Fargo Mafia [Game Ends]

[staypositivefriend]

a quick thought:

if we live in a world where the POE is primarily inaccurate (like, let's say that 3/4 of tonystarkprime/tedextr/nanook/al_sama are villagers), then falcon mostly accurately fits the role of someone who signal boosted the consensus without going out of his way to push on anyone in particular. if falcon is a wolf then his play today allowed him to lead us down a bad direction while still keeping his hands clean. i'm thinking of posts like https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p765418, where falcon agreed with the TSP/ted chops without stating a preference

i am still undecided on falcon's alignment, but i wanted to voice this concern now

[Hally]

i’m not insulting you. this is your first post about sloonei in the game:

I want Sloonei to be scum because I'm town and I want to beat the world champion

you said it yourself

[Hally]

a quick thought:

if we live in a world where the POE is primarily inaccurate (like, let's say that 3/4 of tonystarkprime/tedextr/nanook/al_sama are villagers), then falcon mostly accurately fits the role of someone who signal boosted the consensus without going out of his way to push on anyone in particular. if falcon is a wolf then his play today allowed him to lead us down a bad direction while still keeping his hands clean. i'm thinking of posts like https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p765418, where falcon agreed with the TSP/ted chops without stating a preference

i am still undecided on falcon's alignment, but i wanted to voice this concern now

i agree. like i said, i don’t really think falcon cared at all who died today. he was just kind of piggybacking pff the poe others created

[Sloonei]

"he isn't helping the town win condition" is the most vague reasoning for a wolfread that i've seen in any mafia game i've played ever

i think that sloonei is a villager, but i am open to entertaining tinfoil/skepticism about him. i have not seen any tinfoil against him that is not coaxed in overly vague and generic language

it’s vague because he made it up. he’s arbitrarily decided to wolf read sloonei since the start of the game because he wants to beat the champ. he has yet to provide any coherent or concrete reason why sloonei is a wolf

i agree that this seems to be his motivation - do you believe that oddmerta would approach sloonei in such a way if he was a villager? is oddmerta the type of villager to "make things up"?

i don't know the answer, but i'm asking you because if your description of oddmerta's push on sloonei is accurate, then i find it difficult to imagine him doing that from a villager mindset

honestly? odd seems like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude himself into believing it. he could also be a wolf doing it. it’s hard to say

Don't insult me

Don’t insult us.

[Sloonei]

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

[Oddmerta]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

[Hally]

you... literally said you were doing that

[staypositivefriend]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

the best revenge that you could get right now is by casing sloonei and proving to us that your read is real

[Hally]

i’m just taking your words at face value. if that’s not the case can you explain more clearly why sloonei is a wolf?

[Oddmerta]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

the best revenge that you could get right now is by casing sloonei and proving to us that your read is real

That's the second best revenge I can get

[Hally]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

the best revenge that you could get right now is by casing sloonei and proving to us that your read is real

That's the second best revenge I can get

what’s the first best?

[staypositivefriend]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

the best revenge that you could get right now is by casing sloonei and proving to us that your read is real

That's the second best revenge I can get

this post has ominous energy

[Sloonei]

I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

I am sorry you feel insulted. I do not think you are bad at mafia. I have seen you play well.

But if you feel insulted, try to look at it from our point of view: you said in one of your first posts that you “want” me to be mafia. You have continued to present that as though it is a real read without ever giving an indication that there is actual substance to back it up. You have just put forth that I am doing nothing to help the civilian win condition. Given the effort I have put into this game, not to mention the effort I have put in to engaging in fruitless dialogues with you, I find your accusation to be insulting as well.

I don’t think that towns filled with players insulting one another are going to win many games. You do not need to worry about my alignment right now. I have a habit of self-resolving. If you are town, please work with us. That is all we have been asking since the start of the game.

[Sloonei]

Why do I have a feeling Odd’s about to attempt to vig me?

[Hally]

Why do I have a feeling Odd’s about to attempt to vig me?

it sounded something like that to be honest

[Hally]

i think odd has made it pretty clear he’s not going to engage in good faith about his sloonei read. continuing to talk about it seems pointless until he actually presents some reasoning

[Alison]

I'm doing finals and stuff but I have a soul read on odd as town from the way he played that last interaction. Just seemed like omega tilted town imo

[Alison]

just nuke al and dom and so forth and you should be fine tbh. I dont expect to see daylight tomorrow so my legacy is to follow the POE.

[Hally]

i wouldn’t be surprised if odd is a villager tbh. he’s picked a weird hill to die if he’s a wolf. i wish he would contribute more so i could feel better about that read though

[Sloonei]

i wouldn’t be surprised if odd is a villager tbh. he’s picked a weird hill to die if he’s a wolf. i wish he would contribute more so i could feel better about that read though

Yeah, to be clear I'm pretty sure he's town at this point.

[Sloonei]

I talked about reaffirming town reads yesterday but did not actually do anything about it. I think that should be a goal over the next ~48 hours. Not just for me, but for all of us. I do not disagree with Alison's proposal to swing away at the players in the bottom of our POE. The odds of all of dom/al/nanook being town are low. What this phase has taught us, though, is that the game is not quite as easy as we were making it out to be, and that means at least one person has fooled us. Double checking our town reads seems like the most effective way to remedy that.

Now, as for methods to do a mass sweep of players who are widely read as town in a multiball game... I don't know.

[Sloonei]

Mac's Guide to Scum Hunting in a Multiball Environment

Obviously the main thing to consider in a multiball environment is that the mafia are encouraged to scum hunt. Very good wolves know that it's actually pro their win con to, as normally, kill townies and push against town but the temptation to be sincere in hunting is overwhelming so in most compositions multiball environments feature an environment where everyone is scum hunting and every push in sincere. This causes what I dub the "Syndicate 2018 GOC Effect". Because everyone is scum hunting, and the mafia factions don't have a specific goal of gaslighting and exploiting townies to push the wrong places, the general thread sentiment is much more sound than it ordinarily is. Consensus POE's are likely to be very accurate.

How to find wolves in this environment beyond just ordinary POE can seem tricky, but it's actually quite easy if you focus on solving compartmentalized teams as opposed to "just wolfy". In actuality those that tend towards solving for base level reasons as opposed to heavily focused on team building are >rand mafia in this environment.

So we have a flipped mafia, now what? Well the normal rules still apply. Marmot probably wasn't in anti spew until late so he probably wasn't pushing on his teammates much, so you can use normal rules to check for who he spews as not his teammates. What's different is you can't rely on those reads to also be town and in actuality they are more likely to be mafia than town. The flipped wolf started the game with a more sound POE when it comes to hunting the other team than we did. So his reads are a great place to start looking for wolves from the other team. When it comes to reading those that the flipped wolf defended or town read, you need to check the agenda behind it. Was he genuinely townreading that person? Because that is a thing they can actually do. Remember usually wolves can TMI a town, but they can't here. They can only have genuine townreads. What is the agenda behind the town read? Was the person under any pressure? Is there any benefit to that person's survival in the flipped wolf town reading them? If so, maybe that's a team mate.

So questions that require answering:
1. Who did Marmot push on?
2. Who that he pushed on buried him?
3. Can we build a consensus small POE (less than 5 players) and then get everyone to draw a line in the sand on how they feel about that person?
4. Who has spewed themselves town by repeatedly focusing on multiball solving since the flip
5. Did anyone spew themselves mafia by TMIing that they knew it was multiball?

Just gonna bump this.

Mac's point about the scum teams starting with a smaller POE pool feels very useful for me right now.

[Sloonei]

Anyone down for tring to build a 5-person POE as an exercise?

al_sama, nanook, and dom are unavoidably going to be in it, I think. Though some people seem to be treating nanook as self-resolving with his "I have a role" claim. But meh. If I am looking at this game big picture, then nanook is one of the three people I am most suspicious of.

The remaining two slots are trickier. My gut wants to throw Falcon in there as a signal that we need to re-evaluate, but that's hasty. I suppose JPIC belongs. He feels like a comfortable #4.

The fact that I am now struggling to name a 5th in the pool of remaining players is worrying.

"Clears":
Hally
Alison
Esooa
Michelle
Ted

Pseudo-clears:
Oddmerta
KZA

Me:
Me

That leaves the following group of people:
Long Con
falcon
fingersplints
BoKnows
staypositivefriend

So... which person(s) from that list can be crammed into shrunken POE pool?

[Oddmerta]

I'm not a vig, I would of shot Al if I was

[Sloonei]

I'm not a vig, I would of shot Al if I was

This would probably be my shot as well.

[Oddmerta]

Dom probably vig if we even have one, only thing that makes sense

[staypositivefriend]

Anyone down for tring to build a 5-person POE as an exercise?

al_sama, nanook, and dom are unavoidably going to be in it, I think. Though some people seem to be treating nanook as self-resolving with his "I have a role" claim. But meh. If I am looking at this game big picture, then nanook is one of the three people I am most suspicious of.

The remaining two slots are trickier. My gut wants to throw Falcon in there as a signal that we need to re-evaluate, but that's hasty. I suppose JPIC belongs. He feels like a comfortable #4.

The fact that I am now struggling to name a 5th in the pool of remaining players is worrying.

"Clears":
Hally
Alison
Esooa
Michelle
Ted

Pseudo-clears:
Oddmerta
KZA

Me:
Me

That leaves the following group of people:
Long Con
falcon
fingersplints
BoKnows
staypositivefriend

So... which person(s) from that list can be crammed into shrunken POE pool?

i have the opposite problem - there are too many names that i have lingering concerns about that i find it difficult to narrow my POE down to five names

why do you feel that esooa's claim makes her mechanically clear? i have the same question for KZA. it is possible that both of those names are villagers, but i do not see a reason to mechanically treat them as town at the moment

[Long Con]

Like... don't *believe* me. Go into Sloonei's ISO and search for 'TSP' and decide for yourselves. I went in just to see what Sloonei's position on TSP has been, and what I found was more incriminating than I expected.

I know it’s moot now, but like you may want to also search “tony” while you’re in there next time, boss.

If you're going to be smug and condescending about it, I'm going to assume that you have some "Tony" posts in mind which would have disproven my case, had I seen them. Would you mind just popping them up here to save your pal some time, chief?

Does @Long Con still suspect me after tony flipped town?

I suspected you before I erroneously connected you to Tony, so no, that error doesn't suddenly make you towny to me.

"he isn't helping the town win condition" is the most vague reasoning for a wolfread that i've seen in any mafia game i've played ever

i think that sloonei is a villager, but i am open to entertaining tinfoil/skepticism about him. i have not seen any tinfoil against him that is not coaxed in overly vague and generic language

it’s vague because he made it up. he’s arbitrarily decided to wolf read sloonei since the start of the game because he wants to beat the champ. he has yet to provide any coherent or concrete reason why sloonei is a wolf

It's kind of ridiculous, isn't it? For one town member to do this to another, on a whim. I find that if I shift my focus to view them as on the same wolf team, it makes more sense, like something pre-discussed in the chat "oh, you're the champion? Nice, nice, ok, here's what I'm going to do, lol..." I don't know that anyone's ready for that kind of talk without a little more info about Troopers comes out.

Alison has missed her ability twice now, and I believe it was missed honestly, but that doesn't stop my mind from putting that together with the lack of a couple more trooper hints, and imagining a world where Alison, Oddmerta, and Sloonei are a team... and KZA actually just happens to be a Trooper. Too crazy though. I'm a little drunk.

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

[Alison]

LC + falc I guess.

[Alison]

Maybe LC + finger

[Long Con]

LC + falc I guess.

Maybe LC + finger

[Oddmerta]

Like... don't *believe* me. Go into Sloonei's ISO and search for 'TSP' and decide for yourselves. I went in just to see what Sloonei's position on TSP has been, and what I found was more incriminating than I expected.

I know it’s moot now, but like you may want to also search “tony” while you’re in there next time, boss.

If you're going to be smug and condescending about it, I'm going to assume that you have some "Tony" posts in mind which would have disproven my case, had I seen them. Would you mind just popping them up here to save your pal some time, chief?

Does @Long Con still suspect me after tony flipped town?

I suspected you before I erroneously connected you to Tony, so no, that error doesn't suddenly make you towny to me.

"he isn't helping the town win condition" is the most vague reasoning for a wolfread that i've seen in any mafia game i've played ever

i think that sloonei is a villager, but i am open to entertaining tinfoil/skepticism about him. i have not seen any tinfoil against him that is not coaxed in overly vague and generic language

it’s vague because he made it up. he’s arbitrarily decided to wolf read sloonei since the start of the game because he wants to beat the champ. he has yet to provide any coherent or concrete reason why sloonei is a wolf

It's kind of ridiculous, isn't it? For one town member to do this to another, on a whim. I find that if I shift my focus to view them as on the same wolf team, it makes more sense, like something pre-discussed in the chat "oh, you're the champion? Nice, nice, ok, here's what I'm going to do, lol..." I don't know that anyone's ready for that kind of talk without a little more info about Troopers comes out.

Alison has missed her ability twice now, and I believe it was missed honestly, but that doesn't stop my mind from putting that together with the lack of a couple more trooper hints, and imagining a world where Alison, Oddmerta, and Sloonei are a team... and KZA actually just happens to be a Trooper. Too crazy though. I'm a little drunk.

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

Bolded - now that's something scum me would do

[Long Con]

Missed this one in my last quotes thing.

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

Why, pray tell?

[Hally]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

[Long Con]

Like... don't *believe* me. Go into Sloonei's ISO and search for 'TSP' and decide for yourselves. I went in just to see what Sloonei's position on TSP has been, and what I found was more incriminating than I expected.

I know it’s moot now, but like you may want to also search “tony” while you’re in there next time, boss.

If you're going to be smug and condescending about it, I'm going to assume that you have some "Tony" posts in mind which would have disproven my case, had I seen them. Would you mind just popping them up here to save your pal some time, chief?

Does @Long Con still suspect me after tony flipped town?

I suspected you before I erroneously connected you to Tony, so no, that error doesn't suddenly make you towny to me.

"he isn't helping the town win condition" is the most vague reasoning for a wolfread that i've seen in any mafia game i've played ever

i think that sloonei is a villager, but i am open to entertaining tinfoil/skepticism about him. i have not seen any tinfoil against him that is not coaxed in overly vague and generic language

it’s vague because he made it up. he’s arbitrarily decided to wolf read sloonei since the start of the game because he wants to beat the champ. he has yet to provide any coherent or concrete reason why sloonei is a wolf

It's kind of ridiculous, isn't it? For one town member to do this to another, on a whim. I find that if I shift my focus to view them as on the same wolf team, it makes more sense, like something pre-discussed in the chat "oh, you're the champion? Nice, nice, ok, here's what I'm going to do, lol..." I don't know that anyone's ready for that kind of talk without a little more info about Troopers comes out.

Alison has missed her ability twice now, and I believe it was missed honestly, but that doesn't stop my mind from putting that together with the lack of a couple more trooper hints, and imagining a world where Alison, Oddmerta, and Sloonei are a team... and KZA actually just happens to be a Trooper. Too crazy though. I'm a little drunk.

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

Bolded - now that's something scum me would do

It does sound like fun on a bun.

[Long Con]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

[Sloonei]

i have the opposite problem - there are too many names that i have lingering concerns about that i find it difficult to narrow my POE down to five names

why do you feel that esooa's claim makes her mechanically clear? i have the same question for KZA. it is possible that both of those names are villagers, but i do not see a reason to mechanically treat them as town at the moment

I definitely have concerns about a lot of other people. But once I get beyond those 4 names, I also have reasons to want to trust everyone remaining.

[Hally]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

then why did you say it?

[Long Con]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

then why did you say it?

Because maybe I'm right?

[Sloonei]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

then why did you say it?

Drunk

[staypositivefriend]

KZA is a name that i would like to bring back into conversation. how much do we trust him? do we think he's a villager? is there any mechanical basis for him to be trusted?

[Long Con]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

then why did you say it?

Drunk

Hey!

[Hally]

lol

[Long Con]

KZA is a name that i would like to bring back into conversation. how much do we trust him? do we think he's a villager? is there any mechanical basis for him to be trusted?

Trooper claim. Otherwise... he just never really hit the PoE too hard at all.

[Oddmerta]

Recently as scum I told everyone to write 100 word essays on why they are town and made it look like it was an ability when really I just wanted to mess with everyone. A townie with a post restriction of 60 words or less died soon after which made my bs look completely legit

[KZA]

I'm KZA

[Hally]

KZA is a name that i would like to bring back into conversation. how much do we trust him? do we think he's a villager? is there any mechanical basis for him to be trusted?

i have mo idea. others here have a lot of recent experience with his village game so they should weigh in. i really don’t know him

[Sloonei]

KZA is a name that i would like to bring back into conversation. how much do we trust him? do we think he's a villager? is there any mechanical basis for him to be trusted?

I have been lumping kza/falcon/bo into a grouping because they all come from the same site and i don't have a ton of experience with any of them. When I look at the interactions I have had with each of them individually, KZA stands out as being the most authentic.

[Long Con]

Recently as scum I told everyone to write 100 word essays on why they are town and made it look like it was an ability when really I just wanted to mess with everyone. A townie with a post restriction of 60 words or less died soon after which made my bs look completely legit

That sounds awesome, I love it.

[Sloonei]

i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w

COOL, you're probably right.

then why did you say it?

Drunk

Hey!

sorry i snarked at you earlier.