The Syndicate

LoRab's last post thorwing ashade at me because I came in with a theory after an extremely quiet day did not sit well with me, no.


SVS, what do you think of LoRab being the Scarecrow?

I am so the suck at role assignment, I always have better reasons for thinking someone is NOT a role than someone is.

I suppose it is as possible as anyone else. I did not like her pointing back at DH. I agree with her about the lying. I agree with her Robin point. Targeting people with getting rid of a confirmed (basically) civ is super hard unless they are a baddie with a kill.

I think with the info we have, this is pulling a needle out of a haystack. GTH, if I had to vote right now it would be Enrique. By bringing it up he built in his own WIFOM, and got us to start tunneling in on each other, perhaps lynching each other willy nilly while giving him the BOTD. It would be a smart move. But that is total supposition on my point, based on what *I* would do. And unlike DH, I don't think,as players, Enri & I have much in common.

Then, after him, I have no freaking clue.

But really, it could be anyone

Right now I am re Scarecrow:

Enrique
Everyone else
DH
Me

I will vote with the group unless it is DH or me

I am not scarecrow. I realize there is circumstantial evidence but it leads to the wrong conclusion. Dom, I was not throwing shade at you. I was questioning your thinking in order to further discussion. Your overreaction makes me wonder more about you.

DharmaHelper wrote:

LoRab wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Just pointing out that one of the reasons we lynched a crooked cop last lynch was because there was a general consensus I am not the Scarecrow.

There was? Can you point that out, because I don't remember seeing that in the thread.

Several people did not vote for me because they found it hard to believe I was the Scarecrow. Pretty well documented.

I wouldn't call a few people a consensus, but I get your point.

I'm not going to be around much today. I have services shortly and then I will be spending the afternoon doing some set up and then shopping for a huge carnival tomorrow (to celebrate the holiday of Purim--that's the holiday where we dress up in costumes, drink, and eat cookies and often have carnivals. Best holiday ever. The holiday is actually Wednesday but we're having the carnival tomorrow. So I'll give a meta defense now.

I'm not bad. I'm not scarecrow. I'm not any other indy. I'm civ. Lynching a civ at this point (me or any other civ for that matter) gives 2 players the biggest benefit (other indies may benefit, as well): Falcone (obviously) and Scarecrow.

Wayne Manor doesn't want a dead civ. Civs shouldn't want a dead civ. I'm fairly confident no one who has been scarecrowed has to have me dead to win.

It is in Scarecrow's best interest to lynch a player whom he has not targeted, because it makes the percentage of people targeted higher and brings him closer to his win condition.(which is why I've been eyeballing those who push an agenda of only looking at those who haven't been targeted).

It's a double edged sword, by hunting for scarecrow, we're helping scarecrow unless we are lucky enough to find him. But, at the same time, if we go after Falcone and the game ends, then a ton of players who deserve to don't win because they haven't finished their scarecrow condition.

You're part of the group that has only looked at those not targetted Lorab.

Matt wrote: I was thinking maybe it was Dom, too, but I don't think Dom would march into the thread a day after we started to take the Scarecrow hunt seriously and announce "oh hai guys i was scarecrow'd too haha".

I mean he did follow that up by basically excluding everyone who the Scarecrow has targeted as possible Scarecrow suspects. I find that suspicious. I actually think he could be Scarecrow tbh.

I've been watching that space you were talking about Bullz. Is the dom = scarecrow your crazy theory?

Yes. It's a hunch that grew as I was catching up earlier.

There isn't a huge amount to it, hence the crazy, but I do find it suspicious that "Hey I was scarecrowed last night also anyone who says they've been scarcrowed probably isn't him". It's just a gut feeling mostly for now.

I think it's a theory worth thinking about, but Lorab is a better choice for scarecrow based on what I posted earlier.

I'll have a look at your LoRab post now then.

Typhoony wrote:I went through LoRabs posts, mostly to see if she could be Falcone. But I hadn't seriously considered LoRab as scarecrow yet... and I think that makes more sense.

- It would explain why MP was scarecrowed later than his failed lynch. She was out of the country for the first couple weeks of the game so not a lot of time to keep up, it would make sense that she had not realized that MP basically outed himself until later on.

Not sure I understand this unless you mean why people weren't targeted to need MP dead? In which case I can't quite remember which day MP was outed so I dunno.

Typhoony wrote:- She never really mentioned any of the Scarecrowed peeps (Golden, Mac, Matt, MP, Bullz or Enrique) until today, when she says Enrique is her top Falcone suspect. She has not pushed this beyone the one post, however.

Well fair enough, this is a reasonable point. She has been something of a lower poster this game though and it's possible the same could be said of others.

Typhoony wrote:- Her top 3 list for Scarecrow on Day 10 was DH/Dom/me, all not scarecrowed at the time. Today, Dom has been scarecrowed, and her gut read for Scarecrow is DH. She seems to now waffle on Dom.

This is a good point.

Typhoony wrote:- There is quite a bit of circumstantial evidence (her saying she thinks Scarecrow is more likely to be a male player) but you could probably find that for anyone who's talked about the Scarecrow so I'm hesitant to look too much into that.

Strictly speaking any given role is more likely to be a male player but I know that's not the point. My argument that Dom is suspicious because of his comments regarding who is or isn't Scarecrow is pretty similar.

I see where you're coming from but I still feel more strongly about Dom.

Mp was targeted by scarecrow n7. His failed lynch was d4 I think. Since Robin is a role no player normally needs dead, why not immediately target him as scarecrow?

Unless you were not paying a lot of attention, perhaps because you were out of the country like Lorab was.

Typhoony wrote:Mp was targeted by scarecrow n7. His failed lynch was d4 I think. Since Robin is a role no player normally needs dead, why not immediately target him as scarecrow?

Unless you were not paying a lot of attention, perhaps because you were out of the country like Lorab was.

Well Matt was targeted to need MP dead on night 5 going off the lists people have posted. Whoever Scarecrow hit on night 6 is presumably dead, and I don't think Scarecrow is allowed to make people want their own role dead. No idea what happened to him the night he hit me, maybe he was redirected or his power was messed with in some other way but the fact Matt has needed MP dead since night 5 goes against what I think you're trying to say.

Basically Scarecrow may not have targeted the Boy Wonder himself until night 7, but he definitely set up at least one person to need him dead between that night and his initial lynch fail.

LoRab wrote:I am not scarecrow. I realize there is circumstantial evidence but it leads to the wrong conclusion. Dom, I was not throwing shade at you. I was questioning your thinking in order to further discussion. Your overreaction makes me wonder more about you.

Overreaction?
I made one post where I questioned your intent.

Bullzeye wrote:There isn't a huge amount to it, hence the crazy, but I do find it suspicious that "Hey I was scarecrowed last night also anyone who says they've been scarcrowed probably isn't him". It's just a gut feeling mostly for now.

But it ISN'T all I've been talking about? I have spun a few theories around, I commented on teh possibility of LoRab. I've discussed Enrique possibility. I'm trying to play a game. Discussion has gone way down. You are cherrypicking here.

Bullzeye wrote:

Typhoony wrote:I went through LoRabs posts, mostly to see if she could be Falcone. But I hadn't seriously considered LoRab as scarecrow yet... and I think that makes more sense.

- It would explain why MP was scarecrowed later than his failed lynch. She was out of the country for the first couple weeks of the game so not a lot of time to keep up, it would make sense that she had not realized that MP basically outed himself until later on.

Not sure I understand this unless you mean why people weren't targeted to need MP dead? In which case I can't quite remember which day MP was outed so I dunno.

Typhoony wrote:- She never really mentioned any of the Scarecrowed peeps (Golden, Mac, Matt, MP, Bullz or Enrique) until today, when she says Enrique is her top Falcone suspect. She has not pushed this beyone the one post, however.

Well fair enough, this is a reasonable point. She has been something of a lower poster this game though and it's possible the same could be said of others.

Typhoony wrote:- Her top 3 list for Scarecrow on Day 10 was DH/Dom/me, all not scarecrowed at the time. Today, Dom has been scarecrowed, and her gut read for Scarecrow is DH. She seems to now waffle on Dom.

This is a good point.

Typhoony wrote:- There is quite a bit of circumstantial evidence (her saying she thinks Scarecrow is more likely to be a male player) but you could probably find that for anyone who's talked about the Scarecrow so I'm hesitant to look too much into that.

Strictly speaking any given role is more likely to be a male player but I know that's not the point. My argument that Dom is suspicious because of his comments regarding who is or isn't Scarecrow is pretty similar.

I see where you're coming from but I still feel more strongly about Dom.

Bullz, you are picking data to fit a conclusion you've already made. I have discussed many other possibilities other than the one you perseverate on.

Dom wrote: But it ISN'T all I've been talking about? I have spun a few theories around, I commented on teh possibility of LoRab. I've discussed Enrique possibility. I'm trying to play a game. Discussion has gone way down. You are cherrypicking here.

Show me where I said it was all you've been talking about.

Dom wrote: Discussion of Typh's LoRab case snipped
Bullz, you are picking data to fit a conclusion you've already made. I have discussed many other possibilities other than the one you perseverate on.

The post you quoted wasn't even about you, it was about my opinion on Typh's LoRab case.

Where you literally said you suspected me more.


Bullz, you are saying that I am focussing on only people who say they haven't been targeted, but that simply isn't the case.

Isn't it though? It's true for today at least, looking through your posts I don't see where you've called out anyone individually save for LoRab after she called you out. Literally your posts go from "I've been scarecrowed" to "Juliets? DH? Enrique?" I'll grant you Enrique is a Scarecrow victim but it's not as if you put any substance behind that query. Then you make a post implying that Scarecrow suspects should be selected only from the pool of people he hasn't yet targeted (a pool which, conveniently enough, no longer includes you) and then directly accuse LoRab after she points this out.

In fact I feel pretty strongly about this and don't think I can be convinced otherwise, so I'll be *Voting Dom* now to get this out of the way.

What a development is this.

Okay, guys. Here's the thint. I can guarantee you I am not the Scarecrow, the exact same way I told you I wasn't Nero's partner. That is not how I play. Like, sure, SVS can say "I created my own WIFOM situation" but it's simply the truth here. I don't fuck around like that. I wouldn't have taken such a risk as bussing my teammate on Day 3 for no reason or making the conversation about the Scarecrow for no reason. Neither of those actions did ANYTHING to benefit me. First, well obviously I wasn't Nero's teammate, but now, the Scarecrow was not being discussed, I was not being discussed (in fact I was commonly brought up as one of the most trusted players). The best argument I have seen anyone make against me is that I could've been Falcone trying to distract from a Bubbles lynch, and I'll grant you that is a good point. But let me reemphasize this... I would never play like this as the Scarecrow. I don't make these kind of inefficient moves.

As a Scarecrow, you know what I would've done? First of all, I would've never skipped a night. You can be sure I was toxin'd on Night 9 because that's the night Mac died, and Mac had already strongly implied he was Scarecrow'd before. If I was lying, surely somebody else could've called me out. I would not waste a night for an unnecessary WIFOM, if my win condition was to have over half of the living player hallucinating by endgame.

Second, the targets. Why would I target Golden on Night 1? He and I had already clashed early in the game, and back to this point, I don't create completely unnecessary connections to my role like this one. Do you know how much simpler it is to just avoid the people you fight with and then not be brought up at all? Yeah. Maybe in another game I could've killed him or something, but with a role like the Scarecrow, targetting him doesn't do ANYTHING to benefit me and just adds me on a list.

Another thing I wouldn't have done? Targetting MP, then asking people to kill MP. Repeating all my points here, about how I like to play efficiently and don't make moves against my own win con. As the Scarecrow, I would want MP alive by the end, as well as anyone that I had targetted. I would think Robin is the last role I would name here, since nobody would need him dead otherwise and obviously lynching/killing him is just a big distraction for everyone. I would want to trim down the fat with fat worth trimming. Get rid of inmate roles or even GCDP/Mafia roles that bring the game closer to endgame. Because I need to make sure I hit enough people who will survive before I myself die as part of some unrelated bullshit. I would be making my bets from early on and work on those goals from that moment onwards.

You guys can be sure I didn't build my entire game night by night on creating WIFOMs. I may be a little unorthodox but I'm not a completely unreasonable person. If I'm telling you that the Scarecrow's moves are not my style, it's because they're not. I don't create situations that I could easily avoid.

Doth the lady protest too much?

she dothn't

Lorab looks the worst to me tbqh.

I don't think Dom is the Scarecrow either, I don't think he would lie about being targeted last night. He's been a little more all over the place recently, and normally I'd find something fishy about that... but I still don't think he's lying.

I've been reading LR as civ for a while, and even though I do kinda like Typh's post on her, I'd have to do an ISO before adding her to my primary suspects list.

I stick by the notion that we wouldn't regret lynching one of Matt and DH. Matt kinda brings up a good point in that trying to cast suspicion on MP doesn't make much sense as Scarecrow or Falcone, but it's still super shady to try to get him lynched even when he believes he's a civvie. Maybe save him for later but I really don't think Matt is a good guy here.

I definitely think Dom looks worse than LoRab. IMO the most damning part of Typh's case is the point about MP, which falls apart when you realise that we have confirmation Scarecrow was making people need MP dead shortly after his failed lynch, regardless of how long it took to target MP himself. That shows that Scarecrow was here and paying attention at the time of MP's role becoming obvious.

Typhoony, a question about your Lorab case. You said that she now waffles on Dom since he got scarecrowed - or says he did - last night. Doesn't it make sense for her to waffle on him given the circumstances (him saying he's been scarecrowed)? I don't understand why that is a point not in her favor. What am I missing?

Sorry for the double post but it occurred to me Typh may not be around. Bullz i know you said it was a good point so maybe you can answer my question.

You know what? I can't. You're right. It would make sense for her to be waffling on Dom now that he claims to have been Scarecrowed.

Enrique wrote:I stick by the notion that we wouldn't regret lynching one of Matt and DH. Matt kinda brings up a good point in that trying to cast suspicion on MP doesn't make much sense as Scarecrow or Falcone, but it's still super shady to try to get him lynched even when he believes he's a civvie. Maybe save him for later but I really don't think Matt is a good guy here.

Excuse me? I never believed MP to be a civvie because he is not a civvie.

Enrique, I think you're thinking of the name "Robin" and you auto go "oh civvie", but no. Robin is an independent. A civ friendly indy who shares some civvie interests, sure, but an independent nonetheless.

Regardless, after Golden showed some class by admitting he needed Mac dead and not going after him, I felt like a dirtbag and stopped going after MP myself. It's ridiculous that I felt bad anyway, considering...yup, MP is not a civilian.

And again, if I was Falcone, I would've never brought MP up in thread and I would've NK'd his ass, no joke.

DH - Do you think SVS is a civvie? I'm not asking you if she's Scarecrow or Falcone, I'm just asking if you think she's civvie.

I'd love to be contributing more to this, but I can't really and looking at the deadline I may need to vote before I head off to preach. I feel like there are no guarantees here. No-one looks terrible, everyone's theories ultimately hang on their own gut instincts about how the players would act. I think there is a chance it could be any of the leading candidates people are casing.

I'm voting LoRab. I feel like its the best I can do with my vote in the circumstances. Good luck with whichever way you end up going, guys.

juliets wrote:Typhoony, a question about your Lorab case. You said that she now waffles on Dom since he got scarecrowed - or says he did - last night. Doesn't it make sense for her to waffle on him given the circumstances (him saying he's been scarecrowed)? I don't understand why that is a point not in her favor. What am I missing?

Scarecrow does not want to lynch the people that are scarecrowed.
Lorab suspected dom when he was not scarecrowed.
Now Dom is scarecrowed and she waffles.
To me, that makes sense from a scarecrow perspective. I feel like you're looking at it from a different one.

Matt wrote:

Enrique wrote:I stick by the notion that we wouldn't regret lynching one of Matt and DH. Matt kinda brings up a good point in that trying to cast suspicion on MP doesn't make much sense as Scarecrow or Falcone, but it's still super shady to try to get him lynched even when he believes he's a civvie. Maybe save him for later but I really don't think Matt is a good guy here.

Excuse me? I never believed MP to be a civvie because he is not a civvie.

Enrique, I think you're thinking of the name "Robin" and you auto go "oh civvie", but no. Robin is an independent. A civ friendly indy who shares some civvie interests, sure, but an independent nonetheless.

Regardless, after Golden showed some class by admitting he needed Mac dead and not going after him, I felt like a dirtbag and stopped going after MP myself. It's ridiculous that I felt bad anyway, considering...yup, MP is not a civilian.

And again, if I was Falcone, I would've never brought MP up in thread and I would've NK'd his ass, no joke.

DH - Do you think SVS is a civvie? I'm not asking you if she's Scarecrow or Falcone, I'm just asking if you think she's civvie.

lol god quit the outrage you know exactly what i mean

Welcome to day zero

I have paranoia re: Enrique being Scarecrow, but I think Typh's case on LoRab makes the most sense currently, so I'll vote there. Sorry if you're not Scarecrow though, LoRab.

No one ever listens to me...

Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

This is probably the most difficult lynch of the game; I feel like we're just shooting around in the dark.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

I take comfort in the fact I won't be the only one who loses because nobody agreed with me. I know it's not a huge case but it is something I feel strongly about and I have already pointed out what I think is a pretty big hole in the case for LoRab being Scarecrow.

Bullzeye wrote:

No one ever listens to me...

I listened. I feel like I've been pursuing Dom for days and I've always felt something is off about him. If the lynch goes that way, I won't be surprised if you are right. But, equally... I just feel like in some ways its a turkey shoot.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I have paranoia re: Enrique being Scarecrow, but I think Typh's case on LoRab makes the most sense currently, so I'll vote there. Sorry if you're not Scarecrow though, LoRab.

I feel pretty strongly that Enrique is not the Scarecrow. His defence is pretty on point, for me. I don't really understand why Enrique would have basically created this entire discussion about finding the Scarecrow if it was him.

Typhoony wrote:

juliets wrote:Typhoony, a question about your Lorab case. You said that she now waffles on Dom since he got scarecrowed - or says he did - last night. Doesn't it make sense for her to waffle on him given the circumstances (him saying he's been scarecrowed)? I don't understand why that is a point not in her favor. What am I missing?

Scarecrow does not want to lynch the people that are scarecrowed.
Lorab suspected dom when he was not scarecrowed.
Now Dom is scarecrowed and she waffles.
To me, that makes sense from a scarecrow perspective. I feel like you're looking at it from a different one.

OH! You're right I wasn't looking at it from that perspective. Thats a pretty interesting observation and isn't in Lorab's favor.

Bullzeye wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

I take comfort in the fact I won't be the only one who loses because nobody agreed with me. I know it's not a huge case but it is something I feel strongly about and I have already pointed out what I think is a pretty big hole in the case for LoRab being Scarecrow.

This post makes me wonder if Lorab and Bullz are some sort of Falcone/Thorne or Falcone/Catwoman pairing, and Bullz is telling us the game is about to end with a lot of losers if we lynch Lorab.

Hrm.

Matt wrote:

Bullzeye wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

I take comfort in the fact I won't be the only one who loses because nobody agreed with me. I know it's not a huge case but it is something I feel strongly about and I have already pointed out what I think is a pretty big hole in the case for LoRab being Scarecrow.

This post makes me wonder if Lorab and Bullz are some sort of Falcone/Thorne or Falcone/Catwoman pairing, and Bullz is telling us the game is about to end with a lot of losers if we lynch Lorab.

Hrm.

I have no idea what LoRab's role is, but I'm 100% sure she isn't Scarecrow. What night was it she targeted you to need MP dead? Five? Yet Typh himself says she wouldn't have been around to know MP's role had been figured out by that point.

Bullz - Do you think Dom would pretend to be scarecrow'd right after the thread started talking about getting the Scarecrow? That's the only thing holding me back from voting him.

Also Matt if I were Thorne I'd have picked you to support as quickly as I possibly could, so you can cross that one off the conspiracy list.

Linki - Doing so made it very easy for Dom to suddenly claim Scarecrow victims couldn't possibly BE Scarecrow, so yeah I do think that.

Bullzeye wrote:

Matt wrote:

Bullzeye wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

I take comfort in the fact I won't be the only one who loses because nobody agreed with me. I know it's not a huge case but it is something I feel strongly about and I have already pointed out what I think is a pretty big hole in the case for LoRab being Scarecrow.

This post makes me wonder if Lorab and Bullz are some sort of Falcone/Thorne or Falcone/Catwoman pairing, and Bullz is telling us the game is about to end with a lot of losers if we lynch Lorab.

Hrm.

I have no idea what LoRab's role is, but I'm 100% sure she isn't Scarecrow. What night was it she targeted you to need MP dead? Five? Yet Typh himself says she wouldn't have been around to know MP's role had been figured out by that point.

She posted both Day Five & Night Five, though

S~V~S wrote:

Bullzeye wrote:

Matt wrote:

Bullzeye wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry Bullz, I just don't have any large reason to believe Dom is Scarecrow over anyone else at this point, and he is reading genuine to me.

I take comfort in the fact I won't be the only one who loses because nobody agreed with me. I know it's not a huge case but it is something I feel strongly about and I have already pointed out what I think is a pretty big hole in the case for LoRab being Scarecrow.

This post makes me wonder if Lorab and Bullz are some sort of Falcone/Thorne or Falcone/Catwoman pairing, and Bullz is telling us the game is about to end with a lot of losers if we lynch Lorab.

Hrm.

I have no idea what LoRab's role is, but I'm 100% sure she isn't Scarecrow. What night was it she targeted you to need MP dead? Five? Yet Typh himself says she wouldn't have been around to know MP's role had been figured out by that point.

She posted both Day Five & Night Five, though

This proves Typh wrong just as much as it does me in all fairness. If she was around then she probably could tell that MP's role had been made obvious. Typh says Scarecrow not targeting MP himself til night 7 is evidence for LoRab being Scarecrow as she maybe didn't know what had happened until then.

Seriously I don't know why I feel like I'm being pushed into defending LoRab. I don't care if we lynch her tomorrow as long as we lynch Scarecrow today and I'm convinced Dom is Scarecrow.

I am not trying to argue with you, tbh, you remind me of me in LOST Again, when I was so sure about you and no one believed me, I had to beg Nutella & Wilgy to vote for you.

Linki, Well, then, maybe he is wrong. Do you have a different role inmind for LoRab? Are you worried sheis last Falcone?