The Lion King [MAFIA WIN]

[Alison]

I think MP7 and Dizzy are scum

Are town, rather.

[Tangrowth]

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

This is probably true, and it almost certainly means Michelle is wolf here from a gamestate perspective, right?

[Tangrowth]

Let's operate on the assumption that Michelle is scum.

If my point about 1612's emotion during EoD is true, that would indicate that he is not her mafia buddy.

I think MP7 and Dizzy are scum, and the game is narrow enough that I don't have the space to pursue tinfoil reads. So I will simply have to bet the game on the fact that they are town. Therefore, the POE pool is reduced to [speedraldo, cobblertenoid, Urist].

Of these, I am most confident in speedraldo being scum. Their vote on 1612 looks fishy if we walk into it with the idea that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum - it could be a chainsaw defense there. Furthermore, leaving a vote on 1612 near EOD and disappearing from the thread after being explicitly told to consolidate is very bad. It looks like speedraldo didn't want to vote his scum buddy (at the time Michelle was a very possible execute) but also didn't want to get caught on the Lavender wagon.

That leaves cobblertenoid or Urist as the last possible member of the scum team.

I'm willing to ride or die with Dizzy at this point myself. If it gets to F3 or something, different story, but otherwise, nah. And if 1612 is also town, I find the rest of your speculation here agreeable.

[Tangrowth]

Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

[Tangrowth]

Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

But even still, as long as we're right about the first two, then that still gets us to F3. The game isn't over.

[Alison]

Sigh. I'll be back later too. We still can win this, but also I need more emotional energy.

I don't. Take your time and come back with a clear head, and I'll do my best to contribute as much as possible before I die. I don't really regret the execute - if it turns out I was hopelessly off-base postgame, then I will, but as things stand, it did sort a bunch of people for me (1612/Michelle/speedraldo) and that was one of the goals I meant to accomplish with Lavender's execute, as I indicated earlier. It's unfortunate he isn't scum, but unfortunate things are a part of life. It is better to think about how to most optimally play situation you're in right now and maximize winrate from here than dwell on what could have been.

[Tangrowth]

Sigh. I'll be back later too. We still can win this, but also I need more emotional energy.

I don't. Take your time and come back with a clear head, and I'll do my best to contribute as much as possible before I die. I don't really regret the execute - if it turns out I was hopelessly off-base postgame, then I will, but as things stand, it did sort a bunch of people for me (1612/Michelle/speedraldo) and that was one of the goals I meant to accomplish with Lavender's execute, as I indicated earlier. It's unfortunate he isn't scum, but unfortunate things are a part of life. It is better to think about how to most optimally play situation you're in right now and maximize winrate from here than dwell on what could have been.

I'm still here solving anyway because I can't help it, but yeah, I'll seriously take some time away because it'll help me I think. I find what you've been saying so far agreeable, and I appreciate your work.

[Tangrowth]

Regardless, [mention]Michelle[/mention] certainly needs to answer for her complacency. I need to be satisfied.

[Alison]

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

This is probably true, and it almost certainly means Michelle is wolf here from a gamestate perspective, right?

I think Michelle is probably wolf given this flip, and frankly, I don't have the space to explore worlds where she isn't. Without a cop, the only ways we can really confirm alignment are if someone spews an alignment really obviously (like proto did EOD1) or by executing someone. Since we cannot afford to get a single misexecute for the rest of the game, I think my best chance of winning is to press forward with the idea that she is scum and play to my outs. Yes, if she is town we lose instantly, but we don't have any other option than to take a risk - safe play isn't going to cut it here, since we need to be right three times in a row.

[Urist]

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

1612 was tied with Lavender. The only reason he'd have to be relaxed is if his scum buddies were *not* on Lavender.

[Tangrowth]

MP7 N3 post-flip vibes reads

Confirmed town
Alison

Pseudo-confirmed town
Urist

Strong town
Dyslexicon

Upper POE
1612
cobbler

Lower POE
jeraldo/speed
Michelle

I need to sort out which of the bottom four is town, potentially more if Urist and/or Dizzy are actually wolfing, but that's for when I have a clearer head. I'll be back whenever. Godspeed to everyone in the interim. We still can win this, I believe in us!

[Alison]

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

1612 was tied with Lavender. The only reason he'd have to be relaxed is if his scum buddies were *not* on Lavender.

Fair point, but 1612 was freaking out even when it looked like it was going to be Lavender or Michelle. This means that in a world where 1612 is somehow scum, their scum buddy would have to be Michelle. And if Michelle is scum here, speedraldo is also scum for the stated reasoning - so it is still correct to go Michelle -> speedraldo. The emotion felt real to me though - I do think 1612 was town who just had a really strong meta read on someone they knew. It didn't feel like a white knight.

[Tangrowth]

Even in the worst case scenario where the team is Dizzy/Urist/X, there's still an X. As long as we can hit the X tomorrow, we got this. One step at a time. Anyway, I'll be back. Probably should sleep on it.

[Alison]

Given that the mafia can quickhammer if someone votes wrong, I will ask that instead of voting in the poll, someone take up the role of recording votes, and at the EOD, everyone agrees to vote that person.

[Urist]

I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

[Alison]

I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

Why aren't you going to post tonight? It's not like you're waiting on the info borne from the NK - we know it's going to be me. If you're town, I suggest you help solve the game and persuade people as to why your scumreads are correct, rather than intentionally refusing to contribute.

[Urist]

I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

Why aren't you going to post tonight? It's not like you're waiting on the info borne from the NK - we know it's going to be me. If you're town, I suggest you help solve the game and persuade people as to why your scumreads are correct, rather than intentionally refusing to contribute.

I meant this rl night. I guess it's not night for you so makes sense you would think game night, anyway...
To be honest I am totally demoralized and I need some time to ruminate on this and recoup my spirits a little. I think the chances of us winning are very slim at this point. I think that Lavender wasn't a great banishment and I feel like I have very little to go on from a town flip there. I'm not confident at all in any of my reads. It's very difficult at the moment for me to do anything with the Lav flip because he wasn't really in my top 3. I'm not even confident that 1612 is mafia, but I felt that if we'd flipped him I would have a solid read on mp7. I didn't want to banish Nanook d1 either so I feel a very real lack of control rn. There are a dozen little things.

Whatever, I'll be back before d4 starts. This is me right now:

[Urist]

Here's the vanity wagons from before we consolidated on Lav/1612. Not sure how helpful you'll find it with no scum flips but there ya go.

[Alison]

I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

[Urist]

I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

If your theory is making the assumptions that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum, the theory is useless because you've already solved the game with the assumptions. :P

[Alison]

I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

If your theory is making the assumptions that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum, the theory is useless because you've already solved the game with the assumptions. :P

No, even if the assumptions are true, I still have to solve the rest of the scum team. Also, the only assumption required to get to "speedraldo is scum" is "Michelle is scum".

[Urist]

I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

If your theory is making the assumptions that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum, the theory is useless because you've already solved the game with the assumptions. :P

No, even if the assumptions are true, I still have to solve the rest of the scum team. Also, the only assumption required to get to "speedraldo is scum" is "Michelle is scum".

And if 1612 is scum as well?

[Alison]

And if 1612 is scum as well?

Then it doesn't change anything. At the time they sat their vote on 1612, it did not look like 1612 had a strong chance of being executed. They didn't post anything after that, so they probably were away and didn't see the wagon forming on 1612. They could easily have parked a vote on 1612 - regardless of his alignment - to dodge having to choose between Lavender and Michelle, confident that it won't go anywhere.

[Carotenoid]

Hi there! I'm going to start catching up. If there's a specific set of interactions/players you want me to pay attention to, please @ me!

tbh I'm a bit scared of messing up lylo but I'm ready for the challenge

[Michelle]

Regardless, @Michelle certainly needs to answer for her complacency. I need to be satisfied.

i am not complacent, it was weekend and I was busy.
I am sorry i was wrong about Lavander, i see suspecting for power wolves is not always the answer.

[Michelle]

MP7 N3 post-flip vibes reads

Confirmed town
Alison

Pseudo-confirmed town
Urist

Strong town
Dyslexicon

Upper POE
1612
cobbler

Lower POE
jeraldo/speed
Michelle

I need to sort out which of the bottom four is town, potentially more if Urist and/or Dizzy are actually wolfing, but that's for when I have a clearer head. I'll be back whenever. Godspeed to everyone in the interim. We still can win this, I believe in us!

I know Ted was busy being in a trip, though his lack of inputs is nagl.
Lynching me looses the game 100% btw

[Tangrowth]

Regardless, @Michelle certainly needs to answer for her complacency. I need to be satisfied.

i am not complacent, it was weekend and I was busy.
I am sorry i was wrong about Lavander, i see suspecting for power wolves is not always the answer.

I understand, but it's not so much the amount of your posts but the feel I got? No matter, we can talk more later. I'd be interested to hear your updated reads.

[Tangrowth]

Urist, I understand feeling demoralized completely, but... we can still at least give it the best shot we can and go from there. One day phase at a time!

[Michelle]

Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

can you stop pushing for me just because i don't have so much time? You really don't evaluate at all my activity isn't it?

I have to work today, i will read as much as i can and post my ideas

You have a wide pool of suspects, who is your lock except Alison?

[Michelle]

MP7 N3 post-flip vibes reads

Confirmed town
Alison

Pseudo-confirmed town
Urist

Strong town
Dyslexicon

Upper POE
1612
cobbler

Lower POE
jeraldo/speed
Michelle

I need to sort out which of the bottom four is town, potentially more if Urist and/or Dizzy are actually wolfing, but that's for when I have a clearer head. I'll be back whenever. Godspeed to everyone in the interim. We still can win this, I believe in us!

I know Ted was busy being in a trip, though his lack of inputs is nagl.
Lynching me looses the game 100% btw

it's interesting i didn't receive an answer at this

[Tangrowth]

What answer do you want, there's no question?

I'm not pushing you for not being here?

[Michelle]

What answer do you want, there's no question?

I'm not pushing you for not being here?

an oppinion on Ted would be nice.

Why are you pushing me then?

[Michelle]

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

This is probably true, and it almost certainly means Michelle is wolf here from a gamestate perspective, right?

I wish to understand your gamestate perspective to see why are you wrong about me.

[speedchuck]

I never got an answer as to why we were lynching Lav. Even after my ISO I found nothing amiss.

Feels like deepwolf.

[speedchuck]

Literally MYLO tomorrow. Anyone who encourages complacency about the gamestate should be investigated.

[Dyslexicon]

Hi, Speed. What are your feelings about the game? What is it like to replace in and now we're in MYLO? Pretty cool?

Would still like for you to look into Michelle or basically anyone you feel it's worth looking into.

[speedchuck]

Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

This is garbo.

Picking up two of the easier targets left in the game and saying 'Yep, game is all but solved' when there isn't a single scumlynch to analyse for partner interactions is insane.

And yes, I know what I quoted there is not what you said. You can argue semantics. But this is a lazy pass at claiming a gamestate that isn't true. A gamestate that will cause complacency and guarantee that town loses.

[speedchuck]

Hi, Speed. What are your feelings about the game? What is it like to replace in and now we're in MYLO? Pretty cool?

lol it's not very cool tbf

Would still like for you to look into Michelle or basically anyone you feel it's worth looking into.

I'll definitely look into Michelle.

[speedchuck]

If I'm going to play this game I will need some TL;DR summaries.

Like, for example, why did we lynch Lav? This is not a posture question. I want to know so I can evaluate people.

[speedchuck]

the lion king, according to lavender

i think that mp7 and michelle are outed mafia, and mp7 is gf. i think the third mafia is most likely cobbler-ted (hi, @tedxtr!). if it's not cobbler-ted, it's jeraldoo. if it's not jeraldoo, it's 1612. how i arrived at this conclusion should be clear from my last few posts. long story short, i think urist hit the nail on the head that scirrus being the n1 kill reeks of mafia being comfy n1. if they weren't comfy, they would try to kill cop instead. mp7/michelle/cobbler is easily the comfiest scumteam of the three possibilities in my book (mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted, mp7/michelle/jeraldoo, mp7/michelle/1612)

i think mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted headed into n1 confident that none of them would be or had been cop checked. my impression was that mp7 was universally townread (on her meta, i guess? i don't really understand it at all). michelle was townread by alison (and tutuu?) after alison seemed satisfied by michelle's defense in response to alison's push. cobbler-ted also seemed to be universally townread for a town/gamesolvey mindset in his early posts

frankly i think these three go into n1 with a gameplan of pocketing alison and tutuu all game. they reason that tutuu is cop (based on softing alison as the n0 check?) and will probably check urist to resolve the confusion surrounding the nanook-lc/urist split on eod1. they reason that they can either push a misbanish on urist as gf OR take credit for townreading urist early, depending on how alison/tutuu are leaning about the whole situation

this is consistent with my reads on pretty much every other player as well, as well as other associations i've picked up on:

1) i went into n1 most suspicious of urist, proto, and tutuu. i poked at urist and found his reaction to be extremely town. i questioned tutuu and found her response to be extremely town

2) tutuu's brilliant cop reveal d2 which asked all the players for their reads sent mp7 and cobbler running for the hills. i remember me and dys being active posters after that reveal. i remember michelle and mp7 promising reads later. my impression of the claim was that tutuu had a red check. i noticed that tutuu had been asking urist for a scumcase on mp7 the previous night. i reasoned that mp7 was the red check and indicated this in the post containing my reads. this claim was universally ignored, which is extremely consistent with mp7 being gf: she and her mafia pals would know that her actually being the red check is impossible, so how can any of them respond to my claim without implicating themselves? i guess their best play is hard bussing mp7. indeed, the brilliancy of tutuu's play, to me, is that she essentially forced mafia to bus mp7. the simple explanation for their silence, to me, is that they missed the boat on that opportunity

3) on the other hand, dys' excited reaction to the cop claim and reads are super town to me at this point (townreading urist, skepticism of mp7)

4) i don't think i can prove this, but i wonder if anyone else can recall who was on the brief alison wagon d1. i think it was me/proto/urist, and one other person at one point. my candidate scumteam not being on this vote is consistent with their plan to pocket alison. according to 1612 in his most recent post, michelle was on the alison wagon but then jumped off of it. this could be nervousness about sticking to the script of pocketing alison/tutuu. the motivations for this, if it actually happened, definitely needs to be probed @Michelle

5) i went into n2 pretty sus of mp7, and was in fact the lone voter on her d2 before proto was killed (nobody else even voted that day, lol). i also intended to get more information from 1612 and jeraldoo, if possible. i came out of this with a slight town lean on 1612. at one point i was looking at what i thought were proto's legacy reads (it turned out to in fact be mp7's d1 read list, oops). this list suggested that alison was clear, and i was intrigued by the town reads on urist and dys. liking these reads is what led to my offhand claim that "alison town implies michelle is mafia". michelle became extremely defensive of this statement and immediately omgussed me. moreover, her interactions with me since then do not address the big picture of my current reads. rather, they are simply nitpicking my statements out of context

6) i would suggest pressuring mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted for an explanation of how exactly they came to the conclusion that alison and tutuu were town. their answers to these questions will be very telling. given the world where my candidate scumteam pockets alison and tutuu all game, the earlier they point out that they knew tutuu was cop, the more sus they are @M Plus 7 @Michelle @tedxtr

call this all mafia tmi if u want, idrc. i feel absolutely great about these reads, so much so that i'm almost tempted to self-vote today since i'm fucking exhausted and it would be an easy way to draw more attention to the world i see. i'm not going to do this out of respect for my fellow players, and on the off-chance that cobbler-ted is not the third mafia -- i wouldn't want to waste our last misbanish. i will put mp7/michelle scum at 90% certainty, mp7 gf at 80%, and cobbler mafia at 70%

let me just say that i will hold the L for the rest of my life if urist is mafia. pocketing me n1 with a billboard town response to my n1 reaction check, and then leading me down the path i'm on now, if it's misguided, is literally the plot of the movie inception

i'm voting mp7 now

tl;dr fucking iso me if u misbanish me, mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted are probably scum, this game is solved
banish mp7 --> michelle --> cobbler --> jeraldoo

Legacy reads. Let's talk about them and not let a townie's voice drop into the void like we usually do, yeah?

[Dyslexicon]

Given that the mafia can quickhammer if someone votes wrong, I will ask that instead of voting in the poll, someone take up the role of recording votes, and at the EOD, everyone agrees to vote that person.

Yup. No rogue votes next day, please.

[Dyslexicon]

I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

And if 1612 is town?

[Dyslexicon]

Like, it's very easy to say yeeting Lav was bad after the fact we know he's town.

[speedchuck]

Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

This is garbo.

Picking up two of the easier targets left in the game and saying 'Yep, game is all but solved' when there isn't a single scumlynch to analyse for partner interactions is insane.

And yes, I know what I quoted there is not what you said. You can argue semantics. But this is a lazy pass at claiming a gamestate that isn't true. A gamestate that will cause complacency and guarantee that town loses.

Actually, I'm going to further elaborate on this. 1612, easily one of the worse players from my comparison, is not on this list. Why? Please tell me.
Cobbler-Cartenoid-whoever-else, a player that has now been replaced TWICE, is not on this list. (my experience finds that replacements are more often mafia, and yes I'm aware of the hypocrisy). Why is that?

Despite this suspect list consisting of nothing but complacent, 'I guess they're scum because no one else is' picks, we've had three straight days of banishments that went down the tubes. Why is that? Just bad luck?
Or, if I'm wrong, is there a specific reason to suspect me? (there might be one for Michelle, but I haven't read it yet)

I will read Michelle today.

[Dyslexicon]

Regardless, @Michelle certainly needs to answer for her complacency. I need to be satisfied.

i am not complacent, it was weekend and I was busy.
I am sorry i was wrong about Lavander, i see suspecting for power wolves is not always the answer.

What do you mean by this?

[Dyslexicon]

[mention]Alison[/mention] Let me see if I can gather my thoughts. Speed, Urist and MP wanted to yeet 1612 over Lavender. If 1612 is town this doesn't mean much. If 1612 is scum however, it's either a bus or scum team is 1612/Michelle/Cobbtedcarot, which is entirely possible. I think that if 1612 is scum, Michelle is scum too, cause why would he put so much energy into defending Lavender as town between the two? Doesn't make sense if they were both town and he is scum. It's either TMI or just an actual read. I'm trying to imagine a world where Michelle is town. Then that would make either Urist or MP, or even both scum. I don't believe in that. And it also would be shit luck to have Urist as godfather here. Michelle/1612/X is probably still the most likely world here to me. Does this track?

[Urist]

I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

And if 1612 is town?

I'd have a better solve today.
I'm done being a whiny bitch though so let's move on.
I'm also going to read Michelle today. I still think that if 1612 is mafia, there was probably a buddy on the Lav & Urist wagons that made him comfortable posting hard town reads on us. Michelle is the only common link there I think (M+7 was on both wagons, but joined Lav early so doesn't really count).

[Dyslexicon]

If MP is scum she's been pocketing me all game, and I won't use too strong words, but that will make me feel pretty dejected. Not that she shouldn't. I just don't want this to be the case. And I know that's not a good reason for taking any action, but I still feel MP should not be the yeet now as that would basically be a paranoia yeet from my perspective. This EoD made me feel stronger about her being town, even with the Lav town flip. If she's scum here, then holy fucking shit, we could've just not played the game

[Dyslexicon]

How is this game still hard? It's just 1612/Michelle/X?

[speedchuck]

also just going to throw it out there that a) even if you know who the cop is, it's not always the correct play to kill them, and b) now that the cop is revealed it's easy enough to say "oh yeah i knew who it was".
my first thought when scirrus was killed was, "oh yeah this scum team must be feeling really comfy if they don't even bother hunting for the cop".

/tinfoil

and the winner for the scum team who would feel the most comfy at that point in the game goes to...

mp7/michelle/cobbler

I'm not sure how to feel about this proposed alignment between Michelle and MP7.
Michelle opened the game in favor for MP, literally first post. Michelle has never suspected MP.
MP heavily suspects Michelle, and Michelle kinda just slaps and says 'stop.' I don't think there's any counter-suspicion there, throughout the whole game.

And yeah, I just read over Michelle's ISO. It's easier to get something out of it when there are scum flips to work with. I'll look a little harder.

I think that if 1612 is scum, Michelle is scum too, cause why would he put so much energy into defending Lavender as town between the two?

Expplain this pls