The Syndicate

Good luck tomorrow, ya scrubs.

Looks like I need a miracle to get out of the BAFTAs.

Round 3: Critics Choice Totals

Mongoose (50) - 1917 (14), Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (27), Judy (3), Awkwafina (1), Laura Dern (5)
Raz_Zaa (13) - Ford vs. Ferrari (5), The Lion King (2), Joaquin Phoenix (5), Tom Hanks (1)
JaggedJimmyJay (18) - The Irishman (15), Cynthia Erivo (1), Scarlett Johansson (2)
Timmer (32) - Jojo Rabbit (8), Marriage Story (9), The Farewell (4), Harriet (2), Rocketman (4), Leonardo DiCaprio (1), Adam Driver (1), Charlize Theron (1), Anthony Hopkins (1), Al Pacino (1)
Speedchuck (10) - Joker (9), Margot Robbie (1)
Dunya (21) - Little Women (13), Frozen 2 (2), Adam Sandler (1), Brad Pitt (5)
DharmaHelper (27) - Parasite (12), Uncut Gems (4), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2), Knives Out (3), Saoirse Ronan (1), Renee Zellwegger (5)

The bottom remaining player is now eliminated, and that is speedchuck, thanks for playing!

The next two rounds will be good days to die.

YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO JOKER GOT CLIPPED LMAO

(That being said GG Chuck)

Tomorrow or the weekend, I'm going to check when the guilds will be announcing their winners, if they happen before bafta, the guilds will be our next round...

timmer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:58 am Tomorrow or the weekend, I'm going to check when the guilds will be announcing their winners, if they happen before bafta, the guilds will be our next round...

I feel alright about this tbh

My unofficial number crunching *leads me to think* that the shock elimination of BAFTA darling Joker/Speedchuck opens the door wide enough for me to get through both BAFTA and the Guilds rounds.

That said even if I make it to Oscars, Mongoose is stacked and will probably sweep.

Yeah I think Mongoose has this locked up tight

I'll gladly take 3rd or even 4th place though given my last performance.

Ok, we are going to go with the guilds first, all but 2 of them will announce their winners ahead of the bafta ceremony, and even those 2 outliers are on the same day as bafta.

Round 4 points - Guild nominations, so far

DH (15) - Parasite (DGA,ACE,PGA,ADG,WGA,SAG), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (CDG,ADG,WGA,SAG), Knives Out (CDG,ACE,PGA,ADG,WGA), Renee Zellwegger (SAG)
Mongoose (17) - 1917 (DGA,ASC,PGA,ADG,WGA), Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (DGA,CAS,CDG,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,SAGx3), Judy (SAG), Taron Egerton (SAG), Laura Dern (SAG)
JJJ (15) - The Irishman (DGA,CAS,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,WGA,SAGx3), Maleficent 2 (CDG,ADG), Cynthia Erivo (SAG), Scarlett Johansson (SAGx2)
Timmer (22) - Jojo Rabbit (DGA,CDG,ACE,PGA,ADG,WGA,SAGx2), Rocketman (CAS,CDG,SAG), Marriage Story (ACE,PGA,WGA,SAGx3), The Farewell (ACE), Harriet (SAG), Charlize Theron (SAG), Leonardo DiCaprio (SAG), Adam Driver (SAG),Al Pacino (SAG)
Dunya (10) - Queen & Slim (DGA,CDG), Frozen 2 (CAS,ACE,ADG), Little Women (PGA,WGA),Nicole Kidman (SAG),Jamie Foxx (SAG), Brad Pitt (SAG)
Raz_Zaa (10) - Ford v. Ferrari (CAS,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,SAG), The Lion King (CAS,ADG), Joaquin Phoenix (SAG), Tom Hanks (SAG)

Feeling good about my chances in the Guilds Round. But I was high on myself last year and got popped, and Chuck was ahead on nominations before he got popped, so anything can happen.

(Although I confess I've been gaming out my chances in the final rounds and my best case scenario was Guilds going first because it means one of the higher tier teams above me between Timmer Jay and Goose have the best shot of being taken out AND the teams below me have the lowest chance of climbing above me.)

Timmer and Mongoose probably safe. I look like I might be in a bit of trouble, but I'm fortunate in that the films I have are nominated in a wide swath of the Guilds and Renee is all but guaranteed to get me to 20 points and that'll secure my spot I think.

Tied at 10 at the bottom is going to be interesting between Raz and Dunya. I think I barely beat either of them in BAFTAs. If somehow "The Irishman" bombs in the Guilds and one of them (Dunya w/ Little Women or Raz with Ford both have very good chances of getting to or above 15 points) can upset Jay, that clears the way for me.

You definitely paid the most attention this year, both Parasite and Knives Out were fairly late grabs, weren't they? Well done.

timmer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:02 pm You definitely paid the most attention this year, both Parasite and Knives Out were fairly late grabs, weren't they? Well done.

Knives Out was a draft pick of mine, I think I got it either 3rd or 4th but I had my eye on it for a while, included it on my spreadsheet pre-draft.

Parasite was a free agent pick I grabbed after some research.

Round 4 points - update

DH (28) - Parasite (DGA,ACE(2),PGA,ADG(2),WGA(5),SAG(2)), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (CDG,ADG,WGA,SAG), Knives Out (CDG(2),ACE,PGA,ADG,WGA), Renee Zellwegger (SAG(5))
Mongoose (38) - 1917 (DGA(5),ASC(2),PGA(10),ADG,WGA), Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (DGA,CAS,CDG,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG(2),SAG(4)), Judy (SAG(2)), Taron Egerton (SAG), Laura Dern (SAG(5))
JJJ (16) - The Irishman (DGA,CAS,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,WGA,SAG(3)), Maleficent 2 (CDG(2),ADG), Cynthia Erivo (SAG), Scarlett Johansson (SAG(2))
Timmer (29) - Jojo Rabbit (DGA,CDG(2),ACE(2),PGA,ADG,WGA(5),SAG(2)), Rocketman (CAS,CDG,SAG), Marriage Story (ACE,PGA,WGA,SAG(4)), The Farewell (ACE), Harriet (SAG), Charlize Theron (SAG), Leonardo DiCaprio (SAG), Adam Driver (SAG),Al Pacino (SAG)
Dunya (14) - Queen & Slim (DGA,CDG), Frozen 2 (CAS,ACE,ADG), Little Women (PGA,WGA),Nicole Kidman (SAG),Jamie Foxx (SAG), Brad Pitt (SAG(5))
Raz_Zaa (15) - Ford v. Ferrari (CAS(2),ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,SAG), The Lion King (CAS,ADG), Joaquin Phoenix (SAG(5)), Tom Hanks (SAG)

"Somebody"

And unsurprising... it was Mongoose.

With 16 points and Renee about to pull the SAG points, I think I'm locked in. If the tie holds, that will be an interesting elimination, but I suspect Little Women and Ford V. Ferrari will scoop up some points at the least.

Enough to catch Jay, and deliver yet another stunning upset? One can only hope. If that one is me. And looking to finish in 3rd place.

BIG MOVES

Updated with SAG winners!

Aren't actor wins worth 5 points?

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:45 am Aren't actor wins worth 5 points?

Yes, that's why I put a 5 next to Renee! If you mean the ensemble category, no, that is worth only 2 for its film, as I don't think any of us were carrying individual actors from Parasite.

timmer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:08 am

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:45 am Aren't actor wins worth 5 points?

Yes, that's why I put a 5 next to Renee! If you mean the ensemble category, no, that is worth only 2 for its film, as I don't think any of us were carrying individual actors from Parasite.

If nominations are worth a point each, then Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix and Renee all earned 6 not 5?

Only reason I mention so is because it puts Raz and Dunya in contention against Jay, rather than in last place.

Oh no, if they win they are now worth 5, not 5 more. If you go back to last year that's always how I tallied the points. A bp win is worth 10 but that includes the 1 pt for the nom, so its +9 more, etc.

We could change that for next year but that's hookie I've always counted them.

If that's how you've been consistently counting the points, then that's fine with me :P

Dare I say it, if Parasite wins the DGA's on the 25th I might have a snowballs chance at the Oscars.

Parasite is the most critically successful foreign language film since... maybe Crouching Tiger... it could definitely win director

Since the BAFTA will hit roughly as the Guild round ends, here's a look at the current point totals:

Mongoose (25) - 1917 (9), Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (10), Judy (3), Taron Egerton (1), Laura Dern (1), Awkwafina (1)
JaggedJimmyJay (11) - The Irishman (9), Scarlett Johansson (2)
DH (8) - Parasite (4), Knives Out (1), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (1), Saoirse Ronan (1), Renee Zellwegger (1)
Timmer (22) - Rocketman (4), The Farewell (1), Marriage Story (5), Jojo Rabbit (6), Charlize Theron (1), Leonardo DiCaprio (1), Adam Driver (1), Johnathan Pryce (1), Anthony Hopkins (1), Al Pacino (1)
Dunya (7) - Frozen 2 (1), Little Women (5), Brad Pitt (1)
Raz_Zaa (3) - The Lion King (1), Joaquin Phoenix (1), Tom Hanks (1)

C'mon Raz, make it through the Guilds baby!

Mongoose takes the DGAs! But in a shock, Raz and Ford v. Ferrari pull ahead with a win at CAS!

CAS - Ford v Ferrari = +1 more pt for Raz.
DGA - 1917 = +4 more pts for Mongoose.
ASC - 1917 = +1 more pt for Mongoose.

Point totals are updated a few posts above!

In a nail biting twist, if Raz maintains his lead heading into the last couple of guild awards, he will eliminate Dunya and all but be eliminated in the BAFTA rounds, securing the top 4 for an Oscars face off.

Except only 3 go to the final round..... Although we DID have one extra player this year, so... we never really discussed it, did we? Okay, top 4 will head to the finals!

I assumed the 1 extra player would've been trimmed in an earlier elimination if they were ever going to be trimmed at all.

prob should have been a double box office trim, but oh well, next time!

timmer wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:05 pm prob should have been a double box office trim, but oh well, next time!

Fun fact, if Jay gets caught in a 15 pt 3-Way with Raz and Dunya, Raz wins since he had fewer nominations and a higher BO?

I only have one thing accumulating any points. I deserve to die.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:14 pm I only have one thing accumulating any points. I deserve to die.

At least I can feel like I either won the first round of the draft or fell just short of Mongoose.

It looks like Dunya is gone and Raz doesn't have enough BAFTA nominations to be competitive in the round, so the BAFTAs are just for style points.

CDG - Winners were Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out and Maleficent 2, each of which just earned another point.

Boom.

Go [mention]Mongoose[/mention] !

Aaaaay Maleficent 2 got a point!

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:18 pm Go @Mongoose !

OK I see how it is.

WGA winners - Parasite and Jojo Rabbit, each gets 4 more pts to go to 5 total.
ADG winners - Parasite, Once Upon A Time inHollywood (and Avengers: Endgame and Toy Story 4) - each gets another pt to go to 2 total.

Round 4 is over! Sorry to [mention]Dunya[/mention], you have been eliminated, thanks for playing!

DH (28) - Parasite (DGA,ACE(2),PGA,ADG(2),WGA(5),SAG(2)), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (CDG,ADG,WGA,SAG), Knives Out (CDG(2),ACE,PGA,ADG,WGA), Renee Zellwegger (SAG(5))
Mongoose (38) - 1917 (DGA(5),ASC(2),PGA(10),ADG,WGA), Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (DGA,CAS,CDG,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG(2),SAG(4)), Judy (SAG(2)), Taron Egerton (SAG), Laura Dern (SAG(5))
JJJ (16) - The Irishman (DGA,CAS,ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,WGA,SAG(3)), Maleficent 2 (CDG(2),ADG), Cynthia Erivo (SAG), Scarlett Johansson (SAG(2))
Timmer (29) - Jojo Rabbit (DGA,CDG(2),ACE(2),PGA,ADG,WGA(5),SAG(2)), Rocketman (CAS,CDG,SAG), Marriage Story (ACE,PGA,WGA,SAG(4)), The Farewell (ACE), Harriet (SAG), Charlize Theron (SAG), Leonardo DiCaprio (SAG), Adam Driver (SAG),Al Pacino (SAG)
Dunya (14) - Queen & Slim (DGA,CDG), Frozen 2 (CAS,ACE,ADG), Little Women (PGA,WGA),Nicole Kidman (SAG),Jamie Foxx (SAG), Brad Pitt (SAG(5))
Raz_Zaa (15) - Ford v. Ferrari (CAS(2),ACE,ASC,PGA,ADG,SAG), The Lion King (CAS,ADG), Joaquin Phoenix (SAG(5)), Tom Hanks (SAG)