The Syndicate

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:39 pm**

Bleh I hate hammerless xD

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:40 pm**

I already wondered why JJJ ignored Martin and me when we voted for moto the other day. It all comes together.

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:42 pm**

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:39 pm Bleh I hate hammerless xD

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:50 pm**

LC spewed town.

Martin town, too.

If JJJ and moto flip red. Otherwise I go nuts.

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:51 pm**

Well, if JJJ flips red and moto town. Then Zenon... but that seems unlikely. JJJ and moto makes perfect sense.

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:56 pm**

This is the weirdest process of analysis I'm experiencing, every detail or angle raises a BUT/YET caveat

It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3 and push all play into a lock-on vote, BUT was his wagon that dire as to merit this gambit (instead of fighting it out)?
-- same question if Zenon's claim is now the fake one, this is not a lylo phase (unless there's a double kill and we reach parity toNight?)
It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3, YET why or to what purpose delay his lynch by just one phase, virtually?
JJJ fake claimed a track role, BUT does JJJ fit the profile of a player so bold / un-thorough in his gambit'ing, as to have banked on there being no actual track role to counter-claim?
Apart from two details, JJJ's and Zenon's ability claim are the same, BUT is that reasonable, within the design and balance of this game?
Two civilian track roles is a posibility, BUT is that balanced?
A mafia track role to counter a civilian track role is a design/balance posibility, BUT what would the track role, designed in this fashion, truly serve the mafia?

etc. I'll fill up further this thought process.

Posted: **Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:58 pm**

Nevermind on the parity reach, Martin is off the poll (presumably silenced), we are ten players total, not nine, as I judged from the poll.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 12:03 am**

It's raining.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 12:22 am**

*screams*

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:45 am**

Is anyone impacted by the rain, insofar as they can state so?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:48 am**

Can everyone also pitch in on the “why would JJJ delay his lynch by one phase with a fake claim”?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:56 am**

there's no way I came back to a meatbaby town flip lol

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:58 am**

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:17 pm
Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:09 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:07 pm
Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:17 pm Motobaby is wolf I'm Lookout I watched Rondo last night bet bet
Can you be more specific about this role or info (within rule 3's limits, of course)?

We've been through "I tracked this = outed gg gg" already.
I see every one who visits a target

I watched Rondo

Moto visited

Moto killed

Moto is scum

GGs
Is this an attempt to save JJJ?

I love that we think alike

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:59 am**

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:20 pm
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:21 pm I don't want to say it like this, but it's needed to be said.

JJJ would know better than to basically fake a red as a town.

It's straight forward they ended up trading 1 for another.
Plus JJJ has only lynched town so far. That includes the fake red check. I was going to vote JJJ last day, until the claim, so once Meatball flipped town, I felt a I knew it!

oh okay never mind I dont understand your perspective

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:01 am**

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:31 pm Feels too on the nose to be a scum play from JJJ but like I literally won't try to save him lol

I love that we think alike (part 2)

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:24 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:56 pm This is the weirdest process of analysis I'm experiencing, every detail or angle raises a BUT/YET caveat

It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3 and push all play into a lock-on vote, BUT was his wagon that dire as to merit this gambit (instead of fighting it out)?
-- same question if Zenon's claim is now the fake one, this is not a lylo phase (unless there's a double kill and we reach parity toNight?)
It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3, YET why or to what purpose delay his lynch by just one phase, virtually?
JJJ fake claimed a track role, BUT does JJJ fit the profile of a player so bold / un-thorough in his gambit'ing, as to have banked on there being no actual track role to counter-claim?
Apart from two details, JJJ's and Zenon's ability claim are the same, BUT is that reasonable, within the design and balance of this game?
Two civilian track roles is a posibility, BUT is that balanced?
A mafia track role to counter a civilian track role is a design/balance posibility, BUT what would the track role, designed in this fashion, truly serve the mafia?
etc. I'll fill up further this thought process.

what was his wagon like? how many votes did he get?
I was having impure thoughts of jjj being a real tracker and wolves taking advantage of something like a redirector that gave him a false result and then counter claiming the tracker
cuz also like, what are the chances the wolves would sent moto to do a kill when, if jjj is really a wolf, he would be outed today. why not just send him? moto has also been in the poe quite a bit, it generally seems like a risky move to send him regardless of the jjj situation. i'm worried about this scenario and nobody seems to have considered it

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:25 am**

like maybe i'm too worried about the sort - of - unlikely, but if there traditional roles like tracker, what's to say there isn't a redirector type role? or false read kind of role?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:30 am**

I'm actually just gonna stay on motu

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:30 am**

Moto*

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:30 am**

I know I've got a scum and I'd prefer to kill that

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:32 am**

I bet I cant even make use of the wood because of the rain ugh

[VOTE: Spinach & Mushroom Risotto] aubergine

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:37 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:24 am

what was his wagon like? how many votes did he get?
I was having impure thoughts of jjj being a real tracker and wolves taking advantage of something like a redirector that gave him a false result and then counter claiming the tracker
cuz also like, what are the chances the wolves would sent moto to do a kill when, if jjj is really a wolf, he would be outed today. why not just send him? moto has also been in the poe quite a bit, it generally seems like a risky move to send him regardless of the jjj situation. i'm worried about this scenario and nobody seems to have considered it

I think JJJ’s wagon amounted to two or three votes right when he made his claim post.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:38 am**

okay cool my most important thoughts were not responded to. cool cool

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:40 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:25 am like maybe i'm too worried about the sort - of - unlikely, but if there traditional roles like tracker, what's to say there isn't a redirector type role? or false read kind of role?

I would need some mechanical understanding on how you can track who “visits” your target and get false read (aka a false visitor, sorta).

First thought was that JJJ - surprising as that may be - was superficial and triggery with interpreting meatbaby’s visit as the only visit or the only possible explanation for tutuu’s death.

But the wagon pressure weighs down on him as a suspect motive to deflect with a (fake or not) claim.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:41 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:38 am okay cool my most important thoughts were not responded to. cool cool

I focused on the first point, if you mean me.

I dunno about projecting why motobot was the killer. Perhaps they considered it low chance for him to be a target (block, track, etc)

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:58 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:59 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:20 pm
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:21 pm I don't want to say it like this, but it's needed to be said.

JJJ would know better than to basically fake a red as a town.

It's straight forward they ended up trading 1 for another.
Plus JJJ has only lynched town so far. That includes the fake red check. I was going to vote JJJ last day, until the claim, so once Meatball flipped town, I felt a I knew it!
oh okay never mind I dont understand your perspective

What's not to understand?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:03 am**

I have qualms, general or specific, with the “player X only lynched town, therefore bad” idea. Probably from bias as a frequent town mislyncher, here included.

It’s Day 4. All our lynches were town thus far.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:03 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:38 am okay cool my most important thoughts were not responded to. cool cool

Well frankly I dunno what even happened I just know I caught a scum

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:04 am**

So I can't really respond to like most things

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:15 am**

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:24 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:56 pm This is the weirdest process of analysis I'm experiencing, every detail or angle raises a BUT/YET caveat

It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3 and push all play into a lock-on vote, BUT was his wagon that dire as to merit this gambit (instead of fighting it out)?
-- same question if Zenon's claim is now the fake one, this is not a lylo phase (unless there's a double kill and we reach parity toNight?)
It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3, YET why or to what purpose delay his lynch by just one phase, virtually?
JJJ fake claimed a track role, BUT does JJJ fit the profile of a player so bold / un-thorough in his gambit'ing, as to have banked on there being no actual track role to counter-claim?
Apart from two details, JJJ's and Zenon's ability claim are the same, BUT is that reasonable, within the design and balance of this game?
Two civilian track roles is a posibility, BUT is that balanced?
A mafia track role to counter a civilian track role is a design/balance posibility, BUT what would the track role, designed in this fashion, truly serve the mafia?
etc. I'll fill up further this thought process.
what was his wagon like? how many votes did he get?
I was having impure thoughts of jjj being a real tracker and wolves taking advantage of something like a redirector that gave him a false result and then counter claiming the tracker
cuz also like, what are the chances the wolves would sent moto to do a kill when, if jjj is really a wolf, he would be outed today. why not just send him? moto has also been in the poe quite a bit, it generally seems like a risky move to send him regardless of the jjj situation. i'm worried about this scenario and nobody seems to have considered it

If I had to take a guess, it would be because they didn't want any sort of role blocker or anything that stopped JJJ from doing actions causing maf to lose their night kill? So they had Motobot carry instead.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:26 am**

Like I don't know how to take the Zenon claim at all at this rate after what happened Day 3.

Legit could be seeing it as the maf team just flat out deciding "Let's just continue to claim red checks on towns now that the numbers are on our side."

But also could be them accidentally causing the best form of WIFOM and Zenon's check is actually real, but the JJJ's fake ends up making us have second thoughts on the matter and we end up misyeeting Zenon on accident because we end up assuming it's another attempt at tricking the town and wolves win anyways.

"Now, Brad, which one do you think it is?"

Dude I don't fucking know.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:30 am**

Again this is rough because all motobot has done has just been talking about what they've been doing, which becomes reasons why they haven't done anything.
And then vote at me because I called them out on that.

And literally nothing else.
No reads.
No attempted game solving.

Nothing.

Like I hate the fact that this could be town. I want this to be mafia. I'd actually rather yeet this after JJJ and hope it's the latter option.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am**

The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.

There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:38 am**

Zenon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:04 am So I can't really respond to like most things

Another reason to not trust Zenon just yet.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:39 am**

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.
There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.

I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:41 am**

I would argue that punitive lynches are the worst instinct to follow. Zenon’s claim is no definitive proof JJJ was fake.

But I would also argue we cannot leave both claim(er)s unflipped. If we go into Day 5 with two unknowns, it becomes a gamble.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am**

100% the play here is to yeet JJJ after that he basically claimed a red on a town that was basically in people's towncore and was never getting yeeted when he was being considered.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am**

I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:46 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:39 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.
There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.
I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?

How does me wanting to lynch JJJ first equals trusting Zenon's claim?

Aside from getting rid of town after town, a fake red check is outing yourself as scum. Not only that. A part of me did not believe JJJ, because I have a very hard time townreading JJJ. So there is no way I will allow JJJ surviving another day. Anything that will destract us from lynching JJJ, I see as a potential scum move; to stall a lynch on another scum once again. After all mislynches we cannot allow any more mistakes.

Zenon is just like JJJ a potential scummy in my book. So I won't trust Zenon's claim right now. JJJ is my top scumread. Never rescind.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:48 am**

JJJ is scum

LC town

Martin town

Zenon and moto tbc

Porscha etc also tbc

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:49 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.

Writing was on the wall for the guy...idk if it was fully happening, but it was closing in on him.

Kamikaze a town that wasn't considered a yeet for most of the game.

Now let me ask you about the other side of the coin here:

Do you really think JJJ tries that as town?

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:51 am**

Sean maybe town too, but not sure

Rico unsure

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:52 am**

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:58 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:59 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:20 pm
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:21 pm I don't want to say it like this, but it's needed to be said.

JJJ would know better than to basically fake a red as a town.

It's straight forward they ended up trading 1 for another.
Plus JJJ has only lynched town so far. That includes the fake red check. I was going to vote JJJ last day, until the claim, so once Meatball flipped town, I felt a I knew it!
oh okay never mind I dont understand your perspective
What's not to understand?

I misread your first comment to mean you thought jjj might be town and then made that post which is clearly different lol

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:53 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:41 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:38 am okay cool my most important thoughts were not responded to. cool cool
I focused on the first point, if you mean me.

I dunno about projecting why motobot was the killer. Perhaps they considered it low chance for him to be a target (block, track, etc)

He has been poe especially from tutuu, that wouldnt make sense

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:54 am**

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:46 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:39 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.
There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.
I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?
How does me wanting to lynch JJJ first equals trusting Zenon's claim?

Aside from getting rid of town after town, a fake red check is outing yourself as scum. Not only that. A part of me did not believe JJJ, because I have a very hard time townreading JJJ. So there is no way I will allow JJJ surviving another day. Anything that will destract us from lynching JJJ, I see as a potential scum move; to stall a lynch on another scum once again. After all mislynches we cannot allow any more mistakes.

Zenon is just like JJJ a potential scummy in my book. So I won't trust Zenon's claim right now. JJJ is my top scumread. Never rescind.

“A fake red check is outing yourself as scum.”

This being JaggedJimmyJay, as wolf, I am certain he was aware of this backlash.

Otherwise, I think there are partial details to his claim. He only claim he saw “one” visit and deduced it must have been the killing blow.

It gives me pause that, this being JaggedJimmyJay, he did not consider for one sec that his read is limited, i.e. meatball was one of several who may have visited tutuu.

So there’s rational space for this being a town mega blunder, too.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:56 am**

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:49 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.
Writing was on the wall for the guy...idk if it was fully happening, but it was closing in on him.

Kamikaze a town that wasn't considered a yeet for most of the game.

Now let me ask you about the other side of the coin here:

Do you really think JJJ tries that as town?

The fact that I took JJJ for a town tracker, eager to share the info, if a bit superficial in his analysis (that his tracked visit was the killer’s visit), is proof that I believed he would have done down as town.

The only surprise on Day 3 was that the flip was town, not that JJJ was seen town for it:

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:58 am**

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:54 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:46 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:39 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.
There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.
I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?
How does me wanting to lynch JJJ first equals trusting Zenon's claim?

Aside from getting rid of town after town, a fake red check is outing yourself as scum. Not only that. A part of me did not believe JJJ, because I have a very hard time townreading JJJ. So there is no way I will allow JJJ surviving another day. Anything that will destract us from lynching JJJ, I see as a potential scum move; to stall a lynch on another scum once again. After all mislynches we cannot allow any more mistakes.

Zenon is just like JJJ a potential scummy in my book. So I won't trust Zenon's claim right now. JJJ is my top scumread. Never rescind.
“A fake red check is outing yourself as scum.”

This being JaggedJimmyJay, as wolf, I am certain he was aware of this backlash.

Otherwise, I think there are partial details to his claim. He only claim he saw “one” visit and deduced it must have been the killing blow.

It gives me pause that, this being JaggedJimmyJay, he did not consider for one sec that his read is limited, i.e. meatball was one of several who may have visited tutuu.

So there’s rational space for this being a town mega blunder, too.

JJJ being scum is the most rational and safest conclusion. Do you wanna keep alive a JJJ who fake claimed a red check, and has done only kill off townies so far? Keeping JJJ alive is the biggest mistake ever.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:59 am**

JJJ wolf gambit could have had so many fails on Day 3 already:

Zenon could have not been silenced and counterclaim.
Another player could have been a (real) tracker and counterclaim.
Meatbaby could have properly defended herself, including shedding light that she visited tutuu with another kind of target.

All this makes for baffling questionable wolf gambit, unless he as wolf (with the team) had more info to spin the story right.

Posted: **Thu Jul 20, 2023 5:00 am**

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:49 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.
Writing was on the wall for the guy...idk if it was fully happening, but it was closing in on him.

Kamikaze a town that wasn't considered a yeet for most of the game.

Now let me ask you about the other side of the coin here:

Do you really think JJJ tries that as town?

Like this is JJJ, a guy who early game was saying "I'm a bit rusty guys, I haven't played in forever" all day.

Then somehow he decides to commit a hero ball tactic and claim a red check suddenly?

I don't think JJJ would be the type of individual that would pull that as a town, especially if he believes that he isn't as in tune with his game as he'd want to be.

The Syndicate

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