The Syndicate

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:55 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm I would hope.

If not, we can have a jolly LOL together as the Town goes down.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:56 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:55 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm I don't mind if Simon goes. Boy ignored my question twice. Very simple to answer.

True. Forgot that bit.

[VOTE: Simon] aubergine

Did you?

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:21 pm You are Takeda Nobukado, Shingen's younger brother who was his body double before the Kagemusha took the role! You are a member of the Takeda Clan, and win when all threats to your faction are eliminated or otherwise neutralized or if nothing can stop this from happening.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:09 pm

You are the Kagemusha! A thief that was about to be executed for some petty crimes, you were saved when it was realized that you would be useful as a body double.

You start out as an Independent Survivor with the goal of being alive at endgame. You have OC with Takeda Shingen. If Shingen dies before you do, they will flip as the Kagemusha and you will convert to being a member of the Takeda Clan and inherit any abilities they haven't yet used and the ability to settle ties. If both of you die or three day/night cycles pass after Shingen's death, the ruse will be revealed and the Oda Clan will be able to kill twice a night and gain the ability to settle ties. You start out as a Survivor with the win condition of being alive at endgame, but if Takeda Shingen dies before you do, you will instead become a member of the Takeda Clan and win when all threats to your faction have been eliminated or otherwise neutralized or if nothing can stop this from happening.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:09 pm

You are the Takeda Shingen! The leader of the Takeda Clan, you are a great strategist but need to tread carefully after the Oda have attacked your domain.

As the daimyō', you can settle ties. You additionally have four abilities based on your battle tactics:

Swift as the wind: One night, make yourself untargetable by any night actions.
Quiet as a forest: One night, find out who a player of your choice visited.
Fierce as fire: One night, prevent a player of your choosing from using any night actions.
Immovable as a mountain: One night, protect one player from any killing actions.

You have OC with the Kagemusha. If you dies before the Kagemusha does, you will flip as the Kagemusha and the Kagemusha will convert to being a member of the Takeda Clan and inherit any abilities you haven't yet used and the ability to settle ties. If both of you die or three day/night cycles pass after your death, the ruse will be revealed and the Oda Clan will be able to kill twice a night and gain the ability to settle ties. You are a member of the Takeda Clan, and win when all threats to your faction are eliminated or otherwise neutralized or if nothing can stop this from happening.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:15 pm Seven players, homie. Two mafia guaranteed.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:19 pm 7 players, yeet a Wolf, 4-2. kill 2 Town, 2-2 parity. Three wolves, it's done now.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:20 pm If Tony is mafia, I lose.
If sig is mafia, I lose.

Four others with 2-3 mafia in them. Epignosis, Long Con, LoRab, falcon45ca

I'll revisit the association dynamics in this smaller set and see what is most viable. And then sig will vote me out with his pecs glistening, and the game will end.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:22 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:20 pm If Tony is mafia, I lose.
If sig is mafia, I lose.

Four others with 2-3 mafia in them. Epignosis, Long Con, LoRab, falcon45ca

I'll revisit the association dynamics in this smaller set and see what is most viable. And then sig will vote me out with his pecs glistening, and the game will end.

Ok, if we need anchors, I'm fine with sig and Tony. And you. And include me, dude I am Town.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:32 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:00 am
And so, since you are neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth

Straight from the book of Revelation. Love it.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:25 pm Having any reasonable reason to believe someone is Town is enough to put them out of the running at this point of course.

Tony being the most alert to the rules and the Shingen everything disqualifies him from being eliminated ever, due to the blunderkill.

We have all agreed sig = Town from the get-go, and I will admit it was about "I'm not cliché voting sig out early" for me back then. Is there something crucial about him that sets him apart, like Tony?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:07 pm I think Epi is town? But really he's a hard read for me, I will say he's more involved than I normally associate w/ his scum game, ergo town for now

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:05 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:36 pm [VOTE: LoRab] aubergine just as a placeholder for now.

I shouldn't even be playing. I'm still working.

Harumph.

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:36 pm Current thoughts:

I’m of 2 minds on LC, because I read him wrong last game. But he has been pingy. Especially using the FEB emoji. So, not voting him for now, but keeping an eyeball there.

I do suspect Wilgy. His posts feel like he’s faking himself, if that makes sense. Like, he’s trying too hard to sound like civ wilgy…his tone just feels off. For the moment, I am voting there. Open to changing, but definitely suspecting.

[VOTE: wilgy ] aubergine

Also, voting someone with a vote already because self preservation, and I know I am civ.

@Epignosis why did you placeholder your vote on me?

Also, part of my challenge this came is that I’m still not at all used to closed games. So, I’m still doing some brain wrapping around. Working on it.

But first, a nap. Because this weekend was wonderful and exhausting. Mostly exhausting.

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:51 pm Been reading but not posting over dinner. I’m not seeing bad Jjj. Moving to Abigail Sofia to break the tie. Don’t really have strong opinion of her, but epi has suspected her, and I have no reason to think she is civ.

[VOTE: AS] aubergine

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:26 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:24 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:04 am I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.

To be clear: most people won't.

In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.

I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.

I do NOT have my head wrapped around this. Too busy.

[VOTE: LoRab] aubergine

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:19 am [VOTE: lorab] aubergine @LoRab Who else is on your team?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:28 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:07 am I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...

Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:02 pm

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:19 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:28 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:07 am I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...






Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

If you read my posts, you’ll see I was working pretty much the entirety of the weekend, which is why I didn’t post much. You can also see that I’ve been engaging as I catch up from Jewish holiday madness. But happy to engage with you if you give me something to engage about.

Also, she/her. (I have no issue being called they, and appreciate people not assuming gender, but in case you were wondering)

That's fair, and I appreciate the response

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:07 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:17 pm @falcon45ca please me a single read other than “Jay is mafia”.

Sure

moto & Simon both can be Maf. I don't think they both necessarily are, but really the only engagement I've noticed is responding to tags & quotes w/ answers that seem more about fulfilling the need to answer, rather than actually trying to solve & move the game forward

I think Epi is town? But really he's a hard read for me, I will say he's more involved than I normally associate w/ his scum game, ergo town for now

Long Con's approach strikes me as genuinely trying to solve, and his reads don't come across as throwaways, but rather the result of a logical process. I wouldn't look there til an F3

TSP there's just a je nais se quoi about his posting tone that just feels natural. I'd say the same is true of sig, tho I've not noticed him ITT as much

And I can't see a reason to TR Lorab

[VOTE: simon] aubergine

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:15 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:19 am [VOTE: lorab] aubergine @LoRab Who else is on your team?

Any particular reason you’re voting me?

And anyone who is a civvie is on my team.

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:19 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:28 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:07 am I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...

Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

If you read my posts, you’ll see I was working pretty much the entirety of the weekend, which is why I didn’t post much. You can also see that I’ve been engaging as I catch up from Jewish holiday madness. But happy to engage with you if you give me something to engage about.

Also, she/her. (I have no issue being called they, and appreciate people not assuming gender, but in case you were wondering)

LoRab wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:46 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

Responding to all your points in this quote and following. While my posting has missed a ton, I’ve read everything. And, I also agree with your logic on this in general.

I agree that falcon is a good choice for a vote. Especially after his response to the accusation.

LoRab wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:46 am Meant to add:

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:09 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:41 am falcon45ca
motobot
DrWilgy
Abigail Sophia
LoRab
Simon
TonyStarkPrime
sig
Long Con
JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis

Is there meaning to your colors here? Or is it just pretty…

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:10 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 4:52 pm Maybe no one will post and these guys can just yeet me themselves

Which guys exactly?

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:39 pm I'm very likely to vote falcon.

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:36 pm Current thoughts:

I’m of 2 minds on LC, because I read him wrong last game. But he has been pingy. Especially using the FEB emoji. So, not voting him for now, but keeping an eyeball there.

I do suspect Wilgy. His posts feel like he’s faking himself, if that makes sense. Like, he’s trying too hard to sound like civ wilgy…his tone just feels off. For the moment, I am voting there. Open to changing, but definitely suspecting.

[VOTE: wilgy ] aubergine

Also, voting someone with a vote already because self preservation, and I know I am civ.

@Epignosis why did you placeholder your vote on me?

Also, part of my challenge this came is that I’m still not at all used to closed games. So, I’m still doing some brain wrapping around. Working on it.

But first, a nap. Because this weekend was wonderful and exhausting. Mostly exhausting.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:07 pm

LoRab wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:36 pm Current thoughts:

I’m of 2 minds on LC, because I read him wrong last game. But he has been pingy. Especially using the FEB emoji. So, not voting him for now, but keeping an eyeball there.

Just because it's a reasonable piece of evidence to decry any emoji tells you might be implying:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:20 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:17 pm Almost EoD and I'm actually short on time this cycle.

LC has significantly more resistance than Nutella, but the phase has felt pretty wagon stagnant. Oh well, with dueling wagons this game, I'm not sure if I'd be able to tell.

I feel like a teammate would be pushing for a 3rd option if one of these two were bad and I don't see that happening.

Maybe my Wolf team just believes in the power of my song.

A Wolf has a significant advantage in a musical duel against a Townie, because they are automatically up two votes, assuming a team of three.

For those of you playing along at home, this is from Battle of the Bands, aka "last game".

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:02 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:53 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:48 pm Why did you have to move off Simon?

See the gif above.

I am just shaky about voting alongside falcon and LoRab and where's another wagon on someone in my POE pool featuring two people I have an easier time trusting. I'm open to the Simon option. I might swap again. I dunno.

I said before that every vote feels like guessing in this game, and that is still true.

Lorab is the only "safe" vote you're willing to vote at this time, as she voted for AS.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:52 pm Simon and Lorab both are not here to say anything.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:52 pm At least Lorab voted.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:53 pm I would hope that Shingen would take care of himself a little better, so I can handle Simon or Lorab as "safe".

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:40 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:39 pm I'm very likely to vote falcon.

I am in a similar place, if only for Wilgy's sake. Let me know if you agree with my assessment that he is a bad fit with LoRab.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:16 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:53 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:52 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:39 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 5:53 pm gif

What's your falcon read?

What’s your JaggedJimmyJay and/or Epignosis read?

I'm not doing reads right now.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:28 pm Scotty town Epi town

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:13 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:10 pm I won't lie, having the Epi family all in this game is a strange wrinkle that is a factor in how I think about it.

Agreed, it's an unavoidable piece of the puzzle. I keep finding myself trying to determine what their posts might look like if any of the Epi clan share BTSC, for example. I really don't know how to determine that though.

Like when Epi knew that they were going to come after you?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:17 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:16 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:13 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:10 pm I won't lie, having the Epi family all in this game is a strange wrinkle that is a factor in how I think about it.

Agreed, it's an unavoidable piece of the puzzle. I keep finding myself trying to determine what their posts might look like if any of the Epi clan share BTSC, for example. I really don't know how to determine that though.

Like when Epi knew that they were going to come after you?

I thought about it. I wouldn't say Epi predicted or forecasted it, but I did wonder if he had a hand in it with at least one of them.

But what kind of Bush league mistake would that be for him to make?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:22 pm I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:52 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:50 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:48 pm To be clear, sig posted this before that:

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:35 am The scotty kill is odd, I’ll need to do an NKA of them though.

I don’t recall a single post by PA, however both Epi and Jay reasoning mirror the game that just ended where she was civ and also misvoted fairly early I think. (I died D2 and stopped paying attention, but we won so GoC 2024 here I come )

However, given that it looks like sig was copying notes from Night 1 (in the content you referenced), your point may stand. We're forced to take that or leave it, but I don't object at this point.

Oh, okay then. Jesus. Turning 40 sucks.

LOL. It looks towny for you anyway, so that's a plus.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:43 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:47 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:21 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.

Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.

So, I don't care for falcon's hyperbole here.

Yeah Wilgy sussed me as well, and he also had Jay as SR. I recall Jay & I being his top SRs, or thereabouts.

I also recall Scotty having Jay near the top of his scum list. I did not ISO him, I went from memory

It makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:48 pm If epi is mafia we’re cooked and it may or may not be sigs fault

Things aren’t looking great, granted I didn’t pop up last phase in time so oops, BUT I don’t like how that Simon vote went down mafia definitely went along with it

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:51 pm However, my view on Jay hasn’t changed his willingness to switch from lorab/falcon to Simon is a red flag especially given his other theory which we were keeping quite but no point now.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:53 pmI think I need to totally reevaluate this game.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:54 pm I also totally forgot about TSP in the above.

Do we think we have two independents? If not he has to be mafia right?

I could also see him being one to do a gambit with Wilgy

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:54 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:51 pm However, my view on Jay hasn’t changed his willingness to switch from lorab/falcon to Simon is a red flag especially given his other theory which we were keeping quite but no point now.

I quite literally had no clue what do with my vote. Everyone felt like a guess. Ask yourself if you'd have a clue what you're doing if you didn't have me to sus about.

(I suspected motobot was the most likely Kagemusha/Shingen by a decent margin and accordingly never went after him beyond generic paranoia that he might be teamed with his dad -- Simon didn't even vote at EOD and seemed unconcerned that his own destruction would ruin the game).

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:56 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:54 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:51 pm However, my view on Jay hasn’t changed his willingness to switch from lorab/falcon to Simon is a red flag especially given his other theory which we were keeping quite but no point now.

I quite literally had no clue what do with my vote. Everyone felt like a guess. Ask yourself if you'd have a clue what you're doing if you didn't have me to sus about.

(I suspected motobot was the most likely Kagemusha/Shingen by a decent margin and accordingly never went after him beyond generic paranoia that he might be teamed with his dad -- Simon didn't even vote at EOD and seemed unconcerned that his own destruction would ruin the game).

Sorry Jay this is a tunnel I’m not leaving quite yet

But for the sake of the experiment if it isn’t you or epi we need 3

Falcon, lorab, TSP, and LC

If we say Falcon and lorab aren’t on a team that leaves one mafia one civ and TSP/LC

I’m mainly thinking we have two mafia, but the chance that we could have three means we need three at least in POE.

I think a reread of Falcon and lorab are in order.

I’m also leaning towards the AS voters as a good place to start