Space Invaders [END]

[dunya]

You, as town, have no way of knowing who the mafia shot.

if i bunker save someone and the mafia only have one kill in a double kill night, i will claim that pretty quickly. anything else is scummy. we'd go, 'hmmmm why did carot wait so long before claiming to have saved epi and explaining why there is only one alien kill?'

like, from a townie perspective, and probability likelihood in a player pool this small, carot assumes "yes, they tried to hit epi and i saved the shot"

[Alison]

Also, I'm telling you I saved Epignosis. Unless you have reasonable reasons to believe I'm making this up (talk to me if it's the case), you should believe it and 100% clear Epignosis for good and clear me too.

Actually I'm pretty sure this spews you scum

If your story holds water you would have no reason to believe that mafia shot Epi and you saved him. Mafia could have shot someone else (eg. proto, who was also universally townread - moreso than sabie I think actually), and found that person to be protected. And don't give me the "oh, but everyone else claimed that they holstered/protected nutella" thing, because many people haven't given a clear answer on what they did last night yet. TSP hasn't even posted since SoD - there is literally no way for town Carot to be certain that the shot went on Epi and she saved him.

I think you shot Sabie and intentionally put your second shot into nutella knowing it would get blocked, thus causing there to be only one kill. That way you could claim you protected Epi (an obvious kill for scum) the day after, therefore fake-clearing yourself in a situation where you're under a heavy amount of suspicion.

why doesnt carot kill between proto and epi rather than sabie, and claim to have saved the other?

no offence to sabie, but she was a low poster and not as impulsive as proto and epi.

One possible reason why could be that proto/epi had a much higher protection equity than sabie. When we talked about who was town, the two people we put at the top of the townlist were always proto and epi. I think nutella also locked them both town at one point. If I asked you who are the two players that are most likely to be protected other than nutella, you'd answer proto and epi. Remember, in this scenario Carot is throwing one shot into nutella (to blank it so she can pretend it went into Epi), and one shot into a dead townie of her choice. She's already making a play that makes her KP minus 1 - she really really really cannot afford to have both shots fizzle, so she has to kill a target that she is pretty sure won't be saved.

[Carotenoid]

Once again, I literally don't need to "fake clear" myself.
Also, it's just a bad mechanical strategy and I refuse to be tied with that.

Everyone present already implied they didn't save at this time. The only ones not present are the ones I believe to be the last aliens so no, I don't see the problem.

[dunya]

yeah, seriously, shooting into nutella and wasting a kill is not a strategy i credit carot to push to her teammate (who you assume is TSP). i think sabie and epi were shot and proto was spared because of my tinfoil.

[dunya]

(shower me with gratitude, proto)

[Alison]

because nutella has repeatedly expressed that she believes Mac to be town strongly for reasons pertaining to the Hally kill

i don't think that's even accurate. she said she doesn't think mac would do it, but it's not concrete.

your mind-twin assumed that if i'm shot and flip town, nutella would shoot mac next who she town reads now but would scum read if i am town. @protocultures, correct?

and then all I have to do is prove that I'm townier than either Tony or Carot and scum loses the game.

how does Alison do that?

By coming on and posting content, by effortposting or projecting town enough to nutella that she thinks Tony and Carot are a better shot. I don't have to clear myself or anything, just win an endgame against the two of them, which really isn't that farfetched of a possibility. If they felt nutella would shoot you and you would flip town, then the game would be heading for an endgame situation really quickly where town has to shoot correctly twice in a row or lose. In that situation, convincing the town that they're town cleared is a game-winning play.

[dunya]

what do you think of a macxtsp pairing, alison?

[Alison]

Once again, I literally don't need to "fake clear" myself.
Also, it's just a bad mechanical strategy and I refuse to be tied with that.

Everyone present already implied they didn't save at this time. The only ones not present are the ones I believe to be the last aliens so no, I don't see the problem.

I'm sorry but you're not wriggling out of this. You saw a chance to try to win the game on the spot by fake-clearing yourself as town and you took it. You can argue all you want about how you wouldn't have done it, how you don't need to do it, but the fact is that 1) the strategy is one which makes sense for scum to do and 2) it explains something that can't be explained if you're town.

[dunya]

2) it explains something that can't be explained if you're town.

i'm slow, what is unexplainable if carot is town?

[protocultures]

yeah, seriously, shooting into nutella and wasting a kill is not a strategy i credit carot to push to her teammate (who you assume is TSP). i think sabie and epi were shot and proto was spared because of my tinfoil.

I assume Im spared either for frame (hard) or my reads suck so bad, its amusing the aliens to watch me get it so wrong night after night.

[Carotenoid]

I'm not pursuing this discussion because it's not productive and we're just turning in circles.

[Alison]

2) it explains something that can't be explained if you're town.

i'm slow, what is unexplainable if carot is town?

How Carot "knew" the kill was Epi/Sabie and didn't even pause to consider other possibilities like proto/sabie. Compare this with proto: he brought up other kill possibilities immediately, which is what town does. Town doesn't know shit about what's going on during the night - they're an uninformed majority for a reason. They are naturally inclined to investigate every possibility and check every angle before jumping to conclusions. This is why when a night kill comes out that points to a pairing of A/B, you don't just immediately lock your votes on A/B and be done with it. You investigate the possibility that it's a frame, you investigate the possibility that it's A/C and A pressured C to make that kill, you investigate the possibility that the kill was made for a different reason, etc. It's literally textbook town: you don't know anything, so you have to look at all the different outcomes and systematically eliminate each one of them. Carot didn't do that. She immediately went into her narrative about what happened during the night, when town her would be more inclined to think carefully about the different ways a single kill could have happened.

[Carotenoid]

[dunya]

Compare this with proto: he brought up other kill possibilities immediately, which is what town does.

proto also didn't bunker save another townie last night, so his speculation is naturally going to be different from carotte's.

i feel like you're not genuinely weighing the significance of carot's claim here and are doing what you're advising townies not to do and that's jump to conclusions before checking every angle.

[Alison]

Compare this with proto: he brought up other kill possibilities immediately, which is what town does.

proto also didn't bunker save another townie last night, so his speculation is naturally going to be different from carotte's.

i feel like you're not genuinely weighing the significance of carot's claim here and are doing what you're advising townies not to do and that's jump to conclusions before checking every angle.

So tell me how town Carot here rules out proto/sabie? It can't be "I think every other bunker probably holstered" - we're nearing the end of the game, some of us have multiple saves left and will want to use those saves at some point. The fact that nobody else claimed a save can't mean that much when not everyone has claimed yet. Sure, you might go "I used a save - someone was saved. Occam's Razor, it was me". Assigning 70, 80% weight to epi/sabie is reasonable. But 100%, without even considering the possibility of proto/sabie for a single moment? Why the hell does Carot do that? And she immediately rushes to try to convince everyone to "treat her as cleared" town because of it.

Consider this, dunya: why was Sabie shot? You have said yourself that Sabie was a low poster and prima facie a less attractive target than either proto or Epi. So why did a shot go towards Sabie when scum could have easily fired on proto/Epi? You said above that maybe it was because you tinfoiled proto - but be reasonable. Scum doesn't sit there, look at your theory on proto, and go "wow, maybe nutella lasers proto after listening to dunya's words. We should leave proto alive!" The most likely reason that Sabie was shot was because she was not likely to be protected. And that fits well with the theory that scum made a play which would intentionally lower their KP, because then they have to make really sure their second shot hits. If scum did go for nutella + someone, that someone has a very high chance of being Sabie because it doesn't make sense to shoot outside of epi/proto/sabie and sabie is the least chance of being protected. That's not to say that the fact Sabie was shot proves that scum shot nutella + sabie, but it certainly fits with my theory and isn't the contraindicator that you seem to think it is.

[dunya]

your confidence is what makes it unbelievable.

you are refusing to believe in a world where carot does protect epi (who was even more townread than proto at the time) under any possibility whatsoever and that's reverse-tmi i guess? it doesn't feel like you suspicion is coming from a paranoid townie anymore, but a more aggressive alien who's running out of options and frustrated their kills aren't going through.

why are you so sure that mafia DIDN'T shoot one of epi/proto? it doesn't make sense to me at all that they'd shoot sabie and just say yeah, fuck it, i'm gonna shoot nutella and waste the second shot. they're not going to shoot between me, mac, or carot because we're in the deep end of the poe. and of course, you're not shooting each other. epi/porto makes perfect logical sense and the fact you can't come around to that just emphasizes that you are an alien.

[mention]nutella[/mention] shoot me today, shoot alison next phase please, and then it's between tsp and mac. i would shoot tsp before mac.

[Alison]

your confidence is what makes it unbelievable.

you are refusing to believe in a world where carot does protect epi (who was even more townread than proto at the time) under any possibility whatsoever and that's reverse-tmi i guess? it doesn't feel like you suspicion is coming from a paranoid townie anymore, but a more aggressive alien who's running out of options and frustrated their kills aren't going through.

why are you so sure that mafia DIDN'T shoot one of epi/proto? it doesn't make sense to me at all that they'd shoot sabie and just say yeah, fuck it, i'm gonna shoot nutella and waste the second shot. they're not going to shoot between me, mac, or carot because we're in the deep end of the poe. and of course, you're not shooting each other. epi/porto makes perfect logical sense and the fact you can't come around to that just emphasizes that you are an alien.

@nutella shoot me today, shoot alison next phase please, and then it's between tsp and mac. i would shoot tsp before mac.

I'm not refusing to believe in a world where Carot does protect Epi. I'm refusing to believe in a world where Carot protects Epi and then doesn't consider the possibility of mafia shooting proto/sabie. I think Carot scumslipped, and that scumslips points to a specific possibility (because if you believe that Carot is wolf here then the logical reason for the claim was that she set it up). Unlike Carot, I have actual reasoning backing my beliefs about how the game played out, which is why I'm so confident in them.

Carot scumslipped by "knowing" the shot was Epi/sabie -> Carot set herself up for a fake clear -> the shot was sabie/nutella.

You don't get to just go "it makes no sense that the aliens would waste their shot on nutella" when I've spent multiple posts explaining very clearly to you how it benefits them (it sets up a scenario where one of their number is seen as lock town in an endgame).

[dunya]

yeah, but in no world where i'm an alien would i ever waste a shot at end game when every kill matters, especially when that could be the last even number night with me and my partner alive allowing 2 kills. i can't believe anyone in this game would think that, either. if the play had come from me, maybe. or even mac. but carot isn't under fire and had no reason to defend me.

we could have been 2x4 right now, with nutella misfiring me and them killing someone at night, that's their win.

this is why i believe carot is telling the truth and you and tsp are likely aliens who just got unlucky.

[dunya]

oh wait i missed counting nutella in the numbers. it would have been 2x5 if their kill had gone through then nutella zaps me and they shoot 1 person.

starting elimlo at 2x3 is still a big advantage.

[Alison]

yeah, but in no world where i'm an alien would i ever waste a shot at end game when every kill matters, especially when that could be the last even number night with me and my partner alive allowing 2 kills. i can't believe anyone in this game would think that, either. if the play had come from me, maybe. or even mac. but carot isn't under fire and had no reason to defend me.

we could have been 2x4 right now, with nutella misfiring me and them killing someone at night, that's their win.

this is why i believe carot is telling the truth and you and tsp are likely aliens who just got unlucky.

You are not considering this situation from Carot's perspective. Just because Carot wasn't in line to be shot the very next day doesn't mean that she's not still under PoE clamp afterwards. Also "I would never waste a shot" is not an argument that holds water when I've spent a lot of time proving why the play literally wins the game on the spot if it works. If the downside is that you waste a shot and the upside is that you potentially win the game, why is that not a valid possibility?

You accuse me of ruling out possibilities and being too confident in what I'm saying, but you've been town-tunnelling Carot for virtually no reason since the last night phase and you're too proud to admit you're wrong about her.

Also what happened to the read on Mac? You were so sure he was scum, why do you think the alien team is me and TSP now?

[Alison]

oh wait i missed counting nutella in the numbers. it would have been 2x5 if their kill had gone through then nutella zaps me and they shoot 1 person.

starting elimlo at 2x3 is still a big advantage.

The kill there is actually super awkward for them. Let's say they had successfully shot Epi today along with Sabie. Then nutella lasers you, you flip town. This is what the game looks like:

SCUM:
Carot
TSP/Mac

TOWN:
Alison
TSP/Mac
Proto

Proto will protect nutella, obviously, and me and the good guy in TSP/Mac will protect proto. Who does the wolf team shoot here? Obviously they can't shoot each other, and shooting me or TSP is just helping us narrow the PoE (since nutella has a 2/3 chance rather than a 2/4 chance of shooting scum if they shoot one of us). Proto is protected by people who are town. Most likely they take a gamble on shooting proto or nutella and hoping someone fucked up the protects. Then we go into next day phase with the same people stated above with nobody dying. Proto is never getting lasered or shot, so it's essentially a double coinflip, with 2/4 of people in endgame being shot. And they can't even rely on a mis-shoot immediately winning the game, because they only have 1KP and there are two bunkers left to try to predict their kill, which would give town another chance to shoot correctly at 2/3 scum.

This endgame is not as favorable for Carot and TSP/Mac as you seem to think it is.

[Alison]

oh wait i missed counting nutella in the numbers. it would have been 2x5 if their kill had gone through then nutella zaps me and they shoot 1 person.

starting elimlo at 2x3 is still a big advantage.

The kill there is actually super awkward for them. Let's say they had successfully shot Epi today along with Sabie. Then nutella lasers you, you flip town. This is what the game looks like:

SCUM:
Carot
TSP/Mac

TOWN:
Alison
TSP/Mac
Proto

Proto will protect nutella, obviously, and me and the good guy in TSP/Mac will protect proto. Who does the wolf team shoot here? Obviously they can't shoot each other, and shooting me or TSP is just helping us narrow the PoE (since nutella has a 2/3 chance rather than a 2/4 chance of shooting scum if they shoot one of us). Proto is protected by people who are town. Most likely they take a gamble on shooting proto or nutella and hoping someone fucked up the protects. Then we go into next day phase with the same people stated above with nobody dying. Proto is never getting lasered or shot, so it's essentially a double coinflip, with 2/4 of people in endgame being shot. And they can't even rely on a mis-shoot immediately winning the game, because they only have 1KP and there are two bunkers left to try to predict their kill, which would give town another chance to shoot correctly at 2/3 scum.

This endgame is not as favorable for Carot and TSP/Mac as you seem to think it is.

Correction - in the event of a misshoot the next day, scum does almost certainly does win the game unless proto and the surviving townie snipe their night actions exactly which is very unlikely, because they have 2KP and not one. I misscounted even/odd nights. In that scenario there is still some probability of town winning (nutella would order the remaining townie and proto to protect her, aliens blast proto, then nutella has to shoot correctly twice in a row in a pool of 3 suspects and the innocent person has to correctly predict the alien's night kill in a pool of two possibilities), alathough I concede it is low.

But all that only comes into play if nutella misshoots in endgame. If nutella shoots correctly, then the aliens are in trouble, and it's a 50% for her to shoot correctly (more, if you think she has good reads and is a good gamesolver). I don't think that is an attractive an endgame scenario as you seem to believe.

[dunya]

[mention]protocultures[/mention] what do you make of all of this?

[dunya]

it reads to me like alison has incentive to only kill one player last night

hmm, let me mull over things alison and get back to you. i want to weigh your scenario with the scenario i most think is likely and see what happens.

[protocultures]

I'd rather TSP confirm their night action before working through it all. Agree with Alison that carotenoids save isn't mechanically clearing. Probably disagree a bit on the implications.

Like carotenoids slip doesn't mean they are mafia. They can slip as town too. Like it's not really a slip it just doesn't consider every scenario. I can't say town carotenoid never does this and only mafia carotenoid does this.

I think it's would be weird if mafia carotenoid did this to try and clear themself since it's NOT clearing. It's like you have assume they tried to derp clear themselves as mafia. Plus we should wait for tony to reply before going ham on eachother. Not saying you are but save some energy, you know?

I'm probably frustrating Alison a lot now since she has made case after case and I have defended carotenoid all game. Sorry.

I don't see anything to think Alison's case is not honest and I continue to townread Alison. Scum Alison could theoretically make these arguments but probably doesn't go to the extreme of predicting timelines. Not sure on that though. On balance I find it towny from Alison.

[Epignosis]

proto is town read, but less widely than Epignosis and tutuu/sabie were.
I 100% believe that Epignosis was always the night kill.
TonyStarkPrime is the only one that didn't claim, but it doesn't change much at this point.

At the time you made the claim of protecting Epi, nobody had claimed yet. You, as town, have no way of knowing who the mafia shot. There is no such thing as a 100% confimed mafia kill when there are a bunch of doctors running around, many with several protects left. Any wolf here would be dumb not to consider the possibility that Epi would be protected and go for a kill like proto + sabie - both of whom have lower protect equity than Epi while still being townread by most people. They also aren't realistically going to get shot by nutella in the near future, so they're good kills for the aliens to make. You didn't consider any possible kill other than Epi/sabie, because you walked into this day phase knowing for a fact you were going to push that as the kill made last night in order to fake clear yourself.

Also, I'm telling you I saved Epignosis. Unless you have reasonable reasons to believe I'm making this up (talk to me if it's the case), you should believe it and 100% clear Epignosis for good and clear me too.

Actually I'm pretty sure this spews you scum

If your story holds water you would have no reason to believe that mafia shot Epi and you saved him. Mafia could have shot someone else (eg. proto, who was also universally townread - moreso than sabie I think actually), and found that person to be protected. And don't give me the "oh, but everyone else claimed that they holstered/protected nutella" thing, because many people haven't given a clear answer on what they did last night yet. TSP hasn't even posted since SoD - there is literally no way for town Carot to be certain that the shot went on Epi and she saved him.

I think you shot Sabie and intentionally put your second shot into nutella knowing it would get blocked, thus causing there to be only one kill. That way you could claim you protected Epi (an obvious kill for scum) the day after, therefore fake-clearing yourself in a situation where you're under a heavy amount of suspicion.

why doesnt carot kill between proto and epi rather than sabie, and claim to have saved the other?

no offence to sabie, but she was a low poster and not as impulsive as proto and epi.

One possible reason why could be that proto/epi had a much higher protection equity than sabie. When we talked about who was town, the two people we put at the top of the townlist were always proto and epi. I think nutella also locked them both town at one point. If I asked you who are the two players that are most likely to be protected other than nutella, you'd answer proto and epi. Remember, in this scenario Carot is throwing one shot into nutella (to blank it so she can pretend it went into Epi), and one shot into a dead townie of her choice. She's already making a play that makes her KP minus 1 - she really really really cannot afford to have both shots fizzle, so she has to kill a target that she is pretty sure won't be saved.

I am struggling to believe that these two highlighted items are genuine thoughts that exist within your mind simultaneously.

You suggest that the aliens would be dumb to shoot me due to a higher likelihood of being protected...and yet you're also suggesting that Carotenoid deliberately shot someone who absolutely would be protected in order to pretend I got capped?

Do I have that right?

2) it explains something that can't be explained if you're town.

i'm slow, what is unexplainable if carot is town?

How Carot "knew" the kill was Epi/Sabie and didn't even pause to consider other possibilities like proto/sabie. Compare this with proto: he brought up other kill possibilities immediately, which is what town does. Town doesn't know shit about what's going on during the night - they're an uninformed majority for a reason. They are naturally inclined to investigate every possibility and check every angle before jumping to conclusions. This is why when a night kill comes out that points to a pairing of A/B, you don't just immediately lock your votes on A/B and be done with it. You investigate the possibility that it's a frame, you investigate the possibility that it's A/C and A pressured C to make that kill, you investigate the possibility that the kill was made for a different reason, etc. It's literally textbook town: you don't know anything, so you have to look at all the different outcomes and systematically eliminate each one of them. Carot didn't do that. She immediately went into her narrative about what happened during the night, when town her would be more inclined to think carefully about the different ways a single kill could have happened.

Do you believe the aliens have shot at nutella previously given that we are announcing our intentions in the thread to protect her?

And if the aliens have never shot at nutella, then why would they start now?

[protocultures]

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] would help to know your night action if any for night 4

[Epignosis]

It's hotter than a mug outside.

Time to make a refreshment and hit the pool.

[protocultures]

I don't get what's happening.

One of the first thing that happened post-Hally flip is dunya and Epignosis being cleared for never killing Hally n1. I thought it was consensus, I do not understand why dunya is being suspected for exactly this reason? It seems silly and I don't get it.

I always believe these kind of claims because if you lie, you're basically setting yourself to never be trusted ever again in a game and I don't think anyone would have fun playing in these conditions. Maybe I'm just being naive but I believe dunya, Epignosis & MacDougall when they say they wouldn't have killed Hally.

I really think it's just Alison-TonyStarkPrime.

You know the funny thing is this could all be correct and aliens are within carotenoid, Alison and tony.

However I can't buy into town Dunya swearing Mac is mafia and town Mac swearing Dunya is mafia when they are both town with 10 years of meta. I'm like putting weight to reads that aren't mine but there we go.

[sabie12]

i used my third bunker save on sabie, because i didn't want her to be night killed when she'd just replaced in like hally.

i was -this- close to using it on her again n4, but i thought i'd leave it for nutella. lol. sorry @sabie12 you're awesome, the aliens are just terrified of you. please play with us soon.

psh I know I'm awesome so are you!

[dunya]

I don't get what's happening.

One of the first thing that happened post-Hally flip is dunya and Epignosis being cleared for never killing Hally n1. I thought it was consensus, I do not understand why dunya is being suspected for exactly this reason? It seems silly and I don't get it.

I always believe these kind of claims because if you lie, you're basically setting yourself to never be trusted ever again in a game and I don't think anyone would have fun playing in these conditions. Maybe I'm just being naive but I believe dunya, Epignosis & MacDougall when they say they wouldn't have killed Hally.

I really think it's just Alison-TonyStarkPrime.

You know the funny thing is this could all be correct and aliens are within carotenoid, Alison and tony.

However I can't buy into town Dunya swearing Mac is mafia and town Mac swearing Dunya is mafia when they are both town with 10 years of meta. I'm like putting weight to reads that aren't mine but there we go.

fwiw, this version of mac is a new one and not one i've played with a lot. he's changed, probably to adapt to playing 10 games at once.

i retract the strength of my alien read on mac a little but he is still in my poe in case it isn't tony. but i think at this point all fingers point to alison/tsp for me.

[protocultures]

My PoE is:

why is mac lock-clear town for you?

not arguing or trying to emotionally manipulate anyone !!! just a serious question since i think you're town and you communicate better than proto does on my wavelength.

For the whole getting emotional thing of yesterday.
Also, I think he's right when he says Rej TMI'd him

Also I do not believe you're trying to emotionally manipulate us!

hmmm i have to check that rej tmi thing again. it wouldn't be the first time i've suspected town mac, but i seriously think his reasons for scumreading me are a fabricated load of BS to put it politely lol

also, i appreciate that! ce fut un plaisir de jouer avec toi, carotte. bonne chance ! ^_^

If you wanna check I'm thinking about here. This would also be super weird alien/alien interaction.

Don't you dare think you're being misfired today!

I mean the troll team is Soneji Rej Mac and Carotenoid. We have had the answer in front of us from day 0. It's just like a Saw movie. forgot which one.

[protocultures]

If I'm an alien I don't need this, I'm not under a "heavy amount of suspicion".

I think I disagree on this point. I'm probably townreading you the most out of everyone and you are number 3 or 4 in a list of 6.

[protocultures]

1) I'm in her PoE since the very beginning, and yet I'm still alive ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ nutella jumped on dunya at SoD, not me So nah, I don't feel in danger.

2) That's just because there's no other realistic explanation, so I feel very comforting assuming my save worked.

Re the second point do you STILL hold that belief?

[protocultures]

i believe carot wholeheartedly. there is not carot/tony partnership that makes carot feel the necessity to town clear herself or me. the fact is, she didn't have to do anything and nutella would shoot me, i flip town, then mac, mac flips town.

alison is an alien.

Does caroenoid think Dunya dies always if they don't make a play. Hmmmm. I mean I think Nutella gave her read re Dunya before the claim from Carotenoid so maybe?

I don't really see why Dunya thinks Alison is an alien for their case on Carotenoid unless it is built from other previous reads. Alison's case is entirely accurate and reasonable.

[protocultures]

I'm never w/w with TonyStarkPrime lol

Was there any clearing interaction? I don't recall one.

[Alison]

I am struggling to believe that these two highlighted items are genuine thoughts that exist within your mind simultaneously.

You suggest that the aliens would be dumb to shoot me due to a higher likelihood of being protected...and yet you're also suggesting that Carotenoid deliberately shot someone who absolutely would be protected in order to pretend I got capped?

Do I have that right?
...

Do you believe the aliens have shot at nutella previously given that we are announcing our intentions in the thread to protect her?

And if the aliens have never shot at nutella, then why would they start now?

1) I'm suggesting that, prima facie, any wolf team here would take into account the likelihood of their targets being protected when selecting their shots. This is why I think town Carotenoid would have considered it and therefore not immediately jumped to conclusions. But I think that in this game the wolf team here did in fact try to make a play to fake clear one of their members, in which case the whole point is for the shot to fail. So yes, I think wolf teams in general would think about the likelihood about their shot failing and not just immediately lock in Epi/proto (which we know for a fact they didn't) - but under my theory, there is a specific reason for the wolf team to be okay with their shot failing - namely, that it opens up the fake protection claim for them.

2) They would start now because there is a specific reason for them to do so. Shooting nutella before today gains them nothing except whiffing a kill. Shooting nutella on Night 4 specifically gives them a powerful claim to try to win the endgame with.

[protocultures]

because nutella has repeatedly expressed that she believes Mac to be town strongly for reasons pertaining to the Hally kill

i don't think that's even accurate. she said she doesn't think mac would do it, but it's not concrete.

your mind-twin assumed that if i'm shot and flip town, nutella would shoot mac next who she town reads now but would scum read if i am town. @protocultures, correct?

and then all I have to do is prove that I'm townier than either Tony or Carot and scum loses the game.

how does Alison do that?

Not sure what you are asking me. Like I didn't understand your sacrifice plan for info because I couldn't work out what you thought the info would be on you flipping town.i asked you a few times and kind of didnt specify.

[Alison]

I don't get what's happening.

One of the first thing that happened post-Hally flip is dunya and Epignosis being cleared for never killing Hally n1. I thought it was consensus, I do not understand why dunya is being suspected for exactly this reason? It seems silly and I don't get it.

I always believe these kind of claims because if you lie, you're basically setting yourself to never be trusted ever again in a game and I don't think anyone would have fun playing in these conditions. Maybe I'm just being naive but I believe dunya, Epignosis & MacDougall when they say they wouldn't have killed Hally.

I really think it's just Alison-TonyStarkPrime.

You know the funny thing is this could all be correct and aliens are within carotenoid, Alison and tony.

However I can't buy into town Dunya swearing Mac is mafia and town Mac swearing Dunya is mafia when they are both town with 10 years of meta. I'm like putting weight to reads that aren't mine but there we go.

fwiw, this version of mac is a new one and not one i've played with a lot. he's changed, probably to adapt to playing 10 games at once.

i retract the strength of my alien read on mac a little but he is still in my poe in case it isn't tony. but i think at this point all fingers point to alison/tsp for me.

There is absolutely 0 reason to take Caro out from your PoE. You are being pocketed like crazy and will be humiliated postgame for locking a townread on scum who slipped in front of your face.

[dunya]

There is absolutely 0 reason to take Caro out from your PoE. You are being pocketed like crazy and will be humiliated postgame for locking a townread on scum who slipped in front of your face.

wow lol that's some aggressive wording. fwiw, i'm never humiliated in mafia; if i'm fooled, i tip my hat to them.

also you're kinda tming about me.

[protocultures]

because nutella has repeatedly expressed that she believes Mac to be town strongly for reasons pertaining to the Hally kill

i don't think that's even accurate. she said she doesn't think mac would do it, but it's not concrete.

your mind-twin assumed that if i'm shot and flip town, nutella would shoot mac next who she town reads now but would scum read if i am town. @protocultures, correct?

and then all I have to do is prove that I'm townier than either Tony or Carot and scum loses the game.

how does Alison do that?

Not sure what you are asking me. Like I didn't understand your sacrifice plan for info because I couldn't work out what you thought the info would be on you flipping town.i asked you a few times and kind of didnt specify.

So from my perspective we should blast into either Mac or Dunya. If one of alien, can consider leaving the other alive. Consider it and look elsewhere. If one is town, I'm all for blasting the other one. I don't think Nutella likes that idea though and you guys are talking about your reads on what Nutella might do.

Like if Dunya alien, blast TSP. If Dunya town blast Mac.
If Mac town, blast Dunya. If Mac alien, prob don't blast TSP. Prob have to look at Dunya/Caro/Alison.

Something like that is my personal flowchart

[dunya]

Not sure what you are asking me. Like I didn't understand your sacrifice plan for info because I couldn't work out what you thought the info would be on you flipping town.i asked you a few times and kind of didnt specify.

i did tell you. it means nutella stops tunneling me and actually focuses on who's bad. she's a great town player, and i have faith if i remove the "dunya obstacle" from her face, she'll see it's alison and tony.

linki: wow. we work on different wavelengths fr.

[protocultures]

There is absolutely 0 reason to take Caro out from your PoE. You are being pocketed like crazy and will be humiliated postgame for locking a townread on scum who slipped in front of your face.

wow lol that's some aggressive wording. fwiw, i'm never humiliated in mafia; if i'm fooled, i tip my hat to them.

also you're kinda tming about me.

So this is actually an interesting post. Alison is either super frustrated or making an emotionally manipulative post to Dunya re their reads. I don't see Alison as the emotionally manipulative type. Could be very wrong. Seems weird either way a bit.

How is Alison's confidence level so high on Carotenoid being scum? I mean if they are right and been telling us for 3 days straight I can kind of see their frustration.

[protocultures]

Not sure what you are asking me. Like I didn't understand your sacrifice plan for info because I couldn't work out what you thought the info would be on you flipping town.i asked you a few times and kind of didnt specify.

i did tell you. it means nutella stops tunneling me and actually focuses on who's bad. she's a great town player, and i have faith if i remove the "dunya obstacle" from her face, she'll see it's alison and tony.

linki: wow. we work on different wavelengths fr.

Yeah this is the same as last time. I don't understand your flowchart. Why can't it be Mac if you are town. I couldn't understand the info to be gained. You kinda jumped a few steps and said Nutella would figure out that the team is xyz.

[dunya]

If Mac alien, prob don't blast TSP. Prob have to look at Dunya/Caro/Alison.

you're saying if mac alien i'm more likely to be his partner than TSP???? that made me laugh haha

if alison hasn't TMId all this phase, i'd be tinfoiling harder. i'll have to pick your brain post-game to see why we don't see eye to eye at all.

[dunya]

You kinda jumped a few steps and said Nutella would figure out that the team is xyz.

well, nutella has been voted best townie on this website last year. she knows how to find scum and i have faith in that

when i flip town, i'm no longer an obstacle in her gameplay. i've cased and practically begged her to shoot alison first then TSP/Mac, in that order based on last night's mac performance. i feel ok with my level of contribution in this game. more than ok actually.

[Alison]

There is absolutely 0 reason to take Caro out from your PoE. You are being pocketed like crazy and will be humiliated postgame for locking a townread on scum who slipped in front of your face.

wow lol that's some aggressive wording. fwiw, i'm never humiliated in mafia; if i'm fooled, i tip my hat to them.

also you're kinda tming about me.

I'm not TMIng about you - you + Caro make no sense as a team, so you're effectively town clear (just incredibly wrong town clear) in my eyes. Same with proto + Caro.

[nutella]

Also, I'm telling you I saved Epignosis. Unless you have reasonable reasons to believe I'm making this up (talk to me if it's the case), you should believe it and 100% clear Epignosis for good and clear me too.

Actually I'm pretty sure this spews you scum

If your story holds water you would have no reason to believe that mafia shot Epi and you saved him. Mafia could have shot someone else (eg. proto, who was also universally townread - moreso than sabie I think actually), and found that person to be protected. And don't give me the "oh, but everyone else claimed that they holstered/protected nutella" thing, because many people haven't given a clear answer on what they did last night yet. TSP hasn't even posted since SoD - there is literally no way for town Carot to be certain that the shot went on Epi and she saved him.

I think you shot Sabie and intentionally put your second shot into nutella knowing it would get blocked, thus causing there to be only one kill. That way you could claim you protected Epi (an obvious kill for scum) the day after, therefore fake-clearing yourself in a situation where you're under a heavy amount of suspicion.

I had the same reaction to carot's claim.

[nutella]

so proto is spewed clear from the interaction with Carot, not that that's surprising, and I also think dunya looks clear from this. It's hard to believe that a dunya/Carot wolf team just decided to have a townread and hug each other in thread when nutella has stated intent to shoot dunya. It looks more to me like Carot is just townreading dunya because she knows dunya will flip town and wants to look good after dunya gets shot. That leaves TSP and Mac in the PoE as Carot's partner.

hmmmmmm

[nutella]

I told myself I wouldn't reconsider but


spoiler alert



I'm reconsidering