Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Glad to know I'm not alone. Been feeling like I'm on an island this game.
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- ilario
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
well i had the uwu trio of u lily and porcha town on d1, so ur still on the uwu island for me. that being said i havent put much efforts into my reads so far
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I feel bad I didnt have a chance to get back on and find lily...I sucks.
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- ☆Princess Abigail☆
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Not really tunneled. I didn't end on her. Just thought she was sus early.
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- ☆Princess Abigail☆
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
In the day
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- ilario
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
what was sus about her?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I dunno I just didn't like how she was paying and her entrance and how she was treating me but looking back I think I'm just an idiot lol
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- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I don't believe you.
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- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
sprityo] aubergine
What right does anyone have to object?
What right does anyone have to object?
- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Yes you do.
Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
This is true, but I've got my eyes on you.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:39 pmYes you do.
Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature
all of them.
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- ☆Princess Abigail☆
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
That's a lot of eyes
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.
And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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- pyxxy
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
"how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol"Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:56 amMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lolpyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:22 pmLet me know if there are more NPC hardclaims that I missed, I don't think I'll color any town claims though just fyi
I think it's interesting Manny and Lumi both hardclaimed NPC pretty fast on D1 and have been consistent in their voting behavior since. I would also read them as NPCs personally.
By comparison, SilverKeith going D1 no vote, D2 DrWigly, D3 vote DrWigly, D4 no vote is interesting, purely because it's an NPC claim behaving differently on different days. I don't read SK as wolfy though.
From D2 final vote count:
santygrass (6): Guillotine, Vivax, pyxxy, EnderWiggin, DeeZees, Creature
hollowkatt (6): santygrass, Jackofhearts2005, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, tutuu, DrWilgy
[with ~7 min to go in D2][with ~1h15m to go in D2]tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)This is before Dys announced in the thread that they were almost certainly town bc on both wagons.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:44 pm hollowkatt (5): iaafr (229), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (173), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (40)
santygrass (4): RondoDimBuckle (141), DeeZees (39), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192)
I don't get the impression that there was an attempted save of santy, which I think makes santy look good.
Vivax/santy not paired bc of the way Vivax switched wagons at the end while having no ideas who was a player vs NPC bc D2
+plus
this would be pretty blatant TMI for scum to post D2 imo?santygrass wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm I also think Scotty is rand V .
I hate the Npc shield in slots like Sloonei or Guillo.
Risinq , Dyslexicon and Lily felt towny.
Dezeees awful posting
I declare town!santygrass
(but if there was a save, then one of Jack or Wigly is scum, ez pz)
Dont get how you conclude with town santy off that post at all
They also added convo about who is npc and who isnt which was pretty pointless
Any wolf could say what santy said there without there being much TMI
Only tmi is who their friends are
So idk how you think that post would require tmi
And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ????? It has tmi somehow???
I'm so confused
right that's my point
"And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ?????"
you tell me this is my first game with santy but I don't think that wolf santy would make a post like this on D2 when no one really knows who the NPCs are
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
It isn't a pair of glasses, it is a nonagintuple of glasses.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:02 pmYeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.
And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
@pyxxy, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the analysis. What conclusion do you draw from this though?
You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.
Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.
You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.
Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.
- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
- nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Y'all should stop voting Falcon.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
idk im feeling disillusioned
idk im feeling disillusioned
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Idk, Hally maybe?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
lol
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Why did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.
Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)
Who should town try to kill?
Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.
The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.
That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%
So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.
A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV
So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.
Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees
Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?
Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)
Who should town try to kill?
Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.
The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.
That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%
So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.
A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV
So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.
Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees
Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Also mindmeld with nutella
I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.
The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.
I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.
The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
@ilario
Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow
Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow
- Seanzie
- Polarized
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
No to Falcon. No.
Not yet at least.
Not yet at least.
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- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I am very town
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
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- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 378
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Lumi Porscha town forever
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
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Resident Juice Sipping Icon
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- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.
Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go HmmmmmmDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pmWhy did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
falcon is town.
so is falcon45ca
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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- NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
- i moderated for mafiathesyndicate.com and all i got was this stupid title
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I think I need more posts
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- NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
- i moderated for mafiathesyndicate.com and all i got was this stupid title
- Posts in topic: 76
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
But I should be good now
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