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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:02 pm
by dunya
speed may have ulterior motives, but LC is actually town. in both of your scenarios, LC is not town.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:06 pm
by Long Con
Those are both awesomely believable scenarios Kyle! I wish they were the case, I'd be proud.

Oh yeah, and after last K2, I'm finally caught up with the rest of you on K2's identity. :blush:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:13 pm
by Kylemii
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:02 pm speed may have ulterior motives, but LC is actually town. in both of your scenarios, LC is not town.
Well... yeah. In order for speed to have lied about LC being town, LC would have to be not town, unless he's only lying about the confirmation aspect.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm
by Kylemii
3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:30 pm
by Long Con
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm 3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?
MY answers would be Yes Yes No... but that's due to my subtle hint. I don't think anyone got it.

So I would then say Yes to the first one because I think someone did some convincing vote analysis on Elohcin's Day 1 vote... which would have been some risky bussing indeed. Pretty strong, could be faked.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:31 pm
by Dragon D. Luffy
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:00 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:36 pmGive me one reason why Speed would lie to protect LC.

There is only one baddie left. Not two.
I see two reasons.

1. Indie Speed claims mafia LC as confirmed civ to prevent him from being a lynch Target and ending the game, buying himself time to accomplish whatever task his win condition requires. Opportunity knocks and LC plays along.

2. Mafia Speed bluffs hard to protect himself and remove himself from the lynch priority list by soft-claiming Space Mountain which is actually LC's role, and speed knows this somehow. Speed calls "LC confirmed civ" which takes LC off the priority lynch list and also buys Speed time to do whatever his role is supposed to do to win. LC goes along with it because it appeals to his insatiable thirst for shenanigans.
I don't like 2 because he is hinting jester. Sure town doesn't have a motivation to kill a jester immediately but we don't have a reason to keep him alive either. It's why in some sites survivor claims get policy lynched. They are less of a liability than mafia, but still a liability.

I can see 1, though.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm
by dunya
Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:34 pm
by dunya
Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:30 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm 3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?
MY answers would be Yes Yes No... but that's due to my subtle hint. I don't think anyone got it.

So I would then say Yes to the first one because I think someone did some convincing vote analysis on Elohcin's Day 1 vote... which would have been some risky bussing indeed. Pretty strong, could be faked.
That someone was me. :noble:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:45 pm
by Kylemii
hmmmm alright. understood. so LC is civ.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:51 pm
by Kylemii
I mean I actually don't know what you're talking about at all but there's 0 motivation for any 3 people to lie about the same thing any more so I believe you're telling the truth so the specifics don't matter to me. :p

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:56 pm
by dunya
honestly, the 2 I can't place a role for and can't with 100% certainty say are civ are quin and ddl in that order. But I'd go back and ISO them if nijuu flips town (she won't but if).

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:58 pm
by speedchuck
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
I wonder how you did it. FMPOV, you shouldn't have been able to figure it out concretely. Unless you figured it out from what I said. (which would please me greatly)

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm
by Kylemii
speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
by speedchuck
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm
by Kylemii
so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
by speedchuck
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
by Kylemii
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:45 pm
by speedchuck
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life
Well, you are only ten. I guess DDL is a good father.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm
by Kylemii
hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:10 pm
by Long Con
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
So I was right? Like, really right? :noble: :noble: :noble: My concern is that you winning means everyone else loses. I don't know that you'll get there anyway.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm
by Long Con
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
This... this I do not get at all. Something outside the thread?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:18 pm
by dunya
Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
This... this I do not get at all. Something outside the thread?
outside the thread? no? I meant I confirmed you civ on my own accord. DDL confirmed you civ because speedchuck said you're civ.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:19 pm
by dunya
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I'd also be interested in this.

The sense of urgency you displayed after I made a case against you has disappeared. :confused2:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm
by dunya
I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:24 pm
by nutella
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life
well, I had a really vivid dream that DDL was bad... :ponder: (no really I did lol it was weird)

I think I'm missing out on some stuff re: the whole LC thing and deducing people's roles, but I have believed he's good for a while now and anyway I trust what people are saying and probably should be able to guess more people's roles now

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:26 pm
by dunya
are you keeping your vote on Quin? why is quin more likely than nijuu in your opinion, nutella?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:31 pm
by nutella
Ehh, I feel like Quin and DDL are about equally likely but probably below niju I guess. When I posted/voted late last night I really felt like niju was less likely than we thought, but your discussion since then mostly re-convinces me that she's probably the simplest answer. The lead is enough that my vote doesn't matter though so I'm keeping it on symbolically/out of laziness

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm
by dunya
So your suspect after nijuu is one of Quin and DDL.

I might disagree if nijuu flips town, I have another theory. :ponder:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
by speedchuck
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:17 pm
by speedchuck
Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:10 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
So I was right? Like, really right? :noble: :noble: :noble: My concern is that you winning means everyone else loses. I don't know that you'll get there anyway.
I am saying NOTHING.

Your concern is invalid, but I guess you would assume I'd say that. Your concern doesn't make sense with this setup.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:19 pm
by speedchuck
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm So your suspect after nijuu is one of Quin and DDL.

I might disagree if nijuu flips town, I have another theory. :ponder:
I would like to hear this theory.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:28 pm
by Dragon D. Luffy
nutella wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:24 pm
well, I had a really vivid dream that DDL was bad... :ponder: (no really I did lol it was weird)
:scared:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
by Dragon D. Luffy
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:54 pm
by dunya
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:00 pm
by dunya
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
so what was the urgency during last lynch?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:03 pm
by Dragon D. Luffy
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:54 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.
Ok sorry thought it was a stab.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:04 pm
by Kylemii
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:54 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.
Oh, I didn't realize that was addressed to me.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:37 pm
by speedchuck
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:00 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
so what was the urgency during last lynch?
I thought sig was bad.
I thought scum could nightkill.
Friggin SEVEN failed deaths this game

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:33 pm
by nijuukyugou
Spoiler: show
I'll be the roundabout
The words will make you out 'n' out
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
The marmots dance and sing
They make the mountains really ring
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One marmot over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four before my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
I will remember you
Your silhouette will charge the view
Of distance atmosphere
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
Even in the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One mile over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four marmots my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
Along the drifting cloud
The eagle's searching down on the land
Catching the swirling wind
The marmot sees the rim of the land
The eagle's dancing wings
Create as marmots spin out of hand
Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
We stand to lose all time
A thousand marmots by in our hand
Next to your deeper fears
We stand surrounded by a million marmots

Ma ma ma ma marmot

Image

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:35 pm
by Epignosis
nijuukyugou wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:33 pm
Spoiler: show
I'll be the roundabout
The words will make you out 'n' out
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
The marmots dance and sing
They make the mountains really ring
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One marmot over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four before my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
I will remember you
Your silhouette will charge the view
Of distance atmosphere
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
Even in the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One mile over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four marmots my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
Along the drifting cloud
The eagle's searching down on the land
Catching the swirling wind
The marmot sees the rim of the land
The eagle's dancing wings
Create as marmots spin out of hand
Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
We stand to lose all time
A thousand marmots by in our hand
Next to your deeper fears
We stand surrounded by a million marmots

Ma ma ma ma marmot

Image
:clap: :haha:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:52 pm
by dunya
nijuukyugou wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:33 pm
Spoiler: show
I'll be the roundabout
The words will make you out 'n' out
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
The marmots dance and sing
They make the mountains really ring
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One marmot over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four before my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
I will remember you
Your silhouette will charge the view
Of distance atmosphere
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
Even in the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One mile over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four marmots my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
Along the drifting cloud
The eagle's searching down on the land
Catching the swirling wind
The marmot sees the rim of the land
The eagle's dancing wings
Create as marmots spin out of hand
Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
We stand to lose all time
A thousand marmots by in our hand
Next to your deeper fears
We stand surrounded by a million marmots

Ma ma ma ma marmot

Image
:puppy: :puppy: :puppy: that's so beautiful, why are you a monster

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:04 pm
by Kylemii
I had to listen to the video to be sure that the real lyrics weren't "marmot" and "mountain"

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:26 pm
by Epignosis

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:24 pm
by nijuukyugou
Not a monster - just a mountain! I mean Blooper. A mountain Blooper.

Okay, but seriously, folks, here are some of my thoughts, based on a bit of ISO work and thinking today. Hope it's sufficient.

DDL - Suspects a lot of people that people agree are good. Interesting posts.
Dunya - I like her style. To the point, getting shit done. I especially like her stuff here.
Kylemii - Can't remember much, but votes were pretty good in my lookback. Agreement with this post.
Long Con - I always think he's bad. Gives me the heebie-jeebies, especially here
nijuu - Cute as a fucking button: So adorable.
nutella - I believe I've mentioned I don't like her votes just by looking at polls, but I like the conviction behind the votes. As in, not voting with the crowd, but voting because she believes in the vote, despite popularity. Big plus. She words it best here
Quin - It's either him or speedchuck. See here and here
speedchuck - Votes aren't great, and fewer good vibes from him than nutella, especially here

That's about it. Whew. Goodnight, folks.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:26 pm
by Long Con
Actually, you make some really good points.

And by points, I of course mean marmots.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:30 pm
by Kylemii
nijuu good or bad, you replaced into a tough situation in this game and i'm glad your response to adversity is to post a lot of pictures of cute and weird mammals. I hope we can play together again soon.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:16 am
by Marmot
Night post incoming.

But before it does, just want to send my love to the best ninja blooper mountain that ever crawled out of the sea to grace this land of the marmots. Well sung!
:clap:

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:22 am
by Marmot
Marmots Come out of the Sky

"And they stand there! I will remember you!"

So sang the marmots as nijuukyugou was trampled to the ground and flung into the sea.



Nijuukyugou has been lynched. She was...

Spoiler: show
Image
Sutter Buttes, USA (2,122 ft/647 m) - The Sutter Buttes are referred to as the smallest mountain range in the world. These buttes form a circular range with just a 10 mile diameter. The Sutter Buttes can hide a fellow Little Mountain inside each night, decreasing their vote count the following day by one.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:23 am
by Quin
yay

Re: Mountain Mafia [END]

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:28 am
by Marmot
The game has ended! The Big Mountains are victorious.


The winners are colonialbob, Dragon D. Luffy, dunya, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005, Kylemii, Long Con, malakim2099, Mesk514, nutella, Quin, Sloonei, Spacedaisy