The Syndicate

if you're c4 you're allowed to continue to do this and I don't wish to insult you

mac's slot is useless if we don't know who he's protecting

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 pm Prior to this day i would organise my reads in the following order. I admit that my confidence is not strong. The percentage indicates the level of confidence I have in the read. Yes it's a bit random. I am benchmarking my current gutfeel so that I can contrast it with the findings that come out of analysis:

Akemi Hazlenut - 75%
Bottom Text - 55%
Trans Rights - 45%
Julinook - 40%
TSPIC - 30%

your numbers don't add up there are two and a half wolves here

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 12:54 am

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 12:09 am But I am glad that you agree with that because it makes the game a lot easier for you, me and everyone. I think there is always 1 between Akemi and Trans and always 1 between TSPIC and Julinook. I take Julinook and BT as town now.

I think TSPIC is outed mafia.

We sleep, make them clear someone else. I am going to BG between Julinook and BT. If I die that will tell you a great deal.

It is plausible that will encourage the mafia to actually kill the town between the three of you. But at least we're forcing them to think which will give us some information.

TSPIC dies in f5 imo.

if you're mac you're obviously a wolf for being dumb

nah you don't get to sit there after the way you've played and see the amount of analysis I just made and say shit like that that's fucked manners and I'll just policy you for it

i read that before seeing the analysis

[VOTE: tspic] aubergine

smh

ok i think the nook read is actually good but you're gonna have to explain to me why if the nook read is good then you're not mafia

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:03 am ok i think the nook read is actually good but you're gonna have to explain to me why if the nook read is good then you're not mafia

does "I made it" not count?

it makes it a good read probably but that creates problems :P

if you're gonna tell me it's one of the made wagon voters and it's not nanook

like ok the t/w read is the flimsiest

all you have managed to do if ppl are able to follow logic, is create a third dichotomy between you and I and effectively clear Nanook, except you've done so in a more agenda driven way than me and I am clearly townier than you ergo you've confirmed yourself mafia

alternatively we are mislcearing nanook and will lose to him

probs get to stepping on evidencing that if you care about this cuz I'm town and I ain't getting chopped today fam

i don't intend to chop you today that's what tomorrow is for. i think the bloc argument is shakier tbh

jpic's catching up right now he can take over

I don’t think i have ever seen my partner get annoyed.

imo the kill strongly suggests at least one powerwolf. Also, the fact that the PoE has mischopped two townies and y’all want to kill a third means the towncore is rotten to the core

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:38 am all you have managed to do if ppl are able to follow logic, is create a third dichotomy between you and I and effectively clear Nanook, except you've done so in a more agenda driven way than me and I am clearly townier than you ergo you've confirmed yourself mafia

We towntold back in d2

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 12:57 am

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 pm Prior to this day i would organise my reads in the following order. I admit that my confidence is not strong. The percentage indicates the level of confidence I have in the read. Yes it's a bit random. I am benchmarking my current gutfeel so that I can contrast it with the findings that come out of analysis:

Akemi Hazlenut - 75%
Bottom Text - 55%
Trans Rights - 45%
Julinook - 40%
TSPIC - 30%

your numbers don't add up there are two and a half wolves here

They took maths lessons with Gav

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:48 am I don’t think i have ever seen my partner get annoyed.

imo the kill strongly suggests at least one powerwolf. Also, the fact that the PoE has mischopped two townies and y’all want to kill a third means the towncore is rotten to the core

There is no towncore in this game. This game has not been operating with POE or towncore principles, there are simply players. In fact there is not even all that much discrepancy between the post counts. I do appreciate how much it benefits you as a wolf to speak as though you are a sad lil poe being victimised by the towncore though.

There has been no operating consensus that I have felt a part of in this game at all with the sole exception of Akemi and myself clearing each other (which I am now feeling like I was wrong about and have them as a wolf).

There is zero logic to your train of thought. You are using far too much flowery adjectives (bolded). Everything you are doing here is designed to manipulate and sew paranoia.

The towncore is not rotten to the core. There is however probably at least 1 wolf that is efforting sure let's go with that.

You feel extremely similarly clamped and are playing similarly to you did in the last wolf game that you got flipped as a wolf in a similar position frankly. You are not solving you are just gesturing to solve. You are not exercising discretion you are making statements.

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:52 am

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 12:57 am

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 pm Prior to this day i would organise my reads in the following order. I admit that my confidence is not strong. The percentage indicates the level of confidence I have in the read. Yes it's a bit random. I am benchmarking my current gutfeel so that I can contrast it with the findings that come out of analysis:

Akemi Hazlenut - 75%
Bottom Text - 55%
Trans Rights - 45%
Julinook - 40%
TSPIC - 30%

your numbers don't add up there are two and a half wolves here

They took maths lessons with Gav

That is not what that means. That is not meant to add up to 100%. It is the percentage of confidence that I have in them being town. You fucking nerd/snake in the grass.

then shouldn't they add up to 300?

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:00 am flowery adjectives (bolded)

ok i've probably needled mac enough but i will point out that at least one is an adverb

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:48 am

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:38 am all you have managed to do if ppl are able to follow logic, is create a third dichotomy between you and I and effectively clear Nanook, except you've done so in a more agenda driven way than me and I am clearly townier than you ergo you've confirmed yourself mafia

We towntold back in d2

yeah that's right (what did we do again)

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:23 am

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:48 am

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:38 am all you have managed to do if ppl are able to follow logic, is create a third dichotomy between you and I and effectively clear Nanook, except you've done so in a more agenda driven way than me and I am clearly townier than you ergo you've confirmed yourself mafia

We towntold back in d2

yeah that's right (what did we do again)

Shouted at the silly townies probably

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:00 am

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:48 am I don’t think i have ever seen my partner get annoyed.

imo the kill strongly suggests at least one powerwolf. Also, the fact that the PoE has mischopped two townies and y’all want to kill a third means the towncore is rotten to the core

There is no towncore in this game. This game has not been operating with POE or towncore principles, there are simply players. In fact there is not even all that much discrepancy between the post counts. I do appreciate how much it benefits you as a wolf to speak as though you are a sad lil poe being victimised by the towncore though.

There has been no operating consensus that I have felt a part of in this game at all with the sole exception of Akemi and myself clearing each other (which I am now feeling like I was wrong about and have them as a wolf).

There is zero logic to your train of thought. You are using far too much flowery adjectives (bolded). Everything you are doing here is designed to manipulate and sew paranoia.

The towncore is not rotten to the core. There is however probably at least 1 wolf that is efforting sure let's go with that.

You feel extremely similarly clamped and are playing similarly to you did in the last wolf game that you got flipped as a wolf in a similar position frankly. You are not solving you are just gesturing to solve. You are not exercising discretion you are making statements.

What I mean to say is, that the night kill strongly suggests that somebody has been miscleared. Call it manipulation or sewing fear, but our perspective is unique in that we know we’re town. Based off the counterwagon to T&T, AK and TE both ended up on BT. I really don’t care if BT says they planned to move over, i am going to call that NAI. I think there is probably one wolf max between the two in regards to TR/AK.

I also do believe BT was town simply for being the counterwagon to T&T. I suggested as much in thw last day phase

hi, i'm going to pop in and pop out because i have stuff to do around the house and it's gonna... be a lengthy process. anyways, i want to talk about the d1 wagon real quick.

two and through:
timsup2gettinserious
honey & vinegar
toopy and binoo
bottom text

bottom text:
akemi
mana
trans rights
two and through

mana:
julinook
poop explosions
tspic

okay so this is the wagon for the record. again, going to stress that i did intend to change my vote to two and through at eod, but for all intents and purposes this is the votecount.

here's my problem with this votecount: look at this and assume we're dealing with a two and through and bottom text w/w scenario. why on earth would they not try and push the vote onto mana as opposed to self-preserving on each other? in fact, it doesn't just apply to a two and through/bottom text team: it applies to pretty much any team i can think of. it feels like the wolves should've had the numbers to actually just push v!mana over here on d1, and instead it looks like we actually did just hit. so what does this mean?

here's my take, and it might be spicy: wolves didn't care about who got defenestrated on d1. why? because if they did, they would've tried pushing the vote onto a villager, and they most likely would have the numbers to do so. i don't even think it would be that outing either, honestly.

someone mentioned it, but the two and through wagon is insanely pure. it's 3 confirmed villagers and bottom text. here's also why i think this votecount probably just makes bottom text a villager: it's based off of the assumption that wolves didn't care who went over. but like, actually process what a wolf team would do on d1 if 2 of them are on the chopping block, and there's a legitimate cw onto a villager. you would think that the wolves would care, right? if they are going to self-janitor two and through anyways, why wouldn't they just bus then if we're eventually going to figure out they're a hit anyways? because we know we're v, and if bottom text is v, the two and through wagon would be... all villagers? lol? i almost think the wolves were intentionally muddying the waters here. it doesn't make sense otherwise to have a viable villager counterwagon and not at least try to push that over.

and the bottom text wagon doesn't even look that impure anyways. it's us, which we know we're a villager, mana, who's a villager, two and through, who is a wolf, and akemi. obviously if there's another wolf on the bottom text wagon it's akemi, but even if that's true, we then have to look at the mana wagon, because that wagon is guaranteed to have a wolf. unless the team is exactly akemi/bottom text, which... yeah, don't think that's a team.

julinook
poop explosions
tspic

so here's my take: i think there MIIIIIGHT be 2 wolves in here. might being the key word. like if we're assuming bottom text is a villager, and wolves don't really want anything to do with the two and through vs bottom text situation (which is weird but it seems to be the case), then doesn't it make sense for a wolf to just park here and twiddle their thumbs till eod? as another point, if there are 2 wolves on this mana wagon, it makes sense why they had a harder time trying to push mana over. at that point, they would have to switch to bottom text, and arguably it doesn't really make sense for either of these slots to switch to bottom text.

plus, if alison is already trying to hardcore kill two and through, i don't really get why nutella would try pivoting to bottom text if she were a wolf. like she knows we'll get to this position eventually as long as they play their cards right, and doesn't it just look better to be parked on two and through? just hard bus two and through, and ride the cred out to victory. what nutella did basically negated any cred her slot could've gotten. she never switched either. it's counterintuitive if akemi is a wolf. this was a very nebulous and tentative wagon folks.

i think of the 3 names, julinook probably has the least wolf equity with two and through. the other two easily could, but that assumes i've been wrong on poop explosions for a majority of the game, which... i guess is possible but god mac was villagery yesterday. i'll have to think about it.

but again, i have stuff to do so... i'll be back later and will let yall chew on this.

i feel like we're on track to not sleeping here with how much you nerds are doing

also the general mentality of reads on our slot this game has been funky

i want off this rollercoaster

(last few posts prior to the nutella post below)

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:47 pm bt legit lolcatting

i don't understand how this is a thought you had given it's pretty evident by my posts that i'm... not? and even if i was, lolcatting is nai for me

So can you tell me the rationale behind this post, @nutella/@Akemi Hazelnut?

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:33 pm i mean the team *could* be exactly tat/tspic/poop

but meh

trans rights wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:35 pm so why did katzesooa trend up for people

~mawile

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:36 pm

trans rights wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:35 pm so why did katzesooa trend up for people

~mawile

they didnt

do u wanna flash wagon there lol

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:48 pm how the fuck did the tim/hk wagon disappear

y'all lmao

banger post

too bad theres no retrospectives here

hahahaha reading manas eod1 posts again knowing they were just a panicked villager is really funny and kinda sad

tbh i think my eod1 is clearing

anyway

the mana wagon building at the speed it did

i don't think wolves coordinated jumping onto it or anything

Mana wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:55 pm voted to save myself, y'all wrong

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:56 pm [VOTE: Mana] aubergine

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:57 pm [VOTE: Mana] aubergine

idk when julinook voted they didnt post to do it

Julinook wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:57 pmMana it is

unless this is it

it probably is

i thnik in realtime these votes were like 30s apart

shrugze maybe its w/w/v but TaT was around at EoD and could have tied wagons at V/V

which conversely means that one wolf voting me over Mana keeps TaT alive

actually i vaguely remember TaT voting us pretty last second so maybe part of that last post doesnt apply since they'd have been in rand either way

I feel like every game I call something lolcatting and get confused reactions, like yeah it's exaggeration but only a little lol I did think those posts were really openwolfy at the time

I really wanna say the O word about those d1 mana votes now

"Look he said something weird lets cfd"

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:27 pm i feel like we're on track to not sleeping here with how much you nerds are doing

also the general mentality of reads on our slot this game has been funky

i want off this rollercoaster

You see why I don't bother trying to get people to play milo correctly anymore

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:59 pm I feel like every game I call something lolcatting and get confused reactions, like yeah it's exaggeration but only a little lol I did think those posts were really openwolfy at the time

idk how u can read my posts and think im openwolfing there

esooa... maybe

but if anyones gonna openwolf in a katze/esooa hydra its not fucking her cuz i can get away with it

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:02 pm I really wanna say the O word about those d1 mana votes now

"Look he said something weird lets cfd"

the o word?

owo?

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:26 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:59 pm I feel like every game I call something lolcatting and get confused reactions, like yeah it's exaggeration but only a little lol I did think those posts were really openwolfy at the time

idk how u can read my posts and think im openwolfing there

esooa... maybe

but if anyones gonna openwolf in a katze/esooa hydra its not fucking her cuz i can get away with it

yeah the copypasta ish post about her being "new" to mafia or whatever was the worst

but also the leadup to claiming set me off idk

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:26 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 2:02 pm I really wanna say the O word about those d1 mana votes now

"Look he said something weird lets cfd"

the o word?

owo?

no it's more cringe than that


(opportunistic)

I’d argue it wasn’t opportunistic because of how rapid the votes piled on.

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:27 pm i feel like we're on track to not sleeping here with how much you nerds are doing

also the general mentality of reads on our slot this game has been funky

i want off this rollercoaster

Likewise

tspic what made you think that the d1 wagon was indicative of v!bottom text yesterday?

like i can come to the conclusion now that the wagon + game state during eod1is a good look for bottom text but only now that i know two and through was for sure a wolf and mana was v

coming to that conclusion without that information is a little ????

anyways brb

please note that the n1 kill was voting for tspic on day 1 also

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 4:55 pm please note that the n1 kill was voting for tspic on day 1 also

that's not why walrus died though

they cc'd timsup2gettinserious' vig claim, that's why they died

trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 4:44 pm like i can come to the conclusion now that the wagon + game state during eod1is a good look for bottom text but only now that i know two and through was for sure a wolf and mana was v

coming to that conclusion without that information is a little ????

anyways brb

I have already explained this numerous of times.

We can assume T&T was a wolf at this point. I came to the conclusion they were probably a wolf with the toopy thing and the janitor. We had a counterwagon to T&T in the form of BT. If we believe T&T was a wolf, then there is a strong likelihood that the counterwagon was town. It’s not impossible we had w/w, but it’s an unlikelier scenario.

This is not hard stuff.

At the time, i believed mana was a hit purely because of voting analysis. I felt at the time, that mana/T&T were likelier to be the w/w partnership.

In the unlikely scenario that we had W/W wagons d1, then from my perspective the only pairing that makes sense is nook/poop due to joining the Mana wagon.