Re: Hatch thread
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:42 pm
Ask me again in an hour. I want to see how the rest of the conversation plays out.MovingPictures07 wrote:Quin, will you lynch Elohcin with me?
Ask me again in an hour. I want to see how the rest of the conversation plays out.MovingPictures07 wrote:Quin, will you lynch Elohcin with me?
That's roughly how I'm feeling about it.Quin wrote:I had the same thought, but I didn't make anything of it. As for his response, it just sounds like he's trying to pass it off as nothing. I feel neutral about it, leaning bad.MovingPictures07 wrote:G-Man, what's the point of this question? How does it assist in your determination of others' alignments?G-Man wrote:Could you all humor me for a minute? I'm pretty convinced that one of us is going to die since there are more denizens of the Hatch tonight. Of the seven of us, who do you think is most likely to be killed?
In the off chance I am wrong, who do you think will be killed at the beach?
I don't think I ever did this. I rarely ever keep my promises, but I actually intended to this timeMovingPictures07 wrote:That's about what I've earned with my play so far, so I can understand that placement.Quin wrote:G-Man
Eloh
DFaraday
MovingPictures07
insertnamehere
I'll find time today to elaborate on these individually.
Fair enough.Quin wrote:Ask me again in an hour. I want to see how the rest of the conversation plays out.MovingPictures07 wrote:Quin, will you lynch Elohcin with me?
Could you summarize them in quick little blurbs?Quin wrote:I don't think I ever did this. I rarely ever keep my promises, but I actually intended to this timeMovingPictures07 wrote:That's about what I've earned with my play so far, so I can understand that placement.Quin wrote:G-Man
Eloh
DFaraday
MovingPictures07
insertnamehere
I'll find time today to elaborate on these individually.
I blame the internet.
Come on, now. You had five posts in the first 46 hours of Day 1 and only one of them was game-relevant. You generated lots of content in the lead-up to the deadline and afterward, but by my definition, you were AWOL for most of Day 1. I have to factor that into how I read the content you did provide after you got involved. That's the context of your participation. Doesn't mean it's leading me in the right direction but I have to analyze what you post and when you post it.MovingPictures07 wrote:I wouldn't say I'm a non-participant though; I've had content to analyze, don't you think?G-Man wrote:Can't say it's inherently suspicious because, as I said, I understand real life and losing focus due to other games (I mean, that was the whole reason I started posting in pictures in Economics) but when that's one of the few things to analyze you over, it weighs on my mind more. Are you suggesting that if the tables were reversed, and I had been all but a non-participant, only to blast in before the deadline and cause a CFD and then duck out until a few hours before the next deadline that you wouldn't analyze the hell out of it?MovingPictures07 wrote:So you think the timing of my activity is inherently suspicious?Spoiler: show
The problem I have with it is that it's crazy bold for a baddie to do that. But then I keep telling myself that small games like these are prime opportunities for baddies to something crazy bold. It's got me going in circles, really. I don't like it but it doesn't seem like rationale baddie behavior but it's a short game.... See?
Furthermore, what's the mafia motivation for me to specifically time my entrances to be near EoD? What's the benefit? Wouldn't it be better for me to exert more influence over the thread?
I think townies are generally more involved with CFDs than mafia members (generalizing of course) because mafia members don't know how to handle CFDs and don't want to bring unwanted attention to themselves. In Turf Wars, the townies successfully caught a mafia member with a CFD on Day 2, but proceeded to lose the game after spending lynch after lynch analyzing everyone's behavior surrounding the CFD and incorrectly making assumptions that didn't exist. All of the mafia team avoided talking about the CFD as much as possible and stayed in the background as town picked itself apart. I find that more common than mafia members actively taking risks to start CFDs.
I can. Give me 5.MovingPictures07 wrote:Could you summarize them in quick little blurbs?Quin wrote:I don't think I ever did this. I rarely ever keep my promises, but I actually intended to this timeMovingPictures07 wrote:That's about what I've earned with my play so far, so I can understand that placement.Quin wrote:G-Man
Eloh
DFaraday
MovingPictures07
insertnamehere
I'll find time today to elaborate on these individually.
I blame the internet.
I'm not going to sit here and say I've been anything remotely helpful this game, don't get me wrong. I just find it notable that your assessment of me appears to be largely or almost entirely based on my lack of activity rather than the content that I have been able to generate.G-Man wrote:Come on, now. You had five posts in the first 46 hours of Day 1 and only one of them was game-relevant. You generated lots of content in the lead-up to the deadline and afterward, but by my definition, you were AWOL for most of Day 1. I have to factor that into how I read the content you did provide after you got involved. That's the context of your participation. Doesn't mean it's leading me in the right direction but I have to analyze what you post and when you post it.MovingPictures07 wrote:I wouldn't say I'm a non-participant though; I've had content to analyze, don't you think?G-Man wrote:Can't say it's inherently suspicious because, as I said, I understand real life and losing focus due to other games (I mean, that was the whole reason I started posting in pictures in Economics) but when that's one of the few things to analyze you over, it weighs on my mind more. Are you suggesting that if the tables were reversed, and I had been all but a non-participant, only to blast in before the deadline and cause a CFD and then duck out until a few hours before the next deadline that you wouldn't analyze the hell out of it?MovingPictures07 wrote:So you think the timing of my activity is inherently suspicious?Spoiler: show
The problem I have with it is that it's crazy bold for a baddie to do that. But then I keep telling myself that small games like these are prime opportunities for baddies to something crazy bold. It's got me going in circles, really. I don't like it but it doesn't seem like rationale baddie behavior but it's a short game.... See?
Furthermore, what's the mafia motivation for me to specifically time my entrances to be near EoD? What's the benefit? Wouldn't it be better for me to exert more influence over the thread?
I think townies are generally more involved with CFDs than mafia members (generalizing of course) because mafia members don't know how to handle CFDs and don't want to bring unwanted attention to themselves. In Turf Wars, the townies successfully caught a mafia member with a CFD on Day 2, but proceeded to lose the game after spending lynch after lynch analyzing everyone's behavior surrounding the CFD and incorrectly making assumptions that didn't exist. All of the mafia team avoided talking about the CFD as much as possible and stayed in the background as town picked itself apart. I find that more common than mafia members actively taking risks to start CFDs.
I'm not saying you're timing your entrances. I always find it odd when people suddenly get really active as the deadline approached. Granted, I'm weird in that I can read along and post a little at a time throughout the work day, but it bugs me when it's like a ghost town and then a flurry of activity at the most crucial time. The benefit to coming in and poking holes in some theories, prodding others, and casting shade in new directions (or reinforcing shade in existing directions) is that you subtly help teammates evade suspicion or the lynch. Especially if one of your teammates is getting a share of the spotlight.
I like to think I know you a little bit. And I think if you were mafia, you would do what you could to make this game more a priority. I said this before, btw. Your welcome for take the time to say it againMovingPictures07 wrote:What specifically have I done or said to have you reading me as town?Elohcin wrote:I hit play and danced a jig, G. Thanks for the music.
Why would you say this. Do you WANT to be killed? Or are you mafia?Quin wrote:Me, because I have a power role.
I was thinking MP as well. I think he is civ and I can imagine the baddies picking to off him early.
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woah woah woah.....this is nuts. So we are stuck in the hatch for day 2? And Rico is dead. So one of the Hatchlings are bad for sure.
How often do you find yourself in a game with Scotty, DF? Given how often he plays games, I imagine most people will have seen him both as a civ and as a baddie, so they'd be aware of his meta. I'm not sure I'd call inactivity a Scotty-scum-tell. Is his lack of presence a scum-tell for you?DFaraday wrote:Scotty is as low down as he is for trying to justify his Soneji vote as saving himself, and for otherwise having uncharacteristically very little presence in the game.
Could be strategic. Could be. I'm not saying you are being strategic with when and what you post but I have to keep the possibility that you could be alive in my mind. It's unlike you to post the way you have so far. It could be a bad game for you. I can't recall seeing you play a bad game but we also haven't been in many games together recently to help me on that front. I'm not good enough at this game to say 'ur bad' to anyone with certainty.MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not going to sit here and say I've been anything remotely helpful this game, don't get me wrong. I just find it notable that your assessment of me appears to be largely or almost entirely based on my lack of activity rather than the content that I have been able to generate.G-Man wrote:Come on, now. You had five posts in the first 46 hours of Day 1 and only one of them was game-relevant. You generated lots of content in the lead-up to the deadline and afterward, but by my definition, you were AWOL for most of Day 1. I have to factor that into how I read the content you did provide after you got involved. That's the context of your participation. Doesn't mean it's leading me in the right direction but I have to analyze what you post and when you post it.MovingPictures07 wrote:I wouldn't say I'm a non-participant though; I've had content to analyze, don't you think?G-Man wrote:Can't say it's inherently suspicious because, as I said, I understand real life and losing focus due to other games (I mean, that was the whole reason I started posting in pictures in Economics) but when that's one of the few things to analyze you over, it weighs on my mind more. Are you suggesting that if the tables were reversed, and I had been all but a non-participant, only to blast in before the deadline and cause a CFD and then duck out until a few hours before the next deadline that you wouldn't analyze the hell out of it?MovingPictures07 wrote:So you think the timing of my activity is inherently suspicious?Spoiler: show
The problem I have with it is that it's crazy bold for a baddie to do that. But then I keep telling myself that small games like these are prime opportunities for baddies to something crazy bold. It's got me going in circles, really. I don't like it but it doesn't seem like rationale baddie behavior but it's a short game.... See?
Furthermore, what's the mafia motivation for me to specifically time my entrances to be near EoD? What's the benefit? Wouldn't it be better for me to exert more influence over the thread?
I think townies are generally more involved with CFDs than mafia members (generalizing of course) because mafia members don't know how to handle CFDs and don't want to bring unwanted attention to themselves. In Turf Wars, the townies successfully caught a mafia member with a CFD on Day 2, but proceeded to lose the game after spending lynch after lynch analyzing everyone's behavior surrounding the CFD and incorrectly making assumptions that didn't exist. All of the mafia team avoided talking about the CFD as much as possible and stayed in the background as town picked itself apart. I find that more common than mafia members actively taking risks to start CFDs.
I'm not saying you're timing your entrances. I always find it odd when people suddenly get really active as the deadline approached. Granted, I'm weird in that I can read along and post a little at a time throughout the work day, but it bugs me when it's like a ghost town and then a flurry of activity at the most crucial time. The benefit to coming in and poking holes in some theories, prodding others, and casting shade in new directions (or reinforcing shade in existing directions) is that you subtly help teammates evade suspicion or the lynch. Especially if one of your teammates is getting a share of the spotlight.
I disagree with your interpretation of opportunistic mafia-aligned behavior. Like you, I find it frustrating and inexplicable when players don't participate for the majority of a Day phase, so I realize my behavior is a bit hypocritical and completely less than ideal. However, to throw shade at me for it because you see it as some sort of strategy is where you lose me.
If I wanted to best help my teammates, if I were bad, I would prefer to be here constantly directing the thread, not playing the way I am right now. I am playing suboptimally regardless of my alignment. So that's where your argument falls apart for me.
I think one or two of the Soneji voters were trying to save someone (I think G-Man). Since Rico died I'm feeling either Elo or G-Man is the culprit.MovingPictures07 wrote:What changed your mind from Night 1 when you said you wanted to focus on the Soneji voters to this? What am I missing in your thought process?DFaraday wrote:Sorry I'm late, I was in the bathroom doing heroin. I mean...looking for peanut butter. For heroin. I mean Clairoin. I mean Claire.
Anyway, I don't think it's a coincidence that two of Rico's top suspects, G-Man and Elo (who incidentally were both up for lynching before that last second save), were here in the hatch with Rico and he turns up dead. WIFOM and all that, but right now I'd wager it's one of those two.
I wouldn't call it a scum tell but I typically feel better about him when he's active. The saving himself line pinged me more.Quin wrote:DFaraday:He has basically the same opinion as I do on G-Man's location claiming strategy. He suspects Eloh for her Soneji vote, which I can maybe read into more if we were to lynch Eloh today. He makes a good point against both Eloh and G-Man in that both of them were tying for the lynch before the CFD, and were both among Rico's top suspects. I find my placement on his rainbow list slightly contradictory, given his justification, so I have a mild ping on that.
Most of his content is stuff that is difficult to look into right now, so I'd be able to get a better read on him after an Eloh or G-Man flip. A tentative GTH scum-lean on DFaraday, but not enough for me to consider voting him today. I do have one post I'd like him to address:
How often do you find yourself in a game with Scotty, DF? Given how often he plays games, I imagine most people will have seen him both as a civ and as a baddie, so they'd be aware of his meta. I'm not sure I'd call inactivity a Scotty-scum-tell. Is his lack of presence a scum-tell for you?DFaraday wrote:Scotty is as low down as he is for trying to justify his Soneji vote as saving himself, and for otherwise having uncharacteristically very little presence in the game.
This pretty much says it all.Elohcin wrote:MP... I am claire for goodness sakes. Claire is not bad.