The Syndicate

That the soup kill wasn’t already activated today should tell you:
-mafia doesn’t have enough info or feel confident in people’s roles or
-mafia can’t use it right now.

Because with at least 2 v 4 that would have been easy squeezy day

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:07 pm I was pretty sure the soup was real so this is a surprise to me. I kind of still think the last mafia is Scotty though. I don't think the shot clears him, since if he's mafia with LC he has no path to victory except bussing.

I have to admit this was my first thought also.

But we have now 5 mafia flips. 6 mafia feels overpowered. So it feels like this flip not ending the game spews there being flip fuckery. Which means we have yet to account for a mafia role that;

1. Gave me the gun that backfired on me
2. Is responsible for card swapping
3. Is responsible for night flip fuckery
4. Is responsible C4 and Listo having the same flip

I am tinfoiling the idea that Scotty may have the ability specifically to make all his kills flip upside down when he fires?

I was cursed and it lifted with LC’s death, so that’s just not the case.

Card swapping is probably factional

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:13 pm Scotty just shoot yourself.

lol if I had a nickel

Scotty, why did you get a gun when Ender flipped?

Ima take a shower and take some time to think.

I only have like 15 posts left today ffs

We still haven’t won this, so I’m not patting myself on the back yet

The soup is fake but mafia has not used it.

That means it was most likely not a gambit soup and was the mafia team intentionally submitting false information about their own team members. They were willing to sacrifice a nightkill to do so which means they were willing to give up KP to make LC go deep. Which implies that none of them were very deep.

Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:15 pm Scotty, why did you get a gun when Ender flipped?

Ender flat out said he targeted me with a random power, and when I pressed him on it, he just said something to the effect of me being middle of the road.

So I got a gun via someone else’s random ability

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

If that is your solve don't you just have auto with me + Scotty?

Another point in my favour is I came out today solving in 2 wolf worlds when it behooves wolves to have town believe we're in a world of 1 today.

I guess mafia could be holding onto the soup and it's actually LyLo today.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:17 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

If that is your solve don't you just have auto with me + Scotty?

One would think so, but then one would be overlooking the fact that we are playing a Guillo bastard game.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

Ender
LC
Osie
Michelle
Nanook

Michelle only gets elevated because HK said she wasn’t solving in DVC

Could there just be 6 mafia? Town has a fuckton of KP with all the guns going around, and if the c4/listo flips are to be believed there's 2 protectives as well.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:18 pm Could there just be 6 mafia? Town has a fuckton of KP with all the guns going around, and if the c4/listo flips are to be believed there's 2 protectives as well.

You don't really believe they had the exact same role do you?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:19 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:18 pm Could there just be 6 mafia? Town has a fuckton of KP with all the guns going around, and if the c4/listo flips are to be believed there's 2 protectives as well.

You don't really believe they had the exact same role do you?

It happened in PercyKate, remember?

One of them could be a role copier as well.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:19 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:19 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:18 pm Could there just be 6 mafia? Town has a fuckton of KP with all the guns going around, and if the c4/listo flips are to be believed there's 2 protectives as well.

You don't really believe they had the exact same role do you?

It happened in PercyKate, remember?

That game made sense to have people with the same powers. A bastard joat game doesn't.

Role copier is the only way they have the same skillset.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

martin
ender
lc
michelle

Do we have proof that Mac actually got a fake gun that replaced his abilities with crap?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:21 pm Do we have proof that Mac actually got a fake gun that replaced his abilities with crap?

Shot rang out in the middle of me trying to bury HK, I claimed it. No cc.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:17 pm I guess mafia could be holding onto the soup and it's actually LyLo today.

I've been saying if they can soup again (which if we think soup 1 is fake they can) today is lylo
and now that there's 5 of us left I think it's still lylo for a single wolf.
Chop town, soup 2 (dolby/me) = parity

We know a gun misfired that day so Mac is proven to have been holding a blank gun. We don't have proof that it vanillaized him.

Although I guess the "must fire" status effect Dolby got heavily suggests that mafia has an effect of that kind.

lol I forgot nanook flipped wolf. Probably put him around michelle for confidence

I think that the solve is just in Alison/Mac since if Scotty has a second gun he’s clear and I’m not at HK flipping fake to try to get rezzed further down

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:22 pm We know a gun misfired that day so Mac is proven to have been holding a blank gun. We don't have proof that it vanillaized him.

It didn't vanillaise me. Stop saying that it did. It swapped my original skillset with ascetic, miller and disloyal PGO.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:24 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:22 pm We know a gun misfired that day so Mac is proven to have been holding a blank gun. We don't have proof that it vanillaized him.

It didn't vanillaise me. Stop saying that it did. It swapped my original skillset with ascetic, miller and disloyal PGO.

Yes, that.

I'm asking if we have proof that happened.

Dolby's status effect is suggestive that mafia can give people guns that do bad things to them which is a point in your favor. I do not think mafia Mac fucks up his own role D2.

Mac what nights have you activated disloyal PGO?

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:23 pm I think that the solve is just in Alison/Mac since if Scotty has a second gun he’s clear and I’m not at HK flipping fake to try to get rezzed further down

We don't have proof Scotty has a second gun, or that the second gun works. I agree with you on HK flipping fake.

I gotta go run an in person mafia game in 15 minutes

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:23 pm I think that the solve is just in Alison/Mac since if Scotty has a second gun he’s clear and I’m not at HK flipping fake to try to get rezzed further down

Let’s be honest.

Alison even contemplating me as bad is red flag.

Because even with 1 gun and a most likely soup kill, bad me could have ended this game so fast at beginning of day.

My eye is actually on Alison if I had to shoot right now/
I will not because I want to do more digging tomorrow, but that’s where my head is at. Night all

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:26 pm Mac what nights have you activated disloyal PGO?

Last night. Third in the cycle. Because it's the worst of the three roles. I hard claimed it in the thread and told people to stay away.

My original card that was swapped last night with Lime Coke's was a % chance to become immune to insanity effects. You will see that pop up in discord when guillo gets to it. I now have LC's 10% chance of commuting power.

n1 I activated Blaze and Honey stole a penance stare off of me, received a vest (that the mod still has not confirmed popped) and a gun, as well as a colourblind cop sanity check from lost monkey that he softed in the thread
d2 I fired a gun that did nothing, lost my powers and had them swapped for ascetic, miller and disloyal PGO
n2 I was vanillaised by overposting so I didn't have to activate any of the powers which I found very ironic and funny
n2 I was post cursed
n3 I activated ascetic because it is the last neg util of the 3 roles
n4 I activated miller
n5 I activated disloyal PGO

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:29 pm

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:23 pm I think that the solve is just in Alison/Mac since if Scotty has a second gun he’s clear and I’m not at HK flipping fake to try to get rezzed further down

Let’s be honest.

Alison even contemplating me as bad is red flag.

Because even with 1 gun and a most likely soup kill, bad me could have ended this game so fast at beginning of day.

My eye is actually on Alison if I had to shoot right now/
I will not because I want to do more digging tomorrow, but that’s where my head is at. Night all

With 1 gun you cannot end the game unless you also have a soup kill. There is a very real chance that the soup kill is simply incorrectly submitted and the mafia does not have an actual soup kill left.

If you have a second gun feel free to shoot me to clear your suspicions. If I die you'll be outed as 2 real guns which proves you aren't mafia. In which case you can just solve between Mac/Dolby, most likely Mac.

Dolby wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:28 pm I gotta go run an in person mafia game in 15 minutes

wolfy pop-out

jkjk

mech reasons to town read:
me: Flipped town, rezzed as same alignment as flipped
Dolby: Lie Detected Ender, was souped, shot TSP, was Izanoomi target
Mac: Tried to shoot me (uncountered) D2 on my TSP Red, was Izanoomi target
Alison: claimed Michelle death, was kidnapped
Scotty: killed Lime Coke

I know I am town
Mac, Alison, Dolby targeted by powers that have flipped wolf.
Leaves scotty. Except that he just killed Lime Coke who I think was in no danger of being a real push today so like the only reason to kill Lime Coke is b/c it's his only chance to get to tomorrow

Mac react to LC death is townie and also he yelled at me for angleshooting with dolby being Izanoomi. Probs doesn't need to do that if he's a wolf he just ignores it and lets me draw a modkill b/c closer to parity and "don't break rules dumbass" is super easy cover.

Dolby makes an interesting point about does Wolf?Scotty take that shot at 4v2.
Lets work through that.
If he does he's making it 4v1 right now and he MUST get a town chop today. Who would that be? It won't be me, it won't be dolby, and it won't be mac. Must be Alison. But then Wolf?Scotty loses tomorrow b/c there's nobody left to chop. He can't get me, he can't get mac, and he can't get Dolby.

Wolf?Scotty didn't have to make that shot to win today IF the soup wasn't real OR they have an additional soup. Mac - Ascetic, Dolby - Lie Detector, HK - Vanilla Town = one alive wolf scotty, and one alive wolf Lime Coke, and one alive town Alison.

That the game hasn't ended means that the soup as submitted was real, yeah?

I was pushing LC/Scotty worlds literally today fwiw. So the idea that there is absolutely no benefit to Scotty taking that shot if he can take it, is not true. I was pretty much bullying everyone into going Scotty into LC as our solve. This is like the one thing that could have happened to prevent Scotty being today's chop and LC being an auto chop afterwards imo.

That said, there is no world in which Scotty wins this at f3. So it's a hail mary anyway. Scotty has claimed to have a second gun. That'll clear things up even further. If he is town, he is very likely to shoot at a wolf imo.

Please note that for the fifth time I am hard claiming having an unpopped vest though.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 pm I was pushing LC/Scotty worlds literally today fwiw. So the idea that there is absolutely no benefit to Scotty taking that shot if he can take it, is not true. I was pretty much bullying everyone into going Scotty into LC as our solve. This is like the one thing that could have happened to prevent Scotty being today's chop and LC being an auto chop afterwards imo.

I wouldn't say you were bullying anyone into a scotty/lc solve. I know I came into the day thinking scotty. Alison did too, clearly.
Thing is though, and I think you said this in your next post, is that Scotty doesn't win in F3 anyways. He doesn't need to if there's an available soup b/c he knows I'm vt and he knows Dolby is lie detector, and if he's got any faith that you're telling the truth (don't say anything if you're not) about being ascetic that's gg for wolves b/c that leaves him and alison

Which is why I said that the original soup is the only soup and was a legit soup attempt b/c the game ends

If Scotty has a second gun he should fire it to clear himself by proving he had two live guns. Then if the game doesn't end you can just solve between the survivors. Mac is probably a bad choice since he has claimed to have a vest, and I think HK is just town so you should probably fire between me and Dolby.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:00 pm That said, there is no world in which Scotty wins this at f3. So it's a hail mary anyway. Scotty has claimed to have a second gun. That'll clear things up even further. If he is town, he is very likely to shoot at a wolf imo.

Please note that for the fifth time I am hard claiming having an unpopped vest though.

Alright. Do you think it's more or less likely that Scotty is the last wolf?

If you think it's less likely do you think Dolby or Alison is more likely the last wolf?

this feels like GOC ngl

I'd go Alison over Dolby. Pretty comfortably.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:38 pm I'd go Alison over Dolby. Pretty comfortably.

so alison going for the wifom play then here?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:28 pm If Scotty has a second gun he should fire it to clear himself by proving he had two live guns. Then if the game doesn't end you can just solve between the survivors. Mac is probably a bad choice since he has claimed to have a vest, and I think HK is just town so you should probably fire between me and Dolby.

cause that's the only thing I can think of when she says shoot between her and dolby is "less likely to shoot the person offering to be shot"
and GTH dolby is town

If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:44 pm cause that's the only thing I can think of when she says shoot between her and dolby is "less likely to shoot the person offering to be shot"
and GTH dolby is town

Saying to shoot between me and Dolby is not WIFOM it's mech correct play. You're the most cleared town and Mac is claiming a vest.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:46 pm If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

Dolby also was time looped today and only broke out of it when LC flipped. It's impossible for him to be a wolf unless this entire game has been set up for him to be the deepest of deep wolves.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:46 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:44 pm cause that's the only thing I can think of when she says shoot between her and dolby is "less likely to shoot the person offering to be shot"
and GTH dolby is town

Saying to shoot between me and Dolby is not WIFOM it's mech correct play. You're the most cleared town and Mac is claiming a vest.

yeah, I get that it's mechanically the "right" thing to do. The wifom part is who suggests it first. But I'm also feeling kinda paranoid at the moment

Scotty shooting a wolf teammate when he did is just nuts to think about. I am not gonna be the guy that tinfoils mafia killing teammates. I did that once and it cost me a lot of dignity.

So I am taking Dolby, Scotty as clear.

Is there a world where HK is a wolf?

Maybe he is the wolf with the card shuffling nonsense?