The Syndicate

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:59 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:16 pm idk who to suspect because i have paid 0% attention.

Also, serious question: Why haven't you suspected me yet? You always suspect me. Without fail. Every game.

But really, just give me something here. We need to know where your head is at if you are town and to be believed. Otherwise you're probably going to be lynched.

because it's unlikely you did the thing with ddl

imo

i also dind't have a sloonei "case"

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:42 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:46 pm Why do you think it could be me?

Somewhat POE really, because if it's not Dom that only leaves a few other options yourself included.

I need to dig into your ISO yet again, but the town read I have on you due to your genuine sounding posts and your DDL suspicion only take you so far.

Particularly, what is inspiring my recent declining confidence in you is the nature with which you suspected DDL. From what I recall reading when I was talking with Sloonei (and not focusing enough on anyone other than him and maybe dom), your suspicion of DDL was all very vague and gut-based, which would have been easy for you to fabricate if you were throwing some shade on a teammate. NT also made a good point which got me thinking as well.

Further, you have been going with the flow and coasting completely the last couple cycles which really concerns me. You don't seem interested in all in hunting for this last person and securing a win.

My suspicions are often gut-based and vague. I have a hard time pinpointing specific things when a player's entire ISO sounds bad to me.

If I've been "coasting" it's just that I've hardly had time to participate lately and have been posting like once or twice a day when I can, and there's not much content in the thread to go off anyway -- I do care about finding the last baddie, but I feel like we've had it narrowed down enough that I haven't had anything else to add. I do strongly believe it is Dom at this point.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:19 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:59 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:16 pm idk who to suspect because i have paid 0% attention.

Also, serious question: Why haven't you suspected me yet? You always suspect me. Without fail. Every game.

But really, just give me something here. We need to know where your head is at if you are town and to be believed. Otherwise you're probably going to be lynched.

because it's unlikely you did the thing with ddl

imo

i also dind't have a sloonei "case"

...Yeah, you're bad lol

then lynch me and end the game bc i'm civ and y'all are gonna lose

nutella: dom is bad because i say so

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:15 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:19 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:59 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:16 pm idk who to suspect because i have paid 0% attention.

Also, serious question: Why haven't you suspected me yet? You always suspect me. Without fail. Every game.

But really, just give me something here. We need to know where your head is at if you are town and to be believed. Otherwise you're probably going to be lynched.

because it's unlikely you did the thing with ddl

imo

i also dind't have a sloonei "case"

...Yeah, you're bad lol

What makes you say this?

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:17 pm then lynch me and end the game bc i'm civ and y'all are gonna lose

Whom should we lynch instead?

[mention]NewTraditionalist[/mention], what are you thinking?

You all are really making this as difficult as you can. There's no reason a thread should be this quiet with two baddie flips.

[mention]nutella[/mention], got a rainbow you're willing to share?

BBL

[mention]Dom[/mention], where are you voting?

hi hi! going through 25 pages. brb.

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:03 pm @Dom, where are you voting?

I'm going to try and read some players now.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:31 pm hi hi! going through 25 pages. brb.

OMG, you're a lifesaver. I'd die for another perspective at this point, especially yours. Looking forward to any thoughts you have.

Whatever works best for you, obviously, and I know you didn't ask for it but my recommendation would be to just ISO the remaining folks and look at vote records, unless you're seriously going to try tackling reading/skimming the whole thread. If so, then just wow. A commendable pursuit, for sure.

I'll try to be around in a couple of hours after I work some more and eat dinner; I'll answer whatever questions you have and would be happy to converse too if you're still around. I want to end this game now. We pretty much need to; though we technically still have 1 more mislynch before the game ends, I'd rather not push it there and I think everyone else would echo that sentiment.

Be around in a bit.

Dom wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:48 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:03 pm @Dom, where are you voting?

I'm going to try and read some players now.

Looking forward to checking out what you find.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:38 am Screw it I'll do a rainbow.

Light-to-moderate town read:
birdwithteeth11
Epignosis
sanmateo
Sloonei

Neutral or no read:
Dom
DrWilgy
MovingPictures07
NewTraditionalist
Serge

Light mafia read:
Spacedaisy
speedchuck

Moderate mafia read:
Dragon D. Luffy

Nutella--

This was your last rainbow. CAn you explain why you suddenly think I'm the best choice for a lynch today? You keep saying you don't buy that I'm busy etc.... You hardly have 20 more posts than me in the thread. That's not a huge difference and I didn't know the game had started at first.

That's another reason why I'm not bad: I didn't even show up in this game until after I think a phase and a half had passed. No way that would have happened if I had a team.

Nutella missed:
--DAy 1
--Day 4

And her DAy 3 vote was for DDL. after his fate was sealed. Although she did vote for him on D2.

On day 4, she said early in the day she would vote for serge and then came in and said MP "convinced" her of sloonei being bad.
I don't like that because she didn't vote and she hasn't addressed serge since.

well, it's past midnight here and i have work tomorrow early AM but I read through the entire thread. reading individual posts of the survivors doesnt really give much context or clues and I'd probably just be a burden (i did skip a bit of Epi and LC drama at the beginning).

It's extremely hard to read Serge and NewTraditionaluist due to the low post counts, but I don't get negative feelings from Dom or MP.

nutella....I feel a lot of posts and reactions were insincere. I am voting for them based on intuition mostly at this point, because I cant really go through and make a case for her.

I genuinely feel Dom's not likely to be the last scum, as much as I feel MP seems to be Town with his musings, and questioning and general emotions.

my list from bad to good goes something like this
nutella
NewTraditionalist
Serge
Dom
MP
me of course

i'll go get ready for bed then get on my phone and see if I can offer some more substance to my vote in time, but I wanted to offer SOME input before deadline. I'll be able to be more active now that I'm caught up in the future

I'm moving my vote to nutella.

Dom wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:00 pm Nutella missed:
--DAy 1
--Day 4

And her DAy 3 vote was for DDL. after his fate was sealed. Although she did vote for him on D2.

On day 4, she said early in the day she would vote for serge and then came in and said MP "convinced" her of sloonei being bad.
I don't like that because she didn't vote and she hasn't addressed serge since.

I do agree that she's been coasting for far too long based on her supposed suspicion of DDL, wherein that suspicion wasn't even anything majorly substantial to begin with. It'd be nice if she can answer more to that because the explanations she's recently given are pretty weak.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:23 pm well, it's past midnight here and i have work tomorrow early AM but I read through the entire thread. reading individual posts of the survivors doesnt really give much context or clues and I'd probably just be a burden (i did skip a bit of Epi and LC drama at the beginning).

It's extremely hard to read Serge and NewTraditionaluist due to the low post counts, but I don't get negative feelings from Dom or MP.

nutella....I feel a lot of posts and reactions were insincere. I am voting for them based on intuition mostly at this point, because I cant really go through and make a case for her.

I genuinely feel Dom's not likely to be the last scum, as much as I feel MP seems to be Town with his musings, and questioning and general emotions.

my list from bad to good goes something like this
nutella
NewTraditionalist
Serge
Dom
MP
me of course

i'll go get ready for bed then get on my phone and see if I can offer some more substance to my vote in time, but I wanted to offer SOME input before deadline. I'll be able to be more active now that I'm caught up in the future

Holy cow, you're a fast reader.

I appreciate your input, thanks.

Honestly, I've had my doubts about nutella off and on all game but she felt pretty sincere to me during the end of N1.

With that said, I do feel like many of us have been giving her too much credit for her suspicion of DDL. It's abundantly clear that sanmateo was bussing DDL hard, so why is it so hard to believe that nutella was bussing him as well? Furthermore, she was not the first person to suspect him and, as I pointed earlier, her suspicion of her was very vague and lacking detail. It was even lacking passion as well IMO, despite the fact that she labeled him a 'top suspect', which if I recall correctly Sloonei criticized her for earlier in the game as well.

Further, as the game has progressed the past couple of cycles, her posts have completely lacked any purpose or spark to them. Dom's have similarly been underwhelming but underlying them is this very consistent feeling of honesty, which is why I started interrogating Sloonei pretty heavily last cycle.

I am also increasingly reminded of other games I played and hosted, most notably Economics for the former and Parks and Recreation for the latter, where the low hanging fruit townie was specifically set up to be around for MYLO. And despite incredible efforts on the part of town to investigate everyone otherwise, that townie was still mislynched to end the game both times. In this game, I feel like Dom is that townie, and nutella is the only player remaining that I think would fit the profile of leaving him around for the express purpose of being mislynched. I previously thought that might have been Sloonei, to no avail. It also explains why I was left alive in favor of Daisy because I was jumping up and down wanting to lynch Dom before the Night concluded.

Lastly, I'm in part trusting your judgment. I still suspect Dom and I'm pretty torn between the two, but I think even before you said anything I was starting to come around to a nutella lynch. Let's do this.

I'd love to hear what nutella has to say to any of this. When putting Dom to the fire, at least he has been able to attempt something. I've not seen anything from nutella in cycles.

FWIW, I'll eat a hat if either NT or Serge are bad. Especially NT, slightly less confident about Serge, but still firm enough to make such a statement (though I have said something to this effect before and been wrong, lol). That said, I'm feeling pretty confident about them despite relatively low content.

That also triggered red flags with me. Casting throwaway voted to scum team mates is something I've done often early on to confuse people with the pattern of my voting. Just because she voted for DDL on day 2 doesn't clear her. I also felt her posts about missing the deadline because it was brought earlier pretty fake. I mean sorry but when I'm casting a vote and not caught up with the thread it's the newest posts I'd be most interested in, not the oldest. I felt the reaction was staged, how she could have "saved" a townie, etc.

Why are you confident about NT?

This is where my beef with nutella develops:

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:33 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:04 am

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:55 pm Well clearly your process is flawed As was mentioned earlier, you put plenty of effort into giving examples of games where LC was bad and behaved similarly, but never proved that he doesn't also behave that way when civ. Bad logic, bad process.

what are some non-speedchuck reads you have?

As I said, I find DDL suspicious for his style so far; he doesn't come across as genuine at all. And fwiw, I think my suspicion of speedchuck has actually waned a little bit from his posts since the lynch ended. He's probably second to DDL on my list now but still a pretty strong suspicion; I just don't want to end up tunneling blindly.

I'm not sure what to think of MP and Daisy, and I think it's fairly likely that one of them is bad, but honestly it's so hard to tell. MP and speedchuck are mutually exclusive IMO though -- even though MP switched his vote, his highkey pursuit of speedchuck for much of the day could not have been bussing. I could see a bad Daisy.

Oh, and I forgot that when I wrote the post that got lost while on the bus earlier I was going to say something about NewTraditionalist since his first post drew attention. It read to me like either a newbie with btsc teammates or a particularly confident transplant from another site (which I gather he is but idk who knows him). The way he reacted back with a no-u-ish vote without so much as blinking made me lean toward the latter. I look forward to seeing more from him.

That's an incredibly easy suspicion to fabricate. She never even really elaborated upon it at any point. At least with some of her other thoughts/suspects she was able to point to specific points, such as in this very same post where she was talking about my pursuit of speedchuck for example. She never did that for DDL, who was her so-called top suspect in the rainbow list posted directly thereafter.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:52 pm That also triggered red flags with me. Casting throwaway voted to scum team mates is something I've done often early on to confuse people with the pattern of my voting. Just because she voted for DDL on day 2 doesn't clear her. I also felt her posts about missing the deadline because it was brought earlier pretty fake. I mean sorry but when I'm casting a vote and not caught up with the thread it's the newest posts I'd be most interested in, not the oldest. I felt the reaction was staged, how she could have "saved" a townie, etc.

That's really interesting, I interpreted it the exact opposite, but honestly I'm pretty awful at assessing honesty and tone. You make a good point, especially since now that you mention it, I've faked that exact reaction before as bad and there are some parallels. Now that I'm thinking about it, I also would say that when I'm bad I tend to "guilt" the thread more than motivate it, if that makes sense, and nutella's post where she basically said "wow way to go guys" was very guilt-laden.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:53 pm Why are you confident about NT?

I know him IRL and we've played mafia and some other games in person. This is his first game in this setting.

In part it's because I actually think he has a tell IRL and I fully expected it to translate online if he were bad; I see absolutely no evidence of it. (I'm not exactly keen to discuss what I think that tell is so he doesn't know, lol.)

I also thought the way he responded to Wilgy earlier in the game with the playful "here's a vote" seemed very sincere, and his subsequent posts also seemed like someone genuinely trying to adapt from IRL to this game.

He's a smart MFer though, so I feel like if he had a team his play would be much more grounded.

Lastly, I like that when he started finally finding his footing directly after Day 4, he dug right in and immediately threw a list of reads at me when I requested them. He then continued to do some digging and didn't give a shit about how inconsistent or not he was being, moving me from being his only suspect to his top town read for very clear, substantiated reasons, as well as looking into vote history. It all looked organic to me.

I'd be incredibly shocked if he were our last person, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time I'd be this wrong.

Yes, I'm sceptical and don't trust anyone even Jay

Something else that's been bugging me increasingly after looking at nutella's ISO again, this time from recently (Night 4):

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:48 pm NT, I'm not bad but good to see you analyzing stuff. I suspected DDL longer and harder than anyone.

I'm inclined to believe Dom is most likely bad here. Could also see serge or perhaps even NT, but I think we should try Dom and see because I am not buying his defenses and I know he's been busy but he hasn't looked much like his usual town style.

First, I would say this is a bit of a misrepresentation. Not exactly false, but there's some exaggeration in there for sure.

Second, this is stated in "baddie thinking". Like, 'why should I be a suspect? look! I suspected DDL more than anyone else!' as if bussing isn't a thing at all, or that we witnessed at all this game. There's just something about the way it's stated that reads oddly if nutella is town IMO, like if someone asked me to explain how I'm town I would say I led a lynch on sanmateo; I wouldn't say I suspected sanmateo better than everyone else. It's the "longer and harder than anyone" phrase that bothers me I think.

Another random observation:

Every single time nutella has been confronted with suspicion this game, her response is always "Why?" essentially. Contrast that with Dom's "I'm town guys, please believe me" response.

It bothers you by taking credit away from your efforts

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:14 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:42 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:46 pm Why do you think it could be me?

Somewhat POE really, because if it's not Dom that only leaves a few other options yourself included.

I need to dig into your ISO yet again, but the town read I have on you due to your genuine sounding posts and your DDL suspicion only take you so far.

Particularly, what is inspiring my recent declining confidence in you is the nature with which you suspected DDL. From what I recall reading when I was talking with Sloonei (and not focusing enough on anyone other than him and maybe dom), your suspicion of DDL was all very vague and gut-based, which would have been easy for you to fabricate if you were throwing some shade on a teammate. NT also made a good point which got me thinking as well.

Further, you have been going with the flow and coasting completely the last couple cycles which really concerns me. You don't seem interested in all in hunting for this last person and securing a win.

My suspicions are often gut-based and vague. I have a hard time pinpointing specific things when a player's entire ISO sounds bad to me.

If I've been "coasting" it's just that I've hardly had time to participate lately and have been posting like once or twice a day when I can, and there's not much content in the thread to go off anyway -- I do care about finding the last baddie, but I feel like we've had it narrowed down enough that I haven't had anything else to add. I do strongly believe it is Dom at this point.

Also, what does this even mean?

Thanks for your clarification on NT. I'll see what happens after this lynch and possible night phase before reevaluating him.

Do you have as much confidence in Serge?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm It bothers you by taking credit away from your efforts

Haha, nah, I would say I've probably played better than I normally do as town, which is typically a trainwreck, but it's not like I've been supatown or anything. I did lead a lynch on Sloonei after all.

dunya, if BWT was bad and you replaced him, I'm going to go ballistic.

She mentions being busy a lot as a possible excuse but then says Dom has been busy yet looks unlike his town meta.

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:09 pm dunya, if BWT was bad and you replaced him, I'm going to go ballistic.

I'll buy you a beer if I'm not town. Literally fly over to your part of the world and buy you a frigging beer

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:07 pm Thanks for your clarification on NT. I'll see what happens after this lynch and possible night phase before reevaluating him.

Do you have as much confidence in Serge?

Hopefully that doesn't have to happen. If this game doesn't end after this phase I'm going to lose it.

Not quite. I'd say I still feel pretty good about him being town, but because his post history is lacking, it's based at least half on this post being genuine as fuck:
Other than that, it's really hard to get a feel for much else, but I do feel his "I suspect Sloonei" posts were genuine as well, especially for someone so out of the loop with the game. Seemed like a very out-of-left-field suspicion to make at the time since literally no one was eyeing Sloonei at that time.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:09 pm She mentions being busy a lot as a possible excuse but then says Dom has been busy yet looks unlike his town meta.

Yeah, that's what worries me and got me tinfoiling Sloonei last cycle too; I feel like I'm being set up by someone to lynch Dom. Her reasons for suspecting him could be compatible with that because they're weak/vague and a bit contradictory.

That exact Serge post put him ahead of NT for me on my suspect list.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:11 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:09 pm dunya, if BWT was bad and you replaced him, I'm going to go ballistic.

I'll buy you a beer if I'm not town. Literally fly over to your part of the world and buy you a frigging beer

I'm cool with that.

I know BWT IRL as well and was already feeling really good about him being town from the very beginning of the game, but there is an itch at the back of my mind, have to admit. Hard to keep the paranoia from talking occasionally.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:14 pm That exact Serge post put him ahead of NT for me on my suspect list.

I assume you mean you thought it was genuine as well?

That's the post that really made me reevaluate a Serge lynch, combined with the fact that he self-voted. It really reads like he fully expected to go down, and I just can't see the final scumster doing something like that.

I'm feeling relatively confident about a nutella lynch at the moment actually.

I suppose it is possible Dom is bad, but if so then he is really good at faking being genuine... I do have my nagging doubts. Hopefully nutella can come in and address some concerns.

I don't even want to think about it being dunya, NT, or Serge, so I'm not going to.

I guess I'll dig into Dom's ISO right now just to make sure I'm giving a fair shake... even though I'm sure I've skimmed through every living player's ISO like 5 times by now.

I know it's hard to believe a townie would read 25 pages this far into the game...but I'm committed as a replacement to make a genuine effort otherwise I'd be harming the game.

Plus townies lost last game I played so I want to score a win on my score sheet over here.

I'll also literally fly to your part of the world and kick you if you're not town MP

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:19 pm I know it's hard to believe a townie would read 25 pages this far into the game...but I'm committed as a replacement to make a genuine effort otherwise I'd be harming the game.

Plus townies lost last game I played so I want to score a win on my score sheet over here.

I'll also literally fly to your part of the world and kick you if you're not town MP

I cannot express how much I appreciate it; as a townie I feel I'm 10,000x times better at this game when I have other people to bounce my ridiculous thoughts off of, so I'm just thankful to have that.

Damn straight, townies don't win enough around here anyway.

I can assure you I'm town, though I really, really wish I wasn't.

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:16 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:14 pm That exact Serge post put him ahead of NT for me on my suspect list.

I assume you mean you thought it was genuine as well?

That's the post that really made me reevaluate a Serge lynch, combined with the fact that he self-voted. It really reads like he fully expected to go down, and I just can't see the final scumster doing something like that.

Yes I thought it was genuine. It's between nutella and NT for me I think. I'll also reevaluate Dom with NT if need be but I didn't feel it.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:25 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:29 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:03 pm Judge the process, not the result.

That's not how this works. If you like Epi's process, perhaps you have something to say about what he logically concluded?

The result, if valid, will occur with the lynch. Epi's process hasn't resulted yet, and won't result in anything if everybody (like you) ignore it.

Eh I just wanted to use Epi's phrase against him.

Point is, the way he is thinking looks legit to me.

That doesn't mean I agree with it tho.

id on't like htis one bit

someone wants to appear to agree with epi without any of the actions associated with it.

Well, here's the first real thing in Dom's ISO that can be analyzed in some way I think. One could give Dom some beef with the fact that DDL was already getting heat in some way with criticisms not all too different from this at the time. However, if Dom's inactivity and unfamiliarity of the game are taken at face value, one could also give Dom some minor townie points for at least making a specific observation which led to a read of DDL, which then defined his subsequent behavior/vote. It's technically more than what nutella gave us, which was just "not genuine at all".