Re: Disney Cars Mafia [Day 9]
Posted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:54 pm
RIP Dom. I hope Chick made the right choice there.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Well, I was totally wrong about Ambray, and I wouldn't necessarily find anyone suspicious for voting Ambray per se, since imo there was a reasonable basis for suspecting her. But I think if there were any late voters for Ambray who also voted for you last time around, we'll be most likely to find a baddie who was just latching on to the most prominent case.Long Con wrote:See ya in the next life, brotha Dom.
DFaraday, what do you think of Ambray's lynch?
This is a good analysis.DFaraday wrote:My analysis of the past couple of lynches is baffling, to say the least.
Tink voted for MR, and Simon, who was apparently civ, vouched for her, so I think Tink is alright.
MM replaced BWT, who was killed by Grem and then rezzed, so he's almost certainly not part of the baddie team. It looks like Chick killed while BWT was dead, so MM can't be him either.
Splints cast the deciding vote on MR, so she's almost certainly not on the bad team.
BR voted for MR, so she has that in her favor. Otherwise I have no real opinion on BR.
Snowy voted for LC, then in the most recent lynch voted Ambray, then abruptly switched back to me. I know he seems to have had a connection to Made, but his recent behavior does give me pause.
FZ is one I need to look at in the morning, when I'm more fully energized.
LC I'm pretty sure is not on the bad team (although if he is then I'd need to rethink everything I've done up til now).
Flo and Ramone had BTSC, so Occam's Razor suggests that Snowy is probably Ramone. But British Intel also have BTSC, and seem to basically be civ.FZ. wrote: I was under the assumption that the two civs who could communicate are Made and Snow, but Simon vouched for Tink. Who are the two townies with BTSC?
Nope, I am not he.Tink wrote:Long Con has to be Professor Z.
Why do you say so?Tink wrote:Long Con has to be Professor Z.
I'm very interested to hear this, because I'm really not him. What do you think of my DF theory, MM?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Why do you say so?Tink wrote:Long Con has to be Professor Z.
Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
Can you expand on this?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
You know? Is this me saying don't lynch Made know?Long Con wrote:I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
If by that, you mean 100% sure... then yes.Snow Dog wrote:You know? Is this me saying don't lynch Made know?Long Con wrote:I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
OkLong Con wrote:If by that, you mean 100% sure... then yes.Snow Dog wrote:You know? Is this me saying don't lynch Made know?Long Con wrote:I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
Do you know that because you are bad?Long Con wrote:I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
She's been very quiet this game. I don't think she's a baddie, I think she'd be more involved as a baddie. She's a possible Chick Hicks, I was thinking about her being that role when she mentioned that she can never trust MP and Dom, and then they were both killed by Chick... but I don't think that's true anymore, because I really think that DF is Chick.Snow Dog wrote:OkLong Con wrote:If by that, you mean 100% sure... then yes.Snow Dog wrote:You know? Is this me saying don't lynch Made know?Long Con wrote:I didn't accidentally forget that possibility. I just know that Ambray was the real Lightning McQueen, that's all.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Or Ambray was a seemer and we were all actually right. That's not a possibility I see you accidentally forgetting.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
My belief was that MP is Lightning, and I think there is good enough reason to believe it.
So what do you think of Black Rock?
Hang on LC, let me try to get this in order. You were confident that I was Lightning, then when Ambray came back as Lightning, you are suddenly SURE that she was the real Lightning and not the seemer? And on top of that, you're now very confident that I'm Chick? Quite the turn around you've had here with little explanation.Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.
My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:
- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.
I'm still not sold on the MP case, tbh.Long Con wrote:I'm assuming MP was bad because I believe that the case I made against him and Dom was accurate. I don't expect you to agree with anything I said, DF, I understand.
I know that Ambray was not the Seemer. I'm only "suddenly SURE" insomuch as her death was "sudden". When I saw her role in the lynch, there was a "sudden" and easy logical connection I made that told me she's definitely Lightning McQueen.
Ok, DF, if you want it to be MP that survived the Night 1 kill, then how did he do it? He wasn't McQueen and he wasn't Chick Hicks - why don't YOU come up with a theory that's more believable? I'm just going with what's most likely. There's a few secrets in the roles, and the one that far outweighs the others for having a NK-survive is Chick, and MP wasn't Chick. You were targeted, and you survived, because you are Chick Hicks. Simplest explanation was that you are Lightning McQueen, but that was proven false, so next most likely is you are Chick.
Yes, I know, sorry. I'm around but I've really been failing. At the moment I am looking into DF and BR. I think some good points have been made for both.FZ. wrote:Splints, you haven't shared any thoughts since I came back. Care to tell us what you think?
Ok, well, when I'm proven right, I'll look to you to acknowledge it. I made a big assumption that your trust in Made meant you had Civvie BTSC, and you seemed pretty comfortable with that. I have at least presented a case that DF is Chick. It's more than you or anyone else has done, the only other accusations I've seen are "so-and-so could be Chicks, because I could imagine it being so".Snow Dog wrote:You make too many assumptions LC.
That is true, because it's the baddies' kill tonight. Not to mention that anyone could be a re-wired recruit of Professor Z, joining the baddie team. Even (especially?) the people that everyone has more trust in. I just don't know who the baddies are, I'm a lot more sure of DF.FZ. wrote:But I think that it's more important that we focus on the baddie team today.
I am failing for having missed several votes. When this game started I was staying with family in NY, and then came home to London. I've been home for a couple weeks now, but had to settle, adjust to different time zone, and spend some time with my husband. It's proven more difficult to get back into the game.FZ. wrote:LC, I don't think that the secret Chicks has is surviving a night kill. I think it has something to do with the "hate ties", and I don't see how surviving a kill is related. If that's your main reasoning for thinking DF is a baddie, then I'd have to agree with him that there are better explanations for surviving the NK.
The way I see it, I think Chicks would want to keep a low profile, if he stands a chance of being the last one standing. He can't be too "in your face" or annoy anyone, nor can he be too quiet, though those who want to lynch the quiet ones have already been NK, and if I'm not wrong, they were killed by Chicks (llama, MP for example). So BR and Splints are certainly a possibility. Moreover, Chicks killed Dom tonight, and if he listened to me, he killed a person that I thought was a baddie. Who among the players was more likely to listen to me?
Splints, why are you failing? Have you been travelling a lot lately? Or is there another reason you're not contributing?
But I think that it's more important that we focus on the baddie team today.
What do you think? About everything I mean. Who do you think is bad?fingersplints wrote:I am here!
I think those are very good points. Do you think one of those votes for LC is forced?
Yes. The only thing bothering me is that Long Con voted for Mister Reannager. Would he vote for a teammate?FZ. wrote:Tink, so you think LC is on the baddie team, and DF Chicks?
MM's vote seems fishy. I don't even remember him saying why he was voting LC. maybe he had to vote LC?FZ. wrote:What do you think? About everything I mean. Who do you think is bad?fingersplints wrote:I am here!
I think those are very good points. Do you think one of those votes for LC is forced?
Did you read what I wrote about MR voting for LC when DF had the same number of votes? So the question is not only would LC vote for a team mate, but would MR do the same when he had no reason to do so?Tink wrote:Yes. The only thing bothering me is that Long Con voted for Mister Reannager. Would he vote for a teammate?FZ. wrote:Tink, so you think LC is on the baddie team, and DF Chicks?
So do you think it makes him bad or not? Also, can you say why you've been less helpful this game?FZ. wrote:Did you read what I wrote about MR voting for LC when DF had the same number of votes? So the question is not only would LC vote for a team mate, but would MR do the same when he had no reason to do so?Tink wrote:Yes. The only thing bothering me is that Long Con voted for Mister Reannager. Would he vote for a teammate?FZ. wrote:Tink, so you think LC is on the baddie team, and DF Chicks?
I have never been forced to vote. Anyway, as I believe LC to be possibly Chicks I guess he is potentially handy to have around. So I'll vote elsewhere.FZ. wrote:I seriously doubt that LC is on MR's team. At the time MR had 3 votes, LC had one (Dom) and DF had one (Ambray). He chose to put his vote on LC. If they were working together, why not put his vote on DF? So if anyone was working with MR out of the two, it's DF.
So that leaves LC to possibly be Chicks, but I see nothing supporting it more than any other player for the moment, so I don't get the votes on LC. Which makes me very worried.
Also, I saw this role and I wonder, could he force people to vote what he wants them to vote?
Professor Z
Rewires cars to work for him. *Secret*
Why isn't anyone here when I finally am?
The people who I don't think belong to the lemons, are you, Tink LC and me, naturally. Which leaves: DF, Splints, MM and BR.Snow Dog wrote:I have never been forced to vote. Anyway, as I believe LC to be possibly Chicks I guess he is potentially handy to have around. So I'll vote elsewhere.FZ. wrote:I seriously doubt that LC is on MR's team. At the time MR had 3 votes, LC had one (Dom) and DF had one (Ambray). He chose to put his vote on LC. If they were working together, why not put his vote on DF? So if anyone was working with MR out of the two, it's DF.
So that leaves LC to possibly be Chicks, but I see nothing supporting it more than any other player for the moment, so I don't get the votes on LC. Which makes me very worried.
Also, I saw this role and I wonder, could he force people to vote what he wants them to vote?
Professor Z
Rewires cars to work for him. *Secret*
Why isn't anyone here when I finally am?
My biggest suspects are DF and BR.
FZ. wrote:The people who I don't think belong to the lemons, are you, Tink LC and me, naturally. Which leaves: DF, Splints, MM and BR.Snow Dog wrote:I have never been forced to vote. Anyway, as I believe LC to be possibly Chicks I guess he is potentially handy to have around. So I'll vote elsewhere.FZ. wrote:I seriously doubt that LC is on MR's team. At the time MR had 3 votes, LC had one (Dom) and DF had one (Ambray). He chose to put his vote on LC. If they were working together, why not put his vote on DF? So if anyone was working with MR out of the two, it's DF.
So that leaves LC to possibly be Chicks, but I see nothing supporting it more than any other player for the moment, so I don't get the votes on LC. Which makes me very worried.
Also, I saw this role and I wonder, could he force people to vote what he wants them to vote?
Professor Z
Rewires cars to work for him. *Secret*
Why isn't anyone here when I finally am?
My biggest suspects are DF and BR.
Splints, BR and DF voted for MR, and MM voted for BR that day. But he could have saved MR if he is a baddie, though maybe he couldn't be here. What hours is MM usually here?
Then, there's the question of Ambray's real identity. Do you think LC is lying about her being the real Lightning? Why would he do that? If he isn't lying, look at the people who voted for her:
MM, Dom, DF and BR. The same people we can not decide on. Hmm
Snow Dog wrote:FZ. wrote:If we didn't get any since, wouldn't that mean it's not him?Snow Dog wrote:I have never been forced to vote. Anyway, as I believe LC to be possibly Chicks I guess he is potentially handy to have around. So I'll vote elsewhere.FZ. wrote:I seriously doubt that LC is on MR's team. At the time MR had 3 votes, LC had one (Dom) and DF had one (Ambray). He chose to put his vote on LC. If they were working together, why not put his vote on DF? So if anyone was working with MR out of the two, it's DF.
So that leaves LC to possibly be Chicks, but I see nothing supporting it more than any other player for the moment, so I don't get the votes on LC. Which makes me very worried.
Also, I saw this role and I wonder, could he force people to vote what he wants them to vote?
Professor Z
Rewires cars to work for him. *Secret*
Why isn't anyone here when I finally am?
My biggest suspects are DF and BR.
The people who I don't think belong to the lemons, are you, Tink LC and me, naturally. Which leaves: DF, Splints, MM and BR.
Splints, BR and DF voted for MR, and MM voted for BR that day. But he could have saved MR if he is a baddie, though maybe he couldn't be here. What hours is MM usually here?
Then, there's the question of Ambray's real identity. Do you think LC is lying about her being the real Lightning? Why would he do that? If he isn't lying, look at the people who voted for her:
MM, Dom, DF and BR. The same people we can not decide on. Hmm
It's a pickle, no doubt about it. I've been looking at the polls and it's hard to pin anyone down.
I have a feeling MM is civ. Because as soon as BWT was rezzed we had a message from a character we hadn't previously had one from. Or since worringly.
Are you asking yourself this?FZ. wrote:So do you think it makes him bad or not? Also, can you say why you've been less helpful this game?FZ. wrote:Did you read what I wrote about MR voting for LC when DF had the same number of votes? So the question is not only would LC vote for a team mate, but would MR do the same when he had no reason to do so?Tink wrote:Yes. The only thing bothering me is that Long Con voted for Mister Reannager. Would he vote for a teammate?FZ. wrote:Tink, so you think LC is on the baddie team, and DF Chicks?
MM replaced bwt so is likely a civvie. MM is usually around later I believe. I'd have to look at when DF and BR voted.FZ. wrote:The people who I don't think belong to the lemons, are you, Tink LC and me, naturally. Which leaves: DF, Splints, MM and BR.Snow Dog wrote:I have never been forced to vote. Anyway, as I believe LC to be possibly Chicks I guess he is potentially handy to have around. So I'll vote elsewhere.FZ. wrote:I seriously doubt that LC is on MR's team. At the time MR had 3 votes, LC had one (Dom) and DF had one (Ambray). He chose to put his vote on LC. If they were working together, why not put his vote on DF? So if anyone was working with MR out of the two, it's DF.
So that leaves LC to possibly be Chicks, but I see nothing supporting it more than any other player for the moment, so I don't get the votes on LC. Which makes me very worried.
Also, I saw this role and I wonder, could he force people to vote what he wants them to vote?
Professor Z
Rewires cars to work for him. *Secret*
Why isn't anyone here when I finally am?
My biggest suspects are DF and BR.
Splints, BR and DF voted for MR, and MM voted for BR that day. But he could have saved MR if he is a baddie, though maybe he couldn't be here. What hours is MM usually here?
Then, there's the question of Ambray's real identity. Do you think LC is lying about her being the real Lightning? Why would he do that? If he isn't lying, look at the people who voted for her:
MM, Dom, DF and BR. The same people we can not decide on. Hmm