Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 7]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I feel less good about Daisy after yesterday. I guess I just never want to have just one person in the PoE, and now that wilgy and falcon are down and I still dont wanna kill Urist, there she goes. Also she threw some weird poop at me for my ISOs yesterday, like she didn't really read them but wanted to test if she could make me die for it. Dunno though, being wrong isn't synonimous with being bad.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I dunno how to read Creature, sometimes I really like him, sometimes I think he's pocketing me, and there's the awful interaction with Guillo.

[Creature]

If I were the shooter I'd be tempted to speed run the game

Sig -> Creature -> Spacedaisy -> Dizzy -> Guillotine

I wonder if NAA was killed for having two wolves on his list. Of course that also applies to me, but it's still interesting to note.

[Creature]

I dunno how to read Creature, sometimes I really like him, sometimes I think he's pocketing me, and there's the awful interaction with Guillo.

I dunno how to clear myself other than pointing out I must have suddenly decided to bus my two wolf partners in LyLo and my partners decided to bus me when we could have easily coordinated into persuading NANOOK to kill town (especially DrWilgy or Urist). Sadly I don't have any recent completed wolf game to be used as a reference so you'll have to trust me.

Also, what was the awful interaction I had with Guillo? I remember coming into terms they must be wolf at the start of day 4 because of their reads suddenly being mostly on town after the Michelle flip and then just staying there untouched.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Shouldn't we claim the last 2 nights

I mean what else do we have to lose now

No

[Creature]

Meh. I'm coming at this right now:

[VOTE: Spacedaisy] aubergine

Unless someone thinks DDL faked that interaction with falcon and Dyslexicon is wrong about their godread or Urist decided to hardbus Guillotine.

[Spacedaisy]

I’m town folks.

DDL, you made a list but even the people you supposedly removed from the list in your posts you shaded them. It looked bad to me.

I wasn’t trying to get your killed DDL, I have literally zero power.

I don’t think it’s Creature, but I don’t know. I got back a couple hours ago and I have a headache again so I’m feeding my cats and going to bed.

I think it’s probably between Urist and DDL imo.

Falcon and Guillotine both came at me at different times. They have both voted for me. Take that as you will, also I was coming for Falcon when Guillo talked me off of him.

My interaction with Guillo was pocketed town talking to a wolf who had her fooled.

That’s all I’ve got tonight. I won’t have much time tomorrow either as I’ve got to work all day to pay the bills again. Travel took up two whole days I could have been working. I’ll be back tomorrow, but don’t expect ISOs because I don’t have the time for it.

[Urist]

don't use the table, just protect nanook tonight if you have a shot left.

[Urist]

i would shoot creature just based on the reads of dead / confirmed town.

[Urist]

also i probably don't have to spell this out but you should probably treat this as lylo nanook lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yeah lol

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I dunno how to read Creature, sometimes I really like him, sometimes I think he's pocketing me, and there's the awful interaction with Guillo.

I dunno how to clear myself other than pointing out I must have suddenly decided to bus my two wolf partners in LyLo and my partners decided to bus me when we could have easily coordinated into persuading NANOOK to kill town (especially DrWilgy or Urist). Sadly I don't have any recent completed wolf game to be used as a reference so you'll have to trust me.

Also, what was the awful interaction I had with Guillo? I remember coming into terms they must be wolf at the start of day 4 because of their reads suddenly being mostly on town after the Michelle flip and then just staying there untouched.

Read my big post etc.

Guillo really wanted us to think he suspected you but he always moved to someone else after a while.

[Creature]

I don't really know what was Guillo doing with me and whether he was planning to mislynch me later or make me look bad after he flipped.

My progression on Guillotine is roughly like this: I initially townread him for his backlash against NANOOK D1, then him pushing Michelle EOD1 (though I still considered him a good wolf player and hence why I said it could be a bus) and then most out of fear of his backlash if I pushed him. Somewhere D3, Guillotine pushed hollowkatt and made a case on Dyslexicon, both turned to be town. So I started reconsidering Guillotine and saw he was staying under the radar and mostly only pushed town after D1. Among the list of seven pandas, his name struck my attention the most.

[Creature]

I believe if one side sounds more natural and the other side sounds pretty forced, it's most likely a sign it's a v/w. Like, falcon's push on me at the start of day 4 was very forced, but it wouldn't necessarily be a bus, especially considering I was a lot more natural with my responses.

Guillotine still gives me the air he was mostly going with the waves and saving up some cases to be used if the moment was good, like his cases on hollowkatt and Dyslexicon. If you apply the logic that Guillo had me as their wolfread but barely pushed me until day 4, you will also have to apply that to Urist, who was pushing Guillotine for longer yet was mostly dismissed by Guillo.

[Creature]

i would shoot creature just based on the reads of dead / confirmed town.

Marmot was townreading Guillo and townleaning falcon. Even if Marmot had one wolf in their POE, that'd still make them a bad target for a nightkill if wolves were looking to take out someone on them. I believe Marmot was killed mostly for being a vocal player and also widely townread rather than for their reads.

NotAnAxehole could perhaps have been killed for their reads and hence I could see that pointing towards Spacedaisy being wolf here. Still, just like Marmot, NotAnAxehole was also a vocal and widely townread player that wolves would want to get rid of.

If you apply the logic of "wolves were killing players with better reads", then there's fingersplints wolfreading DDL and there's Dyslexicon townreading both DDL and me. So which it is?

[Creature]

also i probably don't have to spell this out but you should probably treat this as lylo nanook lol

I think we should have some doctor shot left. Still, would rather end the game today because I hate LyLo pressure.

[Creature]

I’m town folks.

DDL, you made a list but even the people you supposedly removed from the list in your posts you shaded them. It looked bad to me.

I wasn’t trying to get your killed DDL, I have literally zero power.

I don’t think it’s Creature, but I don’t know. I got back a couple hours ago and I have a headache again so I’m feeding my cats and going to bed.

I think it’s probably between Urist and DDL imo.

Falcon and Guillotine both came at me at different times. They have both voted for me. Take that as you will, also I was coming for Falcon when Guillo talked me off of him.

My interaction with Guillo was pocketed town talking to a wolf who had her fooled.

That’s all I’ve got tonight. I won’t have much time tomorrow either as I’ve got to work all day to pay the bills again. Travel took up two whole days I could have been working. I’ll be back tomorrow, but don’t expect ISOs because I don’t have the time for it.

This somewhat makes sense.

Spacedaisy's defense of Guillotine still strikes me as misinformed town. I don't really know Spacedaisy's wolf range though.

[Spacedaisy]

I can’t win with this headache, it just will not stop.

I’m going to look at the votes actually cast in the last poll because something DDL said was interesting to me. During that day Nook said that he would shoot whoever had the most votes. That’s the day Guillo tried to get me to vote Urist with him or Creature with him and DDL instead of voting Falcon. But did he ever actually move his vote to Creature after I did?

[Spacedaisy]

Are there no saved polls? Meh, never mind that train of thought.

[Creature]

Day 4 vote

Spoiler: show

get rid of the trash before the trash gets rid of you....
Poll runs till Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Creature
4
24%
Voters: DrWilgy, Dragon D. Luffy, Spacedaisy, Guillotine
Dragon D. Luffy
0
No votes
Voters: None
DrWilgy
1
6%
Voters: falcon45ca
falcon
0
No votes
Voters: None
Guillotine
2
12%
Voters: Creature, Urist
Spacedaisy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Urist
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
1
6%
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
host/mods/dead/spec
9
53%
Voters: MacDougall, sabie12, nutella, Marmot, juliets, Scotty, hollowkatt, Syn, dunya
Total votes: 17

Final vote polls are saved in dunya's ISO. This is for day 4.

[Spacedaisy]

Thanks. I looked at her post but I didn’t see it in there. So he did move to Creature. I don’t think Creature is bad based on that, and the fact that he voted there on the day Nook said he was going to shoot the top vote earner. Plus, he was trying to sway me away from voting Falcon and onto Urist.

I’m back to DDL based on Guillo’s vote behavior on the day it might have mattered where we voted.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

-.-

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If this is wrong I blame you all

@dunya shoot ddl plz

[Creature]

I'll take the blame if it's wrong. I've been too lost to settle on a single candidate.

[dunya]

and just like that, the great red panda told all the giant pandas to shut up and stop talking.

he took out his big guns and he told them to line up, cos he was ready to shoot his shot and go to sleep for the night.

[dunya]

the website logged me out and i lost the fucking post. i hate this.

[dunya]

Red Panda tossed his coin and stared at the heads side...

the decision was made.

He called the giant pandas to capture DDL to banish him away from them



Poor DDL kept crying he was innocent, but the coin....Red Panda flipped it...and it never lied...


well, until now.

Poor DDL was so heartbroken at the false accusations that he decided to leave anyway and go and find Marmot and Dizzy so they could eat bamboo and be lazy together while watching all the anime his heart desires...so off he went



and boy were they glad to have another companion!!

DDL has left Syndicateville. He was a Giant Panda!


It is now night 6. You have under 22.5hours to send me night actions.

[dunya]

@Creature
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Spacedaisy
@Urist

[dunya]

D6 POLL:

Spoiler: show

who's the last trash panda???
Poll runs till Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Creature
1
9%
Voters: Dragon D. Luffy
Dragon D. Luffy
1
9%
Voters: Spacedaisy
Spacedaisy
1
9%
Voters: Creature
Urist
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
1
9%
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
sushi/mods/dead/spec
7
64%
Voters: Marmot, Scotty, hollowkatt, nutella, sabie12, Syn, dunya
Total votes: 11

[dunya]

red panda woke up feeling great about today. he sent a messenger and all the giant pandas said they'd come back if he got rid of the last trash panda!!

he felt good knowing no one had left overnight at least...

but what were they doing??? CHEWING FOOD WITHOUT A CARE IN THE WORLD???



red panda hissed and told them he's ready to slap them silly if they failed this mission of making themselves appear more panda like today! today was crucial. the end was near and he was so close to unmasking the last trash panda, he could feel it the tips of his little cute paws!!



no one died tonight!!!

it is now day 7 -- good luck!!

[Creature]

Welp this is just frustrating.

[Creature]

I think we should be claiming now as we really need to get this right today?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

In theory I could get another shot off but it doesn't seem likely

[Creature]

In theory I could get another shot off but it doesn't seem likely

The surviving giant panda would need to have one shot left and they'd only have 50% chance of saving the game. So yeah, today is pretty much LyLo.

[Creature]

I think you're better using your own judgement because I'm pretty lost here and the trash panda is within Space/Urist.

[Creature]

NAA and Marmot dying is a bit sad. They were the two players I trusted the most besides NANOOK.

I'm afraid DrWilgy is probably just town here.

On the other hand, now I'm unsure if I should be townreading DDL and Dyslexicon here. Guillotine is also an uncertainty.

I guess there is a lesson to be learned about finding an "optimal" mathematical solution that disregards the social aspect of the game and ignores that the game is designed with much higher winning odds for the mafia faction, which town can only overcome through social cohesion.

There should also have a mechanism solution that allows town to attempt to save other players besides the Red Panda. Like, the Marmot and NotAnAxehole kills were pretty predictable and someone could've saved them. I guess I might leave this discussion for postgame because I'm not sure how beneficial it is to talk about it right now.

The big things that do stick out in my head is the fact that Day Creature had 29 posts, of which 19 were mech discussion posts. Then at the end of the day he bemoaned that today was such a bust because all people talked about was mech and the wolves can hide in mech talk. Despite the fact that he was one of the driving forces of that conversation.

I agree I was part of it. I said wolves would most likely make mech talks because it's way easier than faking solving and I don't think that contradicts with myself being part of it. I was mostly pointing out that, despite me being part of it, wolves could very well be talking about mechanics.

I also recall feeling like when NAA and Marmot were took out, it was likely an opportunity for the wolves to try and come in and control conversation. I waited because I wanted to see who seemed to come charging in. The two who came in were Creature and DDL. Creature also came in with wall posts reads. I didn't care for the look, but not something by itself that was bad.

When I saw NAA and Marmot killed, I was first frustrated because they were such obvious favorite targets and they were killed right under eight doctor noses. I was surprised no one bothered to protect them. Also, the day starting at 7 v 3 with only one mislynch being available increased my sense of urgency to do the solving and get the game home before it was too late. You say wolves were going to take that opportunity to control thread conversation but a town can very well decide to step up after their two top townreads and most trustable players just dropped dead this cleanly.

I cannot fathom why anyone would have thought Dizzy bad. There is no world in which a wolf makes the post he did. It makes literally no sense to believe that he was wolf. Yet Creature and DDL were on him. It was beyond me, and the only reason I can see that someone would do it is because they would want to keep as many question marks out there as possible.

I was initially pushing Dyslexicon because their posts felt mostly empty, devoid of reads and I thought they were raising their postcount to look like they were doing something. I later changed my read on Dyslexicon when they came in and started making towny posts and showing no real care for how their posts looked like.

I was assigned to protect NANOOK N2 and hence why I was frustrated nobody who rolled no save bothered saving Marmot or NAA.

[Creature]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

[Creature]

Where I'm at right now


I do not want to shoot today: myself, DDL, Guillo

I do not want to shoot today, but would not complain if Nanook shot them: sig, Spacedaisy, falcon, hollowkatt, NAA

I would be ok with shooting today: Creature, Dizzy, DrWilgy, Urist

Let me level with you all, specially Nanook. I got the feeling Marmot got killed for this legacy and it's the very reason why I think Urist and Creature as scum

So yah this is my legacy. Obviously I'm not 100% confident cause HK and Dizzy's flipping town killed it for me and killed my WIM but I don't see a world where at least one of them is not scum.

So [VOTE: Urist] aubergine or [VOTE: Creature] aubergine

bye

i would shoot creature just based on the reads of dead / confirmed town.

Also, both Urist and Guillotine did the same shit of taking a dead town legacy as a case on me.

[Urist]

dizzy rolling in his grave at the ddl kill yesterday

[Urist]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

[Creature]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

tbh I think wolves were deliberately targetting NANOOK the last three nights considering we'd eventually run out of saves.

[Urist]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

tbh I think wolves were deliberately targetting NANOOK the last three nights considering we'd eventually run out of saves.

The first time we saw a no-kill was on night four. Everyone had at least one shot left so unless scum are really mechanically bad (i.e. Spacedaisy) I don't think they'd have shot at nanook n4.
The chances that shooting nanook would be a hit on n5 were vanishingly low as well.

The main vulnerability of the plan I made is that it leaves the giant pandas unprotected most of the time, especially on later nights where the odds of rolling a protect on nanook are very high. Your argument that I'm mafia exploiting knowledge of the setup makes no sense when it's clear that scum aren't playing optimally.

[Spacedaisy]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

Could you clarify what you mean here? How does that figure?

[Creature]

tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

tbh I think wolves were deliberately targetting NANOOK the last three nights considering we'd eventually run out of saves.

The first time we saw a no-kill was on night four. Everyone had at least one shot left so unless scum are really mechanically bad (i.e. Spacedaisy) I don't think they'd have shot at nanook n4.
The chances that shooting nanook would be a hit on n5 were vanishingly low as well.

The main vulnerability of the plan I made is that it leaves the giant pandas unprotected most of the time, especially on later nights where the odds of rolling a protect on nanook are very high. Your argument that I'm mafia exploiting knowledge of the setup makes no sense when it's clear that scum aren't playing optimally.

Two giant pandas dying N4 would've helped us a lot because then we'd start with 4 suspects instead of 6 suspects D5. Seems pretty clear to me the last wolf is avoiding giving narrowing down the POE by killing giant pandas, especially when we can't even settle on a single strong townread.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

dizzy rolling in his grave at the ddl kill yesterday

Yeah lol

But

[Creature]

dizzy rolling in his grave at the ddl kill yesterday

Yeah, I was frustrated we half-assed yesterday and got a half-assed kill. I think only Spacedaisy was on DDL, while I was pretty unsure where to go yesterday.

[Creature]

I'm now leaning towards the last panda being Spacedaisy.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tbf the votes were 1/1/1 with urist not voting iirc

I did my best

[Creature]

I confess I'm a bit eager to quickly end this game (hopefully in a town win). I feel like I'm having less and less time and this game is making me stress too much.