Buckets: War of the GOATs [END]

[Vulgard]

ah, makes sense

well i will say the games that illario has read me the most uncharitably have been his scum games historically. if i were him i wouldn't take the approach toward me right out of the gate as wolf so i'm a bit hesitant to call him scum, in my gut i actually feel he may be town because i kept expecting him to not townread me immediately in a game (and he doesn't always but he never has outed a SR me on this except when he was scum), and i feel like i'm approaching this game similarly as i would as wolf so i could see it, but in addition to what brad's saying i can't townread him yet

The continued self-awareness is killing me, but I'm starting to think it's a personality thing and not AI.

[ilario]

The interesting thing is, if I were to take alexa and LC as town that means the wolves had almost no presence the entire start of the game and have just been relying on town to self implode

[Vulgard]

My own slot would probably be my biggest wolfread right now for posting a meh opener and then dipping entirely, I'm not at all surprised it's been in contention for three days.

Yes, I know me saying this isn't helping.

[TonyStarkPrime]

vul: not bussing

good to know

[TonyStarkPrime]

The interesting thing is, if I were to take alexa and LC as town that means the wolves had almost no presence the entire start of the game and have just been relying on town to self implode

they're doin a great job

[TonyStarkPrime]

i have a secret read for tomorrow

[TonyStarkPrime]

would like vul to post another 100 or so times

[Vulgard]

#177 villagery from Nanook again.

#180 thanks, Nanook.

#191 I don't think any of the wolfreads on her were expectation-related, though? Esooa's was, kind of, but alexa townread Esooa for that approach, so I don't know where this is coming from.

#194 I think illario is locktown off that post and I don't see myself re-evaluating this for a while. The perspective and thoughts in this post are too complex to fake.

mac town

I can’t figure out how to multiquote from my phone but pretend I quoted this quote and also you calling wiml town and then Mac wolf

And my response is .... are you going to explain anything?

This was the quote btw
looking back It’s not as bad as I initially remembered, but at the time I felt like your response was very sassy here in a way that didn’t align with the tone from the rest of your posts where you seemed more relaxed and jovial. It just felt out of place at the time. In the context of you being annoyed by building pressure, then I suppose I can imagine why you would feel this way? But yeah at the time I wasn’t even aware you were being voted. Also you tend to give lots of snap reads like essoa did just there so I wasn’t getting why you were so bothered when someone else had done it.

The other thing I didn’t like was when you were saying that brad was reading you better than me. I mean that could be true, but It felt like you were trying to guilt trip (?) me into changing my read on you at the time. That’s what I meant when I said ur reaction felt preemptive since it was only 3 pages in and I made the read after a very quick 5 minute skim, so imo it shouldn’t be that much weigh so ur reaction to it confused me. That and the fact that you know that I tend to change my reads a LOT throughout the game.

Especially the bolded parts are super villagery because of their perspective.

due to my ridiculously high scum flip ratio idek if i've played as town with either ilario or alexa so this would be my first time sorting them in a forum setting lol

i've specced games w/ both of them as scum and they usually make it p deep if not endgame

I've explained 1 thing about her meta, when she's going to certain people (Illario, Esooa to an extent this game) trying to get them to townread her it's typically in her town meta. She works extremely hard on getting townread early and then solves. People have called it LAMIST but that's just what she does.

She'll use her vote multiple times but it's gonna be hard to track with this site. She's been verbally saying her votes though so basically treat it like EM forum games.

There's a few other things. Like, I've found her as town quickly in numerous games. She's not a hard town to find.

That explains a bit, it's NAI for Lime Coke though because I assume this player has experience with her. Unless the entire thing is a lie, but several players here should be able to call that out if it were so, and I don't think anyone did? I assume people would be talking about this if they did.

I'm starting to notice a pattern of focusing on meta assessments and seemingly disregarding everything else. Lime Coke's entire earlygame is filled with metareads on other players and discussions about How These Player Treat Each Other In Games and it doesn't feel like it's going anywhere. Or maybe I'm just getting tired of it because I'm not sure where half these reads come from (I have little to no past experience to draw from).

I think illario's villagery despite that and I still townread Nanook for bad reasons. Alexa is realistically null but I still feel like she could be a wolf atp. Lime Coke is... well, I want to say they're town, but they're probably a top scumread within this playerlist for a reason. I think their posts early on have been fine, but the complete zeroing-in on meta and the people they know feels more like they're trying to participate in existing discourse rather than bring independent ideas to the table. That's the opposite of what alexa's doing, since alexa had outed like six different reads by then, some already with progression. By far the solviest player on the opening pages.

My alexa wolfread may just be paranoia. It's not like her posts are bad when I look past the self-awareness and overreactions (which are like 90% personality-indicative and not alignment-indicative anyway). That said, I'm still not confident enough to call her town.

[Vulgard]

would like vul to post another 100 or so times

I'm not a hyperposter, so you probably won't get 100.

[TonyStarkPrime]

You got 36 houes

[Vulgard]

Hard townread Transcend

Agree lol.

My town read on Wiml is because he's a lot more casual than I'd think he would be as a wolf

Not very sure on this one though, but this post is the best example

I'd expect him to be more a more proactive wolf, basically

Why? There's zero pressure at this phase in the game, wolves don't have any incentive to act.

Agree. I don't think that's wolfy from Esooa but I do think she should know better, if that makes sense.

LC has really done nothing particularly townie. I don't feel his obviousness spewing out of every orifice and I find LC to be a pretty easy read. People who have a strong read on LC are suspect.

There's this clash of what makes sense for LC's meta and what doesn't and I can't make sense of it. What is LC's meta, anyway? Do I know them? Some people are calling them a 1/10 wolf, while others like Alison are claiming LC's an obvious villager when they rand V (and that they aren't villagery here), yet there are also some townleans on the slot from people like Alexa. If LC's an obvious villager like, for example, nutella, shouldn't basically everyone who knows them be on the same page here?

townreading alison this early when she is known as the best wolf on the syndicate is sus

Hot take: this post is somewhat unlikely to have been written by someone who killed Alison night 1, unless something changed later in the day.

the strangest thing about transcend is that he said theres an oppurtunistic wolf voting in me/alexa and we're tvt, but i found alisons found to be the most scummy and shes his top tr.

More villagery nuance of thought from illario. At this point it's becoming consistent, and that's a great look. Moving illario further up the townlist.

i know this sounds scummy but i don't think alison's opening is townny at all and transcend's read on her is making me side-eye hard

Every post alexa writes looks like she's trying to preemptively prevent scumreads on her, like she's pandering to everyone who'd tried to read her so far and/or found her scummy. Her opener was an obvious joke regardless of alignment, but she's actually playing like this all the time and I'm not sure if it's a personality thing anymore. Also, I'm not even sure why she finds this take scummy (or rather, sees potential for it to be considered scummy)? I think it's a somewhat reasonable take, even though it's been proven wrong. Why would she think it's scummy? From a villager POV, she can be correct here, and then it's towny in hindsight, isn't it? This sounds like she already knows she's tying two villagers together.

Alison being the n1 kill does still make alexa less likely to be mafia, but in all fairness, she couldn't push Alison off Transcend's day 1 V flip anyway - because that flip invalidates the read she made here.

I don't think I'm explaining myself very well, am I?

@Alison

Wait, legitimate question. Scoring out of 10, what is my wolf game?

2.

Yeah, exactly, you have like no reason to have any paranoia on me.

Lime Coke wants to have good rapport with everyone, but isn't making any actual reads outside of presenting meta analyses that several players in this game already know.

Seems like IIoA and trying to position themselves in the thread.

the strangest thing about transcend is that he said theres an oppurtunistic wolf voting in me/alexa and we're tvt, but i found alisons found to be the most scummy and shes his top tr.

is matt rly a wolf every time we see him LMAO

in retrospect matt's whole "i am town against illario and alexa for the first time" schtick may have been performative

I really hate this rapid read switch. It feels like alexa took advantage of illario's take to shove Transcend into the PoE.

And she immediately finds an additional reason to scumread Transcend as soon as a villager starts suspecting the slot, thus adding fuel to the fire and potentially contributing to what happened later (the d1 misyeet).

That's wolfy.

i agree that obviousness has not spewed out of every orifice of Lime Coke

but i still townread him

And this looks pockety toward Lime Coke, defending them from Alison, who is also the night 1 kill.
Pockety or partnery, idk actually. If Alison's right and Lime Coke should be much townier than this, and if Lime Coke's W, then I could see this being partnery, especially since alexa is supposed to have plenty of experience with LC. There's this weird mismatch between what alexa seems to think about LC's meta and what Alison seems to think, and since Alison's the night 1 kill alexa defended LC from here... yeah.

alexa why tf r u planting seeds of doubt on me

Exactly. This progression reads like "don't look at Lime Coke for (whatever reason), Transcend might be a wolf instead, illario said so too."

Transcend was V.
Illario is V, I'm very confident about this.
Lime Coke can be W.

I think that speaks for itself.

I also agree LC hasn't locked himself town.

But if he hasn't locked himself town by d2/d3 that's when I'll flip. Not going to total him for half a day of not being obv

this feels like a villagery thought as well

How? The last part is slightly villagery, but not really something I'd say a wolf couldn't write. It's wolfer if LC's W, but nothing significant.

[ilario]

Vulguard did you read anything from today before u started reading from scratch?

[Vulgard]

Alison's read on illario (the "uncomfortable" thing) is as ??? to me as it seems to be to illario himself and I think illario's reaction is a good look for him.

I'll just call you illario because I'm more used to it, illlllllllllllllllllllllllllario.

[Vulgard]

Vulguard did you read anything from today before u started reading from scratch?

Nothing.
I figured I should start the same way everyone else did, from page 1.
Should I not?

[Vulgard]

I honestly don't think I'll ever catch up, but I do want to have some semblance of knowledge about the happenings of this game, so I'm trying to get them by backreading a bit.

[ilario]

Vulguard did you read anything from today before u started reading from scratch?

Nothing.
I figured I should start the same way everyone else did, from page 1.
Should I not?

Yuppp u should

Though if u said yes I probably woulda trd for it for a specific reason

[ilario]

Woulda trd u for it *

[Vulgard]

I mean, I'm reading the posts in real-time as well, so technically I did read something from today?

This is also why I asked if I was the default yeet today, because if the answer is yes, then I'm not going to bother. Backreading a game as large as this and trying to solve it, only to get yeeted regardless and have my legacy likely forgotten, isn't the most productive use of my time.

[Vulgard]

I haven't said anything about TSP or Ender yet because they are hard null to me.

[ilario]

Nah I’d say today’s yeet is far from settled, especially if yesterday was anything to go by. The best thing we need rn is a fresh pair of competent eyes like yours to give us new insight

[ilario]

So yeah I’d say keep doing what ur doing tbh

[Vulgard]

I mean, I'm reading the posts in real-time as well, so technically I did read something from today?

This is also why I asked if I was the default yeet today, because if the answer is yes, then I'm not going to bother. Backreading a game as large as this and trying to solve it, only to get yeeted regardless and have my legacy likely forgotten, isn't the most productive use of my time.

I totally don't hold this opinion because of what happened to Esooa in DragonVale over on MU.

[Vulgard]

Who was killed N2? The OP doesn't have it.

[Vulgard]

i hate day 1 so bad

Transcend died consumed by hatred.

F.

[Vulgard]

So yeah I’d say keep doing what ur doing tbh

Are you having fun reading this or? Any opinions?

I understand I'm super behind, but the complete lack of engagement with what I've posted so far is a bit weird. I'd expect people to read my slot off it, or argue against it / support it or literally anything else, but instead it's been radio silence with a "LC is probably getting yeeted today if not you" thrown in. How has the gamestate stagnated so much in a 105-post game?

[Vulgard]

105-page, I meant. 106 now.

I don't mind talking to myself, being in an European timezone tends to cause that in FM, but I find it weird how like 3 people have seen me post and none had anything to say.

[Vulgard]

hedging, another buzzword.

let me save you the time, you should probably accuse me of omgus, fencesitting and i think by that time you would have exhausted every generic read in the book lol.

Not a buzzword. Every opinion you stated in the quoted post was qualified.

my very first post in the game was 4 reads. was that hedgey?

No, which was why I didn't call it hedgey. I called another of your posts hedgey.

lmaooo

so why is it unreasonble for me to have a hedgey opinion 10 pages into the game? like if all my posts are hedgey then sure. if i knew everyones alignment for sure 10 pages into mafia id have gotten bored of this game a very long time ago.

fwiw in a world ur town, which im starting to think you MIGHT be, i used to play just like you. coming straight into the game tunneling reads from page 1. ive veered away from it because its bad for thread health and all you achieve is that you put the entire focus on two slots and give everyone else a pass to slide under the radar in a world where we're tvt. all you've achieved is hinder both our processes in evaluating other slots because we've been so focussed in a circular argument that seems to be based on a difference of perspective more than anything else.

Incredibly good post. No bad faith, no agenda, no opportunism, no OMGUS, actual evaluation of alignment while preaching a point I agree with and find villagery to preach in this situation.

I'm not reading illario anymore, I'm going to treat him like a flipped villager until LyLo.

[Vulgard]

105-page, I meant. 106 now.

I don't mind talking to myself, being in an European timezone tends to cause that in FM, but I find it weird how like 3 people have seen me post and none had anything to say.

I feel like I'm out of the loop on something and not just the posts in this game.

[ilario]

So yeah I’d say keep doing what ur doing tbh

Are you having fun reading this or? Any opinions?

I understand I'm super behind, but the complete lack of engagement with what I've posted so far is a bit weird. I'd expect people to read my slot off it, or argue against it / support it or literally anything else, but instead it's been radio silence with a "LC is probably getting yeeted today if not you" thrown in. How has the gamestate stagnated so much in a 105-post game?

yes LOL im refreshing every time i get a notification on my tab

[ilario]

As far as opinions go I’ll hold to them for now since I don’t want to influence ur reads or anything

[ilario]

Well tbf 4 very vocal slots aren’t present anymore due to nks/yeets.

[ilario]

So that could explain the radio silence. Might also be because wagons are tvt, sometimes radio silence implies that too, but hmmmm I’ll have to think if that’s the case

[ilario]

I mean the people townreading me confidently are Alexa, who I've stated we've been t/t around 10 games by now, and Illario, which pinged me but if he's actually town this game then holy shit we've made progress. Both are from my homesite and have played with me numerous times.

I believe the others were Ender and Mac? I haven't seen their reasoning but they are the ones that have played only 1 or 2 games with me. Ender I'm confident is town as I've stated before, Mac I gotta see what's going on the later the game goes.

what maade u so confident on ender atp?

[ilario]

Anyways I’m gonna stick in my town meta and dip

town: alison, doggo, tony

poe: rest

mafia is an easy game guys

.....what?

lc and tsp prubs not w/w

[ilario]

Who was killed N2? The OP doesn't have it.

esooa was

[Vulgard]

Starting to think I might've given Nanook too much credit for his early posting, but I still think he's a bit above null regardless.

What's the post cap in this game per day?

Genuinely find this post wolfy because asking about the postcap feels like "how many times do I have to post." Might be a dumb read but idk.

lol ill take your word for it

talk me through your reads on everyone else atm

I think Alexa is townie. EnderWiggin is null which might actually be concerning because he usually makes a big splash when he is town. I have been on board with Esooa and Nanook's reads of Mac and I don't think he's a target they would try to either misexe or bus if they were scum which means they are most likely town. LC as explained is self resolving. I think Transcend is slightly scummy because I don't understand any of his reads, but he seems committed to towncoring me which means he will dig himself into a whole if he is scum attempting a pocket.

Might have found the post she was nightkilled for?

Ender's posts are all very meh and unmemorable so far, thinking at this point it's getting outright wolfy. He has existed, he just hasn't done anything.

[ilario]

hedging, another buzzword.

let me save you the time, you should probably accuse me of omgus, fencesitting and i think by that time you would have exhausted every generic read in the book lol.

Not a buzzword. Every opinion you stated in the quoted post was qualified.

my very first post in the game was 4 reads. was that hedgey?

No, which was why I didn't call it hedgey. I called another of your posts hedgey.

lmaooo

so why is it unreasonble for me to have a hedgey opinion 10 pages into the game? like if all my posts are hedgey then sure. if i knew everyones alignment for sure 10 pages into mafia id have gotten bored of this game a very long time ago.

fwiw in a world ur town, which im starting to think you MIGHT be, i used to play just like you. coming straight into the game tunneling reads from page 1. ive veered away from it because its bad for thread health and all you achieve is that you put the entire focus on two slots and give everyone else a pass to slide under the radar in a world where we're tvt. all you've achieved is hinder both our processes in evaluating other slots because we've been so focussed in a circular argument that seems to be based on a difference of perspective more than anything else.

Incredibly good post. No bad faith, no agenda, no opportunism, no OMGUS, actual evaluation of alignment while preaching a point I agree with and find villagery to preach in this situation.

I'm not reading illario anymore, I'm going to treat him like a flipped villager until LyLo.

LOL i just saw this, normally it be wary of posts like this but this feels wayyyy to blatant for a pocket.

[Vulgard]

Currently in Esooa/Wiml/TSP/Nanook right now.

Pending stuff from Wiml.

This actually isn't terrible.

can we yeet illario for making his name ilario and not illario cuz thats annoying the shit out of me

lol ill take your word for it

talk me through your reads on everyone else atm

I think Alexa is townie. EnderWiggin is null which might actually be concerning because he usually makes a big splash when he is town. I have been on board with Esooa and Nanook's reads of Mac and I don't think he's a target they would try to either misexe or bus if they were scum which means they are most likely town. LC as explained is self resolving. I think Transcend is slightly scummy because I don't understand any of his reads, but he seems committed to towncoring me which means he will dig himself into a whole if he is scum attempting a pocket.

ok this kinda sucks

but may still be town

particularly this

oh maybe i spoke too soon

It's a good read. If Mac is scummy and people call him out as scum, they are likely to be town.

Is there a deadline to this? If I call Mac mafia too late do I get no towncred?

Why does Coke want towncred from someone when they don't know that person's alignment? It really reads like appeasing a villager. I know this was a joke, but.

In other words.

Yo Lime Coke

I feel like this might have been a joke post

But also i feel like there's some truth behind every joke and I just got pinged by this

So can you tell me the rationale behind this post?

[Vulgard]

anyways im going to bed

VVV: Alison, Ilario, LimeCoke
VV: Transcend, EnderWiggin
~
everyone else
W: Mac

Alexa's progression on many of these reads is odd to me.

With Alison, she first makes a preflip read regarding her, that if she flips wolf, Transcend is also a wolf for writing her off as town without evaluating her take (her words). She also finds Alison's opener meh at best. Then she calls Alison villagery with no explanation. And here she is in the top town territory.

With Transcend, she talks about him a lot, but suspects him a lot early on and votes him. Wolfreads him and calls his remarks bad several times. Then calls him towny when I didn't think she considered him towny whatsoever judging by the content of her previous posts about him. And here he is in the townreads.

With illario, she at least has a fairly consistent townread there. Apparently she also townreads Alison off her interaction with illario being V/V? Which is also unexplained, but whatever.

With ender, she randomly calls one of his thoughts villagery and slots him into the townreads. That's... pretty much it.

And Lime Coke is this meta mess.

I don't even find any of this particularly wolfy; I'm just confused, because the thought processes behind several reads on this list make no sense to me. If she's genuinely solving the game, I can't follow her process whatsoever. But at the same time, much of this feels too random and all over the place to come from a wolf. Messy vs structured. She'd have to be powerwolfing to play like this, and none of her posts have looked like agenda, barring her brief push on Transcend that she ended up walking away from anyway.

Alexa might just be town here. Maybe.

[Vulgard]

I also feel like Mac became a consensus wolfread too quickly, and wolves probably piggybacked off that suspicion, especially once they saw villagers stoke the fire (off the top of my head, Alison definitely thought Mac was a wolf and so did Esooa, both killed n1 and n2 respectively). Alexa having Mac as W here looks like it largely follows the thread consensus rather than being independent and idk how I feel about her only wolfread being a sponge of the thread when she's normally had independent (if untrackable) thought processes.

[Vulgard]

You can probably tell my alexa read is all over the place and I hope she just gets nightkilled so I won't have to deal with it.

[Vulgard]

I don't expect to post much more today, I have somewhat limited time. But so far I have this.

illario

Nanook - Slightly more V pings than TSP, I liked his opening in particular mindset-wise, but he hasn't done anything since that I found villagery.
tsp - I have one mild V ping from him and that's how he reacted to my posting in the moment when I subbed in. I felt like he took the initiative and spoke to me almost like a "town leader" and this is the playstyle I associate with v!TSP, not w!TSP. I've never seen him play the leader role as a wolf before, even though it's probably not that difficult to fake. This is kind of a difficult read to explain and I'm not even super confident in it, but it's enough to put him a bit higher than others. Caveat being that I've barely seen him do anything in the earlygame, but he wasn't wolfy there either (at least not so far judging by what I've read), only null. Null is better than wolfy and I think the players below him on this list have been wolfy on some occasions.

alexa
EnderWiggin
Lime Coke

Ender is here because he simply hasn't been villagery while others have. That's it, I don't have anything else to say on the slot. I guess their PoE on day 1 that I saw looked alright composition-wise, but since all the players in it have conveniently been left alive, it's possible Ender's been making the nightkills to play into their worldview and get enough misyeets. This is tinfoilish, but it is a thought that I had.

Alexa/Lime Coke is a weird case, because I think they both have scum equity for completely different reasons. However, Lime Coke is a bit lower because he simply hasn't been solving at all, while alexa has been. I think alexa's treatment of Lime Coke has been pretty odd and they do have some partner equity, but it's also possible that one attempted to pocket / appease the other. I honestly can't tell which one is happening through this meta mess, but I do think the duo contains at least one wolf, and I'm currently leaning toward Lime Coke W - because alexa seems to have solving the game in mind, while Lime Coke hasn't really shown a solving mindset. I thought about putting alexa higher, but I don't feel comfortable doing so rn.

My literal only confident townread on this list so far is illario, and that probably doesn't bode well. I don't like having such a broad POE, I need to start taking people out of it. The good thing is that my read on Lime Coke seems to align with the thread consensus? But if Lime Coke flips V then lolconsensus. Not really seeing the villager in him rn, but it could happen.

Thinking Ender hasn't been talked about at all and probably should be, considering I haven't seen anything villagery from him, and his PoE is conveniently all alive atp for him to push on. I don't know what he did past page 10, but the first 10 pages were super uninspiring.

[ilario]

U townreading me so hard kinda ruins my plan I had at the time of ur sub LOL

[Vulgard]

Leaving my vote on LC for now because of threadstate reasoning (what TSP told me earlier) and because I can't say he's a villager based on what I've read from him so far. I've lowered the bar significantly after not seeing many people strike me as super villagery (other than illario) and still, very few people cleared it. Those few people didn't include him. Plus, it looks like he's been appeasing to flipped villager Alison and most of his early contributions surround the metareading circlejerk without making actual alignment reads that don't depend on meta everybody knows. This is problematic because it lets him talk about the game and make "alignment reads" without having to show independent thought. Adhering to predetermined meta he could adhere to regardless of alignment does not make him a villager.

[Vulgard]

U townreading me so hard kinda ruins my plan I had at the time of ur sub LOL

Your plan was to misyeet me on day 3 like in DragonVale, wasn't it?

[ilario]

Day 3 in dragonvale never happened tbhhh

[Vulgard]

I saw my previous slot holder had been voting TSP, for what I imagine was a decent reason at least (I respect Wiml as a player) but I'm not really feeling it rn. Might reconsider once I've read more from him.

[Vulgard]

Day 3 in dragonvale never happened tbhhh

You talking about a "plan for my sub" really does sound like you planning to make me relive that, though

[ilario]

LOL well I had a pretty solid tr on ur slot already that I was Downplaying to see who would push ur slot throughout the day

But I don’t want u to relive that LOL so imma just be straight up and say I think ur slot is most likely always town and that’s why I wanted u to just focus on reading instead of defending yourself when you came in

[ilario]

I’ve just been looking for one other tr other than u and Alexa rhat i can feel comfortable in to lock the game. I’ve been trying different names to see which fits best.

I am leaning on someone that I referred to earlier in the day but yeah I’d rather u not see that and start to let my read shape ur reads