Phenon: Origins Mafia [END]

[Echo]

I'm voting Bravo. Be back later.

[Spooky Ghost]

I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie... so unless there are two baddies (again, not feeling it, but possible), unfortunately I think it will be a mislynch. Nonetheless, this makes sense to me. I'm willing to vote Delta just because it makes 0 sense to leave an inactive player in LYLO because that's a death sentence.

we are probably already in lylo.

[Spooky Ghost]

I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.

Oh. Huh.......

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

Preparing for the worst case scenario is great.

Here's the thing though. How probable is it that we have two mafia members left versus one? I don't think it's probable.

There is absolutely no downside to voting under the assumption that there are two baddies left. If there's actually a solo baddie left and we pick the wrong one then we get one more chance tomorrow. That's what I've been saying. The probability depends on whether or not we were correct about Juliet and to a lesser extent Kilo, and I want to hope that we were, I really do, but if we weren't correct then we risk mafia on dunking us today.

[Spooky Ghost]

Please tell me more about the Bravo is bad theory

[Echo]

Okay, nevermind, I'll be here for a little while after all, but I'm multitasking and I'll randomly vanish at some point to return in the evening FYI.

[Echo]

I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie... so unless there are two baddies (again, not feeling it, but possible), unfortunately I think it will be a mislynch. Nonetheless, this makes sense to me. I'm willing to vote Delta just because it makes 0 sense to leave an inactive player in LYLO because that's a death sentence.

we are probably already in lylo.

Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.

[Echo]

I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.

Oh. Huh.......

1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

Preparing for the worst case scenario is great.

Here's the thing though. How probable is it that we have two mafia members left versus one? I don't think it's probable.

There is absolutely no downside to voting under the assumption that there are two baddies left. If there's actually a solo baddie left and we pick the wrong one then we get one more chance tomorrow. That's what I've been saying. The probability depends on whether or not we were correct about Juliet and to a lesser extent Kilo, and I want to hope that we were, I really do, but if we weren't correct then we risk mafia on dunking us today.

There is a downside though, right, since Delta is inactive? It means that would normally be a 2-1 LYLO is in essence a 1-1 standoff. And usually when I've played in games 1-1 standoff means either the baddie wins automatically or it's a coin-toss. That's essentially game over.

I'd love to get the game over with today, I'm with you. Don't get me wrong. But what do we do about Delta if we're wrong today and there is only 1 baddie left? Then we're screwed.

All of that said, I think it's more important to think about casing each other as much as possible right now. I've felt like all of you (except Delta) are heavily town all game, but now here we are. At least 1 of you isn't.

[Lunatella]

Hotel going after Bravo is a bad look imo...

But the numbers still support a Delta lynch. I'm not moving.

[Echo]

Please tell me more about the Bravo is bad theory

Well, think about it. We're essentially at endgame now, right? What's the best course of action for a mafia member to take right now, especially if that mafia member is a lone baddie and that baddie is sitting in a good position (deepwolf)? 9 times out of 10, the best course of action is to go with the path of least resistance. I've been willing to townread Bravo all game because 1) I know who is behind the sock (it's evident, at least to me), and 2) he's been putting forth an incredible effort to solve the game.

But it suddenly hit me reading his most recent giant post, what is he really solving? He's literally just going with the flow, and it's the endgame. Townies freak out during the endgame. That's what you're doing. That's what Golf is doing. That's what I'm doing right now. Bravo's content to just go with the flow that Golf presented, and if Delta is town and he is a lone baddie, then he'll just kill you or Golf and convince the other person to vote for me tomorrow. He's not finding any reasons for any of us to be bad, just setting up the easiest path to victory. The Bravo I know would be trying as hard as possible to see every conceivable perspective of each person being bad; he'd be garnering reactions and would be cautious of townclearing anyone until the very end. He may have been chugging out ISOs and such earlier in the game, and he says it's all about "reassessment", but what is he doing right now, when the sense of urgency should be at the maximum? Nothing.

[Echo]

Hotel going after Bravo is a bad look imo...

But the numbers still support a Delta lynch. I'm not moving.

How the hell is it a bad look? Why isn't anyone assessing Bravo at all? He isn't even doing anything. Meanwhile, I'm the one that we all know is going to be lynched in a final LYLO situation if we only have a lone baddie and this goes onto another phase because somehow I became the default along the line, and you and Alpha are at each other's throats. Bravo's post is classic sit back and watch baddie.

[Echo]

I've really, really thought you were town all game, Golf, but now even you're starting to make me wonder. I agree with your logic and can understand why you would go for a Delta lynch for that reason, but can you really fathom no reason that I would be a townie right now trying to reassess Bravo? I also am starting to find your line of attack of Alpha a bit dubious even though he should be subject for reassessment as well.

I was actually starting to think Alpha looked bad as I initially caught up, but it's that post of Bravo's that really caught my eye. That's not a townie Bravo post. Not in any universe.

[Spooky Ghost]

Since when am I not considering Golf as mafia? Why are you putting words in my mouth?

It just seems like you aren't. We're at a crucial moment in the game and it's important to consider everyone as suspects.

we are probably already in lylo.

Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.

I actually just have 0 faith in my own scum hunting ability... And trusting that we were right about something uncertain from the past is a good way to get tricked in the future.

[Echo]

Since when am I not considering Golf as mafia? Why are you putting words in my mouth?

It just seems like you aren't. We're at a crucial moment in the game and it's important to consider everyone as suspects.

we are probably already in lylo.

Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.

I actually just have 0 faith in my own scum hunting ability... And trusting that we were right about something uncertain from the past is a good way to get tricked in the future.

Well, I don't want to take away from the spirit of the game being sockpuppet, but I knew instantly who Golf was from the moment the game started and it's a person I know better than nearly everyone else here. And everything Golf has done has seemed genuine AF. But I have been wondering off and on all game whether Golf is bad, I just haven't really had the time or the distinct motivation to do so before this critical point in time. I'm still considering it, but I'm feeling Bravo being bad right now.

And if there are 2 baddies, like you're suggesting, then if Bravo is 1... I'm not sure who the second one is, but I suppose it could be Golf or Delta for that matter.

[Echo]

If Delta could just play the fucking game they signed up for or get replaced, that'd be ideal for us all, but as it stands we have an elephant in the room that's causing a difficult situation. IMO we really need to start lynching inactives earlier at this site, but that's a discussion for another time and place.

[Echo]

A current rainbow:

Alpha

Golf

Delta

Bravo

[Echo]

If Delta could just play the fucking game they signed up for or get replaced, that'd be ideal for us all, but as it stands we have an elephant in the room that's causing a difficult situation. IMO we really need to start lynching inactives earlier at this site, but that's a discussion for another time and place.

I just realized I should add to this, I apologize, sprityo -- this is not at all a comment on you or your game. This is an awesome game. I love it. Inactive situations happen. I know firsthand how difficult it is to deal with them from a host's perspective, so I hope you don't take this as a slight on your hosting ability.

[Echo]

Thinking on it, I still stand by my Bravo assessment. He's spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything. He should die.

[Echo]

I'm looking at Bravo's ISO as we speak and if we work with the assumption that Echo and Juliet are bad as well, Bravo looks bad Day 1 with respect to Juliet.

[Echo]

People I wouldn't vote for today: Alpha, India, Juliet

Re: Juliet, I've appreciated that the rapping exists at all. In light of the discussion of ways to make life harder for the disguiser, such as adopting a distinctive style which will be more difficult for an interloper to replicate, the rapping method seems like an applicable effort.

I can at least agree that the hunting effort contained within the rapping is limited.

[Echo]

And here are Bravo's interactions with Echo:

We only get information if the Oracle gets nightkilled. As information-starved letters, the clear path is to out the Oracle so that they can be nightkilled. I am the Oracle.

I don't get it. Why claim that right now?

Why not now?

I question the strategic utility and the sensibility of blurting the claim as you did.

I think it's less likely the Mafia will kill me because they don't want info out there. Also, it was a little spontaneous. Tell me about a better way for more strategic utility.

The spontaneity I won't argue. The first thing you said there is my concern. If that comes to fruition the role is useless, right?

This is a weaksauce way to express a concern. It's not particularly telling, but I could see teammates talking to each other ITT like this.

[Echo]

A current rainbow:

Alpha

Golf

Delta

Bravo

Actually, switch Golf and Delta if there's only 1 baddie.

If there's 2, keep it as is.

[Echo]

Another thing that bothers me about Bravo now that I think about it is he's basically either soft or hard-pocketed all three of us throughout the game, yeah? He's at least soft town-read Golf and me all game. And he's NEVER expressed a single concern about Alpha. Explains why we're all still here.

Bravo is bad.

[Spooky Ghost]

Alright so whether this was your intent or not I feel a little less sure that GH is the baddie pair. Which makes our scenario much more complicated and a little more hopeful than I hoped/feared.

[Spooky Ghost]

[mention]Golf[/mention] what are your thoughts on bravo?

[Spooky Ghost]

I feel comforted by the fact that I am going to feel like an idiot no matter who the mafia is.

[Spooky Ghost]

If Hotel is being authentic about their theory about pushing Bravo and isn't just gonna do a "just kidding" vote at the last minute then.... Maybe there really is a solo mafia?

[Spooky Ghost]

So to expand on this now: players will be given a sockpuppet account, the names currently will just be the phonetic alphabet, with portraits being the corresponding character. This can change if people are interested in submitting a portrait of a scientist/bodyguard/normal person for themselves. (It doesn’t have to be good I promise)

We are all idiots and fools. We could have had interesting and unique avatars this entire time. We could..... spell out fuck.

[Echo]

Alright so whether this was your intent or not I feel a little less sure that GH is the baddie pair. Which makes our scenario much more complicated and a little more hopeful than I hoped/feared.

The fact that you think/thought this was some sort of concerted attempt at a powerplay makes me believe you are sincere, else I would be questioning you harder right now as well. Let's win this thing.

[Echo]

I feel comforted by the fact that I am going to feel like an idiot no matter who the mafia is.

I know, right? Excellent game to whoever you are.

[Echo]

If Hotel is being authentic about their theory about pushing Bravo and isn't just gonna do a "just kidding" vote at the last minute then.... Maybe there really is a solo mafia?

It's certainly possible I'll switch my vote, but not because of "just kidding". I really want to see what Bravo has to say. Despite the numbers/math due to having an inactive, I really want to keep my vote there unless he or someone else convinces me otherwise. Right now I want to see Bravo die; I can't imagine that changing.

[Echo]

Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

[Spooky Ghost]

Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

I need to think about this.

If Bravo is mafia then he has pulled wool over our eyes big time which is well within his skillset.... Probably?

I think the kills make a little more sense with the context that Golf is who she appears to be, if she is mafia. I've known that player to as mafia choose to kill less active players instead of confirmed/trusted players, or more active players, to keep the game interesting. Which would explain why Charlie died instead of me or Bravo.

Although..... Those kills would also be smart for a mafia bravo now that I think about it....... because Charlie was close to confirmed civ and I've been following along with Bravo's stuff fairly closely...........

[Spooky Ghost]

Today:
Alpha has accused (almost) everyone
Bravo has accused Golf
Delta has accused no one
Golf has accused Delta and Alpha
Hotel has accused Delta and Bravo

I don't see an easily compatible pair other than Golf and Hotel, but if they're mafia then Hotel is going through unnecessary hoops to play around with us because in that scenario even if Bravo and I do our best to win we can only win by winning two ties in a row. Maybe that certainty has given hotel the confidence and security to accuse bravo with relatively little consequence, because as mentioned.... if the mafia is a pair of active players at this point of the game, the worst case scenario isn't actually very bad for them, given a 75% chance to win

I think if we have a pair of mafia left then it has to be team Hotel Golf. I also.... am no longer sure that we're even looking for a pair.

[Julinook]

I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.

The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.

[Julinook]

I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie...

Why?

[Julinook]

This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".

Hell no.

First of all, what you've done in this accusation is essentially disparage the POE strategy as suspicious without naming it. I didn't just lazily say "m'kay, everyone is town so lynch the lurker". I have put a crap load of analytic content into this thread which describes my reads and how they align to each theory of the game I've entertained. I have more reasons to view the non-Delta players as civilians than I do Delta: this is POE. After Delta, I have the fewest reasons to read you as a civilian.

Recall this:

That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.

You were aware of my approach and stated your agreement with it. What is the sudden beef you have?

Second of all, regarding the highlighted portion at the top, fuck that shit. How dare you. I have been assessing and reassessing everything I can think of in this game throughout the game. I have been quieter this day phase because it's Christmas Eve and, as I said, I have been away.

[Spooky Ghost]

We have an hour left on maybe the most busy of the year. We need to cobble together some kind of coordination. :x

[Julinook]

Think about it. Alpha and Golf up in here freaking out over the direction of the lynch. Bravo has been in cruise control mode. If there's only one baddie, it's him, and he's content to let us bring each other down.

Gross.

I don't know how you can really believe that I have been in "cruise control mode" given the work I have done to investigate every angle. And when I had the chance today, I observed the discussion at hand between Alpha and Golf and stated my perspectives on it. This reeks of opportunism to take advantage of my inability to be deeply involved this phase.

[Julinook]

We have an hour left on maybe the most busy of the year. We need to cobble together some kind of coordination. :x

I'm here until the deadline. I know you've said it already over a few posts, but please summarize quickly your grievances with a Delta lynch and state your preferred alternative.

[Spooky Ghost]

Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

[Julinook]

Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

I still lean toward a lone baddie. I would lynch Hotel before Golf. I prefer Delta.

[Julinook]

Hotel going after Bravo is a bad look imo...

But the numbers still support a Delta lynch. I'm not moving.

How the hell is it a bad look? Why isn't anyone assessing Bravo at all? He isn't even doing anything. Meanwhile, I'm the one that we all know is going to be lynched in a final LYLO situation if we only have a lone baddie and this goes onto another phase because somehow I became the default along the line, and you and Alpha are at each other's throats. Bravo's post is classic sit back and watch baddie.

This accusation keeps happening and I haven't seen a real support for it which doesn't rely upon my being quiet this phase. It's crap and I don't believe it.

What exactly does good Bravo do in this situation which you feel has not occurred?

[Julinook]

Thinking on it, I still stand by my Bravo assessment. He's spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything. He should die.

"spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything"

Again I don't know how a human can read this message board forum Mafia game thread and really come to that conclusion.

[Spooky Ghost]

Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

[Spooky Ghost]

Can you summarize the argument for lynching Delta? I feel like I'm missing something

[Echo]

Crap, sorry for cutting this so close. Got busier than anticipated.

[Echo]

Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

I need to think about this.

If Bravo is mafia then he has pulled wool over our eyes big time which is well within his skillset.... Probably?

I think the kills make a little more sense with the context that Golf is who she appears to be, if she is mafia. I've known that player to as mafia choose to kill less active players instead of confirmed/trusted players, or more active players, to keep the game interesting. Which would explain why Charlie died instead of me or Bravo.

Although..... Those kills would also be smart for a mafia bravo now that I think about it....... because Charlie was close to confirmed civ and I've been following along with Bravo's stuff fairly closely...........

Yeah, I thought the kills were Bravo-compatible, even if the Foxtrot one is still a bit weird.

[Echo]

Today:
Alpha has accused (almost) everyone
Bravo has accused Golf
Delta has accused no one
Golf has accused Delta and Alpha
Hotel has accused Delta and Bravo

I don't see an easily compatible pair other than Golf and Hotel, but if they're mafia then Hotel is going through unnecessary hoops to play around with us because in that scenario even if Bravo and I do our best to win we can only win by winning two ties in a row. Maybe that certainty has given hotel the confidence and security to accuse bravo with relatively little consequence, because as mentioned.... if the mafia is a pair of active players at this point of the game, the worst case scenario isn't actually very bad for them, given a 75% chance to win

I think if we have a pair of mafia left then it has to be team Hotel Golf. I also.... am no longer sure that we're even looking for a pair.

Well, I know I'm not bad, but also in my experience mafia members don't make grand plays like this either -- so even if there are 2 baddies left, which I don't think is the case but is surely possible, I wouldn't expect them to be making some super brazen power play.

[Spooky Ghost]

I've switched my vote to Hotel. I'm certain this is the correct choice. If you still think Delta is the best choice then I understand. If we already have a solo wolf or we currently have a living wolf who is partnered with Delta then I think lynching Delta is an okay choice that won't lead to disaster, and if Golf and Hotel are actually the mafia together then I get to have the satisfaction of being right, which in some ways is almost better than a winners banner. B)

[Echo]

I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.

The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.

I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?