Magic the Gathering Mafia - Game Over - Mafia has won!

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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3301

Post by hollowkatt »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:50 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:46 am
Justplayingitcool wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:59 pm
Sloonei wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:31 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:22 pm
Sloonei wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:16 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:15 pm

you're reading for content but the context is also important to note.
what does this mean?
That of all the people you list Jack is most confident in Enrique?
Also, why isn't Urist in your POE of 6?
I get that. I was just saying that there should be one other town-read in there if he’d be comfortable giving one.

I don’t know. People don’t seem to be suspecting Urist when I ask for suspects. I thought someone implied there was a mechanical reason to view him as town.

I am just pooling together what seems to be the consensus opinion among the responses I’ve gotten. I haven’f actually read stuff.
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:39 pm I think Urist/112 are tied together with the way Urist handled Bolas and the way he's town reading the slot even without being able to commit to a townread on 112 themselves. Yeah, I get not having read through all the posts yet, that's fair
If we yeet Urist, and he’s mafia, I get a vig shot. I am currently aiming it at 112 right now.

Get ready, folks
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I've already put damage on 112, your shot may be better elsewhere
I'm open to letting the neighbourhood council lock my kill in if I get the vig
The council will consider your proposal
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3302

Post by hollowkatt »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:00 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:45 am
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:35 am
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:21 am right, except that the marked people that day were sloonei and epi, and the added marks are now jack and you

So there was no way in hell Guillo/Epi were being chopped yesterday, yeah? Like I think we can all agree on that. So no way to earn vig shots for mafia in those two. They're never dying.
Having the marks today be you and jack again guarantees that at most they'll have you in contention for a mark chop. Worst case situation is the mark on you is real, you're town, and jpic is mafia and we lose.
Best case situation is the person we chop is mafia and the marker, yeah?
Would scumjpic know that Epi had no chance of being executed when he sent the mark? This was before Epi had claimed mason with Marmot.
You're focusing too much on what is currently happening this game instead of whether it makes sense from a design perspective. But let's be real, I don't think this mech discussion is very productive.

A question for you now. In the neighborhood, who was being discussed as the execution target? If jpic is mafia, I'd give a stern look toward the person who was being discussed as well as the people in the neighborhood.
you and JPIC are the two people we've been focusing on.
So unless there's a mole in the 'hood it's coincidental that it's the two of you being up for a dome.
I real marked Urist before any of you lot ended up in the hood together to discuss anybody. Unfortunately, I am not clairvoyant.
Same night, so IF you're a wolf and IF you're a wolf with TSP (b/c Epi isn't a wolf and I'm not a wolf) this could have been planned.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3303

Post by Justplayingitcool »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:02 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:00 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:45 am
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:35 am
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:21 am right, except that the marked people that day were sloonei and epi, and the added marks are now jack and you

So there was no way in hell Guillo/Epi were being chopped yesterday, yeah? Like I think we can all agree on that. So no way to earn vig shots for mafia in those two. They're never dying.
Having the marks today be you and jack again guarantees that at most they'll have you in contention for a mark chop. Worst case situation is the mark on you is real, you're town, and jpic is mafia and we lose.
Best case situation is the person we chop is mafia and the marker, yeah?
Would scumjpic know that Epi had no chance of being executed when he sent the mark? This was before Epi had claimed mason with Marmot.
You're focusing too much on what is currently happening this game instead of whether it makes sense from a design perspective. But let's be real, I don't think this mech discussion is very productive.

A question for you now. In the neighborhood, who was being discussed as the execution target? If jpic is mafia, I'd give a stern look toward the person who was being discussed as well as the people in the neighborhood.
you and JPIC are the two people we've been focusing on.
So unless there's a mole in the 'hood it's coincidental that it's the two of you being up for a dome.
I real marked Urist before any of you lot ended up in the hood together to discuss anybody. Unfortunately, I am not clairvoyant.
Same night, so IF you're a wolf and IF you're a wolf with TSP (b/c Epi isn't a wolf and I'm not a wolf) this could have been planned.
OK, but presumably you've only just started talking about Urist and myself this day phase. Who initially brought up Urist/me in the hood?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3304

Post by hollowkatt »

@Justplayingitcool your dome with urist brought it up. We were originally looking at Enrique/LC with the whole leaf thing. Then Tutuu pinged us with a link to the Thunderdome post so we shifted gears to trying to solve between the two of you.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3305

Post by Justplayingitcool »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:08 pm @Justplayingitcool your dome with urist brought it up. We were originally looking at Enrique/LC with the whole leaf thing. Then Tutuu pinged us with a link to the Thunderdome post so we shifted gears to trying to solve between the two of you.
Oh? your post implied to me that you were both discussing me and Urist before the dome happened
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3306

Post by hollowkatt »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:10 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:08 pm @Justplayingitcool your dome with urist brought it up. We were originally looking at Enrique/LC with the whole leaf thing. Then Tutuu pinged us with a link to the Thunderdome post so we shifted gears to trying to solve between the two of you.
Oh? your post implied to me that you were both discussing me and Urist before the dome happened
Not as the chops for the day. Both of you have been independently discussed but not as a pair to solve within.
Epi entered chat most suspicious of you and 112. I entered most suspicious of Urist/112
TSP talked about you early in chat as well.

We didn't really start talking about where we think the chop should be until LC/Enrique started their leaf thing. Now that there's a dome we've been focusing on solving the two of you
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3307

Post by Justplayingitcool »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:14 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:10 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:08 pm @Justplayingitcool your dome with urist brought it up. We were originally looking at Enrique/LC with the whole leaf thing. Then Tutuu pinged us with a link to the Thunderdome post so we shifted gears to trying to solve between the two of you.
Oh? your post implied to me that you were both discussing me and Urist before the dome happened
Not as the chops for the day. Both of you have been independently discussed but not as a pair to solve within.
Epi entered chat most suspicious of you and 112. I entered most suspicious of Urist/112
TSP talked about you early in chat as well.

We didn't really start talking about where we think the chop should be until LC/Enrique started their leaf thing. Now that there's a dome we've been focusing on solving the two of you
Ah, ok. I thought you meant me and Urist as the chops of the day. But if it was just an independent thing then that makes more sense.

Anyway, I'm going to lay everything I have done and reasons why

N1: I used my gladiator ability to charge myself so I can generate a duel token. That duel token can only be used on the people I mark and during the day. The token has to be submitted before the Mana deadline.
N2: I real marked Epi and fake marked Guillo. I real marked Epi because I had thought he was outed with the ted yeet, and he was saved by scum. I thought he had w/w equity with marmot. Obviously, that went down the pan with Marmot's flip and Epi heavily implying he was the mason partner. I didn't know who to fake mark because I didn't really see the point in it. I chose guillo because that's who came to mind as the lion pics were still kinda annoying me.

During D3, I changed my mind on how to use the fake marking and instead decide to fake mark a town because of Enrique's post below. I wanted to make it clear which one was the real/fake mark so more attention would go against the real one, and the fake one ignored. I would have fake marked Epi but whoops. I was deciding to fake mark between HK/Jack, and I decided to go with Jack because I think he's been a lot 'cleaner'. I still town read HK but he has done a few things that were minorly scummy, so I trusted him less than Jack.
Spoiler: show
Enrique wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:13 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:44 pm [VOTE: enrique] aubergine
:flushed:

I think JPIC and Wilgy might be as good a pool as we're gonna get (if Guill or Jack or whoever votes Mac).
Guillotine wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:46 pm
tutuu wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:03 pm @Epignosis has been permanently Marked! The mark is either real or fake. If the following conditions are all met:
-Epignosis gets chopped at any point during the game
-The mark is real (and not fake)
-The person who marked Epignosis is still alive
-The person who marked Epignosis has the opposite alignment of Epignosis

Then the person who marked Epignosis will receive the following reward during the night:

Image

Elaborations:
-Fleeting means that it must be used immediately as soon as it is acquired. You can choose not to use it, but then it disappears

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@Guillotine has been permanently Marked! The mark is either real or fake. If the following conditions are all met:
-Guillotine gets chopped at any point during the game
-The mark is real (and not fake)
-The person who marked Guillotine is still alive
-The person who marked Guillotine has the opposite alignment of Guillotine

Then the person who marked Guillotine will receive the following reward during the night:

Image

Elaborations:
-Fleeting means that it must be used immediately as soon as it is acquired. You can choose not to use it, but then it disappears
I think this was a town action to protect both Epi and Myself. A town action that would give the player vig shots if we died, I think this player townread us both and this action was a way to secure our survival, at least until mafia found out who this player is, or should we die, the player would vig shot suspects off our flips.

It gotta be because why mafia would spew Epignosis and myself town with this action? It clearly says right there that if the mark is real and the player who marked us is of our opposite alignment... never mind, OPPOSITE ALIGNMENT! God! I'm so dumb. :pout:



Ok so, it is a mafia action. So why mafia would spew us town just two get two vig shots?

What if one mark is fake and the other one is real? I know I'm town and I know wolves fear my PGO abilities and they need to get rid of me during the day? If Epignosis was not uncounterclaimed as Marmot's mason partner, I would believe that Epignosis is the mafia here then.

How?

Mafia decide to mark their teammate and me, they know they won't get a vig shot if Epignosis is chopped, so the plan is to spew him town with the mark and claiming he is the mason partner so he is actually not chopped!
Then mark me for real and get me mischopped, getting rid of the PGO and and getting a vig shot off of my death. Win-Win for mafia.

But Epignosis has not been COUNTERCLAIMED by anyone as mason, so epignosis is the other mason thus he is town too.

So why did mafia do it? they were counting on getting us mischopped eventually. They were planning to set us up so we'd get chopped ignoring our marks? How? They must be really confident about their abilities to get us chopped in spite of this curse placed upon us by them!!. Are wolves this arrogant? are wolves this stupid? If not. Then what's the deal? Is there more?

What if the action is from town but both marks are fake? Would this scare wolves off? Wolves need to reach parity and this action would not stop them. Nah.

What if the action is from town and he marked us both believing we were w/w? If this is the case, this townie needs one of us to flip to confirm their suspicion in the hopes of getting a vig shot (which in my case they never will). Further more, a curse is viewed as a scummy action if not claimed. If this action came from town and thought we were wolves, he didn't think it through because he spewed us town, we are not getting chopped, he is not getting answers and in their eyes, it would have helped wolves if we were mafia aligned. Would a townie be this stupid to use an action like this on us to get two vig shots? I don't think so!

I'm tinfoiling a lot here. What is the simplest explanation then? Who is most likely the marker? Town or Mafia?

---------------------

Two, I thought the silencing came with the curse but no, I was silenced separately. So I got marked and silenced. Assholes! I know you are doing your jobs but... you are assholes wolves. You precisely silence the guy who can't keep his mouth shut. :pout:

-----------------------

If you guys townread Macdougall I can place a vote on him that will count as three, but then he gotta place his vote on me to save me as well.

Oh never mind, I'm out of posts... the next vote will be 11th post and I get shot. So the only way I'd attempt to save Mac is if he is worth saving.
------------------------

The curse mark says that if I get chopped (yeeted) then whoever placed their mark on me will get a vig shot, so don't chop me but if you ever wolf read me, day vig me, don't give whoever is doing this a vig shot by chopping me, or night vig me.. but then you'll die too. Meh

This is post #10
This is a good post. I had a couple of ideas that don't match this completely but I like the open thought process.

Here's what I thought: if I was a town and I had the marking power, and in this exercise I'm assuming one of the marks is real and one of them is fake because they came together and each has a 50/50 chance, I would have real-marked whoever I thought was bad and fake-marked a lock townie / someone I trusted. The contrast should've been starker anyway so if this is how it worked then I think the marker failed at making clear which was which. I thought Epi looked pretty good yesterday because of the whole mana donation thing, but he almost died so a bunch of people clearly thought the opposite. About Guill I'm just gonna say.... like half the notes I've taken on this game are about him, and I haven't arrived at anything conclusive, but I think it's good? lol. He's not clearly enough on either side for this to work.

If the marker is bad then it's about the WIFOM. They would want to use the power, so they would real-mark someone they thought they could lynch (Epi looked kinda easy before the Marmot reveal). It's also coupled with the reverse-lynch though so they have greater lynch-manipulation than usual. The fake mark is harder. It could just be someone to take the fall when the other one flipped civ (I don't think the host mentioned if the mark is revealed as real or fake with the flip), or it could just be hiding a teammate in plain sight. There's no easy answer to what's going on if it's this option, but Guill looks fine, and I wouldn't yeet him just for this.

It could also be a coincidence, they could be from two different players, they could both be fake, both be real, etc. This is why I wasn't sure if it was even worth talking about, like, if we're not gonna lynch them then how much does it matter? Epi is essentially a confirmed civ and there isn't a case on Guill, so unless that changes we should just worry about the other thing.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3308

Post by hollowkatt »

I want to believe you
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3309

Post by hollowkatt »

@Justplayingitcool where's the reasoning on marking Urist, or did you type HK instead of Urist?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3310

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:21 am right, except that the marked people that day were sloonei and epi, and the added marks are now jack and you

So there was no way in hell Guillo/Epi were being chopped yesterday, yeah? Like I think we can all agree on that. So no way to earn vig shots for mafia in those two. They're never dying.
Having the marks today be you and jack again guarantees that at most they'll have you in contention for a mark chop. Worst case situation is the mark on you is real, you're town, and jpic is mafia and we lose.
Best case situation is the person we chop is mafia and the marker, yeah?
My main question about the marks is why those people? Iirc, I have every marked player north of null.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3311

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:53 am Like, you know that if TSP is mafia he can say literally anything right.
Waaaaaaait. Wait wait wait wait.

@tutuu can you clarify if wolves are allowed to lie itg?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3312

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

I kinda hate HK’s play today a lot.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3313

Post by hollowkatt »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:20 pm I kinda hate HK’s play today a lot.
yeah well I'm not dying today so deal with it
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3314

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

I think Urist is town and JPI and HK and 112 are the wolves. That’s where I’m at atm.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3315

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:55 pm If all the marks were fake then why would I bother using my gladiator ability? There is literally a card I win confirmed by the mods if the real mark is yeeted.
Makes no sense. Gladiator is basically a personal king me for those among us that are unyeetable. Marks be damned.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3316

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:50 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:46 am
Justplayingitcool wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:59 pm
Sloonei wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:31 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:22 pm
Sloonei wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:16 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:15 pm

you're reading for content but the context is also important to note.
what does this mean?
That of all the people you list Jack is most confident in Enrique?
Also, why isn't Urist in your POE of 6?
I get that. I was just saying that there should be one other town-read in there if he’d be comfortable giving one.

I don’t know. People don’t seem to be suspecting Urist when I ask for suspects. I thought someone implied there was a mechanical reason to view him as town.

I am just pooling together what seems to be the consensus opinion among the responses I’ve gotten. I haven’f actually read stuff.
hollowkatt wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:39 pm I think Urist/112 are tied together with the way Urist handled Bolas and the way he's town reading the slot even without being able to commit to a townread on 112 themselves. Yeah, I get not having read through all the posts yet, that's fair
If we yeet Urist, and he’s mafia, I get a vig shot. I am currently aiming it at 112 right now.

Get ready, folks
Spoiler: show
I've already put damage on 112, your shot may be better elsewhere
I'm open to letting the neighbourhood council lock my kill in if I get the vig
Unless he’s just a wolf and he’s lying.

Hate this post. Hate HK’s response to it.

This is wolf theatre.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3317

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:36 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:14 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:10 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:08 pm @Justplayingitcool your dome with urist brought it up. We were originally looking at Enrique/LC with the whole leaf thing. Then Tutuu pinged us with a link to the Thunderdome post so we shifted gears to trying to solve between the two of you.
Oh? your post implied to me that you were both discussing me and Urist before the dome happened
Not as the chops for the day. Both of you have been independently discussed but not as a pair to solve within.
Epi entered chat most suspicious of you and 112. I entered most suspicious of Urist/112
TSP talked about you early in chat as well.

We didn't really start talking about where we think the chop should be until LC/Enrique started their leaf thing. Now that there's a dome we've been focusing on solving the two of you
Ah, ok. I thought you meant me and Urist as the chops of the day. But if it was just an independent thing then that makes more sense.

Anyway, I'm going to lay everything I have done and reasons why

N1: I used my gladiator ability to charge myself so I can generate a duel token. That duel token can only be used on the people I mark and during the day. The token has to be submitted before the Mana deadline.
N2: I real marked Epi and fake marked Guillo. I real marked Epi because I had thought he was outed with the ted yeet, and he was saved by scum. I thought he had w/w equity with marmot. Obviously, that went down the pan with Marmot's flip and Epi heavily implying he was the mason partner. I didn't know who to fake mark because I didn't really see the point in it. I chose guillo because that's who came to mind as the lion pics were still kinda annoying me.

During D3, I changed my mind on how to use the fake marking and instead decide to fake mark a town because of Enrique's post below. I wanted to make it clear which one was the real/fake mark so more attention would go against the real one, and the fake one ignored. I would have fake marked Epi but whoops. I was deciding to fake mark between HK/Jack, and I decided to go with Jack because I think he's been a lot 'cleaner'. I still town read HK but he has done a few things that were minorly scummy, so I trusted him less than Jack.
Spoiler: show
Enrique wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:13 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:44 pm [VOTE: enrique] aubergine
:flushed:

I think JPIC and Wilgy might be as good a pool as we're gonna get (if Guill or Jack or whoever votes Mac).
Guillotine wrote: Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:46 pm
tutuu wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:03 pm @Epignosis has been permanently Marked! The mark is either real or fake. If the following conditions are all met:
-Epignosis gets chopped at any point during the game
-The mark is real (and not fake)
-The person who marked Epignosis is still alive
-The person who marked Epignosis has the opposite alignment of Epignosis

Then the person who marked Epignosis will receive the following reward during the night:

Image

Elaborations:
-Fleeting means that it must be used immediately as soon as it is acquired. You can choose not to use it, but then it disappears

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@Guillotine has been permanently Marked! The mark is either real or fake. If the following conditions are all met:
-Guillotine gets chopped at any point during the game
-The mark is real (and not fake)
-The person who marked Guillotine is still alive
-The person who marked Guillotine has the opposite alignment of Guillotine

Then the person who marked Guillotine will receive the following reward during the night:

Image

Elaborations:
-Fleeting means that it must be used immediately as soon as it is acquired. You can choose not to use it, but then it disappears
I think this was a town action to protect both Epi and Myself. A town action that would give the player vig shots if we died, I think this player townread us both and this action was a way to secure our survival, at least until mafia found out who this player is, or should we die, the player would vig shot suspects off our flips.

It gotta be because why mafia would spew Epignosis and myself town with this action? It clearly says right there that if the mark is real and the player who marked us is of our opposite alignment... never mind, OPPOSITE ALIGNMENT! God! I'm so dumb. :pout:



Ok so, it is a mafia action. So why mafia would spew us town just two get two vig shots?

What if one mark is fake and the other one is real? I know I'm town and I know wolves fear my PGO abilities and they need to get rid of me during the day? If Epignosis was not uncounterclaimed as Marmot's mason partner, I would believe that Epignosis is the mafia here then.

How?

Mafia decide to mark their teammate and me, they know they won't get a vig shot if Epignosis is chopped, so the plan is to spew him town with the mark and claiming he is the mason partner so he is actually not chopped!
Then mark me for real and get me mischopped, getting rid of the PGO and and getting a vig shot off of my death. Win-Win for mafia.

But Epignosis has not been COUNTERCLAIMED by anyone as mason, so epignosis is the other mason thus he is town too.

So why did mafia do it? they were counting on getting us mischopped eventually. They were planning to set us up so we'd get chopped ignoring our marks? How? They must be really confident about their abilities to get us chopped in spite of this curse placed upon us by them!!. Are wolves this arrogant? are wolves this stupid? If not. Then what's the deal? Is there more?

What if the action is from town but both marks are fake? Would this scare wolves off? Wolves need to reach parity and this action would not stop them. Nah.

What if the action is from town and he marked us both believing we were w/w? If this is the case, this townie needs one of us to flip to confirm their suspicion in the hopes of getting a vig shot (which in my case they never will). Further more, a curse is viewed as a scummy action if not claimed. If this action came from town and thought we were wolves, he didn't think it through because he spewed us town, we are not getting chopped, he is not getting answers and in their eyes, it would have helped wolves if we were mafia aligned. Would a townie be this stupid to use an action like this on us to get two vig shots? I don't think so!

I'm tinfoiling a lot here. What is the simplest explanation then? Who is most likely the marker? Town or Mafia?

---------------------

Two, I thought the silencing came with the curse but no, I was silenced separately. So I got marked and silenced. Assholes! I know you are doing your jobs but... you are assholes wolves. You precisely silence the guy who can't keep his mouth shut. :pout:

-----------------------

If you guys townread Macdougall I can place a vote on him that will count as three, but then he gotta place his vote on me to save me as well.

Oh never mind, I'm out of posts... the next vote will be 11th post and I get shot. So the only way I'd attempt to save Mac is if he is worth saving.
------------------------

The curse mark says that if I get chopped (yeeted) then whoever placed their mark on me will get a vig shot, so don't chop me but if you ever wolf read me, day vig me, don't give whoever is doing this a vig shot by chopping me, or night vig me.. but then you'll die too. Meh

This is post #10
This is a good post. I had a couple of ideas that don't match this completely but I like the open thought process.

Here's what I thought: if I was a town and I had the marking power, and in this exercise I'm assuming one of the marks is real and one of them is fake because they came together and each has a 50/50 chance, I would have real-marked whoever I thought was bad and fake-marked a lock townie / someone I trusted. The contrast should've been starker anyway so if this is how it worked then I think the marker failed at making clear which was which. I thought Epi looked pretty good yesterday because of the whole mana donation thing, but he almost died so a bunch of people clearly thought the opposite. About Guill I'm just gonna say.... like half the notes I've taken on this game are about him, and I haven't arrived at anything conclusive, but I think it's good? lol. He's not clearly enough on either side for this to work.

If the marker is bad then it's about the WIFOM. They would want to use the power, so they would real-mark someone they thought they could lynch (Epi looked kinda easy before the Marmot reveal). It's also coupled with the reverse-lynch though so they have greater lynch-manipulation than usual. The fake mark is harder. It could just be someone to take the fall when the other one flipped civ (I don't think the host mentioned if the mark is revealed as real or fake with the flip), or it could just be hiding a teammate in plain sight. There's no easy answer to what's going on if it's this option, but Guill looks fine, and I wouldn't yeet him just for this.

It could also be a coincidence, they could be from two different players, they could both be fake, both be real, etc. This is why I wasn't sure if it was even worth talking about, like, if we're not gonna lynch them then how much does it matter? Epi is essentially a confirmed civ and there isn't a case on Guill, so unless that changes we should just worry about the other thing.
This is reasonable but I still think JPIC is a wolf.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3318

Post by Urist »

If I'm still alive tonight I'll be protecting Epi. So at the very worst the mafia will have to counter me if they want the confirmed town to die.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3319

Post by Enrique »

This is how I feel right now.



I think Urist is civ, and even his going after me has reinforced that thought. JPIC was almost a lock mafia before but all this fuckery he claims actually makes sense; still can't fully trust him, and if we're wrong then the consequences are just a little too much for town to bear. I think he's the better option. Feeling a little bit of doom regardless, lol.

What's really fucking me up is that if JPIC's mafia and he wins, WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE (it's not an "automatic loss" as it's been framed) if the vigs move against him and do enough damage to kill. I was going to say we can't coordinate that publicly if they have a blocker, but actually who cares? They're still probably gonna block the vigs to be safe (we were talking about repeat roles earlier and totally forgot about this, but what's the difference between hk and falcon anyway? If one of them is lying that's also really dire at this point).

If JPIC is town, Urist is mafia, and this whole thing works, 112 is a reasonable vig option because of association, but I still feel worse about TSP/LC and whatever shady shit's been happening there. Basically I think we should be talking about vig shots as much as we're talking about the poll that most of us don't have a say in.

If both of them are town then lmao.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3320

Post by hollowkatt »

Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:41 pm If I'm still alive tonight I'll be protecting Epi. So at the very worst the mafia will have to counter me if they want the confirmed town to die.
it will also silence him.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3321

Post by Urist »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:41 pm If I'm still alive tonight I'll be protecting Epi. So at the very worst the mafia will have to counter me if they want the confirmed town to die.
it will also silence him.
Being dead would silence him even more.
But I don't think Epi has made 10 posts yet today. Would we even notice if he was silenced?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3322

Post by Urist »

Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm What's really fucking me up is that if JPIC's mafia and he wins, WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE (it's not an "automatic loss" as it's been framed) if the vigs move against him and do enough damage to kill. I was going to say we can't coordinate that publicly if they have a blocker, but actually who cares? They're still probably gonna block the vigs to be safe (we were talking about repeat roles earlier and totally forgot about this, but what's the difference between hk and falcon anyway? If one of them is lying that's also really dire at this point).
I don't like this train of thought. Even if I get executed here, I don't think jpic would be my #1 choice of vig shot.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3323

Post by hollowkatt »

Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:50 pm
Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm What's really fucking me up is that if JPIC's mafia and he wins, WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE (it's not an "automatic loss" as it's been framed) if the vigs move against him and do enough damage to kill. I was going to say we can't coordinate that publicly if they have a blocker, but actually who cares? They're still probably gonna block the vigs to be safe (we were talking about repeat roles earlier and totally forgot about this, but what's the difference between hk and falcon anyway? If one of them is lying that's also really dire at this point).
I don't like this train of thought. Even if I get executed here, I don't think jpic would be my #1 choice of vig shot.
Are you saying you think you and JPIC are town/town?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3324

Post by Urist »

If jpic does flip mafia btw, I think this analysis is valid: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 3&p=753263
i.e. LC and Guillotine look the worst from the d2 wagon on jpic.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3325

Post by Urist »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:51 pm
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:50 pm
Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm What's really fucking me up is that if JPIC's mafia and he wins, WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE (it's not an "automatic loss" as it's been framed) if the vigs move against him and do enough damage to kill. I was going to say we can't coordinate that publicly if they have a blocker, but actually who cares? They're still probably gonna block the vigs to be safe (we were talking about repeat roles earlier and totally forgot about this, but what's the difference between hk and falcon anyway? If one of them is lying that's also really dire at this point).
I don't like this train of thought. Even if I get executed here, I don't think jpic would be my #1 choice of vig shot.
Are you saying you think you and JPIC are town/town?
I'm saying it's possible and that if I were a vig, I'd prefer to shoot LC first. I think he has a higher chance of a scumflip than jpic.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3326

Post by Enrique »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:41 pm If I'm still alive tonight I'll be protecting Epi. So at the very worst the mafia will have to counter me if they want the confirmed town to die.
it will also silence him.
Epi really shouldn't die when the PoE is so narrow.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3327

Post by Justplayingitcool »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:14 pm @Justplayingitcool where's the reasoning on marking Urist, or did you type HK instead of Urist?
I real marked Urist because:

A) I was suspicious of the people who were crossvoting
B) I chose Urist because my reads have been terrible so far this game. I scumread Kyle and Marmot, and they both ended up being night killed back-to-back. I was townreading Urist. However, I thought 112 was wolfy so his association there looked like shielding which I didn’t like. I hated his read on you. I’ve been thinking about why the wolves kept me alive after wilgy and it’s probably because from my perspective I’ve been a valuable player for them so far.

I hated the below post because I disagreed with the read. HK felt towny during the Ted push and I think it’s rare for a wolf to do a yolo wagon at like D1/D2
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Urist wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:48 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:33 pm
Urist wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:32 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:29 pm
Urist wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:26 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Urist wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:13 pm Also I'm never voting to save hk here LOL like what.

Enrique, you really think that Wilgy is more worthy of a save than Jack?
Hi wolf! Sorry about your rand
See I don't think a town reaction to "I'm not saving you" is to snarkily call me a wolf. I wasn't even speaking to you.
You weren't, but you did specifically say you're never voting to save me, the guy who's working hard to solve people, making good posts, and generally not being wolfy. So you coming out and saying you're never voting to save me strikes me as incredibly wolfy.
Ok so you're saying that if you're town, misreading you is scummy. Got it. I'll just pretend that makes sense and doesn't look like you're looking for reasons to suspect people.
lol ok whatever. why do you have a wolf read on me?
Aside from the above?
I don't trust the fact that you pushed so hard on ted for shitty reasons from d0. You tried to back up your argument by saying he was being defensive and deflecting, but you couldn't provide evidence for that. You pushed him and called him a lock wolf and were unwilling to reconsider your read on him until he was dead, and then after he flipped town you just moved on to the next person as if nothing happened. Your reads didn't change at all. I see no progression from you. You're just going down the line, locking in on easy targets and trying to get them executed. You tried going after Jack, and backed off after the slightest pushback.
Your turn, explain your read on me please.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3328

Post by Justplayingitcool »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:55 pm If all the marks were fake then why would I bother using my gladiator ability? There is literally a card I win confirmed by the mods if the real mark is yeeted.
Makes no sense. Gladiator is basically a personal king me for those among us that are unyeetable. Marks be damned.
I can only use the gladiator role on the people I have marked.

The theory was that all of my marks are fake. If that was the case, why would I use my gladiator role for no reason and a higher chance of getting yeeted?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3329

Post by tutuu »

Question: If a player getting chopped causes a real mark to trigger, and a "Pursue" artifact token to be handed out, would that be revealed in the thread?

Answer: No, there will be no feedback posted in the thread about the outcome of marked people getting chopped regardless of what that outcome is
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3330

Post by Enrique »

Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:54 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:51 pm
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:50 pm
Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:46 pm What's really fucking me up is that if JPIC's mafia and he wins, WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE (it's not an "automatic loss" as it's been framed) if the vigs move against him and do enough damage to kill. I was going to say we can't coordinate that publicly if they have a blocker, but actually who cares? They're still probably gonna block the vigs to be safe (we were talking about repeat roles earlier and totally forgot about this, but what's the difference between hk and falcon anyway? If one of them is lying that's also really dire at this point).
I don't like this train of thought. Even if I get executed here, I don't think jpic would be my #1 choice of vig shot.
Are you saying you think you and JPIC are town/town?
I'm saying it's possible and that if I were a vig, I'd prefer to shoot LC first. I think he has a higher chance of a scumflip than jpic.
Actually I agree.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3331

Post by Enrique »

@Sloonei @112 @falcon45ca wasup bros
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3332

Post by falcon45ca »

Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:23 pm @Sloonei @112 @falcon45ca wasup bros
Hello Enrique
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3333

Post by Sloonei »

Enrique wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:23 pm @Sloonei @112 @falcon45ca wasup bros
:shrug:
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3334

Post by Sloonei »

I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3335

Post by hollowkatt »

Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:43 pm I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
@Sloonei given the --- are the line between town and scum, how do you feel about this list?
and if you could move one from town into scum and/or one from scum into town who?

Sloonei
TSP
Epi
HK
LC
Enrique
------
Falcon
JPIC
Jack
Urist
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3336

Post by Sloonei »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:43 pm I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
@Sloonei given the --- are the line between town and scum, how do you feel about this list?
and if you could move one from town into scum and/or one from scum into town who?

Sloonei
TSP
Epi
HK
LC
Enrique
------
Falcon
JPIC
Jack
Urist
112
My reads are merely an aggregate of what I have seen suggested by others in the thread over the last several pages. I have little to no independent thoughts on any of these players. But the impression I get is that Jack belongs in the town pile, and one of you or LC can be put into the scum pile.

Why are you asking me this?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3337

Post by hollowkatt »

Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:49 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:43 pm I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
@Sloonei given the --- are the line between town and scum, how do you feel about this list?
and if you could move one from town into scum and/or one from scum into town who?

Sloonei
TSP
Epi
HK
LC
Enrique
------
Falcon
JPIC
Jack
Urist
112
My reads are merely an aggregate of what I have seen suggested by others in the thread over the last several pages. I have little to no independent thoughts on any of these players. But the impression I get is that Jack belongs in the town pile, and one of you or LC can be put into the scum pile.

Why are you asking me this?
Because I think you're town and regardless of whether or not you have a solid grasp on the thread I do not think you have an agenda here other than kill mafia.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3338

Post by Sloonei »

hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:51 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:49 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:43 pm I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
@Sloonei given the --- are the line between town and scum, how do you feel about this list?
and if you could move one from town into scum and/or one from scum into town who?

Sloonei
TSP
Epi
HK
LC
Enrique
------
Falcon
JPIC
Jack
Urist
112
My reads are merely an aggregate of what I have seen suggested by others in the thread over the last several pages. I have little to no independent thoughts on any of these players. But the impression I get is that Jack belongs in the town pile, and one of you or LC can be put into the scum pile.

Why are you asking me this?
Because I think you're town and regardless of whether or not you have a solid grasp on the thread I do not think you have an agenda here other than kill mafia.
But how does my answer help you?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3339

Post by hollowkatt »

Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:53 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:51 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:49 pm
hollowkatt wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:43 pm I subbed in late to a game with no dead wolves and lots and lots of confusing mechanics, on a day where I have no voting power and am largely unable to commit much time to playing the game anyway. I am in possession of zero answers.
@Sloonei given the --- are the line between town and scum, how do you feel about this list?
and if you could move one from town into scum and/or one from scum into town who?

Sloonei
TSP
Epi
HK
LC
Enrique
------
Falcon
JPIC
Jack
Urist
112
My reads are merely an aggregate of what I have seen suggested by others in the thread over the last several pages. I have little to no independent thoughts on any of these players. But the impression I get is that Jack belongs in the town pile, and one of you or LC can be put into the scum pile.

Why are you asking me this?
Because I think you're town and regardless of whether or not you have a solid grasp on the thread I do not think you have an agenda here other than kill mafia.
But how does my answer help you?
because it gives me perspective that I don't currently have. You may have seen things I haven't or you may have thoughts I haven't.
Moving jack into town makes a certain amount of sense to me. Obvs I would say I'm not mafia here but I can see why you'd say that. I can see why you'd say LC as well.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3340

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:05 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:55 pm If all the marks were fake then why would I bother using my gladiator ability? There is literally a card I win confirmed by the mods if the real mark is yeeted.
Makes no sense. Gladiator is basically a personal king me for those among us that are unyeetable. Marks be damned.
I can only use the gladiator role on the people I have marked.

The theory was that all of my marks are fake. If that was the case, why would I use my gladiator role for no reason and a higher chance of getting yeeted?
So Mark wolves, be townie, gladiate, profit.

But yeah, I don’t think the marks are just flat fake. That’s a bit silly.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3341

Post by Long Con »

I don't think wolf JPIC would want to put the spotlight on himself like this after the Day 3 yeet. It is more likely that town JPIC did this because it's his special power and he's not likely to get a lot more chances to use it.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3342

Post by tutuu »

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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3343

Post by Urist »

imagine keeping the entire decision of whom to axe behind closed doors so that scum can just lurk all day
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3344

Post by Epignosis »

Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:07 pm imagine keeping the entire decision of whom to axe behind closed doors so that scum can just lurk all day
You could have posted more. :grin:
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3345

Post by hollowkatt »

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3346

Post by Urist »

Epignosis wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:08 pm
Urist wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:07 pm imagine keeping the entire decision of whom to axe behind closed doors so that scum can just lurk all day
You could have posted more. :grin:
Pretty sure I have the highest postcount today.
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3347

Post by Sloonei »

you guys wanna hear my hand farts?
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3348

Post by Epignosis »

I approach things not just as a player but as a game designer.

So the first question given this morning's mana a mana clash (I'm so clever XD ) for me is this: "Would a mafioso use an ability to make himself the only other name on the poll?"

The answer to that is "Hell no unless you crazy."

The second question I ask is, "Would I as a game designer give mafia an ability to transform the poll from anybody can die to 'Mafia has a 50% chance of death?'"

The answer to that is "Hell no I ain't crazy."

The third question I ask is, "Would a mafia member whose faction has this in hand use this ability?"

See the answer to number one.

I'm gradually gaining the perspective that this is all going to be a cautionary tale of "Just because you can don't mean you should."

The reverse lynch mechanic was almost certainly going to work against civilians.

This lynch mechanic may very well work against civilians.

JPIC has essentially forced our hands into choosing between them, which means if we agree with the answers to the questions above, we have no choice but to accept JPIC's decision on the matter.

Just because you can doesn't mean you should.

On the other hand, silencing is a pro-Mafia mechanic in almost every scenario, and I'm not altogether sure I buy the "There's a secret benefit to it." I don't even make civilian silencers anymore.

The fact is we've been dealt two names to choose from, and one of them is someone whose skill set doesn't make much sense coming from a mafia member. The other one does.

And at the end of the day, if we lose, I get to blame JPIC. :meany:

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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3349

Post by hollowkatt »

Epignosis wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:23 pm I approach things not just as a player but as a game designer.

So the first question given this morning's mana a mana clash (I'm so clever XD ) for me is this: "Would a mafioso use an ability to make himself the only other name on the poll?"

The answer to that is "Hell no unless you crazy."

The second question I ask is, "Would I as a game designer give mafia an ability to transform the poll from anybody can die to 'Mafia has a 50% chance of death?'"

The answer to that is "Hell no I ain't crazy."

The third question I ask is, "Would a mafia member whose faction has this in hand use this ability?"

See the answer to number one.

I'm gradually gaining the perspective that this is all going to be a cautionary tale of "Just because you can don't mean you should."

The reverse lynch mechanic was almost certainly going to work against civilians.

This lynch mechanic may very well work against civilians.

JPIC has essentially forced our hands into choosing between them, which means if we agree with the answers to the questions above, we have no choice but to accept JPIC's decision on the matter.

Just because you can doesn't mean you should.

On the other hand, silencing is a pro-Mafia mechanic in almost every scenario, and I'm not altogether sure I buy the "There's a secret benefit to it." I don't even make civilian silencers anymore.

The fact is we've been dealt two names to choose from, and one of them is someone whose skill set doesn't make much sense coming from a mafia member. The other one does.

And at the end of the day, if we lose, I get to blame JPIC. :meany:

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine
mana clash:
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oiiii oiii oiiii
soft fluffy paws
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Re: Magic the Gathering Mafia - Day 4

#3350

Post by Urist »

Epignosis wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:23 pm I approach things not just as a player but as a game designer.

So the first question given this morning's mana a mana clash (I'm so clever XD ) for me is this: "Would a mafioso use an ability to make himself the only other name on the poll?"

The answer to that is "Hell no unless you crazy."

The second question I ask is, "Would I as a game designer give mafia an ability to transform the poll from anybody can die to 'Mafia has a 50% chance of death?'"

The answer to that is "Hell no I ain't crazy."

The third question I ask is, "Would a mafia member whose faction has this in hand use this ability?"

See the answer to number one.

I'm gradually gaining the perspective that this is all going to be a cautionary tale of "Just because you can don't mean you should."

The reverse lynch mechanic was almost certainly going to work against civilians.

This lynch mechanic may very well work against civilians.

JPIC has essentially forced our hands into choosing between them, which means if we agree with the answers to the questions above, we have no choice but to accept JPIC's decision on the matter.

Just because you can doesn't mean you should.

On the other hand, silencing is a pro-Mafia mechanic in almost every scenario, and I'm not altogether sure I buy the "There's a secret benefit to it." I don't even make civilian silencers anymore.

The fact is we've been dealt two names to choose from, and one of them is someone whose skill set doesn't make much sense coming from a mafia member. The other one does.

And at the end of the day, if we lose, I get to blame JPIC. :meany:

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine
If scumJpic ends the game with a free kill tonight I'm saving this as copypasta
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