Summer Sh*t Day 5

[sig]

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

Okay just read this and I do see some of the points.


I’ll give Pyxxy a quick ISO and see if I agree with you here. I’d be willing to push Dennis off a phase depending on what I see.


Final 3 would maybe include Pyxxy after this read but like I said I wanna check him first

[potentialsheltervet]

Pyxxy I have no super strong feels either way, but somewhere along the line I decided I was townreading him

Can you try to remember why?

[sig]

I’m also not changing my read no matter what anyone says I was right last game and was ignored and he flipped mafia. So I’m sticking to my read unless there’s a green check which doesn’t exist

Okay well, would you please at minimum review his conduct when it was tied between him and Six and report back?

Will do 🫡

[potentialsheltervet]

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

Okay just read this and I do see some of the points.


I’ll give Pyxxy a quick ISO and see if I agree with you here. I’d be willing to push Dennis off a phase depending on what I see.


Final 3 would maybe include Pyxxy after this read but like I said I wanna check him first

I'm used to having reactions that sadly don't exist over here, but this pleases me greatly.

[sig]

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

Okay just read this and I do see some of the points.


I’ll give Pyxxy a quick ISO and see if I agree with you here. I’d be willing to push Dennis off a phase depending on what I see.


Final 3 would maybe include Pyxxy after this read but like I said I wanna check him first

I'm used to having reactions that sadly don't exist over here, but this pleases me greatly.

Not quite sure I get what you mean by this?

[potentialsheltervet]

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

Okay just read this and I do see some of the points.


I’ll give Pyxxy a quick ISO and see if I agree with you here. I’d be willing to push Dennis off a phase depending on what I see.


Final 3 would maybe include Pyxxy after this read but like I said I wanna check him first

I'm used to having reactions that sadly don't exist over here, but this pleases me greatly.

Not quite sure I get what you mean by this?

If I had reactions I would "heart eyes" your response here. The willingness to re-eval delights me.

[sig]

[VOTE: ] aubergine

but honestly, full transparency, right now i am kind of feeling like the exact way to win the game is to eliminate me, pyxxy, and sig in whatever order. i struggle to see any of the other names being mafia right now, and my reasons to townread them feel good to me

so if anyone here thinks that im misclearing any of ted/neon/psv/dennis, then i really need you to speak up and help me see it

I pretty much endorse this

I just skimmed all your posts and I'm willing to order it:

sig -> pyxxy (myself) -> spf (yourself).....maybe psv?

mostly because I think it's important to create a very broad towncore and force the last scum to keep killing within it

this has partially been why I acted the way I did last day. I was pretty clear early on that I wanted real wagons, we got real wagons, and now Dennis is clear

truly though I do regret not being around for EOD D1, feels like me being null there is the biggest hinderance to solving my slot :/

So my biggest pause with voting off Pyxxy OR SPF is their willingness to order themselves into the voting order.

It’s very risky to do as mafia, but really easy to do as a town member since you can so easily get into the tunneling mindset of “I know I’m right so it won’t matter since we’ll win”


While a mafia member could maybe buy another phase or two this way, but assuming players follow the multi phase established plan they’re still gonna die. Especially in a simple game like this.


Which brings me to my big concern. We misvote me or Pyxxy today okay no big deal we go with the other next phase. Oops they’re also town.

That leave town with the impossible task in lylo of either voting for SPF which is what they should do or getting caught in that paradox of “only town would do this.”

So honestly I hate this play strategy since it seems like a loose loose to me

[sig]

Can i ask why we arent just following Kate since she was right both days? ...and then they killed her to boot.

honestly think this might be the way to go
sometimes you just have to sheep

unless someone gives a really compelling case on someone else

but like

Kate already got falcon killed

she always dies for that anyway, so I don't see how we can make the logical leap that she also died because she's right about SPF

or at least I would prefer if people did their own research on SPF

I'm not saying she died because she's right on SPF and that her death justifies pushing her legacy read because as you said, pushing Seanzie and falcon was enough to kill her

I just think there's a good chance she's right again because while I may not agree with some of the reasons she put forward for scumreading SPF, I didn't wasn't really convinced on falcon either (I'm just glad I didn't try to save them)

also since the rest of the team is Seanzie and falcon, I think SPF and Neon are the two people I can see killing Camilla N1 most over everyone else

Thoughts on Neon being the last mafia member

[sig]

Okay so I'm top wagon which is CRINGE but I'm still struggling to see why I'm being voted, unless it is purely my votes being bad and looking bus-like(which admittedly they are)

If someone could put that into like one post or something, that would be great

Currently I'd be down to chop like, psv/pyxxy/six is kind of my remaining poe

mfw someone's gonna call this a slip when I mean I can understand the perspective

This is a slip

Why did you vote PSV ( I don’t know who you ended on at this point) if you think Dennis slipped

[sig]

PSV, Dennis, SPF seem to be a good pool.

can u explain your concerns about PSV to me?

I retract said concerns at this point

[potentialsheltervet]

Okay so I'm top wagon which is CRINGE but I'm still struggling to see why I'm being voted, unless it is purely my votes being bad and looking bus-like(which admittedly they are)

If someone could put that into like one post or something, that would be great

Currently I'd be down to chop like, psv/pyxxy/six is kind of my remaining poe

mfw someone's gonna call this a slip when I mean I can understand the perspective

This is a slip

Why did you vote PSV ( I don’t know who you ended on at this point) if you think Dennis slipped

Not Neon but I'm pretty sure she was joking.

[potentialsheltervet]

In a perfect world, I'd use the last three elims for:
pyxxy > Neon > ??? I guess SPF

[sig]

Yea I don’t see Dennis being at all cleared from that EOD.

I think he’s reading as if he is TMI. Also this isn’t a tunnel read. I know when I’m tunneling and tunneling I am not.

While Dennis probably wouldn’t like to bus falcon was gone D2 regardless so I don’t think a counterpoint to him being town is that he wouldn’t bus.

Now in other news.

I’m now considering SPF, Neon, and Dennis. Neon is mainly based off Lemon’s reads.

I’m not seeing the case on pyxxy at all. I don’t see why they’d play the way they are as mafia

Ted/PSV are solid

So out of
Dennis
Neon
SPF

I think SPF looks the best my biggest or really only cause for concern here is I’ve seen them deep wolf and pocket everyone and that’s the same general vibe I’m getting this game. This is more paranoid though and with only 3 votes left I’d rather that not take over.

Neon is almost 100% based off lemon like I said above + I know they also bus and can get far as mafia. I have to do a reread of neon and check. The counterpoint here is I’m not really feeling that wagon and I’ve not really had them on my radar until lemon died.


That really leaves Dennis and I keep coming back to him. I don’t see any real reason to town read him.

Annnnnd if we wanna play the meta card I did just play with him as mafia like 1-2 months ago or so and did successfully call him out more recently (I subbed out of that game though)

[sig]

Also,

I’m not playing this game that Pyxxy and SPF are I don’t want to be voted off. I know I’m town and I think it’s silly to put yourself in the POE. It’s probably very towny, but still silly and counterproductive when push comes to shove

[sig]

@pyxxy what happened to the Dennis read from earlier in the game?

If I flip town who’s the last mafia member

[sig]

Also I 109% think Sean is running the night kill and likely coached/coaching Dennis so I’d say we should keep that in mind when discussing NK

[potentialsheltervet]

I can't wait until other people get here. Hmph.

[potentialsheltervet]

...no offense, Sig lol

[potentialsheltervet]

@Dennis When you can, please read Sig's most recent posts and give me a refreshed read on him.

[staypositivefriend]

Coming in and omgusing me isn't the best look in my opinion

Nah you’re playing within your scum meta and I’ve said that consistently since before your mentioned me and I voted their last phase.

You’re attempting to paint a picture that’s entirely inaccurate which only further fuels my suspicion that you’re mafia.

It also just makes sense from a wagonomics perspective. We had two wagons of players within the POE one got voted off and flipped civ. The next move isn’t to go and create two new wagons its to finish off the one we had and see how you flip

@sig - what is dennis's scum meta and how does it compare to this game? bcuza my impression is that dennis is playing differently from the scum meta ive seen from him

[staypositivefriend]

kicks thread violently
We need town consensus on sig and pyxxy. So @sig why dennis over pyxxy?
@Dennis why sig other than omgus?
Does anyone have strong reasons to town read pyxxy?
Does anyone have strong reasons to scum read sig?

There is zero reason to scum read Pyxxy at this time and plenty of reason to go for Dennis which I and others have consistently said.

At this point I’m confident he’s the last mafia member and if it isn’t him it’s likely SPF and that’s just because they’re still alive

seems clear from your catch-up so far that you havent read the post that i asked you to read tbh, since you're saying tha there is "zero reason to scumread pyxxy" as though i have not said those reasons multiple times

for example:

pyxxy

-it was kind of hard for me to come up with strong reasons to townread pyxxy in general

-pyxxy doesn’t have much of a visible progression on either seanzie or falcon. he was absent when seanzie got flashwagoned at the EOD1

-his shift from: “i find falcon scummy and think he’s in scum meta” to “im sheeping neon’s tr on falcon” on d2 is a bit abrupt, and it could very well be because seanzie died and pyxxy was trying to pivot away from having to distance from his other partner

-falcon and seanzie did not seem to interact with or acknowledge the existence of pyxxy much at all

the shift on falcon is the one that i find the most damning in particular - going from voicing serious concern and suspicion on falcon to abruptly deciding to sheep neon on falcon and then not talk about him again does not strike me as an organic progression

[staypositivefriend]

We have to vote off SPF next phase if we don’t hit mafia this phase it’s really that simple.

i agree, so you should consider reading my posts and working with me instead of smugly dismissing them lol

[staypositivefriend]

I’m not seeing the case on pyxxy at all. I don’t see why they’d play the way they are as mafia

so i may have spoken a bit too soon about you not reading my posts but it's not clear how you reached this conclusion about pyxxy after looking at my ~case~ on him. what do you not understand about it? what confuses you?

you need to understand that today is Do Or Die from my perspective, because i do think i should probably get eliminated tomorrow if we don't hit a wolf today, because i am absolutely NOT looking to get dragged to a f3 in this type of gamestate

so, it's important to me that i find the last mafia today, and i think that i may have, but when ppl disregard the case by saying they "don't see it" without elaborating further, it can be a bit baffling/frustrating

if youre still around between now and the EOD i would rlly appreciate if you went into more detail about your read on pyxxy in general

[staypositivefriend]

anyway i'm a bit hungover and grumpy today but here nonetheless if anyone wants to talk

[potentialsheltervet]

anyway i'm a bit hungover and grumpy today but here nonetheless if anyone wants to talk

What's your take on sig sussing neon?

[staypositivefriend]

Neon is almost 100% based off lemon like I said above + I know they also bus and can get far as mafia. I have to do a reread of neon and check. The counterpoint here is I’m not really feeling that wagon and I’ve not really had them on my radar until lemon died.

^^this only bothers me in the sense that sig's read on neon seems a little bit thoughtless. sig says that "neon can bus and get far as mafia", but how does a world where neon intended to bus and go deep square with the way she hard defended falcon throughout d2? how does it align with her overall approach this game in general?

it makes me paranoid that he is trying to throw neon back into the general POE because he perceives her as a necessary elimination to win the game

[staypositivefriend]

fwiw i am fairly confident that neon is not mafia

[tedxtr]

im exhausted, should be up some point tomorrow tho

hope eod is not in 1h

I’d vote pyxxy over sig any day. Idk how he’s being discussed for a lunch target

[tedxtr]

Voting pyxxy in case eod is in 1h

[staypositivefriend]

yeah i hope it just ends with pyxxy

[tedxtr]

Oh wow it really is in a few hours

Uh oh

[pyxxy]

hi sorry when i posted about 24 hours i was serioud and closed my browser tab and completely forgot about this game

uhhh I’ll have to find time but I might just not be here before EOD, sorry

[potentialsheltervet]

hi sorry when i posted about 24 hours i was serioud and closed my browser tab and completely forgot about this game

uhhh I’ll have to find time but I might just not be here before EOD, sorry

Oh well while you're here
Pick for last scum?

[tedxtr]

@pyxxy why are you voting sig?

[potentialsheltervet]

I get being busy but feels like rolling over. Not sure if that's more scum or town indicative for pyxxy or if it's just... Him

[staypositivefriend]

@potentialsheltervet - can u talk to me about why u fos neon?

[staypositivefriend]

I get being busy but feels like rolling over. Not sure if that's more scum or town indicative for pyxxy or if it's just... Him

yeah idk how to react to that

[potentialsheltervet]

@potentialsheltervet - can u talk to me about why u fos neon?

I just feel like I haven't seen as much to clear her as like Ted or Dennis, for example. So if someone's being miscleared I think it's her.
On the other hand I hope we vote out pyxxy and end the game today.

[potentialsheltervet]

Pyxxy telegraphing the night kills is... Behavior I don't know how to interpret.
Not that there are investigative or defensive roles to worry about but still... Why

[staypositivefriend]

starting to feel like a broken record but do u have any thoughts on the reasons i gave to townread neon 2 pages ago? i feel confident about her being town bcuz of that and i want the ppl who disagree to engage w/me

[pyxxy]

alright I'm out for today see y'all in 24 hours

I think you'll clear me if I just don't post

alright posted up in a cafe for now

I guess I was wrong about this :/

[pyxxy]

oh if it's not clear, I'm catching up, so I'll be replying as I come across things, I saw that I had like 4 tags, please have patience uwu >.<

(lmao that felt good to write)

[pyxxy]

but honestly, full transparency, right now i am kind of feeling like the exact way to win the game is to eliminate me, pyxxy, and sig in whatever order. i struggle to see any of the other names being mafia right now, and my reasons to townread them feel good to me

so if anyone here thinks that im misclearing any of ted/neon/psv/dennis, then i really need you to speak up and help me see it

nope my only waver is PSV

if I had to order for myself:
Neon - towncore
Dennis - strong townread
ted - townread

and mostly this is a "how much have I played with someone" list

(but I suspect the last scum feels that Dennis is the most obv town, thus my guess earlier that he's next to go......home from the summer camp trip)

talk more about PSV? why is she a waver compared to your other townreads?

very bad voting record + in the thread defended falcon hard while the wagon was starting (iirc?)

lack of experience playing with her

I was and am trying to form a very clear line between town and POE. ted was/is that line

[pyxxy]

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

I should say that I can be wrong town here. If y'all chop me today, then feel free to locktown PSV.

I'm going to fast but I should have added that yes Falcon also probably spewed PSV town _or_ more importantly _thought_ that he had and that's why I voted + pushed here

but that's WIFOM

and I'm messed up by putting PSV back in my POE which means that I wasn't able to do my "lol Blank will die tonight " to PSV which maybe was a better play yesterday instead of agreeing that Lemonfairy was the most clear

If I do die today I don't think anybody should feel bad because I'm in the POE and ultimately I'm not sure I feel more confident about chopping someone other than me, if that makes sense. but we'll see as I catch up

[pyxxy]

sig could be a wolf but he is showing a lack of any real self preservation intent by pushing on dennis

pyxxy had a progression on falcon throughout d1 and d2 that is very easy to see as a wolf awkwardly shifting their positioning once their other partner (seanzie) died, and his solving has felt the least sincere to me compared to my other townreads

so, willing to have my mind changed, willing to discuss it further, but that's where im at


that's the reason why I really want people to engage with my thoughts today, because if I'm wrong, I need help figuring out where

(the following argument only works if you don't know me)

If I'm scum, then why I don't I try harder to keep falcon alive D2?

I'm POE'd by then because of missing EOD D1 so like I feel like I should have been forced to 1) actively defend falcon and/or 2) hard push another wagon (which I kinda did with Dennis)

(if you do know me then you know that I don't have strong thread pull as either alignment and so the idea of me accomplishing either of these things is )

[pyxxy]

@pyxxy why are you voting sig?

he's POE and I decided to clear Dennis

generally absent from the thread a la myself

good enough to bus falcon and try to win solo

[pyxxy]

@pyxxy If you're town, your absence isn't going to convince anyone to move off of you. Come back and be towny.

*squints*

[pyxxy]

Coming in and omgusing me isn't the best look in my opinion

Nah you’re playing within your scum meta and I’ve said that consistently since before your mentioned me and I voted their last phase.

You’re attempting to paint a picture that’s entirely inaccurate which only further fuels my suspicion that you’re mafia.

It also just makes sense from a wagonomics perspective. We had two wagons of players within the POE one got voted off and flipped civ. The next move isn’t to go and create two new wagons its to finish off the one we had and see how you flip

.....so I guess I am misclearing Dennis

[pyxxy]

Also,

I’m not playing this game that Pyxxy and SPF are I don’t want to be voted off. I know I’m town and I think it’s silly to put yourself in the POE. It’s probably very towny, but still silly and counterproductive when push comes to shove

ah now _this_ is spicy

[pyxxy]

@pyxxy what happened to the Dennis read from earlier in the game?

If I flip town who’s the last mafia member

You kinda dropped it with just the "yes" and I found Dennis' EOD towny after me randing it.

I'm willing to WIFOM that Dennis kept talking because he's the last scum and so there was no town fear of maybe breaking the rules + he was ready to "ggs"