynch if sig had been lynched D1, but as we know, there was a counter-dogpile after. If there had been significant baddie votes in the Mac train, I could see this as clever distancing, but given that Epi and G-Man were the most pivotal votes there, I have trouble seeing the goal here for a baddie.

Net-net the D1 look is civ for me, given the benefit of more hindsight.

Day 2, TH defended sig pretty hard, based mostly on tone, and sussed NANOOK fairly hard as well. I thought this looked bad at the time, and it was a big source of my conflict with TH/dunya and me viewing them as a pair. Again, though, the theory that they were setting NANOOK up for a D3 mislynch for revenge on sig fell apart when NANOOK was NKed.

This post:

DDL/Nanook/Nutella mafia? I think it's possible.

could be bad in my book - the angle would be sussing DDL and distancing from nutella, which as luck would have it would be a good look when nutella was vigged. So I really don't know where to go with this - I don't think it's impossible for a baddie to say these things, just the NANOOK part is hard for me to fit into any kind of narrative.

The exchange with Tony on Night 2 is interesting. Tony says TH pocketed him, and TH explains why they're reading Tony town.

I just want y’all to know I’ve requested to sub out. This isn’t and shouldn’t be considered to be AI. Yes, I know I just said in the last game that subbing out is probably scum. Whatever.

As to my reads: I have no clue what’s happening in this game.
I think there are safe scum teams (speed, TH, G-Man) that don’t require much mental energy, but I think I’ve been successfully pocketed by TH. Sloonei and Nutella could round out something with Nanook. I don’t think there’s anything worth calling a towncore, but associative reads can carry pretty far I think. Lynch one scum.

I can explain why you're towncore to me: You changed your read of me favorably at a time where you didn't have to and wouldn't have made sense to do so if you were scum. I can link it if you like, it felt extremely townie to me.

Sloonei might be bad
But I think I’m wrong
To keep pursuing THead
Who Keeps chugging along

Here's the post where TSP changed his read on me. It doesn't appear to have been prompted by anything specific, it was not a reaction to anything specific. It feels like TSP genuinely changed his mind in a way that a scum player wouldn't think to do.

I do think this is a potential scum move, but it also just fits a general pattern this game of TH reading people as the alignment that those people think TH is, as dunya pointed out today. I'm genuinely not sure if that's alignment-indicative, and would look for input from Sloon/DDL on how it fits TH's meta.

D3 does not look as good for TH IMO. Susses MP7, but then also latches on to MP's tinfoil of G-Man:

I actually think G-Man may be saying what he's saying and still be scum, by the way. Not sold on either way, but I'm a bit nervous with people clearing him and a lot of people suddenly being OK with lynching me instead.

I was going to mention this if no one else did. I think I've cleared G-Man too easily for this.

Which to me kind of seems like a baddie going after easy targets.

------- This is the point where I realized dunya had double-claimed. In the rest of this post, I'm going to tinfoil TH as hard as I can and see if a dunya/TH squad can come close to making as much sense as dunya/Speed. Will be trying to read TH as negative as I can and compare that against the narrative for dunya/Speed that I think fits very well. ---------

To recap from Day 3, TH:

1) Goes hard after MP, whom we now know to be civ.
2) Tinfoils DDL/G-Man based on a post from MP, who seemed to be their top suspect at the time(!), and which we now know to be false.
3) Tries to keep G-Man's info out of the thread, which could be construed as a baddie move to give us less to work with.

And yes I agree gman should keep his info to himself, I was just greedy and wanted to know more civs for my PoE. Plus after sig I don't trust that someone who should claim will do so but I hope that doesn't happen again

4) Asks me and dunya for our opinions on MP, then shades me in their next post!

I need to hear from @dunya and @Russtifinko before I feel confident in this wagon; I trust their takes on MP

If someone in the towncore is secretly bad, it's probably Russti

5) Went after dunya after she 180ed them, and then stopped sussing me. Looking at this in the most negative possible light, this "trouble in paradise" could be 2 baddies agreeing to bus each other in an effort to sow confusion, and for TH to pocket me. However, if they were gonna do that, it would kind of make sense for dunya to pocket Speed too and set up a false dichotomy, and it hasn't seemed like she's doing that.


Day 4, they:

1) Suggested a no lynch to go to LYLO.

Should we No Lynch and go to Lylo?

As someone else pointed out, going to LYLO doesn't really help us because it doesn't narrow the POE - seems like a foregone conclusion that DDL or Sloon dies tomorrow. I guess it could be a baddie trying to buy more time to argue themselves out of a hole? That would seem to benefit a TH/Speed team more than a TH/dunya team, though, since Speed seemed to have more suspicion at the time.

2) Has mentioned numerous times that they are civ and that they've made a lot of mistakes this game.

The main objective of those type of posts seems to be avoiding being lynched. Which, fair, because if TH really is civ and we lynch them, it's game over. But if I'm tinfoiling, it does seem like TH's suspicions today have been fairly reactionary. TH has given reasons for that, but I do think that generally, "anyone but me" is a bad-ish look.



Re-reading TH, I suppose I can see a world where they're bad with dunya and manufactured a rift to sow confusion. Overall, I find this less compelling than the dunya/Speed narrative above, but it's technically possible. I would be very unlikely to vote TH today, but assuming we get a baddie today I would try not to get too tunneled/pocketed.

The conclusion is precisely what I might expect from mafia in this position: "sure, maybe we can consider TH tomorrow if it comes to that, but not today." The door is open just enough that Russ can keep a little bit of uncertainty going into a Day 5 if it comes to that, but not so much that he is forced to change the gameplan here. He has stuck to his guns and pushed the dunya narrative from before the phase started.


I do have some reservations about all of this. For one, I am not too familiar with Russ as a player. We've been in a few games together, but not for quite a long time. So I don't really know what he'd look like as either alignment in this situation. Also, it's also viable that the mafia strategy is to simply look frantic at this stage of the game. If you can sell yourself as a civilian for 48 hours, you can lock up the win. If that is the case, then one of TH or dunya is more likely to be bad than Russ. But all things being equal, Russ looks the least like what I'd expect from a civilian in this situation.

I'll also tack on here, since Russ has already accused me of "twisting words": I don't care about that. I have to do that to make reads. Any time I am trying to make a case one way or another, I have to ask myself on every post if I can believe that player would say those words as each alignment. If I can imagine them saying something as either alignments, I'll share my argument for reading it as scum. I try to be fair and share both arguments when they both exist. But "twisting words" is a necessary part of my process. It always is and always has been.