Anniversary Game 1 - Classic Syndicate [Day 9]

[Sloonei]

I’ve decided I won’t be voting for vivax.

This is a switch from where you’ve been. Is this switch triggered by you doing any form of specific thread reading?

Yes

[Vivax]

If I read P1 correctly, Sloonei is town, but also ‚special‘

[Vivax]

I think DF is a good vote for today, the only most likely to be mafia imo. But, have we cleared wilgy? I still think the last mafia is a low poster.

It's sloonei or vivax for me. I'dlike to hear form both of them why I should think they are civ. Golden's point on Sloonei are pretty damning. And I just can't shake the feeling that vivax is no good.

If I were mafia here I'd have to nightkill into Sloonei and you (Eloh), not Wilgy or Scotty. I don't know where you got the notion that the last mafia is a low poster. But the idea of yours disappeared after we got DF's flip. Maybe because he was the last one remaining (aside from you if we want to use that description)?

Sloonei early seems to have had his eye on Quin and G-Man off the bat and then on sig too. So either very early bussing or god reads in sig mafia world.
Sig mentioned the remaining mafia member's role on D1 so either he had the role and it influenced his posting, or it's just a coincidence that it stuck out to him that much.

It's hard today as it looks like everyone has something to them at this point that makes them valid guesses. I suspect Golden the least, still.

[Elohcin]

It's sloonei or vivax for me. I'dlike to hear form both of them why I should think they are civ. Golden's point on Sloonei are pretty damning. And I just can't shake the feeling that vivax is no good.

What damning points has goldwn raised against me?

I'm not the kind of mafia player to re-state everything someone else has said just to make more posts and the the thread longer.

He made many posts analyzing you and I think it is on you to look at them and defend your standing.

Please tell me why you aren't voting for vivax today as that has not been stated already.

[Elohcin]

also, @Sloonei nei, who would you vote for?

[Vivax]

I refuse to believe Sloonei is mafia here. The way he feels like he found something here looks too genuine and I don't think he comes in swinging at his teammates.

I think I'm ride or die sig and elo for last elims. Need to read more before making up my mind on which one to vote for today.

Bea‘s avi looks like a croupier kitty. Tone worries me a bit.

May move Sloonei to town for that certain ballsiness, but I suspect theirs is some lazy meta read from being used to seeing me post more energetically.

Have we met before this game?

I‘m not sure how you‘d conclude I was posting too safely, otherwise. Because it‘s an accurate way to read me sometimes.

If not, it won‘t matter after a while depending on which facet of insanity helps me make my posts at a given moment.

Interesting.

The safety read was just a general sense I came up with when looking at your posts. What makes you say it’s accurate?

[Elohcin]

I think DF is a good vote for today, the only most likely to be mafia imo. But, have we cleared wilgy? I still think the last mafia is a low poster.

It's sloonei or vivax for me. I'dlike to hear form both of them why I should think they are civ. Golden's point on Sloonei are pretty damning. And I just can't shake the feeling that vivax is no good.

If I were mafia here I'd have to nightkill into Sloonei and you (Eloh), not Wilgy or Scotty. I don't know where you got the notion that the last mafia is a low poster. But the idea of yours disappeared after we got DF's flip. Maybe because he was the last one remaining (aside from you if we want to use that description)?

Sloonei early seems to have had his eye on Quin and G-Man off the bat and then on sig too. So either very early bussing or god reads in sig mafia world.
Sig mentioned the remaining mafia member's role on D1 so either he had the role and it influenced his posting, or it's just a coincidence that it stuck out to him that much.

It's hard today as it looks like everyone has something to them at this point that makes them valid guesses. I suspect Golden the least, still.

Thank you for your response. I thought the mafia may be low posters bc G seemed to be frustrated like he was handling the mafia roles all on his own. Said low poster mafia could have stepped up their game as numbers dwindled.

If my memory serves be correctly, early bussing was common for mafia just for this reason. So people can look back into the early days and say, "oh, but he suspected so-and-so. They couldn't be teammates. I don't trust that. Mafia always used to throw names out early on, teamies or not, just so they had a seaming foundation to build a case on anyone. What are your thoughts on this?

[Vivax]

Though it likely will be sig because Eloh has a certain *thing* going on for herself from D1.

Eloh mentioned in her point c) of a D1 post that she expects mafia to have early super reads as a possibility, so I can see why she's still suspicious of Sloonei. I don't know why she trusts sig to be town, what if she even had a point very early into D1 before feeling like retracting the read ?

[Vivax]

I think DF is a good vote for today, the only most likely to be mafia imo. But, have we cleared wilgy? I still think the last mafia is a low poster.

It's sloonei or vivax for me. I'dlike to hear form both of them why I should think they are civ. Golden's point on Sloonei are pretty damning. And I just can't shake the feeling that vivax is no good.

If I were mafia here I'd have to nightkill into Sloonei and you (Eloh), not Wilgy or Scotty. I don't know where you got the notion that the last mafia is a low poster. But the idea of yours disappeared after we got DF's flip. Maybe because he was the last one remaining (aside from you if we want to use that description)?

Sloonei early seems to have had his eye on Quin and G-Man off the bat and then on sig too. So either very early bussing or god reads in sig mafia world.
Sig mentioned the remaining mafia member's role on D1 so either he had the role and it influenced his posting, or it's just a coincidence that it stuck out to him that much.

It's hard today as it looks like everyone has something to them at this point that makes them valid guesses. I suspect Golden the least, still.

Thank you for your response. I thought the mafia may be low posters bc G seemed to be frustrated like he was handling the mafia roles all on his own. Said low poster mafia could have stepped up their game as numbers dwindled.

If my memory serves be correctly, early bussing was common for mafia just for this reason. So people can look back into the early days and say, "oh, but he suspected so-and-so. They couldn't be teammates. I don't trust that. Mafia always used to throw names out early on, teamies or not, just so they had a seaming foundation to build a case on anyone. What are your thoughts on this?

You're welcome.
Judging by how the flipped mafias behaved, mostly avoiding to talk to much about each other, I doubt Sloonei would endanger his team like that. I'm generally of the opinion that bussing is never convenient. Town cred is too flimsy and short-lived when the options dwindle. Sloonei should know that too if he were mafia.

I have noticed that sig stepped up his activity on the day we limmed Michelle, so that would fit into your description of a mafia upping the anthe into lategame when they become more forced to act.

[Elohcin]

Good point about sig. I want to hear more from sloonei now. I still know that casually suspecting a teammate early on is/was a thing. It meant something to put their names out there. It provided a bit of distancing. You always wanted to mention every player in some capacity. Some of your teammates, you would civ-read, and some you would baddie-read. Keep people guessing. I should know, I used to be #2 for mafia wins once upon a time.

[Vivax]

These posts from around the phase where we limmed bea suggest sig held some extra info. Additionally, he's listing scenarios that don't aim at reaching any conclusion in the first post. In the second, he cleared DF under the assumption mafia will try to prevent their mates from not voting.
That should have been invalidated to him when we flipped Michelle, who was insanified on D2 iirc. Did Sig use the same rationale when we limmed DF? No. But that's to be expected even for a town.
Why did he clear DF but not Michelle for the same reason ? My guess would be that he avoided trying to clear teammates, but conf-bias alert on this.

Oh wait. Michelle voted Eloh on D1, was insanified on D2. Sig assumed nonvoting town got insanified.
He made that up to cover up that he was leaking info, of course he didn't pay attention to Michelle's actions while writing this not having a reason to look for mafia among his teammates.

Up next: Point 3 of his first post contains a sentence too much. Is it possible mafia forgot an action ? Sure. Where did the idea of them being punished for it come from ? They have 1-shot roles, which to an uninformed civ suggests the timing of the usage is free for them to choose as well as the usage overall.
So I believe that there's a rule that dictates mafia roles that can submit every night have to do so, and that sig was aware of it when he wrote this post.

Sig and Michelle were both insanified. For all we know that could have been Tangrowth's doing, or one or more hidden rules on how to post in this game (Minimum amount of posts? Minimum amount of words etc?)

Maybe there's other points I'm not seeing or thinking of but these feel like viable posts to pinpoint sig from and if you notice anything else, feel free to pile it on and choo-choo.

Spoiler: show

Also it’s interesting to note we haven’t seen any Non player votes yet, if that holds true we can only assume one of 3 things

1. the mafia role was blocked so that’ll be a interesting thing to keep in mind if a new case suddenly springs up

2. Some sort of protection shenanigans occurred and nobody is aware of it

3. Mafia forgot to submit an action. I can only assume if they forgot to submit some form of punishment will be present just like for those who forget to vote

11 players left 3 mafia.


We’re still in a good place thankfully. (Assuming Scotty isn’t mafia which I’d have assumed if he was vigged said vig would’ve been freaking out)

I’m leaning toward Michelle or Quin. Quin based off and Michelle is mainly gut.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned

Don't understand how being insaned clears DF for you

no

I thought people who missed votes were the ones who were insanified?

Not sure about that, and you aren't either, which is why this is off to me. Because it's worded as if sig's assuming that it only affects town, which is something town shouldn't know.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned

I’m operating under the assumption missed vote = insanified.

Even prior to Bea flip I was leaning toward anyway who was insanified day 2 is town and potentially day 3. I just think someone on mafia would’ve caught the rule hint and made sure everyone voted while if town didn’t closely read the rules they’d miss it.

This to me makes DF look much better since I’m thinking inactive towb.

[Vivax]

In simpler terms: He unwittingly summed up reasons that made Michelle obvious mafia to other mafia, but used them in reverse to clear DF instead.

Since Michelle voted but got insanified, sig should've been able to infer she was mafia from his own assumptions.
DF didn't vote and got insanified.

At first glance we had two insanified players on D2. One voted, one didn't. No visible grounds for any assumption that it's nonvoting that insanifies players.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[Vivax]

So what rule could Michelle have possibly broken ? Maybe there's something we don't know from the OP, like Dead Red being responsible for choosing the mafia factional kill. Not unlikely the Fingersplints kill was randed or otherwise chosen.

[Sloonei]

It's sloonei or vivax for me. I'dlike to hear form both of them why I should think they are civ. Golden's point on Sloonei are pretty damning. And I just can't shake the feeling that vivax is no good.

What damning points has goldwn raised against me?

I'm not the kind of mafia player to re-state everything someone else has said just to make more posts and the the thread longer.

He made many posts analyzing you and I think it is on you to look at them and defend your standing.

Please tell me why you aren't voting for vivax today as that has not been stated already.

This is not why I asked. I asked because Golden made a bunch of points about me, but his conclusion seemed much more favorable than “damning”:

I noticed a potential Golden townslip yesterday but didn't say anything because I figured it wasn't necessary, and there was a chance he was fishing. Llama seems to be at least momentarily unaware that llama is dead. I feel like this is less likely to happen if he was one of the people responsible for butchering the llama.

I don't know if Sloonei says this if bad...

You know, I was planning on coming out of this iso with a "world that explains mafia sloonei" and a "world that explains civ sloonei" to weigh them up but...

This is as far as I've gotten so far, and it's really hard for me to make sense of a world that has a mafia sloonei.

He has to be majorly wifom, then full defend one of his teammates, then full bus one of his other teammates... it's messy, in a way that just doesn't feel like a coherent scum plan.

Also, now being fairly confident sloonei is no mason, and reading through just his iso again... I have yet another role in mind for him

Sloonei's gone way up my list from this read, glad I did it.

[Sloonei]

(I am currently leaning towards a vote for sig as well)

[Elohcin]

votes aren't changeable, so the fact that you already voted makes me feel just a bit better about you vax. Are you not going to be around the rest of the day?

[Sloonei]

When silently reading ISOs last night, I noticed that Eloh repeatedly had small, only-slightly-game-related interactions with Eloh, but did not have any similar interactions with other members of the mafia team. This would be a weird dynamic if they are partners.

I also noted some concerning trends in the (lock of) development in sig’s reads in the middle and late game.

[Sloonei]

ebwop: “(lack of)”, it “(lock of)”.

[Sloonei]

When silently reading ISOs last night, I noticed that Eloh repeatedly had small, only-slightly-game-related interactions with Eloh, but did not have any similar interactions with other members of the mafia team. This would be a weird dynamic if they are partners.

I also noted some concerning trends in the (lock of) development in sig’s reads in the middle and late game.

Eloh’s interactions were with Michelle. She was not talking to herself in the thread.

Groggy brain posting

[Vivax]

votes aren't changeable, so the fact that you already voted makes me feel just a bit better about you vax. Are you not going to be around the rest of the day?

On phone so no big shiny posts. But I'll be lurking.
I figured at this point we're just sheeping Sloonei onto his D1 reads. I was hoping to find something more material to prove sig's alignment and that this was it.
For one I am glad that tonally the gamestate has improved. I am susceptible to changes in context in how I interact with other people (as we all are to some degree).

[Golden]

I’ve decided I won’t be voting for vivax.

This is a switch from where you’ve been. Is this switch triggered by you doing any form of specific thread reading?

Yes

OK I'm doing my own reading on Vivax and I find him relatively mafia compatible so far. If you think there are posts which might lead me in a townclear direction it would be really helpful if you can point me to them.

[Sloonei]

I’ve decided I won’t be voting for vivax.

This is a switch from where you’ve been. Is this switch triggered by you doing any form of specific thread reading?

Yes

OK I'm doing my own reading on Vivax and I find him relatively mafia compatible so far. If you think there are posts which might lead me in a townclear direction it would be really helpful if you can point me to them.

I thought Scotty had some nice things to say about him.

[Sloonei]

None of the mafia members had any meaningful interactions with sig.

[Golden]

A little voting analysis (Not looking at timings yet, will if anything looks particularly useful):

Day 1

Axe (Vivax 2.0) and Sloonei both end on Elohcin, along with Quin and Michelle. They scum team could not have relied on rev mafia stepping in... I think this is a pretty good look for Elo right off the bat. Sloonei is voting to save himself so that is NAI. I'll raise the same point for NAA I did for Sloonei, would mafia pile three votes on Elo on day one?

Sig voted for sig? I think I'm reading that right. I'm inclined to rate that as NAI as well, I can see why a member of the mafia might want to have their vote somewhere that is unlikely to draw attention but also the choice to self vote can on day one is not unheard of for civs who don't feel like they have a good read on the game yet.

@sig why did you self vote?

Day 2

Eloh and Sloonei both vote for LoRab along with Quin and G-Man. Michelle doesn't vote at all, so that is the only place with confirmed mafia votes. Sloonei's vote was particularly determinative.

Vivax votes for Quin. LoRab took 6 votes, Quin 4. I think this is a good look although not a townclear given the presence of two mafia ensuring LoRab went ahead. Vivax's reasons for voting Quin, if I recall correctly, was relative faith in llama who I concur was a good person to sheep as town at that time.

Sig didn't vote on day 2.

Day 3

As canvassed previously, Sloonei voted for G-Man from the outset and was a strong proponent of his lynch.

Sig voted for me

Vivax voted for Sloonei. G-Man got 6 votes and Sloonei 4. Notably, no known mafia were on that counterwagon. I don't think this is a great look for Vivax. It's not the best look for sloonei either.

Elo voted for DH. A place I might have ended if day 3 had played out differently, I think maybe she didn't know about SVS sub in at that time if I recall correctly.

Day 4

Elo, sig and Vivax al end up on bea.

Sloonei votes for Vivax

@Sloonei is there any particular reason you didn't vote for bea? I can't recall.

Not sure there's many conclusions to draw from day 4.

Day 5

Oh, I forgot Michelle was the counterwagon here. Two scum counterwagons, fascinating.

I'm not sure there's anything here... not unless the mafia had a preference of who died but I think that's wifom and I don't know how I'd analyse it. Sloonei and sig vote Quin, Vivax votes Michelle, Elo misses the vote but had clearly flagged IRL reasons.

@Vivax you voted for Quin on the day LoRab died. You weren't voting for Quin by the time he died. Can you articulate how your read on Quin developed over time?

Day 6

Sloonei votes Vivax. He did forget about moveable votes.

Sig votes Michelle. He's the sixth voter out of nine overall (but with DF unlikely to vote and Elo missing in action, so he could perceive he might only be sixth of seven) and the vote tally was 3-1-1 before he voted. He put Michelle completely out of reach of being overtaken, but I don't think it would be unreasonable for scum to believe Michelle was done and bus in that spot.

Vivax voted for Wilgy.

Elo was the fifth vote for Michelle, after the deal was done.

Day 7 we just dealt with DF. I don't think there's anything useful there.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Overall, my take aways from voting are:

Elohcin looks really good out of that day one vote and I'm inclined to think that's the single biggest town tell in the voting analysis.

Sloonei leading the lynch on G-Man feels good for him. The most concerning thing, though, is no scum on the sloonei counterwagon at all, unless the answer is vivax. It mitigates the good look somewhat. I still think sloonei feels good in voting analysis overall.

Sig doesn't look incompatible, overall. He did vote for two mafia, but the circumstances of both votes in hindsight wouldn't take me so far as clearing him.

Vivax looks the most compatible with mafia in that analysis, to me. There's nothing in there at all that clears him.

[Golden]

I’ve decided I won’t be voting for vivax.

This is a switch from where you’ve been. Is this switch triggered by you doing any form of specific thread reading?

Yes

OK I'm doing my own reading on Vivax and I find him relatively mafia compatible so far. If you think there are posts which might lead me in a townclear direction it would be really helpful if you can point me to them.

I thought Scotty had some nice things to say about him.

Ooooh I have been meaning to go back and look at Scotty's very well-timed death rainbow.

[Golden]

For one I am glad that tonally the gamestate has improved. I am susceptible to changes in context in how I interact with other people (as we all are to some degree).

Me too. For a minute there I thought I was the only one who was gonna solve, I'm really pleased others turned up, because it refines my thinking.

[sig]

Vivax reaosning for voting me is extremely bad and a push that quite frankly came from nowhere

[sig]

@Golden yea I switched to me since didn’t have a solid read and forgot to come back

[sig]

I don’t have e a lot of time but I’ll be answering Bivax post. I’ll be honest given that he and sloonie were the main two on the block today the fact he started to build a case while sloonie is still kind of coasting makes him look a bit worse in my eyes. I do have to mull it over though some.

I’m still torn between how much work I think the final scum would put in plus accounting for real life so I’ll say the activity level is NAI at this point

[sig]

None of the mafia members had any meaningful interactions with sig.

This might be true, but given the activity levels of the mafia team it isn’t that odd.

[sig]

So what rule could Michelle have possibly broken ? Maybe there's something we don't know from the OP, like Dead Red being responsible for choosing the mafia factional kill. Not unlikely the Fingersplints kill was randed or otherwise chosen.

This has already been resolved? She didn’t vote in the same phase of me. Also I don’t think the Splints kill or really any of them have been that odd or out of place. The game started with mafia targeting solid civ reads and rarely people who heavily accused someone. That’s held true throughout the game.

[sig]

In simpler terms: He unwittingly summed up reasons that made Michelle obvious mafia to other mafia, but used them in reverse to clear DF instead.

Since Michelle voted but got insanified, sig should've been able to infer she was mafia from his own assumptions.
DF didn't vote and got insanified.

At first glance we had two insanified players on D2. One voted, one didn't. No visible grounds for any assumption that it's nonvoting that insanifies players.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

This is (if I remember correctly) very flawed logic.

Also keep in mind I didn’t say Michelle was likely mafia for not voting?

Assuming if we go by the everyone who doesn’t vote is insanified I said it was likely Civs were more likely to have missed and be insanified since missed those rules.


That was a reason for why I hung back on DF until it made sense to vote that way. Frankly your hang up with this doesn’t make any sense and that paired with the idea the Host would put the last mafia member isn’t solid reasoning to vote someone especially this late in the game

[Sloonei]

None of the mafia members had any meaningful interactions with sig.

This might be true, but given the activity levels of the mafia team it isn’t that odd.

Every other remaining player had notable interactions with at least one of them.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei is there any particular reason you didn't vote for bea? I can't recall.

If I remember correctly, there was no drama that day and bea was always getting eliminated. I put my vote on Vivax in the interest of presenting another option, which was a topic of conversation around that time.

[Vivax]

Vivax reaosning for voting me is extremely bad and a push that quite frankly came from nowhere

It didn‘t come from nowhere.
Just the first page of the game put me into a new mindset to look at the game, specifically seeing Sloonei in a new light.
Then I re-evaluated what I already found suspicious with the new information from the Michelle flip in mind and reached said conclusions.

Feeling confident about them too. Unless there‘s TMI afloat where it shouldn‘t be.

As for Golden‘s question:
Iirc without checking my ISO I mostly sheeped legacies of my stronger townreads to decide to vote Quin.
In the Quin vs Michelle situation I played devil‘s advocate for Quin when Wilgy hinted at preferring Michelle iirc, but didn‘t follow up on it.

[sig]

These posts from around the phase where we limmed bea suggest sig held some extra info. Additionally, he's listing scenarios that don't aim at reaching any conclusion in the first post. In the second, he cleared DF under the assumption mafia will try to prevent their mates from not voting.
That should have been invalidated to him when we flipped Michelle, who was insanified on D2 iirc. Did Sig use the same rationale when we limmed DF? No. But that's to be expected even for a town.
Why did he clear DF but not Michelle for the same reason ? My guess would be that he avoided trying to clear teammates, but conf-bias alert on this.

Oh wait. Michelle voted Eloh on D1, was insanified on D2. Sig assumed nonvoting town got insanified.
He made that up to cover up that he was leaking info, of course he didn't pay attention to Michelle's actions while writing this not having a reason to look for mafia among his teammates.

Up next: Point 3 of his first post contains a sentence too much. Is it possible mafia forgot an action ? Sure. Where did the idea of them being punished for it come from ? They have 1-shot roles, which to an uninformed civ suggests the timing of the usage is free for them to choose as well as the usage overall.
So I believe that there's a rule that dictates mafia roles that can submit every night have to do so, and that sig was aware of it when he wrote this post.

Sig and Michelle were both insanified. For all we know that could have been Tangrowth's doing, or one or more hidden rules on how to post in this game (Minimum amount of posts? Minimum amount of words etc?)

Maybe there's other points I'm not seeing or thinking of but these feel like viable posts to pinpoint sig from and if you notice anything else, feel free to pile it on and choo-choo.

Spoiler: show

Also it’s interesting to note we haven’t seen any Non player votes yet, if that holds true we can only assume one of 3 things

1. the mafia role was blocked so that’ll be a interesting thing to keep in mind if a new case suddenly springs up

2. Some sort of protection shenanigans occurred and nobody is aware of it

3. Mafia forgot to submit an action. I can only assume if they forgot to submit some form of punishment will be present just like for those who forget to vote

11 players left 3 mafia.


We’re still in a good place thankfully. (Assuming Scotty isn’t mafia which I’d have assumed if he was vigged said vig would’ve been freaking out)

I’m leaning toward Michelle or Quin. Quin based off and Michelle is mainly gut.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned

Don't understand how being insaned clears DF for you

no

I thought people who missed votes were the ones who were insanified?

Not sure about that, and you aren't either, which is why this is off to me. Because it's worded as if sig's assuming that it only affects town, which is something town shouldn't know.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned

I’m operating under the assumption missed vote = insanified.

Even prior to Bea flip I was leaning toward anyway who was insanified day 2 is town and potentially day 3. I just think someone on mafia would’ve caught the rule hint and made sure everyone voted while if town didn’t closely read the rules they’d miss it.

This to me makes DF look much better since I’m thinking inactive towb.

Look I won’t continue to relitigate what’s essential random mech discussions.

I stand by everything I said surrounded the mech talk it all made sense and Vivax is just nitpicking at this point.

End of the day his reasoning comes down to the idea I had extra info, even though we had a full day where it was basically agreed Insanfied = no vote WHICH has also been proven in just the most recent phase (Eloh was insanfied after missing a vote)

The second reason/why he brought it up is based on the idea that the Host would drop a hint in the kill post that I was mafia (I’m not) and the hosts wouldn’t do that. So that’s just instantly makes this case almost invalid

[sig]

Vivax reaosning for voting me is extremely bad and a push that quite frankly came from nowhere

It didn‘t come from nowhere.
Just the first page of the game put me into a new mindset to look at the game, specifically seeing Sloonei in a new light.
Then I re-evaluated what I already found suspicious with the new information from the Michelle flip in mind and reached said conclusions.

Feeling confident about them too. Unless there‘s TMI afloat where it shouldn‘t be.

As for Golden‘s question:
Iirc without checking my ISO I mostly sheeped legacies of my stronger townreads to decide to vote Quin.
In the Quin vs Michelle situation I played devil‘s advocate for Quin when Wilgy hinted at preferring Michelle iirc, but didn‘t follow up on it.

How did the first page of NAI randomness create any reads?

[sig]

Also Vivax post around the last two kills makes no sense.

Firstly Wilgy wasn’t suspecting me his eyes remained on a set POE of Sloonie/DF followed by Vivax

Scotty was an obvious choice as a rezzed civ and a town leader. He was eyeing DF/Sloonie

You look at the trajectory this mafia team has taken throughout the game they’ve gone after the universal town reads AND the people who seriously suspect them. There’s no reason to think this dynamic would change going into this phase.


That means are focus should remain on Sloonie or Vivax. Only one is mafia so it comes down to who do we think is being more civvie right now and who has been more civic or in the past

[sig]

I’d say there are two main things to look at with Vivax today

What’s his agenda for the push today. My first instinct is to NO U it especially since he’s in my POW. BUT, is it a bad look that he’s still digging and trying to build a case? If he was mafia he could just back the Sloonie lynch today. Then build said case tomorrow

[sig]

Meanwhile Sloonie is around but again not doing or saying much. At this point he’s just kind of adding fuel to the fire of lynching me without doing any leg work so won’t get the blame

[Vivax]

When you see Sloonei going whack a mole on flipped mafia it makes you wonder why you should have been the exception on the following pages.

Far from NAI page 1.
Or Quin saying justice for dog aka sig.
Feels like there‘s insider jokes about that make more sense as the game goes on.

[sig]

Or Golden is just deep wolfing

Ooooor Eloh is under the radar scumming at which point GG rip

[sig]

When you see Sloonei going whack a mole on flipped mafia it makes you wonder why you should have been the exception on the following pages.

Far from NAI page 1.
Or Quin saying justice for dog aka sig.
Feels like there‘s insider jokes about that make more sense as the game goes on.

See this is why I don’t like your vote.

It’s an “inside joke” to the entire established player base. The fact you just locked in a vote with that as a reason frankly makes no sense.

It’s also a very odd reason to be placing a vote when we’re this late into the game.

[sig]

@Elohcin @Golden

Given Vivax reasoning for voting for me what are your thoughts? Is this coming across as genuine reasons or not?

[Golden]

@Elohcin @Golden

Given Vivax reasoning for voting for me what are your thoughts? Is this coming across as genuine reasons or not?

I need to read vivax for myself, and given sloonei’s read I think a look at scotty is valuable too.

The sense I have is vivax’s vote is poe and I don’t think it’s inherently ‘not genuine’ to vote for someone because you think the rest are townier.

[sig]

@Elohcin @Golden

Given Vivax reasoning for voting for me what are your thoughts? Is this coming across as genuine reasons or not?

I need to read vivax for myself, and given sloonei’s read I think a look at scotty is valuable too.

The sense I have is vivax’s vote is poe and I don’t think it’s inherently ‘not genuine’ to vote for someone because you think the rest are townier.

True but more in the frame of mind that is the case genuine or am I misreading that the main reason is that I’m the last POE?

Since the reasons he gave appears as if he’s trying to build a case vs just saying you’re in the POE?

I’m still committed to the final POE of Sloonie vs Vivax.

[Vivax]

I couldn‘t have laid my reasons out better than this.
You turned one blind eye to Michelle while the other was painfully open, staring at rules you weren‘t supposed to be aware of, or be able to assume.

You‘re just nitpicking at the response to a parcour of strawmen put in front of me at this point.

[Sloonei]

I've largely arrived at sig as my preferred vote for today due to process of elimination. I had time to read on my phone yesterday evening, but was not posting as I went in the interest of saving time. The result of my silent study was finding reasons to cross every name off the list except for sig. I did also find a couple arguments to be made for sig to be mafia. One is the lack of meaningful interactions with the mafia team. Another has to do with some developments in his reads which do not seem organic or consistent.

If you'll all allow me one more moment of self-absorption, I find the easiest example to point out has to do with his handling of me in the mid-game:

Spoiler: show

Still have some of day 3 to catch up to do I’m definitely less confident in some of my reads now then I was before.

I also plan to do a llama NKA. Initial thoughts though is Quin comes out looking bad for sure.

Out of the 5 Gman voters

G-Man
6
24%
Drwilgy , Michelle, Golden, Sloonei, Kate, Ricochet

Most solid/Civ: Sloonie and Kate
Mid tier: DrWilgy
Iffy tier: Michelle and Golden


I 100% believe we’ll find a second mafia member among the high posters just like Gman said that means it’s either Golden Scotty or SVS/DH in my mind. So gotta reread them

I’m suspecting we’ll see one mafia member on rhe opposing wagon and then one on a random wagon maybe

In the immediate aftermath of G-man's flip, sig pins me in his "Most solid/Civ" tier. He follows that up by endorsing G-man's theory that a high-poster is mafia, but he names everyone from that grouping but me. I find it questionable that sig would so readily and blindly endorse a theory that originated with a confirmed mafia here, when doing a post-mortem of that very same mafia member. But that is not my main issue here. My main issue will be how sig repeatedly revises his stance on me over the next couple phases, seemingly at random. We are beginning here, from a point of "Most Solid Civ". Moving on:

Spoiler: show

I’m gonna go ahead and vote for Quin. I think Llama + being off major wagon + the peanut gallery votes + Sloonie GMan analysis is a pretty good reason to start there.

The more I read the more I think Bea could be mafia but I’m approaching that cautiously.

I could still see Golden being mafia but that’s more tinfoil right now I do want to ISO him though

And then last is up in the air again. I do think we’ve got a high poster so that means either DH/SVS, Golden, or Scotty since I doubt a mafia team of Sloonie and Gman wouldn’t be able to create a third wagon.

I’ll say for SVS is that she plays an amazing game as mafia and I can’t read her worth a damn BUT DH game was very Civvie near the end. The only caveat would be if DH/SVS entire team is filled with less active players then I could see the in thread anger

No big changes here, but this will be relevant later on for a couple of reasons. First, Sig casts a vote for Quin and specifically cites Sloonei's analysis as a factor in that vote. He then goes on to reiterate that Sloonei is unlikely to be mafia because "I doubt a mafia team of Sloonie and Gman wouldn’t be able to create a third wagon." At this stage, sig has firmly presented arguments for me to be down, and also used my analysis to justify a vote on a player. That player, incidentally, will flip mafia.

Spoiler: show

I have a hypothetical that I’d like to pose to the thread right now. I think it would be interesting to pursue new worlds where the following is true:

Sloonei is town.

Maybe you and Scotty are both mafia playing deep wolf games.

Sig does a 180 and embraces the Sloonei tinfoil. This comes at a time when the thread had begun to scratch its head over G-man's refusal to vote for me.

Spoiler: show

Also Scotty’s death is making me tinfoil a world where Sloonie is Mafia much more

In the previous post, sig's tinfoil suspicion of me was tied, at least partially, to Scotty also being mafia. Here, Scotty's death is also presented as a bad look for me. Sig has made no mention of his former town read on me, or why it should be disregarded now. He has not reconciled the problem of G-man and Sloonei being incapable of creating a counterwagon to themselves. He has not denounced my analysis of G-man's posts. He's merely embraced tinfoil suspicion against me when it became evident that other (town) players in the game had not removed me from their POE list.

Spoiler: show

Also guess I’ll throw my vote on Bea for now also.

It doesn’t seem like we’re gonna get much out of the thread this phase. I do still plan to do an NKA (now for both Scotty and Llama. Sloonie/Scotty seemed to have done a great job with a Gman reread so I won’t be doing that atm, plus never really liked doing those anyway.

Sig still places value in my G-man analysis, however.

Spoiler: show

Okay so my issue right now is I’ve got literally zero scum reads and very few scum pings.


Llama was very anti Quin which seems like a place to maybe place a vote.

I could see Sloonie or Golden being mafia, based off the High posting theory which I do think is true + Gman not voting for sloonie is eyebrow raising.

Additionally it’s clear mafia are now shooting for high content people so why go Llama than Scotty but leave golden and sloonie.

Michelle is still a gut mafia lean I’m nursing but I’ve got zero reason for it besides gut

Remember earlier when sig both voted for Quin because of my G-man analysis, and gave a specific reason why a Sloonei/G-man pairing made little sense?
Well, in this post he says "I've got literally zero scum reads" and then makes the argument that a Sloonei/G-man pairing is something to be worried about. He also cites an unrelated reason to vote for Quin. Then there is this:
"Additionally it’s clear mafia are now shooting for high content people so why go Llama than Scotty but leave golden and sloonie. "

This kind of question does not feel sincere and gives the impression of fearmongering, or drumming up more tinfoil against the most vocal players (at the time). It is not unfair to question mafia kill choices. But the framing of this question seems to suggest that the mafia team was deliberately leaving Golden and Sloonei alive while taking out all other high volume players. They had killed two players at this point with two nightkills. Sloonei and Golden were not targeted alongside Scotty and llama because the mafia team did not have four kills in a two-night span.
Of course, Golden and I are both still alive right now, so maybe this thought could have more merit. But there is now only one remaining mafia member, so there is no such thing as a Golden/Sloonei pairing.

Spoiler: show

The iffy players for me right now would be
1. Sloonie
2. Michelle
3. Quin
4. DF
5. Vivax
6. Golden

In that order of suspicion. My DF theory doesn’t really seem to be connecting with anyone else so maybe that’s wrong.

Quin/Golden aren’t both mafia

NAA had a strong start and I like some of Vivax posts but nothing stands out as super civvie.

Michelle is gut

Quin is mainly Llama and slight gut

BUT Quin being off wagon for Bea was a bit odd maybe but weird that Golden brought that up when he built a small counter wagon which he then dumped. didnt he do the same thing he accused Quin of doing?

And we're going to end here. I am now at the top of Sig's "Iffy players" list, ahead of both Michelle and Quin. Note first that Sig provides a brief explanation for his read on every player on this list EXCEPT me, the player occupying the top spot. That's a weird look on its own. I also want to emphasize my overall point by reiterating where sig began and ended on me during this journey.

Beginning:

Most solid/Civ: Sloonie and Kate
Mid tier: DrWilgy
Iffy tier: Michelle and Golden

I’m gonna go ahead and vote for Quin. I think Llama + being off major wagon + the peanut gallery votes + Sloonie GMan analysis is a pretty good reason to start there.

Ending:

The iffy players for me right now would be
1. Sloonie
2. Michelle
3. Quin
4. DF
5. Vivax
6. Golden

I would have an easier time believing that this is a genuine progression if there existed any evidence that Sig had actually reconsidered his town read on me prior to jumping on the tinfoil train. Instead, it looks like a player who presumed that everyone would see me as town, but then, when didn't happen, did an abrupt 180 to keep me in his suspect pool.

[Sloonei]

Meanwhile Sloonie is around but again not doing or saying much. At this point he’s just kind of adding fuel to the fire of lynching me without doing any leg work so won’t get the blame

Posts that aged poorly

[Golden]

Was planning to use my commute time to do more reading but that hasn’t worked out. I have to trust sloonei’s read on vivax.

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine