nijuukyugou wrote:I get good vibes from Zebra, despite the aggressive playstyle (which is normal for her :P ) MP, you have asked on at least two occasions about people's opinion of Zebra, and because of that, it appears as though you're pushing for something without jumping into it. Care to elaborate on your own feelings about her? (and apologies if I've missed your opinion if you've stated it)
nijuukyugou, I snipped most of your post just to refer to what is addressed to me.
This post is in regards to
zebra and is suggested to be read by
everyone re: their reads of zebra and
game-breaking players in general.
The reasons I've asked on at least two occasions what people think of zebra all stem from the fact that zebra is the most commonly read town player in the thread at the moment. She also is the most commonly read town player with regards to players voluntarily giving an opinion of her, and that's something to be noted because she's producing content at near-JJJ like levels so far. Why? I have a few specific elaborations.
1) Beware placing too much on "Effort" = Town. Although it typically can be a huge indicator and should be considered, it isn't always a sure thing, and assuming it while dropping healthy skepticism can potentially break the game for the civilians.
If zebra lasts a significant portion of the game and continues producing content at this rate, that's amazingly awesome if she's town and I couldn't appreciate it more, but it can be game-breakingly dangerous if zebra is pulling the supatown long haul as mafia. I realize Golden, myself, Mac, and possibly others (such as Metalmarsh) can produce a similar conundrum, but zebra is unarguably out-contenting everyone so far.
I played and witnessed some games in the last block of 10 games on RYM, and with Maffies (RYM Mafia Awards) happening now, I've been informed of the games I missed. This has relevance because there are three occasions that immediately come to mind where mafia players ended winning in LYLO because they had supatowned and players
stopped fully investigating and questioning their behavior: Strawhenge in RYM #81, rundontwalk in RYM #86, and Diiny in RYM #89.
Want another key example that happened in recent memory, except from The Syndicate? Golden in Economics. This will be remembered for many good reasons. By all means the civilians s
hould have won that game due to sheer effort expended and success in lynching every mafia except one, but they didn't. G-Man got lynched in LYLO and Golden successfully ran away with the game. While JJJ and others put up a fight in terms of analyzing and interrogating behavior, Golden got away with it precisely because he played a brilliant game. The clincher is that if players, myself definitely included (I tunneled way too hard on G-Man before my death, distracting from Golden and other potential suspects), had pushed Golden more and put his behavior under the microscope, he could have been uncovered. Instead, G-Man's obvious "mafia" behavior was really a wacky civilian.
So while it's great that people are town reading her for effort, let's be a bit wary about automatically assuming she is town
purely because of effort, and continue to push her to fully explain her thoughts
so that we can determine whether this content is genuine. That should be the driving force behind these town reads -- genuine town effort in quality and quantity, not just quantity. So I'm trying to discern what is driving these reads.
Nonetheless, on the flipside,
I cannot emphasize enough that I do
not suggest scrutinizing her unfairly or by default because she is producing so much content. As we've seen in many games, players who produce more content, particularly in the first few stages of the game, can be much easier to be "pinged" by and suspected because with each bit of incremental content there is a bit more that someone can scrutinize, either consciously or subconsciously (be bothered by). Every time someone makes public an opinion, it can be potentially misinterpreted by a civilian or manipulated by the mafia, so producing opinionated content is a risky endeavor. That on its own can indicate a civilian mindset, especially since mafia have to fabricate all of the content, but it's precisely why players need to speak up when they think there is fabrication and explain why they think there is.
2) Pressing players to express opinions on one player who is producing so much content that almost automatically warrants a GTH opinion, particularly this early in the game, forces players into a situation where they have to throw out an opinion, which then serves as evidence later in the game.
Regardless of zebra's alignment, her sheer amount of effort thus far has forced players to either voluntarily or by request (typically mine so far) give an opinion on her. This is a good way to get even players who are either (1) civilians legitimately having a difficult time digesting and analyzing all of the content this early or (2) mafia cautiously attempting to withhold opinions in the first couple of game phases to express an opinion, something that can be analyzed for connections to zebra (if she is mafia), unwarranted changes in opinion, and any other matter of sincerity later in the game.
The more that player X posts (in this case, zebra), particularly if that player has produced a
ridiculously high amount of content, the harder it gets for either civilian or mafia to not form an opinion on player X, whether it is sincere (the former) or nefarious (the latter).
Dom was wondering what the point of making so many GTH and endless ISOs at this early stage in the game is, with regards to zebra. If she is civilian, I'd imagine she is trying to force herself to analyze and form opinions on as much content as possible, so that she can attempt to solve the game as quickly as possible. Not only that, but producing so much content then allows her to engage others in the thread actively about all of that content. If she is mafia, then it's all about flooding the thread with misdirection and playing the supatown long haul, which is a risky game, but can be rewarding if performed incredibly well and town stops questioning (see examples above).
3) I am personally having trouble discerning zebra's true intentions, and I want the feedback from others to help me.
By asking people what their GTH is of a certain post or player, I'm trying to get people to actively think about what's going on in the thread as much as possible (refer to 2), but it is as much that as I am trying to get feedback. If there's something I've noticed over the years, it's that I perform much better by feeding off of others. Unfortunately, that means I've had many terrible civilian games. This past year, I've consistently noticed that I performed better as a civilian when engaged in the thread by players who employ these kinds of methods (JaggedJimmyJay, Sloonei, and from our own camp, FZ., Golden, etc.), and in witnessing those players I've also realized that they employ a style I've always tried to attain as a civilian but never could quite hold on to (usually I end up tunneling or I get lynched or for whatever reason I go off the deep end). Consequently, I'm trying to revamp my approach this game employing those methods to see how I fair with it.
4) Civilians need to work together as much as they can, nonetheless with the understanding that this game is all about deception.
Lastly, (and I'll keep this one brief) I've noticed that civilians lose too many games here because they fail to attempt to engage each other in the thread, instead defaulting to the "I'm all alone, trust no one, hold onto my thoughts and content because no one else deserves to see them". I don't want that to happen here, so I'm actively trying to prevent it.
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Yikes, I had no intention of making a post
that long, but it is what it is. I would say "I hope that answers your question", but I'm certain it did. :P If somehow it didn't, let me know, and I can clarify on any of these points (or anything missing).
You can find
my GTH read on zebra here on my
revised Day 1 rainbow list. I have her as a slight town read.
You mentioned I could be perceived as pushing something. However, that would be in direct conflict with the slight town read I have for zebra on my rainbow list (as well as other mentions I've had of her), so not only would it be a terrible mafia strategy but it's a very manipulative one that could be uncovered very quickly (since you made the suggestion yourself already).
I don't feel I have the time or the need to update my rainbow list, so consider my opinion of zebra unchanged. Matt F's SK flip doesn't affect my reads of players substantively since he was on his own, and for analyzing voting records his flip can be assumed to be civilian-like (mafia from both times still could have bandwagoned onto him or attempted to save a teammate, not knowing he would flip SK).
Alright, well, see you folks at some point in Day 2. I've burned way too much time!