Banjo-Kazooie Mafia [GAME OVER]

[Turnip Head]

And based on that breadcrumb, what was the good reason you were supposed to have had for not suspecting sloonei, [mention]Russtifinko[/mention] ?

[Russtifinko]

And based on that breadcrumb, what was the good reason you were supposed to have had for not suspecting sloonei, @Russtifinko ?

Well, I suppose you have a point. Sloonei didn't come out and say he had targeted me and dunya for gifts (hinted in Post 844, said it straight out in Post 873) until after MP had said he put us in jail (Post 823).

But if you have BTSC with him now, that would mean his role is confirmed, right? If so, a gift-giving role seems more likely to be good than bad.

Sloon, really would like ot hear from you on other gifts you can give. I have thoughts on what it means for your alignment, but don't want to share before you give details.

[Sloonei]

I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

The limited utility of the role where it only works upon death does not mesh with anything else in the game, or with the style of role i'd expect to see in a jay game.

Why doesn't it mesh with the game? I think it fits fine, and more importantly, it is my actual role. I think sloonei's role is the one that doesn't fit, and the revealed mafia so far is noticeably missing a manipulator/disruptor role, which I think can fit for Sloonei.

Russtifinko, can you point me towards Sloonei's breadcrumb?

This is a pretty standard town role.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei can you give other items besides temporary BTSC? If so, what? And what did you try to give to me and dunya? (Again, assuming all of this doesn't relate to earning jiggies. If it does, don't answer.)

Yes. BTSC is actually the one item I didn’t want TH to get. I wanted them to deny that they received anything.

I don’t choose what I send. So I don’t know what I was trying to send you. Just something. I’ll check with the host to make sure it’s okay for me to share the other items.

[Turnip Head]

I wouldn't call btsc with sloon a gift lmao. I still can't prove his role or alignment.

I trust Russ and dunya more than sloonei but that's just my unprofessional opinion.

[Sloonei]

I literally confirmed my role to you. There can’t possibly be anything more that I could do. I claimed my role, I demonstrated how I’d hinted at this role days earlier, I used my claim to clear a player I was going to vote for otherwise, and then I targeted you and you received the most undeniable confirmation of my role’s power that you could have possibly seen.

Amy further posts spent talking about this are a waste. If it’s not turnip head, it’s dunya or russ. You guys didn’t seem to care that I had my vote on dunya earlier.

[dunya]

what if sloonei's role is literally taking someone into btsc, but as a sort of scum roleblocker. hence why turnip's wouldn't work. but it didn't work on me and russ cos MP had us jailkept.

that is my tinfoil of the day.

[Turnip Head]

Alright well let's sort out Russ and dunya then. I think they've both played well and if either is bad I'd say they deserve the win, but I'd obviously rather the town wins so let's try to figure it out.

[Sloonei]

what if sloonei's role is literally taking someone into btsc, but as a sort of scum roleblocker. hence why turnip's wouldn't work. but it didn't work on me and russ cos MP had us jailkept.

that is my tinfoil of the day.

When has a role like that ever existed?
When has a role like that ever existed in a game hosted by Jay?
How could a role like that exist in this game right now? Where town is on a post restriction, and the host made careful considerations to otherwise balance things out to benefit the town. This role would be game breaking.

[dunya]

ive had no time to play this game, but be assured i'll be reading everyone living plus their teammates today and tomorrow.

linki: why did your role fail, TH? did you ask the host?

[Turnip Head]

what if sloonei's role is literally taking someone into btsc, but as a sort of scum roleblocker. hence why turnip's wouldn't work. but it didn't work on me and russ cos MP had us jailkept.

that is my tinfoil of the day.

I mean it doesn't sound crazy to me lol. It could be this is exactly what happened.

Linking: I did ask the host, he shrugged

[dunya]

what if sloonei's role is literally taking someone into btsc, but as a sort of scum roleblocker. hence why turnip's wouldn't work. but it didn't work on me and russ cos MP had us jailkept.

that is my tinfoil of the day.

When has a role like that ever existed?
When has a role like that ever existed in a game hosted by Jay?
How could a role like that exist in this game right now? Where town is on a post restriction, and the host made careful considerations to otherwise balance things out to benefit the town. This role would be game breaking.

i don't actually believe it, i'm typing it out to spell out how ridiculous it sounds.

i don't think sloonei is bad.

i am 100% sure it's between russ and TH and that's what i am going to figure out to the best of my ability.

but sloonei, something occurred to me: can you ask the host if your victim is roleblocked when you take them to BTSC because that could seriously help solve the game without me having to like, read everyone and their mother again. if TH was roleblocked cos they're in BTSC with you, they couldn't have killed DDL.

[Sloonei]

I highly highly highly doubt it, but I’ll ask.

[dunya]

if it's not explicitly stated in your role pm, i guess the host will shrug as well. plus i assume the btsc starts in the day phase and not at night so i dunno. worth asking anyway.

[Sloonei]

The only way it makes sense for TH not to have been the kill last night is if the remaining mafia member is a roleblocker. That’s not an uncommon role to see. But it’s also the only role that scum TH could use to explain their lack of result. So I’m of two minds there. I’ll try to sort out dunya and russ at some point.

[dunya]

i mean, if sig is mafia he's treated you the same way so maybe i AM wrong and the mafia team have all picked 1 person to tunnel the fuck out of in the thread

also hi speedchuck. what are your thoughts on anyone other than sig. top three "i feel bad about you" people?

Depends a lot on Sig's flip. I have an eye on TH, but if sig is bad, I have a hard time seeing them as a teammate. Same for nanook.

I've been skimming through D1 and I'm interested in the lynch results. If sig is mafia, mac could have been a save. if he's town, I really suspect the people who avoided both of those wagons and parked their vote somewhere useless.

So

TH, Nanook, and Sig are big ones to look at.
DDL, nutella, TSP, russ for sig-town, because possible TMI. (I'd have to read closer to see who)
Maybe Sloonei on the mac wagon if sig is scum?

That might seem a little inconclusive but I practically replaced into my own role D2, so. Busy weekend. My thoughts are a lot of places and I'm just spitballin.

first mention of TH. TH is "big one to look at"

nutella / russ paired in second category because of TMI.

i don't see anywhere where turnip addressed this suspicion on him because....he didn't feel threatened by speed? and speed never explained why (to be fair, speed literally didn't explain much apart from sig/nanook this whole game).

[dunya]

The only way it makes sense for TH not to have been the kill last night is if the remaining mafia member is a roleblocker. That’s not an uncommon role to see. But it’s also the only role that scum TH could use to explain their lack of result. So I’m of two minds there. I’ll try to sort out dunya and russ at some point.

no one's actions have failed the whole game though, so i feel like it's a stretch to add another PR to the mix to justify a turnip PR. it's like doing more mind gymnastics than i think we're meant to do.

[Sloonei]

The other items I can distribute are:
A single jiggy
Two jiggies
1-shot roleblock
1-shot vote subtraction

The roleblock is still in my pocket as far as I know, and either way it’s not an item I would personally be able to use. As far as I know, my BTSC with Turnip is the only successful shot I’ve taken all game and all four of these items are sitting unused.
The BTSC ability does not interfere with the targeted player’s role in any way.

I checked to make sure the vote subtraction would not usable at lylo before I targeted TH. To be clear, I went for TH as a sort of bluff call. I didn’t believe their claim (a death-watcher should almost always be the nightkill in a 4-civilian pool), and wanted to confirm myself to them for a reaction.

[Sloonei]

The only way it makes sense for TH not to have been the kill last night is if the remaining mafia member is a roleblocker. That’s not an uncommon role to see. But it’s also the only role that scum TH could use to explain their lack of result. So I’m of two minds there. I’ll try to sort out dunya and russ at some point.

no one's actions have failed the whole game though, so i feel like it's a stretch to add another PR to the mix to justify a turnip PR. it's like doing more mind gymnastics than i think we're meant to do.

My actions failed, but those are already accounted for.

[dunya]

anyone who still gives weight to my number of posts as a genuine reason to scum read can kindly kiss my backside. had enough of that meta and spent the last games changing it. dunya posting 200 posts on day 1 is dead. over. deal with it. and especially on a 25 post limit game.

my read on mp is tone-based. he seems genuine. even though he has mostly been on the defence, because people were hitting him from all sides, his defences are all sincere and coming from a place of truth, i feel. and with that, hes still took the time to game solve and keep up. Scum mp will be more focused on defence and getting out of people's dog piles. i am an intuition-based player, and i can see town behind MP posts.

i am however beginning to feel less certain of a town sloonei here.

I dunno how to read russ, and i will at some point quote his massive post when I'm not on my phone and reply.

But that's not what I did fam
I was talking about the mindset ham
Of rationing your posts to get near the quota lamb
And anyways your overzealous defense of MP makes me skeptical too damn

I don't understand this and I need someone to vote for other than MP so [VOTE: th] aubergine I don't buy your reasoning for suspecting dunya

I'll roleclaim. I'm Leaky and I have a semi-useful role that requires me to have good instincts, so I'm not all that hopeful about that, but I'm town.

any reason you chose to claim??
Nanook's calling out sig by name
Don't know why you'd just randomly out
when not in direct danger, what's that about

(2)

alright let's give this a go


Dragon D. Luffy town
dunya town
Epignosis scum
G-Man town
M Plus 7 town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME scum
Russtifinko town
sig town
Sloonei town
speedchuck scum
TonyStarkPrime scum
Turnip Head scum

Yeah you're scum

all these and nutella never actually really pursued turnip in any way. seems like gradual fake distancing that she can use later on to build up a case and say she suspected them from the beginning. the first one where she voted for them because she didn't understand their vote on me was one of the first things that made me suspect HER for. so i guess not feeling threatened by turnip flipping on her made sense why she threw that vote on them to attempt to buddy me.

i'll check and see what her interactions with russ like like next

[dunya]

[VOTE: turboop] aubergine for now.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Since this is the final battle I'm going to post some final boss music to add to the mood.

[Russtifinko]

I'll throw this out there: If TH is bad, claiming no result last night is a weird move. If they were bad, they'd just claim it was one of us and the game is basically won, right? I think it has a ring of honesty.

I guess you could tinfoil that other claims haven't worked out great for us this game, so maybe they were paranoid about that and thought it was safer to just sow general confusion. However, overall it looks good to me.

Sloon, thanks for being so forthcoming about your role. I also think it's a somewhat good look for you - it would seem very elaborate to make all that up. I agree that a baddie that roleblocks and puts someone in BTSC seems too strong, as well.

I'm going to be reading everyone again this evening - probably won't do full ISOs, but I might post quotes here and there that I think are particularly relevant. I'm going to try to more or less disregard claim stuff as I do. We haven't seen any evidence of TH or dunya's claims, and Sloon's seems legit but could hypothetically exist for a baddie in some form, even if it's far-fetched. I still think we oughta be able to crack this based on the thread.

TH, out of curiosity what's your thoughts on a No Lynch and forcing another day of LYLO? You proposed it yesterday no ended up voting, wondering if you still feel the same.

[Sloonei]

I agree with the point about TH’s claim of no result today. It makes more sense for a mafioso to just say that it was one of us. But my paranoia regarding that is that TH’s plan all along was to pin it on me, but that was blown up the moment we wound up in BTSC together.

But I owe it to everyone in this game to re-evaluate before I make a decision.

[Sloonei]

There’s also this to consider: Turnip Head’s role claim is super powerful in late game, the kind of thing that can easily win the game for town in our current situation. The only way it makes sense for that role to survive last night is for there to be a roleblocker on the other side. I brought this up as a point to consider in TH’s favor earlier, but now I’m doing the opposite: if Turnip Head claims to have a result today, the lie becomes obvious: the mafia player had no way of stopping that role, and thus there’s no way they should have been left alive. TH has to claim no result.

[dunya]

-Other Thoughts-
Gonna disagree with Mac - I think Epi is genuinely scumhunting in his big D1 post about MP and Sloonei, and I don't really care about someone "burning through" their D0 posts.

On the other hand, although NANOOK's rhymes are probably the dopest so far, he's burning through D1 posts, which IMO is a different matter than the D0 ones. I also hate the vote on sig - I think it was bandwagony and poorly justified.

MP did the same thing as sig with the ambivalent response to post count limits, and I also don't think that is a big deal - knowing MP, he is probably really excited to be playing this but massively busy, so I bet he vascillates between wanting infinite posts and not having time to read infinite posts. I think the Omerta thing is really the only decent point in Epi's case against MP, but Epi says: "But that isn't important."

Post count ceilings for Day 1:

26 - Dragon D. Luffy
28 - dunya
34 - Epignosis
26 - G-Man
29 - M Plus 7
28 - MacDougall
30 - NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
30 - nutella
29 - Russtifinko
28 - sig
31 - Sloonei
26 - speedchuck
29 - TonyStarkPrime
28 - Turnip Head

Jiggy pursuits are now underway, and your 4-liners actually count.

I am an idiot - should have realized this way sooner. It looks like however many posts we made on D0 got added to our D1 totals. So for example, I posted 4 times on D0 so got 25+4 to work with today. Epi posted 9 times D0, so gets 25+9 today.

This makes my point from earlier even more relevant - "wasting" posts on D0 is actually a good thing and not just neutral, but wasting posts D1 is still bad. I don't mean that in an alignment sense, necessarily - I mean it just gives you more/less agency in the game.

Ohh, that makes a lot more sense now, Epi, so thank you. See, I assumed from the get-go that we had 25 on Day 0, then it reset to a separate 25 (or, in this case Jay's updated things) on Day 1, and so I was posting considering that fact.

Yall are overthinking the post count thing holy shit

Everyone has 25 posts for Day 1

The Day 0 posts don't matter

Jay was posting our post counts as reference so he could see when someone's total would show that they had posted 25 times on Day 1

Jesus.

I think this is wrong....what use would it be to use to show our eventual hypothetical post counts?? I'm 99% sure JJJ told us the D1 post limit each player has, which was influenced by post count on D0. Maybe our host can weigh in to clarify his previous post so we're all on the same page?

i cannot get over these posts. nutella's frustration at russti's continued misinterpretation of the post count rules seems super genuine. like the most genuine nutella post out of all her iso lol. i cannot for the life of me ignore that these interactions exist and they make it properly difficult for me to believe nutella and russti would have any kind of btsc. i just don't think russti can be nutella's teammate.

then theres this:

On a separate note, I think we should NOT publicly acknowledge when people are out of posts in the future. If there are gonna be more people like Mac who are easy lynch targets late in the day, we should at least make the baddies figure it out for themselves instead of putting targets on people's back for them.

basically publicly disowning what nutella did publicly to mac. i just don't see what good scum russti would have thought would come out of this post. it seems like a very townie thing to say, even if it doesn't really matter too much in the long run, y'dig? good look.

[dunya]

I'll roleclaim. I'm Leaky and I have a semi-useful role that requires me to have good instincts, so I'm not all that hopeful about that, but I'm town.

I'll roleclaim. I'm Leaky and I have a semi-useful role that requires me to have good instincts, so I'm not all that hopeful about that, but I'm town.

any reason you chose to claim??
Nanook's calling out sig by name
Don't know why you'd just randomly out
when not in direct danger, what's that about

(2)

I might not be in immediate danger but I'm on a lot of scum lists. Felt like a good idea to claim, no one needs to waste any time scumreading me

so, looking at this 3-succession posts, seems rather manufactured. especially nutella's poem. it's like it was planned together in btsc and she was waiting for TH to post so she could question them. so TH hinted towards their role from day 2. they literally described it as "need good instincts"-- so excuse me while i struggle to see how they weren't killed with all the cop paranoia, as DDL put it, of this scum team. nutella's poem was like the opening to give TH room to explain why they claimed. nutella didn't go anywhere or do anything with the response she got from TH which makes it feel all the more directionless and pointless.

[dunya]

i'm still confused why ddl though. why not sloonei last night.

[Turnip Head]

I'll throw this out there: If TH is bad, claiming no result last night is a weird move. If they were bad, they'd just claim it was one of us and the game is basically won, right? I think it has a ring of honesty.

I guess you could tinfoil that other claims haven't worked out great for us this game, so maybe they were paranoid about that and thought it was safer to just sow general confusion. However, overall it looks good to me.

Sloon, thanks for being so forthcoming about your role. I also think it's a somewhat good look for you - it would seem very elaborate to make all that up. I agree that a baddie that roleblocks and puts someone in BTSC seems too strong, as well.

I'm going to be reading everyone again this evening - probably won't do full ISOs, but I might post quotes here and there that I think are particularly relevant. I'm going to try to more or less disregard claim stuff as I do. We haven't seen any evidence of TH or dunya's claims, and Sloon's seems legit but could hypothetically exist for a baddie in some form, even if it's far-fetched. I still think we oughta be able to crack this based on the thread.

TH, out of curiosity what's your thoughts on a No Lynch and forcing another day of LYLO? You proposed it yesterday no ended up voting, wondering if you still feel the same.

Lylo is our best play imo. As long as town votes together in Lylo we win.

[Turnip Head]

I don't really have a good defense for how Nutella and speedchuck treated me. As for my side of the story, I typically don't respond to every person who suspects me. If I did that I'd never have time to talk about anything else. It's unfortunate that two players who I kind of ignored were bad, but I'm town.

[dunya]

If you're town, tell me why Russ isn't.

[Turnip Head]

Idk Russti seems pretty town to me. I'm sure I could paint a picture that makes him look bad, but I just don't think he is.

[Turnip Head]

I feel like a town!sloon would be cognizant of the fact that "breadcrumbing" his role to Russti or whatever doesn't actually clear him. Like he'd understand that it is not irrefutable proof of his role. He'd instead say things like "I know this doesn't actually clear me". Sloonei has been acting like his breadcrumbs are above reproof, when he would know that isn't actually true because there was no corroborating evidence. That's what makes me think he's hiding behind his claim and trying to be sneaky.

Yes I currently have btsc with him for some reason, and yes that would be a powerful mafia role, but it'd also be a powerful town role, so it's powerful either way. It's certainly not game-breaking like he insinuated.

Sloon dealing in absolutes based on murky evidence makes me not want to trust him.

[Turnip Head]

[Russtifinko]

Thoughts on dunya:

Doing a fresh reread of D3 and beyond here. I'm hoping that it'll help with any tunneling. Just highlighting things that feel interesting/relevant, not necessarily with an overarching theme.

In case I'm gone tonight, good luck guys

Remember, TH is bad.

Russti or speed teammate. I feel it's Russ but get those claims and do those amazing isos sloonster.

I still think a lot about this post is weird. Thinking she would be NK'ed when there are power roles and confirmed civs, the certainty TH is bad.

As I read back through, I could trace a little better how the flip on TH happened - it wasn't quite as abrupt as I originally thought just reading the thread in real time. I'm not sure if that improves my impression of it - I still disagree with the assertion that TH wasn't contributing, and it felt out of character for dunya. So it could still have been contrived. However, there's a stronger thread of thought I can follow.

and i am certain now russti and TH are bad. russti has this amazing ability to project badness into your posts. i have never seen it before since golden. very impressive stuff. i'll probably go into more depth about why these 2 are teammates, but i bet my goat on it.

dunya, you never elaborated on this post (I think you wrote that you didn't feel like playing that way). If I'm looking at this from a dunya-town perspective, it's kind of a bummer, but I get it. It would have been useful to see the case, but I'm a little burned out from this game, and you've said you are, particularly from me going after you.

If I look at it from a dunya-bad perspective, this post serves a couple of purposes. It's a soft defense of Speed by offering other candidates, but without ever tying dunya to Speed or even saying his name. One could argue that as you saw the REO Speedwagon gaining steam, you were forced to back off of this and vote him after all. It also makes you look like you're doing more than you are - I actually was surprised when I read back and you never made this case.

I keep coming back to this weird certainty you had that TH would be lynched....I never regarded them as a top-tier (like top 2) lynch candidate until today. But you made a few posts about it like you were certain it would happen (and certain of TH flipping bad). I feel like this is a very important point, but I'm having trouble processing whether it's good or bad. A baddie would be able to project certainty about the flip. But a baddie would also not have the power dunya claimed, making the lynch less certain. On the other hand, I don't see how civ dunya would feel certain about either one. dunya and I clearly think very differently, though, so if she were a civ I'd just have to chalk it up to different perspectives.

Spoiler: show

Linki: TH, argue with DDL all you want about how to play the game. You guys are fighting and I get that. But is it really unreasonable for me (or anyone for that matter) to ask you to make some contribution, whatever it may be, no matter how small, to trying to find baddies? Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that not what you signed up for?

Do you think I am not looking for baddies? I think it is quite unfair to accuse me of not looking for baddies - when I AM - and then act like I don't know what our objective is.

I'm not arguing with DDL about how to play the game fwiw. I am arguing with DDL because I think he is playing from a mafia POV. It's weird that you, Russti, seem to think that's not what I'm doing.

Like I feel my posts aren't really being read and that's whats frustrating. It makes me feel misunderstood when I feel like I am making clear and salient points that are being ignored, and the reaction to me is that I'm not doing enough

if these were all distancing, i'd never trust TH again in my life tbh.

@dunya, when you posted this, did you think they were distancing? That seems to be the unspoken implication, and you were trying to associate me and TH earlier in the day. However, it also sort of seems like something you don't think TH is really capable of. Trying to understand if this was case-building or the beginning of a change of mind. It did look like you back off the me/TH teammates theory later in the day.

[TH] said something to mac when mac was suspecting [them] and [they] did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and [they] keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in [them] whenever [they do] say that. either i trust [them], or [they think] i'm bad.

(Corrected for pronouns.)
I actually agree about this, though you worded it better than I had been. TH has done this a few times, where how I read it, it bordered on "if you don't agree with me you're bad". I thought it was the only one bothered by this, since you didn't call it out at the time.

I think that it's a SUPER bad look to be saying that, and often results in railroading mislynches. However, TH has done it very consistenly throughout this game, as dunya pointed out. I almost feel like a baddie would realize that and not do it, or a teammate would tell them to lay off it in BTSC. I am really torn on this.

If mafia doesn't kill TH next night they are suicidal. His role is even stronger than G-Man's. And they have shown extreme degrees of cop fear anyway.

This makes me a little more willing to leave TH alive. To see if he doesn't get killed.

That said, if he is mafia, he's going to come with result that will implicate someone, and then the game will boil down to him versus someone else.

While if he is killed, me and Sloonei won't, so it's still 1v1.

So I'm leaning on lynching one of speed or dunya instead.

I don't understand this. If you lunch me it's game over. There is no next day. So if you really think it's me with one of the other three (speed, TH or Russ), keep your vote on me.

I'm still pondering this, too. I think DDL was right that the baddies have had extreme cop paranoia this game, and aside from the possibility of DDL having another vig shot, TH was the most powerful role left. This leads to 2 possibilities:

1) TH is bad and was lying.
2) The baddies both have a roleblock and believed one of the following: DDL had a vig shot left, OR TH would be easier to mislead than DDL today.

If we assume TH is good, this would imply that the baddie is someone whom DDL suspected and TH did not. Something to read for when I review them.

Linki: haha TH. The gifs have been on point all game, and that's my favorite one so far.

[Turnip Head]

See, look how townie Russ looks in that post. He's being so considerate and deliberate. This guy's town.

I think DDL was killed instead of me because DDL was outed town (so can't be mislynched), baddies had a way to block me, and I could potentially be mislynched.

At the time that dunya suspected me I thought she was bad because I wasn't considering Sloonei to be in my PoE. So she almost had to be bad because she was trying to mislynch me and I didn't suspect Russti (and again I wasn't considering that sloonei could be bad instead). It was a paranoid way of thinking, but I also think dunya was being paranoid when she suspected me and Russ, so I can empathize with that.

Everyone left has played really really well. I just think me, Russ and dunya feel the towniest, and if either of you are bad, you're basically a genius. I think sloonei feels the least townie and is only cleared by dubious mechanics which can't be verified, but that means he's ALSO a genius if he's bad.

[Russtifinko]

Speedchuck hasn't voted at all? I really doubt he would do that if he were bad tbh :-/

If @speedchuck votes, my plan as of right now is to lynch Jack. If votes stay where they are that's what's gonna happen.

TH, apologies that I missed your reasoning - could you refresh me on what made you prefer a Jack lynch over Speed?

Don't fall for her pretty words Russti, stay the course. The baddie team is speed and dunya. We could lynch speed first if you're more comfortable with that.

[I've made my stance on all these players clear and taking POE out of the equation feels disingenuous to me. I think Russ did a good job of summing up what feels dishonest about dunya, and if she's bad, speedchuck is the only teammate that fits.

The first part of this worked out pretty well, and I do think the Speed/dunya story still holds up.

if I was scum with speed I just would have lynched dunya today, I certainly wouldn't be pushing no Lynch at Mylo

And your wrong btw, getting to Lylo is the definitive move for town here, I bet the host will agree with me post-game (see poll question)

Sloon and dunya, what are your thoughts on going to LYLO, or the fact that TH suggested it? No one has really engaged TH on this.

I don't really have a good defense for how Nutella and speedchuck treated me. As for my side of the story, I typically don't respond to every person who suspects me. If I did that I'd never have time to talk about anything else. It's unfortunate that two players who I kind of ignored were bad, but I'm town.

I think this post is a good look. To me, the classic civ play when accused is to ignore it and keep hunting baddies, up until the point where you think you're gonna be mislynched or it will derail the game.

Every other town role is basic and simple except for Sloonei's, which is wacky and chaotic.

I feel like a town!sloon would be cognizant of the fact that "breadcrumbing" his role to Russti or whatever doesn't actually clear him. Like he'd understand that it is not irrefutable proof of his role. He'd instead say things like "I know this doesn't actually clear me". Sloonei has been acting like his breadcrumbs are above reproof, when he would know that isn't actually true because there was no corroborating evidence. That's what makes me think he's hiding behind his claim and trying to be sneaky.

Yes I currently have btsc with him for some reason, and yes that would be a powerful mafia role, but it'd also be a powerful town role, so it's powerful either way. It's certainly not game-breaking like he insinuated.

Sloon dealing in absolutes based on murky evidence makes me not want to trust him.

These are good points. I still think that overall, I have the most info-related reason to trust Sloon of the 3 of you, but you're making a compelling case that I shouldn't 100% rely on that to be alignment-confirming.

It sounds like you trust Sloon less than dunya or me right now, would you say that's the case?

It's interesting - my dunya read-through actually had me thinking more about TH and vice versa. I guess I'd say that reading their posts in a vacuum, both players feel pretty ok since D3 overall, albeit each with a few moments that seem weird. Reading TH makes me feel a bit worse about dunya, though again, I'm trying not to tunnel on that. But I wouldn't say reading dunya makes me feel worse about TH.

Linki: TH, hard agree on your sentiment that whoever is bad here has played really well. Reading Sloon next, will let you know if I agree on that part.

[Sloonei]

See, look how townie Russ looks in that post. He's being so considerate and deliberate. This guy's town.

I think DDL was killed instead of me because DDL was outed town (so can't be mislynched), baddies had a way to block me, and I could potentially be mislynched.

At the time that dunya suspected me I thought she was bad because I wasn't considering Sloonei to be in my PoE. So she almost had to be bad because she was trying to mislynch me and I didn't suspect Russti (and again I wasn't considering that sloonei could be bad instead). It was a paranoid way of thinking, but I also think dunya was being paranoid when she suspected me and Russ, so I can empathize with that.

Everyone left has played really really well. I just think me, Russ and dunya feel the towniest, and if either of you are bad, you're basically a genius. I think sloonei feels the least townie and is only cleared by dubious mechanics which can't be verified, but that means he's ALSO a genius if he's bad.

We are literally in BTSC right now and you’re referring to it as “dubious mechanics.” I am not declaring myself cleared; others have done that for me. My “breadcrumbing” cleared me in the eyes of others because of the context in which it happened. This has been explained multiple times already. My roleclaim came up of my own volition because I realized it could clear MP, a player I had been previously trying to lynch. The role itself is cumbersome and inconvenient to claim if false. You now have 100% incontestable verification that my claim has not been false. I struggle to believe that a civilian turnip head could actually be convinced that I am mafia right now. I actually think dunya might be bad, but I can’t shake myself free from the simplest answer, which is that you are bad and our BTSC completely ruined your plan for the day.

I’ve had a busier day than planned so I haven’t got around to reviewing things. I don’t know if/when I will do that.

[Turnip Head]

Just because we have btsc doesn't mean your role does what you say it does, OR that you're town. It could just as easily be a mafia role. I have no proof of your towniness.

[Russtifinko]

No quote for this, and I don't think it will surprise anyone: Sloon started this game out very uncertain, but on D3 he took a very aggressive and confident tone.

For civ-Sloon, the explanation is 2 things: 1) what he said - he got more used to the format and found his footing, and 2) having a baddie get caught gave him more leads and a burst of energy.

For bad-Sloon, the explanation is he freaked out when nutella died unexpectedly and realized they had to switch up their play to react. Speed didn't really do this, but I guess different people can react differently. If I'm really tinfoiling here, I'd note that heavy suspicion was directed a G-Man and MP, who both got confirmed shortly after, and he called very early that one of Speed/TonyJack was bad, but didn't say this one. This is a baddie move I've seen occasionally, where a baddie will put a teammate in a group of suspicious people, then push to lynch the civs in that group. It simulataneously leads to mislynches and distances.

However, that is fairly tinfoily, and I'd say overall the civ-Sloon explanation fits better.

that potentially puts us at mylo tomorrow. just a heads up.

Sloon was actually the first person to realize MYLO. Obviously that's just simple math, but (a pretty tinfoily) part of me wonders if mafia would be more attuned to that.

Night 3 - if I'm going even more tinfoily, G-Man was the one who first brought up that Sloon's claim couldn't 100% clear him. G-Man was killed that night.

Day 4 - In contrast to D3, an overall less aggressive tone IMO. The first part of the day he never posted more than one-liners, though he did go after me pretty hard at the end of the day. That is most likely because Speed was the presumptive lynch, though, so not necessarily alignment-indicative. It could be the same effect as we saw with the sig lynch in D2. And the case he posted on me right after that lynch was massive, which makes me think he was still in baddie-hunting mode. He posted something D1 about associative reads being bad after he messed up guessing teammates for a hypothetical baddie Mac, so this fits with that. The tinfoil here would be he didn't want to seem to against lynching a teammate, but came out aggressively to direct a mislynch after the coast was clear on that.

N4-present:

I’ll answer questions during the day. I don’t expect to die at this point. I’m probably leaning toward a vote for Turnip.

I hadn't really noticed before, but this is OMGUS, right? TH doubted your claim, then you said you thought they were bad?

I can't help but draw a parallel here with what dunya accused TH of - thinking people are good/bad based on what they think you are. The counterpoint TH made actually rings true here, too: from a civ-Sloon perspective, this is the only thing that makes sense, because a baddie is the only person incentivized to drive mislynches. For someone who doesn't know your alignment, though, it falls a little flat.

I agree with the point about TH’s claim of no result today. It makes more sense for a mafioso to just say that it was one of us. But my paranoia regarding that is that TH’s plan all along was to pin it on me, but that was blown up the moment we wound up in BTSC together.

But I owe it to everyone in this game to re-evaluate before I make a decision.

This is the thing you've said most recently that I have the most trouble understanding. Why would BTSC ruin TH's plan to pin it on you? If TH were bad and got BTSC, they could just say you killed DDL and were lying about the BTSC. Me and dunya would have no way to disprove that, and we'd probably believe them.

There’s also this to consider: Turnip Head’s role claim is super powerful in late game, the kind of thing that can easily win the game for town in our current situation. The only way it makes sense for that role to survive last night is for there to be a roleblocker on the other side. I brought this up as a point to consider in TH’s favor earlier, but now I’m doing the opposite: if Turnip Head claims to have a result today, the lie becomes obvious: the mafia player had no way of stopping that role, and thus there’s no way they should have been left alive. TH has to claim no result.

I suppose this is fair - if you assume a baddie roleblocker, TH has to not claim. But again, if TH were going to lie to us today anyway, what's one more untruth? Why not say there is no baddie roleblocker? We could never verify that.

[Russtifinko]

Apologies for the long posts - I hope I'm not flooding the thread. I think this stream-of-conscious analysis is a good thing to have done tonight so I can sleep on it. I'm not ready to draw firm conclusions from it until I reread Speed and nutella, probably in the morning. But I am at least convinced to keep everyone in my POE, instead of excluding Sloon.

Just FYI on my schedule tomorrow, I work a 9-5 job in Eastern time. So I'll be on in the morning, briefly at lunchtime, and then about an hour before the lynch. I think I've set it up so I won't be too rushed to get caught up and finalize before the lynch, just don't want anyone panicking if I'm not around 2-3 hours before end of day.

[Russtifinko]

Re-reading Speed, this D4 exchange with dunya was notable for tone. Speed said 'bullshit' in it, despite cursing only one other time in the game (and that was in his second post in a rhyme). Weirdly aggressive for him. He eventually backed off after dunya roleclaimed and voted for me.

Re-reading these posts made me realize that if dunya were bad, claiming a vote manipulation power would be risky. It seems like JJJ didn't put doubles of any role powers in the game, at least not on the same faction. So if she had made up the claim and someone else had claimed it too, it would've narrowed the POE for today to 2. On the other hand, as Speed himself pointed out, baddies shouldn't have role manipulation powers. So if people believed the claim and no one counter-claimed it would essentially clear her.

@dunya I don't see a claim in your ISO. Wtf are you talking about.

why would i claim before i use my role, silly? i'll use it today tho. just gotta figure out who i suspect mostest and get input from my buds ddl and sloonei.

i should be like, isoing russ and th and you, but i really just dont feel like playing that way today atm so im not.

Then your reason for being all like 'Oh no the mafia might gonna kill me tonight, here are some final reads and directions' is complete bullshit.

please don't be too obvious in what i said was gonna happen, speedy. like, try to mask it a little bit even. you know, try to show us that you're actually reading other people too maybe. like you weighed it hard and decided im bad. it was a heavy decision on you, etc.

i always do final reads at night. not to be egoistical, but i'm often night killed cos i'm so good.

So this is a NO U, and then a different answer than I got last time. Okay.

I just got back to the thread and this was the first ping I picked up on. So I pursued it. I'm not trying to be theatrical or to look good, and I'm not done yet.

If I look at the dunya exchange from dunya-civ, I guess I'd say Speed was just trying to throw shade generally, and it didn't stick because of the role claim.

If I look at this from dunya-bad, it was a bit of distancing before Speed died, and it would mean Speed and dunya were essentially running a gambit to roleclear dunya together. Remember, Speed was the one who said vote manipulation = civ (although I know Sloon later agreed, as do I.) It would've been somewhat risky because of the possibility of counterclaim, but if I remember correctly, only TH and I had not claimed yet, and they may have figured one of us would lose a 1v1 showdown to dunya.

Even dunya clarifying her role with JJJ could have been made up, although I can explain that from a civ or baddie perspective. She said she initially forgot a pretty important part of her role (it not working today). I wonder if, when Sloon poked her about it, she realized she had to make up the second part. In hindsight, this claim was never going to be verified on D4 because Speed took all the votes. However, dunya could have realized that if she is civ and doesn't say her power is deactivated today, she would have to be NKed because a baddie can't allow double vote powers in MYLO. So if she is civ, she has to make that up to survive the night. If she was bad, she had to make it up because otherwise when she survived N5 everyone would've known she was lying. I think that if dunya is civ, we need to consider that her vote might still be worth 2. dunya, you weren't ever specific about what the conditions of your power being deactivated were - can you tell us?

Honestly, if you made up the deactivation thing, absolutely brilliant move whether you're civ or baddie.

he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged.

No one looking at her? I'm pretty certain she was in several scumread lists before Sloonei sat on her.

I'm going to look back at this - I suppose it's possible I've been giving Sloonei too much credit for getting nutella killed. I don't think DDL ever credited Sloon specifically, but Sloon has always seemed happy to take credit for it.

However, Speed shading Sloon in and of itself is a good look.

That's all I get from a Speed reread.

[Russtifinko]

The ranking from "I actually feel bad about this person" to "I wasn't allowed to vote neutral so I voted scum cuz I don't wanna have too little scum reads" was

TH > nutella > sloonei > nanook > TSP

I didn't mean to get into rereading DDL, but.....

This was DDL's suspect list on Night 1. He was on nutella way earlier than I had realized. Also MP listed nutella as scum in the N1 GTH. I haven't thought of a way to quickly search how everyone felt about her, but Sloonei at least was not the only one pushing her.

Not sure how obvious it was nutella was going to die. I think the movement mostly started late at night? A lot of people said they were okay with it pretty fast. But there were other wagons floating around. Sloonei himself was mainly going against Gman, some people were attacking nanook, etc.

Another thing: in general, DDL played it very cool about vigging nutella. He didn't even really celebrate it, much less come out and say he did it. Of course, G-Man outed him, but I get the sense he didn't even really want that to happen. So it's possible he was just trying to play coy in general and give anything away to the baddies at all. However, he does mention that his impression was that Sloon was on G-Man on N3, not nutella. It's possible I've been assuming DDL got the same thing from Sloon's posts that I did when really he didn't, and as I said, Sloon has been more than happy to take the credit where he can.

One other thing worth noting - rereading DDL, I didn't realize how hard he had been after TH. Essentially from D1, TH was his top suspect at almost all points (except apparently the night he vigged nutella, but again, he played that very close to the chest). Obviously DDL had no info on TH, and it starts early enough that I think it could be viewed as a potential case of tunneling. However, DDL's instincts were good this game overall.

I have to work now....I thought things would crystallize for me overnight, but I actually am finding reason to suspect all of you. Sloon taking too much credit for the vig is a worse look than I thought. But if Sloon actually is good, then TH pushing for him today would almost definitely mean TH is bad, because expanding the POE would be a baddie move. So there's this weird Sloon/TH dichotomy set up in my mind now where one of you is lying. However, dunya was my original suspect, and I still think she's looked suspicious even if no one seems to agree with me.

Hoping you guys write back and we can figure it out via discussion today...right now I feel like I'm posting into the void.

[dunya]

Sloon and dunya, what are your thoughts on going to LYLO, or the fact that TH suggested it? No one has really engaged TH on this.

i will not vote to go to lylo under any circumstances, only to have to fight against you and TH next phase. nothx. we have plenty of info and tbh, i want to enjoy my weekend of good weather doing outside stuff and not being anxious about defending myself against someone who's tunneled me all game and someone who will find it easier to agree i'm bad. i wasn't lying, i'm broken from mafia.

Yes I currently have btsc with him for some reason, and yes that would be a powerful mafia role, but it'd also be a powerful town role, so it's powerful either way. It's certainly not game-breaking like he insinuated.

but jay has made it clear he will be taking into consideration the post restrictions which is already mafia favored. i don't feel he'd then give them a watcher role plus sloonei's inventor role which has always been primarily town. putting it on the scum team is basically bastardizing it imo, and there's no room for bastardizing in this game i think.

I still think a lot about this post is weird. Thinking she would be NK'ed when there are power roles and confirmed civs, the certainty TH is bad.

i already explained that. but keep in mind i thought sloonei's role at that point was giving people extra jiggy posts (and i wonder who else thought the same)

its not really a different answer, i have a role and i've been mum about it. ddl is clearly a 1-shot vig, and from what i understood is that sloonei's role gives extra posts (if what MP got was from sloonei). g-man was predictable, i guess, but it if he was barking up the wrong tree (sloonei), i felt like i could have been the unknown threat to them. it makes sense in my head, sorry if i that seems weird, but it's authentic.

as for thinking TH is bad, you can blame my amazing intuition after the game, right after you apologize for tunneling me nonstop and deterring my town skillz.

I still disagree with the assertion that TH wasn't contributing, and it felt out of character for dunya.

again, i explained exactly what i meant by that. when i was eating my fingers over jack/speed, TH was watching and immediately issued me with the blame game before jack or speed even flipped. they didn't help guide me. they didn't tell me why one was better over the other. they applied pressure and suspicion immediately. go back and check that eod where turnip starts calling me jack's teammate and how i was trying to save them. i think it's clear to anyone i was struggling internally with who to vote for. i got angry at myself that jack was putting up a fight and i was defending speed when he didn't care to do it himself. i think jack could have won me over if he toned the arrogance down just a slight bit.

One could argue that as you saw the REO Speedwagon gaining steam, you were forced to back off of this and vote him after all.

i'm the one who started this steam you're talking about. i moved my two votes from jack to speed, with jack and DDL and then MP followed but couldn't announce as he was out of posts. i could have stuck on jack without budging my ass. why would i do that at all? and please don't set forth an argument telling me why, it was rhetoric. just try to actually read what i'm saying for 1 time and weighing it in your head before you apply a ton of tunneling to it. "does dunia make sense?"

dunya, when you posted this, did you think they were distancing? That seems to be the unspoken implication, and you were trying to associate me and TH earlier in the day. However, it also sort of seems like something you don't think TH is really capable of. Trying to understand if this was case-building or the beginning of a change of mind. It did look like you back off the me/TH teammates theory later in the day.

i never truly believed they could be that deep of distancing. that exchange and the post count confusion are the main reasons why i can't confidently scum read you. i'm trying, but it just doesn't sit right. and when something doesn't sit right, i don't keep sitting on it. i'm fluid and move around with my suspicions. like i said, my method is to find reasons to townread someone instead of seeing anything they say in a negative light. if you can townread someone, not once but twice in two different exchanges, chances are they're town. i can any post in this thread and apply a heavy does of skepticism to it and say it was scum talk; that doesn't help me much though.

I keep coming back to this weird certainty you had that TH would be lynched....I never regarded them as a top-tier (like top 2) lynch candidate until today.

remember this post game. ;p

I think DDL was killed instead of me because DDL was outed town (so can't be mislynched),

bingo. but if i was a baddie and someone had your role, i would kill you first.

The first part of this worked out pretty well, and I do think the Speed/dunya story still holds up.

why are you ok with someone in LyLo who doesn't suspect you at all? hasnt suspected you all game? how can that not trigger your paranoia?

I think this post is a good look. To me, the classic civ play when accused is to ignore it and keep hunting baddies, up until the point where you think you're gonna be mislynched or it will derail the game.

but TH hasn't ignored everyone who's suspected them. they didn't ignore mac, they didn't ignore me and they didn't ignore you. they ignored nutella and speed, their teammates.

[dunya]

However, dunya could have realized that if she is civ and doesn't say her power is deactivated today, she would have to be NKed because a baddie can't allow double vote powers in MYLO.

when i got my role i read it quick and went on to play. double vote is not rocket science. the host didn't use the words mylo or lylo in describing my restrictions and that's all i'll say about why i didn't remember that my double vote doesn't work in these cases. i'm not here to copy paste my role card for ya'll, sorry.

but honestly, double votes never work in mylo or lylo, at least definitely never lylo, so i shouldn't have presumed otherwise. that was a silly moment of dunya excitement.

[Turnip Head]

I'm sorry I wasn't more thoughtful in addressing you during the jack lynch, dunya. I was being paranoid and I'm ashamed that I didn't treat you better. I do think you're civ right now, but sometimes when the doubt is there, it can be difficult to be diplomatic because I don't want a baddie dunya to run us over.

I'm sorry you feel broken over this game. I've actually had a lot of fun personally and I feel like the format has been a breath of fresh air. I haven't needed to worry about reading thousands of posts but we have not lacked for thorough discussion either. and the post limits have never felt suffocating. Rackets are pretty cool imo and the game has felt casual but still competitive. But not everyone's the same and I'm sad that you're not having fun

And to Russti feeling like he's talking to the void, I want him to know I'm listening, and anticipating his content. I don't really have much more new to say unless I need to defend myself, but I really appreciate reading all of Russti:s thoughts and I am listening intently to what he has to say. He's being extremely thorough and smart and I wonder where he'll end up voting.

I still think Lylo is the right way to go from a strategic perspective, force this mafia to make one last kill and risk another clue to their identity.

[dunya]

i just love you TH. so so so much. <3

i *have* enjoyed the game, but this is the first time someone has ever tunneled me to the ground. at least the last couple days have been better, but i don't want to go to lylo without sloonei. and i know for a fact lylo will be without sloonei. i might be ok playing a game of mafia, but i don't know how to defend myself against lylo tunneling without getting anxious which clouds judgment. i friggin hate lylo when i'm town. plus, if you're town, there's no way you pick to lynch russ over me imo and no way russ picks to lynch you over me. so...that is the worst possible outcome for me.

but you telling me there's nothing at all in russ that you suspect just doesn't help me since i know i'm town for a fact and i'm 99.99% certain sloonei is.

[dunya]

that said, the whole exchange with TH can be taken out of why i townread russ anymore since they are not w/w and it was not distancing.

the main reason i am townreading russ has to do with the post count confusion. but that could be faked, i suppose.

[dunya]

and the main reason i am scum reading TH is their role claim and how speed and nutella both handled them (which isn't fair to them, maybe, i know).

they have seemed sincere and eager throughout the game otherwise, as is clear from my strong defenses of them up until the pool narrowed and i revised nutella and speed. i can't say i feel russ' posts have been as sincere, since i'm usually at the receiving end of his suspicions

so this is really hard. but it won't be easier if we take it to lylo, so i still don't want that.

[dunya]

i'm gonna see how i feel about this [VOTE: russ] aubergine when my vote is on him and i try to read his posts again as a speed/nutella teammate.