The Syndicate

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:54 am but also not that terrifying. so i went back over TSP with flips since then. i'm not sure i can repost my notes because they contain some quotes. wish the rules on that were clearer.

abi is ~90% not with TSP and it has been a true hot minute, by which i mean decade+, since anyone tried to sidle up to me the way she has. the combination of these two things makes me... probably as confident as i'm ever going to get at this point. if you're a wolf goddess you got me.

I am sadly not a wolf Goddess busy a friendly neighborhood town who thinks you're never wolf here... again

I tinfoiled a bit but we off dat bullshit now

TSP not having the "ran could always be powerwolfing" reaction was a big clue he was off. i'll attempt a review of TSP stuff that stood out to me, for the other thread peeps and general review.

very early on when people were looking at the signup thread and predicting two threads, TSP the wolf spoketh thus: "wolves in nutella brad monroe scotty in the other thread, based on nothing whatsoever"

these are now all flipped, brad (lime coke) wolf the other three town. something something salad, eat your heart out.

randomly said "we're about to chop rondo, right" when rondo subbed in, and then somewhat later voted WWA and said "i convinced myself against the leetic vote" which I have marked as ?!?!?! because it was pretty out of nowhere no "leetic vote" going on at that time. shortly thereafter he gives his reasoning, in a major post that i wish i could quote, saying bereft (the current de facto wagon) was a "limp" and "rand" chop, and asking who in the game "should know better". but also then saying voting bereft looked "slightly towny". and he ends up saying abi and pyxxy are "the standard d1 chops that don't have votes" and pushing towards them.

he talks about leetic quite a lot but never really gives a hard stance. he talks about tedxtr almost none.

then there's a bit where he's talking about dizzy and i voting each other, dizzy accuses him of trying to set up a "must be one in ran/dizzy" dichotomy and he denies this and flees. he ends up voting robyn, calling it going with the flow, and says "ted is not a good choice" when ted and rondo are fighting.

he is absent or lurking at the actual eod1. on day 2, he claims he would have left his vote off wagon on dizzy or abigail if he had been present, then says dizzy looks good and abi looks bad, doubles down on attacking abi, then starts flailing and pushing back when people start pushing him.

when asked for five chops to solve the game, shortly after announcing illario is in his head, he says "dizzy rondo bereft ran and abigail narrowly over ted before leetic asks." then adjusts this to "rondo abi bereft dizzy is a two wolf group on wagonomics" - rondo being his counterwagon at the time

and that's about when the push on him really takes off and the serious takes end, he leaves his vote on rondo and does not post in the last hourish.

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:04 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:48 pm @Alexy where would you vote right now?

Likely ted based on private conversation with pyxxy and the contradictory description of their role as mentioned by leetic

well, this is pretty sad

you do not think that there could be mirror roles given the flips so far?

Skimmed your votes. Oddly not many wagons have resolutions there.

Things that stood out: Abigail and Ted have block voted since D2, there's 1 W between them.

Rondo/Ted not W/W.

Ran and Leetic have comparable equity in voting. Not weird, but obscuring for the slots.

PoE: Ted/Abigail>Alexy>Leetic/Ran

Rondo resolves against Ted.

Ran Resolves against Abigail.

This is the way.

Now, my holdup here that is a problem this game is that I'm by no means a mechanical player.

Does anyone see or can point out to me exact points of mech contention between players and why?

I assume they exist between Ted/Alexy? Does Leetics present one as well?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:47 am Now, my holdup here that is a problem this game is that I'm by no means a mechanical player.

Does anyone see or can point out to me exact points of mech contention between players and why?

I assume they exist between Ted/Alexy? Does Leetics present one as well?

The relevant claims are as such:

Alexy claims 2 shot watcher (no additional stipulations)
- n1 PSV, saw scotty, scotty apparently confirmed going to PSV (can you/someone from work thread check the order on this though? who claimed first?)
- n2 Long Con, saw no one visiting

Ted claims 2 shot watcher that "cannot see kills"
- n1 attempted Macdougall, was roleblocked (by WWA who confirmed this and flipped)
- n2 WWA, saw no non killing visits (WWA was nightkilled)

Leetic claims 3 shot tracker (no additional stipulations)
- n1 Bereft, visited no one
- n2 attempted Ted, claims roleblocked/no feedback?
- n3 Abigail, visited no one

also relevant here is:
WWA flipped 2 shot roleblocker
- n1 confirmed in thread that she blocked ted
- n2 she died, did not claim a target in the day, allegedly also did not claim when she was in work thread with Long Con?

... which all adds up to a pile of not helpful. Nothing in any of this is confirmed except possibly alexy seeing scotty, if alexy claimed it first.

Ted/leetic have put forth various arguments for their credibility but they are based on setup spec and circumstantial evidence, nothing actually confirmable or conflicting.

so, is 2nd thread confident enough in alexey wolf that we vote them today?

or do we go with rondo

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:10 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:47 am Now, my holdup here that is a problem this game is that I'm by no means a mechanical player.

Does anyone see or can point out to me exact points of mech contention between players and why?

I assume they exist between Ted/Alexy? Does Leetics present one as well?

The relevant claims are as such:

Alexy claims 2 shot watcher (no additional stipulations)
- n1 PSV, saw scotty, scotty apparently confirmed going to PSV (can you/someone from work thread check the order on this though? who claimed first?)
- n2 Long Con, saw no one visiting

Ted claims 2 shot watcher that "cannot see kills"
- n1 attempted Macdougall, was roleblocked (by WWA who confirmed this and flipped)
- n2 WWA, saw no non killing visits (WWA was nightkilled)

Leetic claims 3 shot tracker (no additional stipulations)
- n1 Bereft, visited no one
- n2 attempted Ted, claims roleblocked/no feedback?
- n3 Abigail, visited no one

also relevant here is:
WWA flipped 2 shot roleblocker
- n1 confirmed in thread that she blocked ted
- n2 she died, did not claim a target in the day, allegedly also did not claim when she was in work thread with Long Con?

... which all adds up to a pile of not helpful. Nothing in any of this is confirmed except possibly alexy seeing scotty, if alexy claimed it first.

Ted/leetic have put forth various arguments for their credibility but they are based on setup spec and circumstantial evidence, nothing actually confirmable or conflicting.

can confirm I claimed it first

some more from pyxxy.

Apparently earlier in the game Abi had been masoning Rondo, so turning on him now is suspicious. Perhaps an attempt to take advantage of the Rondo wagon previous cycle. My not knowing about the masoning should be evidence that this is indeed coming from Pyxxy. He also suggests (although I can't tell if it was a suggestion to me or to everyone) that folks reread the game in which Abi spewed something about Rondo town framing. Paraphrasing is hard when you don't know what they're talking about lmao

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:47 am Now, my holdup here that is a problem this game is that I'm by no means a mechanical player.

Does anyone see or can point out to me exact points of mech contention between players and why?

I assume they exist between Ted/Alexy? Does Leetics present one as well?

I think the issue is that in Ted's role description, there's a stipulation that he can't track kills. Mine doesn't say anything like that, rather just that I'll be told who visited the player I chose that night.

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:47 am some more from pyxxy.

Apparently earlier in the game Abi had been masoning Rondo, so turning on him now is suspicious. Perhaps an attempt to take advantage of the Rondo wagon previous cycle. My not knowing about the masoning should be evidence that this is indeed coming from Pyxxy. He also suggests (although I can't tell if it was a suggestion to me or to everyone) that folks reread the game in which Abi spewed something about Rondo town framing. Paraphrasing is hard when you don't know what they're talking about lmao

can you ask like... the name of the game in question? not sure I understand this.

Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:43 pm Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?

Because I'm not a wolf. Plus, I have the more believable PR claim

kk, swap you out for someone else and tell me why that trio makes sense.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:13 pm kk, swap you out for someone else and tell me why that trio makes sense.

The closest is probably Ranmilia/ted. Abby just doesn't fit cleanly with anyone else in the PoE.

Care to detail to me the interactions between tsp and rondo?

I gotta say this is still an interesting experience for me.

Knowing there's data I just can't utilize is fascinating. I know I could probably draw correct conclusions about Abigail and Rondo at least had I had this data.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:19 pm Care to detail to me the interactions between tsp and rondo?

TSP mostly ignored RDB D1 but was parked on their wagon D2. RDB switched their vote around a lot but landed on TSP with one minute to EoD.

So Rondo voting TSP effectively has no meaning?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:28 pm So Rondo voting TSP effectively has no meaning?

They did break the tie between Made and TSP in favor of the latter. Granted, a large part of the reason why Made was viable was because RDB was on it in the first place. So far though, all dead TSP voters have either flipped town or are Bereft.

So Abby/ted is the only option if there was no TSP bus. They were fighting throughout most of the game, but maybe they're capable of this kind of theatre?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:28 pm So Rondo voting TSP effectively has no meaning?

Anyway, what do you think of Alexy vs. ted in terms of claims?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:57 am

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:47 am some more from pyxxy.

Apparently earlier in the game Abi had been masoning Rondo, so turning on him now is suspicious. Perhaps an attempt to take advantage of the Rondo wagon previous cycle. My not knowing about the masoning should be evidence that this is indeed coming from Pyxxy. He also suggests (although I can't tell if it was a suggestion to me or to everyone) that folks reread the game in which Abi spewed something about Rondo town framing. Paraphrasing is hard when you don't know what they're talking about lmao

can you ask like... the name of the game in question? not sure I understand this.

I misunderstood. He meant reread your thread from that perspective.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:20 pm I gotta say this is still an interesting experience for me.

Knowing there's data I just can't utilize is fascinating. I know I could probably draw correct conclusions about Abigail and Rondo at least had I had this data.

You'd town read me with data so so trying to kill me fwen

Stop*

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:31 pm So Abby/ted is the only option if there was no TSP bus. They were fighting throughout most of the game, but maybe they're capable of this kind of theatre?

I am

@Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.

So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.

Might want to [VOTE: Abby] aubergine for now. They have the least reason to be townread, not having a TSP vote or a PR claim, and while any pairing with them would be weird I see no reason to discount any as impossible. I can still be swayed, though.

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.

it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:42 am PoE: Ted/Abigail>Alexy>Leetic/Ran

Rondo resolves against Ted.

Ran Resolves against Abigail.

This is the way.

what exactly does this "resolves against" mean?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:02 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:43 pm Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?

Because I'm not a wolf. Plus, I have the more believable PR claim

says who? lol

your role mirrors nobody's

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:25 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:02 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:43 pm Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?

Because I'm not a wolf. Plus, I have the more believable PR claim

says who? lol

your role mirrors nobody's

The fact that your role "mirrors" somebody's makes it less believable, not more. Who else has such a role?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:19 pm

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.

it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)

Why isn't Abby a wolf? They have the least towny things going for them right now

tbh i had an epiphany that it could be abi / rondo

is there anything that hard disproves that?

And I'm not sure how you arrived at "at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus", they don't contradict at all and if anything they're more likely to both be true since Windward is the only other non-vanilla town on our side while there are many on the other side

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:34 pm tbh i had an epiphany that it could be abi / rondo

is there anything that hard disproves that?

Not "hard" per se, but you do have to consider the EoD4 shenanigans of Abby shifting back and forth between RDB and Made. I do have a post summarizing that.

Still, more likely than the other RDB pairings in my mind.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:34 pm tbh i had an epiphany that it could be abi / rondo

is there anything that hard disproves that?

it annoys me that they keep hopping back on me despite claiming rondo is a wolf

like i don't understand why they feel like voting me when i go rondo, given they said rondo had a very wolfy TMI post yesterday, we're not w/w, and their read of me is also pingy in that they are acting like they have legit reasons for wolfreading me and acting like im somewhat cleared by everyone, when it's not the case

"ted is cleared by his claim"

it's as if they are angling i won't be voted cuz of my claim, which is just not a reality. and it's contradictory in a way, like if you think im a wolf, who gives af about my claim, no? i don't like how she treats it

It's almost like a w!Ranmilia would be running out of easy pushes here. Then again, not considering Abby limits them further, then again, Ranmilia/Abby is possible…

they've kept saying it all game that my claim is looking bad, yet they act like it's good at the same time?

if it's not good, why not push me more? seriously, what reasons does she have to hold back?

i feel like she's poking at me with a ten foot pole, idk the dynamic of it is weird as all hell

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:38 pm they've kept saying it all game that my claim is looking bad, yet they act like it's good at the same time?

if it's not good, why not push me more? seriously, what reasons does she have to hold back?

i feel like she's poking at me with a ten foot pole, idk the dynamic of it is weird as all hell

What do you think of Ranmilia's claims that one of our claims has to be "bogus"?

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 5:04 am Ted is only towny because of a pr claim that seems insanely scum sided and his claims are conveniently unverifiable.

i remember reading this yesterday and it pinged the hell out of me but i just shut up cuz i've had to respond to a thousand people pushing me off it that it's starting to become annoying

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:40 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:38 pm they've kept saying it all game that my claim is looking bad, yet they act like it's good at the same time?

if it's not good, why not push me more? seriously, what reasons does she have to hold back?

i feel like she's poking at me with a ten foot pole, idk the dynamic of it is weird as all hell

What do you think of Ranmilia's claims that one of our claims has to be "bogus"?

dunno

i don't think it's a given

If it's not Abby, it has to be Ranmilia/tedxtr, Ranmilia/RDB, or RDB/tedxtr. And the latter two pairings don't make sense at all.

at this point you'd think abby would hold more of an opinion on who out of rondo / myself is a wolf, but they just keep cruising in between

we're never w/w but it's like she doesn't even acknowledge that at all

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:32 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:19 pm

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.

it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)

Why isn't Abby a wolf? They have the least towny things going for them right now

Friend, did you read my posts from this morning where i went over this? Have you looked at TSP's iso? Abigail and TSP are not partnered, unless they pursued a masterpiece theatre plan in which TSP attempts to draw attention to her and hard bus her and somehow fails, while she approaches me in a way I have not seen a wolf dare to do in over a decade and then does nothing with it but appear uninformed.

She is unpaired with TSP, which is the most important pairing at all, and behaviourally town which is the most important factor. We're looking for wolves here, that is, people who are on a team with TSP and have knowledge of who is and is not mafia. You're repeating the "least things going for her" line like you're trying to speak it into existence as a truism- why? What exactly are you considering when you say that?