RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[Marmot]

Moreover, the fact that I opened this day in full-on tinfoil mode against Golden should be a good indicator. I don't have all the answers. I am trying the best I can to work out all of the details of this game using the methods I know and the limited information available to me. I have had to engage Golden and INH repeatedly over the course of multiple cycles to try to sort out their relationship, because that effort is crucial in process of elimination and in determining whether one of them is making a play.

I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.

Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.

No, I don't think this is a good indicator. I figured out what Golden was talking about yesterday. You did not. You still had reason to believe Golden or inh could be bad. I did not.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Ok Mr. WIFOM bucket. JaggedJimmyJay would not sow restraint if he was the SK huh? You say it is perhaps inconsistent reads? Well you also could control one of the nightkills.

I said I would show restraint. Controlling one of the night kills would not prevent me from being targeted by the other one. A serial killer is forced to be conscious of both avoiding lynches (which I have done a poor job of throughout the game apparently) and avoiding night kills.

I tried to CFD someone on Day 1 based upon a read that I couldn't know was accurate, meaning I was deliberately putting myself out there in a position to either be a hero (if the CFD took place and netted a scum flip) or a goat (if the lynch I was trying to avert did take place and netted a scum flip -- as is what happened with Scotty). That is the behavior of a townie doing what he feels is best under the circumstances, and either way it'd leave me threatened. If it had gone my way, I'd have wide open for a mafia kill. If it hadn't (and it didn't), I was wide open for a lynch -- and on Days 2 and 3 I nearly was lynched.

A serial killer is conscious of these risks and does take them lightly. I took them very lightly, because when I'm town and my survival is not critical to my team's victory condition -- I do whatever I feel I must.

This is possible the best mafia game I've ever played. I've helped lynch two of the members of mafia, and was the only person to vote for the third (even though I later townread him lol). I did it in under 300 posts. We are not lynching someone today based on their post count, so I don't see your point.

You've played a very strong game, I agree. You played a key role in eliminating the mafia team -- indeed your votes were more crucial than my votes. But that doesn't make you a townie. Nobody has to believe me at face value that my post count is meaningful -- I understand it's not something that will be easily absorbed by most. I do think some people have a keen understanding of what I am trying to convey though. Golden is the foremost example here. He knows and personally understands what goes in to a massive town effort, and how that is fundamentally different from a serial killer effort. The way I have played this game makes no sense for a serial killer.

The way you have played this game is more compatible.

[Marmot]

If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.

This is where you've had to reach. If I kill MM, I leave Sloonei alive with two civ buddies (who both suspect him). The likelihood of Sloonei being lynched in that scenario is quite high. The same cannot be said in this scenario. We're in a 50/50 slugfest now, and there's no reason I'd have to put myself in that position. It's a bad play, and the only motive for it that I can think of is WIFOM.

You're the WIFOM bucket, not me.

I stand by what I've said here. I am a somewhat easy lynch. Golden voted for me based on PoE alone, and stated he should consider looking into you. He voted for me before doing any research.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Moreover, the fact that I opened this day in full-on tinfoil mode against Golden should be a good indicator. I don't have all the answers. I am trying the best I can to work out all of the details of this game using the methods I know and the limited information available to me. I have had to engage Golden and INH repeatedly over the course of multiple cycles to try to sort out their relationship, because that effort is crucial in process of elimination and in determining whether one of them is making a play.

I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.

Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.

No, I don't think this is a good indicator. I figured out what Golden was talking about yesterday. You did not. You still had reason to believe Golden or inh could be bad. I did not.

You're not the person I am interested in convincing here. You're the serial killer.

INH and Golden can judge this for themselves. It should be quite clear in the posts I have made about Golden and INH that I have had a serious interest in figuring out how to read the relationship between them. I asked them numerous questions, I proposed multiple theories, and I assessed everything they said in response. That's the effort which is necessary for a townie to undertake to understand other people's play in a Mafia game.

You did not undertake the same effort. As the serial killer, you had a key advantage over me when it comes to figuring out what Golden and INH were about. You couldn't suspect them, at least not genuinely, because you knew yourself to be the SK. You had no real reason to investigate what they were doing in the thread, and it shows.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.

This is where you've had to reach. If I kill MM, I leave Sloonei alive with two civ buddies (who both suspect him). The likelihood of Sloonei being lynched in that scenario is quite high. The same cannot be said in this scenario. We're in a 50/50 slugfest now, and there's no reason I'd have to put myself in that position. It's a bad play, and the only motive for it that I can think of is WIFOM.

You're the WIFOM bucket, not me.

I stand by what I've said here. I am a somewhat easy lynch. Golden voted for me based on PoE alone, and stated he should consider looking into you. He voted for me before doing any research.

You're not as easy a lynch as Sloonei would have been. Nobody here is. All four of us voiced suspicion of Sloonei including two people who are joined at the hip. He was the easiest lynch on the table and it wasn't close.

If I am the serial killer, I don't discard that advantage. I don't know why anyone would, but Sloonei is dead.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A serial killer is conscious of these risks and doesn't take them lightly. I took them very lightly, because when I'm town and my survival is not critical to my team's victory condition -- I do whatever I feel I must.

Correction.

[Marmot]

Ok Mr. WIFOM bucket. JaggedJimmyJay would not sow restraint if he was the SK huh? You say it is perhaps inconsistent reads? Well you also could control one of the nightkills.

I said I would show restraint. Controlling one of the night kills would not prevent me from being targeted by the other one. A serial killer is forced to be conscious of both avoiding lynches (which I have done a poor job of throughout the game apparently) and avoiding night kills.

I tried to CFD someone on Day 1 based upon a read that I couldn't know was accurate, meaning I was deliberately putting myself out there in a position to either be a hero (if the CFD took place and netted a scum flip) or a goat (if the lynch I was trying to avert did take place and netted a scum flip -- as is what happened with Scotty). That is the behavior of a townie doing what he feels is best under the circumstances, and either way it'd leave me threatened. If it had gone my way, I'd have wide open for a mafia kill. If it hadn't (and it didn't), I was wide open for a lynch -- and on Days 2 and 3 I nearly was lynched.

A serial killer is conscious of these risks and does take them lightly. I took them very lightly, because when I'm town and my survival is not critical to my team's victory condition -- I do whatever I feel I must.

You're JaggedJimmyJay. People will nightkill you based on your legacy from other games as opposed to your play in this game. The fact that you haven't been nightkilled is noteworthy.

This is possible the best mafia game I've ever played. I've helped lynch two of the members of mafia, and was the only person to vote for the third (even though I later townread him lol). I did it in under 300 posts. We are not lynching someone today based on their post count, so I don't see your point.

You've played a very strong game, I agree. You played a key role in eliminating the mafia team -- indeed your votes were more crucial than my votes. But that doesn't make you a townie. Nobody has to believe me at face value that my post count is meaningful -- I understand it's not something that will be easily absorbed by most. I do think some people have a keen understanding of what I am trying to convey though. Golden is the foremost example here. He knows and personally understands what goes in to a massive town effort, and how that is fundamentally different from a serial killer effort. The way I have played this game makes no sense for a serial killer.

The way you have played this game is more compatible.

The way I play in general is more compatible. You are supatown Jay. I am free-spirited oft fuck-off Marmot. That's just how it is, and it doesn't stop you from being the SK.

That's similar to what I was saying several days ago about inh.

[Golden]

Apologies, haven't had time to do much but pop in briefly today, will post thoughts tomorrow.

I thought MM came out of yesterday's lynch looking worst even with Sloonei alive, and MM being bad is what makes most sense to me. But with what time I have tomorrow I want to really consider Jay objectively because I've spent so much game in defense of him that I recognise its possible he could have me suckered.

[Marmot]

Apologies, haven't had time to do much but pop in briefly today, will post thoughts tomorrow.

I thought MM came out of yesterday's lynch looking worst even with Sloonei alive, and MM being bad is what makes most sense to me. But with what time I have tomorrow I want to really consider Jay objectively because I've spent so much game in defense of him that I recognise its possible he could have me suckered.

I look forward to it. This has turned into a dichotomy, and you've put more effort into defending inh than determining your final vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You're JaggedJimmyJay. People will nightkill you based on your legacy from other games as opposed to your play in this game. The fact that you haven't been nightkilled is noteworthy.

I'm honestly not sure I have ever been "legacy killed" before. Maybe RotTK (I don't want to talk about live games), but I don't know. Frankly it isn't even that common for me to die early in games for reasons I have never been clear on. In this game it should be quite obvious why the Mafia never killed me -- Epignosis was trying to use me as his personal punching bag. It was a coin flip shy of working too. I can't tell you why you haven't killed me. Perhaps I am perceived as a tinfoil magnet.

The way I play in general is more compatible. You are supatown Jay. I am free-spirited oft fuck-off Marmot. That's just how it is, and it doesn't stop you from being the SK.

That's similar to what I was saying several days ago about inh.

The most posts I have ever had in an anti-town role is 300. The most posts I have ever had in a town role is 1450.

When I'm town, I'm not "Supatown Jay". I'm Ultra Megazord Earth Shaker Town Jay. I have yet to encounter another player anywhere who gives as effort to the town game as I do. That's to say I'm the best townie (I am quite sure I'm not), but I may be the hardest working.

I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.

This time I'm as Ultra Megazord Town Jay as ever before. In a 15 player game, I have asserted total control over this thread and welcomed bullets from both sides. Because I'm town and that's my style.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's NOT to say I'm the best townie (I am quite sure I'm not), but I may be the hardest working.

My typos and word omissions always make me look like such an asshole.

[Marmot]

King of Fuck Mountain indeed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Apologies, haven't had time to do much but pop in briefly today, will post thoughts tomorrow.

I thought MM came out of yesterday's lynch looking worst even with Sloonei alive, and MM being bad is what makes most sense to me. But with what time I have tomorrow I want to really consider Jay objectively because I've spent so much game in defense of him that I recognise its possible he could have me suckered.

Go ahead and have a look. If there's one aspect of my play in this game that I think is most telling, it's one Marmot actually just brought up against me.

My behavior at the end of Day 1 put me in a lose-lose scenario if I am the serial killer. Please consider that as you consider me.

[Marmot]

You're JaggedJimmyJay. People will nightkill you based on your legacy from other games as opposed to your play in this game. The fact that you haven't been nightkilled is noteworthy.

I'm honestly not sure I have ever been "legacy killed" before. Maybe RotTK (I don't want to talk about live games), but I don't know. Frankly it isn't even that common for me to die early in games for reasons I have never been clear on. In this game it should be quite obvious why the Mafia never killed me -- Epignosis was trying to use me as his personal punching bag. It was a coin flip shy of working too. I can't tell you why you haven't killed me. Perhaps I am perceived as a tinfoil magnet.

The way I play in general is more compatible. You are supatown Jay. I am free-spirited oft fuck-off Marmot. That's just how it is, and it doesn't stop you from being the SK.

That's similar to what I was saying several days ago about inh.

The most posts I have ever had in an anti-town role is 300. The most posts I have ever had in a town role is 1450.

When I'm town, I'm not "Supatown Jay". I'm Ultra Megazord Earth Shaker Town Jay. I have yet to encounter another player anywhere who gives as effort to the town game as I do. That's to say I'm the best townie (I am quite sure I'm not), but I may be the hardest working.

I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.

This time I'm as Ultra Megazord Town Jay as ever before. In a 15 player game, I have asserted total control over this thread and welcomed bullets from both sides. Because I'm town and that's my style.

I'm in the top 3 posters in every game I survive a decent length of time in, regardless of alignment. No patterns to recognize there.

But I stand by what I said before. I would not kill Epignosis.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But I stand by what I said before. I would not kill Epignosis.

I would not kill Sloonei.

Someone's lying.

I am willing to believe that you don't like to kill Epignosis. One of the first things I noticed on this site over the first few months was how often Epignosis got night killed early in games. I even griped about it myself. I believe that in most cases, you'd prefer to kill someone else. This game is a unique beast though, and apparently you felt that you had to break your trend. Perhaps you thought Epignosis might be Trump. Perhaps you felt the kill wouldn't be traced to you as much as someone else. I don't really know.

But you killed him.

[Marmot]

You're the guy who couldn't figure things out from the night posts. Why do you think that the SK needs Donald Trump dead to win?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You're the guy who couldn't figure things out from the night posts. Why do you think that the SK needs Donald Trump dead to win?

I don't "think" that. I acknowledge that the theory is valid and it suits the narratives G-Man has provided. You're right that I couldn't figure it out. I certainly tried. Maybe Sloonei did better than I did.

[Marmot]

I need bed, but I'll be back tomorrow.

[Golden]

Gah! I get to work and my day is full of meetings again. It sucks that life is so busy at the end of this game.

I haven't read the recent discussions yet nor have I looked back on Jay and MM across the game generally, both of which I want to do before the end of tonight. I'll do my best. I can only do what I can do

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The bad thing about a JJJ vs. Marmot LyLo brawl on late summer Sunday is that we're both going to be watching handegg. :P

I'll be sporadically around though.

[Marmot]

I don't know what else to say tbh, especially if inh and Golden aren't around to react.

[Ricochet]

[Golden]

I don't know what else to say tbh, especially if inh and Golden aren't around to react.

Sorry. But I will read whatever it is. I'm expecting to have a window of time in 90 minutes.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll be around to field questions/concerns.

[Marmot]

Are you the psycho killer?

[Golden]

For each of you - why would the other kill sloonei?

[Marmot]

If the narrative is that the SK needs to kill Donald Trump, that is one possibility (and could fit whoever the SK is).

Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For each of you - why would the other kill sloonei?

I don't know. It strikes me as a bad choice. Perhaps Marmot thought he was Trump, perhaps he thought WIFOM was a better play than keeping the consensus suspect in the game. I can only speculate.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.

Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.

[Marmot]

Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.

Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.

I picked up on something that you didn't. I knew going into today that Golden and inh were not going to be lynched because they are both town. Thus, either one of them would have been an obvious kill choice for me. Not so for you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.

Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.

I picked up on something that you didn't. I knew going into today that Golden and inh were not going to be lynched because they are both town. Thus, either one of them would have been an obvious kill choice for me. Not so for you.

You can continue to pretend the Sloonei kill implicates me more than it does you, but no matter how you shake it it's nonsense. I am the one who was theorizing that Golden and INH might have civilian BTSC. If I am the serial killer, then I know their relationship is meaningful because I have no reason to doubt them. That's why you had no reason to doubt them.

The Sloonei kill makes no sense for any one in this lynch tally unless the Trump motive is considered, in which case it can apply to anyone. You're squeezing bad logic into the argument that you feel you must make against me -- that I killed Sloonei.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MM, tell me why I behaved the way I behaved at the end of Day 1 if I am the serial killer.

I seriously think that stretch says it all. I'm not the SK because my EOD1 makes absolutely no sense for a SK. I am confident that will be apparent to Golden and INH if they look at it objectively. If I am an LMS independent, then that means I put myself in a lose-lose scenario at the end of that day phase for no reason that could truly benefit me.

[Marmot]

Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.

Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.

I picked up on something that you didn't. I knew going into today that Golden and inh were not going to be lynched because they are both town. Thus, either one of them would have been an obvious kill choice for me. Not so for you.

You can continue to pretend the Sloonei kill implicates me more than it does you, but no matter how you shake it it's nonsense. I am the one who was theorizing that Golden and INH might have civilian BTSC. If I am the serial killer, then I know their relationship is meaningful because I have no reason to doubt them. That's why you had no reason to doubt them.

The Sloonei kill makes no sense for any one in this lynch tally unless the Trump motive is considered, in which case it can apply to anyone. You're squeezing bad logic into the argument that you feel you must make against me -- that I killed Sloonei.

You did theorize that they had civilian BTSC, but this post shows where you were at at the beginning of this day phase. I agree that the Sloonei kill makes sense for none of us, and most especially you and I. But Sloonei is dead, and unless Golden or inh is pulling a mighty fast one on us, it's come down to you or I. It is more logical to me that Golden and inh are confirmed town than it is that you didn't nightkill Sloonei.

This is what I said on Day 4, and is the reason as to why I had more confidence that Golden and inh were town last night than you did.

[Marmot]

MM, tell me why I behaved the way I behaved at the end of Day 1 if I am the serial killer.

I seriously think that stretch says it all. I'm not the SK because my EOD1 makes absolutely no sense for a SK. I am confident that will be apparent to Golden and INH if they look at it objectively. If I am an LMS independent, then that means I put myself in a lose-lose scenario at the end of that day phase for no reason that could truly benefit me.

That's a WIFOM argument. You have the choice between playing to your meta and playing a more passive style. Considering the players in this game, it doesn't surprise that you'd play to your meta.

[Marmot]

I hate this. I don't even read you as bad, but it can't be anyone else.

Another useful application of the PoE.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You did theorize that they had civilian BTSC, but this post shows where you were at at the beginning of this day phase. I agree that the Sloonei kill makes sense for none of us, and most especially you and I. But Sloonei is dead, and unless Golden or inh is pulling a mighty fast one on us, it's come down to you or I. It is more logical to me that Golden and inh are confirmed town than it is that you didn't nightkill Sloonei.

This is what I said on Day 4, and is the reason as to why I had more confidence that Golden and inh were town last night than you did.

Yes, I did suspect Golden to open this day phase. I made that quite clear. Since I don't have the advantage of information in my town flesh, I am forced to assess the details of this game on every level -- I theorized there was civilian BTSC, it seemed to me that INH discounted that theory, and that gave me a reason to suspect Golden. Once it became evident that INH's discounting of that theory was a survival tactic and not grounded in truth, I was able to understand their relationship and thus eliminate them from candidacy.

In a 3 vs. 1 LyLo phase coming off of a surprising Quin 2.0 town flip, a townie is going to experience paranoia. A townie is going to want to assess everyone alive before making a final decision. That's just how the town mind works. You can see Golden doing the same thing now for the people not named INH. He has leaned toward me being a townie most of the game, but he is exploring the alternative in this game-deciding phase because he must. I did the same with him, and before given a reason to eliminate him I genuinely thought there was a concerning case. I didn't hound Golden with a vote and scream for his head; I presented my case and then listened to his counterarguments.

I don't have the answers. I have to go through all of the work to get as close to the answers as I can. Because I'm town.

You have the advantage of skipping most of those steps because you're the only non-townie still living in this game. The post you made about leetic was only a reiteration of what I had already theorized. That you simply presented it as a "could be" and then moved on without even thinking about Golden or INH as serious suspects is what reveals you as the person with too much information (your own role). I presented the theory, explored it repeatedly, drew conclusions to the best of my ability based on the posts in front of me, and proceeded. You already knew the answer.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MM, tell me why I behaved the way I behaved at the end of Day 1 if I am the serial killer.

I seriously think that stretch says it all. I'm not the SK because my EOD1 makes absolutely no sense for a SK. I am confident that will be apparent to Golden and INH if they look at it objectively. If I am an LMS independent, then that means I put myself in a lose-lose scenario at the end of that day phase for no reason that could truly benefit me.

That's a WIFOM argument. You have the choice between playing to your meta and playing a more passive style. Considering the players in this game, it doesn't surprise that you'd play to your meta.

It's not WIFOM. This is the crap Epignosis was trying to argue against me too. Certain behavior in Mafia games simply does not suit certain alignments. That's the primary means by which townies can identify each other. My behavior at EOD1 wasn't about "fulfilling my meta". That's silly. I don't care about "fulfilling my meta" if the price of doing that is opening myself wide to either a night kill or a lynch. That's not sensible for a serial killer who wants to win the game, and I play Mafia to win.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hate this. I don't even read you as bad, but it can't be anyone else.

Another useful application of the PoE.

I know you don't read me as bad. You know I'm not.

I didn't read you as bad for most of the game, which is a testament to the great performance you've had. But I read you as bad now. You're the only option, and you realize that your only avenue to winning this game right now is to get me lynched. It shows.

[Marmot]

MM, tell me why I behaved the way I behaved at the end of Day 1 if I am the serial killer.

I seriously think that stretch says it all. I'm not the SK because my EOD1 makes absolutely no sense for a SK. I am confident that will be apparent to Golden and INH if they look at it objectively. If I am an LMS independent, then that means I put myself in a lose-lose scenario at the end of that day phase for no reason that could truly benefit me.

That's a WIFOM argument. You have the choice between playing to your meta and playing a more passive style. Considering the players in this game, it doesn't surprise that you'd play to your meta.

It's not WIFOM. This is the crap Epignosis was trying to argue against me too. Certain behavior in Mafia games simply does not suit certain alignments. That's the primary means by which townies can identify each other. My behavior at EOD1 wasn't about "fulfilling my meta". That's silly. I don't care about "fulfilling my meta" if the price of doing that is opening myself wide to either a night kill or a lynch. That's not sensible for a serial killer who wants to win the game, and I play Mafia to win.

And when have I ever given a fuck about playing to my role? You're asking the wrong player.

Playing to your meta might make you more likely to be nightkilled, but those chances are reduced by half if you are the SK anyway. Playing off your meta increases your chances of being lynched. Pick your poison.

Linki: I was the one who acknowledged that. You were the one looking at Golden.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And when have I ever given a fuck about playing to my role? You're asking the wrong player.

I don't know why these sentences exist.

Playing to your meta might make you more likely to be nightkilled, but those chances are reduced by half if you are the SK anyway. Playing off your meta increases your chances of being lynched. Pick your poison.

Yellow: This is absolute nonsense. You're telling me that as a serial killer I don't have to worry about being night killed because one of them belongs to me. It's ridiculous. A serial killer with an LMS or similar condition must be concerned with night kills by default. It's irrelevant that the SK himself would control one of them, because he wouldn't control the other one. A serial killer who is killed by the mafia team cannot win the game, and thus he is required to remain conscious of that problem and avoid that result.

Orange: This is nonsense too, for a key reason you're ignoring: my meta is not solely defined by frantically pursuing counterwagons at EOD. It's something I have done before, but it's not something I would need to feel is a necessary component of "looking the part". If I want to look like JaggedJimmyJay, I can do that perfectly easily without endangering myself with a dramatic EOD counterwagon. Meta is a moot argument here. The argument that matters is that my engagement in that CFD counterwagon placed the spotlight squarely on me.

1. If it went my way and my counterwagon was lynched and flipped scum, I am ripe for a night kill.

2. If it didn't go my way and counterwagon was lynched and flipped town OR the original wagon was lynched and flipped scum (which is what happened), I am ripe for a lynch.

On Days 2 and 3, I was very nearly lynched. That's nonsense for a serial killer. It's recklessness that is unsuitable to that role and to say I did it anyway because "meta" is crap. It's exactly the same kind of logic Epignosis used in his arguments with Golden and I about what I would do as a mafioso. Logic cannot be ignored, but he ignored it anyway because it didn't fit his narrative. He pretended I am capable of doing anything under any circumstances regardless of whether it makes sense, and you're doing it too.

Linki: I was the one who acknowledged that. You were the one looking at Golden.

No. I'd presented the theory that one-way information existed, and you "agreed".

[Marmot]

Linki: I was the one who acknowledged that. You were the one looking at Golden.

Anyway, to expound on this, Jay did not voice a suspicion of me until after I pointed a finger at him.

Spoiler: show

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

I agree that for certain stretches of this game, his play could be described as more about survival than solving. That was a part of my own rationale when I was calling him a serial killer. I'm just trying to understand why that = town.

You are looking at what I'm trying to express all wrong. I didn't mean to say he was unhelpful on day one. I do think, however, you ascribe intentions to his posts in this game without considering the 'survivalist', explanation, in the past, and you'd do well to look at his posts again through the lens of survival.

I don't know how to help any more than I can. Maybe you'll have a lightbulb moment, maybe you won't, but I don't think I can do anything more to help you. It's best we move on.

Jay, why is MM not the serial killer?
MM, why is Jay not the serial killer?

Jay has to be the SK. Unless inh has been bamboozled by you, there's no other way about it.

Jay immediately responded asking if I was worried about inh or Golden, to which I responded no. But before Jay got a response from me, he moved to the conclusion that I am the SK.

Spoiler: show

So you aren't concerned at all with either Golden or INH, MM?

Okay, I think I was right about the civilian BTSC then. It's Marmot.

I may have figured something out that Jay didn't, but that is a product of reading the thread, nothing to do with being town or SK (bad argument there Jay).

[Marmot]

And when have I ever given a fuck about playing to my role? You're asking the wrong player.

I don't know why these sentences exist.

Playing to your meta might make you more likely to be nightkilled, but those chances are reduced by half if you are the SK anyway. Playing off your meta increases your chances of being lynched. Pick your poison.

Yellow: This is absolute nonsense. You're telling me that as a serial killer I don't have to worry about being night killed because one of them belongs to me. It's ridiculous. A serial killer with an LMS or similar condition must be concerned with night kills by default. It's irrelevant that the SK himself would control one of them, because he wouldn't control the other one. A serial killer who is killed by the mafia team cannot win the game, and thus he is required to remain conscious of that problem and avoid that result.

I said that your chances are reduced by half, not that you don't have to be concerned with them.

Orange: This is nonsense too, for a key reason you're ignoring: my meta is not solely defined by frantically pursuing counterwagons at EOD. It's something I have done before, but it's not something I would need to feel is a necessary component of "looking the part". If I want to look like JaggedJimmyJay, I can do that perfectly easily without endangering myself with a dramatic EOD counterwagon. Meta is a moot argument here. The argument that matters is that my engagement in that CFD counterwagon placed the spotlight squarely on me.

1. If it went my way and my counterwagon was lynched and flipped scum, I am ripe for a night kill.

2. If it didn't go my way and counterwagon was lynched and flipped town OR the original wagon was lynched and flipped scum (which is what happened), I am ripe for a lynch.

Soooo, why haven't you been lynched or nightkilled yet?

On Days 2 and 3, I was very nearly lynched. That's nonsense for a serial killer. It's recklessness that is unsuitable to that role and to say I did it anyway because "meta" is crap. It's exactly the same kind of logic Epignosis used in his arguments with Golden and I about what I would do as a mafioso. Logic cannot be ignored, but he ignored it anyway because it didn't fit his narrative. He pretended I am capable of doing anything under any circumstances regardless of whether it makes sense, and you're doing it too.

That's how I play the survival/indy win con, and it works for me.

Linki: I was the one who acknowledged that. You were the one looking at Golden.

No. I'd presented the theory that one-way information existed, and you "agreed".

Could you point that out to me?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Anyway, to expound on this, Jay did not voice a suspicion of me until after I pointed a finger at him.

Irrelevant. My concern was with INH and Golden. I pointed a finger at you as soon as they were eliminated from consideration.

Jay immediately responded asking if I was worried about inh or Golden, to which I responded no. But before Jay got a response from me, he moved to the conclusion that I am the SK.

Again, your response was irrelevant. INH made his large post expanding on some of his behavior, which clued me in to his mindset and his play -- and it rendered my suspicion of Golden no longer viable. That made you the only other option. Your response to that question has no bearing on that. You can answer it however you want, you're still the last name left.

I may have figured something out that Jay didn't, but that is a product of reading the thread, nothing to do with being town or SK (bad argument there Jay).

It isn't a bad argument. I figured it out as quickly as my uninformed brain allowed me to figure it out. I didn't have the advantage you had.

[Marmot]

What advantage did I have? If I am the SK, how do I have any advantage on thread-based evidence that you don't?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I said that your chances are reduced by half, not that you don't have to be concerned with them.

You told me that I would have been unbothered by night kills playing within the "meta" you painted for me because one of them would have belonged to me. It's what you said.

Soooo, why haven't you been lynched or nightkilled yet?

Horrendous.

I wasn't lynched on Day 2 because Golden 1.0 defended the hell out of me and because there was significant suspicion of Quin 1.0 too. I wasn't lynched on Day 3 because of a coin flip.

I have no idea why I haven't been killed. Obviously Epignosis and the mafia wouldn't have killed me since I was their whipping boy. You probably didn't kill me because you don't think I'm Trump. You tell me.

That's how I play the survival/indy win con, and it works for me.

True or not, it's irrelevant. I am not you. I play to win. The strategy you're sticking on me is playing to lose. It's stupid.

Could you point that out to me?[/quote]

Sure.

This post came 5 minutes before the post you made about leetic:

Reminder of my initial theory that INH and leetic/Golden 2.0 had civilian BTSC.

I no longer believe this, but it doesn't have to be entirely wrong. There could still be a n0 peek, or a role check, or whatever other information to inspire at least one direction of this interaction.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What advantage did I have? If I am the SK, how do I have any advantage on thread-based evidence that you don't?

You don't need thread-based evidence that I don't have. You only need the same evidence that I have at my disposal. Here's how it works:

1.) Both the serial killer and the townie observe evidence in the thread that Golden and INH might be in some sort of mutually or singularly informed civilian relationship.

2.) The townie is forced to judge whether that evidence should be taken at face value or investigated for ulterior motives, because one can never be sure if there's an agenda behind those sorts of public clues.

3.) The serial killer is inherently immune to the uncertainty that the townie is experiencing in #2. He knows immediately that both Golden and INH are townies, and thus he is able to judge their relationship purely as it is. The paranoia never exists.

[Marmot]

What advantage did I have? If I am the SK, how do I have any advantage on thread-based evidence that you don't?

You don't need thread-based evidence that I don't have. You only need the same evidence that I have at my disposal. Here's how it works:

1.) Both the serial killer and the townie observe evidence in the thread that Golden and INH might be in some sort of mutually or singularly informed civilian relationship.

2.) The townie is forced to judge whether that evidence should be taken at face value or investigated for ulterior motives, because one can never be sure if there's an agenda behind those sorts of public clues.

3.) The serial killer is inherently immune to the uncertainty that the townie is experiencing in #2. He knows immediately that both Golden and INH are townies, and thus he is able to judge their relationship purely as it is. The paranoia never exists.

A townie can come to that conclusion as well, and here's how.

3 mafia are dead. There is (as of Day 4) only 1 baddie of any kind left or this game is rigged. insertnamehere could be lying, but Golden had given me reasonable belief that he was not. Golden could be lying, but then inh would have made two senseless posts in the thread defending a player that he never talked about again for no reason. And his behavior when Golden came back speaks to it being true.

Golden and inh cannot both be lying, that would be preposterous. That would mean they are both bad (in which case the game should be over?), one is bad and one made a bad judgment call, or they both mad bad choices.. It is more likely in my eyes that you are the SK and killed Sloonei than it is that one of them did.

[Golden]

Lots more words! I'll catch up on them soon.

I'm here, and I was really bad in that last meeting because I was so zoned out and I spent it thinking about this:

Boomslang, Ricochet, Epignosis, Sloonei. For who did these choices make the most sense.

Now, I definitely need to read back to make more sense of where MM has been in the grand scheme of things this game. And I don't really recall any reads that Boomslang put out or even Rico, really. So all I've really got so far is the pros and cons of the kills from Jay's perspective (whose game I've been relatively focussed on). So here goes.

Boomslang

Against Jay - Taking out the PoE quickly and efficiently would theoretically minimise the number of kills that the mafia got. If hunting specifically for Trump, day one is a shot in the dark anyway.
For Jay - Lynching the PoE, in theory, means more time before people go SK hunting.

Ricochet

Against Jay - Ricochet seems an obvious candidate for being Trump no matter what other factors are in play. In this light, the kill might make sense for Jay (especially if killing Trump is the win con and not survival).
For Jay - This kill could have cost Jay his life in the game. Incredibly risky, and the kill or Rico plus me 1.0 in this phase left Jay very vulnerable. The Rico kill seems like the biggest point in Jay's favour.

Epignosis

Against Jay - Epi spent most of the game seeing Jay as bad. Although Jay talked about the fact Epi had started to see him as good, I don't think Jay would rely on Epi to be necessarily be truthful about that or have enough of a belief in that to not vote for him in the event that the other wagon wasn't someone he believed was bad. Epi was relatively consistently townread, so could have seemed like a good candidate for Trump.
For Jay - Jay had begun to express doubts about Epi being good, so perhaps not Jay's first choice for who Trump would be at that time.

Sloonei

Against Jay - Jay seems more likely to believe that inh or I were lynchable today than MM did. Jay also seemed to town read sloonei. Sloonei can also read Jay relatively well. In addition, I doubt Jay would have been in a hurry to NK me in the circumstances.
For Jay - Don't really have one on the sloonei kill.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A townie can come to that conclusion as well, and here's how.

3 mafia are dead. There is (as of Day 4) only 1 baddie of any kind left or this game is rigged. insertnamehere could be lying, but Golden had given me reasonable belief that he was not. Golden could be lying, but then inh would have made two senseless posts in the thread defending a player that he never talked about again for no reason. And his behavior when Golden came back speaks to it being true.

That's evidence of a relationship. It isn't conclusive enough to make it obvious. To know the answer based on that implies one of these realities exists:

1. The person who knows is the serial killer.

2. The person who knows is so keenly familiar with the way INH behaves to the point that he could judge conclusively without a doubt what he is doing and why without the need for exploring more closely.

#2 is not a thing. A townie cannot come to that conclusion. A townie can consider the notion, but he cannot know -- not when INH abjectly rejected the assertion of BTSC.

Golden and inh cannot both be lying, that would be preposterous. That would mean they are both bad (in which case the game should be over?), one is bad and one made a bad judgment call, or they both mad bad choices.. It is more likely in my eyes that you are the SK and killed Sloonei than it is that one of them did.

I agree they're not both bad. I already talked about that. A townie wonders about one or the other. My concern was with Golden, and I expressed that concern in clear terms. It was resolved when INH offered his clarification, and that's all a townie can do. You cannot deny that the SK advantage exists in this context, it's ludicrous.

Yellow: I don't know why you're bringing up Sloonei again.

[Golden]

As far as Marmot goes - without a full analysis, I think the rico kill makes sense, I think the sloonei kill doesn't make a lot of sense (one of the bigger points in marmot's favour). The epi and boomslang kills seem meh, perfectly fine either way. Need to look back.

My overall analysis on Jay is... that my biggest hang up, which is the rico/golden kill day, makes a whole lot more sense if all the sk needs to do is kill Trump, which could be the case. It might seem worth the risk, given how strongly Rico was roleplaying. That's a lot of assumptions, but it is at least an explanation that has some logic.