Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
What task was that?
Oh, I guess one thing I didn't mention above that gives a bit of weight towards scum!Urist: Symmetry. I think all the non-wastelander non-enclave, non-exactly-1-by-design factions would have exactly 2 people in them if Urist is scum here, which makes a bit of sense. Granted, if any faction should have only one, it is Redding since our non-enclave wincon only needs one person deadSeanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:09 pm Okay, so thoughts before I start digging into ISOs.
If Urist is mafia, then the lack of NK whatever night that was is still unexplained. Since Chop guessed wrong on Alison, it seems pretty likely that scum didn't try to NK Alison (also if there was reason to believe she was slaver, idk why they would anyways?). Urist did give me some weird vibes at times around this, but since no other protective roles have popped up, and TSP's claimed role can't protect, I have to do some pretty big mental gymnastics to make the world make sense with scum!Urist.
On the other hand, when I got into the thread, TSP seemed to have reasonable towncred, and many people were reading him as town. I asked about this a few times, and most people weren't really willing to go into detail, which I understand but I think is pretty unfortunate at this point. SInce my arrival in the thread though, I think TSP has done very little, and I know some of the people who were heavily townreading him when I first came in had moved him to the upper PoE before death, so idk if his early game towncred should be given too much weight here. I was also REALLY hoping someone alive could confirm his claim, and I think it doesn't look good that he claimed to give stuff to Nook and Sloonei, but they both have been dead for quite a while. I also think it is at least a little weird that if TSP had doubts about Poison or Syn, that TSP didn't claim sooner when people were clearing my slot for being the only Redding alive, but I suppose I should withold judgement on that until I actually see some of how TSP interacted with my slot before my arrival in it.
TSP, you said you thought Nook used the invention you gave to him on Made. Can you find whatever Nook said to make you think that and quote it by any chance?
Urist, I think maybe you did this at some point, but can you detail all your actions (night, target, and possibly some thoughts as to why you did what you did?
TSP, can you do the same? I know you mentioned your actions the other day, but I think maybe hearing why you decided on the targets you did would help. Also TSP I'd like to know why you used all your actions in the first two nights.
Right now I am definitely leaning towards voting TSP over Urist, but I am going to try to read as much of both your ISOs before I commit to anything.
It was over a month ago I don't really remember. I gave some details as to why I chose who I chose when I shared, but I'll restate approximately why: nanook is good around mech and was pretty town and wasn't gonna get shot, sloonei was really town. You might say "well tsp, isn't this a contradiction? why did you target someone who wasn't gonna get shot and then target someone who was gonna get shot?" I refer you to the above note: it was a month ago. I seem to recall believing that there was some reason that sloonei wouldn't get shot night 2. Maybe he was being pressured, and I thought scum might try to push him, ergo, not getting shot? who knows. I used my shots on nights 1 and 2 because you should always use your powers early. and also, inventor takes a night to get going. no reason to wait, maximize utility by maximizing the odds that the person you target is alive for two-three days.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:09 pm Okay, so thoughts before I start digging into ISOs.
If Urist is mafia, then the lack of NK whatever night that was is still unexplained. Since Chop guessed wrong on Alison, it seems pretty likely that scum didn't try to NK Alison (also if there was reason to believe she was slaver, idk why they would anyways?). Urist did give me some weird vibes at times around this, but since no other protective roles have popped up, and TSP's claimed role can't protect, I have to do some pretty big mental gymnastics to make the world make sense with scum!Urist.
On the other hand, when I got into the thread, TSP seemed to have reasonable towncred, and many people were reading him as town. I asked about this a few times, and most people weren't really willing to go into detail, which I understand but I think is pretty unfortunate at this point. SInce my arrival in the thread though, I think TSP has done very little, and I know some of the people who were heavily townreading him when I first came in had moved him to the upper PoE before death, so idk if his early game towncred should be given too much weight here. I was also REALLY hoping someone alive could confirm his claim, and I think it doesn't look good that he claimed to give stuff to Nook and Sloonei, but they both have been dead for quite a while. I also think it is at least a little weird that if TSP had doubts about Poison or Syn, that TSP didn't claim sooner when people were clearing my slot for being the only Redding alive, but I suppose I should withold judgement on that until I actually see some of how TSP interacted with my slot before my arrival in it.
TSP, you said you thought Nook used the invention you gave to him on Made. Can you find whatever Nook said to make you think that and quote it by any chance?
Urist, I think maybe you did this at some point, but can you detail all your actions (night, target, and possibly some thoughts as to why you did what you did?
TSP, can you do the same? I know you mentioned your actions the other day, but I think maybe hearing why you decided on the targets you did would help. Also TSP I'd like to know why you used all your actions in the first two nights.
Right now I am definitely leaning towards voting TSP over Urist, but I am going to try to read as much of both your ISOs before I commit to anything.
What is the Falcon thing that Grogu did?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:16 pm stolen from marmot:
Day 1
c4e5g3d5 - Slaver day-vig
DrWilgy - Vault City standard nightkill?
Esooa - Enclave standard nightkill
[this spot intentionally left blank -- actual VC kill? vig shot?]
Day 2
staypositivefriend - Enclave standard nightkill
[this space intentionally left blank but KZA claimed a block on mac n2 so like ok]
Day 3
Sloonei - Enclave standard nightkill
KZA - ?
[this space intentionally left blank]
Day 4
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 5
[this space intentionally left blank]
Day 6
Epignosis - Frank Horrigan janitored nightkill
Day 7
reywaS / Kylemii - Enclave standard nightkill
Grogu - Joshua vig
Day 8
Spacedaisy / sprityo - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 9
MartinGG99 - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 10
MartinGG99 - Enclave standard nightkill
OTHER THINGS THAT CAN STOP KILLS IN THIS SETUP:
Alison's bulletproof vest (accounts for n3 miss or n1 miss depending on how you look at it -- probably stopped a night kill from Mac, betting on n3)
Mac's doctor ability (accounts for n1 miss)
KZA's block (accounts for n2 miss)
Enclave doctor, blocker, whatever (cannot account for day 5 unless conspiracy theory below)
However, if Sean is town, then it must be that Alison's bulletproof vest either stopped the n5 kill (which is implausible), or that Enclave shot X and docced X simultaneously, or something else here is wrong.
Let's assume the best case: mac never shot, wolves never figured out who Alison was before n5. this is possible. in this case, however, the wolves would have figured out who alison is on n5, presumably avoiding catastrophe? idk.
actually. maybe they did and that's why chop went from alison is slaver to alison is not slaver, because he didn't believe it before and he did believe it after. Then also the wolves vig shot Wilgy day 1 because he claimed doctor. this is a step away still; grogu needed information to do the whole falcon thing. so assume the last wolf is the tracker/blocker. grogu claims the info cause team is disorganized, no one claims anything that makes sense because ?.
There is, afaict, only one other possible case where Syn is telling the truth (and ergo urist is lying): Mafia doc and shoot the same person in the same night. now, this would be a stupid thing to do, but this mafia has shown itself to do stupid things. I'm trying to figure out if I should consider this case.
But outside of mechanics, I'm just not sure if I can really reevaluate on all this. I didn't really ever read Urist's iso yesterday, I'll give it a fair shake today. But don't know how much will come of it.
I will note the context of a wolf team member dedicating all of his thread energy to berating me for several days as a possible reason for my more abrasive tone.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:51 pm @Urist How well do you know TSP meta-wise?
He starts talking about how bad the wolf team is as early as D2, and is still talking about it now. I've only seen him as town and I don't remember him ever talking bad about the wolves, granted my experience is very limited. I point this out simply because I think many people would not really talk bad about the wolves if they were town because it can come off as kind of rude, but might do it as a wolf because it is different since the wolves clearly know it is an act. IDK TSP well enough to make a judgement call on this, but I did find it weird that even as early as D2, TSP is talking about wolves making questionable decisions and not playing optimally etc.
Second shower thought: Why did you post this HUGE amount of data about what happened every night when the only relevant point you made was about was the night without a kill? Is TSP solving here, or just trying to look solvy?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:16 pm stolen from marmot:
Day 1
c4e5g3d5 - Slaver day-vig
DrWilgy - Vault City standard nightkill?
Esooa - Enclave standard nightkill
[this spot intentionally left blank -- actual VC kill? vig shot?]
Day 2
staypositivefriend - Enclave standard nightkill
[this space intentionally left blank but KZA claimed a block on mac n2 so like ok]
Day 3
Sloonei - Enclave standard nightkill
KZA - ?
[this space intentionally left blank]
Day 4
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 5
[this space intentionally left blank]
Day 6
Epignosis - Frank Horrigan janitored nightkill
Day 7
reywaS / Kylemii - Enclave standard nightkill
Grogu - Joshua vig
Day 8
Spacedaisy / sprityo - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 9
MartinGG99 - Enclave standard nightkill
Day 10
MartinGG99 - Enclave standard nightkill
OTHER THINGS THAT CAN STOP KILLS IN THIS SETUP:
Alison's bulletproof vest (accounts for n3 miss or n1 miss depending on how you look at it -- probably stopped a night kill from Mac, betting on n3)
Mac's doctor ability (accounts for n1 miss)
KZA's block (accounts for n2 miss)
Enclave doctor, blocker, whatever (cannot account for day 5 unless conspiracy theory below)
However, if Sean is town, then it must be that Alison's bulletproof vest either stopped the n5 kill (which is implausible), or that Enclave shot X and docced X simultaneously, or something else here is wrong.
Let's assume the best case: mac never shot, wolves never figured out who Alison was before n5. this is possible. in this case, however, the wolves would have figured out who alison is on n5, presumably avoiding catastrophe? idk.
actually. maybe they did and that's why chop went from alison is slaver to alison is not slaver, because he didn't believe it before and he did believe it after. Then also the wolves vig shot Wilgy day 1 because he claimed doctor. this is a step away still; grogu needed information to do the whole falcon thing. so assume the last wolf is the tracker/blocker. grogu claims the info cause team is disorganized, no one claims anything that makes sense because ?.
There is, afaict, only one other possible case where Syn is telling the truth (and ergo urist is lying): Mafia doc and shoot the same person in the same night. now, this would be a stupid thing to do, but this mafia has shown itself to do stupid things. I'm trying to figure out if I should consider this case.
But outside of mechanics, I'm just not sure if I can really reevaluate on all this. I didn't really ever read Urist's iso yesterday, I'll give it a fair shake today. But don't know how much will come of it.
Also this seems like bs: I had an associative read on both you and Jack off of Chop on day 2 and I had a town read on Jack on day 1.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:57 pm okay, four pages of TSP's iso to go! Only... 20... more...
Once I read all of it, I'll have more to say, but initial thoughts, TSP interacts a TONNNNN with Chop and Jack, and less with others. I'm going to be very curious to see where TSP's suspicion of Jack goes since it seems to have evaporated by the time I got into the thread, even though right now he is definitely pushing them as his main reads pretty hard early on. Is TSP just SPOT ON this game, or is this TMI? We find out in 46 hours!
You did throw my slot around occasionally as well, I do concede that. My point remains though - Jack (and even me if you want to go there) seemed to have fallen off your radar, even as Chop was outed. I haven't gotten that far in the story yet, so I am curious to see how it goes.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:33 pmAlso this seems like bs: I had an associative read on both you and Jack off of Chop on day 2 and I had a town read on Jack on day 1.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:57 pm okay, four pages of TSP's iso to go! Only... 20... more...
Once I read all of it, I'll have more to say, but initial thoughts, TSP interacts a TONNNNN with Chop and Jack, and less with others. I'm going to be very curious to see where TSP's suspicion of Jack goes since it seems to have evaporated by the time I got into the thread, even though right now he is definitely pushing them as his main reads pretty hard early on. Is TSP just SPOT ON this game, or is this TMI? We find out in 46 hours!
Okay, fair. I didn't see the "stolen from Marmot" thing at the top.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 pm because I just copied and pasted from marmot and he had all of it. i even made the unimportant days tinier
Protected Nanook on the night after he counterclaimed Made, for that reason. That was the night Sloonei and KZA died.
the stream of consciousness text is mine, all of the /killed bys/ are marmots but I changed some.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:39 pmOkay, fair. I didn't see the "stolen from Marmot" thing at the top.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 pm because I just copied and pasted from marmot and he had all of it. i even made the unimportant days tinier
Was any of the analysis of the data Marmot's, or was all that yours?
Clever, I hope the double-entendre was intentional.
KZA couldn't block fatal actions.
I should specifically say that Esooa was pinged by TSP's treatment of Chop D1.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:18 am this is boggling my mind. this man is a wolf. remove him from the game.
Oh, just to support my earlier thing about Chop and Jack being TSP suspects, the first post here is about Chop. The second post was posted the same minute as the first post (there was a post in the middle, that just @'ed Sloon... I can see why TSP has so many posts, half of them have no content, or are large strings of posts that should just be one post)
Vig seems a little too powerful a role for a faction that only needs one extra person dead tbqh.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 pm @Urist From your perspective, you know that the Redding faction has only one person in it... What do you think is more likely, that JJJ gives the 1-person Redding faction one of the most powerful Redding roles (1-shot vig plus 2 double votes), or a Redding role that can only support other factions (2 shot inventor)?
I was thinking limited role cop.Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:48 pmVig seems a little too powerful a role for a faction that only needs one extra person dead tbqh.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 pm @Urist From your perspective, you know that the Redding faction has only one person in it... What do you think is more likely, that JJJ gives the 1-person Redding faction one of the most powerful Redding roles (1-shot vig plus 2 double votes), or a Redding role that can only support other factions (2 shot inventor)?
Also I'm trying to figure out how Nanook countered DOOM, I'm not sure a track invention really lines up with that?
Is that what you sent him?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:49 pmI was thinking limited role cop.Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:48 pmVig seems a little too powerful a role for a faction that only needs one extra person dead tbqh.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 pm @Urist From your perspective, you know that the Redding faction has only one person in it... What do you think is more likely, that JJJ gives the 1-person Redding faction one of the most powerful Redding roles (1-shot vig plus 2 double votes), or a Redding role that can only support other factions (2 shot inventor)?
Also I'm trying to figure out how Nanook countered DOOM, I'm not sure a track invention really lines up with that?
I don't get to chooseUrist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:50 pmIs that what you sent him?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:49 pmI was thinking limited role cop.Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:48 pmVig seems a little too powerful a role for a faction that only needs one extra person dead tbqh.Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 pm @Urist From your perspective, you know that the Redding faction has only one person in it... What do you think is more likely, that JJJ gives the 1-person Redding faction one of the most powerful Redding roles (1-shot vig plus 2 double votes), or a Redding role that can only support other factions (2 shot inventor)?
Also I'm trying to figure out how Nanook countered DOOM, I'm not sure a track invention really lines up with that?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am You're a 2-shot inventor. Your mind is the odds on favorite to acquire the coveted Excavator Chip, which will give you a decided technological edge. Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player will be given a 1-shot ability randomized from the following set: [role block, track, doctor, non-fatal jailkeep, limited role cop].
Nah, it was more like a quick "I should do my due diligence" ... "ehh..." ... "Could it even be Urist in a sensible world?" ... "nah". Since it was very clear from yesterday that both of you had me as your "prime suspects", this holds no weight. As I said, it would take some mental gymnastics to make sense of the kill-less night if Urist is not scum.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:46 pm sean did a quick "not sure if I'm voting for tsp or urist, oh, looks like tsp is probably voting for me, my mind's made up" there