Fargo Mafia [Game Ends]

[BoKnows]

I'm gonna hard town read spf, jjj, mac and filter three game through them

What do you mean by filter three game through them?

the

Ahhh say less

I'm gonna hard town read spf, jjj, mac and filter three game through them

What do you mean by filter three game through them?

the, not three

Ahhh say less

literally none of tutuus reads feel real to me and they're both static but extremely volatile, idk how but I don't like that either

I'm beginning to feel the same way. Also of thought/explanations isn't very comforting.

Uh oh, you're gonna make her sad face I bet

well that's what u get when your reasoning is "idk" for a lot of your actions.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think KZA's recent play has seemed decent. I want to keep the standards high here so I'm still thinking on that read.

I don't think I am comfortable with BoKnows, and post count doesn't move me much.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who's here right now?

[BoKnows]

I think KZA's recent play has seemed decent. I want to keep the standards high here so I'm still thinking on that read.

I don't think I am comfortable with BoKnows, and post count doesn't move me much.

Well that sounds like a good enough reason to keep me in your PoE

[Justplayingitcool]

This is why I am working with a POE pool of 9 players:

Spoiler: show

I'd like to determine an ideal POE pool target size. 22 players presents some awkward alignment ratios, so it's difficult to project. For now I am ignoring talk of multiple mafia teams and operating under the assumption there is only one. If so, I see three arrangements that could be reasonably plausible:

a) 16:4:1:1
b) 16:5:1
c) 17:5

The correct answer, if it's any of those, is dependent upon role strength. I have no idea. I think a safe starting point would be to work with (b) -- I'd expect at least one third party faction, and most hosts seem to favor ratios closer to 3:1 than to 4:1, for better or for worse. So on that basis:

5 mafia, 17 non-mafia

In a world with normal killing pace and a non-hostile independent, that'd set up 5 mischops allowable before MiCho/ChoLo. That would demand a POE pool of 10 (5 mafia + 5 mischops). I'm going to reduce that to 9 immediately in anticipation of at least some non-standard night phase killing power.

So my efforts are to get to a comfortable POE pool of 9, or at least as close as I can. That will be an ambitious undertaking, because it requires removing 12 not-JJJs from the mafia pool. I probably won't be able to manage that confidently, but the effort should still be a net positive if it can be reasonably attempted.

Who's in your group of 9?

I just asked myself "which 9 do I feel least comfortable calling town?" and ended up with 10:

AL_sama
BoKnows
Dom
JPIC
KZA
Long Con
Marmot
Michelle
tedxtr
Tony

This reflects most previous lists. Michelle returns after being out briefly just for lack of content. I am presently working through my mental conception of the game to determine if/where any swaps are necessary. Next one in is probably SPF.

Who would you remove out of that list to condense to nine ( to fit your aim) & why?

Why is ted on ur list?

[tutuu]

I think KZA's recent play has seemed decent. I want to keep the standards high here so I'm still thinking on that read.

I don't think I am comfortable with BoKnows, and post count doesn't move me much.

high standards seems subjective unless u define it in a way im not thinking of

i dont think kza playing the way he played is low quality

i dont think making big "analytical" posts is inherently better, at the end i find the only objective meter of success accuracy. if ur accurate and/or people find u as town is what i think the metric for high standard is, how u get there is irrelevant unless its making people really unhappy which i wouldnt attribute to this case

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who would you remove out of that list to condense to nine ( to fit your aim) & why?

Why is ted on ur list?

If I had to do it immediately, Michelle. I have no convincing evidence off-hand or intuitions suggesting ted is a civilian.

[Justplayingitcool]

Who would you remove out of that list to condense to nine ( to fit your aim) & why?

Why is ted on ur list?

If I had to do it immediately, Michelle. I have no convincing evidence off-hand or intuitions suggesting ted is a civilian.

Did u have any thoughts on the read i provided in regards to ted?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think KZA's recent play has seemed decent. I want to keep the standards high here so I'm still thinking on that read.

I don't think I am comfortable with BoKnows, and post count doesn't move me much.

high standards seems subjective unless u define it in a way im not thinking of

i dont think kza playing the way he played is low quality

i dont think making big "analytical" posts is inherently better, at the end i find the only objective meter of success accuracy. if ur accurate and/or people find u as town is what i think the metric for high standard is, how u get there is irrelevant unless its making people really unhappy which i wouldnt attribute to this case

"quality of post" isn't really what I mean, but rather "actual interpretations of posts that aren't more generous than they should be under the circumstances". I try to avoid snapping from one extreme to another unless I am really moved by something, and I don't feel that yet in this case.

[tutuu]

ooh okiii

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who would you remove out of that list to condense to nine ( to fit your aim) & why?

Why is ted on ur list?

If I had to do it immediately, Michelle. I have no convincing evidence off-hand or intuitions suggesting ted is a civilian.

Did u have any thoughts on the read i provided in regards to ted?

Let me refresh myself.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@staypositivefriend

what do you think about the way your earlier voters moved off you

honestly there's way too much random posting rn that's so tangential I can't actually work through it atm and my current opinion is just lynch into them so I'm starting with tsp like mac suggested

plus he's been scummy

I never voted for SPF

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Jay is definitely try harding, whether you think that's mafia or not...ymmv

What does “ymmv” mean?

Your Mileage May Vary

Basically means "this is what I think but draw your own conclusions"

[fingersplints]

Who's here right now?

I’m around; kid 1 is asleep now so just relaxing before bed.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

General notes and observations:

Spoiler: show

• I don't like @KZA saying tutuu is fake as justification for voting for her. Feels like a weak case.

• TSP claiming that JJJ is scum, then immediately giving a tepid 'well maybe not idk' response when challenged. If @TonyStarkPrime is town, I see it as a failed provocation to get JJJ to defend himself. If TSP is scum, I see it as a failed cast of a line to see if anyone would help start a bandwagon. Wild speculation here, on my part, but this moment stands out to me.

• @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME saying he agrees because JJJ won't townread him is reminiscent of overconfident scum.

• I don't know @KZA, but this reaction to TSP's read reads as earnest.

• The @Marmot's posts here and the one two posts after it feel weird. I'm not volume-shaming at all, but the linked post reads like a totally needless justification for not engaging much with D1. The latter post, asking about multiball, feels the weirdest. After 20 pages of discussion where there are plenty of cases already gaining traction, including JJJ voting for him as of then, why go back into setup speculation?

• @BoKnows has an interesting waffling moment starting here, with a 'good vibes read' on the Marmot Later, @Alison points out an exchange between the Marmot and KZA as 'insipid and wolfy', and four minutes later BoKnows says, he no longer has good vibes from Marmot and it was just based on his pfp anyway. Scum distancing himself from a scummate?

• I for sure perked my eyebrow at @tedxtr's Oddmerta vote, but I really didn't like the almost immediate and admitted bandwagoning by @Esooa. She went from gut town-lean to gut scum-lean in an instant. Esooa is sticking to this vote, which makes me even more suspicious.

Reads on vote leaders:

• @Oddmerta is for sure casting scumreads without much backup, if any at all. I'm not sure which JPIC post he says he didn't like, nor am I sure that this post in question is his reason for voting JPIC. That said, I learned early on in my mafia days that lack of elaboration ≠ necessarily being anti-town. I'm interested in what Oddmerta has to say, but I'm not convinced of the scumreads on him yet.

• @KZA is also a case I can understand, but it's another that I don't really buy. I myself have been very self-defensive in past games as a power-roled town, because I saw myself as valuable. I still don't like KZA's take/vote on tutuu, but everything else reads as pretty earnest.

Current (mostly gut) reads (each tier is roughly in order, reasons for the scum-leans are in the notes/observations above)
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay
falcon
MacDougall
Sloonei
tutuu
SPF
Oddmerta
Michelle
fingersplints
Dom
TSP
tedxtr
Long Con
nanook
JPIC
KZA
Esooa
Marmot
BoKnows

Off Topic

Hold the fuck up. There's a 'siren' button. Did...did I inspire this? If you say yes, I will cry.

I'm known for being flippant

You'll note i also declined to vote him and in fact even said he's probably town

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Who's here right now?

I’m around; kid 1 is asleep now so just relaxing before bed.

Lucky

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@JaggedJimmyJay @Alison @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME kza town we were wrong

Meh don't think the thing you quoted from him makes him town

[JaggedJimmyJay]

ted - defended me in thread so it could be a bad read by me and he has pocketed me. However, i contrast his two games of his from my memory. In GoC, he tried to take charge and and wasn’t really suspected all game only for mech to out him. In MtG, he was heavily sussed all game and was a misyeet pretty early. I feel like it’s the same here

This isn't a kind of read where I would want to rely on meta. "What happened between exactly tedxtr and exactly JPIC in other games?" is a bit too specific to be relied on when assessing the present game I think. Still, that doesn't mean you're at the wrong conclusion. Let me pull up ted's treatment of you. I don't remember it well.

Spoiler: show

anyway, guess i should make some reads

read # 1 - jpic town on toan alone

this one's gonna get people riled up, i can tell

anyway, guess i should make some reads

read # 1 - jpic town on toan alone

this one's gonna get people riled up, i can tell

Okay, so how does JPIC's tone give you town vibes?

Also, not really digging your phrasing, 'guess I should make some reads,' as if you're feeling obligated to look town.

you're right, but i don't see how that's wolfy. ime if you don't make reads / contribute to the game in any way you're gonna get voted - it's the syndicate special, vote for the slankers (but only when they're town)

and it'd be a bit tough for me to really pinpoint it - tutuu had a post on it that i felt was an ok explanation even though that's not the entire thing. it mostly just seems like he has an idea about the game / is reading it + he has his own thought processes in the back of his mind. i can see the gears spinning when he asks questions, drawing lines, connecting dots etc etc

it feels like he's extremely comfortable too - which is a tough job to pull off in a playerlist like this, you can take a look at his last game for reference where i think the difference is pretty stark.

Click here for big multiquote post

elite reads : jpic saying "again" in two posts back to back when defending himself is dat villager RAGE being suppressed

and besides - there's a possibility tutuu straight up spewed jpic a villager here since she's making a few wolfy posts

If I assess the what alone -- what did tedxtr do? he defended JPIC -- this means nothing to me. Anyone can defend anyone. So instead I am concerned with the how. If tedxtr is a mafioso, these posts would make me think JPIC is a civilian by way of TMI. Do I think ted promoted his reads in a manner suggestive of TMI? Not necessarily -- it's an interpretation available to me that I could buy, but it's not a standout or glaring thing. I don't struggle much to believe that these could be real reads either. If I want to nitpick, the orange highlighted thing doesn't add much and stretches a vague one line read into a vague three sentence read. The green thing about tutuu is irrelevant to me at this point.

Basically this doesn't make me suspect tedxtr more, @Justplayingitcool. I wouldn't be comfortable saying it makes him town either though.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Kza overreacted to nothing burger votes on him and went straight to "guess ill die" mode, he's probably mafia

Somebody should vig me to remove this hazardous slot

Cut it out.


We've already got 1 NIK running around, we don't need another one.

well you scumread me so you should be okay with my suggestion

Get over it, I scum read lots of people.


What's your take on Nanook? I've got my own thoughts, I'm curious how they line up with yours

Look if that quote doesn't lock him as Mafia I don't know what to say

Well now I'm just gonna keep omgus tunneling

[KZA]

Kza overreacted to nothing burger votes on him and went straight to "guess ill die" mode, he's probably mafia

Somebody should vig me to remove this hazardous slot

Cut it out.


We've already got 1 NIK running around, we don't need another one.

well you scumread me so you should be okay with my suggestion

Get over it, I scum read lots of people.


What's your take on Nanook? I've got my own thoughts, I'm curious how they line up with yours

Look if that quote doesn't lock him as Mafia I don't know what to say

Well now I'm just gonna keep omgus tunneling

excellent it's mutual!

WEEEEOOOOOOOOEEEE NOOKIE NOOK SPOOKY WOOOOO

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

[fingersplints]

I think KZA's recent play has seemed decent. I want to keep the standards high here so I'm still thinking on that read.

I don't think I am comfortable with BoKnows, and post count doesn't move me much.

I really don’t like post count arguments. Especially in a game with high spam content.
And how do you rate it when some people post single sentences while others post whole paragraphs.
Maybe I’m biased as a “low poster”. Quality over quantity I’ve always said

[KZA]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: AL_sama] aubergine

Just seems like a decent candidate when I stare at my POE. Their reads on tutuu and Oddmerta look a bit cooked.

I think Al_sama is probably mafia but they are not who I want to be killing day 1.

can you expand on this??

Your read on Oddmerta felt fake. I don't super love pushing new people or people who appear to be easy chops d1 tho.

[MacDougall]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

Scrotal seam

[KZA]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

Scrotal seam

I was in the right ballpark

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what’s his mafia motivation?

[MacDougall]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

Scrotal seam

I was in the right ballpark

Heh

[MacDougall]

Odd, you honestly think that scum like to vote together in a situation like this?

Why would that be a thing? What logic are you supposedly employing here? This is suspicious.

This feels like fur.

[MacDougall]

If you guys wanna see 2 beautiful players talking about themselves and how great they are, please look no further than Mac & JJJ.


They are strikingly handsome, watching their banter is like staring at an Adonis smothered hot, steaming fabulous.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[MacDougall]

My first instinct is that Long Con is doing that incredulous town thing where you dismiss an idea that sounds unlikely on the surface even if it really isn't farfetched. I probably won't take that read anywhere though, because it's tiny and weak. Long Con told me not to force it.

*twitches*

[MacDougall]

To be fair I tend to think wagon formations and "wagonomics" and those sorts of things are not nearly as useful as they'd need to be to justify how often they are assessed. I just don't care much about that kind of stuff.

Generally speaking LC is correct. More often than not, particularly early in the game Mafia teammates are compelled to not be voting side by side naked. It's a common enough trope that in the absence of anything overwhelmingly pointing to the contrary it would be ok to view the pair as likely unaligned. I think him reaching for it as a defense in the way he did came off a little pleading for LC. It kinda TMI'd Oddmerta. His pleading was too earnest.

[Sloonei]

kids these days are too eager to catch the bad guys.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what’s his mafia motivation?

Do you think I give a single fuck about things like "mafia motivation" ??

Its a stupid question

[MacDougall]

In the last game we played, Bee Mafia, two mafia voted together for their third mafia member Day 1. This allowed them to win.

I’m not saying this is exactly the same situation, but I definitely am rethinking what “mafia wouldn’t do” after that game.

Howdy splints, would you be willing to throw together a reads list for everyone, or at least name a top 3-5 town and top 3-5 mafia? It would help to frame your current view of business.

I still got lots of pages to catch up on, but I’ll definitely try to get to it today because I think I probably have a lot of neutrals still, so looking at the list might help me.

I’m very slow today. It was a horrible night for me and today has been blah

This post is usually made by a wolf.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what’s his mafia motivation?

Do you think I give a single fuck about things like "mafia motivation" ??

Its a stupid question

Why was KZA’s behavior suspicious to you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be fair I tend to think wagon formations and "wagonomics" and those sorts of things are not nearly as useful as they'd need to be to justify how often they are assessed. I just don't care much about that kind of stuff.

Generally speaking LC is correct. More often than not, particularly early in the game Mafia teammates are compelled to not be voting side by side naked. It's a common enough trope that in the absence of anything overwhelmingly pointing to the contrary it would be ok to view the pair as likely unaligned. I think him reaching for it as a defense in the way he did came off a little pleading for LC. It kinda TMI'd Oddmerta. His pleading was too earnest.

Could be. The reason I didn’t do anything with the post you twitched at is it’s not hard to see LC’s comments there as being caught for the wrong reasons. So sure

[staypositivefriend]

@staypositivefriend

what do you think about the way your earlier voters moved off you

honestly there's way too much random posting rn that's so tangential I can't actually work through it atm and my current opinion is just lynch into them so I'm starting with tsp like mac suggested

plus he's been scummy

the entire dynamic surrounding me was bizarre - there was a large concentration of pressure/suspicion built primarily off of conjecture, and then the pressure completely evaporated when i gave the slightest pushback. i don't know what to make of it, to be honest

marmot was the person that i found the most suspicious during that entire dynamic - i felt that he jumped in to make a post that signal boosted the suspicion against me (and tutuu) without actually showing an interest in finding a wolf between us

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@KZA why is that Nanook post so bad?

1. I am death tunnelling him
2. He implies "guess I'll die" is scummy then brushed me off when I asked what my wolf motivation is there
3. He is mafia
4. He's Maf with OddMerta I decided because he randomly spit that post in to the thread after Odd got some votes
5. Mac said that post gave him ball cancer and I believe in Mac at the moment

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what’s his mafia motivation?

Do you think I give a single fuck about things like "mafia motivation" ??

Its a stupid question

Why was KZA’s behavior suspicious to you

It wasn't really tbh, but I think his response to the barest amount of pressure looked/looks scummy

[MacDougall]

Read a little and the two people on my wagon did not explain their vote on me. Little bit annoying but whatever.

@Long Con
@Justplayingitcool
explain please!

Those two be me scumreads

Oh yeah, the "Long Con vocalized his non-elimination vote" case.

And now you are voting the same as one of my other scumreads, the evidence is mounting

Who was the person voting with LC at the time?

[MacDougall]

I would agree with Oddmerta's take that LC was scummy off his entrance. I think I vocalised as much very early in the game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let’s have a go.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

[MacDougall]

Spoiler: show

Town reads
falcon
Mac
Sloonei
Strawhenge

Semi-town reads
SPF
fingersplints
Alison
Nanook

In flux maybe town reads
Michelle
Esooa
tutuu

Defer to others "town read"
Oddmerta

POE pool
KZA
Long Con
Dom
Marmot
Tony
JPIC
BoKnows
Al_Sama
tedxtr

~~~

Which read(s) in the spoiler am I wrong about, gang?

Now THERES the syndicate POE

What does this mean?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

At face value KZA’s and Nanook’s suspicion of each other is utterly uninteresting to me.

[Sloonei]

Teamwork is a virtue. Sometimes when someone you think is town is giving confident support to someone else, it's prudent to honor that at least for a time in the absence of truly powerful suspicion. I don't think any point raised against Oddmerta the last couple pages is a convincing one. I don't share Alison's confidence, but for the time being I am willing to respect her read. It's also Sloonei's read and tutuu's read and Mac's read and perhaps Nanook's read I can't remember.

The only read I've expressed RE: oddmerta this game is that he is silly town.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Oddmerta] aubergine

What are you doing?

Playing Fargo Mafia... What are you doing?

Lol I dont like this post. I do like Oddmerta here tho.

[MacDougall]

At face value KZA’s and Nanook’s suspicion of each other is utterly uninteresting to me.

Jay you're Jaying a bit too hard lol. Relax buddeh.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Teamwork is a virtue. Sometimes when someone you think is town is giving confident support to someone else, it's prudent to honor that at least for a time in the absence of truly powerful suspicion. I don't think any point raised against Oddmerta the last couple pages is a convincing one. I don't share Alison's confidence, but for the time being I am willing to respect her read. It's also Sloonei's read and tutuu's read and Mac's read and perhaps Nanook's read I can't remember.

The only read I've expressed RE: oddmerta this game is that he is silly town.

Right I mean you’re pro-Oddmerta i.e. no votey

[MacDougall]

This game feels like Jay and I are mafia teammates. I wonder if anyone has made that observation yet.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

At face value KZA’s and Nanook’s suspicion of each other is utterly uninteresting to me.

Outside of the omgus tunnel jokes I do actually think he's >rand mafia