The Syndicate

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm What would I hate more:

voting in the East and losing because we followed an unsubstantiated belief about mech despite my misgivings

or

voting in the West and losing because obviously it was evenly split wolf teams and I just haaad to go renegade

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:17 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:16 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?

You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.

You say 'why not say it before hand' like it's some sort of 'gotcha' and I think it's just a style difference or soemthing. I just don't see why I'd need to say it?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.

Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.

But, again, we're talking about a wolf team of two, since the other wolf team won't care or worry about the same voting dynamics. Lime was going down - their one single partner is probably more likely to bus and hope for some credit rather than risk being seen as trying to save their partner.


These just feel like weak reasons to find me suspicious, and I'm not saying that makes you scummy because actually if you're town you would be scrounging for reasons to paint me scummy. But you seem to have a lot of conviction it's me for reasoning like this and the reasoning isn't solid imo.

Aye, there is a lot of conviction, but that's because I've only had good results following clear cut wagonomics lines like these, especially when there's 1-2 wolves hiding within them.

I kinda hate that expanding the PoE feels correct, because it also makes me think that my observation of the wagonomics can be wrong.

I also kinda hate expanding the PoE because that's the exact thing that made us lose severance.

But, with you and Nut advocating for it and Nook was also still casing West while alive, the question of "is it more likely that it's just MR/Nut, or DOES the PoE need to actually grow?" becomes very difficult.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:20 pm FWIW I think last time I saw Delta play like this they were 3p.

Very 3p rangey rn I think.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:21 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:17 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:16 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?

You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.

You say 'why not say it before hand' like it's some sort of 'gotcha' and I think it's just a style difference or soemthing. I just don't see why I'd need to say it?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.

Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.

But, again, we're talking about a wolf team of two, since the other wolf team won't care or worry about the same voting dynamics. Lime was going down - their one single partner is probably more likely to bus and hope for some credit rather than risk being seen as trying to save their partner.


These just feel like weak reasons to find me suspicious, and I'm not saying that makes you scummy because actually if you're town you would be scrounging for reasons to paint me scummy. But you seem to have a lot of conviction it's me for reasoning like this and the reasoning isn't solid imo.

Aye, there is a lot of conviction, but that's because I've only had good results following clear cut wagonomics lines like these, especially when there's 1-2 wolves hiding within them.

I kinda hate that expanding the PoE feels correct, because it also makes me think that my observation of the wagonomics can be wrong.

I also kinda hate expanding the PoE because that's the exact thing that made us lose severance.

But, with you and Nut advocating for it and Nook was also still casing West while alive, the question of "is it more likely that it's just MR/Nut, or DOES the PoE need to actually grow?" becomes very difficult.

I mean, Nook's PoE consisted of Nutella and you, and then whoever voted Porscha in West, but idk if I'd treat those as godreads. He did have some correct calls but I don't necessarily think he was correct on absolutely everything.
It's possible he knew something else was up with West and he just couldn't claim it, but I kinda doubt that since he was just making a broad sweep on the basis that Porscha was locktown (and he said as much in East thread, too, when the threads were still split and we didn't know Porscha had flipped or was going to flip)

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:27 pm "*genuine in thought.

Not just a means to expand the PoE"

Incomplete thought.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:35 pm If I vote Nutella right now I could make it a three-way tie which is a big funny
And someone else could vote me too so we have all Easterners tied :P
Jokes aside, I don't want the day to end on a tie but we really need to just pick someone to vote out
I can volunteer if you want my flip
I just think we're treading water rather than making progress, and the worry I have is that if we keep this up until eod, West Facility has complete control over which of us from East flips. Which might not be a bad thing, as they likely have a higher town ratio, even if they aren't all town. But we're the ones with more knowledge of each other's game so far, because we've been in the East Facility together, and yet we haven't consolidated our votes.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:28 pm I just went "ooh, cards" and didn't think further than that lmao

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:45 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:28 pm I just went "ooh, cards" and didn't think further than that lmao

This nearly made me send bourbon through my nose.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:51 pm And I guess fungus crossed on Davos not being an actual player we need to deal with.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:13 pm Look, in theory (a very questionable theory) we should just shoot into the East and have a 50% chance of hitting correctly.

But if we hit a town (and I can't help but feel we will) then the survivors need to abandon the idea of wolves only being there.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:04 pm maybe it's davos lol

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:24 pm I'd actually expect the last wolves to play like 3ps or town because of the whole thing where they do have to solve each other in order to eliminate each other
But I also feel like Delta has even fallen a bit short of that, because he's doing things at his own pace without an urgency to solve
And I'd expect the wolves to be desperate enough by now that they'd want to actually solve
Idk, I guess from their pov they would still want a town misyeet or two before taking each other out cause it would be easier to reach parity, given that there's only one wolf on each team (if even distribution)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:15 pm I'm not staying up to watch myself die.

As far as a legacy goes:

-We're trying to use mechanics to narrow the PoE and we don't even know the mechanics. This is bad.
-We're focusing on vote counts and partner associations when a wolf only had one single partner for a pivotal part of the game when everyone was jostling for position. This means conventional reads are invalid because the usual dynamics (splitting packmates onto different wagons, where one places their mates in their readslists, etc) don't exist. (Side note: I actually hate small games (like 9p) more than multiball for this reason.) This is also bad.

Keep it simple tomorrow.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine


Good night and good luck.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:15 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:24 pm I'd actually expect the last wolves to play like 3ps or town because of the whole thing where they do have to solve each other in order to eliminate each other
But I also feel like Delta has even fallen a bit short of that, because he's doing things at his own pace without an urgency to solve
And I'd expect the wolves to be desperate enough by now that they'd want to actually solve
Idk, I guess from their pov they would still want a town misyeet or two before taking each other out cause it would be easier to reach parity, given that there's only one wolf on each team (if even distribution)

This is where my heart comes in over my head.

Delta is a good teammate. I should know.

Delta has been rather lackluster here, and I think Delta would be letting his team down if he indeed had one.

(FYI, if you're a civilian Delta, you DO HAVE ONE )

But yeah.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:22 pm Radishes is right, though, we've had a Landlord floating around for a while without a partner I guess

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:38 pm @Epignosis @Delta and even @Davos
I want you all to vote GTH who you currently believe is most likely to flip wolf.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:26 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

7v1v1 is 7 civilians and 1 mafia member per team left.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:29 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:26 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

7v1v1 is 7 civilians and 1 mafia member per team left.

Oh, derp
Ignore me I thought someone mentioned 3ps

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:29 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:26 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

7v1v1 is 7 civilians and 1 mafia member per team left.

Oh, derp
Ignore me I thought someone mentioned 3ps

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:28 pm WWA why is it you keep offering yourself up as a vote? ?_?

I can understand the thought about your facility having the wolves, but surely from that standpoint - assuming its accurate? - you should be able to work down the list of potential wolves pretty well. Instead you keep saying 'oh if you guys need you can flip me first'

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:30 pm I dunno, if your thoughts are 'my facility has all the wolves' you're sat with a much narrower POE and should be able to navigate it over offering yourself, which would then give the opposite impression to 'wolves are all in this facility'

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:33 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:30 pm I dunno, if your thoughts are 'my facility has all the wolves' you're sat with a much narrower POE and should be able to navigate it over offering yourself, which would then give the opposite impression to 'wolves are all in this facility'

When I said that, I just assumed if my facility has all the wolves and we yeet all of the people in my facility, including me, we are guaranteed a win.

I don't particularly like entertaining paranoia about the West facility but I also don't want to be the one who loses us the game by insisting that we yeet everyone in East including myself.

So idk anymore.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:33 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:30 pm I dunno, if your thoughts are 'my facility has all the wolves' you're sat with a much narrower POE and should be able to navigate it over offering yourself, which would then give the opposite impression to 'wolves are all in this facility'

When I said that, I just assumed if my facility has all the wolves and we yeet all of the people in my facility, including me, we are guaranteed a win.

I don't particularly like entertaining paranoia about the West facility but I also don't want to be the one who loses us the game by insisting that we yeet everyone in East including myself.

So idk anymore.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:39 pm I think TSP talked more about cards this phase than people.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:41 pm The power's back on, just in time for EoD. Let me know if anything happened I should focus on.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:39 pm I felt confident earlier that we would win this game, regardless of whether I get yeeted today or not, because I was shutting out any paranoia about uneven wolf distributions. So I wasn't concerned at all with it, and I figured I had it coming after I pushed Nook way harder than anyone else yesterday. But as I said before, it's kinda opened a can of worms now and there is not only a danger that we yeet all of East when there might be a wolf in West, but there is also a danger that all the wolves really are in East but we go for someone in West and lose the game that way.