Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
What do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:25 pm it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?
Yeah, I don't read host posts.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:07 pmThat's not really a derpclear, it's not like that information was available outside of that post.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:48 pm why not speed? you ask? well, I don't believe that speed would be the kind of person to fake derps. simple enough.
I was stuck between Speed/Tony, and i hadnt considered all marmot worldsLong Con wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:51 amYeah I caught that too.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:22 amyou clearly have a pick smhchardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:34 am I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.
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Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?
and you think i am the person to fake derp clears? I didnt realize it was 4 to flip either lol.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:48 pm why not speed? you ask? well, I don't believe that speed would be the kind of person to fake derps. simple enough.
I think all viable teams contain Tony tbh...chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:34 am I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.
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Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?
Where is LC Scum motivation in the plays he has been making lately tho?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:54 pm ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.
can you elaborate on this?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:57 am Does anyone recall Martin/Marmot feeling anti-aligned on D2, just with the back and forth that was going on? Or was that just me?
we know you think this we were just talking about itchardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:19 pmI think all viable teams contain Tony tbh...chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:34 am I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.
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Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?
Marmot and speed are super unlikely, Long con I think motive wise I dont have to worry about b/c the only way he lives tomorrow is if he is bussing Tony. I dont think scum will gamble on bringing town!LC to F3 if Tony is their partner.
yes im assuming 2 scum. Its safer then assuming one scum this roster.
voting for me is scummychardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:22 pmWhere is LC Scum motivation in the plays he has been making lately tho?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:54 pm ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.
but can't you?chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:31 pm I cant see into your mind and know you are town and LC isnt. Come on now.
LC/Marmot probably doesn't work.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:12 pm Esooa (3): TSP, made, Chuck
Marmot (3): Chardonnay, Mac, LC
TSP (2): martin, marmot
Chuck (1): esooa
@Esooa has died, and flips...town!
If you have night actions get them to me, d2 will start somewhere around 24 hours from now ish. Possibly sooner.
@chardonnay
@Long Con
@MacDougall
@Made
@Marmot
@MartinGG99
@speedchuck
@TonyStarkPrime
Posts caps for the night are these +40:
828482C5-EBDE-4CFF-9E8D-CDEEF5339688.jpeg
How likely does Marmot distence a buddy the way he did near eod2?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm Marmot is sorta a wildcard. Maybe it can be speed marmot
chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:25 amI noticed there was two+ a couple hours left in the day when this vote was made.
I already had a vote there so this put speed to two votes vs made's three votes. Thats a risky maneuver for scum to make. Since a Speed scum flip would make made look clean, me look clean, and LC as well. So Marmot was really limiting long term option if he were scum with Speed.
I think i can rule them out as a team then.
it will be funny if this ends up being a "why is everybody ganging up on me" tale.speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:35 pm Man the baddies are really coming out of the woodwork to jump on lil old me.
You guys have grievances you wanna talk about? Those would be good.
hmmmTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:43 pm there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"
Finallychardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:28 am I mean Marmot couldn't have counted on Made egging him on happening. For all he knew Made was going to start Ob!towning before/after then vote.
Nothing really stands out to me as it being Marmot and Speed together this game.
[VOTE: Tony] aubergine
if no hammer then I can mechanically rule out speedXmarmot, and confirm scum within TonyXLC. IF hammer then GG, and apologies for the missplay.
It was under an hour left and nobody else was budging, so what?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:43 pm there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"
Answer my question @TonyStarkPrime.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:26 pmWhat do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:25 pm it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?
I didMarmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:00 amAnswer my question @TonyStarkPrime.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:26 pmWhat do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:25 pm it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:54 pm ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.
Forgive me for finding the latter part a weak defense.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:59 amIt was under an hour left and nobody else was budging, so what?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:43 pm there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"
I also already mentioned it was part of my role flavor which is why I hammered.
He could be town if the mafia are already voting for him. Honestly, with hammer at 4, that entire tell is useless. Imagine, the only time that the tell says anything is if:Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:05 am So! How is Tony still alive?
If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.
So he can't be town.
Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.
I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.
Let's finish this attention-starved game.
I think the only argument that he's not town is that it's not me and speedchuck. Technically you and/or chard could be wolvesLong Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:05 am So! How is Tony still alive?
If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.
So he can't be town.
Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.
I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.
Let's finish this attention-starved game.
Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.
And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.
I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.
I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).
This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.
I'll entertain this notion, who's Long Con's partner in this case?speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:15 pm [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine
(I am willing to switch to TSP right now and end this day but I want to weigh this option)
Shit, I forgot hammer is 4, not 3. My bad.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:08 pmHe could be town if the mafia are already voting for him. Honestly, with hammer at 4, that entire tell is useless. Imagine, the only time that the tell says anything is if:Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:05 am So! How is Tony still alive?
If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.
So he can't be town.
Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.
I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.
Let's finish this attention-starved game.
Case - three town, two mafia.
two town vote for the other townie. Mafia can hammer with two more votes. This is the only way a double trouble surprise hammer can happen.
So how is tony still alive? Well, either tony is mafia, or LC is mafia, or Char is mafia. This literally only rules out speed/marmot, and even then only if we were both online at the same time to hammer.
Let's just ignore this technique methinks.
I'm going to diverge and disagree with Martin's final take. I think the LC push on Martin was NotGoodtm. It started from Martin causing a tie to happen on D1. LC called that scummy because it was bad for town. 'Town has no motivation to do that,' he said. I posited (and still do) that MAFIA has no reason to do that either! It was a derp play, or a forgetful moment, or whatever, which we now know.Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:44 pmIt's a little sketchy. Maybe Martin is town and Made is not. He agreed with me maybe too easily on Martin, especially when I think most other players disagree with my points on him.chardonnay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:49 pm I was under the impression that Martian response's impacted you badly, because in part, he was AtEing. Tho it was Martin who specify mentioned that he was AtEing out of frustration. Maybe you didn't perceive it that way at all.
Sorry, if i keep making incorrect assumptions about how you play. Thats a bad habit of mine w/ regaruds to players i have minor to moderate exp with.
How do you feel about Made's vote on Martin when he thought it was EoD now? I also thought it was curious, but wasnt sure if there was info there to break down.
The above post sort of takes all credibility and thus, responsibility, away from LC. It doesn't *look* like a bad post, but the end effect (subtly intended effect?) is that we can drop all of the above and not worry so much about LC's cases one way or another.Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:42 am I'd say the one town member out of Tony, chard, and chuck needs to make themselves known in a real way somehow.
It's not Martin or Marmot because I came to suspect them on my own and I'm just probably wrong. I think I might be able to start using my wrongness as a positive solving tool.
I don't like the 'understanding' take here. "Wait, I wasn't thinking about the way you might see it, since of course, you can't know how town I am. You HAVE to think that. I get you." It just feels manipulative, on a base level, but also like it's trying really hard not to give off that feeling.Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.
And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.
I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.
I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).
This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.
No, I was just operating on a false assumption of hammer 3.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:11 pmEither you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.
And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.
I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.
I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).
This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.